Courtesy of Mish.
Conventional wisdom suggests National Front candidate Marine le Pen will make it to the second round in French elections, then lose in a landslide to whoever her opponent happens to be.
I believe le Pen’s odds of winning it outright are far better than most think.
Current Polls
Chart from Wikipedia, with image clips added.
Top Five candidates
- Marine le Pen: National Front – Eurosceptic, Anti-Immigration – 25%
- François Fillon: Republicans – Center Right – 24%
- Emmanuel Macron: En Marche! – Socialist – 17%
- Manuel Valls: Socialist – 11%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon: Left Front – Socialist – 13%
In France, the winners of each party square off in around one of national elections. If no one gets 50% of the vote, the top two square off in round two.
With about 25% or so solid votes, le Pen is likely to make it to the second round. The others battle to see who comes up against le Pen.
Eurointelligence Reports
