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Just Another Manic Monday

Image result for Sell the house, sell the car, sell the kids wool"SELL EVERYTHING!"  

That's what Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital is telling people this morning as he said many asset classes look frothy and his firm is hanging onto gold to hedge their cash, saying:

"The artist Christopher Wool has a word painting, 'Sell the house, sell the car, sell the kids.'  That's exactly how I feel sell everything. Nothing here looks good, Gundlach said in a telephone interview. "  The stock markets should be down massively but investors seem to have been hypnotized that nothing can go wrong."

Well, halfway through summer vacation, he had me at "sell the kids!"  Gundlach is not alone, however.  Now Goldman Sach's (GS) Christian Mueller-Glissmann has gone outright bearish, with a "tactical downgrade to equities for the next 3 months."  Here is the reasoning behind Goldman's creeping sense of gloom: 

  • The rally in risky assets over the past few weeks has continued n and broadened – the S&P 500 has made all-time highs, the VIX has fallen, bonds and ‘safe havens’ started to sell off, and cyclicals have outperformed defensives.
  • We think a key driver of the recovery has been a combination of the light positioning into Brexit and the search for yield amid expectations of easing.
  • However, given equities remain expensive and earnings growth is poor, in our view equities are now just at the upper end of their ‘fat and flat’ range.
  • Our risk appetite indicator is near neutral levels and its positive momentum has faded, suggesting positioning will give less support and we will need better macro fundamentals or stimulus to keep the risk rally going, but market expectations are already dovish and growth pick-up should take time.
  • As a result, we downgrade equities tactically to Underweight over 3 months, but remain Neutral over 12 months. We remain Overweight cash and would look for resets lower in equities to add positions.

I cannot tell you how much it bothers me to have GS make the same call as I made for our Members as they are so often so spectacularly wrong but, since I made the call first and their call is almost word for word my call – I'm not too worried as they clearly referenced excellent sources to come to their highly-paid conclusion.

In fact, in the past two weeks, our paired long and short-term portfolios have lost about $4,800 (0.3%) while the market rallied as we locked ourselves down in neutral into the July 4th weekend and haven't changed our mind since.  Our Butterfly Portfolio and our Options Opportunity Portfolio made a bit of money but also in a tight range as we have already done what Goldman is now telling their HNW clients to do in this recent report.  

We're still shorting the Dow Futures (/YM) at 18,400, of course and I put out a note to our Members during last night's surge to look for shorts at the following levels:

Futures up half a point now:  18,450 (/YM), 2,177 (/ES), 4,743 (/NQ), 1,224.60 (/TF) and 16,675 (/NKD).  If the Nikkei backs off, that might be a good sign to look for other crosses to short but I'm going to bed.

Lines – 18,450, 2,175, 4,725 , 1,225 and 16,660 are the lines I'd use for now and watch the Dollar (95.63) not to go below $95.50 

Already those are all in the money.  As you can see from the Dow chart, we nailed the top at 18,450 and already back below 18,400 is a $250 per contract gain – good enough to pay for our Egg McMuffins ahead of the open!  On Friday, in our Live Member Chat Room, we had a great time trading the Russell Futures with a simple 4 contract trade making $2,850 in one hour and 21 minutes ($712.50 per contract) from about the same level. 

This morning, we're right back near that 1,225 line and, if the market wants to keep setting them up for us – we'll keep taking the trades, right?  Using the Russell Futures (/TF), every one-point move on the index is $100 per contract so you have to be very careful with these futures trades but it's a fun way to make money with your sideline cash.  You can see us setting up another $3,000 winner live in last week's Live Trading Webinar – we do this every week folks – come and join us next time!  

This week, we have for some reason, only Kaplan speaking for the Fed (twice), which is odd the week after a decision so it seems he's been selected to keep the Fed's message tight.  Non-Farm Payrolls are the Big Kahuna on Friday but there's plenty of other reports and PLENTY of earnings as we hit peak reporting this week so hold on for a wild ride and don't forget your CASH!!! 

 


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  1. Hi Guys,

    Still above water with my 24 per year plays. Only VLO shows some serious damage.

    GILD even after Friday’s drop to just below 80 we still show 4.3 % up. I did purchase the stock 19 weeks ago and I gained about 1 % per month. Not the greatest but still on the positive side.

    Same applies to NKE still I show an upside of 4 %.

    AAPL well just in 13 weeks we reached 19% thanks to the good performance of AAPL.

    VLO regret down 15% , we see how this will work out. Here we need a bit of upwind!!!

    Enjoy reading, any questions well come.

    Yodi

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14M1S8fE4QXm3GFUb_W5js-tGx8myd-Ucu_Z6uHT7now/edit?usp=sharing

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zKO4uLrmxwaFFT9kodYPU5Qymx0V-MdwaquzlkLGO0k/edit?usp=sharing



  2. Good morning! 

    Thank goodness for the Simpsons, still giving us those valuable life lessons:

    VLO/Yodi – Not looking good.

    In the Butterfly Portfolio, we sold the VLO Sept $52.50 calls and $47.50 puts back in June, so right on track for where we expect them to be.  After that we'll probably get a bit more bullish.  

    Giraffe Chart – They are starting to look thirsty!  


  3. Trust a hedge 'fun' guy to quote a $26,000,000 poster quote that was lifted from the best movie of all time. 


  4. Good Morning!


  5. I can't believe that's considered art.  The Top 0.01% really do have way too much money – if the Government doesn't take it from them, they'll only waste it on stupid crap like that!  

    Actually, I was thinking about that this weekend because the Harry Potter thing opened in London and, of course, you can't get a ticket because rich people from all over the World have flown in to see the show.  So, in addition to the tickets, they spend $5,000 for a weekend in London and it's nothing to them.  That then drives up the price of things for real fans, who can't afford seats as there's no democratic way to wait on line like there used to be in the old days.  Good example of how computerization totally favors the Top 1%.

    When we were at Action Park, they have preferred parking for $30 that saves you 5 mins walking up a steep hill but the whole park is steep hills (it's build on a ski mountain) so what's one more but the lot was FULL of cars and my kids were saying they could set up a golf cart service where they take people back and forth to the lower lot for $5 a person.  Very smart!  


  6. Action Park! – I have several scars from action park trips back in my youth.  Fun stuff


  7. Hey good shorting lines if they break right here at 18,370, 2,165, 4,725 and 1,215 (/NKD 16,500, Dollar 95.68) as they are all pink (center) lines on the pivot points so of course they are going to weak bounce but then maybe a break – especially if DAX fails 10,300 and EuroStoxx fail 2,960:


  8. Those are now our stop lines as we go below from the morning shorts!  


  9. Great run from my overnight shorts on /ym and /tf.  Both stopped out now @ 18320 & 1210.

    Looking for a reload.  Keep us in the loop when you pull the trigger.

    18326 <18,370

    2164 = 2,165 

    4733 > 4,725

    1213 < 1,215

    So I'm waiting for /ES to go below and then looking at /NQ for a short. 


  10. And up we go!  


  11. Oil slapped down.  I was wondering what they were all excited about after all those negative articles this morning.

    Action Park/Jeff – Only in NJ can you take a stranger's kid to a park and promise to try to bring him home "not too banged up".  It's very sanitized from when we were kids but still very unsafe compared to any other water park I've seen, which is great because kids should be able to leap off cliffs into water if they want to!  They've done a good job of maintaining a kind of lax attitude with the lifeguards, who are there to save people and keep people from getting too crazy but they don't blow the whistle every time someone colors outside the lines.  

    Up/Burr – That's why we keep tight stops on our profits. Keep an eye on those pivot points – very much in play today with the Nas now testing R1 (4,740) while the others are back at pink.  Should be rejected here if we're bearish so Nas is best short at this exact moment (tugboats). 


  12. September rate hike still on the table…

    Hahahahaha, oldie but goodie!


  13. Nobody ever tells you they glued it to the table.


  14. LABU up big.

    PFE creeps up to new yrly high.  Slow and steady with this one.


  15. Check out my Mom in 1944!  

    And here she is 72 years later with 4 of her 11 grandchildren (my contributions are on the outside, the other two are Andy's kids):

    Nas blasting up to R2 (top red line) at 4,752 – that should really be the top so I like /NQ officially now below the 4,750 line with TIGHT stops above. 

    Mixed news moving market – no reason for Fed to act despite what Kaplan said at 8:30:

    Fed's Kaplan: September rate hike not off the table

    • Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan feels that a rate increase at the next policy meeting in September is still possible even after a report last week showed Q2 growth was weaker than expected.
    • Data will be revised and Fed policy makers will get two more employment reports before the next meeting, he said in a Bloomberg interview in Beijing.
    • "We still believe the consumer will be strong in 2016, but it makes us also be very watchful for the next number of data releases to see what trend we're on."

    Construction spending declines for the third consecutive month

    • June Construction Spending-0.6% M/M to $1,133.54B, vs. +0.5% expected, -0.1% (revised) prior.
    • Private construction spend: $850.03B
    • Public construction spend: $282.51B.

    Manufacturing sector expands for fifth consecutive month

    Manufacturing PMI rises to 52.9 in July

    RBS and Barclays on watch after showing cracks in European stress tests

    • Shares of RBS (NYSE:RBS) are lower in early trading after the bank showed some signs of weakness in stress tests of European banks.
    • Though RBS passed the test by the European Banking Authority, the fall of its capital ratio to 8% is in the spotlight.
    • Barclays (NYSE:BCS) showed similar weakness, with an unexpected drop in its capital ratio to 7.3% under the stress test scenario.
    • Italy’s Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena was the only bank to be wiped out in the healthiness check.
    • Full European bank stress test results (.pdf)
    • RBS -1.76% premarket to $5.01.

    Good, I like them better as one company!  Transocean buys out interest in Transocean Partners

    • Transocean (NYSE:RIG) agrees to buy out the shares of Transocean Partners (NYSE:RIGP) that it doesn't own in a stock swap valued at $514M.
    • The company will exchange 1.1427 of its shares for each unit of the MLP.
    • RIGP +9.43% premarket to $11.95.

    Hurricane drought streak set in Gulf of Mexico

    • The Gulf of Mexico has now seen its longest streak in at least 130 years of no hurricane activity.
    • The last major storm in the Gulf was Hurricane Ingrid in 2013.
    • Over the weekend, the National Hurricane Center downgraded the odds that two active storms in the Atlantic could develop into a Gulf threat.

    SolarCity lowers guidance for megawatts installed

    • A range of sales process improvements and the introduction of a new loan offering began to help improve bookings in Q2, but residential bookings in the first half of the year were lower than anticipated.
    • As a result, the company is lowering its 2016 guidance for MW Installed to 900-1,000 MW (from 1,000-1,100 MW) and will be adjusting its fully loaded cost structure accordingly.
    • SCTY -4.9% premarket

    DryShips announces reverse stock split

    • DryShips (DRYS +14.6%) announced it has received written notification from the Nasdaq Stock Market  indicating that it's out of compliance with listing requirements.
    • The closing bid price of the company's common stock for 30 consecutive business days was below the minimum $1.00 per share bid price requirement for continued listing on the Nasdaq Capital Market.
    • DryShips says it will effect a 4-for-1 reverse stock split in order to regain compliance with the minimum bid price requirement.
    • The company notes that its business operations are not affected by the receipt of the notification.
    • Source: Press Release

    AutoNation lower after BAML turns cautious

    • AutoNation (NYSE:AN) slips after Bank of America Merrill Lynch scratches the auto retailer off its US 1 List.
    • The investment firm took another look at AutoNation after factoring in last week's gloomy outlook from Ford on the industry.
    • Previously: AutoNation beats by $0.03, misses on revenue (July 29)

    Those expectations must have been really low!  Macau revenue tops expectations

    • Gambling revenue in Macau fell 4.5% to 17.77B pacatas ($2.2B) in July.
    • The rate of decline was an improvement from the 8.5% tail-off in June and topped estimates by a full percentage point.
    • The Macau sector is expected to generate a positive month of growth in September.
    • Report from the Macau Gaming and Inspection Coordination Bureau.

    Twitter will live-stream tonight's 'Suicide Squad' premiere in New York

    • In partnership with Warner Bros. and BuzzFeed.
    • Exclusive interviews and commentary featured in an effort to "combine live video and conversation together on one surface."
    • Twitter (TWTR +0.7%) VP of Global Media Ross Hoffman on the deal: "People come to Twitter to see what's happening, many to see what's happening in entertainment. They talk about movies every single day: before, during and after the movies are released. With this partnership, we're bringing live video entertainment to meet this growing demand."
    • This news comes amid other live-streaming partnerships with ELEAGUEMLB Advanced Media, the NBAPac-12 Networks and CBS News.
    • Suicide Squad Red Carpet Premiere streams live this evening at 6pm ET.

  16. Bought some WLL at $6.54.  Looking for a scalp.

    Phil, your mom looked like Shirley Temple in the 1944 photo.  Nice looking family.


  17. Mom / Phil,

    Your mom doesn't look 72+….   Looks much younger…. 


  18. WLL/Albo – Going to be a rough fall for that sector.  And thanks.

    72/GC – Yeah, I hope I hold up that well.  Actually my Dad's side of the family is full of ancient ones, so I have a good shot.  I have to avoid clubs in Florida because my Mom is now "out there":


  19. WASHINGTON — In a remarkable and lengthy rebuke of his party’s nominee, Senator John McCain sharply criticized Donald J. Trump’s comments about the family of the fallen Muslim Army captain, saying, “While our party has bestowed upon him the nomination, it is not accompanied by unfettered license to …


  20. At the waste collection center in Kamikatsu, Japan, there are separate bins for different types of paper products: Newspapers, magazines, cartons, flyers. Then there are separate ones for cans: Aluminum, spray, steel. There are even individual bins for plastic bottles and caps. But that’s only a …


  21. Donald J. Trump reeled on Sunday amid a sustained campaign of criticism by the parents of a Muslim American soldier killed by a suicide bomber in Iraq and a rising outcry within his own party over his rough and ethnically charged dismissal of the couple.<p>The confrontation between the parents, Khizr …


  22. I discussed in Prime Meridians this past weekend a $1.4 billion lawsuit brought against Venezuela state energy firm PDVSA. With the major this week filing a motion to quash the suit, which claims it illegally transferred billions out of the U.S. in order to duck a settlement.<p>And news this week …


  23. Are we getting back to these lines:

    Lines – 18,450, 2,175, 4,725 , 1,225 and 16,660 are the lines I'd use for now and watch the Dollar (95.63) not to go below $95.50


  24. Man, it's hard to be a short in this market!


  25. Despite burning through $1 billion a year in China, Uber couldn’t make big market share gains.<p>Uber gave up.<p>It may never frame its time in China in such stark terms, but there’s no other way to interpret Uber’s merger of its China division with market leader Didi Chuxing in a tie-up worth $35 …


  26. <b>”Policymakers have chosen to ignore the central issue of debt as they try to resuscitate activity,”</b> warns Satyajit Das in a shocking Op-Ed in today’s …


  27. Just over two months ago, Apple made a $1 billion bet on Didi, the dominant ride-sharing company in China. Today (Aug. 1), that move has made Apple a part-owner of Uber, thanks to a $1 billion investment by Didi into Uber. All of a sudden, Apple has found itself with stakes in two of the world’s …


  28. Investors have turned against the three of the largest U.S. crops, betting that timely rainfall will further swell grain supplies and exacerbate …


  29. Construction is a costly and time-consuming process. There are several layers to every project, and average profit margins are relatively narrow. …


  30. In a sign that suggests investors don’t trust the rally that’s propelled the stock market to all-time highs, cash is still being yanked out of mutual funds that invest in U.S. shares at a steady clip.<p>Blame it on fear of stocks at record levels. Or lousy fund performance. Or “Brexit’ fallout. Or the …


  31. by williambanzai7 – Jul 31, 2016 12:53 PM<p>White power…<p>Everything you know about Russia is wrong. Unwire your brain – it won’t hurt!<p>Why what we’re …


  32. The Great FinTech Robo Advisor Race

    Perhaps no other sub sector of the fintech arena has received as much institutional and retail interest as the robo advisors. The business of financial planning and personal investment affects large pools of capital and large investor segments. Innovation in the investment technology space is …


  33. Britain’s financial status could be downgraded this week amid reports the Bank of England will cut interest rates on Thursday. The Guardian says that the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will examine the latest growth forecasts and inflation report, and then make a decision on whether to cut …


  34. Britain’s manufacturing sector shrank at the steepest pace for more than three years in the wake of the vote to leave the EU, forcing factories to cut jobs as they grappled with higher costs and lower demand.<p>News that the decline in manufacturing activity in July was steeper than first thought …


  35. <b>Time For Bold Economic Moves And Tough Security In Nigeria</b><p><b>As Nigeria’s economy is contracting, domestic and global headwinds ensure that downside</b> …


  36. LONDON (Reuters) – The latest health check of leading European Union banks failed to end worries about profitability in the sector and the omission of risks such as the effect of negative interest rates and Brexit blunted its impact.<p>The European Banking Authority (EBA) published the outcome of its …


  37. Most graduates will not earn enough to cover the cost of their degrees, according to a damning report on the cost of higher eductaion.<p>The research found that only those who had studied at elite universities such as Oxford and Cambridge, or who took courses in high-earning professions such as …


  38. Hello All – So many headwinds all over the world but we just keep coasting along without a care in the world.  Interesting times we live in.


  39. The Austrian Mint has just published its annual report for 2015. The Mint sold 41 tonnes of gold coins and bars, with its flagship Vienna …


  40. By Brian Kelly – - Market Sentiment on <b>August 1, 2016 10:45 AM</b> Follow-Ups<p>The UK economy was not strong before the Brexit vote and the July PMI report …


  41. A lack of a strong vocabulary — as well as virulent racism — seems to run in the Trump family.<p>This article originally appeared on .<p>Donald Trump was out of the spotlight for a while last week, and that was very hard to abide. When people did talk about him, they were mostly saying not nice things. …


  42. Investors are underestimating how many times the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates this year and next, but they are probably right about …


  43. 4 mega-trends that could change the world by 2030

    In 2012, the US government put on its futurist hat and published a report entitled “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.”<p>It’s a surprisingly lucid text, full of both grim predictions and hopeful insights about the world that humans will inhabit within the next two decades.<p>One section deals with …


  44. By ADAM PEARCE and ALICIA PARLAPIANO<p>Photograph by Travis Dove for The New York Times<p>false<p>Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (population estimates); Federal Election Commission (2012 general election turnout); Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections (2016 primary turnout and candidate vote …


  45. Just caught a rumor that BMY might be interested in acquiring GILD.


  46. albo/gild  source?


  47. (John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)<p>* Chart 1: tmsnrt.rs/2aFLmvQ<p>* Chart 2: tmsnrt.rs/2aFLknI<p>* Chart 3: tmsnrt.rs/2aFL5ZH<p>By John Kemp<p>LONDON, Aug 1 Hedge funds have turned very bearish towards both crude and refined products over the last two months amid signs of …


  48. Ricky Dillon is 24, but his spiked bleach-blond hair and multicolored metallic nail polish that shines on his right fingers make him look younger. He …


  49. Americans are savings a lot of money on gas, and it looks like they are getting out there and spending that cash.<p>According to Paul Trussell at Deutsche Bank, gas prices have sunk 19.2% in the past twelves months. Even recently, oil has dived back into a bear market, indicating more cheap gas to …


  50. Yves here. This is an important and accessible post on another bad Eurozone idea that might be implemented, that of a scheme for the orderly …


  51. WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. construction spending fell for a third straight month in June as outlays dropped across the board, suggesting a downward revision to the second-quarter economic growth estimate published last week.<p>Construction spending declined 0.6 percent to its lowest level since June …


  52. The Chinese car-hailing giant Didi Chuxing is buying Uber China in a $35 billion deal, and for investors that means a big sigh of relief.<p>The two companies had been rivals in China, with Uber consistently lagging behind Didi in the region.<p>Private-equity investors in particular had reportedly been …


  53. mkt/VIX  I am down 16% on my VXX but shall remain long VIX.  Why? Because I believe two things will occur: First, obviously, VIX will spike.  More importantly though, I think backwardation will occur in VIX futures when the shit starts hitting the fan.  Just like 2007, the market will make new highs until the sum of the data out there, mostly bad, starts taking front and center.  The wildcard, as it has been for a long time, is monetary easing.  Don;t fool yourself that the CBs will stop because they should – they won't until they are forced too.  Could take months but it will occur.


  54. Hanj – It was mentioned on Briefing Trader.

    "~~GILD  -  Gilead Sciences: Shares have worked its way off the lows and extending to session highs; Hearing renewed BMY/GILD chatter making the rounds."


  55. While most advanced economies struggle to lift inflation, none would want Venezuela’s situation: Consumer-price inflation is forecast to hit 480% this year and top 1,640% in 2017, according to the International Monetary Fund.<p>A shortage of medical supplies means infants and other sick patients are …


  56. Few things are as universally beloved as getting something for nothing. Everyone supports free samples at the grocery store, soda refills, and, …


  57. Oliver on Khzir Khan, “human sweater-vest” Tim Kaine, and micromanager-in-chief Hillary Clinton<p>“Last Week Tonight” host John Oliver on Sunday devoted his main segment to last week’s Democratic National Convention.<p>President Obama spoke on the fourth night of convention proceedings, telling the …


  58. Foreign trade took a beating at both major party conventions, with speakers blaming free-trade agreements for all but wiping out U.S. manufacturing and eliminating millions of middle-class jobs. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have promised to renegotiate or abandon trade agreements with key …


  59. CAIRO (Reuters) – Islamic State called on its group members to carry out jihad in Russia in a nine-minute YouTube video on Sunday.<p>”Listen Putin, we will come to Russia and will kill you at your homes … Oh Brothers, carry out jihad and kill and fight them,” a masked man driving a car in the desert …


  60. A big component of the run-up in the stock market might be slowing down.<p>Years of low interest rates in the post-financial crisis era have encouraged …


  61. Aloha All, 

    Phil, have to respond with a slightly different viewpoint for you/the pope on Islam. It's not the 3M American followers which are the issue, the issue is the religion has been hijacked by Wahhabism and Saudi Arabia. It's like if the Westbrook baptist church was controlling policy and fervently followed by 44% of the world's Christians. Now we just have terrorist attacks killing small groups of random people, what happens when a subscriber to this radical ideology becomes the leader of France? Britain? Or Russia!? Chechens are the only group with a positive birth rate in the country. This is a very real issue and it pains me my only liberal brother who sees this is Bill Mahrer.


  62. Hanj / CB's

    Who's going to make them stop and why? 


  63. Action Park:

    The looping water slide proved some tough laws of physics for some:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Action_Park


  64. enfilade/who and why  Thats' the unknown.  But here is how I look at it – the underlying fundamentals ALWAYS direct the course of the market – knowing when is impossible.  But it will happen.  Recall at each of the last market highs, pre collpase, the market was saying all clear when the fundamentals were all flashing warning signs.  Anyone who gets in here to chase further highs is supremely stupid – the odds overwhelmingly are against meaningful highs.  Volume is telling us that right now.  The sideways action is also telling us this.  No matter though, because I do have some select longs but when it happens, and it will, investors will be shocked.  I am concerned that GS came out over the weekend bearish.  That's usually not a good thing.  But, I am biased against them so i have to temper that opionion.  I am a long term bull, always have been – so to take this position is something out of the ordinary for me – but I have to look at the sum of the data.


  65. Free college.  Sure.  I attended Big State U for 1 year each of undergrad and grad and it was $1000 a year in tuition.  Fair enough. Free or a $1000 seems fine. I could pay for everything (housing food car and tuition) working 2 days a week. Not living like Trump or anything but it all seemed fine to me.

    But 30 years of Reagan-ism means state support for Universities has been whittled down to under 20% of budget in most states. And so many rely on football and basketball, making those programs susceptible to shenanigans. And then pumping "research" for big pharma…

    Oh and meanwhile, elite Universities like Yale build up enormous tax free endowments. Prof. Richard Wolff notes that Harvard and Yale were called 'non-profits' because before the Am Revolution they were state supported schools to educate clergy.  And so the tax exemption is just relic (at best, a violation of the First Amendment, at worst).  http://www.rdwolff.com/eu_efficiency_capitalist_vs_human

    But because these places don't pay taxes, homeowners in their home towns (or "hosts" as biologists call the homes of parasites) are often paying twice as much as those in adjacent communities.


  66. Hanj / CB's

    Thanks for your take. I think it's going to be very difficult for the politicians to stop the CB's unless they can directly blame them and still come out smelling like roses. A tough ask for an establishment political  party (I'm thinking globally) who could have acted earlier to attempt to stimulate growth with fiscal spending. I think it would take a new government or political movement who doesn't have responsibility for the status quo. Furthermore, governments are benefiting from the low rates so they wont want to rock the boat and have the market move rates higher. Perhaps CB's will have to stop themselves out of self preservation (that if they don't blame the politicians they will be dissolved when the pitch forks eventually come out.) and that's likely well into the future. I don't know??


  67. Lines/Rayne – Not 18,450 but 2,175 was close and /TF once again rejected around 1,222 and we're still waiting for /NQ to cross back below 4,750.  Of course it's Monday – so all of this is BS anyway.   

    Oil is slamming down to $40 and I don't know why the Dow isn't following yet but I'm back short below that 18,400 mark. 

    Coasting/AJ – That's what Thelma said to Louise…  

    GILD/Albo – Well it popped GILD 2% but $108Bn at $81 and BMY is only $126Bn so would be a very, very big pill to swallow – can't see how they could offer enough of a premium to pull it off.  Even $90 would be $120Bn so technically "overpaying" by $12Bn is no small number for BMY.

    VIX/Hanj – Well you can see why I never touch the things.  

    VIX WEEKLY

    Islam/Jrom – I think the issue is that we have to attack the socio-economic roots that are causing the surge in radical Islam and also reach out to the broader Global Muslim community and engage them in diffusing the situation on the ground.  That will take a lot of long-term cooperation but it's a much smarter way to go than drone-striking random civilians and then expecting the survivors to love America.  

    Action Park/Randers – That slide never really worked but kudos to them for experimenting.  I like these too:

    The sleds were a large factor in the injuries. A stick that was supposed to control speed led, in practice, to just two options on the infrequently maintained vehicles: extremely slow, and a speed described by one former employee as "death awaits".[4]

     

    • Super Go KartsThe karts were meant to be driven around a small loop track at a speed of about 20 mph (32 km/h) set by the governor devices on them. However, park employees knew how to circumvent the governors by wedging tennis balls into them, and they were known to do so for parkgoers. As a result, an otherwise standard small-engine car ride became a chance to play bumper cars at 50 mph (80 km/h), and many injuries resulted from head-on collisions.[4] Also, the engines were poorly maintained, and some riders were overcome by gasoline fumes as they drove.[4]
    • Battle Action Tanks: This was one of the most popular rides at Motorworld, and it was featured prominently in the television ads. In a chainlink fence-enclosed area, small tanks could be driven around, for a fee, for five minutes at a time, with tennis ball cannons that enabled riders to shoot at a sensor prominently mounted on each tank. If hit, the tank stopped operating for 15 seconds, while other tankers often took advantage of the delay to pepper the stricken vehicle with more fire. Visitors on the outside could also join in the fun through less costly cannons mounted on the inside of the fence. When workers had to enter the cage to attend to a stuck or crashed tank, which usually happened several times a day, they were often pelted with tennis balls from every direction despite prohibitions against such behavior that could result in expulsion from the park. This gave the tank ride a reputation for being more dangerous for the employees than the patrons,[4] making it the least popular place to work in the park. 
    • Roaring Rapids: This was a standard raft-based whitewater ride. Reports that the park filed with the state in 1984 noted fractured femurscollar bones and noses, and dislocated knees and shoulders. This attraction is still open. The left side is known as The Gauley and riders use a single tube. The right side is known as Thunder Run and is a double tube rafting ride.
    • Surf Hill: This ride, common to other water parks at the time, allowed patrons to slide down a water-slick sloped surface on mats into small puddles, until they reached a foam barrier after an upslope at the end. Barriers between lanes were minimal, and people frequently collided with each other on the way down, or at the end. The seventh lane was known as the "back breaker", due to its special kicker two-thirds of the way down intended to allow jumps and splashdowns into a larger puddle.[4] Employees at the park used to like eating at a nearby snack bar with a good view of the attraction, since it was almost guaranteed that they could see some serious injuries, lost bikini tops, or both.[4] Mountain Creek kept this attraction open through 2005, then reopened it in 2012.
    • Diving cliffs: The area around Roaring Rapids was (and still is) laid out like a kind of grotto, with many lower-intensity attractions. One was a pair of diving cliffs—one 23 feet (7 m), the other 18 feet (5.4 m)—above a 16-foot (5 m) deep pool. Former employee Tom Fergus says the bottom of the pool was eventually painted white to make it easier to spot any bodies on the bottom. 
    • The Main Fork: Riders would ride under a drenching waterfall into a dark tunnel with many twists, turns, and jagged rocks. Upon exiting the tunnel, riders would twist and turn some more until they reached a small rock pool, and slowly floated out. The final stretch of the river consisted of a large downhill portion complete with bumps, and a foot-high (30 cm) jump where the rafts would momentarily catch air and then slam back onto the surface.

    I'm telling you, this place is GREAT!!!  

    Wheeeeee!  Down we go again.   Who says you can't make money on the bear side?  

    Pretty much downhill since the EU close.  

    College/Rexx – Good summary of the issues.  


  68. Phil

    Were you going to have a (new ) trade on TWTR

    Thanks


  69. Done with Dow shorts at 18,300 – +$3,000 is the magic number for me, if I can do that every day, I'm happy.   /TF stop at 1,215, /NQ 4,240, ES 2,165 of course. 

    TWTR/QC – We have TWTR in the LTP with a 2018 $13/20 bull call spread – not going to change that but it's good for a new entry at net $3 and you can sell the $13 puts for $1.85 to offset and net $1.15 on the $7 spread that's $3.80 in the money.  


  70. Money managers have never been more certain that oil prices will drop.<p>They increased bets on falling crude by the most ever as stockpiles climbed to …


  71. <i>This is a syndicated repost courtesy of oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith. To view original, click here.</i> Reposted with permission.<p>Share!<p><i>Our real-world</i> …


  72. Below is a look at the performance of various asset classes using key ETFs traded on US exchanges. For each ETF, we show its performance last week, …


  73. July was the worst month for crude oil in a year.<p>The usual seasonal boost in demand that could be helping prices is lackluster right now, wrote Barclays’ Michael Cohen and his team in a note on Monday. This postpones any chances for the market to balance out, he said.<p>Summer is usually the best …


  74. Upside surprises in sales. A dearth of dim words about the future. A pick-up in profit margins.<p>Those three factors, according to a Morgan Stanley …


  75. Whether you’re a Twitter pro or a complete novice, odds are the best way to get the most out of Twitter is to avoid it as much as possible. Delete the app off your phone. Stay away from its website and desktop client apps. Just log out.<p>Understanding why this is the case illustrates Twitter Inc.’s …


  76. Apple might not be growing anymore, but it still sells a lot of iPhones, and makes a lot of money. It’s hard to comprehend the $7.8 billion in profit that Apple made last quarter.<p>Programmer Neal Argawal has put together an addictive web app showing just how big Apple is — and how much money it …


  77. Phil, do you see oil bottoming here, or does it have further to go? Thanks 


  78. Oil/Streth – Too many negative articles today but hopefully it's forcing a bottom but, as I said earlier, there's no upside catalysts to be bullish about – this is just a technical bounce off $40, which completes a 20% move down from $50 so we're looking at $38 as an overshoot and $42 as a weak bounce and $44 strong bounce so that should be the range for the week unless something odd happens (and it often does).  

    Also, $38 on /CL is $40 on /BZ so that's certainly the place I'd want to put a long bet for a bounce.  


  79. Phil

    Any follow Up?

    Thanks

    Butterfly/QC – I'd wait at least until I'm back in a week so we can see some earnings.


  80. AGIO – trying to buy the Feb17 45/55 BCS for 4.70 or less.  I put a probe order in to see how they are playing, as the spreads are wide.  So I think one can do better than 4.70.  Just a few to see how their data comes out in a few months.


  81. Phil, do you still like NRF?  There seemed to be a lot of financial engineering going on with them and I didn't pull the trigger when you first recommended them.  Earnings are coming up and there is a lot of premium in the 2018s.


  82. INFN / Pharm,

    If I recall, you did like them.  What price point would you start accumulating?  TIA.


  83. INFN .. think I got you confused with Phil.  Disregard.  Phil .. what's your take?  From what I've read, it seems the spending on big optical has happened and were heading into a soft part of the cycle.  Sure it will pick up again as we suck up any new bandwidth.


  84. Butterfly/QC – Was that about adding new positions?  Well, I did say "at least so", since it looks like we're breaking down – I'd say today still too soon.

    NRF/Jet – Well, we did buy them in the LTP at $15.50 and we sold the $15 calls and $13 puts for a whopping $6.70 to net $8.80/11.90 so I'm certainly not worried at $11.69 and we've collected 0.80 in dividends so far and another 0.40 in Aug is coming.  At the moment though, they are doing this crazy merger with two other funds so I'd wait to see what happens before going in from scratch, but that's not until next year.  That's why the option prices are so good.  

    INFN/Jeddah – That's right, we wanted to sell 30 of the 2018 INFN $8 puts for $1.75 ($5,250) in the LTP.  

    We talked about this last week, they are a cyclical business in a down cycle so let the short-term traders sell you their shares.  Patient investors make most of their money from trades like this.  


  85. We were talking about good Fundamental sites on the weekend and this is why I like Trefis:

    Key Takeaways From UPS' Earnings

    How Have Transvaginal Mesh Lawsuits Impacted Boston Scientific's Q2'16 Earnings?

    Procter & Gamble Q2 Earnings Preview: Tough Competition and Weak Macros to Pose Difficulties

    Nice no-BS analysis highlighting just the things that actually matter.  


  86. /TF Starting to get interesting at 1220?


  87. Pharm

    Any thoughts on CORT

    Concept Therapeutics Incorporated

    Thanks


  88. Pharm,

    as well CELG your thoughts TKS


  89. /TF/Rayne – Sorry, did you mean long or short?  I don't like to play the range that tightly.  Even using a very short-term range, I want to see it near the top of the bottom to consider a play.

    1,224 to 1,212 is 12 so by the time you get back to 1,220, you it's past the strong bounce (1,217) and you should be more bullish – if anything but, by then, you'd want to be referring to a longer-term chart than 5 mins.

    S&P hits fresh all-time high

    • After struggling for gains earlier in the session, the S&P 500 has just ticked above the 2,177.09 level, hitting a record intraday high.
    • "I think the economic news [manufacturing data] was spot on. There's a little disappointment in construction spending, but it's tough for that kind of month-to-month data, since it factors in weather" and other elements, said Kim Forrest, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital.
    • The Dow Jones is 30 points higher, with Apple and Goldman Sachs contributing gains, while the Nasdaq is up by 0.7%, as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB+2.5%) trades near its highest level in more than six months.

    Amazon overthrows Exxon Mobil to become world's fourth-largest public company

    • Amazon's (AMZN +1.3%) market capitalization is currently around $366B while Exxon Mobil's (XOM) has fallen to $354B.
    • Amazon has recently unseated Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.BBRK.A) for the fifth spot but its shares continue to climb since posting impressive Q2 results and is firmly making its way up the list.
    • Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGGOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) currently represent the top three with $567B, $564B and $445B market capitalizations, respectively.

    Interactive Brokers reports brokerage metrics for July

    • IBKR Daily Average Revenue Trades 602K (-6% M/M ).
    • Clients at the end of the month: 360K (+1% M/M).
    • Client equity as on 31st Jul 2016: $76.5B (+4% M/M).
    • 390 annualized average cleared DARTS per client account.
    • Avg. commission per cleared client order of $4.03 incl. exchange, clearing and regulatory fees. Avg. commission of $2.25 per stock client order. Avg. commission of $6.05 per equity option client order. Avg. commission of $6.64 per futures client order.
    • Press Release

    Pilots make some noise at Southwest Airlines

    • An union repping pilots at Southwest Airlines (LUV -0.5%issues a sharp rebuke of management for its "misguided focus" on cost control.
    • The group went as far as asking CEO Gary Kelly and COO Mike Van de Ven to step down from their positions.
    • "Senior executives at Southwest Airlines have prioritized short-term stock performance at the expense of long-term investment in people and infrastructure, resulting in the highest level of labor strife and dissatisfaction among frontline employees in the history of Southwest Airlines," reads a statement from the Southwest Airlines Pilots' Association.

    Embraer sinks after RBC lowers target

    • RBC has lowered its price target on Embraer (NYSE:ERJ), pushing down shares more than 4%.
    • RBC Analysts Derek Spronck and Walter Spracklin write: "It was a 'kitchen sink' quarter for Embraer, in which Q2 results came in below, 2016 guidance was reduced, and a $200 MM loss contingency was recorded. Expectations are now re-based, and while we believe the ERJ shares could move higher from here, the lack of visibility of end-market demand in aero and still challenging domestic environment keeps us on the sidelines for now.
    • Our 2017 EBITDA now sits at $946M (from $960M). We are also taking up the risk discount we apply to the peer multiple on the aerospace division to 40% (from 30%), due to the lack of visibility and still challenging conditions in both commercial and executive aviation. This takes our price target to $24 (from $28).

    McDonald's to go more natural with buns and Chicken McNuggets

    • McDonald's (MCD +0.1%) says it will swap out high-fructose corn syrup in favor of sugar in sandwich buns.
    • The action falls in line with a broad menu simplification plan by the company.
    • New version of Chicken McNuggets and some breakfast items with no artificial preservatives are also set to be unveiled.

    Anheuser-Busch InBev and SABMiller set dates for merger

    • Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD -3.1%) and SABMiller (OTCPK:SBMRY) plan to close their merger deal on October 10 after shareholders meet to vote on the combination on September 28.
    • A combined listing for the beer behemoth in Brussels is slated for October 11.
    • ABInBev press release (.pdf)

    Pfizer digs deeper into gene therapy

    • Pfizer (PFE +1.2%) has acquired Bamboo Therapeutics, a privately held biotech company focused on developing gene therapies for the potential treatment of patients with certain rare neuromuscular and nervous system diseases.
    • The acquisition significantly expands Pfizer's expertise in gene therapy by providing it with a clinical and several pre-clinical assets that complement the company's rare disease portfolio.

    Zika outbreak in Florida grows

    • Florida announces that ten more people were infected in an area north of Miami through contact with local mosquitoes. The total number of cases is now up to 14.
    • A travel notice has been posted for the region.

    Verizon's $2.4B Fleetmatics deal at 'healthy' multiple

    • Verizon's (VZ -0.8%$2.4B deal for Fleetmatics (FLTX +38.7%didn't come as a surprise to Citigroup analyst Kenneth Wong, who noted an "aggressive pace" of consolidation in the sector.
    • Verizon had announced a deal in June to buy fleet-management software maker Telogis as well. The Fleetmatics deal is in line with recent transaction multiples of 6 to 9 time recurring revenue, Wong says.
    • “There has been significant consolidation across the fleet management space from across the auto ecosystem (OEMs, telco, pure play FMS vendors (FLTX mainly), fuel card providers, etc.) so we believe the bidding process was competitive," he writes.
    • RBC's Matthew Hedberg calls it a "healthy multiple," saying the deal reflects "6.1x FTM EV/S vs. 5.1x for software acquisitions."
    • Despite today's jump, Fleetmatics at $59.60 isn't quite that stock's 52-week high: It hit $62.86 in December and had fallen 31.7% since then.

    Google gears up for the 2016 Summer Olympics

    • Google (GOOGGOOGLannounces enhanced features on its platform for the upcoming 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro.
    • Event schedule, medal count and athlete information discovery, easily viewable results and TV schedules, official broadcast event highlights on YouTube, exploration of Rio de Janeiro via Google Maps and latest Trends highlighted.
    • In preparing for what is sure to be tremendous traffic resulting from the Rio 16 games, Google is aiming to serve as an extensive guide to the event.
    • Check out some of the Search and Maps features already live.

  90. TY.  I was thinking short.


  91. Phil any thoughts on GOOGL?


  92. LUV/Phil – jibes with what I see on the ground. Used to be cheap, easy way to fly out of Burbank and go wherever, but they've cut services too much. Alaska is now the better option for a west coast bus.


  93. Anyone playing any earnings today?


  94. XON/Phil

    I have the Oct 19/26 BCS and the Oct 30 call short which is up almost $2000 today. Could you advise on rolling this option?


  95. 6 minutes ago

    SJB finally moving a bit (we have 20 Oct $26 calls in the OOP):

    Gallup: this GOP convention is first *ever* where more say they are now less likely to vote for the party's nominee.

    Saudi Arabia is believed to have offered banks $4 billion in loans

    New York approves subsidies worth about $500 million a year for its money-losing nuclear reactors

    The chance of an entrepreneur's 1st or 2nd startup ending in success is 20%

    The rise of driverless cars and car-sharing could add $100 billion to the booze market

    Despite an expansion in long-term funding support (from governments, international agencies, sovereign wealth funds, and private investment), the overall energy infrastructure needs have increased to $53 trillion by 2035.  The base figure suggested by the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) when I first made my estimates 17 months ago was $48 trillion: roughly $40 trillion for the infrastructure itself, the remainder to address improvements in energy efficiency.  That was without attention to environmental concerns. Including an attempt to reach the EU’s so-called 2ºC Climate Change target would add at least $5 trillion to $7 trillion to the total.

    China Debt Situation Gets Worse And Other EMs Start To Struggle

    Reminder: You may not use iTunes to make a nuclear weapon http://www.apple.com/legal/internet

    ago

    WTI closes in bear market


  96. 6 minutes ago

    WTI closes in bear market

     

     

  97. Comment content omitted because it is too long.


  98. Strange, there's a couple of charts and text I can't post.

    /TF/Rayne – As I was saying earlier this morning – it's not enough just to hit a level, you have to have a REASON to go long or short at that point in the day otherwise you're just playing roulette with random numbers.

    GOOGL/Abseth – Yes, I called a short at $800 but the options are too expensive so far so just the stock.

    LUV/Snow – This is always the case with airlines, they just can't stick with a winning formula because they are always trying to shave an extra Dollar off each passenger and they keep going until they hit the breaking point and lose too many customers to be profitable.  You can recover from that if you are a fast food agency but there aren't actually that many regular fliers and once you chase them away, they are very hard to get back.  

    AAPL $106! 

    Earnings/Abseth – Too many cross-currents this week (see chart in the post) — better to play when most of a sector has reported and you can look at the stragglers individually.  

    XON/Zten – It's on target, why would you touch it?  It would have been nice if you had sold a put too and I don't understand why you double sold the calls but I wouldn't run to change it based on one day.  Essentially, you'd have to bite the bullet and construct a long play on XON if they blast through $30 but, for now, it's all premium that will evaporate.  Of course, if you are worried you could get in over your head - take $2,000 and run!  




  99. So those were the charts and here is the text that caused the overflow (no idea why):

    The next decade will be the worst economically yet for the US… with the most minimal working age population growth (slowest population increases feeding through in the least increases in demand), interest rates already zeroed out, massive over-indebtedness, overcapacities, and the fastest growth in 65+ demands for unfunded obligations.  Not to mention 65+yr/olds are effectively sellers of all things including their pensions, their 401k's, their downsizing homes, etc. etc.  Nearly all the cards have been played…just as the situation gets serious.

    Unfortunately (fortunately?) for the US, the advanced and developing world are much worse off (below).  The peak growth in the combined working age population (15-64yr/olds) among OECD, China, Brazil, and Russia has collapsed.  Declining buyers vs. surging sellers among these nations are plain to see.  These nations make up almost 3/4's of all global demand.  Their combined working age populations will shrink every year from here on (surely for decades and perhaps far longer).  Global demand for nearly everything is set to suffer as over the next 8yrs, the 0-64yr/old combined population will fall over <-6m> while over the same period, the 65+yr/old population of these nations will grow by +105 million.  An "old-people-pocalypse" is about to swamp us.


  100. Charts / Phil – That's the thing that most people forget about places like China and Russia for example. They are demographics time bombs! Their population will be older on average than the US population by 2050 because of immigration (sorry Donald)! The saying is that China will get older before it gets richer which will create tremendous pressure on the system. Brazil is different, but they have other challenges.


  101. Thanks phil, SJB looks very interesting on the daily charts. 


  102. Phil – I'm thinking that Oil will have an uptick into the upcoming Labor Day Holiday.   USO sitting at 40 is getting tempting to go long.  Do you see a good BCS or put playing the anticipated Labor Day  weekend price increase, and at what price would you enter this?

    Thanks. 


  103. Phil - I can't believe that's considered art.  The Top 0.01% really do have way too much money – if the Government doesn't take it from them, they'll only waste it on stupid crap like that!  

    I concur. The high end art, auto and collectibles market is getting hammered, down 40%+ this year alone. Christie's and Sotheby's are on the ropes, as in desperate and ready for BK.  The snobs see the tide pulling out, and fast.

    My friend Martin at Macronomics has a missive on the noise of art.  The credit market is one of the places where the rubber meets the road, and he gets it. Out.


  104. jromeha -  It's like if the Westbrook baptist church was controlling policy and fervently followed by 44% of the world's Christians.

    Cogent.


  105. jromeha –  It's like if the Westbrook baptist church was controlling policy and fervently followed by 44% of the world's Christians.

    Cogent. As in… imagine if you will, a world where deep state sponsored terrorism intentionally blurs the lines for many. The ubiquitous "they" know all too well that conscious ignorance knows no limits.  Out.


  106. BHI- Phil did you have any comment about the is trade after the earnings miss and what seems like an end to your breakup fee premise for this? Oil price decline seems to be the overriding premise here. Hanging on or bailing on this?


  107. Oops, Westboro – not sure why it autocorrected it. When I was an LT I had escort duty for author Thomas Barnett and he had many of the same ideas…. However, it's not economic conditions which are spreading backwards views on women, gays, etc, it's Saudi $s and their imams. Further, many terrorists are not poor. It's hard to comprehend how a large majority of people in Muslim majority countries can have such backwards views unless one actually spends some time in a Muslim majority country or two. Maybe I'm a little jaded after reading daily reports of little girls having acid thrown on their face Bc they were attending school, or a 12 year old beheaded by her 38 y/o neighbor and his friend Bc her parents had turned down his marriage proposal. Daily reports not deemed interesting enough by western media – majority of  Americans more concerned about who kardashians are dating. However, I don't have to be jaded to objectively look at how poorly women are treated in Muslim majority countries outside the indo-pacific region. Again, it's not socio-economic conditions, it's backwards beliefs. What happens when the 74% military aged men "refugees" mamma Merkel decided to let invade Europe? You get the increase in terrorism, sexual assaults, etc. and yes, I'm aware the Tunisian man who Killed 90 And the German-Iranian shooter were citizens. Finally, We don't indiscriminately bomb civilians from UAVs (not drones). The targeting process is extensive.The amount of research and effort on each individual target is massive. It wasn't always this way, the change came about after we mistakenly shot a missile into the Chinese embassy in the 1990s. Do mistakes happen? Yes. But 99.9% of the time they are NOT random civilians. 

     

     


  108. Time bombs/StJ – Yes, very scary as we're the age that will have to see all these systems fall apart as we age into them.  

    Oil/Batman – Well, you have to watch the NYMEX barrel counts – way too many in the wrong part of the cycle to gamble long now, IMHO.  Labor Day is not the beginning of demand season, it's the end of it and July 4th was massively disappointing to bulls so you want to bet they forgot all about that and will buy oil up again, is that right?  Is there any fundamental reason AT ALL that you want to go long?  Anything other than the magical $40 mark that suckers always like to play (which we take advantage of)?  

    Art/Naybob – Well we're long BID, they'll survive.  They have for the past 300 years, I think they can make it through 2016.  Don't forget, when rich people need to raise cash, that art goes up for auction.  Sotheby's doesn't own the art, they just get a commission so the value of the individual pieces don't concern them – as long as there's overall volume to auction.  

    BHI/Craigs – They are well over our $45 target and the rig counts are growing, which is the underlying fundamental to their business and they do have $3.5Bn so I'm not sure what the problem is all of a sudden?  Oil going down in price should end by $35, maybe won't even get that low.  

    Radicals/Jromeha – So your contention is that it's a poisoned religion and a good majority of the 1Bn Muslims in the World are violent sociopaths or, at best, backwards hicks with values that are repulsive to us?  Let's say that's a correct premise.  What should we do?  It would seem we then have a moral obligation to wage a crusade and wipe them out, outlaw the religion and force them to modernize or lay down some international guidlines that say "believe what you want but these are women's rights, etc."  To some extent, I think half-assed versions of that are how we got here so either we go all the way and enforce non-sharia law – even in Muslim countries or we need to change our half-assed approach in some more realistic way.

    As to drones/UAVs – yes, I know we try really hard and do a really good job in general but we have killed hundreds, possibly thousands of civilians in several countries and that does make us look like evil bastards callously using technology to kill innocent people and I'm sure you can see how that just MIGHT lead more and more young people to hate America and want to do anything they can to end their reign of terror.  And, keep in mind, it's worse than Fox news out there with the endless propaganda.

    I'd be very much in favor of economic sanctions against any country that mistreats women and doesn't follow basic Geneva-standard rules of law but to do that we need NATO and the UN – not to turn our backs on them as Trump wants to do.  Bridges not walls are the answer.


  109. Morning!

    /dx under 95.50. I'm still flat. I want to believe in 100 just not sure

    /ym did well from 18350 to 18300 last night, flat now. 

    /tf touched the 1220 and nice ride down to 


  110. Good morning!  

    Once again Europe takes us down at the open, bad pattern emerging.  Banking stocks once again lead them lower and, so far, our banks are ignoring them.

    Renzi: Italian banks are good despite BMPS problems

    • Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (OTCPK:BMDPY) may have a strong future, according to Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, in spite of the stricken lender receiving the bottom score in a Europe-wide stress test.
    • "There are some problems, yes. If now, without non-performing loans, with a clear strategy, I think this bank could be a very good bank for the future," he told CNBC in Rome. "My view is that Italian banks are good."

    Dimon: Brexit could lead to breakdown of eurozone

    • The integrity of the eurozone is at risk once Britain leaves the European Union, Jamie Dimon told CNBC, calling the scenario a possible "fat tail outcome" of Brexit.
    • "It may take more than five years, but it may very well happen," he added.
    • What does that mean for JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)? "We have to be prepared for whatever the outcomes are… Whatever the laws of the land are we have to follow. That may require us to do things differently than we do today."

    Britain's May resurrects industrial policy

    • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will outline her bid to reshape the British economy for a post-Brexit world today, reviving the once unfashionable concept of industrial policy 30 years after Margaret Thatcher killed it off.
    • May's office said the strategy would focus on addressing long term industrial productivity growth, including encouraging innovation and focusing on sectors and technologies that give Britain a competitive advantage.

    Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse Kicked Out Of Stoxx Europe 50 Index

    We'll see if 2,160 holds, that's been good support:

    Dow Suffers Longest Losing Streak In A Year As Crude Crashes, Credit Craters

    RUT 1,213 is now becoming a floor, which is bullish, actually:

    But the Dollar is even lower today (95.35):

    Europe down 1.5% into lunch.

    Tuesday's economic calendar

    These telltale market indicators suggest stock prices are topping

    US private capex, inventories indicate American businesses lack confidence on economy. If investment is always an act of faith – because it's a leap into an unknowable future – than the numbers on U.S. capital spending in the first half of this year show worrying signs of declining business confidence. America's investment outlays over that period fell at an annual rate of 2.1 percent, marking a substantial decline from an already lackluster 3.2 percent pace of advance in the second half of last year. And there is worse. Taking a longer view of this bellwether segment of aggregate demand, which represents one-fifth of American GDP, one can see that the spending by U.S. companies on plant and equipment slowed to a growth rate of 0.6 percent in the year to June, compared with a 5.5 percent growth a year earlier.

    This Has Never Happened Outside Of A Recession

    A Trader's Angry Rant "Economic Numbers Don’t Mean Anything Anymore"

    Ben Inker: This Is The "Shocking Hole" That Will Be Blown In Equities If Rates Spike By 1.5%

    The bond market gives us a warning sign that would be dangerous to ignore

    The huge industry propping up the US economy just cracked

    Disappointing!  Japan approves massive stimulus package

    • Looking to jolt the nation back to life, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's cabinet has approved a ¥28T ($274B) stimulus package amid a growing consensus that monetary policy alone won't be able to revive the economy.
    • According to Dow Jones, the stimulus package ranks among Japan's biggest since the global financial crisis, and will: Lift GDP by 1.4%, include childcare benefits, provide $150 handouts to 22M low income people, loan ¥10.7T for infrastructure and provide ¥7.5T for direct fiscal spending.

    Typhoon Nida closes Hong Kong stock market

    • Typhoon Nida has swept through Hong Kong, shutting down its financial hub and disrupting hundreds of flights, but no major damage was reported as the storm moved onto the mainland.
    • Winds of up to 90 miles per hour were recorded in some parts of the city, according to the Hong Kong Observatory, which also warned of the potential risks of flooding.

    In China, Xi Jinping’s Crackdown Extends to Dissenting Versions of History. Challenge to celebrated war story is flashpoint in president’s push to promulgate an official narrative.

    Success In Curbing Chinese Capital Outflows Spells Disaster For High End NY/SF Real Estate

    RBA cuts cash rate to record low

    • The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate overnight by 25 basis points to a fresh record low of 1.50% amid signs of slowing economic growth and persistently low inflation.
    • "This is expected to remain the case for some time," the RBA said in a statement. The Aussie slumped after rate cut, while Australian equities remained in negative territory.

    It’s Called Financial Repression, and Governments Around the World Are Doing ItCountries are adopting policies to encourage or require savings to be lent cheaply to the government.

    Ringgit Sinks as Crude’s Tumble Bodes Ill for Malaysia Finances. The ringgit led a decline in Asian currencies as slumping oil prices dim the prospects for Malaysia’s export earnings. Brent crude sank 0.8 percent to close at its lowest level in four months on Monday, while U.S. oil slid into a bear market amid renewed concern there is a global supply glut. Malaysia loses 450 million ringgit ($111 million) in annual income for every $1 drop in oil and the nation derives about a fifth of its revenue from energy-related sources.

    Rio’s Olympics Woes Sour IOC on Developing World as Games SiteOfficials backing away from previous goal of opening up games to broader selection of cities?

    The Olympics aren't going to save Brazil

    The post-Olympics hangover is going to hit Brazil extremely hard

    New Zika cases prompt Miami travel warning

    • Federal health officials have advised pregnant women to avoid a Miami neighborhood – marking the first time the CDC has warned against travel to any area within the continental U.S. – as a Zika outbreak led to 10 more local cases.
    • Other troubling news… Director Tom Frieden said that extensive spraying of insecticides in the area over the past several weeks has not reduced the local population of mosquitoes capable of transmitting the virus.

    Overseas Yield Hunters Bag Record Share of U.S. Corporate Debt. Foreign buyers are poised to push their record 40 percent share of the U.S. corporate-bond market even higher as they seek to escape negative yields that have swept the globe. While Europe is the biggest overseas owner of the debt with 80 percent of the foreign holdings, investors from Asia were the fastest-growing buyers, according to Nathaniel Rosenbaum at Wells Fargo & Co. Taiwanese life insurers were among the hungriest buyers, buying up the notes to boost exposure to the market after Taiwanese regulatory changes that allowed an increase in allocations to overseas bonds.

    Interactive Brokers reports brokerage metrics for July

    • IBKR Daily Average Revenue Trades 602K (-6% M/M ).
    • Clients at teh end of the month: 360K (+1% M/M).
    • Client equity as on 31st Jul 2016: $76.5B (+4% M/M).
    • 390 annualized average cleared DARTS per client account.
    • Avg. commission per cleared client order of $4.03 incl. exchange, clearing and regulatory fees. Avg. commission of $2.25 per stock client order. Avg. commission of $6.05 per equity option client order. Avg. commission of $6.64 per futures client order.
    • Press Release

    Oil Retreats to Bear Market as Global Supply Glut Seen Growing. (video) Oil fell below $40 a barrel in New York for the first time since April, falling into a bear market on concern that the global supply glut will expand. Saudi Arabia cut prices to Asian customers as the country continues to fight for market share. Drillers in the U.S. boosted the number of rigs seeking oil for a fifth week, the longest run of gains since last August, according to data from Baker Hughes Inc. U.S. crude and gasoline supplies are at the highest seasonal level in at least two decades. West Texas Intermediate settled 22 percent below its June peak Monday, meeting the common definition of a bear market.

    Inventory overhang seen pressuring oil market further

    • The oil market is firmly in bear market territory after another weak trading session. In today's action, WTI futures dropped 3.7% to $40.06/bbl and brent crude fell 3.2% to $42.14/bbl.
    • Investment firms don't think the damage is over.
    • "This crude overhang is materializing just as a gasoline glut is pressuring refinery margins," warns Citigroup.
    • "We continue to be cautious for the rest of this year," reads a note from Société Générale.
    • Barclays is also blasting out caution. "Demand growth remains lackluster and has not made significant inroads to clear the inventory overhang for oil," notes the investment firm.

    South Korea bans sales of VW vehicles

    • South Korea has banned sales of almost all Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAY) cars, one of the most severe punishments globally for the company as it struggles with a deepening emissions crisis.
    • The country also fined VW $16.1M, claiming it fabricated documents to obtain certifications.
    • Europe's largest automaker more than tripled sales in South Korea to 35,778 last year, before suffering a slump following its scandal.

    Smith & Wesson(SWHC) Hits All Time High After FBI Reports Record Gun Sales For July

    Damon pushes 'Jason Bourne' to box-office lead with $60M

    • With Star Trek Beyond (VIA -2.5%VIAB -2.7%) dropping off in its second weekend, the box-office lead was open for a grab from Matt Damon thriller Jason Bourne (CMCSA+0.5%), which led films with $60M in grosses.
    • The latest Star Trek film dropped nearly 60% of its first week total to finish No. 2 with $24M, just edging the other key newcomer, STX's Bad Moms ($23.4M). Another debut,Nerve, came up shorter for Lions Gate (LGF -0.9%) with $9M in the No. 8 slot.
    • Jason Bourne got the second-highest opening in that franchise's history with Matt Damon returning to the title role for the first time in nine years.
    • Among some high-grossing successes still in the top 10: The Secret Life of Pets(NASDAQ:CMCSA) was fourth-highest this weekend with $18.2M, bringing its cumulative gross to $296.2M; Ghostbusters (SNE -2.8%) hit $106.2M cumulative ($158.3M worldwide) in its third weekend, settling in at No. 7; Finding Dory (DIS -0.5%) was No. 9 with $4.2M, running its cumulative gross to $469M domestic (and $830.5M total worldwide).

    Weak attendance trend for Carmike Cinemas in Q2

    • Carmike Cinemas (NASDAQ:CKEC) reports total attendance fell 11.6% Y/Y in Q2 to 15.875M.
    • Average admission per patron was up 1% to $7.69.
    • Average concession/other sales per patron rose 9.5% to $5.20.
    • Carmike’s Q2 film exhibition costs as a percentage of admissions revenues fell 120 bps to 57.5%.
    • Previously: Carmike Cinemas misses by $0.04, misses on revenue (Aug. 1)

    Theranos presents new product plans

    • Embattled Theranos (Private:THER) founder Elizabeth Holmes announced a new blood-testing device at an academic conference on Monday, but didn’t address issues found with the company's earlier machines as it wasn't the "appropriate" forum to discuss the problems.
    • Theranos' new device, called miniLab, can run a broad range of blood tests on a single desktop machine, including a diagnostic for the Zika virus.
    • Previously: Theranos looks to to restore credibility (Aug. 01 2016)

    Frontier Communications -2.8% as Q2 revenues come short

    • Frontier Communications (FTR -2.3%) has slipped 2.8% further after hours after postingQ2 revenues that missed expectations by nearly 5%.
    • Revenues nearly doubled with the help of adding operations in California, Texas and Florida it acquired from Verizon; excluding those, revenues fell about 3.1% compared to Frontier legacy operations.
    • Residential customers grew to 5.24M from a year-ago 3.28M, and average monthly residential revenue was up to $83.20 from $64.43. Residential churn grew slightly, to 1.91%.
    • On the business side, customers grew to 528,000 from a year-ago 299,000; average monthly business revenue per customer dropped to $658 from $689.21.
    • For the full year, Frontier's forecasting capex of $1.275B-$1.325B, cash tax refunds of $10M-$20M and adjusted free cash flow of $825M-$900M. For 2017, it's guiding to EBITDA of greater than $4B (consensus is for $3.67B).
    • Conference call to come at 4:30 p.m. ET.
    • Press Release

    Washington State sues Comcast for $100M over consumer protection

    • Washington State is suing Comcast for $100M over sales of a "near worthless" service protection plan.
    • Attorney General Bob Ferguson says the cable giant also committed more than 1.8M violations of the state's Consumer Protection Act with improper service call charges and credit screening practices.
    • A $4.99/month fee to avoid charges for service calls didn't cover repairs to wiring inside a wall, and the company obscured that fact, the suit says. In the state's investigation, repeated calls to Comcast (CMCSA +0.4%) resulted in representatives falsely telling customers such repairs were covered.
    • Comcast's service protection plan is a nationwide program, but Ferguson says Washington State's is the first on the issue in the country.

    Microsoft logs record debt sale to fund LinkedIn deal

    • Helping finance its planned purchase of LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has raised $19.75B in its biggest ever debt sale and the fifth largest corporate bond sale on record.
    • Strong demand helped the company to borrow at lower rates than it paid for the $13B of bonds it raised in October, as portfolio managers search out income.
    • Trillions of dollars of sovereign and corporate debt are already trading with a yield below zero.

    Google gears up for the 2016 Summer Olympics

    • Google (GOOGGOOGLannounces enhanced features on its platform for the upcoming 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro.
    • Event schedule, medal count and athlete information discovery, easily viewable results and TV schedules, official broadcast event highlights on YouTube, exploration of Rio de Janeiro via Google Maps and latest Trends highlighted.
    • In preparing for what is sure to be tremendous traffic resulting from the Rio 16 games, Google is aiming to serve as an extensive guide to the event.
    • Check out some of the Search and Maps features already live.

    ISIS details 'Why We Hate You' in new magazine. (video) In the new edition of its full-color, glossy magazine, ISIS mocks those who claim Islam is a peaceful religion, and even wades into the controversy surrounding Donald Trump and the parents of a dead Muslim U.S. soldier. The 15th issue of Dabiq, published on July 31, is titled “Break The Cross” and appears to be primarily directed at those that ISIS considers its enemies, particularly Christians. One section is devoted to the words and actions of Pope Francis and is headlined “In The Words Of Our Enemies.” An editorial titled “Why We Hate You and Why We Fight You” takes aim at Westerners and “apostate ‘Imams’ in the West” who refuse to define ISIS’ motivation as being Islamic. ISIS calls this rhetoric purely political.

    "End The War On Black People" – BlackLivesMatter Demands Reparations, Investments, Political Power. The demands are fairly extensive and call for, among many other things, the following for Black people: free and open access to all public universities, retroactive forgiveness of all student loan debt, passage of H.R. 40 to study a "Reparation Proposal for African Americans," removal of police from schools, retroactive decriminalization and release of all people held on drug and prostitution-related offenses and a restructuring of local, state and federal tax codes to achieve a "radical and sustainable redistribution of wealth."

    Trump: "I'm Afraid The Election Is Going To Be Rigged"

    Wages-Profits-Ratios-072816

    Corporate-Profits-Economic-Growth-080116

    Fed-BalanceSheet-SP500-080116


  111. Dollar/Burr – Down half a point since the close is holding things up for now.  As to having faith in 100… You know me, I'm a bigger picture guy:

    80 to 100 is 20, weak retrace is 96, strong retrace is 92 – textbook pullback so far to strong and now WEAKLY rejected (as long as 95.20 holds) at 96 is just bullish consolidation for another try at 100.

    Currencies are very slow movers – outside the time-frame most traders are capable of getting their heads around.  The fact that you are even paying attention to it suggests your time-expectations are off by miles from the movement patterns.  


  112. Why was the BOJ stimulus disappointing?

    News still makes me lean short. U as well?


  113. It was disappointing because it has an extended time-frame and no amount of money is really enough to fix Japan. $150 isn't going to do much for 22M people and 1/4 of the money (7.5Tn Yen) is for "fiscal spending", which they had to spend anyway – just an excuse to go more in debt.  Same goes for Infrastructure (10.7Tn) – had to be spent anyway, not really found money.  

    I'm not doing anything for the moment – still plenty short in the hedges (we got more aggressively short in the STP last week – especially on the Financials).  

    This Zika thing is going to cost the Republicans Florida already.  I warned them!  Funny/tragic to hear Rick Scott begging Obama for emergency aid…

    CDC issues historic travel warning over Zika in Miami

    CDC director says U.S. must rebuild mosquito-control infrastructure after Miami cases

    There are at least two stocks -- Intrexon Corporation XON and Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. INO -- that continued to get more attention from investors. That's because these stocks and Cerus Corporation CERS shares are likely to gain from the Zika Virus.


  114. Here's another alarming thing I like to look at:


  115. Latch- Well that BHI article certainly was not helpful. Which is it, good, bad or ugly? As they concluded, should be interesting to see what happens.


  116. Is the webinar today?