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Faltering Friday – China PMI Sinks, Singapore Slumps

I know, it's boring! 

Who wants to keep talking about stuff like China's PMI just posted CONTRACTION for the 2nd month in a row DESPITE the MASSIVE stimulus?  What we liked hearing were the ESTIMATES by ECONOMORONS, who said it would improve to 49.7.  As it turned out, up 0.3 turned out to be down 1.2 so our leading economorons missed this one by 500% but hey – we rallied into it!  

Don't worry, we're still one more dip away from breaking into the 2008/9 low range – at the moment, we're still holding on to the lows since 2011 but, unfortunately, China may have been too distracted propping up the markets to prop up the actual manufacturing sector.  That's one of the reasons commodities are collapsing – nothing is being manufactured on the World's factory floor.  

“The industrial sector has seen no sign of stabilization yet,” said Xu Gao, chief economist at Everbright Securities Co. in Beijing, adding that most of the growth stabilization last quarter came from the services sector. “The government should further step up the policy supports, including further boosting infrastructure investment and expediting the debt swap program.”

ROFL!  This is how our Global economy "works" people.  It's not up to the Capitalists to make things people actually want to buy – it's the Government's problem to make them profitable, no matter how much time and money is being wasted! 

Ray Dialo, of Bridgewater (the World's biggest hedge fund) has taken my advice and is now warning people out of China (a bit late but he finally came around).  

“Our views about China have changed,” Bridgewater’s billionaire founder, Raymond Dalio,wrote with colleagues in a note sent to clients earlier this week. “There are now no safe places to invest.”

Of course Ray, with "only" $169Bn under management, isn't really the World's largest hedge fund anymore.  That honor now goes to Apple's (AAPL) super-secret Braeburn Capital, whose sole purpose is to manage their own $203Bn cash hoard.

Braeburn, by the way, for those of you without young daughters, is the name of the Earth pony in My Little Pony and he's the cousin of Applejack, Big McIntosh and Apple Bloom and the Grandson of Granny Smith.  See – and you thought playing with your daughter wasn't going to help you in business!  

Speaking of useless information – Amazon (AMZN) beat expectations and turned a PROFIT last night!  That's right, this COULD be the last time I get to use my favorite picture of Jeff Bezos.  Well, not really…

As you know, I don't like to comment in the morning post on things every other idiot in the media is commenting on unless I have something important to say and today I will simply point out to you (and to all the idiots who call themselves analysts) that, out of $464M in profits reported on $23.2Bn in revenues, $397M (85%) of them came from Web Services (mostly cloud), the same thing that gave MSFT a mild pop.

Embedded image permalinkWeb Services were $1.8Bn of the revenues so roughly 1/2 of AMZN's revenue growth came from Web Services and essentially ALL of the profits came from there as well.  The stock is up over 20% pre-market, gaining over $45Bn in market cap, which is 96 times their TOTAL profits while AMZN's total market cap is now over $270Bn, blowing past Wal-Mart's $233Bn even though WMT does $500Bn in sales and drops $16Bn to the bottom line while this is AMZN's first profit ever and it's only 1/40th the size of WMT's AND AMZN says they may lose as much as $480M next quarter as things go back to normal

So, Amazon's market cap is now officially stupid.  Essentially, investors are paying almost 10 times as much for Amazon as they are for Microsoft, who have the same Web Services with the same 80% growth BUT DROP $22 BILLLION TO THE BOTTOM LINE.  Are you people freakin' crazy???  

This opportunity is too good to pass up and we'll be taking our first put on a MoMo stock this morning as AMZN tests $600 – expect a Top Trade Alert once the market opens.  We will also be pressing our gold bets as gold tests our $1,050 target floor.  Back on the 21st, we took a stab at playing the Gold ETF (GLD) long with the Aug $103.50 calls at $3.60, selling the $105.50 calls for $2.35 for net $1.25 on the $103.50/105.50 bull call spread.  

Since then, gold and GLD have gone straight off a cliff but we planned for this when we were taking the spread.  The Aug $103.50s are still $2.50, which is more than we paid for the spread and we can roll them (sell the ones we have and buy a new target) to the Sept $102 calls at $4.10 for just $1.60 and we gain $1.50 in strike and another month of time.  We leave the short $105.50s and they either expire worthless or we get $3.50 back on our net $2.75 investment (+27%) – not bad for a "wrong" entry!

Also, this is a huge benefit of scaling in as we started with $1.25 and making 0.75 off that bet would have been fantastic (60%) but now we're making 27% of a larger amount and it works out the same (assuming it works out).  If not (and we do think GLD can dip as low as $95 before recovering), we will roll again and have an even larger position as gold goes lower – as planned!  In fact, we haven't even added it to our Short-Term Portfolio yet, but now we will.  

While we're on the topic of adjustments, in our STP we already have 40 EWJ Sept $14 puts that we bought for 0.95 ($3,800) back on 6/23 and they are "only" up 0.20 ($800, 21%) at $1.15 and you can still play those as it's about to hit the fan in Japan as the IMF called them out on their unsustainable debt in a report the MSM is completely ignoring this morning.  

Japan's debt is already at about 245% of its annual gross domestic product — or more than 1 quadrillion yen ($11 trillion).

"Japan's public debt is unsustainable under current policies," the IMF said in a report issued Thursday. "A credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plan is needed … [it] should aim to put debt on a downward path."

Australia is in free-fall thanks to falling commodity prices and South Korea has already seen a lot of contraction in manufacturing (and Samsung getting killed) and now Singapore is reporting weak economic growth that has led to the first decline in office leasing since 2012 after the economy dropped 4.6% in Q2 – something else completely ignored by the MSM as they sing "Everything is Awesome" for the 10,000th time. 

In a blatant attempt to keep things Awesome in the press, the Nikkei just bought the Financial Times, which is effectively yet another group of Top 1%'ers taking control of your information to make absolutely sure people aren't having any stray thoughts.  

Have an AWESOME weekend,

- Phil


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  1. VIX Stockcharts / Phil – Depending on your subscription, you do get live prices on StockCharts as well and that includes the VIX. You can get down to 1 minute feeds.

  2. Once again, people throw hissy fits about regulations and at the end, it all works out fine:

    With the likelihood of a coal resurgence increasingly in doubt, some Kentuckians are questioning whether the energy expended in fighting coal regulations would be better applied to bringing new kinds of industries to the state’s coal counties, where measures of poverty, health care and life expectancy are among the most dismal in the country.

    “They blame Obama for everything,” said Stanley Sturgill, 70, a retired miner from Lynch, a village near Kentucky’s eastern border with Virginia. “But he’s only been in office for six years, while these other politicians have been around for 30 years or more, and their pockets are full of coal money. They’ve been riding the coal train and not bringing anything back.”

    I always recall the fights around the CAFE standards – cars will be more dangerous, they will be too expensive, etc. And we are today, and cars are not more expensive and not more dangerous. But lobbyists and politicians are richer!

  3. Good Morning

    Pharm—great call on BIIB—wish I had seen it earlier

  4. Pharm- still wondering what you think about ITEK as a long term investment? 

  5. Phil AMZN 97 $ up is faster than I can write 72 now

  6. now 84$ again

  7. Good morning! 

    A recent poll finds most conservatives don't approve of Pope Francis, because he pointed out how their practices conflict with the Bible.



    Cramer is FREAKING OUT about how great AMZN is.  He must have had a bet (or a bonus) on hitting $600.  $590 was the pre-market high and already back to $564.  Puts are crazy expensive and calls too scary to sell.  Oct $600 puts are $50 and the $555 puts are $24 for net $26 on the $45 spread but that's not really exciting so I'm going to wait PATIENTLY and see if they can get squeezed to $600 but it's so stupid it probably won't happen.  

    Gold, meanwhile, is at $1,080 with the Dollar at 97.50 (yawn).  I forgot that we do have 50 GLD Sept $110 calls in the STP covered by Aug $112 calls and the Sept $110s are 0.70 and can be rolled to the Nov $103s ($4.60) and we'll just buy back the Aug $112s (0.12) and sell 1/2 (25) of the Aug $105s (0.90) with a stop on 10 of those at $1.25 and the other 15 at $1.50 as we don't want to miss a rally.  Hard stops are OK on the first 10.

    I also like oil long (/CL) at $48.50 with tight stops below and /RB over $1.835 – also with tight stops.  Watching the Dollar to stay at or below 97.50.

    Up is a stronger Yen on this chart as IMF begins to make people think Free Money in Japan may be running out the clock. 

  8. StockCharts/StJ – Good point but it doesn't paste or update itself, unfortunately.


    Death rate/StJ – Well, to put that in perspective, Grand Prix Racing has a 10/1,000 death rate, base jumping is 17/1,000 and Everest is 120/1,000 and people PAY to do that!  There's a 0.16/1,000 chance you'll die in a car, 0.012 in a plane 

    Holy crap, New Home Sales down 6.8% – that's catastrophic!  

    Have I mentioned how much I like cash lately? 

  9. Wrote calls at 580 on AMZN for today minutes after the open when it was already down to 570 and 600 calls for next week..  As of now, shaping up to be a great day.  Time value falls so quickly on options that expire that day.  Love that some analysts are saying that now the stock can move because they are making money.  It's friggin 560, they should be making $20 a share.  This craziness happens at the same time an analyst from the same firm will tell you how AAPL is expensive right now.

  10. Phil, please clarify the GLD trade.  "Sell Aug 105's for .90".  They are trading must higher so not sure if you meant a different strike or expiration.  Thx

  11. Phil/GLD,

    Is Nov a good time frame to enter into a new trade for GLD? What would you suggest for a fresh trade?

    100/105 BCS?

    Thanks as always


  12. Death rates – Too bad they don't mention coal mining. I wonder if there are differences based on whether the workers are unionized.

  13. Coal mining / Snow – Really depend on the countries:

    However, in lesser developed countries and some developing countries, many miners continue to die annually, either through direct accidents in coal mines or through adverse health consequences from working under poor conditions. China, in particular, has the highest number of coal mining related deaths in the world, with official statistics claiming that 6,027 deaths occurred in 2004.[21] To compare, 28 deaths were reported in the US in the same year.[22] Coal production in China is twice that in the US,[23] while the number of coal miners is around 50 times that of the US, making deaths in coal mines in China 4 times as common per worker (108 times as common per unit output) as in the US.

  14. Last month revised down too.  We're back under 500,000 annualized (482,000) and that's in a country with 110M homes so replacing at a once in 200 years level!  

    Of course, if you think about it, that is, or should be, the norm.  When you go to mature countries, they have 100 and 200 year-old homes as the norm.  But things were built to last back then, our homes were not.  So it's interesting when you consider that our whole country's economy has been driven, in large part, over the past 80 years, by levels of home-building that violate the historic tendencies of human society.  The same goes for China and the other developing countries because, as countries mature – people don't constantly build new homes, they simply move into old ones.  

    Once the preference for new homes drains out of the mindset of younger generations, they are going to have a hell of a hard time restarting demand – especially since a home now costs $250,000, which is 5x a normal salary whereas, in the 70s, 2x was what you would pay.  

    Of course that's nothing compared to this:

    So where the Hell is this money supposed to be coming from?  This is why we have $1Tn in student loan debt that is 25% in arrears.  As I said yesterday, we're making essentially the same mistakes we made in 2007, just with slightly different variations but it's the same economic projections outpacing the reality of wages and a GDP is NOT whatever the Top 10% are willing to pay for but what the bottom 90% can sustain over time and they CANNOT sustain this!  

    BIIB/Pharm – Fantastic call! 

    Betting on a failure, BIIB Aug 380/377.5 P spread for 85c.  Just a few…..just a few.  IV is low on these and will be out after tomorrow, as data release is in the a.m.

    AMZN/Rustle – Your balls are bigger than mine.  Actually, it's still that NFLX short that's keeping me gun-shy until I begins to calm down.  

    GLD/STP, Options – Above and sure, still sell 25 Aug $105s for now $1.50 as a new trade against 50 Nov $103s (still $4.70) - just because they are paying us more is no reason not to take it!  Stops change to $2 and $2.50 though.  

    GLD/Pat – Sure, we are adjusting in the STP but it works as a new trade.  If GLD goes lower, we sell 25 more calls and roll down to Jan whatever cost $1.50 more (the Jan $100s are $7.40 and the $105s are $4.50, so probably the Jan $100s, now net $3 on the roll). 

    Mining/Snow – Surprisingly, in the US anyway, mining is not that bad for deaths (15.6/100,000), only double that of financial deaths (remember how many dead banksters we had last year?). 

    In China, however, they measure the death rate in Deaths per MegaTons – kind of a cost of doing business (stopping work to clean blood off the equipment – they don't give a crap about the dead worker):

    Actually, as you can see, they've gotten way safer over time.  

  15. StockCharts / Phil – There is a setting for auto-update (15, 30 or 60s). But you are right, for some reason there are no ways to paste the charts on the board. They paste fine in Paint (or Word) for example, so not sure what the problem is. It would be great if Greg could find out why…

  16. Phil/  What are your suggestion for the SLW STP $18 puts we sold?  Thanks.

  17. As usual, ABX CLF and RIG are better opportunities..I think even the fleas are afraid of those dogs!!!

  18. FXI- We have the Aug 42/44 BCS. Adjustment? 

  19. Phil, did you stop out of /RB

  20. Charts/StJ – When you paste it into Word, maybe it's using dynamic links that are certainly not possible in WordPress.  In Paint, it's a static image.  It's a stockchart protection, not on our end that blocks it.  

    SLW/STP, Rookie – In the STP we have 20 short Jan $18 puts we sold for $2.41, now $6.15 and we also have 20 Jan $15 calls, now 0.70 and 20 short Jan $18 calls, now 0.28.  We already rolled them to 40 of the 2017 $18 puts in the LTP (now $7) but we never cashed the STPs, hoping for a bounce that hasn't come.  So we're stuck with them and will take the loss or, if we get assigned, we'll sell calls (2017 $15s are $1.80) to lower the basis and it becomes a buy/write we can sell short calls against. 

    As it stands though, I'm not inclined to press it as we still have 6 months to let it play out.  

    However, in the LTP, the SLW 2017 $15 calls are down to $1.80 and we can roll them down to the $10 calls at $3.70 for $1.90 and that's worth doing and we'll also add 20 as we roll the 20 Jan $15s from the STP to the LTP for a total of 60 2017 $10 calls in the LTP and certainly we'll look to sell some short calls next week to help pay for it.  

    Dogs/Jabob – Oh Jabob, has Pink Floyd taught you nothing?

    You've got to be able to pick out the easy meat with your eyes closed
    And then moving in silently, down wind and out of sight
    You've got to strike when the moment is right without thinking.

    You are the like the guy who sees a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow and turns up his nose and walks away because, "If no one picked it up yet, there must be something wrong with it"…

    "Who was born in a house full of pain
    Who was trained not to spit in the fan
    Who was told what to do by the man
    Who was broken by trained personnel
    Who was fitted with collar and chain
    Who was given a pat on the back
    Who was breaking away from the pack
    Who was only a stranger at home
    Who was ground down in the end
    Who was found dead on the phone
    Who was dragged down by the stone.

    FXI/Pstas – Well that was a hedge in case China went way up and we lost our FXP and CHAU (China short) money.  I don't feel good about not having that hedge over the weekend and the FXI Aug $42s are still $1.14 vs net 0.85 we paid for the spread.  It's not like we have conviction China long – this is a hedge we expect to LOSE money on if our long-term premise on China held up despite the short-term stimulus.

    /RB/Jeff – I didn't have a chance to get it but of course it failed $1.835 so it would have stopped out (I'm not even sure it was over long enough to play).  Of course I like /RB again now at $1.82 as well as /CL at $48 for longs as it is Friday… (TIGHT STOPS BELOW!)

  21. New home sales down 6.8% while existing home sales at 8.5 year high.

    Maybe they didn't build enough houses.

  22. NFLX/Phil

    Earlier in the week when NFLX was 113, stated that I'm writing 170 calls and buying some 94.29 for 2017.  On any pop, will continue to add.  I think this market is starting to crack at the foundation.  I am about to do the same for TSLA if they beat earnings also.  The valuations in many of these momo stocks can now be argued are at 1999-2000 levels.

  23. Phil--Isn't having Roger Water's as a teacher the equivalent of you supporting David Duke for the next POTUS????

  24. I can't believe USO Jan17 19 calls are 1.85

  25. Coal/Phil – really interesting stats. I have dangerous coal mining on my mind because Korea sent men to work the coal mines in Germany during the 70s to earn hard currency. This was depicted recently in an excellent Korean movie, "Ode to My Father". If you get a chance, go see it, everyone.

  26. Homes/BDC – Actually it's pretty simple, the Government and the Corporate Media tell everyone how great things are and that makes home-sellers unrealistically greedy while the reality is that wages aren't rising enough for people to be able to afford $300,000 homes – especially with rising rates.  Thanks to QE and such, we never did have a proper home price correction that would have cleared out the market.

    Correcting from $250,000 to $200,000 and now back to $281,000 is NOT a real correction!   

    And speaking of the Corporations lying to you (NAR in this case):

    They think if they tell you it's a hot market, you'll make it a hot market by rushing out to buy.  It's the same trick that worked 10 years ago and, after all – what can possibly go wrong?  

    Embedded image permalink

    See, sentiment among builders completely outpacing reality because they are bombarded with the same "Everything is Awesome" BS that everyone else is.  

    NFLX/Rustle – I don't disagree and I wouldn't be at all surprised to wake up one morning and see them all down 20% just because someone downgraded them.  Still, so dangerous…

    Waters/Jabob – Why, because of his anti-Israel stuff?  I think that's slanted against him by pro-fanatics – I know I'm very careful where I criticize Israel – a lot of people go kooky over that stuff – Jews and Conservatives alike (and don't even get me started on Conservative Jews, how the Hell did they happen?)

    USO/BDC – No one has any faith.  

    Coal/Snow – Sound like a good one.  I know what you mean, I was going to mention mining conditions in the US in the 1800s, when we used to import trainloads of Mexicans and boatloads of Chinese to die in our mines (they used to use old tunnels for bodies) but that wasn't on point.  

  27. It's never good when support becomes resistance:

  28. Phil/homes – A lot of people can afford the homes, the banks (direct beneficiaries of QE) still have overly stringent lending standards.

  29. Pharm/Phil

    Any thoughts on GSK upon approval of first Malaria vaccine?

  30. ECA – down 9.33% today.

    Phil, what are your thoughts on ECA after earnings?  They booked a $1.3B impairment charge but Says it remains on track to deliver its 2015 cash flow guidance of $1.4B-$1.6B.  They appear to be hunkering down fairly well. 

    Long term, do you see them weathering the storm are they another stat in the BK bucket?  I'm looking for a good long term NG as I feel NG will continue to make up the difference with Coal.  TIA.

  31. Slanted against Waters by pro-fanatics? Are you serious? I guess those fanatics are slanted against Duke too? I guess since you love his music you might turn a blind eye to his anti-Israel BDS rage. Believe me, Waters, Duke, and while we are at it Hamas, Ayatolah, and Hizbullah wouldn't differentiate between you and the most right wing conservative Jew… In their eyes you are all the sa


  32. CAD at 0.765 is pretty low. Another victim of the oil/commodity carnage. ANother possible opportunity (there are so many of them now it's too hard to keep it all straight).

    Or I guess I could go buy amazon at FIVE HUNDRED FIFTY DOLLARS PER SHARE. I'm such an idiot for not following the herd.

  33. FCX is the CAd currency.  Not bad options prices for calls & Puts.

  34. SLW / Phil .. with SLW down near $12 is there any point adjusting SLW Jan 2016 $18/$22 call spread for which I paid $1.80 and part paid by selling $15 puts for $1.00 .. thanks

  35. Actually, Jabob, one of my all-time favorite song lines – one of 10 that pop up like a conscience when needed:

    And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
    So have a good drown, as you go down, all alone
    Dragged down by the stone.

    I guess you can say Gilmore wrote it if it makes you feel better, they have co-credit. 

    Another line to live by:

    But is that what you want, to be rich and be gone?
    Could be there's just one thing left in the end
    Your guitar and your pen  - Townshend (inspired me to start blogging – I had actually planned on being a writer when I was younger)

    ECA/Jeddah – In 2009 everyone was going to go bankrupt too.  Oil bottomed out in the $20s, gasoline was $1 per gallon, nat gas was under $1, the World was ending and people were selling ECA for $40, down from $100.  Nat gas never recovered (was up to $14 at one point) but ECA floated around $20 with an $15Bn market cap which makes sense since they lost $3Bn in 2012 (impairments) before making $236M in 2013 and $3.4Bn last year.

    As with a homebuilder, like HOV, who made $307M last year and are now valued at $300M (F them!), if you are willing to hold on to a cyclical through their NORMAL down cycles, you can reap huge rewards on the other end.  The problem is, these days, no one is a long-term investor and they think every bad has to pay off right away and every quarter has to be a winner or they think the stock sucks.  And God forbid the company invests money and borrows money planning for the future – DISASTER!!! 

    Hovenanian Enterprises Income Statement Get Income Statement for: 
    View: Annual Data | Quarterly Data All numbers in thousands
    Period Ending Apr 30, 2015 Jan 31, 2015 Oct 31, 2014 Jul 31, 2014
    Total Revenue 468,949   445,714   698,394   551,009  
    Cost of Revenue 405,971   375,677   579,298   447,925  
    Gross Profit 62,978   70,037   119,096   103,084  
    Operating Expenses
    Research Development -   -   -   -  
    Selling General and Administrative 70,895   66,098   66,455   68,043  
    Non Recurring -   -   -   -  
    Others -   -   -   -  
    Total Operating Expenses -   -   -   -  
    Operating Income or Loss (7,917) 3,939   52,641   35,041  
    Income from Continuing Operations
    Total Other Income/Expenses Net -   -   -   -  
    Earnings Before Interest And Taxes (6,451) 5,391   56,689   35,252  
    Interest Expense 23,030   25,071   20,693   19,880  
    Income Before Tax (29,481) (19,680) 35,996   15,372  
    Income Tax Expense (9,922) (5,304) (286,468) (1,733)
    Minority Interest 1,466   1,452   4,048   211  
    Net Income From Continuing Ops (18,093) (12,924) 326,512   17,316  
    Non-recurring Events
    Discontinued Operations -   -   -   -  
    Extraordinary Items -   -   -   -  
    Effect Of Accounting Changes -   -   -   -  
    Other Items -   -   -   -  
    Net Income (19,559) (14,376) 322,464   17,105  
    Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments -   -   -   -  
    Net Income Applicable To Common Shares (19,559) (14,376) 322,464   17,105  

    Encana Corporation Income Statement Get Income Statement for: 
    View: Annual Data | Quarterly Data All numbers in thousands
    Period Ending Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2013 Dec 31, 2012
    Total Revenue 8,019,000   5,858,000   5,160,000  
    Cost of Revenue 3,431,000   2,776,000   2,374,000  
    Gross Profit 4,588,000   3,082,000   2,786,000  
    Operating Expenses
    Research Development -   -   -  
    Selling General and Administrative 460,000   573,000   497,000  
    Non Recurring -   21,000   4,695,000  
    Others 1,797,000   1,618,000   2,009,000  
    Total Operating Expenses -   -   -  
    Operating Income or Loss 2,331,000   870,000   (4,415,000)
    Income from Continuing Operations
    Total Other Income/Expenses Net 2,952,000   (319,000) 106,000  
    Earnings Before Interest And Taxes 5,283,000   551,000   (4,309,000)
    Interest Expense 654,000   563,000   522,000  
    Income Before Tax 4,629,000   (12,000) (4,831,000)
    Income Tax Expense 1,203,000   (248,000) (2,037,000)
    Minority Interest (34,000) -   -  
    Net Income From Continuing Ops 3,392,000   236,000   (2,794,000)
    Non-recurring Events
    Discontinued Operations -   -   -  
    Extraordinary Items -   -   -  
    Effect Of Accounting Changes -   -   -  
    Other Items -   -   -  
    Net Income 3,392,000   236,000   (2,794,000)
    Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments -   -   -  
    Net Income Applicable To Common Shares 3,392,000   236,000   (2,794,000)

    Buying low and selling high sounds very obvious but THIS (what's happening now) is why people don't do it.  Fear is a much stronger force than optimism and easily drowns it out and you have to learn to tune out the crowd noise – even as it becomes deafening.  Buffett says it over and over as do all the great value investors but actually doing it is very, very hard.  

    We are wired, as mammals, to avoid pain.  Our entire nervous system is designed to detect pain and our brain is there just to process any potential pain signals and decide how to avoid them.  Market manipulators exploit that and cause panics to drive people out of positions so they can buy them at the lows that the force, knowing full well that the stock or commodity they are buying will go higher – as soon as they stop scaring people.  That's why GS and JPM have 99 out of 100 successful trading days – they have the authority to scare the crap out of people at will and they are never shy about doing so when it suits their purposes.  

    Standards/BDC – I don't think anyone should be buying a home that's 5x their salary.  Homes need to be cheaper – that's the actual problem.  

    LOL Jabob, case in point.  Sorry for touching a nerve but, as Howard Stern says, "eventually, I will piss off every single listener at least once."   As to the Star of David on a Pig – it's out of context as there was also a cross and the muslim's crescent and star and a McDonald's logo and the Shell sign – but don't let those facts get in the way of lashing out in blind hatred against someone making social commentary under the silly assumption that people are entitled to have opinions.  As Waters has pointed out (in vain) being anti-Israel does not make you anti-semetic – something his Jewish grandchildren (his son married a Jew) are probably relieved to hear.  

    Opportunities/BDC – Unfortunately, after being burned in 2008 by jumping in too soon, I'm not too keen on bottom fishing just yet.  

    SLW/DM – See above.  

  36. Kid Dynamite gave up on gold miners and is not on board yet:

    The ratio between gold and the miners is getting in crazy territories though:


  37. ECA – thx Phil.  One of the biggest "strategy" changes I've made thanks to you is whenever I start a position, I go into it "expecting" to double down.  This automatically helps me to scale into it, set my alert for the next purchase, etc.  Regarding avoiding pain, I totally get it and that's why I've lost tons on stupid short term trades that I bail out of and, in retrospect, end up losing more than going long term and doubling/tripling down.  I just have not gained the confidence/conviction you have with Fundamental Analysis, but am a believer and am getting there with the likes of ECA (hopefully)

  38. CPLP- Greek shipping co that pays monthly div & reports 7/30  & has a 11.47% annual dividend. Just downgraded but at only a little less than 8 bucks. Can't find anything that looks wrong with it-good income etc. What am I missing? Other than it's Greek.

  39. Social commentary… OK. Talk about comfortably numb..

    David Duke has some African American friends too. Why don't you convince PSW that he is really misunderstood and taken out of context too?

    I know you can never be wrong when you feel strongly about one of your opinions.

    I guess the Ayotollah is being taken out of  context too when he shouts death to America…

    Roger Waters isn't an anti-Semite and is "only" anti-Israel??

    I am sure he has some Jew friends too…

  40. Indexes looking weak at 17,550, 2,083.50, 4,585 and 1,232 with /NKD splattered to 20,450 (was it something I said?). 

    I would think at least 17,500 should be good support along with 2,080.  If we call the top of the Dow (short-term) 17,850 then 17,500 is the -2% line and 17,400 is -2.5% so, even if we do hit 17,400, we would still expect 17,500 to be tested, so it's a good spot to take a poke long.  

    On /ES, 2,077.5 is the -2% line (from 2,120) and 2,067 is the -2.5% line so very possible the Dow can break while /ES holds theirs so watch out for false signals – especially as it's Friday. 

    ECA/Jeddah – You're welcome but keep in mind that doubling/tripling down is really something you want to do with blue-chips or companies you are almost 100% positive will NOT go BK.  That vastly improves your chances of it working out over time. 

    The real key to scaling, especially if you always start with a 1x (out of 4x) commitment, is that you can lose 100% of your 1x and still only be down 25% on that allocation block.  The next thing you have to learn is how to take those chances when you are 25% committed but NOT to take those chances once you are 50% committed and, by the time you are 100% committed, you'd damned well better have some serious stops or hedges in place.  

    So, if you have a portfolio of over $200K and your allocation blocks are $10K, then you are looking for places to put $2,500 to work but, even if that $2,500 gets completely wiped out – it's only 1% of your portfolio.  

    Even if your timing was TERRIBLE and you sold 2 ABX 2017 $13 puts for $3 and now they are $6.55 (down 100%+) but that's just down $710 in a $200,000 portfolio and NOW we decide if we want to DD (the prior decisions were whether or not to tough out the dip) and yes but best to cash those ($1,310) and sell 4 of the 2017 $10 puts for $3.90 ($1,560) and now we're netting $250 in pocket plus the original $600 is $850/4 = $2.12 per contract collected and our break-even is now $7.88 and we are obligated to by 400 for net $3,152, still only 1/3 of our allocation block.  

    If ABX recovers, we make more than we would have on 1x (and we might add a bull spread with our sideline money) or, if ABX goes lower AND we still have faith, we'll DD again at maybe $4 and hopefully move to 8 short 2018 somethings that put a bit more in our pocket and lower our strike a bit more (hopefully the $5 puts).  Even then, if the roll is even, we're only obligated to buy 800 for net around $5 is $4,000 and you KNOW by then we'd be adding a bull call spread!  

    That's the position you're in AFTER ABX falls from $13 to $4 when you scale in.  


    LOL Pirate, Greece and shipping in the same sentence.  Sounds like something to scare the brokers around the campfire… surprise  We discussed this recently, the options are very thinly traded so I don't like them because it makes hedging too difficult but they don't look too bad.  

    21 rigs added this week and that's sending oil down to $47.75 and /RB $1.815 but I like them both long here!  I don't think it's a bad thing that drillers are calling the bottom and poking holes again. 

    OK Jabob, you are right.  I hate Roger Waters now.   Anyone else I should be hating – I don't want to go around accidentally thinking people are OK when they aren't… 

  41. Phil// Thought you might be interested in reading this article regarding LL

  42. lol, phil.. case in point..

    you are right.. Roger Waters is a loving saint taken out of context.. like Ray Rice's love tap..

    and OJ was innocent!!!

    he who is merciful to the cruel will become cruel to the merciful.

  43. Phil a little more color on ES technicals pls……where do you see support and likely hood of holding.  If you recall I am short 210 and 211 spy calls which are making money.  I'm thinking of letting those ride, while adding some short puts.

  44. Phil – HOV covered call

    What do you think at Stk@ 2.07 and short 2017 C2 @ 0.80 for a net of 1.27?

  45. From Bloomberg, Jul 24, 2015, 11:58:52 AM

    Hillary Clinton wants to raise capital gains taxes to encourage long-term investment, making it more expensive to sell stocks held for less than six years and adding complexity to the U.S. tax system.

  46. From Bloomberg, Jul 24, 2015, 11:08:16 AM

    The Federal Reserve said it inadvertently released on its public website confidential economic projections prepared by its staff for the June 16-17 meeting of the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee.

  47. From Bloomberg, Jul 23, 2015, 9:16:06 PM
     July 24 — Bloomberg Politics Co-Managing Editor John Heilemann discusses a coming economic speech from presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. He speaks with Luma Asset Management’s Gregory Taxin on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.”

    Hillary Clinton will on Friday unveil a set of proposals aimed at encouraging companies and investors to favor long-term growth over the “tyranny of today’s earnings report.” 

  48. From Bloomberg, Jul 24, 2015, 4:50:12 AM
     July 24 — Bessemer Trust Investment Strategist Joseph Tanious discusses his takeaway from the current earnings season. He speaks with Vonnie Quinn, Tom Keene and Michael McKee on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

    U.S. stocks fell for a fourth day as biotechnology shares slumped and raw-material producers sank amid an unexpected decline in Chinese manufacturing, overshadowing a rally in Inc.

  49. From Bloomberg, Jul 24, 2015, 10:58:44 AM
      That drop in gold means sterling returns for some leveraged inverse ETF investors.

    You know commodities are having a bad month when 3-times leveraged inverse ETFs start kicking out 4 times the return.

  50. From Bloomberg, Jul 24, 2015, 12:01:00 AM

    The good news for investors in the $3.6 trillion municipal market: only one bond issuer rated by Moody’s Investors Service defaulted during the past two years, the first time that’s happened since the late 1990s.

  51. From Bloomberg, Jul 23, 2015, 9:32:10 PM

    A DirecTV technician at an apartment building in Lynwood, California.

    AT&T Inc. was on the verge of winning final regulatory clearance for its purchase of DirecTV after securing backing Thursday from a majority at the Federal Communications Commission.

  52. Here is an overseas view of why gold is down and why it might be down for a bit longer

  53. From Bloomberg, Jul 24, 2015, 11:21:10 AM

    Things are actually getting better.

    We seem to really enjoy contemplating the money and lifestyles of the top 0.01 percent. The wealthiest Americans garner immense mind-share in the imaginations of the rest of the populace. We incessantly track the incomes of hedge-fund managers and other finance stars, the heirs to the Wal-Mart fortune and other $100 billion families. Don’t forget the Bloomberg Billionaires Index and the Forbes 400 and the wealthiest New Yorkers

  54. From Bloomberg, Jul 23, 2015, 5:50:19 PM
      The Permian Basin in Mentone, Texas.

    Crude oil slipped back into a bear market Thursday, disappointing U.S. shale drillers that pinned their hopes on higher prices.

  55. From Bloomberg, Jul 24, 2015, 1:36:31 PM

    July 24 – Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal talks about what he’s following ahead of today’s “What’d You Miss?” Watch the show with Joe and Alix Steel every weekday at 4 p.m. ET on Bloomberg.

    There’s a lot of economic data coming out next week and the following week. One data point to watch is Friday’s Employment Cost Index (ECI) report for the second quarter. This is a quarterly survey that looks at the total cost of labor in the U.S. and lately it’s been accelerating.

  56. From Bloomberg, Jul 24, 2015, 12:43:20 PM

    Canadian wheat and canola yields probably will drop to eight-year lows after unusually hot, dry weather scorched the prairies this year, grain-marketer CWB said.

  57. From Bloomberg, Jul 24, 2015, 12:24:17 PM

    The commodity collapse that sent gold to a five-year low and pulled crude oil into a bear market isn’t showing any signs of slowing down.

  58. From Bloomberg, Jul 24, 2015, 11:04:22 AM
     July 24 — Asianomics Group Deputy Chief Economist Sharmila Whelan discusses the economy in China, outlook for the country’s equities and their impact on commodities. She speaks with Francine Lacqua and Manus Cranny on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.”

    The effects of China’s economic slowdown are trickling into the U.S. debt markets in some small, but meaningful, ways.

  59. From Bloomberg, Jul 24, 2015, 11:04:37 AM

    Emerging-market currencies are in free fall.

  60. From Bloomberg, Jul 24, 2015, 10:51:54 AM
     July 24 — Keith Trauner, co-founder of GoodHaven Capital Management LLC, talks about his investment strategy for gold and the performance of Barrick Gold Corp. Trauner speaks with Matt Miller and Olivia Sterns on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg Markets.”

    With gold trading below $1,100 an ounce, profit at one-third of the producers of the precious metal is under threat, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

  61. From Bloomberg, Jul 24, 2015, 10:51:22 AM
      The 2015 Dodge Ram pickup.

    Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV is recalling about 1.4 million cars and trucks equipped with radios that are vulnerable to hacking, the first formal safety campaign in response to a cybersecurity threat.

  62. The SEC wants to know if Diageo used the oldest — and worst — trick in the book to fudge its numbers

    The SEC wants to know if Diageo used the oldest — and worst — trick in the book to fudge its numbers / Jim Edwards

    The SEC is investigating whether Diageo, the spirits maker best-known for Smirnoff and Johnny Walker, wrongly stated revenues based on products it had s…

  63. Morgan Stanley thinks this could be the worst oil crash in 45 years

    Morgan Stanley thinks this could be the worst oil crash in 45 years / Corey Stern

    Back in January, Morgan Stanley drew similarities between the current oil crash and the one in 1986— when oil prices fell 45%. Though they have been mak…

  64. US Recession Imminent – World Trade Slumps By Most Since Financial Crisis

    US Recession Imminent - World Trade Slumps By Most Since Financial Crisis

    As goes the world, so goes America (according to 30 years of historical data) , and so when world trade volumes drop over 2% (the biggest drop since 200…

  65. China is building a massive solar plant in the Gobi desert

    China is building a massive solar plant in the Gobi desert / Svati Kirsten Narula

    Construction has begun on China’s first large-scale commercial solar plant, designed to eventually supply electricity for approximately one million hous…

  66. Ted Cruz Accuses Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Lying

    Ted Cruz Accuses Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Lying / JONATHAN WEISMAN

    WASHINGTON — Senator Ted Cruz, the sometimes-incendiary Texan running for the Republican presidential nomination, took to the Senate floor Friday to cal…

  67. Over a thousand Rio taxi drivers block main city route to protest Uber

    Over a thousand Rio taxi drivers block main city route to protest Uber / Reuters in Rio de Janeiro

    More than a thousand taxi drivers have joined a protest in Rio de Janeiro against ride-sharing company Uber, blocking roads and stalling traffic during …

  68. CPLP/Pirate – read "The Shipping Man" for some entertaining insight.

  69. A brazen bank robbery and Russian money laundering have plunged Moldova into one of the most bizarre financial crises on earth

    A brazen bank robbery and Russian money laundering have plunged Moldova into one of the most bizarre financial crises on earth / Paul Radu, Mihai Munteanu, and Iggy Ostanin, Bellingcat

    The bank theft was so outsized and bold that citizens of the Republic of Moldova came out in the streets this past May by the thousands to protest: “We …

  70. Hacking of Connected Vehicles Shifts From Theory to Very Scary

    Hacking of Connected Vehicles Shifts From Theory to Very Scary / by Paul A. Eisenstein

    Sometime over the next few weeks, California battery carmaker Tesla Motors plans to ask a select group of owners to begin testing its latest vehicle-ope…

  71. NYAD at -1,527   low for day at -1,539

    NYAA at -1,412    low for day at -1,437

    Dow futures at 17,500.   Buyers are appearing.

  72. Boeing makes planes heavier to save money

    Boeing makes planes heavier to save money / Reuters

    Boeing switching certain parts from titanium to aluminium to cut the $30m loss it makes on every 787 Dreamliner it makes Boeing, which loses about $30m …

  73. LL/Rookie – nice little review. Ouch! "Management talent at C-level – Negligible value: Recent departures include CEO, CFO, Chief Compliance Officer, and Chief Merchandising Officer – effectiveness of Founder/Chairman/Interim CEO as spokesperson is questionable."

  74. Is the Seaweed That Tastes Like Bacon Legit? We Found Out.

    Is the Seaweed That Tastes Like Bacon Legit? We Found Out. / G. Clay Whittaker

    Clearly, we felt it necessary to go deeper. Here’s everything you need to know. You may have recently heard that researchers at Oregon State University …

  75. Phil   Agree with you on momos,but I'd like to take a poke at CMG with a bear put spread or buy perhaps a naked 720 put 6 months out.I know I'm buying premium and not being the house.How is that different than selling in the money NFLX calls $15 below their high,with margin requirements and all?I'm trying to learn here,so I'm ready to incur your wrath.It's the gambler in me,talk me out of it or give me a potential play.Thanks,I love this site and I've learned so much.Or maybe NOT enough!

  76. Clinton/taxes- more tinkering with the leviathan tax code or better known as the Lawyers, CPA's & Lobbyists Full employment Act. 

    Simplify, simplify. 

  77. Rustle – hearty congrats on selling AMZN calls at the open! "They" even let me make some money for a change -- I bought a expiring 545 put for 1.1 and it's over 6!

  78. Hillary is giving quite the speech on Bloomberg.  CNBC is pretending she doesn't exist.  

    Wheeeee on gold (finally) – popping  back to $1,100.  /RB and /CL making nice moves too into the close.  

  79. Phil,

    Do you hold /RB over the weekend?

  80. Coins/BDC – rather than buy the phys gold or JNUG.. pick up some SLW or FNV shares.

  81. BIIB – well, guess I pulled the profit trigger a bit too soon, but IBB is right on!

    ITEK – that is quite a pop, but it is only Phase 2.  Big one is coming. I would wait for a pullback and sell all but 1/4 holding.

  82. LL/Rookie – Wow, nice number gymnastics but let's see him go out and actually start something.  I love desk jockeys who tell you how easy it is to replicate a business with $1Bn in sales.  Just $500M – why oh why do hedge fund managers waste their time with NFLX and TSLA when Matson can deliver us 2x our investment in sales in year one?  Come on, Rookie, when you read someone babbling on like that you should immediately know he's an idiot.  Not surprisingly, he closes with "I own LL puts" Duh…

    OJ/Jabob – Thank goodness, I knew he would never do something like that.  

    Mercy/Jabob – Interesting, that's usually said as "He who becomes compassionate to the cruel will ultimately become cruel to the compassionate” and is the very mantra Nativ (Conservative Jews) use to justify their treatment of the Palestinians.  I take it you've done some immersion?  Oddly enough, you are really quoting Maimonides, who was known for working WITH the Muslims to find common ground.  I'm sure he'd be thrilled to know how his words are being used these days…

    /ES/Cervant – Anything can happen over the weekend but, on the whole, I'm not all that hopeful.  It's almost a certainty that China will announce something this weekend – the question is whether or not it works.   We looking to finish at lows, oil and gasoline on made lame rallies – just all very sad.  Still, when in doubt – sell half (or buy back half).  

    HOV/Edro – I'd just sell the 2017 $2s for 0.45 (why not take the money) and use that to buy the $2/3 bull call spread for 0.30 and that's got a 0.15 credit and makes $1.15 at $3.  If you can sell the $1.50 calls for $1.20 or better though, then you can do that with the $2.07 stock and net in for 0.87 with a 0.63 upside at $1.50.  I'd rather do 1.5x of those than 1x with the short $2s.

    While Fox was showing Hillary speaking, the camera zoomed in on her and showed her cut off at the nose down to the podium – essentially zooming in on her neck, which is never something an older woman wants you to focus on.  I could understand if that shot, which was totally unprofessional because you couldn't see her eyes, was on for a second or two but they held it for at least 30 seconds.  It's amazing the BS the media pulls.  And it couldn't just be the cameraman because there's an editor choosing these shots…

    Thanks for zooming in on Hillary's neck waddle, Fox Business. #Hillary2016

    Have you EVER seen that done to a male candidate?  

    CMG/490 – LOL, I have no wrath, only gentle encouragement with the occasional nudge..   Anyway, when you BUY a put, let's say the CMG Jan $720 put for $44, you are paying $49 in premium.   Other than delta gains (0.45) that are not mitigated by Theta losses (0.28/day) you essentially need CMG to be below $676 before you make a dime.   If, on the other hand, you SELL the CMG Jan $740 calls for $42, you GAIN Theta of 0.30/day no matter what and your delta is 0.49 but you make 100% as long as CMG is not over $740, which is up 2% from here and up 8.8% from your BREAK EVEN point on the put purchase.  In order to make $42 (almost 100%) on the puts, CMG must be at $634 down 12.5% from here.   THAT is the difference between selling calls and buying puts.

    Now, of course, your risk is greater with the short call but, if you are not comfortable with the risk – how about just not playing a position you have no faith in (short CMG though Jan) rather than putting yourself at a ridiculous statistical disadvantage just to avoid your fear.  

    If losing $84 on a $42 gain is not something you can tolerate – THEN THIS IS NOT A STOCK YOU SHOULD PLAY.  It just went up $125 in less than a month and you are going to give it 175 days to screw you over?  Where is the rational in that?  

    When I took the short in NFLX I said I would absolutely double down if it went higher because I KNOW NFLX is not worth $110 the same way I KNOW water boils at 212.  The fact that NFLX traders may not realize this at the moment does not change my opinion on the matter.  THAT is the kind of stock you take a stand in.  As I said to Rustle earlier, the rough start the the NFLX short calls kept me from pulling the trigger on CMG but I did want to sell calls this morning.  The Aug $750 calls topped out at $10 and are back to $7 already but the Jan $800 calls are still $21 after topping at $22 so I'd rather have those with a stop at $30 (delta is 0.30 so CMG would have to gain $25ish to $750) than pay premium like an idiot! 

    See – it's all done with love.  

    Simplify/Pstas – I'm all in favor of that:

    • Corporate taxes are 10% of all sales, no exceptions, no deductions (that would generate $1.5Tn in tax revenue right there)
    • Any Corporation making more than $10M pays 20% tax on whatever is over
    • Any Corporation making more than $1Bn pays 40% tax on whatever is over. 
    • Any Corporation making more than $10Bn pays 60% tax on whatever is over.  
    • Any Individual making under $35,000 pays no taxes, no SS, nothing. 
    • Any Individual making under $15,000 gets $10,000.  
    • Any Individual making over $35,000 pays 15% – no deductions
    • Any Individual making over $100,000 pays 20% – no deductions
    • Any Individual making over $1,000,000 pays 30% – no deductions 
    • Any Individual making over $10,000,000 pays 40% – no deductions
    • Any Individual making over $100,000,000 pays 60% – no deductions
    • Any Individual making over $1Bn pays 80% – no deductions
    • When you die, the Government gets 1/2 over $10M.

    This would eliminate the need for all accountants (at least they'll get $10K from the Government) and would generate about $4Tn a year, so we'd pay off our debt in about a decade (faster if the GDP grows).  If companies don't want to pay 60% or 40% tax, they can distribute the wealth through wages or dividends or even spend it to grow.  If people who make $900M say they have no incentive to make more than $1Bn, then they are free to quit – I'm sure there are 100 other people who wouldn't mind making an extra $1M each and then we'll see if a CEO really is worth 500x what an employee is worth…

    There, that was easy – on to global warming…  cool

    /RB/Nols – Not this weekend!   Oil and gas had pathetic finishes and then got worse.  

  83. Oh, and another thing while we're revamping the tax code.  ALL states must charge a 5% Income Tax and 5% sales tax.  No more of this BS where Nevada or Florida doesn't have Corporate Taxes or low state taxes and then NJ has to subsidize them while they actively work to steal our tax base – that's ridiculous!  

    Look at poor Delaware!  They only get back 0.30 for every buck they put in.  They should do a Dexit!   Meanwhile, those guys in West Virginia and Mississippi are geniuses at getting money…

  84. Phil

    I like your tax plan.  Nice and simple, but no politician in the world would vote for that!

  85. Phil/ I knew the LL article was full of BS but wanted your take so others can see it as well. 

    About the income tax structure you propose – look at many socialist countries that had super tax.  Many people started to shelter their income overseas, not report their income, pool of black money, etc.  Simple human behavior.  Fair tax is fine, but just taxing the rich to solve all the problems won't cure.  My 2 cents …

  86. Delaware looks like 0.71.  The 0,30 looks like DC.

  87. PETX….time to get a little more aggressive with them.  Next year, their leukemia drugs for dogs are due to hit the market….so, selling more Nov 15 puts.  One could drive a truck through the option spreads, so I suggest selling puts and establishing the position that way. 

  88. It's worth a try- maybe it will "trickle down" to those that need it!!!

  89. As long as we are dreaming about tax reform- add elimination of corporate taxes and go to a pass-through (think Sub S); and, no more witholding- individuals write a check to the gov't each month. 

  90. As long as we are dreaming, I'd like to see campaign reform.  Put a cap on what can be spent by a candidate so that they wouldn't need to spend their time looking for campaign dollars and therefore not beholden to those with the most money.  And get rid of SUPERPAC.  WTF!!  

    The cap can be escalated by the importance of the role but still within reach of the candidates without $1000 a plate lunches (Beohner was just in town for one of those and a quick half a mil).

  91. that was a hell of a week.

  92. Jabo / Roger Waters - 

    So, if you're gonna hate you some Roger Waters and David Gilmour, since they both played together in 2011 for a Palestinian solidarity charity.

    If you're going to go down this road though, it's important to understand that your list of hate is about to get pretty long, but I'll help get you up to speed (I'll generalize it to media figures who've voiced pro-Palestinian positions or who have anti-Israel/Zionist positions which usually has lead to their having been hounded/villified by prominent pro-Israel/Zionist figures and organization for their statements): Christiano Ronaldo, Whoopi Goldberg, Stephen Hawking, Lupe Fiasco, Emma Thompson, Mandy Patinkin, Meg Ryan, Dustin Hoffman, John Stewart, Rhianna, Selena Gomez, Rob Schneider, Mark Ruffalo, Elvis Costello, Alicia, Keyes, Ozzy Osbourne, Margret Atwood, Tilda Swinton, Javier Bardem, Penelope Cruz, Russell Brand, Zayn Malik (One Direction), Danny Glover, Stevie Wonder, Lauren Hill, Gideon Levy, Uri Avnery, Zev Sternhell, Peter Beinert, Noam Chomsky, Norman Finkelstein, Chris Hedges, Max Blumenthal, Robert Reich, Paul krugman, Ilan Pape, MJ Rosenberg, Phillip Weiss, Richard Silverstein, Noam Shaizaff…many more from there but it's a start.

    Considering not-for-profit, academic and religious NGOs in Israel and the United States (won't get into Europe right now), let's see…who should you hate…hmmm…oh yeah: Jewish voice for Peace, Young Jewish & Proud, Open Hillel Movement, the Jerusalem Fund, J Street, Peace Now (Gush Shalom), The Israeli Committee Against Housing Demolitions, Rabbis for Human Rights,  Living Together (Ta'ayush), B'tselem, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty international, International Solidarity Movement, Boycott Divestment Sanctions (BDS Movement), Students for Justice in Palestine (too many chapters to name), TIAA-CREEF, United Presbyterian Church, United Church of Christ, United Methodist Church. Man…so many to think of.

    Time to get to work – so much hatin' to do!

  93. Thanks DC.  I'll have an in if Hillary is elected.

    LL/Rookie – Oh good, I thought you agreed with him.  I don't consider that kind of progressive "taxing the rich" other than saying that, when a person is making more than $100M in a year – THEY SHOULD STOP AND GIVE OTHERS A CHANCE!  It's like when there's a kid at the arcade who keeps getting free games and no one else can play and he ruins it for everyone.  Likewise, Corporations shouldn't hoard profits – either they put it to use or they distribute them.  If you don't have exemptions, you make it very hard for people to hide profits.  Money goes into a company and either shows up as profits there or paid to the owner.  More money spent on enforcing rules on 300,000 rich people by the IRS instead of annoying 300M poor people is a sensible way to make sure there is no cheating.  

    DC/Pharm – You're right.  Poor bastards…

    Taxes/Pstas – I also favor a 20% VAT with NO income taxes.  That would generate $3.6Tn on our $18Tn economy and it's already in use in many countries (but most of them also have income tax).  In our case, it would cover what we currently spend but no extras (like paying down debt) and I still favor a minimum support of $10K for any adult making less than $15,000 a year.  

    Campaign spending/Sewright – Well that's easy, if you get enough signatures to go on the primary, you get X and, if you win the primary, you get XX and THAT'S IT.  No outside money of any kind, no individual contributions (they can gather signatures and vote and volunteer – no more checkbook support).  Then there would be no reason for Congresspeople to meet with lobbyists and donors – they could stay in Washington and actually do their jobs…

    Yep, what a week!

    Have a good weekend everyone, 

    - Phil

    Zayn/Yo Mamma – Didn't he quit?  Sad that I know that… blush

  94. ALL of LIBERAL and Conservative Jews I know want peace with Palestinians and Muslims. What planet do you and yo mamma live on?

    I thought you were supposed to be a Liberal Jew? It is Waters,Hamas,Hizbullah,Isis, etc.. and their cronies that preach hate disguised as caring about Palestinian refugees (who they use as pawns)!

    Waters and his BDS anti-Semites would like to see Israel and the Jews (like yourself) DEAD--from the RIVER TO THE SEA!!!

    J Street.. now that is funny..


    Have a great weekend.

  95. Phil / One Direction -

    It's not sad that you knew that…it's sad that we knew that. <double facepalm>


  96. This is probably a bit nitpicky, but it is District of Columbia at .30 on your map Phil. Delaware is still not great at .71 though.

  97. Jabobeast -

    I find the Daniel Barenboim approach of mutual institution-building to be incredibly effective in cutting through historical tensions to reach practically-beneficial results. Groups with goals and heavy work agendas just have a very hard time when they are forced to cooperate and, in the end, achieve together. Consider this interesting documentary on the successes and the difficulties of Maestro Barenboim's East-West Divan Orchestra

  98. Pharm- can you explain what you meant with your comment about ITEK? Wait for a pop and sell all but 1/4 didn't make sense to me. I am sorry if I am not getting something easy here. Can you spell it out more clearly. I made a nice little pile on that one today by buying yesterday after you mentioned it and selling it this afternoon when it popped over 19. Thanks for that one. I also jumped into PETX, so hoping that one is just as succesful. I want to put an order in to buy back ITEK on Monday at a lower price.

  99. Correction to above post:

    "Groups with goals and heavy work agendas just have a very hard time to ruminate on their hatreds and their animosities when they are forced to cooperate to meet their challenges (and ever more so when, in the end, they achieve together."

  100. Have a great weekend to all – Democrats, Republicans and even you non-voters.

  101. ITEK – holding a 1/4 position now.  Sell all but 1/4.  Then wait to buy back again at a lower price.  

  102. Phil, I have a far simpler and fairer tax plan.  Every US citizen pays 20% on every dollar they earn (no deductions, zip, nada, nothing, zilch).  From the kid at his first job to the most profitable corporation, everybody pays their share.  If there is a surplus the tax drops the following year, if a deficit the tax rises the following year. 

    Eliminating the hidden factory of tax preparation across the land (not to mention the IRS) productivity will increase substantially.

  103. Thanks Pharm, now I get it. Have a great weekend all!

  104. Phil – Have a restful weekend…. You were on fire this week!  :)

  105. Middle East – Have I ever stated it's great to be an agnostic Catholic?…… ;)

  106. I'd vote for a 40% flat tax rate that had a $1M exemption.

  107. With 1020's sentiment: it was one hell of a work week!


    Thanks for another excellent here at PSW everybody, and have a relaxing time during this well-deserved weekend break.

  108. BIIB- Wondering if and when this might become a buying opportunity? The last time it took a plunge like this it dropped down to about $275 in April 2014 from a high of $350 in Feb. 2014 before climbing back to $475 in March 2015. Obviously some things have changed, but this is a well managed company with some solid products still and a fairly clean balance sheet which gives them the ability to add to their pipeline via acquisition. They are projecting solid growth although not the spectacular growth once thought to be coming. I think you have to let the dust settle for a while and maybe find a bottom in the next few weeks, and unless the entire market collapses which is still a good possibility, I would think this company may be one to look at when we are ready to deploy cash again. Does anyone (like our expert Pharmboy) have a reason to poke holes in this argument?