Archive for 2015

Swing trading portfolio – week of December 7th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

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Chipotle Shares Continue To Plunge After Hours Amid Boston College E. Coli Scare

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CMG
Detwiler Fenton Says CDC Still Unable To Identify Chipotle's E. Coli Source, Traffic Will Be Challenged
Taco Bell Proves Chipotle Can Overcome E. Coli Outbreak
Stocks Tumble As Oil Prices Plunge; Airline, Gun Stocks Take Off (Investor’s Business Daily)

Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) fell more than $25 in Monday's post-market session following yet another report of an E. coli outbreak.

According to a recent post on a Boston College Eagles community site, BC Interruption, eight Boston College basketball players are now feeling the effects of E. coli-related sickness, seemingly after eating at Chipotle.

See Also: Wall Street Mixed On Chipotle: More Educated Customer Base And Food With Integrity Branding Complicates

Boston College Senior Associate Director of Sports Medicine, Donna Bennett, as shown in the BC Interruption article, quickly sent an "immediate warning" to appropriate parties urging them not to eat at Chipotle. The campus-wide email to all athletes suggested a number of people on campus were struck sick from E. coli after eating at the Chipotle in Cleveland Circle.

After closing Monday down 1.5 percent at $552.79, shares of Chipotle were trading down nearly 5 percent to around $526 in the after-hours session. The stock has lost about a quarter of its value since early October, when E. coli fears were first reported.

Posted-In: BC Interruption Boston CollegeNews Rumors After-Hours Center Movers





BlueBird Bio Unable To Rebound

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BLUE
Mid-Day Market Update: Dow Dips 150 Points; Sodastream Shares Spike Higher
Bluebuird Bio Crashes Nearly 30%: What's Next?
ASH-tainted investors shun Agios Pharma despite positive early-state data; shares slump 13% in early trading (Seeking Alpha)

BlueBird Bio Inc (NASDAQ: BLUE) shares are trading lower by $31 at $52.66 in Monday’s session. The catalyst for the decline is mixed sickle cell data from it latest trial. The poor results prompted three different Wall Street firms to lower their ratings, while another lowered its price target.

After a lower open, it rallied to $63.89 before resuming its descent. It reached $51.72 and has rebounded into the $52 handle.

That takes the issue back into a thinly traded level from December 2014. In that month, it rallied from a low of $39.02 and ended the year at $91.72.

Posted-In: Premarekt outlookTechnicals Intraday Update Movers Trading Ideas





Detwiler Fenton Says CDC Still Unable To Identify Chipotle's E. Coli Source, Traffic Will Be Challenged

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CMG
Taco Bell Proves Chipotle Can Overcome E. Coli Outbreak
Oppenheimer Is Bullish On Chipotle's Recovery In Fundamentals
Stocks Fall Sharply; Airlines Up On Lower Oil; Avago Holds Gains (Investor’s Business Daily)
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) continues to suffer from the E. coli outbreak in the US.
  • In a report issued Monday, Detwiler Fenton analyst Jim Sanderson said this will remain a long-term challenge for the company to overcome.

Analysts at Detwiler Fenton think concerns over food security will continue to afflict Chipotle for several quarters, even though recent reports suggest the company has started to resolve the issues around E. coli. Generally, they believe that until the company can prove that its food is really safe and disease free, consumers will avoid dining in its restaurants, especially in the nine states where the outbreak has been reported. These states host more than half of the company’s U.S. locations.

Related Link: Wall Street Mixed On Chipotle: More Educated Customer Base And Food With Integrity Branding Complicates

While bad publicity for Chipotle has proliferated quickly, the truth is that the Center for Disease Control (CDC) has yet to confirm the source of the disease. However, the analysts think the company’s strategy "may not have mitigated further spread of the disease from the firm's supply-chain given that there is a several-week delay in reporting disease outbreaks once identified."

Even if no more cases emerge, Sanderson thinks Chipotle "will face a broader build-up of negative consumer sentiment that will take quarters to remediate." As this process unravels, the expert believes the company's traffic will continue to be challenged through at least the first half of 2016.

At this stage, Sanderson believes Chipotle, working with the CDC, "is still trying to understand how the disease occurred and spread. This tells us that going forward, CMG has months of PR work to take-on to effectively explain to consumers how this diseases occurred and why it won't happen again." If effective (and assuming no more E. coli reports in the future), the company's marketing program could take more than a…
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Monday's After-Hours Movers Led By H & R Block, United Natural Foods And DryShips

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related HRB
Must Watch Stocks for Today
Earnings Scheduled For December 7, 2015
H&R Block misses by $0.06, misses on revenue (Seeking Alpha)

Related UNFI
Must Watch Stocks for Today
Earnings Scheduled For December 7, 2015
United Natural Foods misses by $0.04, revenue in-line (Seeking Alpha)

Shares of H & R Block Inc (NYSE: HRB) were trading down more than 5 percent in Monday’s after-hours session, following the announcement of the company’s second quarter (fiscal 2016) financial results. The mid-cap accounting services provider reported revenue of $128 million, down 4.6 percent on foreign exchange headwinds, and a net loss of $(0.54) per share. While sales came in ahead of the Street’s expectations, which called for revenue of $127.72 million, the net loss was larger than the anticipated $(0.49) per share.

Also falling on its earnings call was United Natural Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: UNFI), down almost 6 percent. For the first quarter of fiscal 2016, the small-cap organic and natural foods distributor delivered earnings of $0.63 per share on revenue of $2.018 billion, missing the Street’s consensus estimate of $0.69 per share and $2.094 billion.

Opposite was the case of DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS), which gained more than 12.4 percent after the bell rang on its earnings report. This micro-cap transportation company retrieved a net loss of $(0.03) per share on revenue of $50.766 million.

Central Garden & Pet Co (NASDAQ: CENT) rose more than 2.2 percent in Monday’s after-hours session. The small-cap company reported fourth quarter earnings of $0.01 per share on revenue of $386.37 million, well above the Street’s consensus, which called for a net loss of $(0.09) per share on revenue of $384.8 million.

Disclosure: Javier Hasse holds no positions in any of the securities mentioned above.

Posted-In: Earnings News After-Hours Center Movers





Mid-Morning Market Update: Markets Open Lower; Keurig Green Mountain Agrees To Be Taken Private For $92/Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related
Mid-Morning Market Update: Markets Edge Lower; PGT To Buy WinDoor
Why Stifel Is Downgrading Vanguard Natural Resources
Dividend Death Watch Update (Seeking Alpha)
Related WG
Mid-Afternoon Market Update: US Stocks Edge Higher; Palo Alto Networks Shares Gain On Strong Results
Mid-Day Market Update: Crude Oil Rises 2.5%; Daktronics Shares Drop On Downbeat Results
TRC Co.: Being Greedy, When Everyone Is Fearful (Seeking Alpha)

Following the market opening Monday, the Dow traded down 0.50 percent to 17,758.81 while the NASDAQ dipped 0.54 percent to 5,114.64. The S&P also fell, dropping 0.57 percent to 2,079.74.

Leading and Lagging Sectors

In trading on Monday, non-cyclical consumer goods & services shares surged by 0.41 percent. Meanwhile, top gainers in the sector included Keurig Green Mountain Inc (NASDAQ: GMCR), up 73 percent, and Sodastream International Ltd (NASDAQ: SODA), up 8 percent.

Energy shares tumbled by 3.02 percent in the US market on Monday. Top losers in the sector included Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC (NASDAQ: VNR), Willbros Group Inc (NYSE: WG), and Legacy Reserves LP (NASDAQ: LGCY).

Top Headline

Keurig Green Mountain Inc (NASDAQ: GMCR) agreed to be acquired for $13.9 billion by an investor group led by JAB Holding Company.

The cash offer of $92.00 per share represents a 78 percent premium over Keurig’s closing price on Friday.

Equities Trading UP

Keurig Green Mountain Inc (NASDAQ: GMCR) shares shot up 73 percent to $89.61 after the company agreed to be acquired for $13.9 billion.

Shares of XBiotech Inc (NASDAQ: XBIT) got a boost, shooting up 20 percent to $10.33 after the company reported positive results in its European Phase III study for its breakthrough therapy for colorectal cancer.

Sodastream International Ltd (NASDAQ: SODA) shares were also up, gaining 9 percent to $15.26 on Keurig Green Mountain Inc (NASDAQ: GMCR)…
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Big Lots Hammered By Piper Jaffray, Firm Warns Of Uncertainty In 2016

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BIG
Big Lots Crushed For Second Day In A Row
Earnings Scheduled For December 4, 2015
Caution dialed up on Big Lots post-earnings (Seeking Alpha)

  • The share price of Big Lots, Inc. (NYSE: BIG) has dipped 18.65 percent over the past month, opening Monday at a low of $39.24.
  • Piper Jaffray’s Peter J. Keith has downgraded the rating on the company from Overweight to Neutral, while lowering the price target from $61 to $43.
  • Although there continues to be consistent improvement in the company’s stores, Keith expressed concern regarding Big Lots being able to move to positive traction comp in 2016.

Analyst Peter Keith said that the downgrade was also due to the ongoing ecommerce rollout representing “a notable drag on profitability and has execution risk.”

Keith also mentioned that management had “established overly aggressive guidance targets which gives the turnaround a negative slant when these targets aren't met.”

In addition, while the company's initiatives with the Store Revolution and a private label credit card test continue to be “intriguing,” they are still unproven.

Big Lots has to date invested capex worth $40 million in its ecommerce platform, while building to a run rate of $10 million in expenses to support the platform. The company expects additional expenses in 2016, although it has not quantified the amount.

Keith expressed concern regarding “execution risk on the roll-out and support of e-com,” saying that the ecommerce expenses have been limiting EBIT margin and pressuring the stock valuation.

In addition, with the ongoing changed in Big Lots’ merchant mix towards slower turning items, as well as limited visibility into the store operating initiatives, Keith expressed skepticism regarding the company’s transactional comp turning positive in 2016.

According to the Piper Jaffray report, management and the company’s board need to establish more realistic long-term goals.

Latest Ratings for BIG

Date Firm Action From To
Dec 2015 Piper Jaffray Downgrades Overweight Neutral
Sep 2015 Deutsche Bank Maintains Buy
Aug 2015 Barclays Maintains Overweight

View More Analyst Ratings for BIG
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Peter J. Keith Piper JaffrayAnalyst Color Downgrades Price Target Analyst Ratings





Crude Oil Crashes Below $40 And Beyond

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related USO
OPEC's Solution To Oil Glut: More Oil!
Russia Facing Difficulty In Turkish Straits? Shipping Disruptions May Be Moving Global Oil Market
Forget About The Price Of Oil Rebounding – It's Not Going To Happen (Seeking Alpha)

January Crude Oil futures are trading lower by $$2.10 at $37.87 in Monday’s session. Early in the session, the contract breached $40 and has been on a decline. Once it breached Friday’s low ($39.60), the pace of selling accelerated. It has reached $37.80 and has not been able rebound back over $38.

Posted-In: Premarket outlookTechnicals Intraday Update Movers Trading Ideas





Homeinns Enters into Definitive Merger Agreement for $35.80/ADS

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Homeinns Hotel Group (NASDAQ: HMIN) today announced that it has entered into a definitive Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with BTG Hotels Group (HONGKONG) Holdings Co., Limited (“Holdco”), a wholly owned subsidiary of BTG Hotels (Group) Co., Ltd., a PRC joint stock company that is listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and principally engaged in the management of hotels and tourism destinations (SHA: 600258) (“BTG Hotels”), BTG Hotels Group (CAYMAN) Holding Co., Ltd (“Merger Sub”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Holdco, and solely for the purposes of certain sections of the Merger Agreement, BTG Hotels.

Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, Holdco will acquire the Company (other than Rollover Shares as defined below) for cash consideration of US$17.90 in cash per ordinary share of the Company (each, a ”Share”) or US$35.80 in cash per American depositary share of the Company (each, an ”ADS”), each of which represents two Shares.  This represents an 18.7% premium over the closing price of US$30.17 per ADS as quoted by the NASDAQ Global Market on June 10, 2015, and a premium of 29.4% and 36.6%, respectively, over the

See full press release





Wedbush Likes Voyager's Gene Therapy Pipeline, Initiates At Outperform

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Wedbush Likes Voyager's Gene Therapy Pipeline, Initiates At Outperform

Related VYGR
4 New Issues Make Today The Hottest IPO Day In Months
IPOs Expected for Nov. 11, '15: WVE, EQBK, AAAP, VYGR

  • Shares of Voyager Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: VYGR) have appreciated 64.79 percent over the past month, with the share price almost at the 52-week high on December 4.
  • Wedbush’s David M. Nierengarten initiated coverage of the company with an Outperform rating and price target of $36.
  • The company is pioneering in AAV-based gene therapy for serious disorders of the central nervous system, which Nierengarten believes is an “ideal site” for gene therapy.
  • Analyst David Nierengarten explained that Voyager Therapeutics has selected various Central Nervous System (CNS) diseases, “with validated, specific gene targets that are amenable to AAV gene therapy.”

    The CNS is an “ideal site for gene therapy due to its “immune privilege” status and terminally-differentiated cells that allow long-term transgene expression,” Nierengarten went on to say.

    VY-AADC01 And Parkinson’s

    The company’s lead program, VY-AADC01, is currently being development for the treatment of advanced Parkinson’s disease. The drug aims to restore the expression of an enzyme, AADC, which is responsible for converting L-Dopa to Dopamine, but is progressively lost due to Parkinson’s.

    Therefore, by restoring AADC levels, the drug is expected to help with significant improvement in motor skills, as well as L-Dopa responsiveness.

    Related Link: Piper Jaffray Initiates Coverage On Voyager therapeutics At Overweight

    VY-SOD101 And ALS

    The second pipeline drug is VY-SOD101, which is gene therapy for the treatment of ALS or monogenic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. “VYGR’s other preclinical programs target Friedreich’s ataxia, Huntington’s disease and spinal muscular atrophy,” Nierengarten added.

    According to the Wedbush report, Voyager Therapeutics’ pipeline products are backed by robust preclinical data.

    Partnerships Boost Benefits

    In addition, the company’s strategic partnership with Genzyme not only “validates VYGR’s product development platform,” but also “allows leverage of the combined expertise, and provides substantial financial support for VYGR to develop its pipeline,” the report said.

    Image Credit: Public Domain

    Latest Ratings for VYGR

    Date Firm Action From To
    Dec 2015 Piper Jaffray Initiates Coverage on Overweight
    Dec 2015 Cowen &amp; Company Initiates Coverage on Outperform
    Dec 2015 Wedbush Initiates Coverage on Outperform

    View More Analyst Ratings for VYGR
    View the Latest Analyst Ratings

    Posted-In: Analyst Color Biotech Long Ideas Health Care Initiation Top Stories Analyst Ratings Trading Ideas Best of Benzinga





     
     
     

    Phil's Favorites

    A doctor shares 7 steps he'll review to decide when and where it's safe to go out and about

     

    A doctor shares 7 steps he'll review to decide when and where it's safe to go out and about

    The Inn at Little Washington in Washington, Virginia, shown May 20, 2020, plans to use mannequins in its dining room to enforce social distancing when it reopens at the end of the month. Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

    Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

    As we return to some degree of normalcy after weeks of social distancing, we all need a plan. As an immunologist, I’ve given this a lot of ...



    more from Ilene

    Biotech/COVID-19

    A doctor shares 7 steps he'll review to decide when and where it's safe to go out and about

     

    A doctor shares 7 steps he'll review to decide when and where it's safe to go out and about

    The Inn at Little Washington in Washington, Virginia, shown May 20, 2020, plans to use mannequins in its dining room to enforce social distancing when it reopens at the end of the month. Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

    Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

    As we return to some degree of normalcy after weeks of social distancing, we all need a plan. As an immunologist, I’ve given this a lot of ...



    more from Biotech/COVID-19

    Zero Hedge

    18 Million Jobs At Risk Of Permanent Loss: What Happens To Small Businesses When The Bailout Money Is Spent

    Courtesy of Nick Colas of DataTrek Research

    American small businesses are going to bear the brunt of the COVID Crisis and they employ 47% of the entire US workforce. Some will bounce back quickly (e.g. health care, construction, professional services) but accommodation/food service and retail will not. There are 18 million workers attached to small businesses there. Bottom line: at this early point in the cycle, large businesses have to find their footing because that’s what will set the floor on small business activity. The sooner that happens, the sooner small business America can start to recover.

    We continue to worry – a lot – about how US small ...



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    Chart School

    Is this your local response to COVID 19

    Courtesy of Read the Ticker

    This is off topic, but a bit of fun!


    This is the standard reaction from the control freaks.








    This is the song for post lock down!







    What should be made mandatory? Vaccines, hell NO! This should be mandatory: Every one taking their tops off in the sun, they do in Africa!

    Guess which family gets more Vitamin D and eats less sugary carbs, TV Show



    ...



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    ValueWalk

    Hazelton Capital Partners 1Q20 Commentary: Long Renewable Energy Group

    By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

    Hazelton Capital Partners commentary for the first quarter ended April 30, 2020, discussing their current portfolio holdings Renewable Energy Group, Apple and Berkshire Hathaway.

    Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

    Dear Partner,

    Hazelton Capital Partners, LLC (the “Fund”) returned -23.8% from January 1, 2020 through March 31, 2020. By comparison, the S&P 500 returned -19.4% during the same quarter.

    Before reviewing the 1st quarter of 2020 and Hazelton Capital Partners’ portfolio, my sincere hope is that everyone, their family, friends, a...



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    The Technical Traders

    Gold Stocks Are Overbought. You Don't Want Prices to Go Straight Up

    Courtesy of Technical Traders

    Bill Powers of MiningStockEducation.com talks with a professional trader and market commentator Chris Vermeulen says gold stocks are overbought and need a breather which would be good for the overall upward trend.

    Chris shares how he has and is trading the junior gold sector. He called the recent February 24th top in the gold stocks before the March crash. And now he is warning to a top in some gold-stock positions during an expected pullback.

    Chris also addresses whether a lot of the gap-up’s in many gold...



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    Kimble Charting Solutions

    Doc Copper Counter-Trend Rally Could Peak Here, Says Joe Friday

    Courtesy of Chris Kimble

    Could ole Doc Copper be sending an important message about the overall health of the global economy and the stock market in the next couple of weeks? It appears it could!

    This chart looks at Copper futures on a weekly basis over the past 7-years. Doc Copper looks to have double topped in late 2017 and early 2018. After the double top, Copper has continued to create a series of lower highs, which sends a bearish divergence message to stocks.

    Numerous highs and lows have taken place along the line (1) over the past 5-years. The rally off the March lows ...



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    Digital Currencies

    Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

     

    Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

    App-etising? LDprod

    Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

    Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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    Members' Corner

    Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

     

    Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

    No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

    Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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    Insider Scoop

    Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

    Courtesy of Benzinga

    • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
    • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
    • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
    • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
    ...

    http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

    Promotions

    Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

    TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

    Feb. 26, 1pm EST

    Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

    Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

    This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

    Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

    ...

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    Lee's Free Thinking

    Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

     

    Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

    Courtesy of  

    The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

    Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

    Lee,

    The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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    Mapping The Market

    How IPOs Are Priced

    Via Jean Luc 

    Funny but probably true:

    ...

    more from M.T.M.





    About Phil:

    Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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    Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.