Archive for 2015

The Dominoes Keep Falling: Leftward Lurches And EM Defaults

Courtesy of John Rubino

Sometimes one big event dominates the landscape, like last week when the Fed raised interest rates. Other times a bunch of less-universally-significant-things add up to a meaningful story. And the story that follows here is, of course (given the venue), ominous.

First up is the much-discussed US$9 trillion that developing countries borrowed back when the dollar was weak and their currencies were relatively strong. Pundits have been warning that with the dollar soaring this debt was largely underwater and therefore a threat. But as far as anyone could tell it wasn’t blowing anything up.

Then on Friday a big Mexican construction company defaulted:

CA Skips Debt Payment as $1.35 Billion Bond Default Looms

(Bloomberg) – Empresas ICA SAB will skip a debt payment due by the end of the month as Mexico’s biggest construction company heads for the nation’s biggest default in at least two decades. Stocks and bonds declined.

 

The builder won’t pay $31 million in interest on its $700 million in bonds maturing in 2024, the company said Friday in a statement. ICA was using a 30-day grace period that ends Dec. 29. The company will be forced to halt payments on all of its $1.35 billion in overseas notes, eclipsing glassmaker Vitro SAB as the biggest corporate bond defaulter in Mexico since Moody’s Investors Service began tracking the data in 1995, according to the rating company.

The announcement caps a year in which ICA posted its biggest quarterly loss in 14 years as the government cut back infrastructure projects and the plunge in Mexico’s peso drove up the company’s leverage. The company will work on a cost-cutting and restructuring plan to be completed by mid-February, advised by Rothschild & Co. and FTI Consulting. ICA appointed board member Alfonso Gonzalez Migoya as co-chief executive officer.

ICA had coupon payments looming over the next two months for its two other dollar bonds maturing in 2017 and 2021, with the first one due Jan. 24. The company reported total debt of 57.9 billion pesos as of September 30.

Now multiply the above by, oh, a thousand, and you get a sense of what could happen in 2016 if the dollar stays strong, commodity prices stay low, and the…
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Northern Tier and Western Refining Announce Definitive Merger Agreement

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Western Refining, Inc. (NYSE: WNR) and Northern Tier Energy LP (NYSE: NTI) today jointly announced that they have entered into a merger agreement whereby Western will acquire all of NTI’s outstanding common units not already owned by Western.

Under the terms of the merger agreement, NTI unitholders will receive $15.00 in cash and 0.2986 of a share of WNR common stock for each NTI common unit held. Using the WNR 20-day volume weighted average price as of October 23, 2015 (the last trading day before WNR made its initial offer to acquire all of NTI’s outstanding common units) results in an implied consideration of $28.34 for each NTI unit. This represents an 18% premium to the 20-day volume weighted average price of NTI’s common unit price as of October 23, 2015.

As an alternative to the cash and stock consideration, each NTI unitholder may elect to receive, per NTI unit, either $26.06 in cash or 0.7036 of a share of WNR. The election will be subject to proration to ensure that the aggregate cash paid and WNR common stock issued in the merger will equal the total amount of cash and number of shares of WNR common stock that would have been paid and delivered if all NTI unitholders received $15.00 in cash and 0.2986 of a share of Western common stock per NTI common unit. Upon completion, NTI unitholders are expected to own approximately 15% of WNR. The transaction is expected to close in the first half…
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EXCLUSIVE: Sinopec In Talks To Acquire Anadarko Petroleum

Courtesy of Benzinga.

EXCLUSIVE: Sinopec In Talks To Acquire Anadarko Petroleum
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Report: Sinopec in talks to acquire Anadarko Petroleum (Seeking Alpha)

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (ADR) (NYSE: SNP) — commonly referred to as Sinopec — is mulling a takeover of Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC), source familiar with the matter told Benzinga.

China Petroleum is an $89 billion market cap company involved in the crude oil and natural gas space. Anadarko is an independent exploration and production with a market cap of about $23.4 billion. Both stocks were trading lower on Monday, following weakness in the energy sector.

HSBC Bank is financing the deal, according to the source.

Shares of Anadarko spiked to a high of $47.72 on Monday following the news; The stock closed at $46.55, up 1.9 percent.

Stifel analyst Michael Scialla told Benzinga the rumor fits into the story around the China gas sector and the understood benefits of Anadarko inventory and Permian exposure. "A bid from a China company for Anadarko would make sense given APC inventories and Permian Basin exposure."

Scialla said Anadarko's inventory and exposure to Permian Basin jives with China story of oil and gas companies seeking oil inventory. The Permian Basin is a hot location and Sinopec would benefit from exposure there. However, the analyst thought Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) looked to be the most likely buyer.

Oppenheimer analyst Fadel Gheit said that although anything is possible, a deal between Sinopec acquiring Anadarko has low probability, specifically a less than 50 percent chance due to regulatory concerns. However, he did say that Anadarko is believed to be a takeover…
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EXCLUSIVE: AVEO CEO Explains How New Partnership Will Address $500 Million Opportunity Overseas

Courtesy of Benzinga.

EXCLUSIVE: AVEO CEO Explains How New Partnership Will Address $500 Million Opportunity Overseas
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AVEO Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AVEO) has announced a partnership with EUSA Pharma granting EUSA exclusive European rights to tivozanib.

• The deal could reportedly generate nearly $400 million for AVEO.

AVEO CEO Michael Bailey told Benzinga that the tivozanib deal is the last piece of the puzzle in AVEO’s 2015 strategy.

Aveo Pharmaceuticals shares are surging more than 29 percent in early trading on Monday following an announcement by the company of a new partnership with EUSA Pharma granting EUSA exclusive European distribution rights for advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) treatment tivozanib.

Following the announcement, Benzinga had the chance to speak with AVEO CEO Michael Bailey about the new deal.

Importance Of The Deal

Bailey told Benzinga that AVEO is primarily focusing most of its efforts on North America and that the company strives to maintain exclusive rights to tivozanib in that critical market. However, global partnerships with companies like EUSA are an important part of unlocking the full value of the drug.

“This deal represents an important milestone for AVEO in the fulfillment of that overall strategy,” Bailey added.

Tivozanib Advantage

When asked about how tivozanib compares to peer treatments, Bailey explained why AVEO is so optimistic about the drug’s impact in the $500 million-plus European RCC market. He highlighted three characteristics that differentiate tivozanib from other treatments in the market:

1. It is among the most potent small molecule VEGF inhibitors.

2. It…
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Bank Of America Is Still Buying Disney

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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  • Shares of Walt Disney Co (NYSE: DIS) have appreciated 14.21 percent year-to-date, while declining 10.41 percent over the past month.
  • Jessica Reif Cohen of Bank of America Merrill Lynch has maintained a Buy rating on the company, with a price objective of $130.
  • Cohen believes that the early success of "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" bodes extremely well for the company's business model, given that it can further monetize "Star Wars" content.

According to the Bank of America report, “After much anticipation, Star Wars: The Force Awakens has opened strong in the U.S. and abroad, grossing $238mn in opening weekend domestic box office and an estimated $279mn at the international box office.”

Related Link: Despite Massive 'Star Wars' Potential, Jefferies Is Still Waiting On The Sidelines Of Disney

In the US, this movie has seen the highest opening weekend in the history of December openings, as well as the highest opening weekend ever, the largest Thursday night preview, the largest Friday, opening day, the largest single day and the fastest to gross $100 million.

Internationally, the movie failed to break the opening weekend record set by "Jurassic World," partly given that the movie will open in China only on January 9, 2016.

“While The Force’s initial results are highly encouraging for DIS’ FY16 estimates and the multi-year runway of the rejuvenated Star Wars franchise, opening weekend performance remains just a window into a wide range of ultimate outcomes,” the report mentioned.

Given the initial strength of The Force Awakens, the ultimate domestic box office could reach $700-$800 million.

“Importantly, direct competition appears light over the next few weeks, suggesting the film’s runway is clear. Repeat visitation is also a significant swing factor considering the franchise’s relatively passionate fan base,” the report added.

Latest Ratings for DIS

Date Firm Action From To
Dec 2015 Goldman Sachs Maintains Neutral
Nov 2015 Guggenheim Securities Downgrades Buy Neutral
Nov 2015 Credit Suisse Maintains Outperform

View More Analyst Ratings for DIS
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Jessica Reif Cohen Star WarsAnalyst Color Long Ideas Reiteration Analyst Ratings Trading Ideas





Vetr Crowd Upgrades Weight Watchers To 3-Star Rating

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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The Vetr community has upgraded $WTW to 3-Stars. (Vetr)

The Vetr crowd turned incrementally bullish on Weight Watchers International, Inc. (NYSE: WTW)'s stock and upgraded its rating to three stars out of a possible five stars.

Shares of Weight Watchers has risen to $20.99 since the prior rating of 2.5 stars was issued just five days ago.

Related Link: Vetr Crowd Upgrades Weight Watchers, Sees Even More Upside Coming

Despite the upgrade, 58 percent of the crowd's ratings are bearish. On the other hand, the crowd-sourced price target of $22.87 implies an upside just shy of 7 percent.

Jamal Stone, a member of the crowd, pointed out that Weight Watchers' stands to benefit following the company's partnership with Oprah Winfrey. The member noted that the company will receive "great exposure" from Winfrey who has a "huge influence" across the world.

Latest Ratings for WTW

Date Firm Action From To
Oct 2015 Standpoint Research Downgrades Buy Hold
Oct 2015 Barclays Upgrades Underweight Equal-weight
Oct 2015 Craig-Hallum Maintains Outperform

View More Analyst Ratings for WTW
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Oprah Winfrey Vetr Vetr CrowdAnalyst Color Upgrades Crowdsourcing Analyst Ratings General





Why Did Credit Suisse Just Upgrade Oilfield Service & Equipment Stocks?

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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• Credit Suisse has upgraded several oil services stocks to Outperform.

• The firm believes that the beginning of February could mark an inflection point for the industry.

• Credit Suisse predicts that the ultimate bottom in U.S. drilling activity is likely coming in the Spring of 2016.

In a new report, Credit Suisse analyst James Wicklund has upgraded a handful of names in the oil services industry. Wicklund believes that investors should be scooping up shares of companies with unconventional North American exposure between now and the beginning of February.

Seasonal Cyclicality

Wicklund points out that February typically marks the end of a six-month market discount period for oil services stocks and that these names typically rebound from early February through at least mid-April. U.S. drilling activity is typically about 7.0 percent higher in the second half of the year than the first half.

The oil services sector was up 12 percent from Feb. 1 to April 15 in 2015.

Bottom Of The Cycle?

Despite the optimism, Credit Suisse is still among the consensus that believes onshore U.S. activity will be down in 2016 compared to 2015. However, the firm believes that oil prices will begin their recovery by the end of next year.

“Looking at the historical seasonality of U.S. drilling activity, and based on that conventional wisdom, it would appear that the cyclical bottom of activity, for what is considered the second-worst downcycle in 30 years, will be in the spring of 2016,” Wicklund explains.

Upgrades

In light of the firm’s belief that a recovery could begin as soon as February, Credit Suisse has upgraded the following stocks from Neutral to Outperform: Forum Energy Technologies Inc (NYSE: FET), Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE: NBR) and Superior
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Piper Jaffray Shows Continued Concern On GoPro, Warns Of 'Material Pricing Pressure' On HERO Models

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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  • GoPro Inc (NASDAQ: GPRO) shares have lost 45 percent in the last three months, and are trading close to the lower end of their 52-week range of $15.90 – $69.75.
  • Piper Jaffray’s Erinn E. Murphy maintained an Underweight rating on the company, and a price target of $15.
  • The company could continue to clear inventory, at the cost of its margins, Murphy stated.

GoPro's blended pricing is around 20 percent below the September levels. The Amazon price and rank analysis indicates that GoPro continues to witness significant pricing pressure, not merely for the HERO Session, but also for other core models, analyst Erinn Murphy said.

While this has resulted in a modest increase in rankings, the company could still be clearing inventory, which would come at the cost of margin. “We have a downward bias on our Q4 EPS of $0.28 (Street: $0.33),” Murphy wrote.

GoPro’s profitability is likely to be under pressure on account of a number of reasons. During its latest quarterly earnings call, the company indicates that inventory was up 147 percent, and up 70 percent excluding new product, during the quarter. This compares with sales being up 43 percent y/y.

“We note management is working diligently to clear this inventory. In addition to price cuts on AMZN, we have also seen the HERO Session product cleared on several adjacent channels including QVC in recent weeks in which the company commented they sold 16k units in 36 hours,” the Piper Jaffray report stated.

Murphy added that there new product is likely in 2016, including an update to the HERO platform as well as a quadcopter. He added, however, that there is concern regarding the current inventory levels in the channel and “the lingering economic impacts of recent price reductions.”

Latest Ratings for GPRO

Date Firm Action From To
Dec 2015 Morgan Stanley Downgrades Equal-weight Underweight
Dec 2015 Citigroup Downgrades Buy Neutral
Dec 2015 Baird Downgrades Outperform Neutral

View More Analyst Ratings for GPRO
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Erinn E. Murphy Piper JaffrayAnalyst Color Short Ideas Reiteration Analyst Ratings Trading Ideas





Boise Cascade Acquires Engineered Lumber Unit From Georgia-Pacific For $215 Million

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Boise Cascade Co (NYSE: BCC), a plywood and engineered wood products manufacturer and materials distributor, has agreed to acquire Georgia-Pacific's engineered lumber business for $215 million.

Georgia-Pacific, a Koch Industries subsidiary, is one of the largest manufacturers and distributors of tissue, pulp, paper, toilet paper and paper towel products. The company's Vice President noted in a press release that while its lumber business has been profitable, it is not a core segment and part of its overall building products division.

"We believe this potential sale to an established player in the industry is in the best interest of our engineered lumber employees, customers and stakeholders," Mark Luetters, Georgia-Pacific's Executive Vice President commented in the press release.

Posted-In: Georgia-Pacific Koch Industries Mark Luetters Paper ProductsNews M&A





As Wall Street Vultures Circle The Next Junk Bond Fund Casualty, A Familiar Name Emerges

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Now that all the suspense surrounding the Fed’s rate hike is gone, and only questions about the future of risk assets and deflation remain in a “Policy Mistake” world, the market’s attention is turning back to the disturbing topic which spread like wildfire two weeks ago when first Third Avenue, and then several more mutual and hedge funds announced they would liquidate while imposing redemption “gates.”

To be sure, the spin doctors scrambled to make the Third Avenue junk bond fund collapse a unique, one-off situation, however subsequent fund flow data released late last week suggested that the pain for debt (and especially high yield) funds is only beginning. As we wrote on Thursday night, in a development that is certain to further exacerbate the (in)stability of the bond market, Bank of America wrote that there was  “Carnage in Fixed Income” as a result of the largest outflow from junk bond funds in at least a year.

It wasn’t just junk: as the FT chimed in, investment grade – that all important category for funding stock buybacks – was also slammed as “investment grade bond funds in the US have been hit with a record wave of redemptions, a week after two high-yield funds announced they would shutter and another barred withdrawals as the credit market showed further cracks.” This was the largest outflows since Lipper began tracking flows in 1992.

And despite rising briefly, bond prices resumed their fall over the past week following the fading euphoria from Yellen’s rate hike decision (which is very adverse for all fixed income products) the combination of redemptions and further price declines will quickly turn quite deadly for many funds who have been scrambling to juggle both sliding AUMs and droppinh prices, and are hanging on by a thread. 

So in what may be an attempt to create some more volatility (after all a flatter yield curve means that only a surge in volatility can help bank profits) Citi’s William Katz writes that he “spent the last few days combing AUM releases, prospectuses, Morningstar, Simfund, and Statements of Additional Information in an effort to gauge High Yield dynamics across our Coverage universe” and specifically to determine which mutual fund(s) will follow Third Avenue next into the twilight zone.

And so Wall Street…
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Zero Hedge

World Trade War I: US Asks South Korea To Join Anti-Huawei Campaign

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The bilateral trade war between the US and China is gradually becoming a global trade war of global geopolitical and commercial dominance between the US and Chinese spheres of influence.

Shortly after the two largest mobile phone companies in the UK decided against launching Huawei-built 5G phones this morning, and roughly around the time a bevy of Japanese tech and telecom companies including ARM Holdings, Panasonic and SoftBank all imposed a boycott on supplying Huawei with mission critical components joining Australia, and New Zealand as major US allies to end commercial relat...



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Phil's Favorites

Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations

 

Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations

rblfmr / Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Colley, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

The year of the tech IPO is 2019. Uber went public on May 10 with a US$82.4 billion valuation. Fellow ride-sharing app Lyft floated in March with a U$24 billion valuation and Pinterest had a US$10 billion IPO in April...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Emerging Markets About To Submerge If 3-Year Support Breaks?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are Emerging Markets about to “Submerge” and head a good deal lower? What they do at (3) will go a long way in answering this question!

Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has been lagging the broad market for the past 15-months. They hit their 50% retracement level of the last year’s highs and lows and falling resistance at (2) recently. The weakness of last has EEM trading below its 200-MA line.

EEM has spent the majority of the past 3-years inside of rising channel (1), which reflects that this trend remains up. The weakness of late has it testing the bo...



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Insider Scoop

Amgen To Buy Danish Collaborator Nuevolution For $167M

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) took a logical step forward in buying a preclinical biotech it has been collaborating with since 2016. 

What Happened

Amgen announced Wednesday an agreement to buy Copenhagen-based Nuevolution for $167 million.

Th...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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