Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook.
The latest reading of 59 was a one point drop and a point below the Investing.com forecast of 60.
Here is the opening of this morning’s monthly report:
Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes in July fell one point to 59 from a June reading of 60 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.
“For the past six months, builder confidence has remained in a relatively narrow positive range that is consistent with the ongoing gradual housing recovery that is underway,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady, a home builder and developer from Bloomington, Ill. “However, we are still hearing reports from our members of scattered softness in some markets, due largely to regulatory constraints and shortages of lots and labor.” [link to report]
Here is the historical series, which dates from 1985.
The HMI correlates fairly closely with broad measures of consumer confidence. Here is a pair of overlays with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index.
The HMI is an interesting prelude to tomorrow’s release of Building Permits and Housing Starts.
For additional perspectives on residential real estate, here is the complete list of our monthly updates:
