Courtesy of Mish.
Nate Silver’s Election Odds Model is totally screwed up.
Despite obvious momentum in favor of Trump, Silver projects Trump has a better chance of winning today than a month from now. This is of course ridiculous.
Let’s investigate three charts as of 2016-09-16 11:40 PM Central.
- Silver’s Nowcast: Who would win the election if it were held today
- Silver’s Polls-Only Forecast: What polls alone tell us about Nov. 8
- Silver’s Polls-Plus: What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8
Nate Silver Nowcast Results
Nate Silver Polls Only Results
Nate Silver Polls Plus Results