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Monday, May 27, 2024

Investigating Nate Silver’s “Negative Time Preference” Forecasts for Trump

Courtesy of Mish.

Nate Silver’s Election Odds Model is totally screwed up.

Despite obvious momentum in favor of Trump, Silver projects Trump has a better chance of winning today than a month from now. This is of course ridiculous.

Let’s investigate three charts as of 2016-09-16 11:40 PM Central.

  • Silver’s Nowcast: Who would win the election if it were held today
  • Silver’s Polls-Only Forecast: What polls alone tell us about Nov. 8
  • Silver’s Polls-Plus: What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8

Nate Silver Nowcast Results

ns-nowcast-2016-09-16

Nate Silver Polls Only Results

ns-polls-only-2016-09-16

Nate Silver Polls Plus Results


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