Archive for 2016

GaWD SaVe THe QUeeN…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

GAWD SAVE THE QUEEN





Bank of Japan Owns Over Half of Japanese ETFs; Why Stop There?

Courtesy of Mish.

In addition to being well on the way of cornering the Japanese bond market, the bank of Japan is even further on its way of cornering the Japanese stock market.

Bloomberg reports Bank of Japan Owns More Than Half of Nation’s ETFs.

The Bank of Japan may become an even bigger shareholder of the nation’s equities if policy makers decide to boost stimulus this week. The central bank’s holdings have been rising since it began buying Japanese exchange traded funds at the start of the decade, and now account for more than half of those ETFs.

ETF Whale

ETF Whale

Clearly 50+% is inadequate. Japan’s central bank needs to corner 100% of the market. After it does, it can then institute rules that share prices can only go up in price, never down.

For my sarcastic take on cornering the bond market, please see Bank of Japan Corners 33% of Bond Market: All Japanese Bonds, 40 Years and Below, Yield 0.3% or Less.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock


Original article here.





Bernie Sanders Is A “Testament To American Suckerdom”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Jeff Deist via The Mises Institute,

This article from the Free Beacon about Bernie Sanders being kicked out of a “hippie commune” in 1971 reads like something from The Onion. Bernie, age 30(!) at that point, was like a bad college roommate who preferred late night political discussions to housework and cleaning. And based on uncontested reports of his nonexistent career path, we can safely assume he contributed nothing to the communal finances.

That Bernie Sanders – a shiftless layabout who openly joined socialist and communist groups – can even sniff the US presidency is a testament to American suckerdom and an enduring fetish for collectivism among rich westerners.

But the question of communes is an interesting one for libertarians. Under what conditions, with what people, and for how long can collectivism work? Economics helps explain why communal living (beyond family groups) tends to fail because of bad incentives, but it alone doesn’t explain the political and sociological elements. 

Voluntary communal living is not per se impossible, in small homogeneous groups with close-knit identities and deeply shared values. Israeli kibbutzim are one keen example, although most today employ some elements of private property ownership and differing wages for various jobs. Amish and Mennonite communities in the US are another, with the interesting feature of a “rumspringa” period where young people are permitted to sample modern life before deciding to commit to the church and community.    

Milton Friedman, writing in Chapter 5 of Free to Choose, had this to say about kibbutz communities in Israel:

Egalitarians in the United States may object that the fewness of communes and their fragility reflect the opprobrium that a predominately “capitalist” society visits on such communes and the resulting discrimination to which they are subjected. That may be true for the United States, but as Robert Nozick has pointed out, there is one country where that is not true, where, on the contrary, egalitarian communes are highly regarded and prized. That country is Israel.

Everyone is free to join or leave a kibbutz, and kibbutzim have been viable social organizations. Yet at no time, and certainly not today, have more than about 5 percent of the Jewish population chosen to be members of a kibbutz. That percentage can be regarded as an upper estimate of the fraction


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Another Indiana Poll Goes Trump’s Way But Silver’s Secret Sauce Projects Cruz Will Win

Courtesy of Mish.

A third Indiana poll has Donald Trump in the lead once again.

The latest poll is by You-Gov. It has Trump 40%, Cruz 35%, and Kasich 20%.

In the three relevant polls, Trump leads by +8, +5, and +6 percentage points over Ted Cruz.

Three Indiana Polls

Indiana polls 2016-04-24

The results of the latest poll has Trump’s odds of winning dropping in both Nate Silver’s “Polls Only” forecast and his “Secret Sauce” odds.

Silver’s Polls Only Projection

Indiana Polls Only 2016-04-24


Continue reading here…





Why Voters Will Stay Angry

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From the supporters of Donald Trump to the street protesters of southern Europe, voters around the world are mad as hell. Inequality, immigration, and the establishment’s perceived indifference are firing up electorates in a way that’s rarely been seen before. As the following charts from Bloomberg show, the forces shaping the disruption of global politics have been building for years and aren’t about to diminish…

The world’s middle classes are getting poorer

The share of wealth owned by the middle class declined in every part of the world on a relative basis

U.S. workers’ share of income has dropped to near the lowest since World War II

And in the past century, the rich have gotten markedly richer

Incomes in Europe’s southern crisis countries have fallen since 2009, while rising elsewhere

Things are even worse for young people

In Spain and Greece, unemployment among those under 25 is still close to 40 percent despite a slight improvement in recent years

U.S. student debt is soaring, while median pay for recent college graduates has barely budged

Parents in major western countries are increasingly worried about their children’s prospects

Immigration and war are compounding the anxiety

European countries are seeing unprecedented flows of refugees seeking asylum and have little power to stop them within the passport-free zone

As Syria’s implosion sends millions of refugees toward the EU, more voters choose immigration as a top concern

Americans worry about immigration more than they did 14 years ago

All this is causing politics to fragment

Last year, only 19% of Americans trusted their government “just about always” or “most of the time” – down from 54% after the 9/11 attacks

As measured by historical voting in the U.S. House of Representatives, the two U.S. political parties have moved away from the center in the past 40 years

It’s the same picture in Europe as distrust of government has surged, to a high of 84% in Spain

That’s all helping insurgent parties storm the region’s national parliaments

Political newcomers have gained far greater share in recent elections, and established parties in some cases have withered away

Asia is bucking the trend. So far

Asia has largely been exempt from the West’s discontent, in…
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The British Response To Obama “Why Should We Take Advice From A President Who Has Surrendered The World To Chaos?”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Following Obama’s stunning foray into UK politics with his anti-Brexit oped (which surprised both the pro and anti-Brexit camp as there was little to be gained from Obama’s gracious entrance of an elephant in a UK political China store) on Thursday evening, one person who had a rather visceral reaction was London Mayor Boris Johnson who slammed Obama’s “hypocritical” Brexit diatribe and accused Obama “ancestral dislike of the British empire – of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender” on being part-Kenyan.

Needless to say at this point any rational dialog ended, and even though Johnson had many valid points, they all got lost in the quasi ad hominem din.

However, a far more tempered op-ed appeared in The Telegraph by Janet Daley, one in which she does not invoke Obama’s African heritage, but rather his achievements, or lack thereof, in the global arena, and asks point blank:”Why should we take advice from a president who has surrendered the world to chaos?

Why indeed?

This is her take:

I wonder who in Downing Street briefed Barack Obama’s team on the wording of his friendly warning to the British. Somebody obviously pointed out that the population of this country retained a quaint obsession with the Second World War, and would therefore treat any reference to the glorious dead as irreproachable. So the President invoked the European graves of those American servicemen who died to protect – well, what exactly?

I thought it was the democratic values and reverence for national independence that Britain shared with the US. Did Mr Obama have any sense at all that what he was now urging the British electorate to accept was precisely the surrender of those sacred principles of democratically accountable government and self-determination for which the combined American and British forces had made their ultimate sacrifice?

Could this bizarre intervention have been more cynical or wilfully misinformed? In the end, it seemed to come down to trade advantages – to what might once, back in the day, have been called the global interests of US corporate capitalism. Mr Obama even made specific reference in his article in Friday’s Daily Telegraph to the importance of current negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which would reduce barriers to US business interests in the…
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Chinese Dragon: Breathing Credit Fumes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Eugen von Bohm-Bawerk via Bawerk.net,

Economic forecasting, no matter how complex the underlying model may be, is essentially about extrapolating historical trends. We showed last week how economic models completely fail to pick up on structural shifts using Japan as an example. On the other hand, if an economy doesn’t really change much, as in the case of Australia over the last thirty years, model “forecast” are generally quite accurate. However, spending millions of dollars to do the job of a ruler doesn’t seem like wise resource allocation to us. That said there’s obviously a very limited market for model based GDP forecast and most of them are not exchanged among pure market based players, but rather between governmental funded agencies. True, Wall Street spews out their sell-side GDP propaganda on a regular basis, but claiming international banking is anything akin to a free market is absurd. GDP forecasting is something only wasteful organizations do and that should tell you all you need to know about these exercises in futility. 

IMF Forecast for Australia since 1990

Take the latest IMF forecast for China as a half decent example. According to the IMF, the credit junkie known as China, which needed one trillion dollar in fresh credit in the first quarter alone to create GDP “growth” of somewhere between 6.3 and 6.7 per cent (265 billion dollars for the quarter) will continue to race ahead with six per cent growth for the foreseeable future. The Chinese economy is 100 per cent dependent on ever more money and credit expansion to maintain its completely unsustainable momentum and will very soon come crashing down. And by the way, China’s reported GDP numbers are obviously grossly overstated anyway.

China TSF Q12016

Peddling IMF-fiction though becomes even clearer when we reverse engineer their GDP forecast based on traditional growth models. We know the Chinese labour force is shrinking and the millions of underemployed peasants which used to be the backbone of China’s success are close to exhausted. As the labour force contracts and more resources are spent on taking care of the unproductive members of society savings, and hence investments, will also contribute less to growth going forward.

So how do IMF economists come up with their 6 per cent forecast? Simple, they add to the total factor productivity assuming China with…
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Ron Paul Asks “What Did Fed Chairman Yellen Tell Obama?”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As we reported yesterday, following the meeting held between Obama and Yellen last Monday, one reader tried to get some additional information on what was exchanged between the two most important people in the world beyond the cursory White House statement which is reposted below:

The President and Chair Yellen met this afternoon in the Oval Office as part of an ongoing dialogue on the state of the economy. They discussed both the near and long-term growth outlook, the state of the labor market, inequality, and potential risks to the economy, both in the United States and globally. They also discussed the significant progress that has been made through the continued implementation of Wall Street Reform to strengthen our financial system and protect consumers.

Dissatisfied with the token boilerplate language, the reader requested the minutes from said meeting. The Fed’s response: “we don’t keep those.

It goes without saying that with both the White House and the Fed eager to prevent the disclosure of what was said leaking into the public arena, that it had to be quite important.

How improtant? Here is Ron Paul with his own take on the question of:

What Did Fed Chairman Yellen Tell Obama?

 Last week, President Obama and Vice President Biden held a hastily arranged secret meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen. According to the one paragraph statement released by the White House following the meeting, Yellen, Obama, and Biden simply “exchanged notes” about the economy and the progress of financial reform. Because the meeting was held behind closed doors, the American people have no way of knowing what else the three might have discussed.

Yellen’s secret meeting at the White House followed an emergency secret Federal Reserve Board meeting. The Fed then held another secret meeting to discuss bank reform. These secret meetings come on the heels of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s estimate that first quarter GDP growth was .01 percent, dangerously close to the official definition of recession.

Thus the real reason for all these secret meetings could be a panic that the Fed’s eight year explosion of money creation has not just failed to revive the economy, but is about to cause another major market meltdown.

Establishment politicians and economists find the Fed’s failures puzzling. According…
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White Lies Matter

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Matthew Continetti via NationalReview.com,

How bad is Hillary Clinton’s image? This bad:

Fifty-six percent of Americans view her unfavorably, according to the Huffington Post pollster trend.

One-third of New York Democratic primary voters say she is neither honest nor trustworthy.

Her image, writes Dan Balz, “is at or near record lows among major demographic groups.”

Like, all of them.

Among men, she is at minus 40. Among women, she is at minus 9. Among whites, she is at minus 39. Among white women, she is at minus 25. Among white men, she is 17 positive, 72 negative. Her favorability among whites at this point in the election cycle is worse than President Obama’s ever has been. . . . Among African Americans nationally the NBC–Wall Street Journal poll shows her with a net positive of 51 points. But that’s down 13 points from her first-quarter average and is about at her lowest ever. Among Latinos, her net positive is just two points, down from plus 21 points during the first quarter.

Emphasis mine. No doubt some of this degradation is related to a primary that has turned out to be much more competitive than Clinton imagined. But it’s also worth asking why that campaign has lasted so much longer than we assumed.

A lot of the reason is Clinton: her tin ear, her aloofness, her phony eagerness to please, her suspicion of the press and of outsiders, her — let us say –complicated relationship with the truth, the blithe way in which she dissembles and deceives.

Over the course of three decades in public life Hillary Clinton has misspoken and misled the public and mismanaged herself and her team to such a degree that voters cannot help noticing. Yes, many of her falsehoods are white lies. But white lies accumulate. They matter. Not only do they harm the truth. They are turning Clinton into one of the least popular candidates in history.

Since 1998 Clinton has blamed her poor reputation on the vast right-wing conspiracy. Whitewater, Travelgate, Filegate, the health-care disaster — it was all the fault of the Republicans. What’s forgotten is that Clinton has been lying in the service of her ambitions — most notably by protecting her husband from the truth of his infidelities — since long before Bill ran for president. Nor
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China’s Brave New Math: 24 Of 28 Provinces Report Higher GDP Than National Average

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

There is a saying that the whole is greater than the sum of its part. This may be true everywhere, except in China, where the total is whatever some goalseek machine decides it is.

We first saw China’s flagrant manipulation of data when the nation released its “better than expected” trade “data” two weeks ago. As shown in the chart below, when it comes to the biggest contributor, imports from Hong Kong, it was beyond simply grotesque and had entered the sublimely ridiculous.

Then last weekend, following the release of China’s official national GDP print of 6.7%, China also released its sequential GDP growth of 1.1% which, when annualized, one got a number of 4.5%.  Just as bad, based on the accumulated quarter-on-quarter data over the last year, annual growth in 1Q was just 6.3% – substantially below the NBS’s 6.7% reading for year-on-year growth.

Then over the weekend, China’s farcical “data” entered the twilight zone, when 24 of 28 Chinese province-level regions reported GDP that was higher than the national figure of 6.7%.

As China Radio International reports, 28 of 32 Chinese provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions have released their first-quarter GDP growth figures, with Chongqing and the Tibet Autonomous Region taking the lead.

24 of the provincial-level regions reported rates above the national figure of 6.7%, while places like Jilin found themselves at the bottom of the list with a 6.2% growth. Two other provinces in the country’s northeast, Liaoning and Heilongjiang, have not revealed their numbers yet as well as central Shanxi. 

The immediate spin was even more hilarious: not even stepping for second to appreciate that 85% of provinces “reported” numbers that were greater than the average, a professor Liu Yuanchun at the Renmin University of China said “the figures show the government’s stimulus policies are producing results, which signal stable growth.”

Actually, what the figures show is that China not only continues to fabricate its data with every passing quarter, but it has gotten to the point where it no longer cares if the data makes no sense at all and the government is exposed lying with every incremental data release.

Considering China once again is desperate to recreate its massive debt-fueled capacity glut, one would think…
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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.

By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS, although on many months the (balance sheet) B/S does not actually shrink by this full amount which depends on the redemption schedule) and by end-Q4 markets also experienced some of the largest volatility and drawdowns in nearly a decade.

As Nomura&...



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ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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