Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

Will We Hold It Wednesday – Dow 18,000 Edition

SPY  5  MINUTEWhere's the volume?  

We can't keep running up on no volume and not expect to have a nasty sell-off – that just isn't the way things work.  In yesterday's Live Trading Webinar, we discussed our aggressive hedge adjustments even as the market drove on to even higher highs.  Of course, that's when buying protection is the cheapest but most traders are reactive and not proactive – so we get to bargain shop by acting a bit ahead of the curve.  

Yellen didn't do too much to boost the markets yesterday, but she gets another crack at Congress this morning to refine her statements.  On the whole, she certainly put off expectations of the Fed raising rates until about September and, even then, only if the economy continues to improve – which is a questionable notion at this point (see last week's posts on the economy).  

Still, we've been threading the needle and playing both sides of the market.  At the beginning of the month, for example, while we were still giving out free trade ideas - we gave you a combo play on oil, which was one of our Top Trade Alerts (Members Only) using 10 long USO 2016 12 calls for $5.75 ($5,750) and selling 10 of the 2016 $22 puts for $5.65 ($5,650) for net $100 out of pocket.  Yesterday USO closed at $18.04 and the combo closed at net $2,260 – up $2,160 (2,160%) in less than 3 weeks – you're welcome.  

Of course, that's nothing compared to our more aggressive call to go long on Natural Gas Futures (/NG) at $2.69.  Natural Gas finished the day at $2.90 and, at $100 per penny, per contract, that's a nice $3,100 gain on each contract.  We're done with Natural Gas longs but we still have a substantial interest on USO longs in 3 of our 4 Member Portfolios, though we did just stop out of longs on the Oil Futures (/CL) at $49.50 in this morning's chat ahead of inventories.  

Chinese stocks came back from a week-long holiday (New Year's) and fell off into the close, led lower by a nasty drop in the Macau Casinos, which are looking at a 50% drop in revenues compared to last year as China cracks down on the corruption that made Macau the World's best place to launder money.  Real Estate, Banking and Consumer Stocks also fared poorly in China but their PMI came in at 50.1, which is 0.2 better than contracting – so that's all you'll hear about today from the MSM, which is pushing Retail Investors to BUYBUYBUY all the crap stocks the Banksters are trying to unload.  

“The PMI number was slightly better than expected but investors are still nervous that the economy is not strong enough to generate topline growth,” said Khiem Do, who helps oversee about $60 billion as Hong Kong-based head of Asian multi-asset strategy at Baring Asset Management Ltd. “There’s a gap of perceptions between investors and the government.   The economy needs more monetary easing measures.”

Seriously – that's what he said!  More free money, please…  That's all they ever say, that's the only way the Global Economy works at the moment, more free money.  As noted yesterday, since Lehman went bust, a Central Bankster has robbed their country by lowering rates or adding stimulus, giving bailouts to the rich on an average of once every three days!   In doing so, we have – so far – run up $57,000,000,000,000 in additional debt, with the AVERAGE country on this planet now two years of their GDP in debt.  

As noted by Jim Grant yesterday, in the end, the consequences of the central bank's "distortion" of interest rates "will not be wholesome.  This virus of radical monetary policy is now coursing through the political bloodstream. There's no going back, at least not for the medium term.  The world has come to expect that central banks will be there in force in unprecedented ways with the greatest improvisations come times of trouble…  At some point there will be trouble in the form of a bear market or a recession."

Grant, as usual, likes his gold.  I think Yellen has made it clear enough our day of reckoning is still a couple of quarters away so, meanwhile, we'll continue to go with the flow – but we're building up our hedges – just in case. 

Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!

Comments (reverse order)

    You must be logged in to make a comment.
    You can sign up for a membership or log in

    Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

    Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

  1. Oil Lines

    R3 – 51.83
    R2 – 51.08
    R1 – 50.18
    PP – 49.43
    S1 – 48.53
    S2 – 47.78
    S3 – 46.88

  2. CRIS – Curis Prices Public Offering of Common Stock at $2.75 per share.

  3. Good morning. Missed the morning fun. Had to sleep. Brent made a very nice move in the last 4 hours. Up 1 dollar from 58.40 to 59.40. /NSEA for those that can.

  4. Good Morning!

  5. Phil / Nat Gas – you mentioned in morning post you are done playing long natural gas. I have an Apr 13/15 BCS. Should I look to get out?   

  6. That's a UNG bcs

  7. Your call on KONA might payoff today.  Nice job Phil.

    "I think KONA may get whacked as well.  They report 2/24 and are way up from $14 last years Q1."

    March $25 puts are $1.70 so let's buy 5 in the STP for fun. 

  8. Good morning all. I have had a fairly quiet morning of trading making a few dollars playing oil betrween 49.25 and 49.65 , going long at 49.25 and short at 49.60 for a small gain so far of 490 in one account and 680 in the other. I also did a quick long on NG at 2.90, but I'm out of that now as it could drop as easily as it could pop. I guess it may be time to look at my long term stuff while I wait for the inventories to give m direction on futures trades. Unless of course we see an opportunity ahead of that on a spike one way or the other.

  9. CBI beats:  Chicago Bridge & Iron tops 4Q profit forecasts. Stock up 7.0%

  10. Four oil ministers have now issued statements trying to jawbone up the price of oil.  On the sidelines for now.

  11. Good morning Phil and everyone,

    Back from a very nice vacation in India. Lucky to miss all the snow here. Indian markets are going to explode (don;t know which way) on Saturday as it is budget day and the markets are open. Lot of premium in F&O segment. Real estate prices continue to rise in India.

    After coming back the only website to get all the news is philstockworld :-)


  12. JBUR/CBI

    NICE!  I followed your call on that.  Thanks.

  13. Nice one Jbur.  I followed also!

  14. CHK getting slammed

  15. Good morning!  

    Still the Yellen show today so nothing to get excited about until the afternoon aftermath.  

    You would think bad HPQ earnings would bother the markets more, but it's not so far – not even the Nasdaq.  HPQ took a big hit on exchange rates – hard to imagine why investors think this won't affect other companies as well. 

    Oil bouncing off $49 again, good for a long again (yawn).  

    /NG/Pfehl – I'm not down on /NG, it's just too tricky to play futures now.  UNG is $14.88, should hold $14.50 going forward (about $2.70 on /NG).  

    KONA/DC – Wheeee!  

    CBI/Jbur – Wow, way better than we thought.

    Submitted on 2015/02/05 at 2:52 pm

    CBI/Jbur – I like them but in the CLF, FCX family of LONG TIME for a turnaround. 

    I think they are a good buy down here and you can sell the 2017 $30 puts for $5.10 and net in at $24.90 and leave it at that.  If you want to be more aggressive, you can add the $40/55 bull call spread at $4 and you still have a $1.10 credit (net $28.90) with a potential upside of $16.10 at $55 (up 1,463%).  I like this because it's conservative and, if CBI does drop another 20% to $28, you're still not hurting on the puts and you can invest in rolling the $40s to the $30s for less than $5 more.  

    Ministers/Albo – That's a bad sign since it's not working.  

    Welcome back Pat!  I'd love to hear your impressions on India if you are so inclined.  

    CHK/Stock – Could be a nice entry opportunity but I still need to get my head around what that company is made of after all the asset sales. Much less Nat Gas is what's killing them now:


  16. CBI/ dc and palotay:  Glad to hear I wasn't alone in picking this ripe plum.  

  17. Phil

    SeaDrill Limited (SDRL)

    Did we close this trade or roll?

    Although, interestingly, as a new trade idea, since the SDRL 2017 $25 calls are $3.30 and the 2017 $30 calls are $2.25 –  I love buying 20 of those spreads for $1.05 ($2,100 but $1.25 would be fine) and selling 5 of the short 2017 $13 puts for $3.20 ($1,600) and then you are in $10,000 of long spreads for net $500 and your worst case is owning 500 shares of SDRL for net $14, which is 39% off this already low price.


  18. VIX is collapsing again (13.43) – nothing at all to worry about folks.  Good time to buy 2017 calls!  


    SDRL/QC – It was never added to a portfolio, just a trade idea I liked.  Here's my more recent comments (still stand):

    Submitted on 2014/12/05 at 12:24 pm

    SDRL/Jeddah – It's a relentless sell-off with oil testing $65 today.

    Guggenheim Cuts Seadrill, Transocean, Diamond Offshore as Contrarian Bet Goes Bad

    They suspended their dividend and that's causing the bottoming action as funds that own dividend payers are FORCED to sell them.  

    SDRL is a strange company as they tend to own PARTS of rigs and they sort of trade the rights as middlemen more often than just contracting rigs the way RIG or BHI do.  Because of this, they have a pretty low break-even rate and they are pre-sold well into next year so, for the most part, this sell-off is a huge over-reaction:

    They were servicing their debt well enough last year, with $400M in positive cash flow and now they have cut their $1.2Bn dividend so I'm not too worried about their ability to go forward through 2017.  The real question is, will the oil market come back by then?  That's what you have to bet on with SDRL.  

    Submitted on 2014/12/30 at 9:52 am

    SDRL/Sibe – Like all the oil service stocks, they have a long, slow road to recovery ahead.  I like SCALING in to them for the long haul and the buy/write is a good way to go but just make sure you don't over-commit as we don't know for sure who will or will not survive a prolonged rout in oil.  Essentially, I like the plays but, if we don't pop back over $60 in Jan and hold it – then I'd pull the plug.  I agree it's good to see them bargain-shopping but it's still gambling on their part that oil will turn back up – it's more straightforward to just bet on USO.

    Speaking of oil – $49 just failed to hold!  Don't see how that can be good for the Dow or S&P.  Inventories coming up – so maybe just fear. 

  19. Good Morning everyone! The webinar replay is up on our YouTube channel here:


    Or downloadable direct from webex here:

  20. "At 434.1 MMbbl, U.S. #crude #oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years" @EIAgov #Energy






  21. whoa

    #EIA Crude Oil Inventories Actual: 8.427M Forecast :3.983M Previous: 7.716M

  22. Down we go on oil inventories – $48.50.

    +8.4Mb, Gas down 3.2Mb and Distillates down 2.7Mb – this is a good report, long at $48.50!  

  23. /CL I need to get a better setup. I couldn't switch screens and click fast enough to catch the low… waiting for bounce lower…

  24. verreaul – I've checked out ButtonTrader, NinjaTrader, and BracketTrader.  Some of them do what we want, but NONE of them can offer the ability "restart" once profits are taken.

    NinjaTrader may be able to do it with NinjaScript, but that's all I can find.

  25. /CL- well with Phil telling us that 49 was a good place to go long it was easy to hit the buy button at 48.50 and really fun to watch it climb right back up, then sell at 49.15 and reload every time it went back to 49 waiting for the jump to where it is now. I am loaded again waiting for the bounce to 49.50. I think it will go down again maybe below 49 and then later today I have a feeling we will see it go above 50. That's my gut feeling right now, so I'd be careful about any shorting, but of course you never know.

  26. verreaul – You setting ScTrd to buy in at 49, scale out at each .24 move?

  27. Phil / SDS march 23 calls – did we roll these in yesterday's call?  I missed the call.    I saw the TZA roll from April to July and did that.  

  28. /CL- I think it is bouncing lower now to try and shake those of us playing it long now. It will bounce around down here with maybe a big spike down and then pop to 49.50 at some point. At least that's what I think.

  29. Very different testimony today because some of the Senators actually understand banking and finance, so they are asking better questions.  

    Refinery utilization just 87.4%, imports down to 7.3Mb/d!  

    Supply is simply exceeding demand and that article from yesterday indicated a new solar installation goes up every minute (1,440/day, 525,000 yr) 

    Good plan on oil, Craigs.  Stopped out now ($49.25) but hoping for at least $48.75 for re-entry.  If I wasn't busy working, I'd probably play the $49 line for the bounces until it breaks but too distracting.  Anyway, /TF looking like more fun to short below the 1,235 line and /NQ below 4,450 as well.  Lined up with /YM 18,200 and /ES 1,212.50.

    SDS/Terra – Nothing yet.  Don't want to throw good money after bad and it's bad if ES makes it through the day over 2,110.  TZA is a hedge, SDS is a bet, the bet seems to be a loss.  

  30. thx burr.  i may be able to get a good discount now once superfish issue is resolved :)  

  31. Burrben/  NinjaTrader has hundreds of 3rd party plugins in their ecosystem. I'll start looking at them. I haven't set my Scale yet, waiting to see where it settles, however 49 w/.24 looks good for now

  32. Greg 


    Thanks much for posting the video from yesterday.

  33. Which 2017 Vix Calls phil?

  34. That is interesting Burr, I'm long again at 49 12. Of course, as soon as I got in it spiked down to 49, prob trying to shake me out or something. Looking for 49.25- 49.50 again. 

  35. Phil,

    ESRX Just posted a good QTR / YR. outlooked EPS of 10% to 13% for 2015 (consensus estimate $5.43/sh) at 18X this puts them at 98ish for 2015, and with a 12% gain in 2016 at 110.  I'm looking at the position below, for a bullish call.  Any thoughts on this, or possibly a better BCS that gives me a better return not the spread?  

    Sell '17 75 puts at 6.5

    buy '17 75 calls at 18

    sell '17 100 calls at 6 

    Thanks for your help.

  36. Phil,

    Sorry Esrx should read, On the spread, not – 'NOT the spread'  autocorrect screwed me up

  37. verreaul – if you want to email me, we can take the autotrading topic offline. email is  I can send you what button trader sent me in response.

  38. GOGO looking healthy but earnings are tomorrow

  39. Burr – That Pivot Boss is obviously just reading my posts here. :)

    SO I was right about 49.50. Now we will see if it drops before popping to 50 or if it just goes straight up.

  40. Looks like straight up ws the call!

  41. craig –  *high five*  I missed adding below 48, but added around 49ish.  Getting out at 49.90

  42. Craigs – You are something. :-)

  43. VIX/Hpatel – No, I meant the low VIX makes it cheap to buy 2017 calls for yourself, not calls ON the VIX.  

    Nice dip in /TF already!  1,232.50 is the stop and /NQ would be the fresh horse.  

    ESRX/Batman – Not the kind of play I'd make because the stock is up 25% since October, so a bit chasey for my tastes.  The quarter was good but the reason they are down 3% on the news is because it wasn't 35x earnings kind of good, which is where they are priced at the moment.  Revenues were only up 2.1% so I take the earnings bump with a grain of salt – I don't follow them closely enough to know off the top of my head but it smells fishy.  

    The bottom line is they are projecting $5.45 and that does mean $100 is possible but a 20 p/e is the most I'd allow on them and that's WITH very good growth so probably a bit ahead of themselves now means I'd be less aggressive with an entry.  If you can get $18, that's nice on the 2017 $75s (last was $19) but I'd sell the $95s for $8+ (last $8.90) and be happy with net $10 or less on the $20 spread and IFF ESRX goes lower, THEN you can sell puts for a better price and, IF they don't, THEN you'll probably make 100% on your bull call spread without using any margin – nothing wrong with that.  

    Wow, oil just jammed up to $49.80!  $49.75 is a sensible stop now.  

    GOGO/Stock – Interesting.

    Submitted on 2015/02/20 at 12:26 pm

    Long discussion…

    So, for the LTP, let's sell 10 2017 $15 puts for $4.40 and buy the $20/25 bull call spread for $1.20 so we still have a net $3.20 credit for a net $11.80 entry (worst case) on 1,000 shares with the upside of $8,200 at $25. 

    LOL, /TF back to 1,234 already.  Watch those lines for rejections and you can short the laggard.  

    Europe not as excited as we are.  Greek banks off 10%, Italy following them (because their banks are just as bad):

    Draghi is addressing EU Parliament today as well.  

  44. VIX/Phil or Stj - I recall a discussion a while back (2-3 years?) how VIX did not really affect LEAP pricing.. mostly near term <12 months expirations. Anyone have a good reference on this?

  45. Closed /cl at 49.70, nice!!

  46. Phil – Since I don't short /NQ much, and I'm trying it out.  What is a sensible stop and profit target?  Avg cost is 4449.65.   

  47. Well I have made over 2k in each of my accounts so I should be done for the day. I usually end up giving some back if I continue after a run like this. Just so hard to stop sometimes as it really can be addictive. I have been very lucky though and shouldn't push it. Talk to you all later unless I can't keep away. Will try to spend some quality time wit the wife though. Remember my call though, a pullback from 50 and then a run up in the afternoon to 50.50 or even 51. If we go over 51 watch out !

  48. Phil – I had an idea about "lines" and convictions you might have.  Earlier today you spoke of where you would have bought /SI as it was a conviction buy, but now it's not a play.  

    Could we setup a bi-monthly "conviction line" update that I would maintain on the various futures products?  I could use FinViz or another site to keep track of you're calls.  When one of the lines gets close to your call, I'd get an alert that I could forward to you or post to the site.  

    Maybe doing something like this would allow us to not "miss" opportunities.  It wouldn't be a whole lot of work, other than just a quick review, and modification of the line.

    For example /CL  Buy conviction @ 49   Sell conviction @ N/A

    Just a thought to keep our eye on the ball

  49. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 11:01:03 AM

      People wait to go through a security check at an entrance to Tiananmen Square, near the mausoleum of late communist leader Mao Zedong (top left) in Beijing on China’s National Day, October 1, 2014. Crowds visited the square on the 65th anniversary of Mao’s founding of Communist China, on October 1, 1949. AFP PHOTO/Greg BAKER (Photo credit should read GREG BAKER/AFP/Getty Images)

    Emerging markets in Asia and Africa still reign supreme: They’re at the top of global growth projections over the next two years.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  50. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 10:15:36 AM


    For 18 months, a 50-seat regional jet left United Airlines’ Newark hub each Thursday night bound for Columbia, S.C. On Monday mornings, United Express flew back to Newark.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  51. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 6:00:00 AM

    Feb. 25 — Warren Buffett has promised investors an expanded annual letter as he marks his 50th anniversary running Berkshire Hathaway. Bloomberg’s Noah Buhayar reports on “In The Loop.”

    (Bloomberg) — Warren Buffett promised a hefty annual letter this year — some 20,000 words — as he celebrates his 50th anniversary running Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and charts its next half century.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  52. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 11:23:08 AM

    (Bloomberg) — Royal Bank of Canada rose the most in almost three years and National Bank of Canada shares climbed after the companies reported profit that beat analysts’ estimates.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  53. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 10:58:00 AM

    (Bloomberg) — Cablevision Systems Corp. lost more pay-TV subscribers than some analysts estimated in the fourth quarter as competition from phone carriers like Verizon Communications Inc. heats up in its main New York metropolitan area.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  54. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 10:45:15 AM

    (Bloomberg) — If you think swings in the crude market have been bad, take a look at coffee.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  55. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 10:40:43 AM

      European Union (EU) flags fly outside the new headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, on Friday, Feb. 13, 2015. The ECB’s plan to buy at least 1.1 trillion euros of bonds to boost inflation across the currency union is shielding the bloc’s other debtor nations during the latest phase of the Greek crisis. Photographer: Martin Leissl/Bloomberg

    (Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank denied there was a secret debt-swap deal that unfairly foisted losses onto other investors during the first restructuring of Greek debt.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  56. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 10:32:25 AM

    (Bloomberg) — Cigarette makers Altria Group Inc., Reynolds American Inc. and Lorillard Inc. settled 400 Florida smoking lawsuits for $100 million, resolving a group of so-called Engle cases that grew out of a 2006 Florida Supreme Court ruling that aided individuals suing the industry.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  57. Glad I didn't play ?CL from the short side today, but missed all of the excitement on the long side.

    Meanwhile back in the mundane world of investing, F is catching some bids today.

  58. VIX/Scott – No idea.  It certainly does have some effect but not a direct or immediate one.  Certainly when the VIX is low, LEAPS get cheaper – that's just from observation.  

    /NQ/Burr – I think 4,440 should be bouncy but then if it doesn't bounce 4 points (strong) maybe more downside to come so, in theory, if 4,444 isn't support on the way back down, then probably only a weak bounce to 4,442 that will fail and then maybe below 4,440, where you want to use that line as a stop hopefully for another 10-point drop.  

    Good discipline, Craigs – make the money/enjoy the money.  

    Yet another good rejection at 1,135 on /TF!  

    Lines/Burr – That would be nice if the lines formed up on a certain date every month but my conviction comes from observing the formation of support along with Fundamental supports that I see coming from the news flow.  Picking an arbitrary point in time to make pronouncements is what idiot analysts do who value selling subscriptions over making accurate analysis – not for me thanks.  To say "Buy oil with conviction at $49" would be subject to change every hour on the hour – surely you realize that?  

    Again, I will attempt to emphasize that 90% of the time, I see NOTHING I want to trade in the Futures.  You are trying to trade 90% of the time and you want me to enable your very dangerous habit.  No.  When I see what I think is a good line for Futures trading, based on MANY criteria and not just some arbitrary price point, I make a call.  That's it.  

    F/Albo – How did we miss getting back in at $15?  I like those guys. 

  59. Rut  Last head fake before we head down?

  60. Brent rejected at 60. Could see a pull back now. Maybe! Or it is just a pause on the way up.

  61. Phil –  I knew you were going to say exactly that.  I do understand what you mean.  But wouldn't an "alert" system be helpful for PSW?  For example take a look at F… you said "How did we miss them?"  

    If we would have setup the buy list or a list of preferred stocks with a price level alert, then we wouldn't have missed it.  That's all I'm saying.  I'd love to get a list of stocks , futures, whatever together and figure out what price we want to know about.  What if TSLA hits 700, wouldn't it be nice to know PROactivly that it happened so we can take action to sell calls on that day?  

    Why not make the computers work for us and scan?   Another good alert would be when a stock in the LTP violates it 8, 21, and 200 day moving avg's.  Wouldn't it be nice to know about that?

  62. Brent back over 60

  63. Brent rejected 60 again. I'm saying oil could go up or down from here. :)

  64. UNG/Phil

    Have Jul $14/$17 BCS for 0.85. Based on your earlier comments should this be sold now? Thank You.

  65. Ford….yodi made the call on Jan 5 2015 and Phil had a play on them too.  I did a bull call 13/17 and a short 13 put leg.  Phil did a buy/write.  Just setting the record straight :)

  66. F/Phil:

    I didn't think we missed F. From Jan 5th:

    "F pays a nice 0.50 dividend (3.3%) and you can buy it at $14.84 and sell the 2017 $13 calls for $3 and the $15 puts for $2.40 and that nets you in for $9.44/12.22, which makes the dividend 5.5% while you wait to get called away with a $3.56 profit (37%) if F is over $15 and, below $15, $12.22 is your break-even but really $11.72, since you get $1 in dividends over 2 years (on 1x), which is 21% below the current price.  That's you WORST CASE.  All F has to do is flatline and you make 47% and your worst case is buying them at a 21% discount.  This is the kind of trade you put in long-term portfolios!  "

    I opened a position that day.

  67. F/Phil:   P.S.  Sales of the  new F150 with aluminum body are going nuts.

  68. /NG 2.841 now.

  69. SLCA – recovering nicely back over 30 from being down 27 overnight. Must have been an a good conference call. 

  70. F – I opened a position that day too.

  71. Alerts/Burr – I used to run scans and such, decided it was too much of a distraction since I had a much better percentage first reading the news and THEN looking for stocks to trade based of the Macro Premise but feel free to experiment – I look forward to hearing what you find.  We have 40 stocks on the buy list and another 80 in the portfolios and then we must mention 40 or 50 a week – plenty of things for you to choose from if you want to mine our picks.  

    Good call Traderd!  

    UNG/Hex – I would think that, based on my earlier comments, it would be clear I still like UNG for the long-term – I simply don't like going long NOW this close to $3 ($15 on UNG).  For your spread, anything over $15 is good.  Your July $14s are $1.70 and just keep in mind you can flip those to a Jan $15/20 bull call spread (now $1.20) and drop your basis to 0.35 – should you lose faith in your July target. 

    F/Willsons, Jbur – There you go, case closed.  I guess we just didn't put it officially in a portfolio.

    Good time to scale in to some F Jan17 13/17 BCS and sell the Jan17 13p cost you .28 cents to start a 4$ spread!

    Submitted on 2015/01/05 at 10:36 am

    F/Yodi – Good call.  I certainly love them at $13.50.  

    F pays a nice 0.50 dividend (3.3%) and you can buy it at $14.84 and sell the 2017 $13 calls for $3 and the $15 puts for $2.40 and that nets you in for $9.44/12.22, which makes the dividend 5.5% while you wait to get called away with a $3.56 profit (37%) if F is over $15 and, below $15, $12.22 is your break-even but really $11.72, since you get $1 in dividends over 2 years (on 1x), which is 21% below the current price.  That's you WORST CASE.  All F has to do is flatline and you make 47% and your worst case is buying them at a 21% discount.  This is the kind of trade you put in long-term portfolios!  

    Submitted on 2015/01/14 at 10:26 am  

    F/Yodi – Always a good time for them at this price. 

    See Burr, the system does work.  I'd rather have a group of smart people paying attention to the markets and chatting and sharing ideas than rely on automated screens any time.   Screens seem clever but you waste so much time looking at stocks that pop up rather than focusing on the ones that really make sense that day, based on all those "non-programmable" factors that I consider much more important.  

    F150/Jbur – That's right and that's one of the reasons we liked them. 

    SLCA/Pfehl – I'm still wondering if we should add more to the LTP. 

    Good goin' Rev.  

  72. /TF – Shorted at 1235 but got out already. Not really feeling like a down day, yet!

  73. New F150 is kinda spendy. I usually trade every year for one but the new one i spec'd out was about 58k. I paid about 48k last year.  Is that inflation?  Bot a Toyota instead…..

  74. Speaking of stocks where the Fundamentals are lining up.  A good way to play Nas 5,000+ is SOCL, which looks like it's ready to head back over $20.

    SOCL doesn't have leaps but you can sell the Sept $17 puts for $1.10 and buy the Sept $16/19 bull call spread for $1.70 for net 0.60 on the $3 spread that's $2.75 in the money to start.   I like SOCL long-term so let's put 15 in the LTP.

    On SLCA in the LTP, the bull call spread is kind of a joke, with the 2017 $25 calls at $9.50 and the $40 calls at $5 for net $4.50 on the $15 spread that's $5 in the money so let's get 5 more of those (no change in the short puts). 

  75. Phil,

    What is your opinion on PANW? FEYE has also recovered.

  76. SQQQ/Phil – time for some of these or holding out for 5000?

  77. PANW/Harip – Not at all cheap after running up 100% since last winter.  These guys have great growth in revenues but it cost them $200M (losses) to add $200M in revenues last year – no clear evidence they are going to be able to turn it around  before IBM, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN or whoever comes in and steals all the major customers with their own solutions.  Still better off playing FEYE if you like the space, they will lose $400M this year – so imagine how many customers they will have!  

    It's difficult to play in a space that's "pre-profit".  This is like chasing all those cloud companies a few years ago.  In the end, none of them ended up making any actual money and now the big boys are taking over.  PSW Investments has been looking at 3 security start-ups and there's a line forming behind them too – it's a very crowded space and, in the end, there was Norton and Symantec in virus protection and neither of them could make money either – why is this time going to be different?  

    FEYE/Scott – Not cheap but they have potential.  I don't buy companies that lose $120M on $140M in sales as a rule…  We are looking at an early stage security play through PSW Investments, the sector is certainly hot but I like the odds of a start-up better. 

    SQQQ/Scott – 5,000 would be the holy grail for a short.  We do already have 50 SQQQ Jan $27s in the STP, now $4.30 is about 20% less than we paid, so a good entry.  

  78. Got bored waiting to play /CL on the short side.  Went long. Out with +42 ticks.

  79. Phil,

    The competition for on prem solutions of panw and feye will be from csco/jnpr. ibm/msft/goog don't sell in this space. Having been in tech industry and in the valley for 20+ yrs, ibm/csco/hp are on life support. They have domains where there is constant but shrinking revenue stream. These companies meet numbers by reducing costs and laying off people. It would be impossible to find a single smart new college grad who would willingly want to work for ibm/csco/hp. I would not touch ibm/csco/hp for any type of long term investment. On the other hand, goog/aapl/msft/fb are very interesting and innovative places to work.

  80. SOCL options are just too thinly traded for all of us to jump in



    Data as of 2/24/2015







    % NET




































































    Holdings are subject to change.

  82. formatting sucked but the stocks in the above list are the top 10 holdings of SOCL

  83. ATM cash scenario – scary

  84. Phil / ARO – need some help on a dumb headed move I made on ARO and not sure what I can do to get unstuck. I hold the following. 

    - Sold 7 Apr 2.5 for 0.55 (was up at one point but didn't take the profits and then earnings happened)

    - sold 7 Apr 3 for 0.70 (hoped these would work out, doh!)

    My idea was to scale in on your ARO position on the short end. As you can see this worked out miserably and is now eating into my margin. Hope this can be salvaged to something that may take money down the road. Thanks. 

  85. * make not take. Took enough already  lol

  86. link to latest portfolios review by Phil?

  87. Phil/UCO,

    What is the currect UCO position in the portfolios?

    Thanks as always.


  88. hope someone out there made some money following my script which I laid out earlier. If not, go short at 51 now. Out at 50.50. Good luck.

  89. Nice blow-off top in indexes and oil ($50.50) for another good set of shorts.  4,060 on /NQ and 1,236 on /TF lining up with 1,217.50 and 18,220.  

    Brent up at $61 now (BNO $22.90) and that's up 4% for the day so oil could go higher as $50.50 is up just 2.5% – so maybe just pausing there….

    F150/Willsons – $58,000?  Wow, I had no idea.   They don't even have those things in showrooms around here (NY/NJ).

    Competition/Harip – I wouldn't sell GOOG/MSFT short on cyber-protection.  They have the trustable names and, of course, the desire for the revenue streams.  Of coruse INTC bought McAfee for $8Bn a few years back, I wouldn't count them out either.  IBM we're long on as they will keep innovating and bringing new things to market, they are going through a transition but I think they come out the other side stronger – even if there is only one employee left (Watson).  So far, our bottom call at $150 has done OK:

    SOCL/Stock – We played them before, you just have to be patient for fills. 

    SOCL/Stock – Actually, I like the fact that they end up picking up the newbies too.  

    ATM/Scott – Ah, I love a good doom and gloom scenario.  

    ARO/Pfehl – Ouch!  There's a reason we have 100 longs in the LTP, you know…  Oops, I guess we've had this conversation before:

    pfehl (basic) 

    Phil / ARO – Up almost 20% today. Not sure if it's in one of the portfolios anymore but it may be a good time to sell into the excitement.

    Submitted on 2015/01/08 at 11:17 am

    ARO/Pfehl – We still have 100 spreads in the LTP, looking for $5 down the road.  This is a good start.

    So now you are short (effectively) 1,400 shares at net $3.375 with the stock at $3.90 – it's not terrible, just annoying.  You can roll the 15 short April calls ($1,715) to 10 of the 2017 $4s ($1.40 = $1,400) and buy 10 of the 2017 $2.50 calls for $2.10 and sell 10 $3 puts for $1 and that's net the $875 you originally collected less $1,715 to buy them back + $1,400 for the new call sales + $1,000 for the put sale and then $2,100 for the 2017 $2.50s puts you in the $2.50/4 spread with the short $3 puts at net $540 with a potential $1,500 if ARO stays over $4.  Beats losing…

    Oil punched $51, good call by that chart guy Burr found earlier:

    PivotBoss Crude Oil Analysis

      Portfolios/Pat – Thursday was last update.  UCO we just added back:

    Here's one way to play oil long:  UCO is back at $7.92 and you can buy the July $7/10 bull call spread for $1.10 so just 0.18 in premium on this 2x ultra.  You need a $2 move or 25% which is 12.5% on oil to $55.70 to be 100% in the money on this one, which would be up 172% if it sticks.  Over the last year, UCO is only down 77% with oil down 50% so I think it's worth the risk of also selling the July $6 puts for 0.80 to net into the trade for just 0.30 with a max return of $3 (1,000% return on cash).  Since I have no problem being long $30,000 on oil at $45, let's do 50 of these in the LTP.  It costs $1,500 and pays $15,000 if all goes well.  

  90. LOL, there's 4,444 on /NQ – didn't hold so right to 4,442 and hopefully lower.  

  91. Nice, profitable move down to 18,180, 2,110, 4,437.50 and 1,229 and now we expect at least those weak bounces (4,444 is a good watch line along with 2,112.50) or we may have further to fall.  It sure looks like someone doesn't want us going lower as the brakes were slammed on at these levels.  

  92. ARO – thanks Phil. 

  93. SLCA – I was on the conference call this morning.  It was a good call.  2014 was their best revenue ever.  2015 may not match that performance but 2014 started off slow and the second half really made the year.  They have $300MM in cash and are looking at more M&A to help growth.  They still hope to double the size of the company by 2017 or so, but may take longer due to current O&G market. Their industrial segment (not O&G) grew by 2% and they expect this segment to be steady.  O&G is a question.  They have 60-70% of sales under contract and the rest is sold on spot pricing.  Despite the downturn spot pricing remains higher than contract pricing.  Drop in rig count will have a negative effect on sales, but not one-for-one since more vertical wells are being cancelled than horizontal and more sand is sold for horizontal.  Some customers are continuing with well development (where the proppant comes into play) and others are leaving wells drilled but undeveloped.  So there is a growing backlog of wells  that will need to be developed when the prices recover.  As the service providers jockey for position it is creating some additional opportunities.  Their customer base are predominantly the largest service providers so they do not seem concerned over their customer's ability to pay, although one smaller O&G customer reneged  leaving them with a $6.9MM write off on that debt. They have purchased 600,000 shares of their own stock at an average of $25.99 and plan to continue to do so.  In summary, they can't accurately predict sales since their customers can't predict where the bottom is on oil, but they expect to gain market share and be very well positioned for the recovery.  Current business activity is about the same as it was in early 2014.  I checked and the stock was trading around $20 then, so I think that might be a reasonable bottom for the range.  Their biggest advantage in the market is their extensive infrastructure giving them the ability to deliver large quantities of high quality proppant with short turn-around.  The only troubling part to me is that their O&G segment now makes up a whopping 79% of their business.

  94. RIG – Transocean: Moody's downgrades Transocean's Rating to Ba1.

    No surprise.

  95. I hope you guys were listening to Pharm when I asked him about SGEN a couple of weeks ago. 

  96. You're welcome, Pfehl. 

    SLCA/Sibe – Excellent summary, thanks.  That 79% bothers me too, way more than I thought it had grown too.  We'll have to be careful if we're not back in the $60s on oil this summer.  

    RIG/Albo – No surprise at all. 

    What a ride on /NQ – just tested 4,430 after blow-off spike to 4,060 (or maybe this is the blow-off bottom to get rid of the longs before the next leg up?).  Either way, that was very violent so no more betting for now.  

  97. RIG reports tonight with lots of bets on both sides of the fence

  98. MO another 1000x buy of the 2017 $55 calls

  99. Uh oh, weak bounces failing on the indexes.  

  100. Phil//  based on ur post on RIG do u suggest to lighten up on rig or use this op to buy more?


  101. LOL Rookie – that's no my post, that's just what "THEY" are saying.  I suggest if that scares you you should lighten up ahead of earnings but we're set for now.  I wouldn't add more BEFORE we get the facts – that makes no sense, does it?  

    Bye by 2,010 on /ES – we hardly knew ya!  

  102. Whopping 47M on SPY so far.  

  103. FLTX – growing well and strong finish to FY14. how large can a company like this grow?

  104. RIG: EarningsWhispers says they will beat consensus by a couple of cents. Hope they are right.

  105. If anyone made money shorting /NQ today, please say Thank You to me for trading it.

    Here are my trades.  Red is sell, Blue is buy.


  106. Phil/EWJ,

    Any play there looking at the dollar?

    Thanks as always.


  107. Rig cancellations are national oil company negotiating tactic, Jefferies says

    • Offshore drillers were pounded yesterday after Diamond Offshore (DO -1.8%) disclosed that Petrobras and Pemex had notified of their intent to cancel some rig contracts, but Jefferies analysts think the cancellations are a negotiating tactic being used by national oil companies.
    • The cancellations could be national oil companies' attempts to set examples in an attempt to instill fear, Jefferies says, as it foresees some more cancellations but mostly for contracts to be renegotiated lower, causing some estimate risk but not as dramatic as DO’s news.
    • If the DO floater cancellations are executed, the number of floaters on hire by Pemex would go to four from seven, suggesting little Pemex floater risk is left, the firm says; Paragon Offshore (PGN -3.8%) has only three of its 11 rigs in the region contracted beyond early-May, so the risk is more that the rigs go idle than contract cancellations, and Seadrill's (SDRL +1.6%) five jackups might be excluded from the typical contract terms given it formed a JV with Pemex.
    • Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) -4.4% premarket after reporting weaker than expectedQ4 earnings and saying it will cut its 2015 spending and rig count in response to lower crude oil prices.
    • CHK says it plans total capital spending of $4B-$4.5B in 2015, 37% lower at the midpoint than the $6.7B spent in 2014, and will operate only 35-45 rigs this year, the lowest number since 2004 and down from an average of 64 rigs in 2014.
    • Even with the cutbacks, CHK forecasts 2015 oil and gas production to grow 3%-5% to 645K-655K boe/day.
    • In Q4, CHK's average production increased 12% Y/Y to 729K boe/day, while revenue rose 11% to $5.05B and driven by 47% revenue growth in its natural gas, oil and natural gas liquid segment; operating expenses fell 4.7% to $4.09B.
    • Chesapeake Energy's (CHK -9.5%) team of "value barbarians" has worked to bring the company's costs in line after years of overspending, but CHK will continue to outspend its cash flow in 2015, CEO Doug Lawler said in today's earnings conference call.
    • CHK is forecasting weak pricing for the full year in the Marcellus Shale, and says it started shutting in ~250M cf/day in Marcellus natural gas production in December; CHK plans to run only one drilling rig in the area this year, down from five rigs operating there last year.
    • On CHK's plans for the $5B it made on last year's sale of a big piece of its Marcellus and Utica gas business to Southwestern Energy, Lawler said CHK could use the money to pay down debt, fund its exploration program or acquire new properties or another company.
    • CapitalOne analysts consider Q4 results soft, telling clients that CHK's "weaker than expected liquids pricing plus 2015 guidance for production" likely would drive Wall Street estimates lower.

    Encana CEO says he’s ready for more deals

    • Encana (NYSE:ECA) -0.3% premarket after reporting Q4 earnings that fell far short of estimates and cutting its capital spending and cash flow guidance for the year.
    • ECA says it will slash 2015 capex by ~25% to US$2B-US$2.2B from its earlier guidanceof $2.7B-$2.9B, and it now sees cash flow of $1.4B-$1.6B for the year, down from its previously announced $2.5B-$2.7B.
    • ECA's original capital budget for 2015 was based on an oil price of $70/bbl for West Texas crude, while its updated budget is based on $50/bbl.
    • ECA, which has been shifting its focus to oil and gas liquids and away from natural gas, says Q4 liquids production averaged 106.4K bbl/day, up 61% Y/Y, as realized liquids prices fell 0.9% to $66.40/bbl; natural gas output fell nearly a third to 1.9B cf/day, while realized nat gas prices fell 4% to $4.16/Mcf.
    • Q4 cash flow fell 44% to $377M, largely due to higher taxes and one-time costs associated with last year's $5.9B purchase of Athlon Energy.
    • Encana (ECA +3.6%) says ready to take advantage of the collapse in crude oil prices to do more deals, CEO Doug Settles says, as the announced 25% cut to its 2015 capital budget ensures there is enough cash coming in to cover costs and consider acquisitions.
    • "The longer this [crude oil price] environment persists, the more likely something will occur. There’s lots of people talking," Settles says.
    • ECA’s reduced $2.1B budget this year assumes it can reduce costs by 15%, the CEO says, adding that the company has secured rate cuts of as much as 50% in some areas following talks with drillers and other service suppliers.
    • ECA is not planning job cuts after cutting its workforce by ~25% last year but headcount will fall this year as it chooses not to replace employees heading into retirement, Settles says.
    • Petrobras (PBR -8.3%) plunges in early trading after Moody's downgraded the heavily indebted company's long-term debt to a junk Ba2 rating from Baa3 with a negative outlook.
    • Brazil's finance minister reportedly made a last-minute attempt to the rating agency to try to reverse the decision, offering a guarantee that the government would support the company if necessary.
    • "The main concern now will be another cut to junk by Fitch or S&P, which could lead the company’s bonds to be sold by many institutional investors," says the head of fixed income at Andbanc Brokerage.
    • Separately, PBR reportedly will not renew leases on at least four drilling rigs from Seadrill (SDRL +0.2%), Pacific Drilling (PACD -2.2%) and Diamond Offshore (DO -1.6%) that have been under negotiation since last year; DO already had disclosed the cancellation in its latest 10-K, and SDRL recently warned that contract extensions with PBR likely would fail
    • GIven both the level of interest rates and the flatness of the yield curve, says Annaly Capital (NLY +0.7%) CEO Wellington Denahan, Annaly (and mortgage investors in general) would benefit more from an earnings standpoint than what it would lose from a book value standpoint were rates to move higher.
    • Earnings call webcast and quarterly supplement (page 20 shows the estimated NAV changes based on rate an MBS spread changes).
    • Previously: Annaly book value up 1.8% in Q4, selling at 18.7% discount (Feb. 24)

    SodaStream -6.6% after earnings call defense falls flat

    Gogo up 7.3%, chosen to supply 250 Delta aircraft

    • Gogo (NASDAQ:GOGO) is trading 7.3% higher and has passed average daily volume as it seals a deal to provide its next-gen 2Ku in-flight connectivity service to more than 250 Delta (NYSE:DAL) aircraft.
    • The plans are narrowbody craft serving Delta's long-haul domestic, Latin American and Caribbean routes. The service should also be installed on new international aircraft.
    • The deployment will take several years starting in 2016.
    • The Gogo technology promises peak speed of 70 Mbps at launch.

  108. Barrier Options/Phil – familiar with these? strictly institutional?

  109. FLTX/Scott – They are growing at a good clip and now dropping most of their growth to the bottom line.  Next year, $1.30 per share keeps them growing at a good clip but still trading at 35x forward earnings already is not for me in what I think will prove out to be a low margin commodity space.  Some of these guys will be acquired, so plenty of room to get lucky but that doesn't play well with my preferred long-term, conservative betting.  

    RIG/Jbur – Beating earnings doesn't matter, guidance matters.  Giving us some idea of how well-hedged they are for contracts is key.  

    LOL Burr!  I don't know why you bothered asking me around noon.  I told you:

    /NQ/Burr – I think 4,440 should be bouncy but then if it doesn't bounce 4 points (strong) maybe more downside to come so, in theory, if 4,444 isn't support on the way back down, then probably only a weak bounce to 4,442 that will fail and then maybe below 4,440, where you want to use that line as a stop hopefully for another 10-point drop.  

    We had that one spike against us at 1:30 but all good after that.  

    EWJ/Pat – We already shorted them, we have 100 March $12 puts in the STP, now 0.9 from our 0.11 entry.  I like FXI too, we don't have those but I think they'll fall as well.  

    The Dollar is not likely to dip too far but the Yen may get stronger in absence of more easing over there and we have Japan's economic reports coming up tomorrow.  Hong Kong's GDP was HALF of what was expected (0.4% vs 0.9% q/q) but no mention in the MSM so it didn't officially happen. 

    Barrier Options/Scott – I've heard of them but haven't got a clue who trades them so I've never played with them.  Most exotics have ridiculous premiums and don't let you "Be the House" – so I have no interest in chasing them down.  If I want to gamble – I play poker.  

  110. /TF back to 1,234 already.  This is a CRAZY market.  2,112 on /ES, 18.200 on /YM, 4,440 on /NQ – what sell-off?  I didn't see no sell-off?  

  111. I couldn't wait any longer, I had to exit my little den of sanity and venture out into the big bad world where these "ugly bags of mostly water" tend to scurry around.

    I mean, that's just uncanny timing.

  112. SNL Energy ‏@SNLEnergy  14m14 minutes ago

    Our final #natgas storage survey predicts pull of 244 Bcf for week ended Feb. 20;



  113. TSLA – Stockman takes a swing at TSLA and its "circus barker CEO"  ;-)

  114. Got caught holding one /TF short, might let it ride overnight. 

  115. Phil – "Opinion: Stock-market crash of 2016: The countdown begins."   Good afternoon to you too. 

    How much stock do you put into this?  Pun intended.  Was gold a good investment in the last 2 crashes?  Where would you (start) to put your money?

  116. Opinion: Stock-market crash of 2016: The countdown begins

    Falling AAPL Ends Nasdaq Anti-Gravity Streak

    "I did not take it to use, just to look after it." Brazil judge in Batista case seen driving tycoon's seized Porsche:;

    U.S. productivity now grows faster than jobs. What changed?;

    Embedded image permalink

  117. Sorry, bad code in last comment, reload and all looks good.  

    TSLA/Scott – We'll see if they can get below $200.  

    Meanwhile, check out PCLN!  

    Crash/Grant – Just something to ponder, really.  I think we might crash BUT, with money finally going to workers in the form of higher minimum wages that will likely inflate overall wages and boost the economy the RIGHT way for a change (bottom up), we may actually be on the road to a sustainable recovery too.  The best investment in a crash is not losing your money and then going bottom-fishing.  Did you see our 13 trade ideas from March, 2009?   If you are hedged (like we are) and you luck out and get a nice crash while you are hedged – you can make a real fortune picking up the pieces.  

  118. Phil,

    AAPL - I actually sold the 160 calls ( by accident) yesterday, and went ahead and sold some of my remaining shares as well. On the 160 Calls – i got out of these for a 1K gain today, and with the proceeds of the stock sale started getting into the new AAPL I made a quick 1K on the 160 when the stock dropped, and i was able to take profits and start building the  new 100Put / 110/140 BCS today.  

    Thanks for your input on this

  119. Holy Sh on /RB.  1.80 to 1.93.  Anyone play? How much is that? 

  120. Hmm.  Is RIG not reporting until tomorrow morning or something?  Their investor relations page says the webcast is tomorrow morning..

  121. Burrben/ Multiplier for RB is 42000 almost $5500 / contract for .13 move

  122. General Question,

    I'm new to the site,  does anyone have a list of the companies being followed?

  123. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 6:10:18 PM

    Closely held Smartflash LLC had claimed that Apple infringed three patents and was seeking $852 million in damages. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg

    (Bloomberg) — If Apple Inc.’s past is anything to go by, it won’t have to worry about paying the $533 million that a jury said the company owes for infringing patents related to data management in iTunes.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  124. Albo/CL short

    There was a 50 tick short when they ran price up after 4 oclock to 51.28 then back to 50.74

  125. Boom goes NKD back to 18700

  126. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 3:19:05 PM

      U.S. President Barack Obama speaks during a meeting with Ashton Carter, U.S. secretary of defense, not pictured, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2015. Carter, sworn in as defense secretary today, inherits an array of defense and foreign policy challenges that are likely to help define the remaining two years of Obama’s presidency. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg *** Local Caption *** Barack Obama

    (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama said neither a judge’s ruling nor a standoff with Congress that threatens to shut down the Homeland Security Department would derail his plan to ease deportations of undocumented immigrants.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  127. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 11:52:55 AM


    Something strange happened two years ago at Switzerland’s annual caucus of ultra-luxury car makers. Rolls-Royce, a brand dedicated to the driven, not the driver, unveiled a vehicle that had just two doors, an engine the size of a small Jacuzzi, and a transmission that pinged satellites in order to adjust to the road ahead. The Wraith, as it was called, had no space for a jar of Grey Poupon.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  128. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 8:00:03 AM

      BOSTON – MAY 4: Northeastern University held its commencement ceremony at TD Garden on Friday. Nipali Patel put this saying on her cap as she graduated from the nursing school. (Photo by John Tlumacki/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

    Student loans, especially when they come from the government, are a lot like bedbugs: Once you have them, they’re almost impossible to get rid of. Unlike other debts, the government essentially doesn’t allow people to discharge student loans in bankruptcy, and there’s no statute of limitations on these loans, so if you don’t pay them back, they will stick around as long as you do.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  129. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 12:30:35 PM


    Walking past a row of vending machines and ATMs at the Kursky train station in Moscow, Sergei Amirkhanov stops in front of a bright orange cash machine. Instead of inserting his bank card, he scans his passport, poses for a photo and enters his mobile number. He receives a text message on his phone a few minutes later, telling him to return to the machine and withdraw the cash he needs.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  130. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 1:00:18 PM

    Feb. 25 — Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks about monetary policy, the U.S. economy, Fed independence and proposed capital rules meant to encourage the biggest U.S. banks to reduce risks they pose to the financial system. Watch all of the key moments of Yellen’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee in two minutes. (Excerpts.)

    (Bloomberg) — Janet Yellen was forced to defend the Federal Reserve against accusations that it’s politically partial to the Obama administration and liberal groups during heated exchanges with Republican members of Congress.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  131. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 1:00:02 PM


    Google has created the computer equivalent of a teenager: an artificial-intelligence system that spends all of its time playing—and mastering—video games. The company introduced the new development in machine-learning technology on Wednesday, describing it as ”the first significant rung of the ladder” to building intelligent AI that can figure out how to do things on its own.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  132. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 1:06:53 PM

    Feb. 25 — Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said he’s counting on the European Central Bank to help the country avert default when it runs out of money next month, while bank deposits are also starting to flow back. Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker recaps his interview with the finance minister on “Bottom Line.”

    (Bloomberg) — Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said he’s counting on the European Central Bank to help the country avert default when it runs out of money next month, while bank deposits are also starting to flow back.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  133. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 10:22:01 AM

      A worker straightens merchandise at a RadioShack Corp. store in Peoria, Illinois. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

    (Bloomberg) — RadioShack Corp.’s biggest shareholder, already seeking to buy hundreds of stores from the bankrupt electronics retailer, agreed to a separate sale of the chain’s name, with bids to start at $20 million.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  134. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 9:15:12 AM

     Feb. 25 — TJX has become the latest retailer to announce a bump in wages as some store workers will see a raise to $9 per hour in June. Bloomberg’s Julie Hyman reports on “In The Loop.”

    (Bloomberg) — Wal-Mart has company.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  135. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 3:32:15 PM

      The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, DC June 10, 2004. The Federal Reserve will at least double its 1 percent interest- rate target for overnight loans between banks by year-end, a majority of economists at Wall Street’s largest bond-trading firms said. Photographer: Mike Mergen/Bloomberg News.

    (Bloomberg) — Annaly Capital Management Inc.’s Wellington J. Denahan said she thinks central banks’ efforts to revitalize their economies may one day be seen as the 21st-century equivalent of the medical belief in the benefits of bleeding patients.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  136. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 2:45:20 PM

    (Bloomberg) — Getty Images Inc. burned through a third of its cash in the last three months of 2014 as declining earnings limit the Carlyle Group LP-controlled photo archiver’s ability to invest and curb its access to credit, according to two people with knowledge of the company’s finances.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  137. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 2:40:49 PM

    (Bloomberg) — Shares of Starbucks Corp. are outpacing the broader market amid a decline in global coffee prices spurred by the rain in Brazil.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  138. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 1:39:38 PM


    Two monthly reports that track the strength of the U.S. housing market offered dour assessments this week. And yet the companies that sell homeowners appliances, building materials, and power tools are thriving.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  139. From Bloomberg, Feb 25, 2015, 10:00:56 AM

    An LG Electronics Inc. smartphone and Pebble smartwatch are displayed for sale while a customer shops for phone accessories at an AT&T Inc. store in New York, U.S., on Monday, Jan. 27, 2014. AT&T Inc. is scheduled to release earnings figures on Jan. 28. Photographer: Craig Warga/Bloomberg via Getty Images

    People are Talking About…

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  140. Craigs, you were right on with your thoughts about /CL. Hopefully you played it. 

  141. You might want to start here.

    I think this was from last year.  I used to save certain things from Phil's site that I thought were particularly informative or interesting.  I have been here since 2010.  I strongly suggest skimming through last years post to get familiar with Phil's style.  Each year he has suggested many stocks as his favorites, but I don't think there exists one definitive list.  And remember, just because they have been mentioned in the past, doesn't necessarily make them buys today.  I hope this helps as a start.  Good luck.

  142. batman

    You might want to start here.

    I think this was from last year.  I used to save certain things from Phil's site that I thought were particularly informative or interesting.  I have been here since 2010.  I strongly suggest skimming through last years post to get familiar with Phil's style.  Each year he has suggested many stocks as his favorites, but I don't think there exists one definitive list.  And remember, just because they have been mentioned in the past, doesn't necessarily make them buys today.  I hope this helps as a start.  Good luck.

  143. SPY  5  MINUTEYou're welcome Batman. 

    /RB/Burr – Too crazy for me, that's now a 40% move off the bottom for gasoline since early Jan.  People are confusing a strike for demand – could correct very harshly but could get worse first.  Around $2 I'll be very interested in shorting.  

    RIG/Palotay – Took a huge impairment charge but cash-flow is solid and EPS for the QUARTER is 0.95 per $16 share before the impairment and a loss (non-cash) of $2.04 vs 0.64 profit last year.  

    Revenue of $2.24Bn is down 1.3% since last year and they project no major change in revenue for 2015:


         Item Range  
      Fleet Average Revenue Efficiency 95 percent  
      Other Revenues * $115 million – $130 million  
      Operating and Maintenance Expenses $4.5 billion – $4.7 billion  
      Depreciation $1.0 billion – $1.2 billion  
      General and Administrative Expenses $200 million – $215 million  
      Net Interest Expense  ** $400 million – $450 million  
      Annual Effective Tax Rate 19 percent – 21 percent  
      Capital Expenditures $1.8 billion  
    * Other Revenues primarily includes recharges and other miscellaneous revenues.
    ** Net Interest Expense is net of capitalized interest of approximately $130 million and interest income of approximately $20 million.
    • Revenues were $2.237 billion, compared with $2.270 billion in the third quarter of 2014;
    • Operating and maintenance expenses were $1.310 billion, down from $1.318 billion in the prior period;
    • Adjusted net income was $344 million, $0.95 per diluted share, which excludes net unfavorable items;
    • Net loss attributable to controlling interest was $739 million, $2.04 per diluted share, including $1.083 billion of net unfavorable items, versus the comparable third quarter net loss of $2.217 billion, $6.12 per diluted share, including $2.569 billion of net unfavorable items;
    • The Annual Effective Tax Rate(1) was 26.5 percent, up from 24.8 percent in the prior quarter;
    • Cash flows from operating activities were $566 million, down sequentially from $882 million;
    • Fleet revenue efficiency(2) was 95.3 percent, up from 92.6 percent in the third quarter. Revenue efficiency on ultra-deepwater rigs was 95.4 percent, up from 91.6 percent in the prior quarter;
    • Fleet utilization(3) was 72 percent, versus 75 percent in the third quarter; and
    • Contract backlog was $21.2 billion as of the February 17, 2015, Fleet Update Summary.

    Don't forget, it's a new CEO so he's writing off everything so the turnaround can be amazing. 

    List/Batman – We have our 4 Member Portfolios and we have a Buy List (Virtual Portfolio tab on top of page) - those are the stocks we "follow" along with the Top Trades (tab at top of page) but it's up to you to bring up stocks you are interested in.  We're trying to teach you to be a trader – not a follower of trades.  As I'm sure you can see, many of our Members have their own ideas on stocks and we discuss them on a regular basis. 

    Also, by the way, just because a stock isn't on a "list", doesn't mean we don't follow it.   BA is not on a Buy List because it wasn't cheap at the time, neither was CAT but we just added CAT because it got cheap.  We follow good deals, not lists!  

    And what DC said!  

    Good article, Pstas.  This does feel so much like 1999 but, in 1999, the Nasdaq doubled before finally coming back down.  The question is, are we in early 1999 or late 1999?

    Click to View

    Don't forget, in early 1999, when we crossed 88%, there were plenty of people saying that the last time this happened was 1929 and it was a disaster and a lot of people went short and then market proceeded to go up another 100%(ish) to the 3rd and almost 4th standard deviation.  Also, don't forget, in 1999, not only wasn't the Fed pumping money into the economy, but Greenspan had already "taken away the punch bowl" at the end of 1996, when he said:

    Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?

    Speaking of irrational exuberance – /NKD hit 18,790, now 18,775 – almost a 200-point run off 18,600 earlier – not good for our EWJ puts.  China blasted up too but no good news.  In fact, Singapore had a 4.7% decline in Industrial Production.








  144. I hope that we never see a weather forecast like this!:

  145. The dinosaurs did – once…

  146. Did I recently say I love PCLN? I love PCLN! Totally unplayable, sucks you in, screws you up and then spits you out. I'm going to buy a dog, at least they love you back!

  147. I'm putting BA and CAT on my special super secret alert list that only alerts me.  And all the alerts will be in CAPS.

  148. Burr/ Actually I love BAT and CAT too :)

  149. /CL- I hope you went long at 50.13 but still time if you have some patience. I think it will drop a bit again soon maybe testing 50, but it would be ok to go long now around 50.25 and add if it goes down again. Brent is up slightly .12% and BNO is over 23 so I think we will see WTI follow soon. WTI is currently down 1.4%

  150. Phil- Is NKD ever going to drop or will it just keep grinding higher? I figure the law of averages has to see this thing go down at some point, but when? The Yen is down a bit and the US futures are up slightly, but I can't see why the Nikkei keeps moving relentlessly up, so what do you think is going on here?

  151. I still can't believe that move on /RB yesterday!  Long /CL at 50.25.  I'm planning to hold 1 and keep "in my pocket".  Then play with 1 or 2 more long off 50.25 with ScaleTrader taking profits along the way.

  152. CL

    I had this short last night at 51.00 couldn't keep my eyes open so I closed it with a 50.00 gain

  153. Good morning!  

    /NKD closed with a bang, all the way to 18,850 on news that Japan's Pension Fund will put more money into the markets (I know, at the top?).  Hang Seng was rejected at 25,000 and finished at 24,900 but Shanghia went up and up and up some more, 2.15% for the day.  This is because the crappy data they've been having has, once again, led to  expectations of more stimulus.  God help us all if the economy ever improves!  

    Amazing what's going on in Japan:  The Humble Light Bulb Helps Japan Fill Energy Gap Left From Shutting Down Nuclear Reactors

    Brazil Consumer Confidence Collapses To Lowest. Ever

    S. Korea Showing Signs of Deflation Stage, PM Lee Says. South Korea's economy is showing signs typical of deflation stage amid global economic slowdown, citing Prime Minister Lee Wan Koo.

    That's it, there's literally no other news in Asia worth mentioning – yet the rally.  

    Europe is happy but much more subdued up about 0.15%, as are our own Futures.  

    Eurozone Equities in ‘New Cycle’ — Euronext: Stock markets in the eurozone are at the beginning of a new, positive cycle, with the European Central Bank driving a more dynamic market through its sovereign-bond purchasing program, pan-European exchange Euronext said Wednesday.

    Greece is "fixed" – on to France!  EU Urges French Budget Cuts - European Union authorities said France must adopt significant additional budget-deficit cuts over the next three years to bring its government finances in line with EU rules. 

    Doubts (And Bond Yields) Are Rising Again In Greece

    Germany Lifts Eurozone Economy

    Greece's Loan-Agreement Bluff - Why the Greek distinction between extending the country's bailout and extending its "loan agreement" is a giant red herring.

    Spain Turnaround Plan to Offer Tax Relief - Spain’s government, predicting strong economic growth after years of harsh spending cutbacks, will offer tax breaks to encourage long-term hiring and help struggling single-parent families, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said Tuesday.

    Our Futures are just positive at the moment with lots of data today:

    Janet Yellen Is Freaking Out About "Audit The Fed" – Here Are 100 Reasons Why She Should Be

    Excess debt is like a black hole, sucking in all the life around it

    Bond Rout Might Not Be So Bad as Economists Cut Yield Forecasts. This year’s selloff in Treasuries might not be so bad after all. While economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict prices will fall, sending benchmark 10-year yields up more than half a percentage point, they’re also scaling back forecasts for the size of the decline. Ten-year yields will be 2.62 percent by Dec. 31, based on the latest responses, down from about 3.60 percent that the surveys projected six months ago

    The Most Important Commodity For Housing Is Screaming "Recession"


    median pe


  154. PCLN/Winston – That's why it's a "stay away" stock for us.  

    CAT/Burr – You missed it, we just put them in the LTP.  

    Submitted on 2015/02/24 at 11:14 am

    Speaking of buying, the CAT came back to our buying spot at $80 and it held firm so let's sell 5 of the 2017 $85 puts for $12.50 and buy 10 of the 2017 $77.50/90 bull call spread for $5 for a net $2.50 credit.  So our worst case is owning 500 shares of CAT at net $82.50 ($41,250) and our best case is getting called away at $90 for a $27,500 profit - not a bad risk/reward!  

    Maybe spend less time playing with screens and more time in chat and you won't need alerts!  wink

    Oil/Craigs – Nope, too in-between for me at $50 until it proves to be good support.  It's $50.24 now after testing $50 again and I think we may see $51 if we get a nice drawdown in Nat Gas at 10:30 (and we should, it's freakin' cold!) but I'm not feeling it at the moment so I just don't play.  

    NKD/Craigs – Japan has a $1.1Tn pension fund and they just pledged increasing their allocation for domestic stocks from 8% to 25%, so that's popping the Nikkei (as it should).  

    "Japanese stocks have been overbought in the short term, and there's a lack of catalysts, so chasing prices higher will be difficult. On the other hand, it's difficult to sell when there's expectations of further excess liquidity," said Mitsushige Akino, an executive officer at Ichiyoshi Asset Management Co.

    So Japan has a rapidly aging population and a shrinking workforce and, to close their pension gap, they are going to put 25% of their pension money into the market while it's at the all-time high.  What could possibly go wrong?  

  155. DOW rally if you can believe it.

  156. I'm confused by the "you are here" at under 200% when the S&P was at 666 and is now at 2,113.  To me, that's 317% or up 217% if they are just counting the net gain (hard to tell).    

    Chart of the Day

  157. CL – A lot of talk lately about how inventories continue to build and they are running out places to put it. Could cause a nasty correction down at some point. What do you think Phil? And there are 428,302 open contracts for April!

  158. Looks like I might have to add more lines to the chart soon!

  159. /NKD- Phil does this mean that you think Nikkei keeps rising for the time being? How long do you think the pension money keeps pushing the index higher? Is it a process that takes time to play out or is it a quick shot of liquidity that goes in right away? I would think if it is a quick process, /NKD would be a good short right after that is done.

  160. Phil, Aloha, (still rough surf here—lumpy and bumpy). In light of CAT hitting a "low" and the call to go "long" — what are your thoughts regarding CMI? A very valued company with good growth projected by the analysts for the next two years.  I am long, having sold puts @10 Jan16 and 10 Jan17 for $120.  Mahalo in advance.