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Winning Wednesday – Our Seminar Trade Makes a Quick $5,000!

We're back from Las Vegas!  

As you can see, the trip was easily paid for with an instant $5,000 winner on our Natural Gas (/NG) Futures trade and you didn't even have to be in Vegas to play as I put a note out to all our Members in the live Member Chat Room saying:

/NG round tripped, chance to load up again at $2.90.

This morning we took the money and ran at $2.97 along with $500 per contract on oil at $52.80 but we're still long on coffee (/KCN7, now $147.50) and short on the Russell (/TF, now 1,395) – there's always something fun to play in the Futures!  In fact, there seems to be a lot of demand for an all-day Futures Trading Workshop so let us know if you are interested and we'll see if we can find a date to hold one of those and, of course, we often find good Futures to trade in our weekly Live Trading Webinars – and we have one today at 1pm, EST.  

As I noted in yesterday's post, we found some stocks to trade during our weekend seminar and so did Warren Buffett, who followed us into Monsanto (MON) as well as Apple (AAPL), with Berkshire adding 42M shares at about $5Bn – a LOT more than we paid but still a lot less than it is now.

Of course, if you still want to buy AAPL for $120 or less, you can – just use our very simple system for buying stocks at a discount, which will be featured at the NY Money Show on Feb 27th, when I teach a 1:30 class on the subject that will apparently be live-cast (so I guess I'd better work on some slides!).  

Anyway, without all that tedious actually LEARNING how to give yourself a discount on almost any stock you want, the way I would trade AAPL at the moment is — WAITING FOR IT TO PULL BACK!!!  What, you think I'm some kind of TV huckster who tells you to chase things after you missed a 25% run?   NO – that's the whole point of what we teach people NOT to do – you missed it – either it gets cheaper or you move on….  Jeeze….

Monsanto (MON), on the other hand, is still silly at $107.63 since Bayer has already agreed to buy them for $128 per share and we invested ages ago at bet $88.50 and Warren has now followed us in closer to $100 (maybe he's only a PSW Report Member and might have missed the Webinar when we added it to our Long-Term Portfolio).  I can't get you into MON for $88.50 anymore but I can help you pay 10% less than Warren Buffet with the following trade:

  • Sell 10 MON 2019 $100 puts for $9.30 ($9,300)

The mechanics of selling a put is that someone PAYS YOU $9,300 (in this case) in exchange for you promising to buy MON from them for $100 between now and Jan, 2019.  You can be forced, at the stockholder's discretion, any time they want, to spend $100,000 on Monsanto, so make sure you REALLY want to own 1,000 shares at net $90,700 ($90.70/share) but, as noted, Warren does and we're down for 1,500 shares at net $88.50 in our own LTP.

The nice thing (for those of us in the Top 1%, that is) is that the margin requirement on this trade is only $13,057 so our return on margin is 71% – far, far better than the 10% discount and a lot more than we could make, percentage-wise, if we bought the stock for $107.63 and they finalize their deal at $118.  Even better, we probably don't have to wait until 2019 to finalize our deal as these put options would cancel out the day the deal finalizes – and we get to keep the $9,300 as our payment for NOT buying MON for $100.  Isn't is great to be rich???

Seriously, they say "the rich get richer" but they actually have no idea how many ways there are to make money when you already have it.  Not only do we get paid not to buy stocks but it's a long-term capital gain that's only taxed at 20% (soon to be 10-15% under our beloved President Trump – long may he rain more and more money on those of us who need it least).  

In fact, the main reason we went long on Exxon (XOM) as a Top Trade Idea from our weekend seminar is that Trump is giving them tax breaks too and that will pump up their net earnings and that's MORE FREE MONEY for us Top 1% shareholders to enjoy while we suck it out of your wallet at the pump.  Thank you for voting!  

Speaking of inflation, we just got a stunningly high 0.6% rise in the CPI, which matches the 0.6% rise in the PPI yesterday and that is 100% higher than the expectations by the leading economorons they usually survey.  It was led, of course, by a 7.8% increase in gasoline in January after a 2.4% increase in December, which compounds well over 10% so thank you for shopping and thank you for taking the humble CEO of XOM and making him your Secretary of State.  Gasoline used to be $4 a gallon wholesale under Bush, it's down to $1.54 – we can do this to you for a long, long time so start saving now for your next tank of gas and thank you once again for your vote!  

There is no better way to get rich than to nickel and dime the consumers to death with rising prices and fees – especially when you can force more of them to participate in the labor force (due to their need for money to cover the basics), which then keeps our labor costs down WHILE justifying our need for tax incentives and stimulus to "help create jobs" – no matter how crappy those jobs are.  America – F' Yeah!  

Once again, this is why we put out our Secret Santa's Inflation Hedges to get you through 2017.  As we noted in yesterday's post, our SLW Trade of the Year is already up 900%, which is a good start on the way to our 1,800% goal but there's 3 other trades there you can still get involved with and, of course, we have trade ideas like that every day for our Members…

Today though, as I noted, we're short the Russell Futures (/TF) and rising CPI puts the Fed on the table for faster rate increases as does EVERYTHING the Fed speakers said yesterday – including Yellen herself, so I think it's completely ridiculous that the markets are trading like it's 1999 – it clearly is not


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  1. Good morning everyone!

    Webinar day today! 1pm Eastern

  2. I almost want to go long cl @ 10.31am as it popped last 4 reports. 

  3. Good Morning.

  4. We really need to start looking at these lines! There are some support areas being created now.

  5. Phil. NG. You probably saw it entered at 2,9 and stopped out at 2.898. Although you did not say to add tight stops I did anyway. Was I wrong? Feeling regret missing the $5000

  6. Holding futures over night is not for everyone…unless you laugh in the face of danger…. :)

  7. PhiL-- Please take a look at your statement above on the mechanics of selling 10 puts on MON.  I believe your description covers selling calls, not puts. Also the LTP sale of 15 MON puts would require purchase of 1,500 shares, not 15,000 as you stated. Thanks!

  8. Phil—I have about 300k that I recently received and would like to put it to work in a 3 to 5 year time frame—any ideas as to where to begin—-too bad I did not get it when u started the portfolios—thanks for the help

  9. The VIX $11 calls were the same price yesterday as they are today but VIX is $1 higher.  Anybody know why they don't move?

  10. Good morning! 

    What, I'm doing a webinar?  Thank goodness Monday is a day off… surprise

    /CL/Burr – It's tempting to do things like that but I find that playing a side I don't have conviction in causes more losses than wins on the whole.

    Big Chart – Looks like we need a bigger chart!  I'd like to see some sort of pullback to test those supports but we are getting too far out of range. 

    /NG/Latch – There's a reason I try very hard to stress that you should be LEARNING how and why we trade and not just following trades.  We have running conversations about our trades, you can't go by the last thing that was said and take it as gospel (you can't take the gospel as gospel either, but that's another conversation).  

    I sold /ng at 3.17 before inventories. Anyone holding through?

    Submitted on 2017/02/09 at 9:52 am

    /NG/Burr, Ravi – Good call.  Holding is OK if you don't mind making or losing $1,000 per contract in 30 seconds – lots of fun.  Losing is a bit more likely though as a good run already happened in anticipation of the storm (as we predicted yesterday when it was 0.12 lower).

    Good morning!

    Not for my /CL short, WTF?  Huge spike at 4am, hitting $53.50 but, as I said yesterday, I'd rather DD than stop out.   /NG took a massive dive as the weather changed.  

    /NG/Burr – I don't really see $2.50 again as $1.60 was stupidly low and I think people see that now and, of course, exports have picked up and shale drilling is WAY off the highs so hard to see why we'd drop 20% from here but never say never in commodities.

    Submitted on 2017/02/13 at 6:33 am

    We took a long on /NG at $2.98 in the Seminar.

    /NG- Phil- is that the long for March contract?


    /NG/Ravii – Yes, front-month, quick trade.


    Is Phil still in the /NG front month trade from this morning?  Finished at lows of the day, 2.92.

    Futures/Craigs – Finished the day with 6 /TF short at 1,388.50 and I'm going to pull the plug even on those if they go back up (now 1,388) as I'm very tired of watching the market go up and having to keep rolling higher just to break even.   Otherwise, I have 4 /KCN7, of course and 4 /NG at $2.95 avg.

    /NG/Burr – Yes, 4 now at $2.95

    Submitted on 2017/02/14 at 10:35 am

    Oil back down and /NG climbing – who needs poker?


    /NG round tripped, chance to load up again at $2.90.

    /NG/Criags – Well I cashed at $2.95 and I'm back in at $2.90 so we'll see.  As I said at the seminar, I'm now looking more to establish my July longs.  /NGN7s are coming in at $3.20.

    Submitted on 2017/02/15 at 7:05 am

    I don't know about you guys but /NG just paid for my whole trip – up $5,000!  Obviously taking that and running at $2.97.

    As we discussed in the Seminar – this is a long-term CONVICTION play to $4 so if it's at $2.90 and it goes lower, I will look to add more at $2.80 and $2.60 and $2.50 though, hopefully, I won't get caught in something straight down and will be able to average out at lower prices.  In today's case, it popped up 0.07 so I took the money and ran because – even if I think it will be $4 at the end of the year, that's "only" 0.07 per month so ANY TIME I make even 0.03, that's as much as I should ever expect in a week!  

    So I get in, I get out, I wait for a pullback and get in again and, if it gets away from me – I'll find something else to trade (and we have the UNGs anyway).  If it gets away from me to the downside – I have the conviction to stick with it long-term and I'd LOVE to have 10 contracts with /NG at $2.50 when my average is $2.65ish because, ultimately, I think they'll end up at $4 and be up $100K BUT – again, I want to make this very clear – it is far more likely that I make $2,000 50 times this year than make $100K once, so I am THRILLED to take quick profits off the table.

    Speaking of quick profits – quick $250 per /TF contract at 1,390 pays for the Egg McMuffins!  

    Oil popping up over $53, daring us to short it again.  I think maybe after the inventory spike unless we hit $53.50 before. 

    Laughing/1020 – Well I have learned that sometimes I win and sometimes I lose but I never leave anything open that I wouldn't be happy to DD on if it spikes against me.  Again that goes back to only taking sides I have conviction on.

    MON/Rvn – No, when you sell a put, you promise to buy the stock at the strike price.  When you sell a call you promise to give the caller the stock at the strike price.  Right on 15,000 though – that would be a lot.  Seemed small vs Buffett numbers!  cheeky

    $300K/Savi – Don't rush into things.  Think in terms of a $250K portfolio with $500K in buying power and that means you should have 20 $25,000 allocation blocks which means you should look for trades that don't risk more than about $10,000 in your first round.  Smaller portions of our LTP picks, Butterfly picks or OOP picks should all be appropriate and adding 2 or 3 a month will fill your portfolio up by the end of they year while dollar-cost averaging into whatever crap the market throws at us.  

    Also, hopefully we'll have the hedge fund up and running at the end of the year!  

    VIX/Rustle – The $1 higher is probably a rollover to the March contracts.  The VIX isn't a thing you own, you are simply wagering on where it will be on a certain date.  The March VIX calls don't expire for 26 days so the bet is where the VIX will be on March 17th and really has little to do with what the VIX is doing on any given day.  The "VIX" you are looking at is an average basket of several months and the low Febs just dropped out of them, so the rest average higher.  However, if it trends higher – then more people will bet March 17th higher and THEN it will rise – as it's a parimutuel betting system (the bets you and other gamblers make is what determines the price and the index runners take a nice cut regardless of where it ends up).  

  11. Yup…conviction is key…

  12. Thanks Phil—-will take it slowly

  13. Phil- I agree.  Please re-read your mechanics description in your post again slowly! It is backward in stating the obligation.

  14. Phil-NG.. appreciate the look back. I see that although I saw a few on the list, I only focused on the last one to buy at 2.9 and completely forgot the DD strategy if it goes lower. I am still nursing the /RBs and am gun shy to the idea of sudden drops.  Thanks again

  15. Latch / Phil – $5000 on /NG.  

    Latch, unless you were long 7 to 8 contracts, you didn't walk away with $5000.  Phil knows these headlines always prick me the wrong way, but I understand it's media and promotion to get more subscribers.  It's his site and it's his job to grow his business AND make his subscribers $$$, which he is!

    The /NG play for me made $800.  The run from 2.90 to 2.98 is .08 which is $100/.01, or $800 gain on 1 contract.  Phil was probably playing 7-8 contracts at a time, which could account for the large gain, but the same %gain on the trade.

    This futures trading is just like investing in real estate.  The "deal of a lifetime" comes around almost every week.  Look at /GC today.  BANG off the 1220 line.  It literally came around

  16. today will mark 11 days in a row for dollar strength per DXY and gold don't care… silver either. Seems to be building into a risk off event to me, a safe haven trade. Just an observation, I don't pretend to understand it, any other ideas on the implication?

  17. Buur – NG – thanks , I was wondering about that as well — appreciate the breakdown – congrats on the win.  Curious — did you watch it fall below 2.9 and if so were you going to stop at some point?

  18. mkuc- gold --  I agree with your observation , as a mega gold supporter, I am biased but it looks to me that the increasing uncertainty with the FED doing the right thing on hikes and Trump/Geopolitics are making folks think a little more about holding some safe haven (s). I do think it will be tested soon, and would not be surprised that the animal spirits will prevail and drive gold back down.

  19. Thanks Phil. /CL, /NG, /KC seems to have paid for the vegas trip and some poker. 

  20. Phil- I re-read and now understand.  The second sentence confused me.  It needs another "you" after the word want.  Sorry!

  21. EIA #OOTT Crude: 9.527M Cushing: -0.702M Gasoline: 2.846M Distillates: -0.689M Imports: -1.340M

  22. Damn, missed EIA while watching Yellen – looks like a 9.5Mb increase and 2.8Mb /RB and 700K draw in distillates and we got a quick dip from $53.25, I had a short in at $53.30 (same as yesterday) but didn't fill.  

  23. Phill, since you started the morning charts, how often has the NYSE index kept pace with the others?  For the few years I've been with you (bull run), haven't been many times that I can remember.  I know you look for this metric as market movement confirmation, but is it still relevant?

  24. Phil / AAPL – Given the big increase to Buffet's ( Weschler / Combs) stake in AAPL, the potential tax changes and repatriation.   I think it may drive stock higher, and maybe start to form a higher base.  Does this change the positioning of the Short Calls?  I have the following Short Calls and am wondering if I should roll higher?  

    The short calls are all covered either by

    25X jan '19 100/130 BCS cost 10  ( 1/3 covered, about 65% profit) about 1/2 covered

    short Puts

    Stock 3K sh :

    Short 20X June 130 calls ( 5.3) now 9.1

    Short 20X June 135 calls ( 3.4) now 6.3

    Short 20X July  140 calls ( 4) now 5


    Thanks thanks for your help

  25. Here. We. Go. 

    Whee.  I'm selling out at 53.50 if we hit it.

  26. /CL/Phil- short filled after a spike.

  27. Mechanics/Rvn – I think you need to refresh, I had fixed after my first chop at that paragraph and I have:

    The mechanics of selling a put is that someone PAYS YOU $9,300 (in this case) in exchange for you promising to buy MON from them for $100 between now and Jan, 2019.  You can be forced, at the stockholder's discretion, any time they want, to spend $100,000 on Monsanto

    I know I did change that since my first time because I worded it wrong but I'm pretty sure that's how a put works. 

    /NG/Latch – If you are not VERY COMFORTABLE with the risk at the DD amount (and the one after that) then your strategy should be to employ very tight stops but then the trick is to get back in when it goes back over your line, not just stop out and quit because you lost $20 on a potential $500 winner.

    Stops, by the way, should reflect the REALISTIC fact that you may lose 5 or 10 times before winning so make sure your risk/reward is balanced.  With /NG, for example, we tested $2.90, failed and went higher and if your stop was at $2.898, you would have stopped out about 10 times as it tested the line, at $2.895, you would have lost $50 twice and at $2.89, you would have lost $100 once and in all 3 cases there was a run back over $2.90 that never retraced and made a quick 0.04 ($400). 

    You should always be looking at the chart histories (5min, hourly, daily) to see what kind of pullbacks to expect and make sure your stop expectations are realistic vs the rewards you hope to get.

    /NG/Burr – That's the amount we left off with in Vegas, so it was the official trade.  

    Meanwhile, /KC just popped but we have to be careful because it might be only because I mentioned it.

    Don't forget I'm syndicated so my posts go out around 9:30 to most outlets and they publish between 9:30 and 10:30 so, when I mention something that's thinly traded, you have to be suspicious of the initial moves.  

    Silver and gold/Mkucs – Well, I wouldn't say they don't care, I think it's the only thing keeping gold under $1,250 and Silver under $18 at the moment.  If the Dollar does fall back below 101 (for more than a few hours), I think they will find their legs again.  

    Speaking of shorts – $53.50 baby and I'm back short on 2 /CL to start. 

  28. GLD/SLV ratio is moving in the direction that gold is going to continue up IMHO.  

  29. Also, Big Oil no longer needs to disclose payments to foreign gov'ts…..Thank you very much.  This is huge!

  30. XLE is breaking back up now.  Long March $75 calls.  Just a few.

  31. EIA Petroleum Inventories

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories:
    • Crude +9.5M barrels vs. +3.51M consensus, +13.8M last week.
    • Gasoline +2.8M barrels vs. -0.75M consensus, -0.90M last week.
    • Distillates in-line vs. -0.70M consensus, +0.30M last week.

    You're very welcome, RS, hope you had a good time.  

    You/Rvn – Don't be sorry, if something is unclear I appreciate the editorial assistance.  I write these things in a big hurry pre-market while I'm doing other stuff so it's great to have people check my work, thanks!  

    I wonder if Trump purposely comes on while the Democratic Senators are speaking to Yellen to get the spotlight off them?  He said NOTHING – just that there's a "massive" tax plan in the works that will make all the CEO pals sitting with him very happy.  If I were the average American worker, that would terrify my but, then again, the average American worker is an idiot who voted for Trump…

    NYSE/Taihu – It can't keep pace with the others really because the others are basically a subset of the NYSE.  They all have to pull it along but yes, the much broader index HAS to confirm a move by joining the sub-indexes. 

    AAPL/Batman – Well, as we discussed in Vegas, "rolling" your short callers higher is nothing more than chasing the stock higher and paying all premium to speculate that your already winner will be a bigger winner.  Of course, it seems to me you have way over-shorted so WTF?  You have 3,000 long shares and 25 Bull calls spreads and you sold 60 short calls against.  No wonder you are worried, you were bearish on AAPL (and greedy) and now you are getting screwed.  

    So, you have 15 more shorts than you have covers so what's a better use of your money, spending $5 to roll the June $130s to the June $140s or spending $5 to roll the 2019 $130s to the $140s?  I'd spend the money on my asset and roll the short caller but I'd also buy enough spreads to cover fully.

    More to the point, I'd sell my 3,000 share of AAPL ($405,000) and buy 60 2019 $120 ($26)/$150 ($11.30) bull call spreads at $14.70 ($88,200) so now I have 2x (ish) upside coverage to the short positions and I can just roll them along.  If AAPL keeps going up, you can cash the $100 calls ($40 = $100,000) and then I'd buy 60 more $120s and roll the 25 short $130s up to the $150s (included in 25 of the 60 new covers) and see where that leave me.  If AAPL goes down, you will be thrilled with over $300,000 on the side to commit to short puts and lower longs. 

    LOL, those oil traders – what scamps!  Back to $53.25 already. 

    Foreign Governments/Pharm – Yes, it's amazing isn't it?  Get bullish on foreign leaders, I guess…

  32. shorted CL at 53.46 just got out for a quick $180 profit, might get back in if it bounces again

  33. OMER/forgot who has it  Yeehaw.  CLose above 11.59 today gets us 13 in short order.

  34. well…looks like i shoulda waited LOL

  35. /RB/Phil – reminder to go long before the long weekend.

  36. I don't post much – I have a small teeny tiny account and I have been lingering and learning for the better part of a year and a half.  I am a teacher by day so I can't be too active during most days. These past two months have been incredible in terms of the oil trades and positioning myself for the 'long-haul'.  It's really easy to read the headlines and the posts and get frustrated that you are not also making $5000 a week trading futures but I've finally figured out that slow and steady will pay off just fine…  and taking $100 profits on small futures trades adds up over time.  

    Thank you Phil – thank you all 

    Now if I could just eliminate all those losing 'hedge' trades…  Again – I am learning that in the past I have been 'over-hedged' looking to make a quick buck on a sudden downturn instead of using it as insurance.  Took me a year to actually learn that!

  37. Dow and Nasdaq Comp both almost at 80 RSI.

  38. Phil / AAPL = I also sold some the following mentioned them but did not detail them sorry about that….

    30X '18 Jan 90 Puts sold for 8 ( now 3.5)

    30X '17 June 115 Puts sold for 3.4 ( now .9)

    I assume the selling of shares and buying BCS would still be the same will the other part of your input change?

    Thanks again and apologies for not including the detail on the short puts to begin with.

  39. I can see why Trump wanted to interrupt Meeks and Capuano questioning Yellen, they called his whole economic policy into question and Yellen was smiling.  Times like this I wish I had a staff like the Daily Show to pull clips so we could highlight stuff.  

    Wheee on oil by the way, there's $500 PER CONTRACT (gotta make sure Burr doesn't get upset, even though I clearly said I had 2 shorts to start).   Still shorting those /TF – conviction there.  /SI popping already – was it something I said?  

    /RB/Ravi – Yes, we need a dip first but thanks.

    Oil/Jeffl – You are very welcome and those of us who make $5,000 a day, for the most part, started out with small accounts which we built up over the years – you are on a very good path.  Balance also very difficult to learn but priceless to master.  

    Image result for balance karate kid animated gif

    AAPL/Batman – Nothing wrong with short puts and no need to act but I'd buy them all back and wait for a dip to sell more, keeping my eye on the 2019 $110 puts, now $8 and you should get at least $11 (the price of the $120 puts) on any move down and you can sell 15 of those to replace 60 of the others.  In the broader context, it would be nice to offset the short calls with short puts but not worth it if your net is over $100 to the downside.

  40. What if the Dollar wasn't down 0.75 since the open?  

  41. Taxes re option sales/Phil – in today's post you commented that selling a LEAP put on Apple could result in a beneficial LTCG… I recently discussed this with TDA who I noticed was listing all of my short puts (even long ones) as short term (did not used to do that)… they informed me that tax code is -all- short option sales are SHORT TERM regardless of the duration held. Relevant tax instructions here:

    It is a very brief mention. Is there anyone professionally involved with the tax side of this that can comment further?

  42. Phil if not for my YM shorts I would be having a $5000 day. Short oil, long silver and gold on those nice dips earlier, held NG and KC overnight for big gains as well! If you popped KC, thanks very much. Hey even with YM it's a $3500 day.

  43. (Reuters) – Verizon Communications Inc (VZ.N) has tentatively reached a revised deal that would lower by about $250 million the price to acquire Yahoo Inc’s (YHOO.O) core internet business, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.<p>Verizon’s deal to buy Yahoo’s assets, including its digital advertising, …

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  46. NEW YORK (Reuters) – More U.S. homeowners fell behind on their mortgage payments in the final quarter of 2016, while fewer of them saw their loans go into foreclosure, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday.<p>Delinquencies on mortgages for one-to-four-unit homes increased to 4.80 percent …

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  49. Phil/GILD  Bot back my 2019 short 95 callers.  Opened for +7.25 and clsoed for .82.  Will resell when the stock rises.

  50. WASHINGTON — President Trump lashed out at the nation’s intelligence agencies again on Wednesday, accusing them of illegally leaking information to the news media, on a day of fresh disclosures about his dealings with Russia during and after the presidential campaign.<p>In a fusillade of angry, …

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  54. …each step disguised (perhaps not even intentionally) as a temporary emergency measure or associated with true patriotic allegiance or with real …

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  56. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky on Tuesday suggested he’s not sold on the need for investigations into the mounting controversies roiling President Donald Trump’s administration.<p>Paul said in a radio interview on the “Kilmeade and Friends” radio program Tuesday that he didn’t think it was prudent to …

  57. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign spokesman Tuesday night called the information in a New York Times report — which said intercepted phone calls showed that officials of Donald Trump’s campaign had repeated contacts with Russian intelligence officials — a “colossal scandal.”<p>Brian Fallon, the …

  58. Jaguar has announced a new in-car fuel payment feature that it says works with Apple Pay. The feature is only available at Shell stations starting in the UK, but Jaguar says it “will become available later this year in other markets.”<p>Rather than using a card at the pump, or waiting in the service …

  59. “Nothing she was ever accused of ? nothing ? comes close to this debacle.”<p>Keith Olbermann is calling out President Donald Trump for dealing with the North Korea missile test in full view of guests at a dining room at his Florida club.<p>“Trump slandered Hillary Clinton ? you could argue Trump beat …

  60. WASHINGTON (AP) — The Republican-led Senate has voted to block an Obama-era regulation that would prevent an estimated 75,000 people with mental disorders from being able to purchase a firearm.<p>The 57 to 43 vote to revoke the regulation now sends the measure to President Donald Trump, who is …

  61. Popular metrics of market valuation – such as price to forward earnings, price to book value, price to cash flow and cyclically adjusted price to earnings (CAPE) – indicate the U.S. stock market is overvalued by between 10 per cent and 60 per cent. With so many indicators flashing red, what is the …

  62. A $14 billion hedge fund firm is predicting pain for retail and other sectors.<p>Canyon Capital Advisors, a Los Angeles-based hedge fund set up Joshua Friedman and Mitchell Julis, said in a January letter to investors that a number of sectors would feel the effects of tightening financial …

  63. BEIJING – China’s top economic planner approved 18 large fixed asset investment projects with investment totalling 153.9 billion yuan ($22.3 billion) …

  64. Phil that's fine if it was official on /ng, I just didn't see 7 contract long in the blog. 

    It's just acct sizing. 

  65. Phil/IRBT

    I did a nice trade on a stock you used to like:

    Sept Bull Call 40/50 spread, with short call  @60. Stock is 55.54 now and overall spread cost $4.00

  66. Is there a webinar today for sure?

    If so I'll head home to watch it. Otherwise I still have 5mi to run. Pls lemme know. 

  67. Burr YES

  68. Webinar time!

    Taxes/Scott – I was not aware of that but you can fix that by incorporating your trading account (if big enough to be worth it) and treading the net gains/losses as income.  Also, electing trader status might help but you need a professional accountant who understands options to muddle through all this nonsense.  

    You're welcome Craigs!  

    GILD/Hanj – Almost signs of life.

    Thanks for the permission, Burr!  

    IRBT/Zten – We lost interest because they sold off the military division, which was the part we really liked.  Smart vacuum cleaners are not going to land them $1Bn DOD contracts.

  69. Phil/GILD  I will resell at 75.  Seriously easy channel to trade.

  70. GILD – someone had a good sale of 2000 March $65 puts this morning at .50.   that also means someone -bought- the other side. Who would do that, with this stock, down here?

  71. scottmi/PACB  Working 50k shares.  19k done at 5.26.  MAJOR support at 5.25.

  72. Hope the selling pressure on CL hits soon!

  73. For the future impaired…. any suggestion re SCO feb 24 weekly?

  74. SOS….more guns for people on that note above on the Senate rescinding the Social Security Admin mandate put in for mentally ill and gun control.  Along with those in KY that are overdosing at a phenomenal rate, we are just imposing population control.  Oh, and we can also experiment on people with drugs that don't work. 

    I have started taking MRKs failed Alzheimer's drug.  Why not?  They have lots of it from manufacturing, and it is compassionate use…my mind is blown!!!  

  75. Phil – thanks – I've sold the stock and am positioning the BCS.   On the puts sold the 115 puts as well

  76. PACB/Hanj – sounds good. I've still got orders in for Aug 2.5 calls but not going to chase it with those. no activity/market there at all.  Order in for shares, too, if a pullback comes.  In what way are you seeing support at 5.25?

  77. 5.25 – in just today's executions/trades?

  78. SODA – can't believe it. huge volume on this gap up too.

  79. SODA – did the same thing last earnings, too!

  80. /TF 1400!! I'm short x 2 here. That's aggressive for me. 

  81. Trying to catch up. Are you guys all done with oil? 

  82. jeff-TF are you on the call? we have an avg of 1399 or so

  83. Get out of the way…..zoom zoom.

  84. Latch, no. I was in the OR, can't participate in webinars as Wednesday is usually a big OR day for me. I check in periodically. Usually don't trade when I have cases but occasionally will dip my foot in when things are setting up for more likely profit. 

  85. Oh, and thanks Latch!

  86. EPA is toast….

  87. Pharm – More fuel for Humanity in two, then four years….

  88. Lol trading futures while in the OR, thats classic jeffdoc haha

  89. Jeff – Phil likes 53.30 short on /CL.  Not there yet.  

    He's short /TF and /NQ but not going the right way.

  90. Fuel…we have plenty of it right now with the inventory builds….but price will remain high when war breaks out in the ME due to 'settlements'.

  91. VIX continues to rise with the market….hummmmm…..

  92. Interesting that despite the selling pressure CL remains hovering around $53.  "They" are at work. 

  93. Well, VRX is going going going….

  94. Ouch!   Now short 15 /TF at 1,397 and down $4,400 at 1,402.  Short 1 /CL at $53.12, obviously looking for more (4) to $53.50ish if we get there.  /NQ shorts were a demo but still in 2 at 5,293, hoping 5,300 is rejected.  At 100 points a day on the Dow, we'll be at 30,000 before summer!

    GILD/Scott – If I'm buying GILD stock for $65 because I think it's a bottom and I'm selling 2019 $70 calls for $9.50 (15%ish + 10% to get there) and my only fear is that there will be more bad news before we go higher – it's worth 0.50 to sleep well and get past the danger zone. 

    SCO/JMD – Way, way too risky to pick.  At $33, the $33 calls are 0.60 and the calls are 0.70 so 5% on each side and, in the last two days, SCO has ranged about $1 so you are simply paying the premiums for what's most likely to happen but, if you get caught in the middle, the bookies win and you lose.  On the other hand, to be the bookie, you can collect $1.30 and HOPE (not a valid investing strategy) nothing happens – but it might and then you are down 50%, 100%, whatever, which is fine if this is one of 100 bets you are collecting premiums on as the statistics are likely to play out over time but most people tend to gamble on these things and the losses kill them long before they ever figure out how to recover.  

    That being said, if you wan to play oil short, the USO Feb $12 puts at 0.65 have almost no premium with USO at $11.36 so they make a nice proxy for a Futures short but, of course, that 0.65 can be completely wiped out in an instant.  In the Futures, you have a $4,500 margin so figure 70 contracts is $4,550 so equal risk and an 0.50 move in oil is about 1% and would make (or lose) $500 in the futures and 1% of $11.36 is 0.11 x 7,000 units is $770, so you'll get plenty of action.  

    The main difference is what you pay the broker because if he's charging you $1/contract, then it costs you $70 plus whatever bid/ask spread to get in an out is $140 + at least $300 is $340 so that's your handicap (at least) trading the options vs $5/contract in and out on the Futures.  THAT is why we play the Futures and don't day-trade options.  

    Blown/Pharm – It's not even a month into this nightmare!  

    You're welcome Batman – I know I feel better.  cheeky

    SODA/Scott – Didn't know they were still a thing.

    Someone must be buying those things. 

    Oil/Jeff – Not done, 1 short because I didn't get a good price.

    EPA/Pharm – Are they freakin' kidding?  Those 4 Senators should be impeached.  

  95. FIG – Softbank buyout agreed to.

  96. GNMX….Buying March 5s for 95c.  Might lose it all….but data is coming out.

  97. QUIK, my top pick for 2017, reports after the close.  They've already pre-announced, so no surprises there.  I do think it's likely that they announce a contract for supplying to a fitness wearable which I believe is Samsung.  If the stock sells off, I'll add to my already obscenely large position.  Looking for ramp up in revenues to start in 2nd & 3rd quarters.  Company is forecasting 50% or higher revenues for at least the next 3 years.

  98. ATHN/Hanj – another gap your style?

  99. QUIK    looks like you can buy March or May $2.00 calls pretty cheap

  100. GNMX is an mGluR modulator (glutamate in the brain is a stimulant at most sites.  A modulator does exactly that….brings the swings down or up depending upon the side of the 'wave.'  Think of your old physics sine wave… :)  Phase 1 data were very promising…. 

  101. BLCM….2017 top pick from Pharmboy!  :O

  102. GNMX/Pharm – are these guys legit, with real pipeline/potential? going by their stock issuance and company rename, etc, wonder if they guys are just a scam shop..

  103. FIG/Scott – That's a shame, we used to like them.

    GNMX/Pharm – Fun gamble.  


    QUIK/Albo – Well cheap enough at $113M market cap but still on pace for losing $16M a year is a -10% rate of return while you wait 3 years.  They have $17M so they either turn a profit with 4 Qs or you get diluted and I'd advise them to raise sooner than later.  In an up market like this that's in a forgiving mood – I'd raise $15M now for 10M shares, which would dilute you 15%.

    QUIK/Stock – How is paying a dime for 30-day calls that are 33% out of the money cheap?  

    GNMX/Pharm – Interesting.  I wonder if they can use it just to stimulate.  

    BLCM/Pharm – Yikes, what is it with "top trade ideas" on penny stocks that lose money?  So if you were going to advise someone to put 20% of their portfolio in one stock that had the best chance of making them great returns in 2017 – this would be your choice?  

    Year End 31st Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 TTM 2016E 2017E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 0.000 0.000 1.47 1.94 1.78 0.28 0.34 0.34 16.3 -42.3%
    Operating Profit $m 0.000 0.000 -6.27 -7.92 -57.8 -49.1 -65.9      
    Net Profit $m 0.000 0.000 -6.26 -7.97 -84.0 -48.5 -66.2 -69.2 -70.6  
    EPS Reported $ 0.000 0.000 -1.25 -1.54 -3.30 -1.84 -2.47      
    EPS Normalised $ 0.000 0.000 -1.25 -1.54 -1.63 -1.84 -2.47 -2.51 -2.42  
    EPS Growth %                    
    PE Ratio x           n/a n/a n/a n/a  
    PEG x           n/a n/a n/a n/a

  104. BLCM  looks very interesting.  Too bad the options are so thinly traded. 

  105. scottmi/PACB  If you look at the 1 minute for today and yesterday, it becomes pretty apparent that 5.25 is being supported.  Also, if you look at time and sales, thats where a trememdous amount of volume is taking place both days.  Also, I did a little test of 2000 shares to buy at 5.24 to see if there was a real seller – nope, almost all the trades today have been 100 share blocks, which are crossing which equal HFT.  

    ATHN not enough upside juice in them and I have plenty of work to do trying to get filled on the PACB.  I got 25000 today at 5.26 and will wait on the balance.  But yes, I see the gap fill on it.  Looks good.

  106. Geez Phil,  it's almost time to adjust our hedges again!

  107. Hedges/DC – At a certain point, your ridiculous portfolio profits become your hedge!  

  108. Phil….BLCM is in the ranks of KITE, BLUE and JUNO.  Yes, they lose money, yes they are a gamble, but I do think they have a good outcome in clinic.  Buying 100 shares is good for small accounts. Or as I have noted, and for new(er) memebers 1% or max of 5% of a portfolio on Biotechs is the way to go.  Big pharma picks are different. 

  109. PACB support/Hanj – thanks..

  110. Pharm – are you watching out for who Trump picks to run the FDA?  A commentator , Patrick Cox, wrote this…~~At this point, many think that the field has narrowed to Jim O’Neill or Scott Gottlieb. Both men have called for FDA reforms, but there are differences.
    Billionaire Peter Thiel (a tech insider and supporter of Trump) says O’Neill would bring a Silicon Valley style to the FDA. O’Neill has said that he would like to see a dramatic reduction in the time and costs for drugs to be approved. He’s also well-versed in anti-aging research. He knows that delaying the diseases of aging would cause healthcare costs to go down. O’Neill is viewed as the bigger disruptor.
    Gottlieb is less controversial, and he seems to be the pharmaceutical industry’s choice. An MD and former deputy commissioner of the FDA, he has worked in the biotech industry. He has also advised big pharma, including GlaxoSmithKline. (One theory about the candidates is that more radical reformers have been mentioned to reduce pharma resistance to Gottlieb.)

  111. Today is the largest $VIX move on an SPX up day since Apr 2004.


  112. Latch….Gottlieb is of course less controversial.  I don't particularly like the Silicon Valley way to play with health, as there are many many many more risks and flops in SV.  Yes, pharma is risk, but we must weigh safety in humans first trials and not just throw things in to find out….

  113. If not for my hedges (counting index futures shorts as a hedge) I would have ridiculous portfolio profits. Instead I have ok profits. Not complaining just can't believe how relentless this move up is. 


  115. Can anyone explain why it is important to kill the law prohibiting mentally ill people from buying guns? Seems like common sense to me. I would not want my autistic son to legally buy firearms. 

  116. craigs/gunlaw/  so the Prez can pack heat, just like those tough guys he watches on tv

  117. rexx –  That was funny!

  118. Some really good oil reading

    "The market continues to look past the poor current state of affairs, towards a brighter future that is expected to appear thanks to the OPEC/non-OPEC supply cuts," said Anthony Starkey, energy analysis manager at Platts Analytics, the forecasting and analytics unit of S&P Global Platts.

    "This optimism is certainly going to skew future expectations, however. A premature rise in oil prices is providing tailwinds to production that would otherwise have stayed offline had prices remained lower," he said.

    An S&P Global Platts survey found OPEC members achieved a 91% compliance rate in January, but some analysts are skeptical adherence will remain that high through June, when the current deal expires.

    Another difficulty facing market bulls is seasonal weakness, as refinery demand typically slows in January and February as refiners perform winter maintenance.


    Record-high U.S. gasoline inventories have also emerged as an obstacle standing in the way of a tighter oil market. They increased 2.846 million barrels in the week ended February 10 to 259.063 million barrels, exceeding the previous all-time high of 258.693 million barrels from February 2016.

    Analysts were looking for gasoline stocks to show a drawdown of 500,000 barrels last week. Stocks rose 686,000 barrels on average during the same reporting week from 2012-16, EIA data showed.




    Another difficulty facing market bulls is seasonal weakness, as refinery demand typically slows in January and February as refiners perform winter maintenance.


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  147. The White House senior counselor has a rough week, as speculation persists on her future in the administration<p>In the wake of her Nordstrom gaffe, Kellyanne Conway, the White House’s most reliable spokesperson, is losing yet another important cable news show on which she could appear.<p>“Morning Joe” …

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  149. Former labor secretary Robert Reich smacked down CNN’s Jeffrey Lord on Wednesday after the conservative commentator tried to make light of potential …

  150. This Makes No Sense

    Judy Shelton on currency manipulation.<p>In response to my post on a possible new approach to tackling currency manipulation, reader “Judy” comments by …

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  192. Hi Guys,

    A different play. I am looking at ORLY, one of Americas large spare part automotive supplier.

    The price runs at 270$, high but very steady. Cash flow and balance sheet looks good. Steady sales.

    They operate in two directions, 1. Supply spare part to dealers and private persons.

    2. Also gives service and install parts for you.

    They do not show a dividend, and due to the lofty price and no leaps, I start with two put plays.

    Sell an August 240 put for 6.30, allowing for a dip of 10%.

    TOS shows me a PM margin requirement of 1,500.00.

    For the more conservative members I would sell a BPS August 240/230 for 1.85

    TOS requires 355.00 in PM margin and your max. loss is 815.00 all based on one option play.

    The return based on margin requirement gives you for # 1  42% over the 6 month period.

    # 2 is 52%.

    As usual do your own research and do not bet the farm on it.

  193. Good morning!

    Nice little pullback in progress except oil, which is flying up to test $53.50 again and, of course, I love that short!  

    O'Neill/Latch – I'm not clear how "delaying the dieseases of aging" would cause health care costs to go down.  We used to die at 30 and there was no health care at all – very cheap.  No matter how long we live – we're going to die of something eventually and that will cost money and the cost of keeping our ancient asses alive will be substantial – especially if we have to keep replacing parts, which is extremely likely.

    Image result for human life expectancy history

    I don't know about the whole thing, I'm sick of TV, Music and Movies (most) already, if I get tired of books and theater it's going to be a very long eternity…

    Hedges/Craigs – Consistently disappointing until the one time you are thrilled with them, then back to being disappointing…  Despite the relentless rally knocking it down 20%, the STP is still our best-performing $100,000 starting portfolio (11/26/13), up $339,048 almost entirely on those hedges that "never" pay off – except the times they did.  As it stands now, it would make about $150,000 on a 10% correction (12% of the LTP), which is more money than our generally bullish OOP has made in over a year.

    5 short /CL at $53.40 avg at the moment.  Dollar 100.80 is helping, that's down 0.4%.  /KCN7 back over $1.50, hopefully that nonsense is over.  No news on oil that I see.  Oops, one not from Reuters and we know how those get planted:

    OPEC could extend Or deepen supply cut at May meeting if oil stocks too high: RTRS

    OPEC may be getting all the credit for reviving the oil market, but it had some help

    OPEC and its allies promised oil output cuts. Here's the reality

    If you chanted "drain the swamp," you've been played. Bigly. Trump lifts anti-corruption rules: "gift to oil lobby"

    US shale producers export record 1 million barrels of oil per day to world market as OPEC cuts back

    Kuwait boosts oil capacity to open the taps once OPEC's cuts expire

    What oil crisis? Arctic drilling off Norway heads for a record

    SNAP went lower than expected in valuation:

    Snap sets valuation at $19.5B-$22.2B

    • As it nears its landmark IPO, Snap Inc. has set a valuation for itself between $19.5B-$22.2B, WSJ reports.
    • The valuation range, which equates to $14 to $16 a share, is near the low end of the $20B-$25B the Snapchat parent company had earlier targeted.
    • The stock could be priced as soon as March 1 and begin trading the following day on the NYSE under the ticker "SNAP."

    Margins/Burr – That's very interesting timing.  

    ORLY/Yodi – Smart play, thanks.