Archive for 2015

CouNT TRuMPuLa…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

GOP TRUMPULA

Beware of wigs dressed as sheeple…

TRUMP ON SNOWDEN

Sadly, he is no different from the rest of the statist shithead pack when it comes to a real issue.





The Rich, The Poor, & The Trouble With Socialism

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Bill Bonner (of Bonner & Partners), illustrated by Acting-Man's Pater Tenebrarum,

Rich Man, Poor Man

Poverty is better than wealth in one crucial way: The poor are still under the illusion that money can make them happy. People with money already know better. But they are reluctant to say anything for fear that the admiration they get for being wealthy would turn to contempt.

“You mean you’ve got all that moolah and you’re no happier than me?”

“That’s right, man.”

“You poor S.O.B.”

We bring this up because it is at the heart of government’s scam – the notion that it can make poor people happier. In the simplest form, government says to the masses: Hey, we’ll take away the rich guys’ money and give it to you. This has two major benefits (from an electoral point of view). First, and most obvious, it offers money for votes. Second, it offers something more important: status.

moping

…and ending up moping.

After you have food, shelter, clothing, and a few necessities, everything else is status, vanity, and power. Extra money helps us feel good about ourselves… and attract mates. It’s not just the money that matters. It’s your relative position in society. From this point of view, it does as much good to take away a rich person’s money as it does to give money to a poor person.

Either way, the gap closes. Never, since the beginning of time up to 2015, has government ever added to wealth. It has no way to do so. And no intention of doing so. All it can do is to increase the power, wealth, or status of some people – at others’ expense.

The Trouble with Socialism

That is a perfectly satisfactory outcome for most people, at least in the short term. But the more this tool is used – the more some people’s power, status, and wealth is taken away – the more the wealth of all of them declines.

The trouble with socialism, as Maggie Thatcher remarked, is that you run out of other people’s money. You run out because there is only so much wealth available… and because the redistribution of that wealth distorts the signals and incentives needed to create new wealth.

stalin, moscow dacha
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When Hindenburg Omens Are Ominous

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Excerpted from John Hussman's Weekly Market Comment,

I’ve frequently noted that Hindenburg “Omens” in their commonly presented form (NYSE new highs and new lows both greater than 2.5% of issues traded) appear so frequently that they have very little practical use, especially when they occur as single instances. While a large number of simultaneous new highs and new lows is indicative of some amount of internal dispersion across individual stocks, this situation often occurs in markets that have been somewhat range-bound.

Still, when we think of market “internals,” the number of new highs and new lows can contribute useful information. To expand on the vocabulary we use to talk about internals, “leadership” typically refers to the number of stocks achieving new highs and new lows; “breadth” typically refers to the number of stocks advancing versus declining in a given day or week; and “participation” typically refers to the percentage of stocks that are advancing or declining in tandem with the major indices.

The original basis for the Hindenburg signal traces back to the “high-low logic index” that Norm Fosback created in the 1970’s. Jim Miekka introduced the Hindenburg as a daily rather than weekly measure, Kennedy Gammage gave it the ominous name, and Peter Eliades later added several criteria to reduce the noise of one-off signals, requiring additional confirmation that amounts to a requirement that more than one signal must emerge in the context of an advancing market with weakening breadth.

Those refinements substantially increase the usefulness of Hindenburg Omens, but they still emerge too frequently to identify decisive breakdowns in market internals. However, one could reasonably infer a very unfavorable signal about market internals if leadership, breadth, and participation were all uniformly negative at a point where the major indices were still holding up. Indeed, that’s exactly the situation in which a Hindenburg Omen becomes ominous. The chart below identifies the small handful of instances in the past two decades when this has been true.  

While the measures of market internals that we use in practice are far more comprehensive, the evidence from leadership, breadth and participation above provides a fairly obvious signal of internal dispersion in the market. In our view, that dispersion is a strong indication that investors are shifting toward greater risk aversion.…
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China Plunges 13% Since July Despite The Following 24 Market Manipulation Measures

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

"The greatest trick the central planners ever pulled was convincing the world omnipotence existed…" until now!

Since July 1st, China has unleashed at least 24 separate "measures" aimed purely and simpy at manipulating the stock market higher than prevailing market forces would warrant…

And the result is…

A 12.5% decline exposing the un-omnipotence of central planners when the fecal matter strikes the rotating object.





Gold Holds Its Own Against These Media Darlings

By Frank Holmes. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Gold Holds Its Own Against These Media Darlings by Frank Holmes

By Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Global Investors

There’s no other way to put it: Commodities took it on the chin last month.

July was the seventh worst performing month for the S&P Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) Commodities Index, going back to January 1970. Crude oil saw its steepest monthly loss since October 2008. Both copper and aluminum touched their lowest levels in six years. And on July 19, possibly as a result of deliberate price manipulation, gold experienced a mini flash crash, sending it down to five-year lows.

Gold

Regardless, several commodities are beating the exchange-traded funds that track them for the one-year period, according to the Wall Street Journal. Our Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) is over 1,900 basis points ahead of the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) year-to-date.

But that hasn’t stopped many gold bears from using this as an opportunity to disparage the yellow metal. A recent Bloomberg article points out that the gold rout has cost China and Russia $5.4 billion, an amount that would sound colossal were it not for the fact that U.S. media companies such as The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) and Viacom collectively lost over $60 billion for shareholders in as little as two days this week.

Below are the weekly losses for just a handful of those companies. Compared to many other asset classes, gold has held up well, even after factoring in its price decline.

Gold

And isn’t it funny that the Federal Reserve doesn’t keep other countries’ currencies, but it continues to hold gold—and in larger amounts than any other central bank? China and Russia have two of the biggest gold reserves in the world—and have added to them recently—but they don’t come close to the Fed’s holdings, even when combined. What’s more, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of the Comptroller of the Currency just classified gold as money by placing gold futures in the foreign exchange derivatives classification.

Gold Indeed, central banks all over the world continue to add to their gold reserves. If the metal were as valueless as a pet rock, as one op-ed recently claimed, why would they bother to do this? A


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Guest Post: Will Trump Save The World (By Doing A Deal With Putin)?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Edward Lozansky via Sputnik News,

For the past few weeks we have heard plenty of statements from Washington about the huge threat to U.S. National Security coming from Russia. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter and top Pentagon brass are convinced — or say they are — that the Russian threat is an absolute reality. The latest in this row is the statement by the Head of the US Special Operations Command General Joseph Votel, who also views Russia as an "existential threat" to the United States, repeating accusations against Moscow over the Ukrainian crisis.

In Congress, the party of war keeps pushing the same line but If this were only related to the upcoming budget sequestration discussion — which, among other things, can affect the Pentagon — one could dismiss this incessant talk of an imminent Russian threat as a simple money extortion exercise. However, I am afraid it is not just about money.

Washington hawks want regime change in Russia, no more and no less. Their hatred of Putin, who has the guts to have his own opinion of world affairs, and who stands firm for his country's right to look after its security interests, makes him the ultimate evil — someone who has to go and be replaced by a more malleable character. A person like Boris Yeltsin, who knew who is running the show on the world stage and humbly accepted this sober fact.

It's a different question how to achieve Putin's overthrow without a major military confrontation with Russia, a conflict that can well end in a conflagration engulfing the whole planet. It is one thing to perform regime change in Iraq, Libya or Ukraine but dealing with nuclear-armed Russia is quite a different matter.

Presently the hawks' thinking is still at the stage where they believe they can get rid of Putin through economic sanctions and by using the conflict in Ukraine to exhaust Russia's strength, ruin its economy and undermine its stability. There is no question that substantial damage to Russian economy has been done. It is not "in tatters," as Mr. Obama recently gloated, but is definitely shrinking and the number of people living below the poverty line has indeed increased. However, Putin's popularity is not heading south; on the contrary, his ratings jump a point or two every time another angry anti-Putin rebuke from Washington hits the airwaves.

Instead of accepting the failure of the current policy of sanctions and start searching for some kind of reasonable compromise, the party of war is pushing for escalation in tensions which can end up really badly for everyone. Any incident, however unintentional and insignificant in itself, can grow into something that we all — or rather those


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Hillary Makes Her First Ad Buy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Fact… or Fiction…?

Source: Townhall.com





China’s Exports Plunge 8% in July; Spotlight on US Trade Imbalance With China

 

Courtesy of Mish.

In addition to bubble-busting events in real estate and the Chinese stock market, China now has to deal with a plunge in exports.

Following Saturday's report Chinese Exports Slump Over Eight Percent, analysts expect more China stimulus.

Chinese exports tumbled 8.3 percent in July, their biggest drop in four months and far worse than expected, reinforcing expectations that Beijing will be forced to roll out more stimulus to support the world's second-largest economy.

Imports also fell heavily from a year earlier, in line with market forecasts but suggesting domestic demand might be too feeble to offset the weaker global demand for China's exports.

Exports to the European Union fell 12.3 percent in July while those to the United States dropped 1.3 percent. Demand from Japan, another big trading partner, slid 13 percent.

"A recovery in external demand remains far off and economic growth will continue to rely on domestic demand, which implies policies should continue to be relaxed in the second half," wrote Qu Hongbin, China economist at global bank HSBC.

China recorded a trade surplus of $43.03 billion for the month, below forecasts of $53.25 billion.

Economists also blame a strong yuan for the export weakness, with ANZ Research estimating the currency's nominal effective exchange rate has risen by 13.5 percent since June 2014.

Analysts say Beijing has been keeping its yuan strong to wean its economy off low-end export manufacturing. A strong yuan policy also supports domestic buying power, helps Chinese firms to borrow and invest abroad, and encourages foreign firms and governments to increase their use of the currency.

"These factors suggest that China's exports will continue to face strong headwinds," Liu Ligang and Louis Lam said in an ANZ Research note on Saturday, adding that they doubted Beijing would hit its trade growth target of 6 percent for this year.

Cries for More Stimulus

Excessive stimulus created property bubbles and an enormous stock market bubble.

The average stock speculator has not even graduated from high school. The Washington Post reports:…

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“They’ll Blame Physical Gold Holders For The Failure Of Monetary Policies” Marc Faber Explains Everything

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Johannes Maierhofer and Peter Matay via Marcopolis.net,

In this exclusive interview with Marcopolis.net Marc Faber covers it all: from commodities and China to the outlook on inflation, the Euro and gold. According to him the global economy is not healing. To the contrary, we might find ourselves back into recession within six months or a year. In that case he expects more money printing by central banks, which eventually could lead to high inflation rates and renewed strength in commodity prices.

On the bright side, he sees great economic potential in Vietnam. Also, the Iraqi stock market has good potential now that a deal with Iran has been reached. While mining stocks are extremely depressed we might see defaults before any meaningful recovery.

*  *  *
In your 2002 book “Tomorrow’s gold” you identified two major investment themes: emerging markets along with commodities. That was a great call. As for commodities, they had a great run up until 2008. Then they crashed sharply along with everything else just to recover strongly into 2011. Since then they have acted weakly, and recently commodities even reached a 13-years low. Is this the end of the commodities-super-cycle, as some have claimed, or is it more like a correction?

Well that’s a very good question because obviously the weakness in commodities this time is not due to, like, contraction in liquidity as we had in 2008. 2008 commodities ran up very quickly in the first half until July. The oil prices in 2007, just before they started to cut interest rates in the US were still at 78 dollars a barrel and then by July 2008 they ran up to 147 dollars a barrel. Afterwards they crashed within six months to 32 dollars a barrel and then as you said in 2011-2012, they recovered and were trading around 100 dollars a barrel. Now they have been weak again as well as all other industrial commodities and precious metals.

My sense is that this time around, commodity prices are weak because of weakness in the global economy, specifically weakening demand from China, because if you look at the Chinese consumption of industrial commodities, in 1970 China consumed 2% of all industrial commodities, by 1990 it was 5% of global commodity consumption for industrial commodities and by the


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Startups Getting Trashed

It's a little ironic that we keep finding ways to sit on our collective asses longer while bemoaning the soaring costs of drugs and medical services. 

Startups Getting Trashed

Courtesy of Tim Knight from Slope of Hope, originally posted at Zero Hedge.

Well, the San Francisco Bay Area startup-for-everything economy has now reached a new low:

0809-trashday

Interested, eh? Well, there are plenty of details. I personally take comfort from the pledge that the people paid to drag my trash can will be rated by the community ("'A+++++++ Would let drag my recycling to the curb again.")

0809-trashsec 

Of course, none of this is free.

0809-trashprice

Happily, Silicon Valley hasn't lost its sense of humor. Not to be outdone, this parody site has appeared:

0809-silver





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Brexit identities: how Leave versus Remain replaced Conservative versus Labour affiliations of British voters

 

Brexit identities: how Leave versus Remain replaced Conservative versus Labour affiliations of British voters

Courtesy of Geoffrey Evans, University of Oxford and Florian Schaffner, University of Oxford

British politics was relatively stable in the post-war decades, and voters’ strong party loyalties were influenced by their place in society. More recently, there has been a marked decline in the number of people identifying with a political party, and in the strength of that attachment.

Now, our new research for a repor...



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Zero Hedge

Stocks Jump On Kudlow Denial: "There Is No Cancellation. None. Zero."

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

"There are no cancellations. None. Zero. Let's put that to rest."

Hours after a headline from the FT about the US cancelling a round of trade talks with two senior Chinese ministers send stocks reeling to their lows of the day, the administration has dispatched Larry Kudlow (who apparently had to wait until 20 mins before the close thanks to CNBC's wall-to-wall Davos coverage) to jawbone the markets back into the green by...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P and Crude both testing key breakout levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The correlation between Crude Oil and the S&P 500 has been rather high over the last 100-days, as each looks to have peaked at the same time around the 1st of October at (1).

After peaking together in October, Crude fell over 40% and the S&P nearly declined 20%, with both bottoming on Christmas Eve at each (2).

Both have experienced counter-trend rallies since the lows, as Crude is up 23% and the S&P 13%.

These rallies have both testing dual resist...



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Insider Scoop

Cowen Suits Up With Nike, Looks To Outperform

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NKE Consumer Discretionary Q4 Earnings: U.S. Consumer Appears Strong Amid Heightened Global Uncertainty Golf Equipmen...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 20, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

After entering the week quite overbought, indexes took a small retreat Monday before hurling back upwards.  This is typical of the “V” shaped moves up after any significant selloff, we’ve seen most of the past decade and watching them unfurl is quite amazing actually.  Thought maybe this time would be “different” but not so much.  So two week’s ago we asked “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problem in 1 speech?” – and thus far the market has answered resoundingly yes.  The word of the year thus far in 2019 is “patience” as that simple insert into a speech change the whole complexion of everything.

China has also been busy stimulating; on Tuesday:

An announcement from the People’s Bank of China that ...



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ValueWalk

Everyone Else Is Selling Stocks, So Is It Time To Buy?

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

After a difficult few trading days in the beginning of the year, U.S. stocks are bouncing back with meaningful gains on Monday following Friday’s strong rally. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 were all up by more than half a percent by midday. It looks like investors could be taking advantage of the end-of-the-year declines, but is this a wise time to be buying?

Trying to time the bottom of the market will almost always be a fool’s errand, but one firm suggests equities could have much farther to fall before they hit bottom in 2019.

...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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