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PSW April Portfolio Review – Market Pullback Boosts our Gains!

121.4%!  

That's how much our bearish Short-Term Portfolio is now up as of Friday's close.  In just three weeks of trading since our last Portfolio Review on March, 30th, where we very wisely cashed out the majority of our long positions ahead of the coming correction, we've added $19,055 in virtual gains.  

Even better, in our Long-Term Portfolio, we left our "losing" positions in the materials space in the energy and material space and, without any changes since other than adding a couple of new positions (we had a lot of cash, so why not), our larger Long-Term Portfolio has jumped $43,237 (6.1%) during the same period.  We could not have picked a more perfect combination of long and short positions to ride out the last 3 weeks of the market!  

That has driven the Primary Trading Strategy that we teach our Members at PSW (of keeping a Long-Term Bullish Portfolio with a Short-Term Bearish Portfolio) to a new record of $968,512, up $368,512 (61.4%) from our $600,000 start right after Thanksgiving in 2013 (17 months).  We have these gains, at the moment, because our timing was PERFECT.  But, our timing wasn't perfect by accident – it's the design of the Long/Short strategy that we are able to hold onto our positions when our timing is NOT perfect UNTIL it is.  It makes us look a lot smarter than we actually are!  

We were off track into the end of the year because we flipped bearish a bit too early but being off track wasn't so painful in the Short-Term Portfolio because we still had our long positions in the very bullish and much bigger Long-Term Portfolio.  More importantly, because we had a goal of making 20% a year, when the Long-Term Portfolio hit the 40% mark on March 30th, we decided it was ahead of schedule and cashed out our winners, letting the losers we still had faith in ride.

That left us very bullish on cyclical stocks while we dumped all the high-performing positions – even our beloved AAPL, as it had gotten too big, too fast for our liking.   There was also a bit of a gamble involved in keeping our aggressive short hedges in the STP, since there were no longer very many positions for them to protect.  The key is we could AFFORD to take that gamble BECAUSE we had cashed out our LTP and were miles ahead of our targets for the year.  Now it's paid off – very simple.  

We went over the positions and made adjustments on Thusday afternoon in our Live Member Chat Room, this is just a quick consolidation for easy reference in our Member Portfolio section.  Thanks to the market drop on Friday along with our well-timed adjustments, the STP jumped from $195,280 to $221,390 ($26,110 = 13.4%) and the LTP held steady ($747,544 to $747,122) – so it looks like we'll be rooting for more market downside next week!  

Even our market-neutral Butterfly Portfolio picked up $1,500 (1%) and now stands up 45.8% while our $25,000 Porfolio is bringing up the rear with a $155 gain on Friday and up 34.6% as of the close.

$25,000 Portfolio Review:  I've been neglecting this one a bit though we are on track for our goal of $40,000 by Jan (up 60%) so I'm not worried.  The trick with this portfolio is to wait for fairly sure things and bet those.  

  • VXX – New Top Trade for the week – already flying.  
  • LL – The short calls May $43 should expire worthless and, if they don't – we won't be in the least bit upset.  

  • USO – We just did these adjustments Wednesday.  No regrets so far.    

Butterfly Portfolio Update: Two weeks ago, these same positions were at $128,920.  I think the only adjustment we've made since was a minor move on JPM – changing the short April puts and calls for short May puts and calls into earnings.  Nonetheless, we've drifted along to $145,410, which is +$16,490 (12.7%) in just two weeks.  Yes, it's volatile and moves a lot and today is a good day but, for those of you struggling and stressing over your investments – PLEASE take the time to learn how to trade these positions!  

We don't care if the market goes up or down or stays flat – we are landlords!  We take long-term positions and rent out the short-term bets and collect our premiums month after month.  The net margin requirement on this particular set of positions is currently ZERO.  We have $148,600 in CASH!!!  That's another VERY important point – we're still just building this thing in our 2nd year.  After starting with $100K, we added just 8 positions (and maybe 3 or 4 we dropped as mistakes), testing them and then making firmer commitments to the ones we like.  

With zero margin, we could easily double them up – and we will over the next year.  And then we'll make 40% a year and maybe then you'll be interested???  

TXN – As our positions progress, sometimes they get a bit messy.  In this case we added this (top) 2017 $55/65 bull call spread to further cover the runaway short calls we sold (Now July $55s).  Think about the mechanics of this – We were already in the long 2017 something calls (I forgot) and we sold them as TXN spiked up, very mechanically taking advantage of the run.  We then bought 20 (2x) of the $10 spreads to cover a move up to $75, knowing, of course, that that's extremely unlikely.  

Our new 2017 $55/65 bull call spread is well covered by the short July $55s and the cash we made on the original long calls is back in our pockets.  Meanwhile, the short puts (July $55s too) were sold for $2, so they help pay for the next roll – if needed.  

VLO – Similar to BTU and boy did we take a bath on the 2017 $55 calls we added BUT we cashed out our long calls at the very top and we rolled the short caller to 20 (2x) short June $57.50s which was BRILLIANT and now we're up $5,120 on those.  OK, it's not all mechanical – sometimes we have to make fantastic judgement calls too!  cheeky  Our long puts match our short puts so no worries at all on this trade.

  • BTU – Back over $5 baby!  We sold the Jan $8 puts, so we have a ways to go.  
  • DIS – This one's a runaway train too and we're waiting on earnings 5/5 to determine our next adjustments.  
  • JPM – Still strong after earnings and we're not getting that broad-market pullback we expected.  Still, we sold the May $60 puts and calls for $3.50 and JPM is only at $64 AND we own the Jan $62.50 calls, so we can't actually lose any money to the upside (as it's covered by our long calls) so the only logical thing to do is NOT WORRY!  We'll just have to give it another couple of weeks and see what happens.  Possibly, We'll sell those Jan $62.50 calls (up 120%) and buy 2x 2017 bull call spreads and then roll the short calls up 1.5x or whatever – this is why we can wait – PLENTY of ways to turn this to our advantage. 

  • OIH – Over time, we can't lose on the puts AND the calls and we sold the pair for net $7.80 (less the 0.50 we're now spending).
  • UNG – On track
  • WMT – Fell further than we thought it would but our target is still $80.

See – that's it and we're done for the month!  Wash, rinse and repeat for a few years and you end up with some profits!  

Short-Term Portfolio Update:  Considering how tragically wrong we were on TZA and SQQQ, I'm super-happy with the performance here.  In fact, in the last update I said:

Still, we simply don't need all these hedges, as there's nothing to protect and, if those Strong Bounce Lines are crossed on the indexes, they will begin to look like foolish bets.  Unwinding them without too much damage will be tricky and will be the main thing I am considering this week.  

We WERE down $7,055 (3.4%) since that 3/30 update as of Thursday but our decision to hold strong saved us and now we're rocketing higher.  Of course, we make our changes during the week on this one and just Wednesday we took some USO money off the table and yesterday we cashed in half our TZAs, as planned – so we're not as bearish into next week.  We're now at 96% cash and using just $28,000 in margin – which is ridiculously low for this portfolio but it shows you how much I loves my CASH!!! at the moment. 

  • TZA – Now we're in the more comfortable bull call spreads and less subject to getting burned on a rally.
  • EWJ – The steady decline in /NKD was too slow to do us much good but it picked up the pace considerably on Friday. 
  • FXI – China has already announced new stimulus measures – so we'll see what Monday brings.  
  • TSLA – That's a ridiculous price for the Jan $140 puts.  Confirmed on TOS too.  I almost feel like selling two more for $1,460 but I don't REALLY want to own 200 more shares of TSLA – even at net $130 or less (on the set of 4).  
  • Why not?  Because if TSLA did fall to $140, we would own 200 for net $118 and we could then happily sell 2 $90 puts for $10ish (at least because it would have had a horrible drop) and then some $120 calls for $20 (because hope springs eternal) and THEN we'd have the buy/write at $88/89 and I REALLY WOULD like to own 400 for net $89.  See the difference?  
  • On second thought, maybe not – TSLA is starting to look like /NKD.  

FAS – For some reason, the April calls did not show closed and the May calls we sold (120s for $8.80) are not reflected.  I will fix it for next week.  

  • INTC – New spread, looking good.  
  • KBH – On track.
  • SQQQ – We're not long on AAPL anymore so these are protecting nothing for net $10,000.  They go to Jan and we may buy AAPL again so let's wait until AAPL earnings (4/27) to decide.  
  • USO – These we just adjusted.  
  • XRT – At least now we have a strategy.  With earnings, let's let our short puts expire and let our long puts run free for a week or two. 
  • SLW – Off track but not enough to make an adjustment.  
  • XLU – Yawn.  Not getting the pop we hoped for.  

I'm still very happy with our mix and our net LTP/STP total keeps climbing so we must be doing something right.  Like any good recipe, I hate to fiddle with it while it's working but we have plenty of coverage to buy ourselves some more stocks for the LTP when they go on sale over the next two weeks.

Long-Term Portfolio Update:  Other than adding the INTC short puts, the CM buy/write and adjusting USO, I don't think we changed a thing here since the 3/30 update but what a nice surprise as we popped from $703,885 to $747,574 for a gain of $43,689 (5.8%) in two weeks.  On the other hand, this is why I can't stand being in the market – THAT IS RIDICULOUS!  

We still have more cash than our net value and we're using just $121,500 in margin out of $1.5M available.  I wish I could be excited about adding positions but when I picked CM, I only added 300 shares because I really don't trust the markets.  Still, if we can make 5.8% in two weeks being cautious (less the $7K we lost in the STP), why take risks? 

This is for information only as there's nothing to adjust.  God I love this strategy!  

We're doing so well, at this point, that I'm tempted to go 100% back to cash and take the Summer off (sell in May, go away!).  Frankly, I would except we already went to cash and we've actually INCREASED our performance since then – which indicates we have a pretty good feel for these short-term market moves, so why quit now?  

Still, it's going to be very hard to get me to shift off my CASH!!! position when it's working so well – we'll need to see some REALLY good bargains.  Otherwise, plenty of fund to be had short-term betting on earnings.

 


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  1. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 3:54:37 AM

    Saudi Arabian stocks rose the most in more than two months after the kingdom said foreigners will be able to access its stock market directly from mid-June and as Saudi Basic Industries Corp.’s profit beat estimates. Dubai fell.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1cK2r4n

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  2. From Bloomberg, Apr 18, 2015, 10:22:47 PM

      Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), arrives to a Group of 20 (G-20) finance ministers’ and central bank governors’ meeting on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, on Friday, April 17, 2015. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    The International Monetary Fund said it’s become harder to estimate when the Bank of Japan will achieve its inflation target, suggesting the global fund is backtracking from its prediction of around 2017 or 2018.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HkTgCF

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  3. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 5:53:40 AM

      China’s premier Li Keqiang. Li last month said policy makers will step in if growth slows too sharply, while central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan flagged room to act. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg

    China cut the amount of cash the country’s lenders must set aside as reserves by the most since the global financial crisis just days after a report showed the slowest economic growth in six years.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1JV4lKp

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  4. From Bloomberg, Apr 18, 2015, 1:06:39 PM

      Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, speaks during news conference at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., on April 18, 2015. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    European Central Bank President Mario Draghi urged Greece to work quickly toward an agreement with its creditors to curb a deepening financial crisis and quash doubts over its membership of the euro.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1JfRUIe

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  5. From Bloomberg, Apr 18, 2015, 1:03:14 PM

      Nicholas Schorsch turned a small real estate investment trust into a massive engine of payments for himself and cronies, adding $20 billion of assets in two years and charging for services rendered by 47 entities he controlled, according to court documents filed this week. Photographer: Jonathan Alcorn/Bloomberg

    Behind the accounting errors that knocked $4 billion off American Realty Capital Properties Inc.’s market value was a hidden scheme that generated more than $900 million in managers’ fees and bonuses, investors said in a lawsuit against the company.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DTziOs

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  6. From Bloomberg, Apr 18, 2015, 12:15:04 PM

      Cows graze on dry grass in a field along State Highway 46 near Porterville, California, on April 13, 2015. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

    California has proposed rules calling for mandatory reductions in water use by municipal agencies as a historic drought drags into a fourth year.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1aFYA70

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  7. From Bloomberg, Apr 18, 2015, 12:09:40 PM

      European Central Bank Governing Council member Vitas Vasiliauskas, also governor of Lithuania’s central bank, said “the Greek problems are now related to Greece as such, so they really should think about themselves.” Photographer: Peter Kollanyi/Bloomberg

    The European Central Bank shouldn’t extend Emergency Liquidity Assistance for Greece beyond summer, Governing Council member Vitas Vasiliauskas said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DTr8po

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  8. From Bloomberg, Apr 18, 2015, 11:29:03 AM

      Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China, attends a news conference in Beijing. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg

    China’s central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said the world’s second-largest economy has scope compared with other nations to ease its monetary policies though won’t necessarily take advantage of it.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1aFULyq

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  9. From Bloomberg, Apr 17, 2015, 12:04:00 PM

     

    Republican candidates and potential candidates — 17 in all — were in New Hampshire over the weekend to speak to voters at the “First in the Nation Republican Leadership Summit.” The event’s name refers to the state’s status as the home of the first presidential primary every four years. 

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ERFDL0

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  10. From Bloomberg, Apr 17, 2015, 7:24:40 PM

      Brian Roberts, chairman and chief executive officer of Comcast Corp. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    The potential collapse of Comcast Corp.’s merger with Time Warner Cable Inc. wouldn’t just be a setback for those two companies. It would also unwind other pending deals and have a wide-reaching impact on the cable industry.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1PZzyAo

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  11. From Bloomberg, Apr 17, 2015, 12:01:03 AM

     

    When Leonard Tannenbaum set up shop in the basement of an office building in Mount Kisco, New York, his plan for his one-man investing business was about as basic as you can get. “Early on, the idea was to make money,” Tannenbaum says. “How do I make money? How do I get an edge?”

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1aCjjbH

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  12. From Bloomberg, Apr 17, 2015, 4:56:42 PM


    A rare sight these days.

    Can you build a house for less than $200,000?

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1bbfyuY

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  13. From Bloomberg, Apr 17, 2015, 2:10:19 AM


    April 17 — European stocks fell, extending their first week of losses this month. Bloomberg’s Jonathan Ferro reports on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

    European stocks slid, posting the biggest retreat since they began rallying in January, as concern over Greek debt was exacerbated by declines in the U.S. and Asia.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1G2Wr3i

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  14. From Bloomberg, Apr 16, 2015, 7:01:00 PM

     

    U.K. home-price inflation slowed to the least in more than a year last month as uncertainty surrounding next month’s election damped activity.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1aBSnc7

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  15. From Bloomberg, Apr 15, 2015, 12:24:03 PM

     

    The Obama administration supported a bill yesterday, April 14, that would give Congress a chance to review a nuclear power agreement with Iran, if the two countries clinch a deal before their June 30 deadline. 

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1FKUinl

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  16. From Bloomberg, Apr 15, 2015, 12:01:04 AM

     

    In September 2013, Hawaiian Electric Co. told thousands of customers they couldn’t connect their new solar panels to its distribution grid. In some neighborhoods, HECO said, its system couldn’t absorb any more unused energy from home solar arrays. The moratorium, which lasted 13 months, made Hawaii a central battleground in the effort by utilities to control the rapid growth of independent solar companies across the U.S. And it was a big deal to people such as Robert Gould, a retired Northwest Airlines pilot living near Honolulu. He’d just paid $53,000 to have solar panels installed.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1JJrEXH

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  17. From Bloomberg, Apr 13, 2015, 5:09:19 PM

      Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore speaks during a keynote session at the South By Southwest (SXSW) Interactive Festival in Austin, Texas, U.S., on Friday, March 13, 2015. The SXSW conferences and festivals converge original music, independent films, and emerging technologies while fostering creative and professional growth. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg *** Local Caption *** Al Gore

    If you go far enough left or right on the American political spectrum, you end up in the same place: trashing utilities for trying to kill the solar-power revolution.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1H10z2f

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  18. From Bloomberg, Apr 16, 2015, 5:36:43 PM

     

    It’s hard to say exactly when the British World War II slogan “Keep calm and carry on” began its ascent in the pop-culture lexicon, but over the past three years startup Teespring has turned variations on that theme into fashion statements: “Keep calm and ask a librarian,” “Keep calm and smoke on,” “I can’t keep calm I’m a wrestling mom,” and hundreds more.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IPMlng

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  19. From Bloomberg, Apr 16, 2015, 9:15:38 AM

    Microsoft Corp. and Yahoo! Inc. revamped their search agreement, giving the Web portal more freedom over how it makes money from advertising under Chief Executive Officer Marissa Mayer.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1E5xcgk

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  20. From Bloomberg, Apr 18, 2015, 9:02:03 AM


    Pour yourself a strong mug of Côte d’Ivoire coffee, and enjoy our longer form weekend reads:

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1Edu424

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  21. From Bloomberg, Apr 17, 2015, 3:01:03 PM


    Netflix, past and future.

    In the 2006 business bestseller “The Long Tail,” author Chris Anderson depicted DVD-rental service Netflix as the poster child for the idea he was trying (quite successfully) to popularize. Anderson credited Netflix Chief Executive Officer Reed Hastings with giving him the idea for the book, and he quoted Hastings at length describing how Netflix’s users were moving out the long tail of content:

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1CWPOrV

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  22. From Bloomberg, Apr 17, 2015, 2:06:28 PM


    How much is that doggy in the window?

    It’s been fascinating to watch the Russian economy adjust to sharply lower oil prices. With a little help from the central bank, the country’s recession might not be as bad as previously thought.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1yCmo7l

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  23. From Bloomberg, Apr 17, 2015, 12:15:14 PM


    Was it worth it?

    Every year, right after the April 15 tax deadline, the U.S. Census releases its data on the prior year’s state tax collections. It is a fascinating document, filled with great data points for tax and policy wonks. It reveals a good deal about the state of local economies, economic trends and results of specific policies. In broad terms, the financial fortunes of the states are improving.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1JbyRPr

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  24. From Bloomberg, Apr 17, 2015, 9:54:49 AM


    Reflecting the global economy’s woes.

    Few components are as essential to the workings of industry as the humble ball bearing. So the bleak economic picture painted by today’s earning report from the world’s biggest bearings maker was worrisome enough. But combined with sales news indicating weak consumer demand for staples such as toiletries and food — goods that economists call inelastic, meaning people tend to keep buying margarine and soap no matter what their economy is doing — they suggest the global economy is far more fragile than most observers have acknowledged.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1Hfbvti

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  25. From Bloomberg, Apr 17, 2015, 8:00:14 AM


    Just a few bucks from each of you.

    Surely one of the most glorious absurdities of American capitalism is that it’s easier to raise money online to make some potato salad than, say, to start an actual business. Of course, it should be more difficult to get people to invest in an idea than in a side dish. But it shouldn’t be this hard.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1HeF1iT

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  26. From Bloomberg, Apr 17, 2015, 8:00:07 AM


    Hope she didn’t major in art history.

    Here are three charts about student loans that have me worried. First, the total amount of student loans in the U.S. has risen steadily, doubling just since the financial crisis: 

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1EQnMUV

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  27. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1E6h9iq

    Behind Netflix’s $160M International Streaming Loss

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  28. From Bloomberg, Apr 17, 2015, 12:47:04 PM

    President Barack Obama, trying to sway free-trade skeptics among his supporters, said that if the U.S. can’t come to terms on an accord being worked on with other Pacific nations, China will step in to fill the void.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1JbE0qC

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  29. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1CWlg9E

    Saudi Oil Strategy Bets on Longer Market From Lower Price

    April 17 — Saudi Arabia has continued to increase oil output as both prices and demand have decreased in the past year. Bloomberg’s Peter Waldman examines the Saudi’s strategy and what the nation hopes to achieve in the long-term oil market. He speaks on “Market Makers.”

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  30. Great work Phil!


  31. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 11:48:16 AM

      Jeffrey Gundlach, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of DoubleLine Capital LP, said in an investor webcast on Tuesday that the firm is largely avoiding the debt and instead likes municipal bonds because of their high yields relative to other parts of the fixed-income market. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg

    DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach, the bond manager who has beaten 99 percent of his peers over the past five years, said the full impact of the Federal Reserve’s “extreme policies” have yet to be felt in the market.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DzFHwE

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  32. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 1:58:04 PM

      A man waves Pakistani and Chinese national flags on a street in Karachi. China has been Pakistan’s largest trade partner for four consecutive years with $15 billion in 2013, surpassing the U.S. and the United Arab Emirates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Photographer: Asif Hassan/AFP via Getty Images

    Pakistan and China will sign agreements for energy and infrastructure projects valued at $28 billion during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Islamabad that starts Monday, Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal said Sunday.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DA2mJs

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  33. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 1:17:06 PM

    After the longest-ever rally in Chinese equities, investors are getting a reminder that the $7.3 trillion market isn’t just a one-way bet.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HIbfDP

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  34. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 8:23:29 AM

     

    Greece said it won’t renege on election pledges to end austerity measures, even as creditors pressed for a compromise to free financing and avert a worsening crisis.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1D1ImwE

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  35. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 5:30:39 PM

    International inspectors won’t be allowed access to military bases in a deal with world powers to curb Tehran’s nuclear program, a top Iranian commander said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1O62tEL

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  36. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 5:21:26 PM

     

    Greece needs to show euro-area nations what it could deliver by mid-May to unlock new aid payments and avoid default, the European commissioner in charge of euro matters said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DqsVxq

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  37. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 4:19:52 PM

    The world economy is about to discover if to be forewarned by the Federal Reserve is to be forearmed.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Jk1iuu

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  38. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 4:10:58 PM

    Oil prices are likely to stay low for a long time after falling more than 40 percent in the past year, said officials from two OPEC nations.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1H4eAxJ

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  39. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 4:00:00 PM

    Investors are backing away from copper after the biggest two-month rally since 2012.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1H4cFta

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  40. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 3:32:06 PM

    Chile’s Finance Minister Alberto Arenas opened the door to extending this year’s fiscal stimulus to the years ahead, while reiterating the government’s commitment to balancing the structural budget by 2018.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1JjVaSX

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  41. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 3:18:45 PM

    Deutsche Bank AG employees in its Postbank unit voted in favor of striking indefinitely, escalating protests as they seek job protections amid a companywide strategic review that may lead to the division’s sale.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1O5QKWI

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  42. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 2:16:24 PM

    Iraqi security forces have regained full control of the Baiji oil refinery after clearing out remaining Islamic State fighters, the U.S. military said Sunday.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1yHWa33

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  43. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 1:12:06 PM

      The leader of Center Party, Juha Sipila, center, chats with voters during an election campaign prior to the parliamentary elections in Helsinki, Finland, on April 14, 2015. Photographer: Antti Aimo-Koivisto/AFP via Getty Images

    Finland’s Center Party, led by self-made millionaire Juha Sipila, won national elections as Finns look for a path out of the country’s economic sclerosis.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HIaoCT

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  44. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 12:01:00 PM

    Asian policy makers who gathered in Washington for the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings signaled readiness to preserve policy space, said the U.S. should get its impending interest-rate increase over with, and anticipated China’s growing influence in global currency markets and infrastructure development.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HI0Qry

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  45. The Apple Watch is already wiping the floor with the entire smartwatch market


    businessinsider.com / Rob Price

    The Apple Watch is on fire: KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimates that Apple’s debut smartwatch has sold more than 2.3 million units since preor…


  46. Harvard professor reveals why America's infrastructure is so awful, who is to blame, and how we can finally fix it


    businessinsider.com / Abby Jackson and Henry Blodget

    If there’s one thing most Americans agree on, it’s that our national infrastructure blows. But we never do anything about it. Why not? Who’s to blame? A…



  47. nytimes.com / PAUL MOZUR

    HONG KONG — Shen Changxiang, who once supervised the cybersecurity of China’s strategic missile arsenal and spearheaded computer security research for t…


  48. What to Do If a Feud Threatens Your Family Business


    hbr.org / Josh Baron and Rob Lachenauer

    Reading the banner headlines about family businesses gone sour — Market Basket, Rollins, L’Oreal, among others — people often conclude that conflicts in…


  49. Deutsche Bank compares the Chinese economy to a pubescent teenager


    businessinsider.com / Akin Oyedele

    China released some ugly economic data this week. GDP expanded 7% year-on-year, below the 7.3% pace of Q4 2014 and in line with expectations. On a quart…



  50. zerohedge.com

    Earlier today, we were quite shocked when we heard two statements by central bankers uttered during a press briefing in Washington. The first comes from…


  51. Peak earnings week to follow big global selloff


    marketwatch.com / Wallace Witkowski

    Citi Research Earnings season may have gotten a little bit tougher as heavyweights from the industrial, consumer staples, and tech sectors report this w…


  52. From Bloomberg, Apr 17, 2015, 12:14:11 PM

    Russia’s foreign-currency credit rating was kept one step below investment grade at Standard & Poor’s as policy makers struggle to boost growth and the financial system risks weakening due to a lack of external funding amid sanctions.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1JbyXXe

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  53. From Bloomberg, Apr 17, 2015, 11:14:48 AM

    The ruble tumbled the most in almost three months amid speculation the world’s best-performing currency had climbed too far too fast given the outlook for an economy on the brink of recession.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1JbpuPz

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  54. Oil testing $58.  No particular news.  

    AGIO looks interesting.  Wondering if Pharm has an opinion, mine is based on possible profits ahead as sales kick in:

    Bitcoins still flawed:

    And this shit keeps going:

    Year-to-Date is a good look:

    Where are we now?

    And this is still a thing:


  55. This would not have occured to my daughter:

    NYSE at the Must Hold line (11,000) is a big one for the week:

    Corazine launching hedge fund in Aruba – good call:

    Embedded image permalink

    Embedded image permalink

    Embedded image permalink

    Embedded image permalink

    Being on a hot streak is one of the most dangerous things that can happen to an investor:

    Embedded image permalink

    Funny, someone has turned my 2007 article into a video:

    Are We Heading for an Economic Tornado?

    From that article, my March 18th, 2007 prediction was:

    If we manage to topple the entire house of cards that is commodity pricing, perhaps we won’t need sub-prime mortgages to buy ourselves affordable housing at realistic interest rates.  There is certainly a storm brewing as a vacuum of money has been left in our heartland as the Broker/Commodity/Financial triumvirate has funneled $6T away from you and the things you enjoy (consumer goods) to force you to spend it to maintain the things you need (cars, tractors, appliances).  They’ve created a storm that threatens to tear the global economy apart.


  56. Ooops, my point was – the same point could be made today.  


  57. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 12:00:01 AM

      An image of Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook Inc., left, with Robert Greifeld, CEO of Nasdaq OMX Group Inc., right, remotely ringing the opening bell for trading is projected on a screen at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York on May 18, 2012. Photographer: Peter Foley/Bloomberg

    Few have benefited more from the U.S. bull market that started in 2009 than technology companies, and none are being counted on more by investors to deliver the earnings needed to keep it going.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Q7T7Xr

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  58. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1DrZqvl

    Greek Debt Deal: A New May Deadline?

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  59. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 8:09:36 PM

     

    Joseph Gladbach and his fellow bankers at Jefferies Group field three to five calls a day from investors eager to park their millions in energy stocks or bonds in the worst down cycle in 30 years.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IuUNFd

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  60. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 6:00:00 PM

      Smoke billows from a coal fired power plant in Beijing. Air pollution has attracted more public attention in the past few years as heavy smog envelops swathes of the nation including Beijing and Shanghai. Photographer: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

    China’s recent scrapping of small coal plants will avoid the release of as much as 11.4 million metric tons annually of climate-warming carbon dioxide, helping the country cut emissions for the first time in more than a decade.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IuoIgL

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  61. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 6:00:09 PM


    Beyond the mall cop.

    Segways are a revolutionary mode of transportation embraced by mall cops and helmeted tourists, but seemingly very few others. Some cities have banned them. A U.S. president has toppled off of one. And in 2010 the company’s (then) owner accidentally drove his off a cliff. Yet despite these setbacks, and sales that have never approached expectations, Ninebot, a Chinese Segway competitor, announced last week that it was purchasing Segway for an undisclosed sum.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1DqALXO

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  62. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 7:45:11 PM

     

    Global warming certainly has one politician’s attention. 

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1H50psk

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  63. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 11:19:25 AM

      Actor Vin Diesel stars in “Furious 7.” Photographer: Scott Garfield/Universal Studios via Bloomberg

    “Furious 7,” the epic car-chase film featuring the late actor Paul Walker, cruised to a third straight win in U.S. and Canadian theaters and raised the possibility of record-breaking audiences this summer.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1JVXqki

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  64. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 2:02:54 AM

    European stock-index futures rose, signaling equities will rebound from their biggest drop since January, after China expanded monetary easing.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1E06rbj

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  65. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 7:01:00 PM

      Businessmen pass an illuminated clock near the offices of global financial institutions in the Canary Wharf business, finance and shopping district at night in London. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

    Job vacancies in London’s financial-services industry increased by 19 percent in March as firms sought employees to manage additional compliance and governance demands from regulators, a recruitment survey showed.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1G8WOGI

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  66. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 12:17:34 AM

    China’s reclamation of reefs around the disputed Spratly Islands is “worrisome” and is creating tensions with its neighbors and the world, the Philippines’ military chief said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1P2cGyS

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  67. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 7:01:00 PM

    The grip of the world’s biggest banks on the $5.3-trillion-a-day currency market is under attack.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IuERmd

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  68. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 12:00:00 PM


    Investors led by Hony Capital sold $3.4 billion of Hong Kong stock through secondary offerings in April, already the highest monthly tally in 1 1/2 years.

    As mainland Chinese investors rush to buy Hong Kong stocks, backers of some of the city’s biggest companies are doing the opposite.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IZ9Mub

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  69. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 1:04:21 PM


    Let’s not get carried away.

    Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 eliminated the threat of global communism, the one glue that held together Republicans has been cutting top marginal tax rates to promote economic growth.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1HI9d6y

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  70. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 9:12:23 PM

    China’s stocks fell from the highest levels since 2008 and Hong Kong’s benchmark index sank the most in four months amid speculation recent gains were overdone.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1P1ff4g

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  71. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 8:55:36 PM

    China’s interest-rate swaps declined to the lowest level since 2012 after the monetary authority cut the amount of cash banks must set aside as reserves in an effort to boost economic growth.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1P1aebR

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  72. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 7:47:46 PM

      Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), arrives to a news conference during the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Saturday, April 18, 2015. Draghi said it is urgent that Greece strikes a deal with creditors, although its banks continue to meet the requirements for Emergency Liquidity Assistance. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg *** Local Caption *** Mario Draghi

    It’s springtime in Washington, and that means several things. The sun shines on the National Mall, tulips bloom on the White House lawn, and central bankers and finance ministers from around the world meet to discuss the global economy in all its glory and disarray. If you weren’t following the International Monetary Fund and World Bank’s April 17-19 meetings, here’s what you missed.  

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1G90c4j

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  73. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 7:34:26 PM

      A woman pays a street vendor for a bottle of soda in Mexico City. Mexican policy makers cut interest rates over the past two years to boost a $1.26 trillion economy that grew less than analysts forecast in eight of the past 11 quarters. Photographer: Susana Gonzalez/Bloomberg

    Mexican central bank Governor Agustin Carstens doesn’t rule out keeping interest rates at a record low even after the Federal Reserve begins to tighten, given slow growth and inflation in Latin America’s second-largest economy.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1OvyDEu

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  74. From Bloomberg, Apr 19, 2015, 4:45:00 PM

      International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said this month that the world could be in for a “bumpy ride” when the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates, with commodity-exporting emerging economies likely to take a major hit. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    IMF member nations are discussing how to expand the lender’s mandate to include keeping markets liquid during a financial crisis, a role played by a group of major central banks led by the Federal Reserve in 2008.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1O5XzYd

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  75. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 3:00:03 AM


    Time to look ahead.

    With negotiations faltering, the rhetoric intensifying and a daunting payment schedule ahead, there is mounting concern that the latest disagreements over Greece may be more than just another stage in the prolonged repeated game involving that country’s debt drama.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1JY6F3t

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  76. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1adZA1G

    Why Everyone in the U.S. Will Feel California’s Drought

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  77. From Bloomberg, Apr 17, 2015, 3:56:14 PM

      U.S. President Barack Obama speaks during a joint news conference with Matteo Renzi, Italy’s prime minister, unseen, in the East Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on April 17, 2015. Obama said the next round of talks with Iran will require some “creative negotiations” to reach a deal that has enforceable penalties if an agreement is violated. Photographer: Olivier Douliery/Bloomberg via Getty Images

    In a rare turn of events, liberal Democrats are blocking an aspect of President Obama’s legacy, while Republicans are working to make his job a little easier.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ESJIi1

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  78. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 2:52:58 AM

    JSW Steel Ltd., India’s third largest steelmaker, is targeting record sales of the alloy this financial year as local demand for its wire rods, plates and pipes revives, people familiar with the plans said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HKh0AV

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  79. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 1:42:05 AM

    The benchmark gauge of Indian equity-option prices climbed to a six-week high as stocks fell for a fourth straight day amid caution over quarterly earnings.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DrUlmy

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  80. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 12:55:46 AM

    A man rides a tricycle past a tower standing near completion at Kaisa Plaza, developed by Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., in Beijing. Kaisa has been tied to a corruption probe amid President Xi Jinping’s crackdown on graft, called the harshest since the 1949 founding of the People’s Republic of China by official Chinese media. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg

    Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. may miss $52 million of interest payments on two of its offshore bonds, becoming the first Chinese real estate company to default on its U.S. currency debt.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1P2nr4a

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  81. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 12:54:36 AM

    China’s solar installations in the first quarter were almost equal to France’s entire supply of power from the sun.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DrLi5h

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  82. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 12:01:00 AM

      The luxury cabin interior of a Cessna Citation private jet in Farnborough, U.K. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

    Europe’s slow growth and sinking currency have meant boom times for Kevin McCutcheon, an American who buys used private jets to resell in the U.S.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Jl5tWV

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  83. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 12:01:00 AM

     

    Verizon Communications Inc. and AT&T Inc. will post first-quarter results this week that will probably show wireless subscriber growth trailed smaller rival T-Mobile US Inc., a milepost passed only once before.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1P29DGW

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8



  84. reuters.com

    SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Oil prices rose on Monday, extending last week’s gains as a drop in the number of U.S. rigs drilling for crude pointed to lower su…



  85. nytimes.com / EMILY STEEL

    LOS GATOS, Calif. — It is April 9 just before midnight in the war room of Netflix’s headquarters here, where the smell of popcorn fills the air and a te…



  86. nytimes.com / HIROKO TABUCHI

    A union representing Walmart workers laid off after the abrupt closing of five stores last week planned to seek an injunction on Monday from the Nationa…


  87. You Will Cry Forever at This Emotional Speech Taylor Swift's Mother Just Gave About Her


    cosmopolitan.com / Rebecca Rose

    “To the fans, I know you love her as I love her. And for that, I thank you eternally.” If you missed the Academy of Country Music Awards on Sunday, you …


  88. 5 years after BP's oil spill, an undaunted industry pushes drilling even deeper into the Gulf


    foxbusiness.com

    ON THE GULF OF MEXICO – Five years after the nation’s worst offshore oil spill, the industry is working on drilling even further into the risky depths b…


  89. Greece is going to miss its own bailout deadline and the money is rapidly running out


    businessinsider.com / Mike Bird

    Greece has got another crucial week ahead, and the government now looks likely to miss its own self-imposed deadline of April 24 for accessing bailout c…


  90. Mountain of electrical waste reaches new peak


    businessinsider.com / AFP

    Paris (AFP) – A record amount of electrical and electronic waste hit the rubbish tips in 2014, with the biggest per-capita tallies in countries that pri…


  91. Bang goes retirement


    economist.com

    Workers born in the countryside are hitting retirement age and still working AT SIXTY, Zhang Chaoshou has only distant memories of his young life in the…



  92. ft.com

    China’s decision to stimulate its economy by freeing up cash held by banks has failed to spark a rally among Asian markets on Monday. The …


  93. Red revival


    economist.com

    Communists become Japan’s strongest political opposition in the provinces JAPANESE voters went to the polls last weekend in local elections that set few…


  94. Jamie McGeever on Twitter


    twitter.com

    As the rift between Greece and its creditors deepens, a reminder of @ IMF ‘s recent forecasts on the Greek economy: pic.twitter.com/DvpWJfEnNs


  95. The Continuing Depopulation of Detroit


    nakedcapitalism.com / Yves Smith

    Yves here. Detroit is getting the same treatment as Latvia and Ireland, and we are already seeing similar results in Greece, with most people who have g…


  96. For These 55 Marijuana Companies, Every Day is 4/20


    bloomberg.com

    For These 55 Marijuana Companies, Every Day is 4/20 More than two years after Colorado and Washington became the first states to legalize recreational m…


  97. Thin harvest


    economist.com

    Investment in biofuels is dwindling and scepticism is growing MAKING fuel from the solar energy stored in living organisms by photosynthesis is a tempti…


  98. Charting Greece's Frightening Future


    bloombergview.com / Mark Whitehouse

    Greece and its creditors would do well to step back and survey the wreckage as they enter yet another week of brinkmanship: Data on capital flows sugges…


  99. Jonathan Ferro on Twitter


    twitter.com

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  100. Investors Grow Wary of Emerging-Market Debt


    wsj.com / Carolyn Cui

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  101. Foreign Companies at Risk From Proposed Chinese Law


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  103. John Oliver Explains Just How Shady Drug Companies Really Are


    upworthy.com / Curator: Eric March

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    economist.com

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    economist.com

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    alltop.com

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    twitter.com

    People’s Bank of China cuts RRR -100bps to curb downside risks $ FXI $ ASHR pic.twitter.com/HLVuYN6gts


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    thinkprogress.org / Ari Phillips

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  120. Good morning!  

    So $194Bn worth of additional Chinese stimulus boosted the market until about 2pm and then both Chinese indexes dropped about 2% into the close:

    I've run out of ways to explain how F'd up this is getting.  Stimulus and more stimulus can't be the answer to everything after 7 years of stimulus isn't working.  Hmmm, how about if I make a play:

    Citizens:  Oh my God, the economy is collapsing – jobs are scarce, wages are low, infrastructure is crumbling and I did not save enough money to retire so my hope for the future is bleak. 

    Government:  Let's give more money to rich people and corporations and trust them to spend it wisely and improve the economy.

    Corporations:  Thanks for the free money.  We will use it to recapitalize our existing debt without adding new projects.  We will use the cheap capital to cut costs and buy out our smaller competitors (especially the ones who don't have access to cheap capital, whom you have given us a tremendous advantage over) so we can lay off all their excess workers and control more market share without spending or competing for it.   

    When that fails to generate any growth, we will buy back our own stock and shrink the amount of public shares we have so profits appear to have gone up on a per share basis and we will give ourselves fabulous bonuses for a job well done.

    Top 20% of the Citizens:  Things are getting better and we're the ones who vote!   

    Top 1% of the Citizens:  This is truly the golden age of capitalism, we have never been more prosperous – let's go out and buy ourselves some elections.  We are now so rich, we are back to worrying about what happens to our fortunes when we die.  

    Bottom 80% Citizens:  We are going further and further into debt and things are getting worse and now the Government is cutting social funding and we are slipping into 3rd World status. 

    Government:  Well that's terrible, let's give more money to Corporations and the top 1% so they can fix it. 

    Top 1% and Corporations:  Now THAT's good Government!  Now we can use that money to move into overseas markets because the people in this country just aren't spending like they used to for some reason. 

    Government:  Our work here is done! 

    Bottom 80% Citizenscryingcryingcrying

    In fact, they need to STOP CALLING IT STIMULUS – it's not stimulating anything.  And that really pissed Krugman and I off when the Conservative jag-offs use this to attack the Keynesian model because the word "stimulus" has been perverted to include this BS financial engineering that only helps the top 1% (and by accident, some of the top 20%).  Keynsian stimulus was based on giving people and "inducement to invest" through a combination of a reduction in rates AND infrastructure spending.  

    The idea was the low rates would help people (all people) recast their debts and the infrastructure spending would create jobs and demand for materials and would also give investors a logical path to invest (following the Government's lead) in projects that were certain to be long-term growth areas.  

    You can't just do step one 10 times and never do step 2!  

    Anyway, even with all this "great" news, it didn't help China but Europe seems happy this morning with 0.6% bounces but let's not forget where the drops were – here's the 5-day chart and notice the strange place FTSE is stopping:

    Interesting, isn't it, right at the top of the downtrend they were on.  It's as if a massive program was selling, then the market suddenly got spooked on Friday and dumped in a panic.  And then, when China stimulus news got retail suckers to run back in, the main program resumed right where it left off.  

    Either way, we'll be looking for strong bounces on our indexes before we start making bullish bets.   

    Oil hit $58 again this morning and already back to $57.15 but I'm still expecting $55 (remember the charts from last week on what happens around expirations).  Dollar is 98.13 and gold has fallen back to $1,198 with silver $16.035, copper $2.74 (down from $2.82 – ouch!), nat gas $2.58 and gasoline $1.91 (down from $1.95).  

    Woops, there goes $57 – wheeeee!  


  121. You can see on /CLK5 how illiquid it's getting – hard for them to find buyers.  

    They did a good job on Friday but not good enough with 64Mb left to roll (maybe 10M legitimate, so call it 54Mb) in the next 2 sessions.  That's a lot of selling pressure for two days for traders who don't have the ability to take delivery of thousands of barrels of oil next month (and we know the buyers aren't there because the counts were manipulated by ditching the imports last week). 

    Click for
    Chart
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    May'15 56.16 56.65 55.58 55.58 07:09
    Apr 20


    -

    -0.16 5940 55.74 64664 Call Put
    Jun'15 57.75 58.30 57.14 57.16 07:09
    Apr 20


    -

    -0.16 38288 57.32 430630 Call Put
    Jul'15 58.81 59.45 58.34 58.34 07:09
    Apr 20


    -

    -0.13 4137 58.47 225494 Call Put
    Aug'15 59.49 60.07 59.01 59.01 07:09
    Apr 20


    -

    -0.13 2276 59.14 78170 Call Put
    Sep'15 59.97 60.47 59.50 59.51 07:09
    Apr 20


    -

    -0.05 1423 59.56 147792 Call Put
    Oct'15 60.27 60.82 60.12 60.29 07:09
    Apr 20


    -

    0.37 944 59.92 82530 Call Put
    Nov'15 60.73 61.16 60.18 60.18 07:09
    Apr 20


    -

    -0.13 472 60.31 52151 Call Put
    Dec'15 60.98 61.60 60.60 60.60 07:09
    Apr 20


    -

    -0.11 2082 60.71 219759 Call Put
    Jan'16 61.57 61.68 61.10 61.10 07:09
    Apr 20


    -

    0.08 148 61.02 53167 Call Put

    Don't forget, the NYMEX opens at 9 so expect a lot of shenanigans today – very dangerous to trade.  


  122. Oops, posted the Big Chart on Friday's post yesterday:


  123. /CL- Wheee is right! I've been riding this down from 58 since 3AM and while I did get some sleep it has been wih one eye open, but well worth it so far.

    /SI- made some $ on the way up to 16.34 and now hoping to make more from 15.98, which I hope will be a bottom today, but ready with dry powder if not.

    /NKD – also a money maker last nught on the ride down to below 17700 from 17765 and now another chance on this latest pump and dump from 17740. Hoping this one goes way down to below 17600.


  124. $56.50!  Had to take that off the table.  

    Now hopefully a bounce we can reload for later. 

    Good going Crags!  


  125. My brother sent this to me and I thought you would enjoy Phil. I am asking where he got it from so I can attribute author properly. Take that you self righteous conservative pricks! This proves they are NOT patriots as they like to proclaim,

    Maybe the religious right should study the words of our founding fathers.

    “If I could conceive that the general government might ever be so administered as to render the liberty of conscience insecure, I beg you will be persuaded, that no one would be more zealous than myself to establish effectual barriers against the horrors of spiritual tyranny, and every species of religious persecution.”
    - George Washington, letter to the United Baptist Chamber of Virginia (1789)

    “Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, then that of blindfolded fear.”
    - Thomas Jefferson, letter to Peter Carr (1787)

    "In regard to religion, mutual toleration in the different professions thereof is what all good and candid minds in all ages have ever practiced, and both by precept and example inculcated on mankind.”
    - Samuel Adams, The Rights of the Colonists (1771)

    “Persecution is not an original feature in any religion; but it is always the strongly marked feature of all religions established by law. Take away the law-establishment, and every religion re-assumes its original benignity.”
    - Thomas Paine, The Rights of Man (1791)

    “Congress has no power to make any religious establishments.”
    - Roger Sherman, Congress (1789)

    "The way to see by faith is to shut the eye of reason."
    - Benjamin Franklin, Poor Richard's Almanack (1758)

    "I contemplate with sovereign reverence that act of the whole American people build a wall of separation between Church & State."
    - Thomas Jefferson, letter to the Danbury Baptists (1802)

    "To argue with a man who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead."
    - Thomas Paine, The American Crisis No. V (1776)

    “Our civil rights have no dependence on our religious opinions, any more than our opinions in physics or geometry.”
    - Thomas Jefferson, A Bill for Establishing Religious Freedom (1779)

    "Christian establishments tend to great ignorance and corruption, all of which facilitate the execution of mischievous projects."
    - James Madison, letter to William Bradford, Jr. (1774)

    "There is nothing which can better deserve our patronage than the promotion of science and literature. Knowledge is in every country the surest basis of public happiness."
    - George Washington, address to Congress (1790)

    "During almost fifteen centuries has the legal establishment of Christianity been on trial. What has been its fruits? More or less, in all places, pride and indolence in the clergy; ignorance and servility in the laity; in both, superstition, bigotry and persecution."
    - James Madison, General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Virginia (1785)