Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.
Pre-open futures were in the red prior to this morning’s jobs report, but the disappointing number of new nonfarm jobs, 151K versus a consensus around 180K, instantly sent futures higher. The “bad news is good news” syndrome once again reaffirms the market’s primary dependence on Fed pampering via low rates. The index hit its 0.65% intraday high about 30 minutes into the session. Profit taking sent the index to its 0.13% intraday low in the early afternoon. But the buying returned, and the 500 ended the session with a 0.42% gain.
The yield on the 10-year note closed at at 1.60%, up threebasis points from the previous close.
Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.
Here is weekly chart of the index. Today’s trading volume was 17% below its 50-day moving average, wrapping up a month of light market participation.
A Perspective on Drawdowns
Here’s a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough.
Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted.
Here is a linear scale version of the same chart with the 50- and 200-day moving averages.
A Perspective on Volatility
For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. We’ve also included a 20-day moving average to help identify trends in volatility.
