Archive for 2016

AsiaPac Stocks Plunge Most In 8 Months As China Money Market Turmoil Accelerates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Hong Kong Interbank borrowing rates spiked to 6-month highs as a combination of central-planning-inspired liquidity restriction and global ‘risk-off’ strikes. 3M HIBOR spiked 95bps to 4.21% – its highest in 6 months; and Chinese stocks are feeling the pain, tumbling most in 3 months. Having reached historical lows in volatility, it appears ‘pent-up’ anxiety is coming back with fury. The broad-based MSCI Asia APEX 50 index is down 3.5% – the most in 8 months

This could be a problem…

And Chinese stocks are displeased…

India is down most in a month…

And Indonesia is down most in 7 months…

“It’s probably nothing”

Charts: Bloomberg





Samsung Sheds $20BN Of Market Cap In 2 Days After Recalling Exploding Phones

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Turns out spontaneous pocket explosions are not a desirable feature for smartphone consumers…just ask Samsung.  The company was forced to recall 2.5mm phones last week after reports surfaced of the device exploding during or after charging.  That doesn’t look healthy.

Get your exciting Samsung Galaxy Note7 “Pocket Bomb” here #samsung #explode #notegate https://t.co/j91ErOsxU6

— Robert Follis (@robfol) September 2, 2016

Meanwhile Samsung shareholders have suffered the biggest 2-day price drop since Lehman, with the stock shedding nearly $20 billion in market cap.  The recall is expected to cost $1BN but the brand value destruction is obviously much higher with Apple simply having to make phones that don’t spontaneously combust to win over consumers.

Samsung 2

Samsung 1

Meanwhile the FAA has warned airline passengers not to turn on or charge Galaxy Note 7 devices on board aircraft and not to stow them in any checked baggage.

FAA Statement on Samsung Galaxy Note 7 Devices https://t.co/NADpT5Jma4 pic.twitter.com/e9uJvNmUUq

— The FAA (@FAANews) September 8, 2016

But the video made it look really cool…





911 and the Lost American Culture

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

911 is an event that changed America forever.  Probably that can be said for many such events like Pearl Harbor, the sinking of the Lusitania, or the day the Allies ‘won’ World War 2.  But 911 is a lot more complicated, probably just because it’s an event that was in line with the times, culture, and changing world.  And as we explain in Splitting Pennies – a lot of money was made on Forex trades.  

Everything that was before 911 was no more.  From the date of 911 until now, America has been preoccupied with war, security, and various emergencies.  It’s no coincidence that this event is known as ’911′ which is the emergency code Americans dial.  America is in a state of emergency.

911 was the paradigm game changer of our century.  As we understand this event better, we can better understand markets and the world as it really is, and better ourselves for a brighter more prosperous future.

Some personal experiences not found in the ether

911 has been so well analyzed and documented by so many researchers.  Thanks to all of them.  Here’s some subjective experiences no one ever knew.

In the year 2000 a group of investors had been assembled via Private Placement Memorandum in Palm Beach County to invest 20 Million USD in the development of an intelligent stock trading algorithm, we code named the project ADTS “Automatic Day Trading System” (which was heresy in that time “Program Trading”).  The investors were all committed based on the involvement of an Italian Illuminati Investment Banker with the initials BT (now deceased).  We were fully subscribed in July of 2001 and in August I was personally looking for office space for our startup.  Among the locations I was investigating were the twin towers (one of our backers was an NYSE insider, Wall St. seemed an appropriate place to operate) although practically, we probably would have chosen south Florida, as the majority of the founders were based in Palm Beach County at that time, as well as BT.  

The morning of 911 I remember waking up with the sun, unusual for me (i’m an alarm clock guy, i can’t wake up with the roosters).  It was a beautiful sunny day in Palm Beach I


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Elon Musk: “We Have Not Ruled Out” That UFO Caused Space X Explosion

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via SputnikNews.com,

@ashwin7002 @NASA @faa @AFPAA We have not ruled that out.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 9, 2016

The statement by the vaunted entrepreneur that he couldn’t rule out that UFO hunters were correct that an unidentified object or weapon initiated the explosion has alien enthusiasts out in full force.

The frenzied excitement for alien hunters hit new heights on Friday when the innovative wunderkind Elon Musk wrote to a commenter on Twitter that “We have not ruled that [a UFO hitting the Space X Falcon 9 rocket] out” with theories ranging from an attack by foreign defense forces to a laser attack by an alien ship quickly cascading through social media.

The statement comes one week after self-proclaimed UFO hunters pointed to video footage from the SpaceX explosion noting that there was a black object barreling near the rocket only seconds before explosion with YouTube viewers quickly dispatching theories that the flying object was a bird or a bug based on the relative speed of the object – over 1,000 MPH – and its appearance behind riggings that ruled out the possibility that it was a bug in the camera lens.

The explosion quickly consumed the rocket destroying Facebook’s AMOS-6 internet-beaming satellite and causing unprecedented damage to the launchpad – a fairly unusual incident for a rocket explosion. Musk said the explosion was “really a fast fire” and was unable to point to specific mechanical causes for the failure of the rocket.

One Twitter user said that the sound at 54 seconds in a video posted “sounds like a metal joint popping under stress” which Elon Musk said was “most likely true” but also said that “we can’t yet find it on any vehicle sensors” pointing to the possibility of some outside sabotage.

“Important to note that this happened during a routine filling operation. Engines were not on and there was no apparent heat source,” said Musk questioning how the rocket could spontaneously erupt in flames. “Particularly trying to understand the quieter bang sound a few seconds before the fireball goes off. May come from rocket or something else.”

One person suggested that it could be a drone,


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Is A VaR Shock Just Starting: Here Is The Checklist

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last Thursday, when the S&P was once again surging to within a fraction of taking out its all time high, we warned readers to “Brace For “VaR Shock” – How The Bank Of Japan May Be About To Unleash A Global Selloff.” Of particular interest was whether 10Y JGB yields would soar, now that the market was questioning the BOJ’s resolve to keep longer rates under control, leading to a risk-contagion scenario like the one seen in 2003, when Japanese bond yields exploded. We then said that “what that selloff – in a time of soaring cross-asset correlations, record quant leverage and virtually non-existent market liquidity – would mean for equities, we don’t know, – but thanks to Haruhiko “Peter Pan” Kuroda, we will soon find out.”

Well, the timing of the post could not have been better, because we got our answer the very next day when – just as predicted here on Thursday – as a result of crashing bond MTMs – the very definition of a VaR shock – global stocks suffered their first aggressive global selloff in months, the biggest one in fact since Brexit, as trader attention, which has been ignoring pretty much every development and key news update over the past two months assuming instead that central banks “have it covered”, finally focused on the sharp selloff in long-dated global bonds leading to cross-asset liquidation and sharp quant deleveraging, as we predicted just hours earlier.

Friday’s selloff, incidentally, also took place just two days after JPM’s head quant, Marko “Gandalf” Kolanovic issued a new stark warning: “Volatility Is About To Surge“, due to catalysts which – as we explained in the post – included this month’s central bank (ECB, BOJ, Fed) meetings, seasonals pushing market volatility higher, and leverage in systematic strategies and option positioning provide fuel for volatility. We bring this up just to silence all those peanut gallery complainers that Kolanovic “has no idea what he is talking about.”

But while Kolanovic’s arguments confirm that our prediction of an imminent VaR shock is correct, another influential JPM analyst, Nick Panigirtzoglou, author of JPM’s Flows and Liquidity weekly snapshot, is just fractionally more optimistic and says that while a VaR shock is a distinct possibility, he notes that “not all conditions underpinning VaR shocks


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Chair of University Engineering Department: Fire Did NOT Cause Collapse of Third Building on 9/11

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Today, the Chair of the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks – a PhD in structural engineering (Leroy Hulsey) – publicly announced that fire did NOT bring down World Trade Center building 7 on 9/11:

He joins scores of other structural engineers, civil engineers, high-rise architects, and fire experts who say that the government’s story is false … Building 7 was NOT brought down by fire.

And see this.

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Maker Of Drug Fueling Heroin Overdose Epidemic Is Lobbying To Keep Weed Illegal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Carey Wedler via TheAntiMedia.org,

In 2016, cannabis is still illegal in many parts of the country, and pharmaceutical giant Insys Therapeutics Inc., a manufacturer of fentanyl, just demonstrated much of the reason why.

Arizona is currently gearing up to vote on legalizing recreational cannabis. Ahead of that vote, Insys just contributed $500,000 in the fight against Proposition 205, U.S. News and other outlets report.

The Arizona-based pharmaceutical company recently gave the funds to Arizonans for Responsible Drug Policy, an anti-legalization campaign group actively fighting to defeat the ballot measure.

Insys’s contributions are particularly unsettling considering the company currently markets only one product — a spray version of fentanyl, a powerful opiate.

Fentanyl has become one of the country’s most dangerous prescription drugs. It is more potent than traditional addictive opiates, which already claim thousands of lives every year and drive addicts to graduate to heroin use. Fentanyl is 50 times stronger than heroin and has been linked to a growing number of deaths in the United States. It is particularly dangerous when sold on the street and cut with other drugs. Fentanyl has been blamed for worsening the sharp rise in heroin overdoses as dealers across the country have begun adding it to heroin to make it stronger.

Yet Insys and opponents of legalization are more concerned about a plant.

According to Arizonans for Responsible Drug Policy, “four states and the District of Columbia have already legalized [cannabis] and are seeing disastrous repercussions for their youth, workplaces and communities.

Of course, this assessment is incorrect.

Colorado has lower rates of teen cannabis consumption than the national average, and studies have shown driving while under the influence of the plant is far less dangerous than alcohol, a legal drug. Colorado has seen a spike in tourism, business, and tax revenues as a result of legalization.

Interestingly, a study by Johns Hopkins university last year found states with medical marijuana had lower rates of overdose from opiates.

In spite of Arizonans for Responsible Drug Policy’s claims they care about communities, it is completely comfortable taking half a million dollars from a company that produces one of the most toxic


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Weekly Market Recap Sep 11, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

After a stifling tight range for many weeks – and more of that the first 4 days of the week, we finally saw a break in the action Friday. It occurred to the downside.  Quite a few technical markers were broken; more on that later.   It was all about the Federal Reserve again as someone dared to promote the idea that a rate hike could occur!

Comments from Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren—a voter this year on the Fed’s interest-rate setting board—helped to contribute toe the selloff. He said that the U.S. central bank could resume gradual rate increases as the risks facing the economy are more in balance, reigniting Wall Street’s fears about the end of easy-money policies.

To show how inane the market is about trying to read the tea leaves of a whopping 25 basis point rate hike, just the talk of a speech Monday by a normally dovish Fed member (Lael Brainard) helped stoke the fire of Friday’s selloff.

Thursday the European Central Bank sat pat, rather than do even more stimulus – which ruffled some feather of the “easy money, now and forever” crowd.

Ironically economic data the past week was pretty mediocre which the bulls were liking as it means no rush for the Federal Reserve to move.  “Bad news is good news”:

The Institute for Supply Management said its nonmanufacturing index fell to 51.4 last month from 55.5 in July—the slowest pace of growth since 2010.

bespoke

Then the hammer dropped Friday.

Here is a nice 5 day “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 via Doug Short.

spx-five-day

Yikes: Did I mention the robots are coming?

The week ahead…

Can the market recover from the horror that is a POTENTIAL 25 basis point hike in December?  Can the rumors of a September rate hike chase out the last remaining bull!?  Oh the drama!

Monthly retail sales will be the major economic report on deck.  Expect almost all talk to be about the Fed and it’s Sep 20-21 meeting though.

Index charts:

Short term: We were waiting…
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Hillary’s Doctor Discloses Pneumonia Diagnosis Made Last Friday: Questions Abound

Courtesy of Mish.

CNN Reports Hillary Clinton was diagnosed with Pneumonia last Friday. Her doctor made the diagnosis last Friday and told her to slow her schedule.

Well, she didn’t. And questions abound.

Why did it take so long for the diagnosis? Given that pneumonia is contagious, why is she out in public coughing all over everyone? Are they hiding something even more serious?

sick-hillary

Clinton was diagnosed on Friday with pneumonia, and “was put on antibiotics, and advised to rest and modify her schedule,” Dr. Lisa Bardack said in a statement.

“While at this morning’s event, she became overheated and dehydrated. I have just examined her and she is now re-hydrated and recovering nicely,” said Bardack, chairman of internal medicine at the Mount Kisco Medical Group.

Bardack attended to Clinton at her Chappaqua home Sunday.

The Clinton campaign declined to answer questions Sunday why her diagnosis wasn’t disclosed Friday. Clinton’s health came into sharp focus Sunday as she appeared wobbly and stumbled as Secret Service agents helped her into a van to exit a memorial service marking the 15th anniversary of the September 11, 2001, attacks. The Democratic nominee traveled to her daughter’s nearby apartment and the campaign initially said she felt “overheated.”

“Mrs. Clinton is a healthy 67-year old female whose current medical conditions include hypothyroidiam and seasonal pollen allergies,” wrote Dr. Lisa Bardack, Clinton’s doctor since 2001, in a health statement provided by Clinton’s campaign.

The health statement says the blood clot, also known as a thrombosis, that Clinton suffered between her brain and skull following a fainting spell and concussion in late 2012 is completely resolved.

But as a precaution, Clinton remains on daily blood thinners, something her husband previously revealed. Clinton takes Coumadin, the brand name for the blood thinner warfarin. She also takes Armour Thyroid for her hypothyroidism, antihistamines and Vitamin B12.

Pneumonia is Contagious

Medicine.Net says “Most pneumonias are caused by bacteria and viruses, but some pneumonias are caused by inhaling toxic chemicals that damage lung tissue. Pneumonia can cause fever, chills, cough, and difficulty breathing. Severe pneumonia can result in death. Because pneumonia is caused mainly by infectious microbes, pneumonia can be contagious. Pneumonia caused by chemical fumes or other poisons not made by infectious agents is not contagious.”

WebMD says “Pneumonia is an acute infection


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DOJ Study Finds “Real And Nearly Unprecedented” Spike In Homicides Around U.S.

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

We have frequently written about rising violent crime around the U.S. with an emphasis on the soaring homicides in Chicago which are up nearly 50% YoY (see recent posts here and here).  Now it seems as though others in the mainstream media are starting to take notice.

The New York Times recently compiled data from around the country and found there were nearly 6,700 homicides reported in the 100 largest cities in 2015, a YoY increase of 950 or roughly 17%, with nearly half of the rise — 480 of the 950 — coming from seven cities.  Their study is tied to a June 2016 report published by the National Institute of Justice in which Richard Rosenfeld, a criminology professor at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, declared that “the [2015] homicide increase in the nation’s large cities was real and nearly unprecedented.”

Murder rates rose significantly in 25 of the nation’s 100 largest cities last year, according to an analysis by The New York Times of new data compiled from individual police departments.

The findings confirm a trend that was tracked recently in a study published by the National Institute of Justice. “The homicide increase in the nation’s large cities was real and nearly unprecedented,” wrote the study’s author, Richard Rosenfeld, a criminology professor at the University of Missouri-St. Louis who explored homicide data in 56 large American cities.

In the Times analysis, half of the increase came from just seven cities — Baltimore, Chicago, Cleveland, Houston, Milwaukee, Nashville and Washington.

The map below highlights the cities with the biggest spikes in YoY murder rates from 2014 to 2015.  That said, the data doesn’t speak to the continued rise in violence so far in 2016 with Chicago homicides up nearly 50% YoY.

National Homicides

And here is a look at the YoY increase in homicides in the top 56 cities of the U.S. courtesy of the National Institute of Justice report from June 2016.

Top 56 Cities

The chart


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Zero Hedge

Enemy Of The People?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via The Zman blog,

There has never been a time when normal people did not know the media was biased and biased in a predictable direction. For every non-liberal in the media, there were at least ten liberals. The ratio was probably higher, but then, as now, some lefties liked to pretend they were independents or some third option.

The media used to invest a lot of time denying they had a bias and an agenda, but the only people who believed them were on the Left, which had the odd effect of confirming they had a bias and an agenda.

...



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Phil's Favorites

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

 

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

Courtesy of 

Shout to Leigh!

On the new Talk Your Book – Josh Brown is joined by Leigh Drogen of Estimize, one of the leading providers of crowdsourced financial and economic data to talk about the trend in corporate profits that could potentially lead to an earnings recession later this year.

What is the thing that Leigh is seeing in the data that Wall Street isn’t yet picking up on? What segment of the stock market is most at risk? Why is the crowd smarter than the narrow consensus of Wall Street analysts?

Check out Estimize ...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Testing Important Breakout Levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold and Silver from a long-term perspective have created a series of lower highs over the past 8-years. Will 2019 bring a change to this trend? A big test is in play!

Gold since the lows in 2016 has created a series of higher lows, while Silver may have created a double bottom.

Gold & Silver are currently facing break attempts a (1) and (2). These falling resistance lines have disappointed metals bulls for the past few years.

The direction of Gold and Silver weeks and months from now should be highly influenced by what each does as they are attempting to break above important resistance levels.

To become a member of Kimbl...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While the market has been increasingly focused on the rising headwinds in the global economy in general, and China's economic slowdown in particular, while the media is obsessing over daily revelations that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia to get elected, a far more critical, if underreported, shift has been taking place over the past year.

As we reported in June, whether due to concerns over draconian western sanctions and asset confiscations following the poisoning of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, or simply because it wanted to diversify away from the dollar, Russia liquidated virtually all of its Treasury holdings in the late spri...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's failure based on his personality, which was evident years ago. This article, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump became president, in July, 2016, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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