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Monday, February 26, 2024

PSW’s Weekly Trading Webinar on 11-10-15

Phil's Weekly Must-Watch Webinar is now available on YouTube (subscribe on YouTube).

Watch below. Enjoy!

Major Topics Timeline:

00:01:50 – Quick look at the market, futures and various indexes.

00:02:45 – Crack spread, wider than usual. VLO. Natural gas. Commodity futures. Consumers are cutting back.

00:09:15 – It's the perfect time to buy natural gas, UNG. Natural gas is cheap. Natural gas is generally a local product because it was previously inefficient to move it around. It's a fairly clean burning fuel but it's not always easy to get and it's hard to store. But now that liquidified natural gas has been perfected, gas can be moved and stored efficiently. Price of natural gas should go higher. We're like the Saudi Arabia of natural gas. Energy, coal, natural gas. UNG spread strategy. 

00:28:50 – Discussion of how a weak vs. strong Dollar affects the price of indexes.

00:30:00 – UGAZ — too much decay for a long term trade.

00:31:20 – Gold discussion. New trade idea, bull call spread on GLD. Gold is not likely to fall below $1,000, though it's possible. 

00:41:00 – UNG spread, example. 

00:42:20 – IBM: PSW's stock of the year for 2016. Phil's expecting a substantial move over in the next two years. Cloud services, Watson (which will replace millions of jobs). Long term position.

00:47:30 – AAPL example. AAPL kept going lower, and Phil kept saying buy more. IBM is in a similar position to AAPL before its big move higher. 

00:57:40 – AT&T: T's a very boring stock to own. Bull call spread – not the best strategy because the price of the spread is not high enough. Try something else, e.g. buy stock, sell call and sell put. Collect the dividend with this strategy. 

01:03:30 – FXI, China and Hong Kong.

01:06:00 – UNG position.

01:07:00 – NRF position. 

01:07:35 – LL: Long LL in the long-term portfolio. Hanging on to LL. 

01:09:15 – More on the T long-term dividend play. 

01:11:15 – BID is being sold off. Be patient. Somebody sold the crap out of this stock, but the news is not that bad. Interesting situation. Strong dollar is hurting Chinese and Japanese buyers at the auctions. Phil still likes BID. 

01:17:30 – Phil's not very bearish, just thinks stocks are too expensive to buy right now. Main bearish positions in the portfolios now are hedges against more bullish positions.

01:19:15 – Long-term portfolio — almost all bullish positions (except NFLX). Tons of long positions. 

01:21:00 – Short-term portfolio is being used to hedge the long term portfolio. It has a lot of bearish positions.  

01:23:30 – 5% and Butterfly portfolios have long and short (self-hedging) positions.

01:24:30 – Indexes are too high considering the global economy being a dangerous environment. Our market could be dragged down due to foreign markets. Phil expects indexes to trade lower. 

01:25:30 – SPX — Phil thinks S&P should go down some between now and the end of the year. 

01:26:00 – BID again. Auction business.

01:28:30 – Phil likes value investing now and companies selling to wealthy customers because those customers have money. IBM benefits from the trend towards replacing employees with machines. And IBM's wealthy customers (other companies) can afford it

Wrapping up. 


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