Courtesy of Mish.
Following today’s better than expected housing numbers (See Housing Starts and Permits Surge Most in Seven Years) Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives pinged me with these comments.
Mish – I started tracking these for the first time today – complete historical data. These are two of the noisiest series of all time.
Take a look at the charts, especially the population-adjusted versions. You’ll see why you need at least a 3-month moving average to get an idea of the real trend direction and slope. And check out where the latest data points put us relative to the total series.
Starts: New Residential Housing Starts Surge in April
Permits: New Residential Building Permits Rise 10.1% in AprilBottom line: take the April data with a grain of salt … maybe a tablespoon full.
Privately Owned Housing Starts
click on any chart for sharper image
Housing Starts as Percent of Population
The above from Doug Short
Here is a chart and comment I posted yesterday in Home Builders Optimistic Despite Decline in Traffic; Housing Market Index Declines.
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