Archive for 2015

Swing trading portfolio – week of December 7th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here


Swing trading virtual portfolio

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Chipotle Shares Continue To Plunge After Hours Amid Boston College E. Coli Scare

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CMG
Detwiler Fenton Says CDC Still Unable To Identify Chipotle's E. Coli Source, Traffic Will Be Challenged
Taco Bell Proves Chipotle Can Overcome E. Coli Outbreak
Stocks Tumble As Oil Prices Plunge; Airline, Gun Stocks Take Off (Investor’s Business Daily)

Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) fell more than $25 in Monday's post-market session following yet another report of an E. coli outbreak.

According to a recent post on a Boston College Eagles community site, BC Interruption, eight Boston College basketball players are now feeling the effects of E. coli-related sickness, seemingly after eating at Chipotle.

See Also: Wall Street Mixed On Chipotle: More Educated Customer Base And Food With Integrity Branding Complicates

Boston College Senior Associate Director of Sports Medicine, Donna Bennett, as shown in the BC Interruption article, quickly sent an "immediate warning" to appropriate parties urging them not to eat at Chipotle. The campus-wide email to all athletes suggested a number of people on campus were struck sick from E. coli after eating at the Chipotle in Cleveland Circle.

After closing Monday down 1.5 percent at $552.79, shares of Chipotle were trading down nearly 5 percent to around $526 in the after-hours session. The stock has lost about a quarter of its value since early October, when E. coli fears were first reported.

Posted-In: BC Interruption Boston CollegeNews Rumors After-Hours Center Movers

BlueBird Bio Unable To Rebound

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BLUE
Mid-Day Market Update: Dow Dips 150 Points; Sodastream Shares Spike Higher
Bluebuird Bio Crashes Nearly 30%: What's Next?
ASH-tainted investors shun Agios Pharma despite positive early-state data; shares slump 13% in early trading (Seeking Alpha)

BlueBird Bio Inc (NASDAQ: BLUE) shares are trading lower by $31 at $52.66 in Monday’s session. The catalyst for the decline is mixed sickle cell data from it latest trial. The poor results prompted three different Wall Street firms to lower their ratings, while another lowered its price target.

After a lower open, it rallied to $63.89 before resuming its descent. It reached $51.72 and has rebounded into the $52 handle.

That takes the issue back into a thinly traded level from December 2014. In that month, it rallied from a low of $39.02 and ended the year at $91.72.

Posted-In: Premarekt outlookTechnicals Intraday Update Movers Trading Ideas

Detwiler Fenton Says CDC Still Unable To Identify Chipotle's E. Coli Source, Traffic Will Be Challenged

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CMG
Taco Bell Proves Chipotle Can Overcome E. Coli Outbreak
Oppenheimer Is Bullish On Chipotle's Recovery In Fundamentals
Stocks Fall Sharply; Airlines Up On Lower Oil; Avago Holds Gains (Investor’s Business Daily)
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) continues to suffer from the E. coli outbreak in the US.
  • In a report issued Monday, Detwiler Fenton analyst Jim Sanderson said this will remain a long-term challenge for the company to overcome.

Analysts at Detwiler Fenton think concerns over food security will continue to afflict Chipotle for several quarters, even though recent reports suggest the company has started to resolve the issues around E. coli. Generally, they believe that until the company can prove that its food is really safe and disease free, consumers will avoid dining in its restaurants, especially in the nine states where the outbreak has been reported. These states host more than half of the company’s U.S. locations.

Related Link: Wall Street Mixed On Chipotle: More Educated Customer Base And Food With Integrity Branding Complicates

While bad publicity for Chipotle has proliferated quickly, the truth is that the Center for Disease Control (CDC) has yet to confirm the source of the disease. However, the analysts think the company’s strategy "may not have mitigated further spread of the disease from the firm's supply-chain given that there is a several-week delay in reporting disease outbreaks once identified."

Even if no more cases emerge, Sanderson thinks Chipotle "will face a broader build-up of negative consumer sentiment that will take quarters to remediate." As this process unravels, the expert believes the company's traffic will continue to be challenged through at least the first half of 2016.

At this stage, Sanderson believes Chipotle, working with the CDC, "is still trying to understand how the disease occurred and spread. This tells us that going forward, CMG has months of PR work to take-on to effectively explain to consumers how this diseases occurred and why it won't happen again." If effective (and assuming no more E. coli reports in the future), the company's marketing program could take more than a…
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Monday's After-Hours Movers Led By H & R Block, United Natural Foods And DryShips

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related HRB
Must Watch Stocks for Today
Earnings Scheduled For December 7, 2015
H&R Block misses by $0.06, misses on revenue (Seeking Alpha)

Related UNFI
Must Watch Stocks for Today
Earnings Scheduled For December 7, 2015
United Natural Foods misses by $0.04, revenue in-line (Seeking Alpha)

Shares of H & R Block Inc (NYSE: HRB) were trading down more than 5 percent in Monday’s after-hours session, following the announcement of the company’s second quarter (fiscal 2016) financial results. The mid-cap accounting services provider reported revenue of $128 million, down 4.6 percent on foreign exchange headwinds, and a net loss of $(0.54) per share. While sales came in ahead of the Street’s expectations, which called for revenue of $127.72 million, the net loss was larger than the anticipated $(0.49) per share.

Also falling on its earnings call was United Natural Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: UNFI), down almost 6 percent. For the first quarter of fiscal 2016, the small-cap organic and natural foods distributor delivered earnings of $0.63 per share on revenue of $2.018 billion, missing the Street’s consensus estimate of $0.69 per share and $2.094 billion.

Opposite was the case of DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS), which gained more than 12.4 percent after the bell rang on its earnings report. This micro-cap transportation company retrieved a net loss of $(0.03) per share on revenue of $50.766 million.

Central Garden & Pet Co (NASDAQ: CENT) rose more than 2.2 percent in Monday’s after-hours session. The small-cap company reported fourth quarter earnings of $0.01 per share on revenue of $386.37 million, well above the Street’s consensus, which called for a net loss of $(0.09) per share on revenue of $384.8 million.

Disclosure: Javier Hasse holds no positions in any of the securities mentioned above.

Posted-In: Earnings News After-Hours Center Movers

Mid-Morning Market Update: Markets Open Lower; Keurig Green Mountain Agrees To Be Taken Private For $92/Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Mid-Morning Market Update: Markets Edge Lower; PGT To Buy WinDoor
Why Stifel Is Downgrading Vanguard Natural Resources
Dividend Death Watch Update (Seeking Alpha)
Related WG
Mid-Afternoon Market Update: US Stocks Edge Higher; Palo Alto Networks Shares Gain On Strong Results
Mid-Day Market Update: Crude Oil Rises 2.5%; Daktronics Shares Drop On Downbeat Results
TRC Co.: Being Greedy, When Everyone Is Fearful (Seeking Alpha)

Following the market opening Monday, the Dow traded down 0.50 percent to 17,758.81 while the NASDAQ dipped 0.54 percent to 5,114.64. The S&P also fell, dropping 0.57 percent to 2,079.74.

Leading and Lagging Sectors

In trading on Monday, non-cyclical consumer goods & services shares surged by 0.41 percent. Meanwhile, top gainers in the sector included Keurig Green Mountain Inc (NASDAQ: GMCR), up 73 percent, and Sodastream International Ltd (NASDAQ: SODA), up 8 percent.

Energy shares tumbled by 3.02 percent in the US market on Monday. Top losers in the sector included Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC (NASDAQ: VNR), Willbros Group Inc (NYSE: WG), and Legacy Reserves LP (NASDAQ: LGCY).

Top Headline

Keurig Green Mountain Inc (NASDAQ: GMCR) agreed to be acquired for $13.9 billion by an investor group led by JAB Holding Company.

The cash offer of $92.00 per share represents a 78 percent premium over Keurig’s closing price on Friday.

Equities Trading UP

Keurig Green Mountain Inc (NASDAQ: GMCR) shares shot up 73 percent to $89.61 after the company agreed to be acquired for $13.9 billion.

Shares of XBiotech Inc (NASDAQ: XBIT) got a boost, shooting up 20 percent to $10.33 after the company reported positive results in its European Phase III study for its breakthrough therapy for colorectal cancer.

Sodastream International Ltd (NASDAQ: SODA) shares were also up, gaining 9 percent to $15.26 on Keurig Green Mountain Inc (NASDAQ: GMCR)…
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Big Lots Hammered By Piper Jaffray, Firm Warns Of Uncertainty In 2016

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BIG
Big Lots Crushed For Second Day In A Row
Earnings Scheduled For December 4, 2015
Caution dialed up on Big Lots post-earnings (Seeking Alpha)

  • The share price of Big Lots, Inc. (NYSE: BIG) has dipped 18.65 percent over the past month, opening Monday at a low of $39.24.
  • Piper Jaffray’s Peter J. Keith has downgraded the rating on the company from Overweight to Neutral, while lowering the price target from $61 to $43.
  • Although there continues to be consistent improvement in the company’s stores, Keith expressed concern regarding Big Lots being able to move to positive traction comp in 2016.

Analyst Peter Keith said that the downgrade was also due to the ongoing ecommerce rollout representing “a notable drag on profitability and has execution risk.”

Keith also mentioned that management had “established overly aggressive guidance targets which gives the turnaround a negative slant when these targets aren't met.”

In addition, while the company's initiatives with the Store Revolution and a private label credit card test continue to be “intriguing,” they are still unproven.

Big Lots has to date invested capex worth $40 million in its ecommerce platform, while building to a run rate of $10 million in expenses to support the platform. The company expects additional expenses in 2016, although it has not quantified the amount.

Keith expressed concern regarding “execution risk on the roll-out and support of e-com,” saying that the ecommerce expenses have been limiting EBIT margin and pressuring the stock valuation.

In addition, with the ongoing changed in Big Lots’ merchant mix towards slower turning items, as well as limited visibility into the store operating initiatives, Keith expressed skepticism regarding the company’s transactional comp turning positive in 2016.

According to the Piper Jaffray report, management and the company’s board need to establish more realistic long-term goals.

Latest Ratings for BIG

Date Firm Action From To
Dec 2015 Piper Jaffray Downgrades Overweight Neutral
Sep 2015 Deutsche Bank Maintains Buy
Aug 2015 Barclays Maintains Overweight

View More Analyst Ratings for BIG
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Peter J. Keith Piper JaffrayAnalyst Color Downgrades Price Target Analyst Ratings

Crude Oil Crashes Below $40 And Beyond

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related USO
OPEC's Solution To Oil Glut: More Oil!
Russia Facing Difficulty In Turkish Straits? Shipping Disruptions May Be Moving Global Oil Market
Forget About The Price Of Oil Rebounding – It's Not Going To Happen (Seeking Alpha)

January Crude Oil futures are trading lower by $$2.10 at $37.87 in Monday’s session. Early in the session, the contract breached $40 and has been on a decline. Once it breached Friday’s low ($39.60), the pace of selling accelerated. It has reached $37.80 and has not been able rebound back over $38.

Posted-In: Premarket outlookTechnicals Intraday Update Movers Trading Ideas

Homeinns Enters into Definitive Merger Agreement for $35.80/ADS

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Homeinns Hotel Group (NASDAQ: HMIN) today announced that it has entered into a definitive Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with BTG Hotels Group (HONGKONG) Holdings Co., Limited (“Holdco”), a wholly owned subsidiary of BTG Hotels (Group) Co., Ltd., a PRC joint stock company that is listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and principally engaged in the management of hotels and tourism destinations (SHA: 600258) (“BTG Hotels”), BTG Hotels Group (CAYMAN) Holding Co., Ltd (“Merger Sub”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Holdco, and solely for the purposes of certain sections of the Merger Agreement, BTG Hotels.

Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, Holdco will acquire the Company (other than Rollover Shares as defined below) for cash consideration of US$17.90 in cash per ordinary share of the Company (each, a ”Share”) or US$35.80 in cash per American depositary share of the Company (each, an ”ADS”), each of which represents two Shares.  This represents an 18.7% premium over the closing price of US$30.17 per ADS as quoted by the NASDAQ Global Market on June 10, 2015, and a premium of 29.4% and 36.6%, respectively, over the

See full press release

Wedbush Likes Voyager's Gene Therapy Pipeline, Initiates At Outperform

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Wedbush Likes Voyager's Gene Therapy Pipeline, Initiates At Outperform

Related VYGR
4 New Issues Make Today The Hottest IPO Day In Months
IPOs Expected for Nov. 11, '15: WVE, EQBK, AAAP, VYGR

  • Shares of Voyager Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: VYGR) have appreciated 64.79 percent over the past month, with the share price almost at the 52-week high on December 4.
  • Wedbush’s David M. Nierengarten initiated coverage of the company with an Outperform rating and price target of $36.
  • The company is pioneering in AAV-based gene therapy for serious disorders of the central nervous system, which Nierengarten believes is an “ideal site” for gene therapy.
  • Analyst David Nierengarten explained that Voyager Therapeutics has selected various Central Nervous System (CNS) diseases, “with validated, specific gene targets that are amenable to AAV gene therapy.”

    The CNS is an “ideal site for gene therapy due to its “immune privilege” status and terminally-differentiated cells that allow long-term transgene expression,” Nierengarten went on to say.

    VY-AADC01 And Parkinson’s

    The company’s lead program, VY-AADC01, is currently being development for the treatment of advanced Parkinson’s disease. The drug aims to restore the expression of an enzyme, AADC, which is responsible for converting L-Dopa to Dopamine, but is progressively lost due to Parkinson’s.

    Therefore, by restoring AADC levels, the drug is expected to help with significant improvement in motor skills, as well as L-Dopa responsiveness.

    Related Link: Piper Jaffray Initiates Coverage On Voyager therapeutics At Overweight

    VY-SOD101 And ALS

    The second pipeline drug is VY-SOD101, which is gene therapy for the treatment of ALS or monogenic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. “VYGR’s other preclinical programs target Friedreich’s ataxia, Huntington’s disease and spinal muscular atrophy,” Nierengarten added.

    According to the Wedbush report, Voyager Therapeutics’ pipeline products are backed by robust preclinical data.

    Partnerships Boost Benefits

    In addition, the company’s strategic partnership with Genzyme not only “validates VYGR’s product development platform,” but also “allows leverage of the combined expertise, and provides substantial financial support for VYGR to develop its pipeline,” the report said.

    Image Credit: Public Domain

    Latest Ratings for VYGR

    Date Firm Action From To
    Dec 2015 Piper Jaffray Initiates Coverage on Overweight
    Dec 2015 Cowen &amp; Company Initiates Coverage on Outperform
    Dec 2015 Wedbush Initiates Coverage on Outperform

    View More Analyst Ratings for VYGR
    View the Latest Analyst Ratings

    Posted-In: Analyst Color Biotech Long Ideas Health Care Initiation Top Stories Analyst Ratings Trading Ideas Best of Benzinga


    Insider Scoop

    Economic Data Scheduled For Tuesday

    Courtesy of Benzinga

    • The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index for the latest week is schedule for release at 8:55 a.m. ET.
    • San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly is set to speak at 4:30 p.m. ET.
    • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles will speak in Salt Lake City, Utah at 6:00 p.m. ET.

    Posted-In: Economic DataNews Economics ... more from Insider

    Phil's Favorites

    "Make It Stop"


    “Make It Stop”

    Courtesy of 

    Every time the stock market falls, no really, every single time, a friend of mine texts me the same thing: “Make it stop.” And every time I tell him the same thing- “You should hope stocks go a lot lower.”

    For people still contributing to their retirement accounts, they shouldn’t fear lower prices, they should pray for them.

    Let’s look at a real world hypothetical example.

    I sorted all twenty-year rolling returns for the S&P 500 and plucked returns near the median. Stocks had nearly identical compound annual growth rates in the ...

    more from Ilene

    Zero Hedge

    Nomura: Global Equity Sentiment "Has Managed To Avoid 'The Panic Zone'"... For Now

    Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

    US equity markets are excitedly recovering last week's losses as hope once again washes across global markets that lower rates, fiscal recklessness will save the world. The explicit driver of the bounce is yet another short-squeeze - the second biggest since the start of 2019.

    Source: Bloomberg

    The last time we saw a bounce like this was the first days of June, when - again - a heavy oversold reading going into a barrage of Fed speakers prompted m...

    more from Tyler

    Kimble Charting Solutions

    Transports 10-Year Bullish Trend Being Tested! Rally Time or Breakdown?

    Courtesy of Chris Kimble

    Is the DJ Transportation Index presenting a rare buying opportunity? The broad market most likely hopes so!

    Transports have spent the majority of the past decade creating a series of higher lows. This pattern has created rising channel (1), which started back in 2009.

    Transports have created a bearish divergence to the S&P 500 over the past 20-months, as they have created lower highs, while the S&P has done the exact opposite.

    The softness in Transports has the testing its May lows and the 10-year rising channel to start out the week at (2). While testing...

    more from Kimble C.S.

    The Technical Traders

    August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow - Are You Ready?

    Courtesy of Technical Traders

    Our August 19 breakdown prediction from
    months ago has really taken root with many of our followers and readers.  We’ve been getting emails and messages from
    hundreds of our followers asking for updates regarding this prediction.  Well, here is the last update before the
    August 19th date (tomorrow) and we hope you have been taking our
    research to heart. 

    First, we believe the August 19 breakdown
    date will be the start of something that could last for more than 5 to 12+
    months.  So, please understand that our
    predicted date is not a make-or-break type of scenario for traders.  It means that we believe this date...

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    Lee's Free Thinking

    The Treasury Supply Drumbeat Has Begun

    Courtesy of Lee Adler

    The beat goes on. The US Treasury announced a 30 year TIPS issue today, bringing net new Treasury supply for the month so far to $119 billion. 

    Here are the details:

    Term and Type: 29-Year 6-Month TIPS

    Reopening: Yes

    Offering Amount: 7 Billion

    Announcement Date: 08/15/2019

    Auction Date: 08/22/2019

    Issue Date: 08/30/2019

    Maturity Date: 02/15/2049

    PDF | XML

    Supply will pound the financial markets to a pulp as far as the eye can see. Those who are currently panicking to buy Treasuries at these ...

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    Chart School

    Bitcoin 2019 fractal with Gold 2013

    Courtesy of Read the Ticker

    Funny how price action patterns repeat, double tops, head and shoulders. These are simply market fractals of supply and demand.

    More from RTT Tv

    Ref: US Crypto Holders Only Have a Few Days to Reply to the IRS 6173 Letter

    Today's news from the US IRS has been blamed for the recent price slump, yet the bitcoin fractal like the gold fractal suggest the market players have set bitcoin up for a slump to $9000 USD long before the IRS news hit the wire.

    Get the impression some market players missed out on the b...

    more from Chart School

    Digital Currencies

    New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

    Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

    Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

    The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...

    more from Bitcoin

    Mapping The Market

    How IPOs Are Priced

    Via Jean Luc 

    Funny but probably true:


    more from M.T.M.


    DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

    Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


    DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

    A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/

    Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...

    more from Biotech

    Members' Corner

    Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

    Are you ready to retire?  

    For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

    Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

    Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

    more from Our Members


    Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



    Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

    Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

    In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

    This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

    Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


    ·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


    more from Promotions

    About Phil:

    Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

    Learn more About Phil >>

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    About Ilene:

    Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

    Market Shadows >>