Courtesy of Mish.
When it comes to discussion of probabilities, Nassim Taleb’s opinion carries a lot of weight.
Taleb is author of the New York Times bestseller The Black Swan: Impact of the Highly Improbable.
Using nearly the same logic as I did earlier, Taleb blasted Nate Silver in a series of tweets on election odds.
Tweet #1 – Stochastics
1/@FiveThirtyEight : 55% “probability” for Trump then 20% 10 d later, not realizing their “probability” is too stochastic to be probability.
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016
Tweet #2 – Business
2/ So @FiveThirtyEight is showing us a textbook case on how to be totally *clueless* about probability yet make a business in it.
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016
Tweet #3 – Variance
3) More technically, when the variance of the probability is v. high it converges to 50%. Kapish?
(metaprobability).— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016
Tweet #4 – Mathematical Explanation
4) Quick explanation of mechanism & why @FiveThirtyEight should stop confusing the public. (sorry for mistakes) pic.twitter.com/LghTxDRN3b
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016
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