Archive for 2015

Is Plug Power Now A Buy? The Vetr Crowd Thinks So

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Is Plug Power Now A Buy? The Vetr Crowd Thinks So

  • Shares of Plug Power Inc (NASDAQ: PLUG) have lost more than 32 percent over the past year, but have gained more than 8 percent over the past month.
  • The Vetr Crowd upgraded Plug Power’s rating to 3.5 stars out of a possible five stars.
  • The Vetr Crowd’s crowdsourced price target of $2.14 implies a potential upside of more than 9 percent.
  • Plug Power, a provider of alternative energy technology, has seen its stock plunge more than 32 percent over the past year. Despite the heavy losses over the past 52 weeks, the stock has actually gained more than 8 percent over the past month. The recent momentum likely provided the Vetr Crowd with sufficient conviction of a turnaround in the stock.

    The Crowd

    The Vetr Crowd upgraded Plug Power’s rating to a 3.5 stars out of a five star rating on Monday. At the same time, the crowdsourced price target of $2.14 implies an upside of more than 9 percent; 66.7 percent of the Crowd’s ratings are bullish.

    Related Link: Vetr Crowd Upgrades LinkedIn To Four Stars; Wall Street Also Bullish

    Andrew H, a member of the Vetr Crowd, argued that Plug Power is a “long term” play and the stock will eventually trade above the $6 per share mark.

    The Vetr Crowd and Wall Street analysts appear to agree on a bullish rating, but disagree on Plug Power’s potential upside. As an example, analysts at Craig-Hallum initiated coverage of the stock back in July with a Buy rating and $3.50 price target. Analysts at Dougherty & Company also initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating back in April, although with a slightly higher price target of $3.70.

    Image Credit: Public Domain

    Posted-In: Analyst Color Long Ideas Short Ideas Crowdsourcing Top Stories Analyst Ratings Trading Ideas General Best of Benzinga

    Miners: The Best Way To Play A Rate Hike?

    Courtesy of Benzinga.

    Miners: The Best Way To Play A Rate Hike?
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  • Credit Suisse believes that the mining sector could offer the best buying opportunity ahead of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
  • Fed tightening will likely lead to weakness in the U.S. dollar.
  • Historically, commodity prices have outperformed in the six month following the first rate hike of a tightening cycle.
  • The latest U.S. economic numbers make the case for an imminent Fed rate hike even stronger. The question on all traders’ minds is how to play rising interest rates. Although conventional belief is that financials are the major beneficiaries of higher rates, Credit Suisse recently discussed another approach to trading a Fed rate hike.

    The Idea

    According to a new Credit Suisse report, the first Fed rate hike will likely put an end to the U.S. dollar rally. Historically, the dollar has performed weakly after the beginning of the past five rate hike cycles.

    The Impact

    As a result, commodity prices will likely find some much-needed support following the first U.S. rate hike. “In the following 1/3/6 months we tend to see the Commod sectors (particularly the Miners) outperform [...] as one would expect with a weaker USD and the positive translation to Commod pricing,” Credit Suisse explained.

    Related Link: How Have Bank Stocks Traded During The Last Three Fed Tightening Cycles?

    Why Not Banks?

    In theory, rising rates should provide a boost banks' bottom lines. A large part of banks’ profits comes from the spread between the interest they collect from long-term loans and the interest they pay on short-term debt. While a rise in interest rates across the board doesn’t necessarily improve this spread, it theoretically gives banks more wiggle room when it comes to their net interest margins…
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    Piper Jaffray's Erinn Murphy Upgrades Coach To Overweight

    Courtesy of Benzinga.

    Piper Jaffray's Erinn Murphy Upgrades Coach To Overweight

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  • Shares of Coach Inc (NYSE: COH) have appreciated 3.93 percent over the past month, after having dipped close to their 52-week low on September 28.
  • Piper Jaffray’s Erinn E. Murphy has upgraded the rating on the company from Neutral to Overweight, while raising the price target from $33 to $37.
  • Murphy believes that the Coach brand is likely to see near-term improvement, driven by new product flows, price points being better balanced across its assortment and the gradual return of lapsed customers.
  • Analyst Erinn Murphy mentioned that quarter-to-date checks suggest that Coach is executing on plan.

    “We believe we are seeing the sequential improvement in comp from both a new customer that is coming to the brand from categories like footwear and RTW as well as a lapsed customer that is responding well to Stuart Vever's use of the iconic Coach brand elements including glovetanned leather,” Murphy stated.

    Related Link: UPDATE: Piper Jaffray’s Murphy On Coach Brand Is Showing Signs Of Near-Term Improvement

    Conversion is likely to have continued to improve, driven by tighter promotions year-on-year, while collections like Swagger are being received well across the globe.

    Murphy believes there are various catalysts that would drive comps to turn positive by FQ4, such as increased penetration of the under $300 handbags, store refreshes prior to the holiday season and increased penetration of the Stuart Vever line at outlets.

    Meetings with the CEO and management team during the quarter have raised Murphy’s confidence in the “strategic direction of Coach's turnaround.”

    Image Credit: By Raysonho @ Open Grid Scheduler / Grid Engine (Own work) [CC0], via Wikimedia Commons

    Latest Ratings for COH

    Date Firm Action From To
    Dec 2015 Piper Jaffray Upgrades Neutral Overweight
    Oct 2015 Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Hold
    Oct 2015 Susquehanna Initiates Coverage on Positive

    View More Analyst Ratings for COH
    View the Latest Analyst Ratings

    Posted-In: Erinn E. MurphyAnalyst Color Long Ideas Upgrades Price Target Top Stories Analyst Ratings Trading Ideas Best of Benzinga

    GoPro Crashes Again After Morgan Stanley Downgrade And 38% Downside Forecast

    Courtesy of Benzinga.

    GoPro Crashes Again After Morgan Stanley Downgrade And 38% Downside Forecast

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    Why A GoPro Acquisition Won't Happen In 2016 (Seeking Alpha)

    • Shares of GoPro Inc (NASDAQ: GPRO) have declined 69.71 percent year to date, trading almost at their 52 week low on December 9.
    • Morgan Stanley’s James E. Faucette has downgraded the rating on the company from Equal-weight to Underweight, while lowering the price target from $23 to $12.
    • The downgrade is based on expectations of stagnation in product growth, along with pressure on the stock valuation. Faucette also expects high inventory levels to continue into 2016.

    Analyst James Faucette agreed with management that the weak response to the Session camera was due to various issues, including low consumer awareness, while stating that the bigger issue was that “key challenges of off-loading, storage, and editing content” had not been effectively addressed for a product intended to be “taken anywhere to record everything.”

    The upgraded HERO 5 cameras are expected to lead in 2016, despite the lack of adequate improvements to make off-loading and editing easier. In addition, limited improvements associated with video editing usability is expected to limit the adoption of quadcopter/Karma.

    “Almost all retailers we have spoken with are seeing YoY declines in sales, waning interest in the category and product availability mix shifting to lower price points,” Faucette stated, while adding that “channel inventory is unlikely to be declining fast enough to hit targeted levels by the end of the year to adequately reflect retailers' reduced commitment to the product segment.”

    The Q4 revenue and EPS estimates have been lowered from $527 million and $0.2 to $449 million and $0.07, respectively. The FY16 revenue and EPS estimates have been lowered from $2 billion and $1.14 to $1.6 billion and $0.66, respectively.

    Latest Ratings for GPRO

    Date Firm Action From To
    Dec 2015 Morgan Stanley Downgrades Equal-weight Underweight
    Dec 2015 Citigroup Downgrades Buy Neutral
    Dec 2015 Baird Downgrades Outperform Neutral

    View More Analyst Ratings for GPRO
    View the Latest Analyst Ratings

    Posted-In: Analyst Color News Short Ideas Downgrades Price Target Events Top Stories Pre-Market Outlook Best of Benzinga

    The Neocon’s Hegemonic Goal Is Driving The World To Extinction

    Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

    Submitted by Tyler Durden.

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    My warning that the neoconservatives have resurrected the threat of nuclear Armageddon, which was removed by Reagan and Gorbachev, is also being given by Noam Chomsky, former US Secretary of Defense William Perry, and other sentient observers of the neoconservatives’ aggressive policies toward Russia and China.

    Daily we observe additional aggressive actions taken by Washington and its vassals against Russia and China. For example, Washington is pressuring Kiev not to implement the Minsk agreements designed to end the conflict between the puppet government in Kiev and the break-away Russian republics.  Washington refuses to cooperate with Russia in the war against ISIS. Washington continues to blame Russia for the destruction of MH-17, while preventing an honest investigation of the attack on the Malaysian airliner. Washington continues to force its European vassals to impose sanctions on Russia based on the false claim that the conflict in Ukraine was caused by a Russian invasion of Ukraine, not by Washington’s coup in overthrowing a democratically elected government and installing a puppet answering to Washington.

    The list is long. Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF), allegedly a neutral, non-political world organization, has been suborned into the fight against Russia. Under Washington’s pressure, the IMF has abandoned its policy of refusing to lend to debtors who are in arrears in their loan payments to creditors. In the case of Ukraine’s debt to Russia, this decision removes the enforcement mechanism that prevents countries (such as Greece) from defaulting on their debts. The IMF has announced that it will lend to Ukraine in order to pay the Ukraine’s Western creditors despite the fact that Ukraine has renounced repayment of loans from Russia.

    Michael Hudson believes, correctly in my view, that this new IMF policy will also be applied to those countries to whom China has made loans. The IMF’s plan is to leave Russia and China as countries who lack the usual enforcement mechanism to collect from debtors, thus permitting debtors to default on the loans without penalty.

    In other words, the IMF is presenting itself, although the financial media will not notice, as a tool of US foreign policy.

    What this shows, and what should concern us, is that the institutions of Western civilization are in fact tools of American dominance. The institutions are not there…
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    “War Games” Show Fed Worried About Commercial Real Estate, Interest Rates; Fed Weighs Consequences of “Macroprudential Tools”

    Courtesy of Mish.

    War Games

    Inquiring minds may wish to take a peek inside a Fed ‘War Games’ Exercise conducted this past summer, just recently reported on by the Wall Street Journal.

    Commercial real-estate prices have continued to rise and are projected to far exceed levels they reached before the 2007-09 financial crisis, adjusted for inflation. Debt is building up at companies through the issuance of junk bonds and loans to low-rated firms. Small banks, money-market funds, mutual funds and government-sponsored enterprises have become big players feeding the financial system with credit. However, the large banks subject to heavy regulatory oversight aren’t big providers of credit. Borrowers are increasingly reliant upon short-term loans, which could dry up quickly in a downturn. The economy could tumble into recession if a new financial bubble bursts.

    What should the Fed do?

    The question was posed to five regional Fed bank presidents in early June in a “war games” exercise. The presidents—the Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren, Kansas City’s Esther George, New York’s William Dudley, Cleveland’s Loretta Mester and Minneapolis’s Narayana Kocherlakota, had to devise a response. They met at a regional Fed branch in Charlotte, N.C., and worked over three hours, with a whiteboard, briefing papers and lots of coffee. They emerged with a list of the pros and cons of various approaches, but no concrete road map for how to proceed.

    Fed officials also looked at whether they could demand that banks require larger down payments on loans to ensure borrowers weren’t as exposed to a large drop in real-estate prices. These “loan-to-value” rules also would have required agreement among several slow-moving regulatory agencies. Another problem was that in this scenario, large banks weren’t at the root of the problem.

    In addition, Fed officials looked closely at a little-used power the central bank has under the 1934 Securities Exchange Act to set so-called margin requirements on securities transactions, which could limit how much borrowed money banks, brokers and others can use in securities transactions.

    Perhaps the most challenging part of the discussion related to monetary policy. Former Fed governor Jeremy Stein once argued that the most effective way to stop a bubble from building might be to raise interest rates, because that approach “gets in all of the cracks” of the financial system. Some of the Fed officials in Charlotte

    continue reading


    Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

    Submitted by Tyler Durden.

    Were you reassured after President Obama’s address on terrorism?




    Guest Post: The Ugly Truth Donald Trump Has Exposed

    Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

    Submitted by Tyler Durden.

    Authored by Karl Denninger via The Market Ticker blog,

    The fear in both the GOP and Democratic party is visible at the surface when it comes to Trump, and it's not that he's any of what they've accused him of.  No, it's really much simpler than that, and both Republican and Democrat parties, along with the mainstream media, are utterly terrified that you, the average American, is going to figure out what underlies all of these institutions in America.

    No, it's not that they're evil.

    It's worse, for evil frequently is recognized and fought back yet for decades America has not awakened to what has been going on in the political and media establishment.  It was evident during the Vietnam war and has only gotten worse since.

    For those who don't recall the Tet Offensive was an attack launched by the NVA and VietCong by some 70,000 troops in a coordinated series of attacks across more than 100 targets.  It was an attempt to foment rebellion among the South's population.

    Tet failed in its military objective, in that there were too few troops spread too thinly, and once the US and South Vietnamese figured out what was going on they literally slaughtered a huge number of the attackers.  To put perspective on this at the Battle of Hue roughly 500 US Marines and South Vietnamese were killed but over 5,000 NVA and VietCong died in that one battle alone.

    The story was repeated through the country; while the North managed to attack they lost virtually the entire attacking force, while not managing to take one mile of territory.  They also failed to incite rebellion, which was the primary goal of the offensive in the first place.

    Our media, however, reported that we lost.  They were present and they lied, including Walter Cronkite. Cronkite reported in February of 1968 that the war "was a stalemate and probably unwinnable" despite knowing that the NVA had virtually been rendered soldierless in the Tet offensive as their casualty rate ran ten times the South's.

    Tet was a desperation move; the North was in serious trouble.  They were failing to take territory and losing men and material at an ridiculous rate compared to the Americans and South.  Simply put we were the better fighting force and it wasn't a close call.  In the first few days of their "offensive" they lost ten thousand men against about
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    China’s Currency Continues To Tumble As AsiaPac Credit Markets Plunge, EM Stocks Lowest Since 2009

    Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

    Submitted by Tyler Durden.

    Following weakness in the middle-east and as WTI prices slide back into the red (on the heels of record speculative shorts in crude oil), Asia-Pac stocks are opening to the downside (but only modestly). On the bright side, the ZARpocalypse has been delayed briefly as the Rand is rallying on the back of Zuma hiring a new finance minister. On the dark side, offshore Yuan continues to plummet, down 6 of the last 7 days (down 14 handles!) and the Yuan fixed weaker for the 6th day in a ro wto July 2011 lows. and signaling more turmoil ahead of The Fed's decision. AsiaPac credit markets are gapping notably wider, EM stocks down 9th day in a row to 2009 lows, and EM FX is plunging.

    AsiaPac credit markets are gapping wider… Worst day in over 2 months..


    Offshore Yuan was extending recent weakness into the Fix…

    Earlier we asked…

    And the answer is… yes

    for the 6th day in a row – and in growing size – PBOC fixed the Yuan weaker to its weakest since July 2011

    The Middle-East closed weak…

    As Oil faded…

    After Speculative crude shorts hit a new record high…

    Japanese bond futures price just hit a record high…

    And Nikkei plunged as China came to life…

    The ZARpocalypse has been delayed a little, after South Africa's president Zuma reappointed Pravin Gordan as finance minister, replacing David van Rooyen who was appointed 5 days ago only to unleash a record collapse in the Rand. It remains to be seen if the market will stabilize after an initial kneejerk spike higher in the ZAR.

    As Zuma hired a new "cooperative" finance minister.. which rallied the South African Rand briefly… but even that is fading fast now…

    Other currencies are turmoiling…


    MSCI AsiaPac (MXAPEXA)…
    continue reading

    Credit Suisse Is “Worried” These Two Charts May Abort The Fed Hiking Cycle

    Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

    Submitted by Tyler Durden.

    Despite the bloodbath in corporate credit markets, talking heads remain cognitively dissonant as to the reality lurking under the surface of this colossal leap in cost of funds for every firm. However, Credit Suisse is "worried" about the implications of these two disheartening charts expose, suggesting a default environment that might abort the Fed hiking cycle – which in this case is not a market-reassuring outcome.

    As Credit Suisse's William Porter explains, the percentage of North American companies losing money on an LTM basis in Q3 rose to a cycle high, while the ratio in Europe stayed stable, at the low end of its recent range.

    The burden of this is the correlation with the default rate. Moody's 2016 forecast is 3.8% but the relationship with this ratio now suggests something much higher, and we watch that outcome as a risk. Arguably the only market remotely priced to a much higher default rate as an outcome is US rates.

    This is not a forecast, but an observation and a watching point. With the ECB now apparently less friendly as we examine below, we become more cautious ahead of the presumed Fed hike on 16 December, particularly in terms of total return dynamics.

    Ironically, if defaults were to rise to anything like the degree this analysis suggests, it might abort the Fed hiking cycle which is a source of concern for the credit market. But we would hardly take this as a reassuring outcome.

    There is a theme at present that credit is leading other markets, and is predicting "recession." We are worried…


    Zero Hedge

    Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

    Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

    With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

    But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...

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    Phil's Favorites

    Trump and the problem with pardons


    Trump and the problem with pardons

    Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

    As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

    My researc...

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    Insider Scoop

    Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

    Courtesy of Benzinga.

    After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

    Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

    The Analyst

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    Kimble Charting Solutions

    DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

    Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

    Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

    This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

    It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

    After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...

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    Chart School

    Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

    Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

    Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!

    Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

    This is a classic! ha!

    Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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    Digital Currencies

    Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


    Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

    The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

    Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

    The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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    DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

    Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


    DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

    A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

    Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


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    More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

    By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

    Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

    rawpixel / Pixabay

    Friends and Fellow Investors:

    For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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    Members' Corner

    Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

    Are you ready to retire?  

    For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

    Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

    Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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    Mapping The Market

    It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

    A good start from :

    It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


    The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

    This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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    Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

    Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


    This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

    We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

    Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

    To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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    Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



    Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

    Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

    In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

    This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

    Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


    ·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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    About Phil:

    Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

    Learn more About Phil >>

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    About Ilene:

    Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

    Market Shadows >>