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Top Trade Review – April

Take this review with a grain of salt as we went back to cash on most.

Still, it's good to take a look at what worked and what didn't – especially since those that didn't are often some of our best new opportunities!  It's been a crazy market environment but we try to find at least one Top Trade each week for our Alert subscribers (and, of course, our Premium Members).  I don't force them – I either like a trade enough to feature it or I don't.  

Top Trade Alerts are sent out once or twice a week via EMail and Text Message from our Basic and Premium Live Member's Chat Room.  These trades are just a very small portion of what we discuss during chat each day, but hopefully a good representative sample of the dozens of trade ideas we share with our Members each week in our Live Member Chat Room as well as our Weekly Live Webinars (Tuesday's replay can be seen here).

Keep in mind these are just snapshots of trades as of today – it's up to you to take good trades off the table and cut the losses (or make adjustments) on ones that go bad.  We're always discussing adjustments in our Live Member Chat Room – join us there for follow-ups.  

2/20 – GOGO was our pick around lunchtime as we liked the story on the provider of WiFi services for airplanes.  GOGO was a part of our Income Portfolio before we cashed that out and it was just starting to rally back from the low end of the range and we didn't want to miss the breakout.  I wrote quite a dissertation about why I liked them and our new trade idea was:

So, for the LTP, let's sell 10 2017 $15 puts for $4.40 and buy the $20/25 bull call spread for $1.20 so we still have a net $3.20 credit for a net $11.80 entry (worst case) on 1,000 shares with the upside of $8,200 at $25. 

As you can see, GOGO went flying higher and that is why it didn't survive when we closed the LTP – as I thought $22 was a bit overdone so soon.  It did dip back to $19 since but now back near $22 but too rich for my blood as a new entry.  The puts are already down to $2.30 and the bull call spread is $1.90 so net -0.40 is a $2.80 improvement (87.5%) already.  

This is already a great time to point out that our CONSERVATIVE LTP strategy still makes you fantastic short-term returns when you time the position right.  You won't get any exciting 300% pops in a week but the main difference is you are very unlikely to get badly burned if it moves against you!  In this trade, our max gain was $8.20, which would still be 256% if GOGO is over 25 in 2017 – also not a bad return for PATIENT investors.  

2/26 – We had another great idea that Thursday as our Stock of the Century, IRBT came up for discussion.  We already had them in our LTP (but cashed now) but we hadn't shared it with our Alert Members yet.  Our trade idea for that day was:

As a new entry (we have a spread in the LTP), you can sell the 2017 $28 puts for $4.75 and buy the 2017 $28/35 bull call spread for $4 and that's a net 0.75 credit on the $7 spread that's $4.50 in the money to start.  

Worst case to the downside is owning IRBT at net $28.75, which is a 12% discount to the current price and best case is a $7.75 gain (+1,033% on cash) if IRBT is over $35 in Jan 2017.

On this one, our timing was terrible and IRBT dropped all the way back to $30 in March but now back up a bit higher than our entry.  Nonetheless, since we are BEING THE HOUSE – Not the Gabler (our core strategy at PSW), time is all we need to make our profits and already the short puts have fallen to $3.30 (up 30%) but the bull call spread, for some reason, is $3, so net -0.30 is only up 0.45 (60% – yawn) but that means it's still a great opportunity because this net 0.30 credit pays $7 at $35.  

We had another idea in the afternoon of 2/26 that was Top Trade worthy (3 that week!) and it was VZ, due to their possible partnership with DISH on spectrum leasing that we thought would be beneficial.  Our trade idea was a very conservative for our dividend collectors:

They pay a nice $2.20 dividend (4.5%) and are a cash machine so owning the stock is not a bad idea but I don't want to over-commit so let's buy in the LTP 500 at $49.43 and sell the 2017 $47 calls for $4.50 and the $45 puts for $4.25 and that's net $40.68/42.84 so called away at $47 is + $6.32 + $4.40 in dividends is $10.72 x 500 = $5,360 and we risk owning 1,000 shares at $42.84 if VZ fails.  

VZ closed Friday at $50.03, only up 0.60 and the $47 puts are $4.35 while the $47 calls are $4.90 – so this trade is down a bit (0.50, -1.2%) on paper – even though it's going in our direction.  Don't forget, we only need VZ to be over $47 in 2017 to make our expected $5,360 (26%) – an example of our "Get Rich Slowly" strategy.  

2/27 – 4 Top Trades in one week!  That's unusual, so it must have been great, and it was as it was UCO, which dipped back down to $7.92, so we jumped on it (it went lower at first) with this trade idea:

Here's one way to play oil long:  UCO is back at $7.92 and you can buy the July $7/10 bull call spread for $1.10 so just 0.18 in premium on this 2x ultra.  You need a $2 move or 25% which is 12.5% on oil to $55.70 to be 100% in the money on this one, which would be up 172% if it sticks.  Over the last year, UCO is only down 77% with oil down 50% so I think it's worth the risk of also selling the July $6 puts for 0.80 to net into the trade for just 0.30 with a max return of $3 (1,000% return on cash).  Since I have no problem being long $30,000 on oil at $45, let's do 50 of these in the LTP.  It costs $1,500 and pays $15,000 if all goes well.  

Sometimes I hate to mention a play to people who missed it.  This is one of those times!  With UCO back at $9.24 on Friday, the short puts have dropped to 0.20 and the bull call spread is $1.68 for a net of $1.48 x 5,000 options is $7,400 back from our $1,500 investment (up 393%) already.  This is one of the trades that is still in our Long-Term Portfolio as it's "only" halfway to goal and right on track as there's less than 3 months left to go. 

It's funny because here's a trade that is now $7,400 and we're still in it for the next $7,600 in 83 days but it's hard to call it a pick as it's "only" going to make another 102% – that doesn't seem that good compared to the 1,000% return our original players will be getting but 102% is nothing to sneeze at either.  

On 3/2, we hit the ground running with another aggressive trade idea, taking advantage of LL's misfortune.  As it turned out, we caught a bit of a falling knife and have since adjusted our original trade idea, which was:

Those LL 2017 $40 puts ended up selling for $12.50 once trading began (about 11) and are still there now for a net $27.50 entry and the 2017 $35s dropped to $13.50 and the $55s are fetching $6 so net $7.50 on the spread is about what we were looking at but with a short $12.50 on the $40s, it's now a net $5 credit, which drops the worst-case net entry to $35 so let's do 5 in the LTP so we can see how it goes.   The potential upside is $10,000 at $55 vs owning 500 shares at net $35 ($17,500) and, if they drop 50% more ($20) – we're happy to DD.

Even though LL is quite a bit lower, this is a good example of our ALWAYS Sell into the Initial Excitement rule.  Since it has calmed down, the delta on the short puts has also calmed down and they are only $14 – far less damaging than you'd think since LL is 15% lower than our entry.  Of course, that's why we liked them – the fear premium was too good to pass up.  The $35s are now $8.50 and the $55s are $3.77 so net -10.23 vs our original net $5 credit is down 105%, which sounds bad but our break-even is $35 and LL is at $33 and we have 20 months left to play.

In our LTP, the only adjustment we made was rolling down to the $30 calls (now $10.80 or +$2.30) and doubling down on them (the $30 calls) so we have 10 $30s against 5 short $55s and the 5 short $40 puts.  It will take a while for LL to resolve their issues but we've been confident enough to leave it in the LTP.  

March 9th was our next opportunity and that day we like ABX as they came back to the bottom of their channel.  It looks obvious now but the trick to value investing is sitting at the bottom of that drop and deciding it's time to buy!  

Our ABX trade idea was:

ABX/Jabob – ABX actually could be a fun way to play gold iWatches.  Turns out China and India is where they expect huge sales as those guys love gold.  We're at a good point in the month to make a bull play on ABX for March and the $10.50 calls are 0.79 and you can sell the $11s for 0.45 and that's net 0.32 for a 0.50 spread that's 100% in the money and can make 47% in 11 days if ABX holds $11

That's certainly worth a toss in the $25KP so how about we pick up 10 for $320 and see if we can't make a quick $180 next week.  

Certainly the IWatch is not going to use a large amount of the World's gold supply but it may spark a resurgence in demand for gold jewelry since AAPL is making it hip again. Anyway, despite gold itself taking a dive this week ($1,179.50 at the moment), ABX is up at $12.52 but that trade was short-term trade taking advantage of the iWatch rumors.  ABX finished at $11.10 on March expirations.  That means the $10.50 calls paid 0.60 and the short $11s cost 0.10 to close for the full 0.50 expected and yes, that was a 47% profit in 11 days.

March 18th was our next Top Trade Alert but it was another fantastic one as we though SCO was toppy over $100 and we called for an aggressive sale of April calls:

We topped out at $110 in Jan but already we can sell the April $110s for $10.50 so let's sell 3 of those in the STP for $3,150.   We already sold 3 March $105s for $5.40 (now $4.50) and they are going to be cutting it close but, worst case, we'll just roll them to April $110s.  We also already sold March $120s for $13 on the spike to $110 and those look good at $2.50 with 3 days to go.  

Of course I also like the long on /CL off the $44 line – as I said earlier, I expect us to test $45 into the inventories but at least $44.50 should be hit.  

The short calls, of course, all expired worthless for 100% gains but the real winner was the bonus mention of /CL long at $44 as it's now at $57.50 for a $13,500 per contract gain!  

We weren't done with our oil calls as, just 30 minutes later, I issued another Top Trade Alert from our Member Chat Room with two more ways to play oil bullishly:

Webinar/Micro – I didn't write them down but I like UCO July $5/9 bull call spread at $1.35, selling the Jan $5 puts for $1 for net 0.35 on the $4 spread.  

USO has less decay so safer to sell puts on though there is some decay over time.  Jan $13 puts can be sold for $1.25 to pay for the UCO play or you can establish a similar spread in July with the $14/18 bull call spread at $1.85, which would be net 0.60 if played with the short puts.  

Oil may still have a bit more to fall but, if it doesn't, you might miss one hell of a buying opportunity so I'm for scaling in at these levels ($44.25 on /CL). 

I know, we already did UCO but that we're never ashamed to make money twice on the same idea – especially if we get an even better entry!  This is a much better spread than the one we got in February and, today, the UCO Jan $5 puts are down to 0.35 while the $5/9 spread is $2.55 for net $2.20, up 628% in just over a month.  I wouldn't chase this spread but it's a good one to keep handy in case there's a new opportunity on an oil sell-off.  

The USO Jan $13 puts have dropped to 0.30 while that spread is now 100% in the money and net $3.66, so this spread is almost fully valued at net $3.30, up 450% out of a potential 616% of USO stays over $18 through March.  This one we've taken off the table.

And, of course, we're reiterating the long Futures trade as they had turned down a bit but, as I noted at the time, we had the conviction to scale in at that level, which did turn out to be the dead bottom for oil that day.

Notice it was almost 3 weeks since our previous oil call as we waited PATIENTLY before we made our big bottom call on the 18th.  We watched oil and we debated where the bottom would be in our Member Chat Room and we did A LOT of reading and then we determined the point at which all the suckers had finally cleared out and we jumped in.  If you want to learn how to make 300%, 500% and 600% on trades like these – the first thing you have to learn is PATIENCE – these opportunities don't come along often and, when they do – you'd better have some cash (and margin) on the side.  

The next day, March 19th, we went back to the oil well yet again as OIH hadn't yet reflected the bottom in oil.  The trade idea we added was:

A nice, long-term play on OIH would be selling the 2017 $30 puts for $4.30, which is net $25.70 on the entry (22% off the current price) and that, by itself, is a 166% return on $2,575 of ordinary margin (according to TOS) so there's a nice way to initiate a position.  If you want to be more aggressive, you can add 2x of the $30/35 bull call spreads at $2.50 for net 0.70 ($70) on each $10 ($1,000) worth of spreads.  Let's put 10 of those in the LTP

Needless to say, that one survived our cash-out and is still in the LTP.  So far , the 2017 $30 puts are down to $2.45 ($2,450 on 10) and the $30/35 spread is $3.40 ($6,800 on 20) for net $4.35 ($4,350 on 10 spreads), up $4,000 (up 471%) and well on-track to our $9,650 goal.  Again, this is not a greedy trade, we played OIH fairly conservatively, leaving ourselves plenty of room to roll down if we were wrong – it just so happened to go our way very quickly.   

On the same Alert, I added:

Another stock I think has suffered enough is FCX.  FCX is 60% copper and 20% oil and gas (boy, did they pick the wrong time to diversify!) and 10% gold – none of which are working at the moment.  In our LTP, we already sold 10 of the 2017 $15 puts for $3 and they are now $3.15 for a nice net $11.85 entry.

I want to keep our short $15 puts in the LTP but let's take advantage of this dip to go long with 10 2017 $15/23 bull call spreads $2.70 ($2,700), which will leave us with a $300 credit on the position with a potential for $8,000 of upside (+2,766% on cash).  TOS says the margin on those short $15 puts is just $1,500, so a very margin-efficient trade as well!

Another case of good timing (when you pay attention to the fundamentals, you get good timing a lot!) and FCX put in a nice bottom and now those 2017 $15 puts are back to $1.70 while the $15/23 bull call spread is mostly in the money at $4.25 for net $2.55  ($2,550) up very nicely (750%) from our $300 credit.  

This is another example of a patience trade as we had those short puts for a long time and, when the stock moved against us – rather than panicking, we took the opportunity to take an aggressive upside position.  So our timing only SEEMS perfect, really it's just the rewards of being patient…

SPY DAILYAnd that, sadly, brings us to Tuesday, March 24th, when our Top Trade Alert at 9:42 was the same Alert I sent out from our Member Chat Room – to cash out the Long-Term Portfolio except for 12 positions.  My comment to our Members was:

If you have a long-term position like AAPL and you COMPLETELY intend to stick with it through thick or thin – there's no need to get out but I do expect either a 20% market correction OR we break out to new highs – it's not clear yet but I don't want to drop half of our spectacular gains when we're fully capable of finding new trades any time we wish. 

That will leave us with a way-too bearish STP and we'll deal with that during the week (if it looks like I'm wrong and we hold 2,100 and 5,000.

Sorry about the change of heart but speaking to a new group of HNW investors – I realize these guys have no clue why they are buying stocks and all this manipulation by the CBs could blow up in our faces – why risk it when we're already past our July target?

At the time, we caught the dead top of that run on the S&P (2,107 that morning) and, just a week later, I seemed very clever at 2,045 (down 3%) but we've since rallied back and made new highs and, taking advantage of some dips, we've added 6 new positions to our LTP in the past month and our Long-Term Portfolio is now up 50% on the dot, as of Friday's close.  

So no regrets at all as to our cash out and we still have over 90% of our buying power available so we're not going to be shy about adding more if the rally continues but, for now PATIENCE is the key.  Why jump on plays that MIGHT make 20-30% when we know we will have opportunities to make 600% – if we just wait for them to come along?

 


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  35. From Bloomberg, Apr 25, 2015, 5:17:43 PM

      Ed Miliband, leader of the U.K. opposition Labour Party. Photographer: Paul Thomas/Bloomberg

    U.K. Labour Party leader Ed Miliband pledged to cap private rents for three years in a bid to win votes from 11 million people who rent their homes.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1GiWD9q

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  36. From Bloomberg, Apr 24, 2015, 4:41:15 PM

     

    What is luxury? A watch, a couture dress, a crown? Or is it having control over space, time, privacy? Is the notion of luxury changing over time?

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1daU0iU

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  37. From Bloomberg, Apr 24, 2015, 8:00:03 AM


    It’s time to face it: You’re not Tony Stark. (You’re probably not even Elon Musk.) But luckily it’s the 21st century, and with a little creativity and some cash to spare, you can buy yourself gadgets that will actually give you some of Iron Man’s superpowers. With these nine gizmos, you can augment your body (or fill your garage) with enough advanced technology to turn yourself into a real-life Avenger. 

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1PufULP

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  38. From Bloomberg, Apr 23, 2015, 12:37:04 PM

     

    Greece, Italy and Spain saw the biggest declines in national average happiness because their social institutions were too weak to handle stresses from the global financial crisis, according to a United Nations report.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1blXUEt

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  39. From Bloomberg, Apr 24, 2015, 3:58:50 PM

      Lower prices and mortgage rates have made houses more affordable, which may keep supporting demand after the end of a government tax credit caused the industry to slump. Photographer: Jim R. Bounds/Bloomberg

    Is the U.S. mortgage market set to accelerate? Some investors apparently think so.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1FkCyU6

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  40. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 4:06:26 AM

      Smoke billows from the Fajj Attan Hill following a reported airstrike by the Saudi-led coalition on an arms depot. Saudi Arabia has led airstrikes against Shiite rebels in Yemen’s civil war, accusing them of being tools of Iran. Photography: Mohammed Huwais/AFP/Getty Images

    Dubai stocks climbed, tracking a record close in U.S. equities, after the price of Brent crude rose to the highest since December. Abu Dhabi shares also gained.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DycEaA

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  41. From Bloomberg, Apr 24, 2015, 11:15:00 AM

      Companies such as Cummins are benefiting from growing overseas demand and domestic investment in new equipment. Photographer: Tom Strickland/Bloomberg

    Aircraft and defense orders pushed headline orders to a solid increase in March, but the underlying details were less robust. Modest inventory accumulation and slumping order backlogs are troubling signs that production will remain slack into the current quarter. This should become evident in next week’s production gauges from the Chicago PMI and manufacturing ISM.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Pvbt3i

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  42. From Bloomberg, Apr 25, 2015, 9:28:26 AM


    It’s the weekend, and that means our longer-form, Brooklyn sourced, artisanal reads:

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1HCWp13

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  43. From Bloomberg, Apr 24, 2015, 1:29:57 PM


    What’s to get upset about?

    Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark and Norway are the world’s happiest countries, according to the 2015 World Happiness Report, which is put out by some influential economists. Three of these European states are not members of the European Union. What are they doing right that the rest of the world is doing wrong?

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1HxgNlw

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  44. From Bloomberg, Apr 24, 2015, 12:15:14 PM


    Not much harm in this case.

    Yesterday, we discussed why the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gone sideways for the past few months. The prime suspects were rich valuations, earnings crimped by falling energy prices and higher returns to be had overseas.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1Fkof1P

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  45. From Bloomberg, Apr 24, 2015, 11:29:37 AM


    You’re going to see a lot more like him.

    In February 2014, when Comcast said it planned to buy Time Warner Cable, an era of continued cable dominance still seemed likely. Maybe not inevitable, and certainly not eternal, but you could easily sketch a scenario in which the cable industry continued to define the way in which Americans got their home entertainment and lots of other things.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1HwMXO0

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  46. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1PwjCof

    Nasdaq at Record High: Maybe This Time Is Different

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  47. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1OOpfMg

    Apple Watch Arrives With 3,000 Apps Out of the Gate

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  48. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1bAqQct

    Breaking Down the Nasdaq’s Record High

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  49. From Bloomberg, Apr 25, 2015, 11:47:29 PM

     

    WAUKEE, Iowa—Carly Fiorina and Bobby Jindal are not the two names most often discussed in the still-forming 2016 Republican presidential race, yet they received some of the strongest applause and laughter from social conservatives gathered Saturday evening in the state that votes first.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DxNDfM

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  50. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 4:26:48 AM

    Iraq, OPEC’s second-biggest producer, will start exporting Basrah Heavy crude next month after offering discounts for the new grade in Europe, Asia and the Americas.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1GkxKKu

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  51. From Bloomberg, Apr 25, 2015, 2:33:50 PM

      Iraqi Army troops stand near the frontline with ISIL fighters near Al-Karmah, in Anbar Province, Iraq. Photographer: John Moore/Getty Images

    Islamic State fighters captured a dam in Anbar province and killed 127 Iraqi troops including a top army commander in attacks that show the militant group’s resilience despite battlefield setbacks elsewhere in Iraq.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1I9T7Tp

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  52. Phil, In the OIH trade, was it not the 32/40 BCS and selling the 32 puts? At least thats what I had. thanks


  53. More central banks meet, but ability to pilot economies in doubt


    businessinsider.com / Ross Finley, Reuters

    By Ross Finley LONDON (Reuters) – Most central banks have been easing policy since the start of the year and are set to do more, but it still isn’t clea…


  54. College for the Masses


    nytimes.com / DAVID LEONHARDT

    Growing up in Miami in the 1990s, Carlos Escanilla was a lot more interested in hanging out with friends and playing music than in school. The son of im…


  55. The New Habit Challenge: Drink Your Coffee When Science Tells You To


    fastcompany.com / RACHEL GILLETT

    Science says we are drinking coffee at the wrong time. In honor of Coffee Week we’re challenging ourselves (and you) to change our habits. I feel like m…


  56. A great way to look at the tech bubble from a guy that survived the last one


    businessinsider.com / Julie Bort

    Today, Dave Goldberg is known as the CEO of hot startup SurveyMonkey, worth $2 billion as of December when it raised a $250 million round to cash out ea…


  57. The incredible rise and fall of Tesco


    businessinsider.com / Mike Bird and Dina Spector

    British grocery chain Tesco reported its full-year results Wednesday — and it’s a total disaster zone. The company announced losses of £6.4 billion for …


  58. 10 Sunday Reads | The Big Picture


    ritholtz.com / by Barry Ritholtz – April 26th, 2015, 6:00am

    Good Sunday morning, Some fascinating material to round out your weekend reading: • The puzzle in active investing (Pensions & Investments) • Forget B…


  59. More than half of millennials think astrology is science


    motherjones.com / —Chris Mooney

    “I believe in a lot of astrology.” So commented pop megastar Katy Perry in a recent GQ interview. She also said she sees everything through a “spiritu…


  60. New Balance of Power


    nytimes.com / CLIFFORD KRAUSS

    HOUSTON — For the better part of the last century, crude oil prices have swung like a pendulum, pushing and pulling the fortunes of nations. More often …


  61. Crisis, what crisis? Britain's richest double their wealth in 10 years


    theguardian.com / Press Association

    The collective wealth of Britain’s richest people has more than doubled in the last 10 years, according to the Sunday Times Rich List. This year’s list …



  62. nakedcapitalism.com / Yves Smith

    By Gerald Epstein, Professor of Economics at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Originally published at Triple Crisis, published by Dollars & S…


  63. Cheaper Robots, Fewer Workers


    nytimes.com / THE NEW YORK TIMES

    This is the first episode in a Bits video series, called Robotica, examining how robots are poised to change the way we do business and conduct our dail…


  64. Bank of Japan set to cut economic forecasts as inflation dips


    ft.com / Robin Harding in Tokyo

    The Bank of Japan will be forced to cut its growth and inflation forecasts this week, but officials are signalling that extra economic …


  65. Obama: 'I have something that rhymes with bucket list'


    businessinsider.com / Associated Press

    WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama says he’s bringing a new attitude to the final quarter of his presidency: Bucket! “After the midterm elections,…



  66. dollarcollapse.com / John Rubino

    0 comments The past few years have been brutal for the gold miners, most of which brought it on themselves by starting new, high-cost mines just in time…


  67. P/E Ratios – You’re Doing It Wrong


    valuewalk.com / VW Staff

    P/E Ratios – You’re Doing it Wrong by Jordan S. Terry, Founder & Managing Director, Stone Street Advisors LLC, Stone Street AdvisorsThis weekend I put…


  68. Analysts: Solar energy is on the verge of a 'global boom'


    businessinsider.com / Henning Gloystein and Aaron Sheldrick, Reuters

    SINGAPORE/TOKYO (Reuters) – One by one, Japan is turning off the lights at the giant oil-fired power plants that propelled it to the ranks of the world’…


  69. OIH/Jomp – In the LTP, we have 2x the $30/35 spread with 1x the short $30s from 3/19 chat (which became a Top Trade Alert).  I'm sure it's not the only time I mentioned OIH, of course.  There's certainly nothing wrong with your spread, which is about net $1 at the moment with a potential for $8 and $5 in the money.  


  70. I read the Bank of America Merrill Lynch story that talks about the disconnect between the behavior of U.S. Investors and the market advance. The article claims that US investors have pulled 79 billion dollars out of the market year to date. It doesn't mention the amount of buyback dollars that corporations have made during the same time frame. Do we have any idea how much the corporations have bought?


  71. In the 3rd qtr of 2014, corporations bought $145 billion. If this trend has continued it dwarfs the amount being sold by investors. But it raise se a serious concern if they decide to slow down or stop the buyback policies.


  72. Phil

    ARO  did we close this trade ?

    Thanks

    Phil


  73. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 7:01:00 PM

      Analysts are watching the rig count to help forecast U.S. production. Photographer: Brittany Sowacke/Bloomberg

    Speculators pulled bearish oil bets at the fastest pace on record as Saudi Arabia renewed strikes on Yemen and U.S. output slowed.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1PIhnya

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  74. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 7:01:00 PM

      A visitor stands in the rain near an Airbus SAS A380 airplane during the Farnborough International Airshow in Farnborough, U.K. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

    At the tender age of 10, the Airbus A380 is already entering a mid-life crisis.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HIzGAG

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  75. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 5:01:00 PM

      Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s finance minister, speaks during a panel discussion at the Brookings Institution on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., on April 16, 2015. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    Greece will look for ways to assemble enough cash to pay its pensioners and employees this week, after euro area finance ministers on Friday said they won’t disburse more aid until bailout terms are met.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1OVE4g3

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  76. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1z1qQMR

    Comedian-In-Chief: Obama’s Five Funniest Jokes From WHCD

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  77. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 12:00:00 PM

      Follow-on share offerings in China could surge to a record $161 billion this year, UBS Group AG predicts.

    China Inc. is turning to the stock market for a cure to its unprecedented debt hangover.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Dz1ylU

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  78. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 2:28:11 PM

    Apple Inc.’s IPhone sales in China may have exceeded the U.S. for the first time in the latest quarter, thanks to brisk demand during the country’s New Year celebrations.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1bIbmDn

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  79. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 7:00:00 PM

      Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, speaks during news conference at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C. on April 18. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    After its biggest slide since being created in 1999, the euro is finding a floor.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1KlqXnK

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  80. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 7:00:00 PM

      Oil tanker Hellesponter Protector, said to be chartered to export California oil, was anchored in the San Francisco Bay on April 20, 2015. Photographer: Lynn Doan/Bloomberg

    One million barrels of oil. Enough to fill more than 60 Olympic-sized swimming pools. And there it sat in tanks outside San Francisco — for three years — despite crude prices that topped $100 a barrel.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1KlqMbX

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  81. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 5:00:00 PM

      Attendees walk past the Mitsubishi Electric Corp. booth at the Cutting-Edge IT & Electronics Comprehensive Exhibition in Chiba, Japan. Mitsubishi Electric is predicting operating profit will climb 45 percent to a record 290 billion yen in the fiscal year that ended March 31. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg

    If you’re searching for Japanese companies likely to beat earnings forecasts this quarter, one good place to start is the currency assumptions.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1A2HCpV

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  82. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 7:01:01 PM

      European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said, “There’s clear evidence that the monetary policy measures we’ve put in place are effective.” Photographer: Martin Leissl/Bloomberg

    The European Central Bank won’t end its asset-buying program early, though it might do so abruptly, economists say.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1KlqJgp

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  83. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 1:00:01 PM

      HealthKit, which synchronizes data from various health and fitness apps, was introduced last year and is a major part of the new Apple Watch, which went on sale last week. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

    Apple Inc.’s health-tracking software is being connected to patient files at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, marking the largest integration yet for the tech company’s foray into the health industry.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1z9rd8w

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  84. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 8:07:55 PM

    Asian stocks climbed, with the regional benchmark index extending a seven-year high, after U.S. equities advanced to records. Materials shares led the advance.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1EH1g28

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  85. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 8:04:17 PM

    Japanese stocks fluctuated ahead of policy meetings by the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan and as more than 300 local companies prepare to report earnings this week.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Fph9Jp

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  86. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 7:25:45 PM

    Oil held near the highest price in more than four months on concern that Middle East oil shipments may be disrupted as Saudi Arabia continues its offensive in Yemen.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HIBQ38

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  87. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 7:01:00 PM

    The first Irish lender to sell Europe’s riskiest type of bank bond is also the nation’s weakest.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HIzzVy

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  88. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 7:00:01 PM

      Pedestrians carry shopping bags while crossing the street in San Francisco, California. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

    Three months ago, bond traders were bracing for deflation in the U.S.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1KlqHoG

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  89. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 7:00:01 PM

    U.S. equities are rallying in a vacuum of money flows, which some strategists and traders say is a sign of losses to come.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HIzRfg

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  90. Good morning!

    More QE rumors in China, Shanghai up another 3%.  Totally insane….


  91. From Bloomberg, Apr 27, 2015, 2:41:10 AM

      Tetsuji Ohashi, president and chief executive officer of Komatsu Ltd. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg

    Komatsu Ltd. reported a 15 percent decline in fourth-quarter profit after slower economic growth in China cooled the country’s construction market and undermined the appetite of mining companies to invest in resource-rich nations.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1OXkSP7

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  92. From Bloomberg, Apr 27, 2015, 2:38:05 AM

    The benchmark gauge of Indian equity option prices climbed for a 10th day, its longest stretch on record, as investors hedged against a further decline in stocks from a three-month low.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1KmwM4m

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  93. From Bloomberg, Apr 27, 2015, 2:30:36 AM

      A technician monitors a machine that manufactures 300mm silicon wafers at the Applied Materials Inc. Maydan Technology Center in Santa Clara, California. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

    Tokyo Electron Ltd. and Applied Materials Inc. scrapped their planned merger after opposition from the U.S. Department of Justice.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1OXjKLf

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  94. From Bloomberg, Apr 27, 2015, 2:22:26 AM

    Emerging-market stocks headed for a seven-month high as energy companies rallied and investors speculated China will step up measures to support economic growth. Taiwan’s dollar strengthened the most in 15 years.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1OXiO9V

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  95. From Bloomberg, Apr 27, 2015, 2:14:37 AM

    European stocks fell, reversing earlier gains, as investors weighed Greek payments due this week after euro-area finance ministers refused to release more aid to the debt-ridden country.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1GyNJKq

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  96. From Bloomberg, Apr 27, 2015, 2:19:49 AM

    India’s rupee weakened to its lowest level this year as global funds stepped up sales of the nation’s debt amid uncertainties over a retrospective tax on capital gains.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1OXiqrG

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  97. From Bloomberg, Apr 27, 2015, 1:47:35 AM

    Bonds of Glorious Property Holdings Ltd. were mixed Monday after the developer made a coupon payment Friday, as Moody’s Investors Service flagged concerns about a principal repayment due in October.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1GyHs1m

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  98. From Bloomberg, Apr 27, 2015, 1:18:14 AM

      Deutsche Bank Co-Chief Executive Officers Juergen Fitschen, left, and Anshu Jain are implementing their biggest strategic overhaul of their three-year tenure after failing to meet previous targets. Photographer: Ralph Orlowski/Bloomberg

    Deutsche Bank AG plans to reduce annual costs by a further 3.5 billion euros ($3.8 billion), cut back its ownership in the Postbank consumer unit and shrink the securities business to revive profitability. The shares dropped.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1GyCBgD

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  99. From Bloomberg, Apr 27, 2015, 12:32:31 AM

    Indonesian stocks dropped, sending the benchmark index toward its biggest loss in six months, on concern an economic slowdown will damp earnings growth.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1bv8atY

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  100. From Bloomberg, Apr 27, 2015, 12:31:15 AM

      China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec) storage tanks stand in the Tsing Yi area of Hong Kong. Photographer: Jerome Favre/Bloomberg

    PetroChina Co. and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., the nation’s two largest oil explorers, jumped by their daily trading limit in Shanghai today on speculation the government is considering mergers.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1diqFmJ

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  101. From Bloomberg, Apr 27, 2015, 1:21:44 AM

    Cap Gemini SA, the largest European technology services provider, agreed to buy Igate Corp. for about $4 billion in cash to expand in North America, which is outpacing Europe’s growth.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IdnQiw

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  102. From Bloomberg, Apr 27, 2015, 2:57:17 AM

    Global regulators will assess the resilience of large investment funds to financial crises as they press ahead with work on identifying systemically important firms.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1OXqKYE

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  103. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 10:21:17 PM

      Douglas Flint, chairman of HSBC Holdings Plc, said Friday that the lender would consider moving from the U.K., where a bank levy cost the firm 750 million pounds last year, more than any other lender. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

    HSBC Holdings Plc’s shares jumped the most since 2011 in Hong Kong after a newspaper reported that the lender may spin off its U.K. retail bank and the company earlier pledged to review its domicile.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Qy4NmC

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  104. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 3:00:01 PM

     

    Russia’s southern periphery is closer to open war than at any time since the 1990s.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1E9kEBt

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  105. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 9:21:00 PM


    Hold the applause.

    In a closed-door meeting with Jewish Donors Saturday night, former President George W. Bush delivered his harshest public criticisms to date against his successor on foreign policy, saying that President Barack Obama is being naïve about Iran and the pending nuclear deal and losing the war against the Islamic State.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1Id79Uv

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  106. From Bloomberg, Apr 26, 2015, 5:00:00 PM

      Employees work inside the Xianlife.com office in Beijing, China. Source: Xianlife.com via Bloomberg

    For decades, the most coveted jobs in China have been in government, with their steady income, job security and power. Now people like Nymar Li are changing that perception by leaving the state to seek their fortunes at startups.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1A2HneJ

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  107. From Bloomberg, Apr 27, 2015, 12:00:15 AM

      Jeremy Siegel, the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Photographer: Denis Doyle/Bloomberg

    Since the depths of the financial crisis, American investors have seen the value of their stocks balloon by $17 trillion as earnings rose 15-fold.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Oul3Xg

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  108. From Bloomberg, Apr 27, 2015, 2:00:03 AM


    The feeling may be mutual.

    As another meeting of euro area finance ministers ended in acrimony Friday, the focus this week will turn to the resumption of — it is to be hoped — more constructive technical discussions between Greece and its European partners. Yet the most potentially decisive discussions will be taking place in a different venue: Decision makers at the European Central Bank’s will hold their weekly consideration of how much “emergency liquidity” they should extend to Greek banks and on what terms.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1HJd03g

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  109. From Bloomberg, Apr 22, 2015, 9:50:51 AM

     

    In the aftermath of the housing crisis, it seemed like millennials might give up on homeownership in favor of a lifetime spent renting squalid apartments in gentrifying urban centers. Fears of that grim scenario have mostly passed, and it’s not uncommon to hear of young faces at open houses, or to read surveys in which renters say they’re finally ready to fork over a down payment.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HtxcWM

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  110. The stock market should be VERY interested in the big wage report coming up this week


    businessinsider.com / Myles Udland

    On Thursday morning, the employment cost index, or ECI, for the first quarter will be released. Unlike the average hourly earnings number released in th…


  111. Greece's finance minister channels FDR: 'I welcome their hatred'


    businessinsider.com / Michael B Kelley

    Amid high-level brinkmanship by Greece’s finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, the euro zone officials negotiating the next tranche of bailout funds to cas…


  112. Paul Craig Roberts: "Truth Is Washington's Enemy"


    zerohedge.com / Tyler Durden

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts , US Representative Ed Royce (R, CA) is busy at work destroying the possibility of truth being spoken in the US. On Apri…


  113. Get ready for a busy week in the economy — Here's your complete preview


    businessinsider.com / Sam Ro

    This week is stacked with top-shelf economic data, include new reports on manufacturing, housing, and consumer sentiment. We’re also going to get the fi…


  114. Goldman Gets Cold Feet:"It Is Difficult To Predict How Negative The Market Reaction To Grexit Would Be"


    zerohedge.com

    On Friday, courtesy of Bloomberg, we showed a very detailed Greek repayment schedule which laid out just how difficult the next few months will be for t…


  115. Can Biogen beat the memory thief?


    fortune.com / BY ERIKA FRY

    Of the leading causes of death, Alzheimer’s Disease is the only one for which there is no way to prevent it, cure it, or slow its progression. A Boston-…


  116. Our Financial Future: Infinite Greed Meets A Funny Thing Called Karma


    zerohedge.com / Tyler Durden

    Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog , All those angered by the mere question of the viability of this predatory pillaging in the name of …


  117. "I’m Not Crazy, I’m Scared" - Why For One Trader, This Time It Is Different


    zerohedge.com / Tyler Durden

    Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow, author of “Trader’s Notes” is painfully accurate with his latest take on the “markets.” I’m Not Crazy, I’m Scared The SPX f…


  118. Why C.E.O. Pay Reform Failed


    newyorker.com / James Surowiecki

    Why C.E.O. Pay Reform FailedIllustration by Christoph NiemannOver the next few weeks, American companies will engage in a quaint ritual: the shareholder…


  119. Traders have been ‘spoofing’ the market and now regulators are finally catching on


    businessinsider.com / Portia Crowe

    On Tuesday, trader Navinder Singh Sarao was arrested in London in connection with the Flash Crash of 2010. His charge: “spoofing.” Sarao’s case is just …



  120. ft.com

    Developers sceptical about the basis for parties’ manifesto pledges as demand outstrips supply


  121. How I Got Converted to G.M.O. Food


    nytimes.com / MARK LYNAS

    NAIROBI, Kenya — Mohammed Rahman doesn’t know it yet, but his small farm in central Bangladesh is globally significant. Mr. Rahman, a smallholder farmer…



  122. twitter.com

    # China may get the # Yuan into the # IMF ‘s Basket in 2016, Bloomberg reports as Yuan 7th most used payments currency. pic.twitter.com/Ocsakd9O6e


  123. Jamie McGeever on Twitter


    twitter.com

    Impact and consequences of a Greek “default” – how it might pan out, according to UBS: pic.twitter.com/TiOnzlQntU


  124. Box Office: 'Avengers: Age Of Ultron' Nabs Mighty $201M Overseas Debut


    forbes.com / Scott Mendelson

    It won’t open until next weekend in America, but much of the worldwide movie going community got their initial sampling of Walt Disney’s Avengers: Age …



  125. ft.com / Gavyn Davies

    At the IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington a week ago, downside risks to the Chinese economy were discussed solemnly, but calmly. There was no …



  126. wsj.com / Daisuke Wakabayashi

    Talk about a tough act to follow. When Apple Inc. last reported earnings in January, it posted a quarterly net income of $18 billion—the most profitable…



  127. nakedcapitalism.com / Yves Smith

    Via the work of the Health Care Renewal website, we’ve warned of the push for corporatized medical care and the danger that poses to patients. Here is a…



  128. nakedcapitalism.com / Yves Smith

    The war on cash is escalating.


  129. The Unit Root of the Matter: Is it Demand or Supply?


    rogerfarmerblog.blogspot.com

    John Cochrane responds to my piece on why there is no evidence that the economy is self-correcting with an excellent blog post on unit roots. John’s pos…


  130. If you guys are into Motorcycles, this looks awesome.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3DiAecsh_0


  131. Phil, in my weekend readings call my attention BLK, it seems well positioned for a bull or bear trend in the next months, any opinion?


  132. Phil / TSN – Presenting at Goldman Sachs Staples Forum today at 2:10 EST