Courtesy of Mish and Gordon T. Long
Mish will be getting together with Gordon Long every month "to produce a video discussion of video macro events of the past month."
This month, Mish and Long discuss the EU refugee crisis, a Japanese recession, the US subprime auto sector, the US economy, and other topics. The 30 minute video called Mish's Monthly Macro Update is posted below after the summary.
PARIS CRISIS & THE EU REFUGEE PROBLEM
Mish incredulously points out that Laurent Fabius, France’s foreign minister told France Info radio “If Abaaoud has been able to travel from Syria to France, it means that there are failings in the whole European system.” That there could be "failings in the whole European system" is shocking news? Just look at the policies and actions taken:
- Chancellor Merkel and EU President Jean-Claude Juncker welcome refugees from war-torn countries with open arms.
- Millions of refugees allowed entry.
- Fake passports not detected.
- Belgium, France and other countries allow citizens to go to Syria and fight alongside ISIS and return as if nothing meaningful transpired.
- France receives multiple terrorist warnings from Turkey but ignores them.
- Germany intercepts massive weapons cache headed for Paris but essentially does nothing.
Surely, at least one of those "strong controls" should have worked? Alas, things slipped through the cracks, and we are now faced with the shocking revelation by Laurent Fabius that there may be "failings in the whole European system."
"If there is one border that makes sense to close it is Greece and Turkey! Maybe also Turkey and Bulgaria!"
JAPAN'S FIFTH RECESSION
It may be the second under Shinzo Abe but this chart suggests it has been a Quintuple-Dip Recession. Abenomics has been a total failure, as expected….. but it did weaken the yen sending the stock market soaring!
Blooomberg Notes: "Weakness in business investment and shrinking inventories contributed to the contraction amid concerns over slower growth in China and the global economy that prompted Japanese companies to hold back on spending and production. While growth is expected to pick up in the current quarter, the GDP report could put pressure on Abe and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to boost fiscal and monetary stimulus.
SLOWING GLOBAL ECONOMY & POSSIBILITY OF A US RECESSION
Global trade has slowed dramatically on a value basis (think corporate cash flows) and it is being felt on earnings and investment decisions!. US freight and shipping data suggests that slowing global trade has "washed ashore" in America.
THE COMING SUB-PRIME AUTO BUST
"I have been surprised for sometime that the sub-prime auto party hasn't ended by now, and it hasn't! It is like the energizer bunny that just keeps on ticking" …..
"Typically banks react too late, after most of the damage has been done. It's the same every cycle. By the time credit is available to those on the bottom rung, the party is about over. Regardless, and as I have pointed out numerous times, the surge in autos is one of the few things holding up consumer spending and is also the only bright spot at all of manufacturing. What cannot go on forever won't. And it's nearly the end of the line for autos. Repercussions will be deeper than economists expect!"
Gordon T Long agrees with Mish's conclusions and in fact published this study and video for his subscribers in September:
….and there is much, much more, in this fast paced 30 minute Video.
Originally published at Gordon T. Long's Market Research and Analytics.
