Archive for 2016

On April 28th, The US Equity “Bull Market” Will Become The Second Longest Ever

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As BofA’s Michael Harnett reminds us, on Thursday, April 28th, the US equity “bull market” becomes second longest ever. Next Thursday the current bull market will be 2607 days old, exceeding the bull market of June 1949 to August 1956 by one day; the longest bull market ever was October 1990 to March 2000 (3452 days). The following chart shows the evolution of the three Great Bull Markets.

Here are three point from Hartnett for those curious what may come next.

The Path from No. 2 to No. 1

  • First, the last years of the longest ever equity bull market (i.e. the late-90s) were marked by cross-asset volatility and a bubble; that remains a plausible risk scenario.

  • Second, this bull market is trading more like the mid-50s bull market which slowly exhausted itself and then reversed for a year or two as the investment cycle moved to “overheating” in 1956-57 and then brief “recession” in 1956-57. Note how asset markets have struggled to produce upside since the era of excess liquidity came to an end and/or illustrates how low expected returns of bills, bonds, equities, and indeed all risk assets have become thanks to “financial repression”. The total return from a portfolio of equities, bonds, commodities, cash split percentage-wise 50/35/10/5 from the secular lows of 2009 to the end of QE3 in October 2014 of an investment of $100 would have grown to $198. Since the end of QE3 the same portfolio would have fallen 3.4% to a value of $192. Note this also shows a diminishing “wealth effect” for the economy, another reason to be long Main Street, short Wall Street.

  • Third, another factor behind the fatigue is earnings, which as the following chart shows, have also faded in recent quarters (even excluding the energy sector). Our shift in recent years from “raging bull” to “sitting bull” to “volatility bull” reflects low probability of the Higher EPS & Lower Rates in coming quarters.





If Draghi’s Latest Doesn’t Scare You? You Just Aren’t Paying Attention

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Mark St.Cyr,

To say central banks have intervened far too long within the financial markets would be an understatement. However, what can not be overstated is just how far down the “rabbit hole” of lunacy they are continuing to push all measures of fundamental business understandings such as, competitive advantage, governance, price discovery, viability, and a whole lot more. Not withstanding, the devastating effect these disruptions are placing upon the population’s at large that rely on these very businesses for both their own general welfare (as in employment) but also, the taxes they pay that go into general funds of all sorts whether it be local, state, federal et al.

Today, everything (and I do mean everything!) one thought they understood about free market capitalism has been thrown into the wastebasket of history and replaced with edicts and dictates set forth by an un-elected gaggle of economic theorists who’ve decided the world of business is theirs to control. How do they control it? Hint: The courage to print!

Whether you’re a solo-practitioner or CEO of a global concern one thing should be making you very, very, very (did I say very?) concerned: The recent proclamations, as well as, delivery from the ECB’s Mario Draghi.

Mario Draghi not only openly stated, but did so in a manner which many put into the “defiantly so” camp, that he has the right, the means, and wherewithal to purchase corporate debt as he see’s fit. If that doesn’t shake you down to your business core – you just aren’t paying attention.

I’m not trying to be bombastic or hyperbolic just for the fun of it. I’m absolutely stunned at just how openly brazen Mr. Draghi’s comments, as well as, retorts when asked about not only if he would, but rather, if he should intervene (e.g. purchasing) into the differing stratum of corporate bonds. I must state this again: “If that doesn’t shake you down to your business core – you just aren’t paying attention.”

So why is this of such concern some will ask. After all as the thinking will go: “Didn’t we do something similar with GM™?”

Well, yes we did – and the ramifications of that intervention are still yet to be felt. (i.e., as to how the rules of financial law…
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Bad News For Canadians: “You Have 30 Days To Close Your Account”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Dear Canadians, bad news: your money is no longer welcome with U.S. brokerages. Why? Because you are, well, Canadian.





How Pennsylvania Could Push Trump Over The Convention Hump

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As Donald Trump continues his march toward the Republican presidential nomination, he is faced with the possibility that he may have to ultimately weather a brokered convention in Cleveland this July in order to finally secure it.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island all hold primaries on Tuesday, and all will go a long way in determining whether or not Trump can get to the magic number of 1,237 (delegates needed to win the nomination outright). The key to the Trump nomination, however, may hinge upon how he does in the state of Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania’s GOP primary rules are such that out of the 71 delegates up for grabs, only 17 are won with the statewide election, while 54 will eventually come in the form of delegates the people elect during the primary – a so-called “loophole primary.” The key here, as Politico writes, is that the 54 delegates that are chosen (three for each of the state’s 18 congressional districts) are unbound to the state-wide winner and do not necessarily have to vote for that candidate during the convention. To add some clarity to that, during the first round of voting at the GOP convention most delegates that are awarded during primaries are bound to each candidate, and have to vote for that candidate. Some, as is the case with Pennsylvania’s 54 delegates mentioned above, can vote for any candidate they choose during the first round of voting.

The Pennsylvania ballot will have two parts, one for the presidential candidate, and one for the delegate representative (the voter in the GOP convention who will be unbound). The challenge for Donald Trump is to ensure that he’s done enough to not only convince the the people to vote for him on the top part of the ballet, but also to motivate the people to seek out and vote for the correct delegate, who in turn will support Trump at the convention.

It’s a wrench in the traditional path to the nomination to be sure, but then again why would anything be straightforward and easy enough to execute in politics.

How will Trump fare in his quest to ultimately secure the 71 crucial delegates in Pennsylvania? For that we look to an article the …
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Small Cap Gains But Tech Distribution

Courtesy of Declan.

Small Caps were the chief winner on Friday with a near 1% gain. Such action will have pressured Shorts who may have jumped on Thursday’s selling from channel resistance. Rate-of-Change is still holding to the bearish side of the market, although other technicals are bullish; relative performance in particular.






The Nasdaq gapped down to support and is close to confirming a ‘bull trap’. A loss on Monday (i.e a close below 4,900) would confirm. Bulls can look to the 20-day MA to mount a challenge. Bears have the benefit of a ‘sell’ trigger in MACD and On-Balance-Volume, along with continued relative underperformance.





The S&P found support and rebounded, but in the process of doing so maintained a MACD trigger ‘sell’. Also, from the end of April the S&P has been underperforming relative to the Russell 2000. This may be of greater benefit of bulls as money will eventually cycle from speculative (Small Cap) issues to more defensive (Large Cap) stocks.





For Monday, bulls can look to the Russell 2000, bears should watch for a confirmation of a ‘bull trap’ in the Nasdaq.




Long Term bulls should watch the S&P – it’s closest to all-time highs. Should this occur it would confirm the January/February swing low as a pullback in the 2009-present bull market, and not the start of a new bear market (2015-present).




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Saudi Arabia: Nothing But A Lot Of Sand & Hot Air

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by StraightLineLogic’s Robert Gore via The Burning Platform blog,

After three decades of internecine war, Abdul-Aziz bin Saud, allied with the fundamentalist Wahhabist Islamic sect, consolidated the House of Saud’s dominance over Arabia in 1932 with the tacit support of regional imperial power Great Britain. The bedrock of the Saudi Arabian economy, the massive pool of oil in the Al-Hasa region along the Persian Gulf coast, was discovered in 1938 and development began in 1941. Towards the end of World War II, President Roosevelt and Abdul-Aziz reached a handshake deal that has governed relations between the two nations ever since: Saudi Arabia would guarantee the flow of oil to the US at a reasonable price; the US would protect the Saud regime.

Like so many born into wealth, the House of Saud has mistaken fortuitous circumstances for divine favor, haughtily condescending to a world that goes along with its pretensions because of its oil. Saudi Arabia is dependent for its security and armaments on the west, particularly the US. No particular skill is necessary to extract (its reserves are among the world’s shallowest and easiest to tap), transport, or export its oil. It exports most of its oil because it has little industry, although its riches have made it a financial center and funded one of the world’s most generous welfare states. Much of the actual labor is performed by immigrants. The partial diversion of oil revenues has kept the non-House of Saud population pacified.

Oil has made the House of Saud one of the wealthiest extended clans in the world. It retains this privileged position by virtue of US military and intelligence support and its relationship with the Wahhabist clerics. Essentially, the clerics give their unwavering support to the regime, and the regime faithfully executes Sharia law (and those who violate it) in accordance with the dictates of the clerics.

It is an unfortunate tendency of the silver-spoon set not to confine itself to philanthropy, collecting art and fast cars, and other harmless pursuits. They seem compelled to tell the rest of us how to live and think. The Wahhabists make the do-gooders plaguing America look benign. It may be true that some sects of Islam are peaceful and only want to live and let live, but not the…
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A Look At This Week’s Historic Market Anniversary… And What May Come Next

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As BofA’s Michael Harnett reminds us, on Thursday, April 28th, the US equity “bull market” becomes second longest ever. Next Thursday the current bull market will be 2607 days old, exceeding the bull market of June 1949 to August 1956 by one day; the longest bull market ever was October 1990 to March 2000 (3452 days). The following chart shows the evolution of the three Great Bull Markets.

Here are three point from Hartnett for those curious what may come next.

The Path from No. 2 to No. 1

  • First, the last years of the longest ever equity bull market (i.e. the late-90s) were marked by cross-asset volatility and a bubble; that remains a plausible risk scenario.

  • Second, this bull market is trading more like the mid-50s bull market which slowly exhausted itself and then reversed for a year or two as the investment cycle moved to “overheating” in 1956-57 and then brief “recession” in 1956-57. Note how asset markets have struggled to produce upside since the era of excess liquidity came to an end and/or illustrates how low expected returns of bills, bonds, equities, and indeed all risk assets have become thanks to “financial repression”. The total return from a portfolio of equities, bonds, commodities, cash split percentage-wise 50/35/10/5 from the secular lows of 2009 to the end of QE3 in October 2014 of an investment of $100 would have grown to $198. Since the end of QE3 the same portfolio would have fallen 3.4% to a value of $192. Note this also shows a diminishing “wealth effect” for the economy, another reason to be long Main Street, short Wall Street.

  • Third, another factor behind the fatigue is earnings, which as the following chart shows, have also faded in recent quarters (even excluding the energy sector). Our shift in recent years from “raging bull” to “sitting bull” to “volatility bull” reflects low probability of the Higher EPS & Lower Rates in coming quarters.





Everything’s Fake About China Except This…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Fake goods, fake economic growth, fake trade, fake cities, fake human rights, fake country. Real debt.

The global trade in counterfeit goods accounts for 2.5 percent of the world’s imports and is worth almost half a trillion euro, according to a report from the OECD and EUIPO. US, Italian and French brands suffer the most from the lucrative global trade in knockoffs. The report analyzed customs seizures around the world between 2011 and 2013, finding that China accounted for the most fake goods of any nation by some distance.



You will find more statistics at Statista

h/t The BurningPlatform

So everything’s fake about China! Except this! Real Debt!

And that bubble is bursting.





The Economy As It Is, Or The Economy As It “Should Be”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

The mainstream view of the unemployment statistics suggest that any weakness in the US economy, manufacturing or beyond, will be temporary and shallow because employment growth remains robust. The question is not whether the statistics suggest such a trend but rather if those accounts correspond with anything real. As noted earlier this week, even the Federal Reserve’s relatively new measure of broader employment conditions has registered a clear deviation due to economic weakness that amplified toward the end of 2014.

At the very least, there is enormous pressure in the energy sector. It is being felt as a double shot from oil prices affecting direct business and now an almost certain turn in the credit cycle that will shut off additional liquidity just when weaker firms need it the most. The latest quarterly update from oil services giant Schlumberger is all that is necessary to understand the economic “headwind” coming from the energy space:

“The decline in global activity and the rate of activity disruption reached unprecedented levels as the industry displayed clear signs of operating in a full-scale cash crisis,” Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Paal Kibsgaard said in an earnings report Thursday. “This environment is expected to continue deteriorating over the coming quarter given the magnitude and erratic nature of the disruptions in activity.”

No cash and no prospects for achieving more junk flotations mean only more of the worst case – bankruptcies and, for the junk bubble, defaults. The significance of the oil industry is more than just its epic fall from flush and grace; it represents the first segment that has already passed through the economic boundary and there are already a number of other sectors ready to follow into the amplified downdraft. This morning I found that it is both oil and retail that is leading the current turn in bankruptcies already.

The jump in commercial bankruptcies and the timing of it corresponds quite well to what we find in actual consumer spending, especially activity in goods or just retail sales. It does not correlate at all with what the BLS is projecting about hiring and employment in the retail sector. Even if retail pressure is only just beginning, the last trend you


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Why Goldman Expects The Japanese Yen To Collapse Within 12 Months

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Forget the G-20 agreement on no “competitive devaluations” – the full court press on the Bank of Japan to engage in the next round of aggressive currency devaluation is on, just three months after Kuroda unveiled Japan’s first negative interest rate.

Recall that it was Goldman who not only brought forward its forecast for a first rate hike from July to April and first suggested earlier this week that it is time for the Bank of Japan to forget about caution and to more than double its purchases of equities in the form of ETFs (and which the BOJ already owns a majority of all available securities) as doing either more NIRP and more QE may no longer have a favorable outcome:

… we think the BOJ is most likely to ease mainly via the qualitative measure, with increasing ETF purchasing the central pillar, with a view to improving business confidence. We think the market is already factoring in an increase in annual purchasing from ¥3.3 tn to ¥5-6 tn, and we thus think the BOJ may look to slightly more than double its current figure to around ¥7 tn.

This pushed both the USDJPY and the S&P off their overnight lows when it was first floated in the early morning of April 20.

Then, on Friday, the Yen had its biggest one day surge since the announcement of the expanded QQE in October 2014 when Bloomberg reported of the latest BOJ trial balloon whereby “the Bank of Japan may consider helping banks lend by offering a negative rate on some loans, according to people familiar with talks at the BOJ.” This happened just as the net spec short position in the USDJPY hit record short, forcing yet another massive squeeze in the currency which soared higher by nearly 300 pips in one day.

Which brings us to today, when in its latest attempt to throw everything at the wall and hope something sticks, Goldman Sachs’ FX team – whose trading recommendations in the past 6 months have been an unmitigated disaster - is predicting that the $/JPY will “move higher again in the near term and continue to forecast $/JPY at 130 a year from now.”

Why does Goldman…
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Phil's Favorites

A doctor shares 7 steps he'll review to decide when and where it's safe to go out and about

 

A doctor shares 7 steps he'll review to decide when and where it's safe to go out and about

The Inn at Little Washington in Washington, Virginia, shown May 20, 2020, plans to use mannequins in its dining room to enforce social distancing when it reopens at the end of the month. Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

As we return to some degree of normalcy after weeks of social distancing, we all need a plan. As an immunologist, I’ve given this a lot of ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

A doctor shares 7 steps he'll review to decide when and where it's safe to go out and about

 

A doctor shares 7 steps he'll review to decide when and where it's safe to go out and about

The Inn at Little Washington in Washington, Virginia, shown May 20, 2020, plans to use mannequins in its dining room to enforce social distancing when it reopens at the end of the month. Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

As we return to some degree of normalcy after weeks of social distancing, we all need a plan. As an immunologist, I’ve given this a lot of ...



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Zero Hedge

18 Million Jobs At Risk Of Permanent Loss: What Happens To Small Businesses When The Bailout Money Is Spent

Courtesy of Nick Colas of DataTrek Research

American small businesses are going to bear the brunt of the COVID Crisis and they employ 47% of the entire US workforce. Some will bounce back quickly (e.g. health care, construction, professional services) but accommodation/food service and retail will not. There are 18 million workers attached to small businesses there. Bottom line: at this early point in the cycle, large businesses have to find their footing because that’s what will set the floor on small business activity. The sooner that happens, the sooner small business America can start to recover.

We continue to worry – a lot – about how US small ...



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Chart School

Is this your local response to COVID 19

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

This is off topic, but a bit of fun!


This is the standard reaction from the control freaks.








This is the song for post lock down!







What should be made mandatory? Vaccines, hell NO! This should be mandatory: Every one taking their tops off in the sun, they do in Africa!

Guess which family gets more Vitamin D and eats less sugary carbs, TV Show



...



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ValueWalk

Hazelton Capital Partners 1Q20 Commentary: Long Renewable Energy Group

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Hazelton Capital Partners commentary for the first quarter ended April 30, 2020, discussing their current portfolio holdings Renewable Energy Group, Apple and Berkshire Hathaway.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Dear Partner,

Hazelton Capital Partners, LLC (the “Fund”) returned -23.8% from January 1, 2020 through March 31, 2020. By comparison, the S&P 500 returned -19.4% during the same quarter.

Before reviewing the 1st quarter of 2020 and Hazelton Capital Partners’ portfolio, my sincere hope is that everyone, their family, friends, a...



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The Technical Traders

Gold Stocks Are Overbought. You Don't Want Prices to Go Straight Up

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Bill Powers of MiningStockEducation.com talks with a professional trader and market commentator Chris Vermeulen says gold stocks are overbought and need a breather which would be good for the overall upward trend.

Chris shares how he has and is trading the junior gold sector. He called the recent February 24th top in the gold stocks before the March crash. And now he is warning to a top in some gold-stock positions during an expected pullback.

Chris also addresses whether a lot of the gap-up’s in many gold...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper Counter-Trend Rally Could Peak Here, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could ole Doc Copper be sending an important message about the overall health of the global economy and the stock market in the next couple of weeks? It appears it could!

This chart looks at Copper futures on a weekly basis over the past 7-years. Doc Copper looks to have double topped in late 2017 and early 2018. After the double top, Copper has continued to create a series of lower highs, which sends a bearish divergence message to stocks.

Numerous highs and lows have taken place along the line (1) over the past 5-years. The rally off the March lows ...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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