(Shout) a little bit softer now
(Shout) a little bit louder now
Jump up and shout now
(Shout) a little bit softer now
(Shout) a little bit louder now
Hey-hey-a hey
Shooby-doo-wop-do-wop-wop-wop-wop
(Shout) a little bit softer now
(Shout) a little bit louder now
This is one crazy MoFo market – and so much fun to trade!
Just this morning we had some crazy Gasoline (/RB) Futures trades in our Live Member Chat Room as it plunged from our $1.50 long line (after hitting $1.51) all the way back to $1.47 where we doubled down and now we're out even at $1.485 and hoping for a return to $1.51 for a $1,050 per contract gain to take us into the holiday weekend. Of course the gain is better if you waited for $1.47 before starting – but we didn't.
Heading into the holiday (and bear with me as I like to pretend fundamentals still matter):
- Puerto Rico is missing their $2Bn bond payment today and will go into default, triggering payouts of similar Billions from the bond insurers like (AMBC) and (AGO), so we'll keep an eye on their stocks. There may be a last minute save but a tough thing to pull off on a Friday before a holiday – you know Congress is already gone…
- Gold flew back to $1,340 this morning so you know something is up. Silver (our old favorite metal) is now $19.30 and yes, we still have SLW in the LTP, so far in the money it's boring now and on track for the full $4,000 gain – up 800% on cash in the LTP and, for the low-margin crowd, the STP has a smaller trade we will cash out here at $26,000 against net $2,400 invested on 10/16 (983%). You know we love a trade when it's in our Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolio!
- Now Europe is having a temper tantrum because the UK won't leave. Yes, they voted to leave but they haven't officially asked to leave and they don't plan on doing so probably until next year. The EU now doesn't want them to stay but has no way to kick them out so the UK is now like the girl on the cheerleading squad who hates the head cheerleader and all the girls want her to leave but she won't and now they resent everything she does and everything she says (yes, I have daughters!).
- A human foot washed up on the beach where the Olympic volleyball team will be playing in Brazil next month and the police are waging a war with local druglords in an attempt to clean out the areas where the tourists will be staying. The state of Rio De Janeiro has declared a "State of Public Calamity" as preparation costs have emptied the treasury to the point where basic public services cannot be provided. Rio has already defaulted on an $8.4M bond. Thousands of Rio civil servants, from doctors at public hospitals to firefighters, are threatening to strike over unpaid salaries and poor working conditions. This will be fun! The State has asked the military to take over security – more fun! And let's not forget Zika:
“Brazil: Come for the Sport, Stay ’Cause You’re Dead.”
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China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index edged down to 50 in June after 3 months of expansion. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI, a competing private measure, came in at 48.6 in June, down from 49.2 in May—the fastest decline in four months.
- Japan's core CPI FELL 0.4% while Economic Confidence remained well below normal (50) at 41.8 and Business Activity also came in with shrinkage at 48.1 despite strong auto sales. Even new orders are in contraction at 46.1. Keep in mind this is WHILE the BOJ is pushing 10% of the GDP into stimulus measures.
Think of Japan as a really, really old country that is in the hospital on life support (stimulus). It's costing a fortune to keep them alive and their quality of life sucks anyway – at some point, the plug will have to be pulled…
Until then, things are so bad in the Europe and Japan that expectations are that the Central Banksters will be cranking up the presses and showering the people with MORE FREE MONEY. The BOJ meets July 29th and that one is considered a sure thing and, of course, the markets are back to their highs but we are maintaining a slightly bearish bias into the weekend AND into earnings – just in case.
Have a great weekend,
– Phil
