Archive for 2015

“Teflon” Trump Remains Double-Digit Leader In Post-Debate Poll

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Despite rumors, spin, Koch Brothers’ spending, and FOX News’ efforts, “Teflon” Donald Trump remains the clear leader in the first post-debate poll.

As NBC News reports,

According to the latest NBC News Online Poll conducted by SurveyMonkey, Trump is at the top of the list of GOP candidates that Republican primary voters would cast a ballot for if the primary were being held right now.

The overnight poll was conducted for 24 hours from Friday evening into Saturday. During that period, Donald Trump stayed in the headlines due to his negative comments about Kelly and was dis-invited from a major conservative gathering in Atlanta.

None of that stopped Trump from coming in at the top of the poll with 23 percent.

* * *

Carly Fiorina has surged into 4th place after her undercard victory this week and perhaps most stunningly for the ‘establishment’, Jeb Bush has dropped out of the Top 5.





Late Recovery – But Is It Enough?

Courtesy of Declan.

After Thursday’s selling there was some follow through in the morning, but buyers stepped up to the plate to retake most of the losses by the close of business. Not all indices are in the same degree of trouble, and for some, range bound trading remains.



The Nasdaq closed above a former support level of 5,038, but with range support down at 4,900 what’s happening now is mostly noise. The Nasdaq is still a distance away from a 200-day MA test, and while certain indices are testing (or have lost) such support, Tech indices have left bulls with plenty of room for maneuver.





The S&P tagged the 200-day MA, and surpassed it a little, before it recovered. Technicals remain net negative, but Slow Stochastics are not oversold, a scenario which would offer bulls something more to work with on this test. However, the 200-day MA has already seen two tests in July, third time lucky for a break?




The Dow said ‘goodbye’ to its 200-day MA back in July, and it’s close to a ‘Death Cross’ between 50-day and 200-day MAs. Bulls make look to declining selling volume after a series of distribution days as seller exhaustion. Next support is down around 17000.




The Russell 2000 had a disappointing finish. While it recovered some of Friday’s loss it wasn’t enough to regain its 200-day MA. Technicals are weak too. If there is a bounce on Monday, watch how it reacts if its gets to its 200-day MA.




However, bulls are perhaps best to watch the Semiconductor Index. It’s sitting very nicely on wedge support and was one of the few sectors to post a gain on Friday.




For Monday, bears will be looking for continued expansion of weakness in the Dow and new losses in the Russell 2000. Bulls can watch the Semiconductor Index and the Tech indices.



You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.







Cop Acquitted In Murder Of Kelly Thomas Just Arrested For Domestic Violence

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Sydney Barakat via TheAntiMedia.org,

Manuel Ramos, 41, the former Fullerton police officer who was ultimately acquitted after being tried for the beating and killing of Kelly Thomas, has been arrested once more—this time for domestic violence.

Thomas—an unarmed, mentally-ill homeless man—was brutally beaten to death by Ramos and two fellow officers in the summer of 2011. Two of the officers—Ramos, as well as Jay Cicinelli—were tried and acquitted of the murder. From the beginning, the case received nationwide coverage. A slew of peaceful protests resulted from the several injustices that were committed in this gut-wrenching case of excessive violence and abuse of power.

Now, Ramos has been arrested again. As ABC7 news reported,

“Police respond[ed] to a report of a family disturbance [and] arrested Manuel Ramos on July 16 after he allegedly assaulted a woman in the 3600 block of W. Oak Avenue.”

 Ramos was then booked on the charge of misdemeanor domestic violence, but soon after posted bail and was released. According to the report, the case still remains under investigation.

This goes to show that when violent criminals are granted impunity, when they are let off the hook without even a slap on the wrist, they will continue their horrendous cycle of abuse of power and violence. When these murderers are exonerated without consequence, they are assisted in committing further assaults—in this case, domestic violence.

Manuel-Ramos-mugshots

Mugshots of former officer Manuel Ramos.

Does Ramos lack so much compassion that he must beat the defenseless? First a mentally-ill man who was small in stature, then a woman.

What is more ridiculous is that journalists and live-streamers who covered the Kelly Thomas case are being dragged through a long and tedious court ordeal. They are facing charges, trials, and time in prison for simply filming and documenting the protests that occurred as result of the officers’ acquittals. Our own Patti Beers—also known as “P.M.” on her social media accounts—is facing such absurd charges for filming the acquittal protests. Patti’s trial has been covered by the Anti-Media, The Fifth Column, OC Weekly, AnonHQ, and more.

This case of police brutality and major injustices committed by law enforcement force us to ask:

when will


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Never Forget – “Worthlessness” Happens

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It could never happen here, right? Again…

h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer





Luxury Goods And Status Symbols In Trouble In China

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man blog,

A friend recently mailed us an article from the Hong Kong Standard which describes how extremely high retail shop rents in Hong Kong can no longer be paid even by retailers of luxury brands.

Not only is this testament to the fact that Hong Kong’s real estate bubble has gotten out of hand quite a bit, but the waning demand for luxury goods is also highly interesting from a sociological and economic perspective. As the Standard reports:

Business is getting tougher for Hong Kong’s retailers with the value of total retail sales dipping 1.6 percent in the first half of 2015 from a year back, according to the Census and Statistics Department’s latest data.

Valuable gifts, including jewelry, watches and luxury goods, were hardest hit, with sales falling for 10 consecutive months. Sales value slumped 10.4 percent in June compared with a year earlier, despite efforts by several luxury brands – including Italian fashion house Prada – to boost sales by cutting prices. Squeezed by slimmer pickings in Hong Kong and the mainland market, top global luxury brands are looking to renegotiate store rents to cut costs.

The latest to plead for landlords’ mercy was French luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. Revenue from its signature brand Louis Vuitton slumped 10 percent year- on-year in Hong Kong, Macau and China for the first half while Europe and the United States saw stronger sales of fashion and leather goods. It is also planning to close a directly operated shop of its biggest watch brand, Tag Heuer, in Causeway Bay.

[…]

British high-end fashion house Burberry, which has 16 shops in the SAR, said it may trim its local store network and negotiate for lower rents after the Hong Kong market, which accounts for about one-tenth of the brand’s total sales, saw a double-digit percentage fall in sales over the period.

Meanwhile, Gucci owner Kering said it will consider closing its Hong Kong and Macau outlets if rents stay high.

[…]

Waning sales and whopping rents have sent Italian fashion label Baldinini packing. It shut its first and only flagship boutique in Hong Kong after just four months in operation, ending its three- year contract.

In June, visitor arrivals from the mainland were down 1.8 percent year- on-year. Adding to the woes


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Bob Olstein Is Heavily Bullish On GM And DDS

By Benzinga. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bob Olstein Is Heavily Bullish On GM And DDS by Ritesh Anan, Benzinga

H/T Dataroma

Renowned value investor, chairman and CIO of Olstein Capital Management, Robert “Bob” Olstein, will feature on this Sunday’s edition of Wall Street Week.

In this excerpt from that interview, Bob Olstein talks about the two stocks that he is currently bullish on – General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) and Dillard’s – explains the reasons for his bullishness.

General Motors

“Well, we are buying companies like General Motors, okay?” Bob Olstein said. “We know the cars are down in China; we understand they are going to have a bad quarter. The company’s balance sheet is shaped up after their bankruptcy. They have earnings power, free cash flow in excess to $3 a share. In essence, I am paying $30.”

Olstein was asked if the reason he is bullish on General Motors is that vehicle sales in America are at a high and continuing to grow. He replied, “Who cares? This company has $3 a share. I can clip my coupon every year. I remember sitting here and we were talking about Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) back in 2000, and they continued to march on. And they tripled their revenues and you lost half of your money in Cisco.

“And if you bought John Deere, which is similar to General Motors, it also tripled its revenues, but you made a four bagger, you know why? Because it wasn’t priced right. GM is not priced right.”

Dillard’s

On why he is bullish on Dillard’s, Bob Olstein said, “Here is a company that has free cash flow of 10 percent yield. It has excess depreciation; there’s non-cash depreciation over its capex. They have got real estate underneath it. We think this stock is worth as much as $140 a share, and it’s selling at a $100 a share.”

Bob Olstein

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Shots Fired In Ferguson On Brown Death Anniversary, Day After Hillary Says “Police Bias Is Clear”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Four days after we showed a video in which Nation of Islam leader urged black Americans to “rise up and kill those who kill us”, two days after we reported that “Black-White Race Relations Under Obama are the Worst In The 21st Century“, shots were fired, according to Reuters, on Sunday during a march in Ferguson, Missouri to mark the one year anniversary of the fatal shooting of unarmed black teenager Michael Brown, police said.

It was unclear who fired the shots or the extent of any injuries, a police spokesman told reporters, but initial reports suggested they were not aimed at the marchers. About six shots were heard as 300 people made their way to a church on the outskirts of Ferguson as part of events to mark the death of Brown at the hands of a white police officer one year ago.

St. Louis County Police Chief Jon Belmar said he was angry that a shooting had marred the weekend’s events in Ferguson, which have so far gone off without major incidents or arrests.

“These are the exact kind of events we try to avoid. I think it’s unfortunate. We are trying to keep everybody as safe as we can,” Belmar told reporters.

More troubling is that none other than the potential future president of the US was adding gasoline to the fire yesterday, when in an interview with Al Sharpton – her second national broadcast interview since she declared her candidacy in April – Hillary Clinton discussed “criminal justice reform” and said the following:

If you compare arrest records in, you know, charging of crimes, in convicting of crimes, in sentencing of crimes, you compare African-American men to white men. It is unfortunately clear as it could be that there is a bias in favor of white men…

The exchange takes place around 25 minutes 40 seconds into the video recording below:

Well, yes, there are certainly problem cases such as the “Police Officer Caught On Tape Discussing “Ways To Kill A Black Man And Cover It Up.” However, when a presidential candidate goes openly on record to state that she implicitly backs all those who say all the US police is problematic, is it any wonder Louis Farrakhan will that “if the…
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Summer Jobs Disappear; Lazy Teens, Immigrants Blamed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Back in May, we highlighted a report which showed that across OECD countries, 35 million people between the ages of 16 and 29 are jobless. “Overall, young people are twice as likely as prime-age workers to be unemployed,” the OECD said. 

As anyone who follows the slow motion trainwreck that is the EMU knows, youth joblessness across the periphery is a disaster, with unemployment rates between 40% and 50%. And things aren’t great in America either. As nonprofit Generation Opportunity recently noted, “the effective (U-6) unemployment rate for 18-29 year olds, which adjusts for labor force participation by including those who have given up looking for work, is 13.8 percent (NSA).”

Against this backdrop, consider the following from Bloomberg, who bemoans the demise of the legendary “summer job” in America and offers three explanations for its disappearance. 

Via Bloomberg:

At 41.3 percent, the July labor force participation rate of teens was the lowest for the month in the post-World War II period.

The teenage summer job has been going the way of telephone booths and the cassette tape for decades. The length of the downward trend has been masked by the fact that it’s hard to tease apart teen summer jobs from teen employment more generally.

Looking at the jump in the labor-force participation of teens in July over the average for the school months, it’s clear that summer jobs peaked in the mid-1960s and have been sliding since.

What gives?

1. This generation is lazy

Or, as Northeastern University labor economist Alicia Modestino puts it: “Some teens are doing other stuff” like coding camp, foreign travel or beaching it.

2. Typical teen jobs are drying up

“Think Blockbuster,” said Modestino. 

3. Teens face competition

Modestino and other labor economists believe that the single-biggest explanation for the decline is that teenagers face stiff competition for what were once summer jobs from other workers, especially immigrants.

So basically, the excuses for the demise of the summer job are i) laziness, ii) lack of available employment, and iii) immigrant competition. 

Come to think of it, those three excuses are a pretty good explanation for all joblessness in America. 





The Canaries Continue To Drop Like Flies

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submited by Mark St.Cyr,

One would think as “canary” after “canary” falls silent either sickened with laryngitis, or worse – completely comatose, that those on Wall Street as well as the financial media itself would not only have seen, but heard, many of the warning calls that have been obvious for quite some time. Yet, history always shows; not only do they not see, but more often than not – they don’t want to see, nor hear the warning calls.

Even when all the warning signs are screaming danger – not only are they ignored, they’re explained away as if those which saw or heard them, should be ignored as they’ll contend not only did one not see; but couldn’t see.

What they’ll propose is: “That was not a “canary” but rather a  “dodo.”  After all, with a Fed that’s as interactive as this one currently is, surely what they believe they heard, or saw is impossible. For people say they’ve spotted warning signs in these ‘markets’ for years, and none have yet produced a crisis because – they’re now extinct! ” Yet, the wheezing sounds of many a Wall Street songbird has been apparent for quite a while. Again: If only one would care to look or listen.

Back in April of 2014 in an article titled “The Scarlet Absence Of A Letter of Credit” I opined a few scenarios as to why this seemingly dismissed revelation by the so-called “smart crowd” should not go unnoticed. For the implications may very well portend far greater reasons too worry in the coming future. Below is an excerpt. And let’s not forget this is some 16 months ago. When the financial media et al were still reciting in unison the wonders to which, “China will be the economy that leads us out of this current malaise.”

“Over the last few years since the financial melt down of 2008, we have seen what many have believed are precursors that may tip the hand of markets as to show just how unhealthy this levitating act fueled by free money has become.

And yes there are always false indicators, and we all know correlation doesn’t equal causation. And even more may shrug and think, “No letter of credit, so what.” However, if there were ever a canary in


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“We Should Admit This Isn’t Going To Work”: One Country’s Grim Assessment Of Greece’s Future

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

On Saturday, Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung reported that Greece’s creditors – the “quadriga” as it were – had agreed on the terms to be imposed on Athens in return for an ESM rescue package worth some €86 billion. The 27-page draft MOU is “substantial and far reaching,” and includes cuts to defense spending and subsidies for farmers, Bloomberg says, summarizing the FAZ report. 

Greece desperately needs to close the deal next week. If the new program isn’t formally in place by August 20, a €3.2 billion payment to the ECB won’t be possible – a default to the central bank would likely be catastrophic, as Greece’s banking sector would collapse entirely in the absence of the ELA liquidity drip.

Once Greek officials agree to the conditions, the draft will be circulated to EMU member countries for approval and Alexis Tsipras will need to go once more to parliament where he hopes the Syriza rebellion which imperiled the first two votes on bailout prior actions will have died down in the wake of a dramatic party meeting late last month in which the Greek Premier insisted that for the time being, “opposing voices must stop.” Here’s Reuters:

Greece is on track to complete a draft deal on a third bailout by Tuesday and possibly get a first disbursement by Aug. 20 to meet a key payment, sources familiar with a conference call of senior EU finance officials late on Friday said.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has tried to force the pace of the talks, keen to wrap up agreement on sensitive economic reforms by mid-August, while many Greeks are on holiday, and receive an initial aid disbursement by Aug. 20 in time to make a bond payment to the European Central Bank.

If a draft memorandum of understanding and an updated debt sustainability analysis are ready as planned on Tuesday, the Greek government and parliament would be expected to approve them by Thursday.

And more from Kathimerini:

Greece will aim to finalize an agreement with lenders next week in the hope of being in a position to pass the deal through Parliament by next Thursday.

There are a number of issues that need to be ironed out in the next couple of days if the government is to be able to


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Phil's Favorites

Why are Atlantic and Gulf coast property owners building back bigger after hurricanes?

 

Why are Atlantic and Gulf coast property owners building back bigger after hurricanes?

Surf threatens beach houses on Dauphin Island, Alabama, September 4, 2011 during Tropical Storm Lee. AP Photo/Dave Martin

Courtesy of Eli Lazarus, University of Southampton and Evan B. Goldstein, University of North Carolina – Greensboro

U.S. coastal counties are densely populated and extensivel...



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Zero Hedge

Russian And South Korean Fighter Jets Face Off In "Mid-Air Confrontation"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

For the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russian jets flying through South Korean airspace provoked the South Korean military into a "midair confrontation" that involved firing hundreds of warning shots. All told, South Korean jets fired 360 machine-gun rounds and at least 20 flares, Bloomberg reports.

Three Russian military planes (two Tu-95 bombers and one A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraf...



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Insider Scoop

The Daily Biotech Pulse: Acadia Schizophrenia Drug Fails, Viveve Plummets, Eisai Gets Breakthrough Therapy Designation

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Here's a roundup of top developments in the biotech space over the last 24 hours.

Scaling The Peaks

(Biotech stocks hitting 52-week highs on July 22)

  • Acasti Pharma Inc (NASDAQ: ACST)
  • Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: APLS)
  • Arcturus...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is Crude Oil Sending a Bearish Message to the Stock Market?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Crude Oil (NYSEARCA: USO) and the S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP: .INX) have peaked and bottomed together several times in the past 9 months. See points (1) and (2) on the chart above.

In summary, the correlation between Oil and the stock market has been quite interesting and demands investors attention.

Crude Oil has been creating lower highs of late and is breaking price support at (3).

If the correlation remains the same, Crude Oil may very well be sending a bearish message to stocks.

Tricky spot for active investors – careful here.

...

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Chart School

RTT Plus Chart Book (Sneak Peak)

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The magic of support and resistance channel lines and how they direct price. Here are some chart disclosed to members via the RTT Plus service. All charts are a few weeks old. 


XAU bound by parallel channel lines.


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Newmont Mining support from Gann Angles.



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US Dollar index (DXY) dominate cycle ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Suddenly Panic-Bid, Bitcoin Back Above $10k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following further selling pressure overnight, someone (or more than one) has decided to buy-the-dip in cryptos this morning, sending Bitcoin (and most of the altcoins) soaring...

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Bitcoin surged back above $10,000...

Ethereum bounced off suppo...



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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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