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Thursday Thoughts – Tesla’s Emperor Musk Has No Clothes!

Our Tesla (TSLA) short is looking good!  

Despite releasing an earnings report that looks more like a sales brochure (and the CFO promptly quit, so he won't have to justify these numbers) it's pretty clear to investors that all is not well under the hood of the auto hobby shop.  You have to make much more than 8,000 vehicles a month to be considered an actual "manufacturer" – in 1914, with 13,000 employees, Ford (F) produced 300,000 Model Ts while TSLA's 13,058 employees have only managed to produce 75,000 cars (mostly the Model S) in their "amazingly automated" plant.  

You would think, 103 years after Ford invented the assembly line, that Tesla could do a little better but hey, give them a couple of more years and they might give the 1914 Model T a run for its money!  Given the shortfall in production (90,000 cars were promised for 2016) and the rapidly bleeding cash position, the departure of the CFO and the massive dilution of the shareholders (SCTY was given stock), we're very confident the $2,163 short we gave you yesterday will return the full $7,500 on March 17th (up 246% in less than 30 days) so you're welcome for that and happy St. Patrick's Day!  

Other than warning you not to buy the dip in TSLA, I've lost interest and am moving on.  Paulo Santos wrote a great article analyzing their earnings if you are interested, but we have bigger fish to fry now that we're done with Tesla – no sense beating a dead horse, even an electric one.  Just be aware that there are only 790 Super Charger sites in the US and that's 36% growth from last year – how do they get to 300,000 sales with that slow growth (and there are 114,533 gas stations)?

So, what else is going on in the World?  Well, we scored a nice win on Natural Gas Futures (/NGV7) from yesterday's live Trading Webinar with a nice $1,190 per contract gain for our Members – not bad for a half day's work, right?  

The weak Dollar is boosting all commodities this morning as it slumps back to 101, down 0.5% from yesterday so no surprise at all to see Gold (/YG), Silver (/SI) and even Oil (/CL) popping as well.  Silver Wheaton (SLW), as you know, is our 2017 Trade of the Year and we also have Barrick Gold (ABX) on the gold side and the Agriculture ETF (DBA) on the food side and the Energy ETF (XLE) on the oil and gas side.  

We also like Coffee (JO) and, as we expected, Kraft (KHC) just raised the price of coffee by 6% as they now agree with us that higher coffee prices are here to stay.  We took the money and ran on the Coffee Futures (/KC) yesterday but JO is more of a long-term play we're hanging on to while /KC Futures are what we play on the dips in our Live Member Chat Room.  

Today, we'll be watching for the EIA Petroleum Status report and we're itching to short oil (/CL) at $54.50 but maybe we'll test $55 first.  API reported a small 884,000 barrel draw in oil last night and, after a month of massive builds, that's a huge relief for oil bulls.  Gasoline was down 893,000 barrels and Distillates were down 4.3Mb so all good news but that makes expectations high so, at $55, I think the risk/reward favors taking a stab at the short side into the 11 am EIA announcement. 

Also, clearly the DOE has not yet dropped their 10Mb on the market (a mandated sale from the SPR) and they said late February and we're running out of month so next week's inventories are almost certainly going to show a big build again – such fun!  Remember, at PSW, we can only tell you what is going to happen and how to make money trading it – the rest is up to you!  

The Dollar is weak because Treasury is talking it down this morning, nothing Fundamental and Secretary Mnuchin says he wants to have tax reform in time for Congress' August recess but it's late February and they have no details other than it will be "yuge".   Of course, Trump supporters have already forgotten the President promised to unveil a "phenomenal" tax plan by the end of February but we can forgive the President, as it's so uncharacteristic of him to promise something and fail to deliver, right.

Of course the markets already rallied off that promise and today they will rally off Mnuchin's promise, even though it's the same promise delayed by 6 months because the markets are completely unhinged from reality at this point.  This is, of course, fantastic for our longs but it makes us feel silly for hedging when it never, ever, ever goes down.  

Today, in fact, will be the 10th consecutive record high for the Dow, breaking the 1987 record of records we tied yesterday at 9.  We're going to ignore the 0.05 drop in the Chicago Fed Index because it's a fact and facts are only someone's opinion, apparently but so are equity prices – do keep that in mind.  

Of course we have the March 15th Fed meeting to look forward to and I made the case in yesterday's Webinar that we can expect the Fed to raise rates at that meeting, which would be strong for the Dollar and SHOULD pull the markets in a bit but , as you can see from this chart, the market has been trained to expect MORE FREE MONEY at every meeting and, usually, they get it – so it will take more than just promises of higher rates to stop the bulls from BUYBUYBUYing on any dip.  

Well, oil is up to $54.90 as I write this so time to start shorting (we might not make $55) and time to go to work in the Chat Room – it's going to be an exciting day!  


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  1. Good Morning.

  2. Morning everyone!

    The webinar replay is now available!

  3. This guy has his finger in the nuclear codes:

    President Donald Trump’s former campaign staffers claim they cracked the code for tamping down his most inflammatory tweets, and they say the current West Wing staff would do well to take note.

    The key to keeping Trump’s Twitter habit under control, according to six former campaign officials, is to ensure that his personal media consumption includes a steady stream of praise. And when no such praise was to be found, staff would turn to friendly outlets to drum some up — and make sure it made its way to Trump’s desk.


  4. UGAZ – Up big.  Sold 1/2.  Moved stop up.

  5. The letter from Grantham is always good reading:

    Trump recognized this streak of strong opinion and played to it, clearly stating his intention to look after the forgotten workers.[...]

    The real challenge in promoting less inequality is to increase the share of GDP going to labor. Almost certainly, for any given increase in their share of GDP there must be a decline in the share going to corporate profits. How does the program of the new strong leader stack up on this one? He is surrounded by capitalists and billionaires who, to further advantage corporations and the super rich, are apparently prepared to wage war on the already sadly diminished regulations that defend ordinary people (and, yes, with no regulations corporations would make more money). The war would also include direct tax cuts for the rich and corporations, which would further increase the share of the pie going to corporations. This is a strategy that if successful in the long-run – despite its current market appeal – could not possibly be worse for the workers if he tried. Perhaps they, the workers, will feel betrayed as their share drops in order to further fatten corporations. Perhaps they will be bamboozled enough not to notice the betrayal. For bamboozlement of the working poor has become an art form in the last 30 years, with bamboozlement defined as an ability to persuade people to vote against their own economic interest for one reason or another. For example, 62% of voters do not like the sound of “death tax,” which in the form of estate tax is paid by only 1-2% of American families. An astonishing 35% of those earning less than $10,000 a year do not approve of increasing taxes on the rich. Does it get any richer than that? It has been called the Homer Simpson effect,6 whereby the poor voter reacts negatively to the idea of tax, which like death has little appeal, but does not get the point that a tax decrease for the rich has unpleasant implications for them. But, the gods willing, you probably can’t bamboozle enough of the people enough of the time. And the Reuters/Ipsos poll clearly shows that the worms have turned. The lack of class war or economic war in the US has always been a fiction, but it has been mostly hidden, and deliberately so, by the side so completely winning the undeclared war. Perhaps the 74% vote was indeed a public declaration that the war is now official.


    when you have some time it will give you a sense of how far we have fallen as party

  7. CL moving closer to $55

  8. Phil/TSLA  Amazing timing on TSLA – scary good.

  9. GNC  check out inside buying announced today.  $6M

  10. TSLA remember when we relentlessly shorted AMZN a few years back and lost mid to high six digits?

    I am very cautious about shorting Musk two decent qtrs and the stock is 400..what has been accomplished with SPACEX alone is astounding..Musk is FOS he's also alot smarter imho than Jeff B

  11. angel/FOS what does FOS mean?

  12. HANJ Plein de merde

    FULL OF >>>>>>

  13. I agree Angel – SpaceX is clearly an incredible success. It might be better to concentrate his efforts there where there is less competition. Clearly though, he got the electric car on the map in a big way and that is laudable, but I wish he would just chill a bit… He does look like a scammer.

  14. BTW, quick update for the people who donated to my wife GoFundMe project for her students to go to Paris. The story is getting some traction now and she was in the news last night on 6ABC in Phila.:

    Other news channel are also contacting her and they have had articles in the Phila. Inquirer and Courrier-Post locally. Some other big news outlet are interested as this is a good human story. if you have not contributed, go there -

    Half way through to their goal with a big donation on the way from a business. It's looking good now.

  15. he is spending thousand on custom suits and jackets to look like a thirft shop schlepper..and he has a oleaginous grey pallor but who in the world of business is a greater mind.. engineer marketer or schlep?

    PHHIL SAINTY Macron in a race for second place France out of euro along w Spain et al unless someone at the Bundesbank starts throwing the net payers a fish

  16. /siiiiiiiiiiiIIIIII…!!!!

    (Drops mike, gives finger to political commentary)

  17. Good morning!  

    Cramer was just talking about what a magnificent quarter TSLA had – obviously they are desperate to spin that thing.  Not helping ($262 and falling).  

    I have 2 short /CL at $54.80 avg at the moment.  

    /NGV7 already pulled back to $3.02 but maybe we get lucky and see $2.95 again, so no hurry there.

    Trump/StJ – Wow indeed.  Can't stop him from watching Fox though, that's anger central.  Grantham interesting but gives the people way too much credit.  I don't see things changing soon. 

    Woops, markets turning down in general now.  I have 10 /NQ shorts still, 5,350 but for the long run, not a day trade (though I'll take 5 off on a good dip).

    Democrats/Angel – Don't worry, there's lots of celebrities out there.  Maybe Baldwin can run against Trump in Trump makeup.  It would confuse Trump's base so much that he's probably win in a landslide!  

    TSLA/Hanj – Timing was simply the reality check of earnings.  

    GNC/Stock – I certainly agree with them.  

    AMZN/Angel – And then it worked out (though took way too long).  Yes, SpaceX is cool but NASA never made a profit either.  I don't want to be the anti-TSLA guy so I didn't get into it in the post but look at what Musk is doing – he isn't making money at TSLA, he's miles behind schedule with no realistic path to profitability so he moves the shells around by announcing more plants (even though they haven't proven the first one yet) and more projects because that let's MS extrapolate more and more future potential to distract people from the fact that there's not enough money on this planet to get him there.   

    Halfway/StJ – Congrats, a very worthy cause.  

    Ouch, there goes $260 on TSLA.  

  18. wow Alan Colmes has died hated him loved him

  19. STJ – Great news !

  20. Thursday's economic calendar

    Earnings season winds down

    • While it wasn't a blowout quarter by any stretch – earnings growth is tracking about 7.5%, according to Thomson Reuters, only a below-average 1.5% improvement on the estimate at the start of Q4.
    • But along with 5% revenue growth, the figure is nothing to sneeze at.
    • Further policy optimism on Wall Street and among corporate management has helped boost full-year estimates for 2017 as well.

    Jobless claims bounce back

    • Initial Jobless Claims +6K at 244K in-line with consensus, 238K prior (revised).
    • Continuing Claims -17K to 2.060M vs. 2.077M prior.

    January Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.05

    Trump: Government must do 'more with less'

    • Speaking alongside Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, President Trump announced plans to make the federal government more accountable, and that it must "do more with less."
    • He also said a tax reform plan was "well finalized", but will only be released after a successful repeal of the Affordable Care Act.
    • Regarding a new version of a travel ban – that has likely been postponed until next week.

    Tillerson, Kelly arrive in Mexico

    • "I want to make it clear… the Mexican government and the people of Mexico do not have to accept measures unilaterally imposed on a government by another government," Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray declared just hours before high profile talks with U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Department of Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly.
    • The bulk of the meetings, which will discuss security, immigration, trade and the border, will take place today.

    China remakes top economic team

    • President Xi is shaking up his economic team ahead of a major power shuffle later this year, as China's top banking regulator, the commerce minister and top economic-planning official all reach the age of government retirement.
    • The change is expected to be made public soon, sources told WSJ.
    • It comes as China wrestles with rising financial risks at home and increased friction with its trading partners.

    Bank of Korea holds rates

    • South Korea's central bank kept interest rates unchanged for an eighth straight month, opting for stability as it monitors uncertainties like North Korea and a political scandal at home.
    • "I don't think there is a large possibility of Korea being named a currency manipulator by the Treasury, although there is a possibility the U.S. may change its currency monitoring criteria," Governor Lee Ju-yeol said in a statement.

    IMF: Greece needs further overhauls

    • Greece must embrace further structural overhauls before the IMF can provide financial assistance, according to fund chief, Christine Lagarde.
    • Speaking in an interview with German TV, she said Athens could not have a "special deal" and there was still a "lot of work that needs to be done before we can actually submit [a proposed program] to the board of the IMF."
    • ETFs: GREK

    The future of Monte dei Paschi

    • Brussels and the ECB are at odds over the capital plans of Monte dei Paschi (OTCPK:BMDPY), throwing doubt on details of the state rescue of Italy's oldest and most troubled bank.
    • The two-month stand-off involves fundamental questions over the level of state support allowed, the amount of losses that creditors will suffer and the depth of restructuring needed to make the bank viable.

    Square +10.4% post-earnings; sell-side weighs in

    • Square (NYSE:SQ) "found another gear" in Q4, says BTIG's Mark Palmer, upgrading to Buy from Neutral, with a Street-high $20 price target (30% upside).
    • Evercore's Rayna Kumar lifts the price target to $17, noting further traction with big merchants should lead to robust GPV improvement. The Hold rating remains thanks to valuation.
    • Investors seem to be pleased with higher margins despite slower revenue growth, says SunTrust's Andrew Jeffrey. Margin expansion, however, may not be sustainable as low losses and positive volume retention are cyclical. He reiterates his Hold rating, though lifting the price target to $16 from $13.
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • Shares +10.4% premarket to $16.60.
    • Previously: Square beats by $0.05, beats on revenue (Feb. 22)

    Starwood Property Trust EPS in-line, misses on revenue

    • Starwood Property Trust (NYSE:STWD): Q4 EPS of $0.50 in-line.
    • Revenue of $184.48M (-0.9% Y/Y) misses by $34.67M.
    • Press Release

    Exxon wipes 3.3B barrels from proved reserves

    • Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) says its year-end 2016 proved reserves totaled 20B boe, a net reduction of 3.3B boe from 2015.
    • The reductions, which include the de-booking of the entire 3.5B barrels from the Kearl oil sands project in Canada, were partially offset by ~1B boe of reserves additions in the U.S., Kazakhstan, Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and Norway.
    • The revision had been expected but it amounts to the largest annual cut since at least the company's 1999 merger, easily exceeding the ~3% reduction during the height of the global financial crisis in 2008.
    • Under SEC rules, proved reserves can only include oil and gas fields that can be produced economically within the next five years. - So they are not projecting significantly higher oil prices for 5 years!  

    Sunoco LP EPS of -$6.32

    • Sunoco LP (NYSE:SUN): Q4 EPS of -$6.32 may not be comparable to consensus of $0.25.
    • Revenue of $4.31B (+5.6% Y/Y) beats by $130M.
    • Press Release

    Transocean beats on revenue

    • Transocean (NYSE:RIG): Q4 EPS of $0.63
    • Revenue of $974M (+7.5% Y/Y) beats by $164M.
    • Shares +0.8% PM.
    • Press Release

    Chesapeake Energy +2.5% after in-line Q4 results

    • Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK+2.5% premarket after Q4 earnings and revenues roughly matched analyst estimates.
    • CHK says Q4 average production of ~574.5K boe/day consisted of 90.4K bbls of oil, 2.562 bcf of natural gas and 57.1K bbls of natural gas liquids.
    • Combined production and G&A expenses during Q4 were $4.26/boe, 8% less than the year-ago quarter; Q4 gathering, processing and transportation expenses were $7.92/boe, a decrease of 30% Y/Y.
    • Year-end 2016 total oil and natural gas proved reserves were ~1.7B boe, up 14% Y/Y.
    • CHK is currently utilizing 17 drilling rigs across its operating areas, with plans to utilize an average of 16-18 rigs throughout the year and to spud and place in production a respective ~400 and ~450 gross operated wells during 2017.
    • CHK forecasts 2017 capex of $1.9B-$2.5B vs. ~$1.7B in 2016 and $3.6B in 2015.

    Vetting policies at SolarCity?

    • In dozens of cases over the last three years, SolarCity (NASDAQ:TSLA) has reached long-term lease agreements with homeowners shortly before or even after they defaulted on mortgages, NYT reports.
    • In at least 14 cases, the homeowners were already in default, or had other liens on the property, by the time SolarCity filed paperwork about the panels with the government.

    Vale enjoy huge swing to profit on higher iron ore prices

    • Vale (VALE +0.6%) opens higher as its Q4 results show a $525M net profit vs. an $8.57B net loss a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA more than tripling to $4.77B from $1.39B a year ago.
    • For the full year, Vale reported net profit of $3.98B, aided by higher prices and record iron ore production, a huge swing from a $12.13B loss in 2015.
    • The company sees the global iron ore price averaging above $80/metric ton in 2017, on the back of increasing steel demand and a smaller rise in new production entering the market, Executive Director of Ferrous Minerals Peter Poppinga says.
    • Bernstein's Paul Gait believes Vale has reached an inflection point, as "cash generation and rapid de-gearing is the agenda henceforth, and we believe that the positive results today should lend further weight to this argument."

    Glencore swings to profit, restores dividend, as commodity prices rise

    • Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNFOTCPK:GLNCY) reports a better than expected 18% increase in FY 2016 profit, helped by a rebound in raw material prices, and says it is well-placed financially for small acquisitions or a special dividend payout.
    • Glencore's 2016 EBITDA was $10.3B, with EBIT for the marketing division of $2.8B, up 14% Y/Y amid stronger demand, particularly from China, and drops in inventory levels; previous guidance for the division was $2.5B-$2.7B.
    • Net debt by year-end of 2016 was $15.5B, compared with $29.6B just18 months ago.
    • Glencore's board recommends a $0.07/share dividend, after promising late last year it would reinstate payouts.
    • The results mark an impressive turnaround for a miner that faced an investor revolt just 18 months ago, and shares are more than 5% higher in London trading.
    • Glencore sees the marketing division this year delivering $2.2B-$2.5B in profit, with the lower range reflecting the sale of 50% of Glencore Agriculture in December 2016.

    Uranium Resources +10% on favorable Columbus Basin lithium results

    • Uranium Energy (NASDAQ:URRE+9.9% premarket after reporting "favorable" results from the grid-based geochemical sampling of surface sediments across its lithium holdings at the Columbus Basin Project in Nevada.
    • URRE says average lithium concentration across a total of 348 grid sample locations was 100.2 ppm, and concentrations exceeded 200 ppm in 21 sample locations.
    • URRE says the new lithium data improves upon previous reconnaissance-scale sampling within the project.

  21. Tesla earnings call: CFO exit, Model 3 production and Mars

    • Elon Musk opens the earnings call by stating that CFO Jason Wheeler plans to leave Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to go into the public sector. Deepak Ahuja will return to the position he manned from August 2008 to November 2015.
    • On the key question of Model 3 production, Musk notes that the company has gained expertise in manufacturing and adds that the Model 3 is a "simpler" car to make than the S or X.
    • Musk brushes off a question about unionization at the Fremont plant, but delivers a strong answer to the threat of government EV subsidies being pulled back. He flips the script by suggesting that a lack of subsidies in the market could end up being a positive for Tesla.
    • There's no specific update on how many Model 3 reservations are on the books.
    • A question on Mars from a certain analyst from Morgan Stanley didn't add much to the mix.
    • Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) says it's on track for Model 3 "initial production" in July, with volume production to follow in September.
    • The company expects to deliver between 47K and 50K Model S and Model X vehicles in the first half of this year.
    • On the autonomous front, Tesla says all vehicles in production have the hardware required for full-on self-driving
    • Q4 automotive margin was reported at 22.0% on a non-GAAP basis (ex-ZEV credit revenue) vs. 25.0% in Q3
    • Solar roof launches are expected in the back half of this year.
    • Gigafactory growth is also on tap. "Later this year, we expect to finalize locations for Gigafactories 3, 4 and possibly 5 (Gigafactory 2 is the Tesla solar plant in New York)," updates Tesla.
    • Capital spending will be a topic of the conference call (hopefully). Tesla says it invested $522M in manufacturing capacity for the Model 3, Gigafactory 1 and customer support infrastructure. "Our capital expenditures came in below plan as we continue to negotiate more favorable payment terms," notes the company.
    • Tesla shareholder letter (.pdf)
    • Tesla earnings call webcast
    • TSLA +2.33% AH to $279.89.

    Sprouts Farmers Market beats by $0.01, beats on revenue

    • Sprouts Farmers Market (NASDAQ:SFM): Q4 EPS of $0.13 beats by $0.01.
    • Revenue of $985.7M (+6.0% Y/Y) beats by $11.1M.
    • Press Release

    A less crafty strategy suggested for Boston Beer

    • Susqsuehanna analyst Pablo Zuanic thinks Boston Beer needs to grow past its "craft mentality" to focus on its popular brands.
    • "We believe SAM owns a few iconic strong brands that are under-levered, and believe the company could do a lot better and a lot more by ramping up advertising and distribution on these few core brands," writes Zuanic.
    • "Blue Moon and other craft brands have also suffered from the 'capriciousness' of seasonals. We think SAM should focus more on its core brands, and gradually shift away from seasonals," he adds.
    • Shares of Boston Beer are lower on the day largely due to soft guidance (2017 EPS of $4.20-$6.20 vs. $6.57 consensus into the report).
    • Previously: Boston Beer beats by $0.53, beats on revenue (Feb. 22)

    Kohl's sets initial 2017 guidance

    • Comparable sales fell 2.2% at Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) in Q4.
    • "Sales results were weak for the quarter in total, driven by declines in brick and mortar traffic, and offset somewhat by strength in online demand," notes CEO Kevin Mansell.
    • Net income fell 15% to $252M during the quarter, although merchandise margin was higher.
    • Kohl's sets initial guidance for 2017, including an expectation for -2% to flat comparable sales growth and EPS of $3.50 to $3.80.
    • Previously: Kohl's beats by $0.11, misses on revenue (Feb. 23)
    • KSS +2.32% premarket to $42.75.

    L Brands roundup: Multi-year low amid soap, candles, bras sales pressure

    • L Brands (NYSE:LB) is down sharply in premarket action after the company's Q4 report and guidance rattles investors.
    • Wells Fargo and MKM Partners are both surprised at just how weak the L Brands guidance came in at, particular the early look at February comparable sales growth (-20% at VS).
    • Even bullish-leaning Cowen (Outperform, $65 PT) is a bit worried over the L Brands report, noting that soft mall traffic is ravaging soap and candles sales.
    • Jefferies dropped its price target on LB to $40. "We continue to believe the company will struggle through FY'18, forecasting down EPS into the foreseeable future. We see these headwinds persisting LT, as many appear structural in nature," writes analyst Randal Konik.
    • Instinet has a bra take on LB, noting that a higher mix of sports bras and bralettes is pinching margins.
    • LB -13.06% premarket to $50.53. Shares look likely to open at a multi-year low.

    Trouble at Victoria's Secret agitates mall sector

    • Dismal guidance from L Brands (LB -15.7%) is taking shares of other mall retailers lower. Kohl's (KSS -0.1%) also delivered an uninspiring Q4 earnings report, although it topped estimates.
    • While a surprising 20% drop in comparable sales for the once-resilient Victoria's Secret was alarming, the broader theme impacting the sector is that L Brands is having trouble selling soap, candles and higher-margin bras amid lower mall traffic.
    • Notable decliners include Urban Outfitters (URBN -2.5%), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO -2.3%), Nordstrom (JWN -2.7%), Stein Mart (SMRT -1.6%), Buckle (BKE -2.8%), Tilly's (TLYS -1.4%), J.C. Penney (JCP -2.1%), Abercrombia & Fitch (ANF -2%), Gap (GPS -1.7%), Tailored Brands (TLRD -0.4%) and Express (EXPR -2.2%).
    • Previously: Kohl's sets initial 2017 guidance (Feb. 23)
    • Previously: Weakness at Victoria's Secret impacts L Brands (Feb. 22)
    • Previously: L Brands roundup: Multi-year low amid soap, candles, bras sales pressure (Feb. 23)

    Boston Scientific recalls Lotus Valves due to possible manufacturing defect; shares slump 7%

    • Boston Scientific (BSX -6.7%) slumps on increased volume in response to its announcement that it will voluntarily recall all Lotus Valve devices, including Lotus with Depth Guard, from global commercial and clinical sites due to reports of a premature release of a pin connecting the valve to the delivery system. It says the problem is most likely caused by excess tension in the pin mechanism introduced during the manufacturing process.
    • The company expects to have the devices back on the market in Europe and other regions in Q4, the same time it plans to file a PMA in the U.S. If all goes well, market launch will commence in mid-2018.

    Fitbit +0.34%; Q4 2016 results and outlook for Q1 off, FY 2017 forecasts roughly in line

    • Q4 2016 results – revenue $574M (-19.3% Y/Y, $2.04M below estimates), EPS -$0.56 ($0.06 below estimates), gross margin 22.4%, operating expenses 49.6% of revenue
    • Geographic revenues – U.S. -28%, EMEA +58%, APAC -56%, Other Americas -12%
    • Major product contribution – Fitbit Charge 2, Alta, Fitbit Blaze and Fitbit Flex 2 comprised 96% of revenue.
    • Q1 2017 projections – revenue $270M-$290M (consensus $307.46), EPS -$0.18 to -$0.20 (consensus -$0.15), tax rate 50%, stock-based compensation $23M-$25M
    • FY 2017 projections – revenue $1.5B-$1.7B (consensus $1.59B), EPS -$0.44 to -$0.22 (consensus -$0.32), gross margin 42.5%-44%, tax rate 50%, stock-based compensation expense $100M-$110M
    • Fitbit co-founder and CEO James Park: "Our ten-year history of building this category, coupled with our powerful brand and engaged global community gives us confidence we are making the right investments to support our vision and drive long-term success. We will leverage our leadership position, recently acquired talent and IP, and the valuable data we collect to improve demand and continue to set the pace of innovation for the industry through more personalized experiences, deeper insights and guidance, expansion into new categories and deeper integration within the healthcare system."
    • After hours – (NYSE:FIT) $5.90
    • Supplemental historical financial information / conference call / press release / presentation / 8-K
    • Previously (January 30, 2017): Fitbit -11.8%; Q4 2016 preliminary results, FY 2017 outlook significantly below expectations

    Nvidia downgraded to Underperform at BMO Capital Markets; -3.7% premarket

    • From Market Perform, analyst Ambrish Srivastava considers overvaluation at present levels.
    • Further: "We believe that the perfect storm in fundamentals that drove the rarely seen magnitude of earnings upside is ebbing. We also see the competitive environment changing, and do not believe the shares at current valuations are pricing in any such change."
    • Price target decreased from $100 to $85.
    • Premarket – (NASDAQ:NVDA) $106.70
    • Yesterday (February 22, 2017): Nvidia -2.4% after hours, downgraded from Buy to Reduce at Instinet

    New Intel chip could squeeze Qualcomm out of new iPhones – Susquehanna

    • via Notable Calls
    • Intel's new CDMA chip significantly increases the odds it will win the sole modem slot in upcoming iPhones, says Susquehanna – a potential blow to Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), says the team, which estimates the company currently supplies 50-70% of iPhone 7 modems.
    • It could result in a $1B-$1.4B revenue hit.
    • QCOM -0.25% premarket

    HP Q1 2017 over expectations, Q2 outlook midpoint below; +0.49%

    • Q1 2017 results – revenue $12.7B (+3.7% Y/Y, $850M above estimates), EPS $0.38 ($0.01 above estimates), net cash provided by operating activities $0.8B, repurchases and dividends $613M
    • Segments – Personal Systems (net revenue +10% Y/Y, commercial net revenue +7%, consumer net revenue +15%, total units +8%, notebook units +12%, desktops units unchanged), Printing (net revenue -3%, total hardware units +6%, commercial hardware units +2%, consumer hardware units +7%, supplies net revenue -3%)
    • Q2 projections – EPS $0.37-$0.40 (consensus $0.39)
    • HP president and CEO Dion Weisler: "In Q1, we delivered earnings at the high end of our outlook range with strong free cash flow, driven by relentless execution and innovation. We are confident in our ability to manage our business and deliver our FY17 financial commitments."
    • After hours – (NYSE:HPQ) $16.28
    • Conference call
    • Press release
    • 8-K

    CBS dominates prime-time broadcast ratings again

    • CBS again shined in prime-time ratings, locking up 16 of the top 20 program spots in Nielsen numbers and running away with the week in viewers.
    • The network's average 7.55M viewers far outpaced NBC (NASDAQ:CMCSA), which averaged 4.61M. Those two were followed by ABC (NYSE:DIS), with 4.5M; Fox (FOXFOXA) with 2.87M, and Univision (Pending:UVN) and Telemundo with 1.89M and 1.39M respectively.
    • Only The Walking Dead (NASDAQ:AMCX) cracked the CBS hold on the top eight programs. The zombie hit drew 11.08M for third place among shows. The CBS bloc around it: NCIS, 15.29M; The Big Bang Theory, 13.51M; No. 4 show Bull, 10.64M; 60 Minutes, 10.35M; NCIS: New Orleans, 10.32M; Blue Bloods, 10.14M; and Hawaii Five-O, 9.62M.
    • NBC hit This is Us settled in at No. 9 with 9.04M, ahead of another CBS drama, NCIS: Los Angeles.
    • On cable, Fox News continued to rule, with 2.72M average viewers in prime time, ahead of TNT (NYSE:TWX) with 2.92M; HGTV (NYSE:SNI) with 1.57M; and MSNBC with 1.55M.

  22. Great STJ—-hope she gets the full funding

  23. Alan Colmes, it seems as though he's still posting to twitter from beyond the grave. Maybe thats not his real twitter?

  24. StJ/  Voulez-vous un chaperone?

  25. Stockbern – Insider buying in GNC is encouraging. :-)

  26. EIA Natural Gas Inventory-89 Bcf vs. -85 Bcf consensus, -114 Bcf last week.

    U.S. #natgas inventories on 2/17/2017 at 2,356 Bcf; DOWN 89 Bcf from week ago:

    Working #natgas in storage 156 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,200 Bcf

    Futures +2.41% to $2.766.


  27. St j/ bamboozle .  Yes.  Their 'secret' to winning the class war is to distract and make half the people think it is a race war. Guys in Mar-el-Largo say "look at that welfare queen" while skimming millions out of credit cards and auto loans and ..and…

  28. Chaperone / Rexx – That's covered, thanks!

  29. Big wheeee on /NQ – If TSLA is overvalued, what else is?  That was the premise of the Nasdaq shorts.  Too funny that they ran higher first.  

    I like /TF short to follow below the 20,750 line.  Fresh horses…  

    Dollar doing it's best to save the indexes at 100.85. 

  30. Phil/market down

    IT'S ABOUT TIME…..but will it last, or just be a day event?

  31. /NGV7  – got 2 long at 2.95

  32. That's +$5K on /NQ so I'm done with those.  Waiting to see if we bounce off 5,325 but switching to /YM shorts now (tight stops above).  

    Trump talking about "saving" 700 jobs, 800 jobs…  He doesn't understand he's the President of the United States of America, where 10,000 people a day are hired and fired.  He doesn't get the big picture.  Same goes with $700M saved on the $1Tn Lockheed contract – it's 0.07%, he could have made more money by changing the way they round off their charges.  

    EIA better than API – so much for oil shorts for now.

    Crude futures rise post inventory data

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories:
    • Crude +0.6M barrels vs. +3.48M consensus, +9.53M last week.
    • Gasoline -2.6M barrels vs. -0.89M consensus, +2.85M last week.
    • Distillates -4.9M vs. -0.48M consensus, -0.69M last week.
    • Futures +1.98% to $54.65.

  33. Phil – What do you mean "Better"?  EIA had a build and API had a draw.  So that would mean the oil shorts are the better trade than longs from my point of view.  But you say "so much for oil shorts", as if you believe it isn't good to short now.


  34. Latch – How did you get that price today?  My low on the day is 2.97 off the drop from 3.08.  

  35. I still like oil short for next week's SPR release, so I'm keeping 2 short /CL

    Trump's problem seems to be that he thinks in terms of his own business and is impressed by $1Bn or 700 jobs.  People who have government experience are used to much bigger numbers.  

    Down/DC – What happens tomorrow, I have no idea.  Over the next few months though, we need a correction badly.  

    /NGV7/Latch – Right on target, good job!  

    Better/Burr – It's a net draw of about 7Mb, that's what matters.  Focusing on the oil number is always a mistake, it's the net that matters but still, we don't know the details – could just be more exports or refinery shutdowns, less exports.   Will be a long, long time before they reverse the last 4 reports and next week should be another build.  

    Ouch on /NQ – I'm missing my shorts already!  

  36. Thanks Phil. 

    Good to see some life in the TZA March 18 calls -  up $370  but overall down -$1.3k. Hope to get out even or should I roll them?

  37. SPWR recovering nicely! 

  38. Burr = NGV7 hit 2.985 , it went even below 2.98.

  39. Trump is impressed…by anybody who trusts him with any asset.  Look what he did to AC.

  40. well give trump this much credit there never would have been any revival of atlantic city were it not for him and other casino owners and operators…I am impressed with his busness acumen; know pople who have done business with him and were very impressed i guess he's only a dick on tv

    look at the dow ho humming

  41. Latch, right.  So how did you get 2.950?  My low of the day is 2.971, or 21bps higher than 2.95.

  42. ah..too many friggin decimals.  2.995… is my avg.  Actually just got out of them again. at 3.014.

  43. Ty.  If you got 2.95 today I want your broker!

  44. Copper taking a dumper today.

    Phil want to do that Wheat trade, or identify price levels?

  45. WYNN – Pulling back nicely.  Trading just above the 50dMA. 

  46. TZA/Latch – In the STP we rolled TZA out to Jan $20 (100)/40 (50) bull call spreads with 40 short $20 puts.  In the OOP we left the short Mar $22 calls and bought the July $15/19 bull call spreads to cover.  At the moment, they are still net $1.65.  We also have the TZA Jan $15/35 bull call spread in the OOP and that's up slightly at net $3.30.

    Remember, these are INSURANCE policies.  They WILL lose money and every quarter we salvage what we can and pay what it costs to insure the next quarter.  The insurance has a deductible – you will not get "paid off" for a minor correction – these hedges protect you from 10% drops that would badly damage your portfolio, not 1% dips.  

    SPWR/StJ – I love it when a plan comes together.  Despite constant FU's, we have turned that into a good-sized position with 30 2019 $5/10 bull call spreads and 20 short 2019 $7 puts in the OOP for a nice $15,000 potential (net $10,000 after covering losses, which were -$5,000 on the original spread and -$1,000 on the current position, which would be erased and turn into +$15K if all goes well). In the OOP, we simply sold 30 2019 $10 puts for $4.75 ($14,250) and we still have $11,775 to gain on those.  F them indeed!  

    Trump/Angel – Don't know what guys you know but people hate him in NY.  Very few people willing to partner with him.  Those casinos began in 1978 with Resorts, Caesar's, Bally's, Harrah's, the Golden Nugget open by 1980, Claridge and Tropicana opened in 81.  In 84 Trump took over the failing Playboy Club and it wasn't until 1990 that he built his first actual Hotel (Taj Mahal) which never made money and bled away all the investors cash and market the downturn in AC.  No one else built a hotel after that until Borgata in 2003 – in a totally different part of town, far away from the mess around the boardwalk.  I simply don't get the mythology around this guy other than his relentless self-promotion (he also goes through PR firms every couple of years).  

    $2.95/Guys – Patience!  

    Wheat/Burr – Well support is at 400 but 450 was where we were in the Webinar so I'd play that with stops below and then back in at 450 and keep in mind it's a long cycle play, not a daytrade and also I'm not in it, I'm not following it – it was just a good idea based on that crop report but I don't have time to start watching another sector. 

    WYNN/Albo – Old faithful in that channel.

  47. spwr was never in the FU portfolio ;-)

  48. TASR   quietly enhancing their camera systems.  There is some juicy option premium in the 2019's

  49. Former CFO at Marriot Partner at Bass Bros. CEO of KLM hard nosed guys but as I said they were impressed with him. You just can't make billions and build a successful brand being a total cick.

    Its too bad Atlantic City can't be rehabbed but with Christie in office not happening maybe one day. Trump employs people I don't like him but I appreciate his success. 

    You have some connection to Christie? I remember somehting about your wife and his and Cantor Fitz?

  50. Concerning wheat. Know several land owners in Iowa who lease there land to wheat growers annually. Several of the leaseholders have notified property owners that they will not be renewing leases when they come up. Mexican legislature discussing bills to outlaw the purchase of US wheat which is adversely affecting prices. We are a big exporter to Mexico and leaseholder's are having trouble selling crops south of the border with resulting drop in prices. 

  51. I am sure some spinning now TSLA is a bargain at 260 buy buy buy

  52. A lot of Iowa property owners really pissed at Trump  amid all the chest thumping on both sides of the border.

  53. Yodi BUY TESLA! (kidding) what do you think of Martin Shulz?

  54. Going long wheat would be a contradiction for me as I'm on a Keto diet, but $$$ don't care. 

  55. Burrb I like those diets ever hear of timothy ferris?

    Are oyu doing a cleanse as well?

  56. Angel NO POLITICS but I am not sure what to make out of him. See I friend DT full of BS

  57. 2017 market definitions:

    -0.10% dip

    -0.20% pullback

    -0.50% correction

    -1% panicked selling


    -5% bear market

  58. DE starting to show some more realistic colors but still much to high CAT following suite

  59. SPWR/Jabob – Never?  

    TASR/Stock – Coming down a bit and we do love them long-term.  They are not in the OOP but the LTP has 2019 $20/30 bull call spreads with short $20 puts and short Jan $22 calls but I think we were stuck with those and were using them for protection.  

    Kind of in limbo here but if they come back to $22, it's a BUYBUYBUY so should be added to the Watch List. 

    Trump/Angel – Well, here's 3,500 people who would disagree.  Talk to the Malkins or Pritkers or anyone at Carlyle.  Anyway, I spent time in AC cleaning up his mess – no friends down there at all.  As to our beloved Governor, we had a short bromance when he was first elected but I was disgusted by him within weeks with all the crony BS and especially the ransacking of our tunnel fund.  

    Wheat/Den – Our logic is based on all the farmers who are not growing wheat now.  That's more of the same and, eventually, you get shortages.  

  60. PM smoke coming out of both ears 106.22 and smoking

  61. Angel – I don't know who you know, but I know 5 people who did business with Trump and all say he is a crook and liar. He tried to renegotiate after work was done, saying take it or leave it and they had to take him to court in two cases, the other three got cheated out of money owed by him filing bankruptcy in three separate businesses. The guy has lost more investor money than anybody knows which is why he refuses to release his taxes. They must paint a very ugly messy picture.

  62. SLCA 11.5% down !!!

  63. well enough of trump my point was there are those that like him who have done business with him and i am sure the Bk of his operating companies screwed a lot of subs…in the meantime he has aspergers pretty sure..mild or not it's an affective issue

    market feels heavy remember the old tell "never short a dull market"

  64. I've got 2 /YM short at 20765 now. Took off /NQ shorts even this morning. 

  65. Trump/ ang – he is a classic NYC developer/conman.  He says he's a billionaire but gives no proof other than he says he's a billionaire.

    Romney at least offered some proof of his competence; though he was really vague, since his cash all came from destroying American jobs and creating overseas jobs.

    The whole notion that we need a "businessman" to fix things is bs ladeled on us for fifty years by,,,business guys…who just want to crush unions for themselves and their country club buddies.

    Was Lincoln a businessman? Washington (well yes but a barely solvent plantation owner). Was FDR a businessman? Or JFK? Or Nixon? No.  No. No.  (LBJ was, but his money was from a shakedown).

  66. FOSL/Phil – taken some hits lately, but should find a floor somewhere.. Do you have a value point for them?

  67. USO / Phil – Do you like any USO option plays for next week's expected SPR release?  I dont have the stomach to hold a futures position that long.  Thanks

  68. BSX – heck of a takedown on recall story overnight, down to 50ma, with huge volume buying back nice recovery first thing this morning. . pretty touchy market? who made the buy(s)?

  69. REXX hope for all of our sakes you are incorrect..I am would guess he's a billionaire; but  Ill let Mike Bloomberg and Forbes worry about that..people are very negative lately check this out it will make you smile

  70. In defense of Asperger's, I don't think Trump is on the autism spectrum. I'll post some compelling theories on what is wrong with him in The Corner. 

  71. TEX/Phil – guided lower for 2017. Mining not going to support them anymore? Would you make a short play with them?

  72. Ilene i certainly wasn't casting a negative light on aspergers I spent 20 years of my career promoting Psychiatric care..he is clinically probably a narcissist but that strange affect is over the top as is his high level linear functionality

    and what's the corner or should i ask where

    thank you it took having trump involved to have a single direct exchange with you in 8 years  but I love your work

    ( iknow you're the power behind the throne ;) )

  73. Phil   TSLA  Thanks. Bot Mar 275 puts yesterday at 13.10,sld today at 20.20. Plus $3500 Wheeeeee

  74. Any thoughts on GME,  I just sold some puts  $20 / 3.05  19' ..  Wondering if I should add a BCS, looking at the 20(7.22)/27(3.72) spread..

  75. CLF down 10% today. Quick glance did not show any significant news. Has anyone seen anything?

  76. Rossmanmd – I saw this.

    Weakness in the materials sector (CLF down 8%) following report suggesting potential delay in President Trump's infrastructure plan.

  77. It is at times like these, that one really wishes that John Hussman would be right for once:

    "The relationship between the economy and the stock market is a study in contradiction. It’s precisely when economic optimism is strongest, when caution is seen as misguided, and when bullish enthusiasm is most exuberant, that the stock market reaches its speculative apex and becomes most vulnerable to collapse. It’s precisely when economic pessimism is most dismal, when hope is set aside, and when bearish consensus is most dire, that market plumbs its deepest lows and carries the greatest potential for future returns."

    "We continue to view recent market action as the likely final blowoff of one of the most extreme speculative episodes in U.S. history. The valuation measures we identify as most tightly correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns in market cycles across history range about 160% above (2.6 times) their historical norms, and more than 5 times the levels observed at points of secular undervaluation such as 1949 and 1982. This implies that a rather run-of-the-mill retreat to historical norms would now be associated with an expected market loss of about -60%, while a retreat even to a level still 25% above historical norms would be associated with a market loss exceeding -50%. That range of prospective market losses between -50% and -60% is in fact our expectation over the completion of the current market cycle, and neither would take reliable equity valuations below their long-term historical norms."

    Essentially, Hussman is saying that he doesn't understand why the s**t is not hitting the fan but when it does happen he will be there to tell us 'I told you so!'

    I used to be long and strong – now I am just short and weak :)

  78. Phil –  With the gas draws, do you like /RB long into Friday?  

    I was thinking long off 1.52 for just a quick hit.

  79. SLCA/Yodi – That's not a good sign for construction.  

    Aspergers/Angel – Wow, playing the pity card?  Doesn't say much about his empathy then because I worked with Autism Speaks and, as with many things, Trump promised support but his idea of support ended up being showing up at the fundraiser and claiming that his appearance was worth $50-100K – so there was no need for him to write a check.  He then took credit for half the guests there – even though they were long-connected to the charity.  As far as I know, his foundation has given a grand total of $50,000 and I think that money was from The Apprentice but, to hear him talk about it, he's a major backer.  Yet another reason no one will ever see his tax returns.  

    Washington/Rexx – Not at all broke.  Only Kennedy had more money than Washington ($525M adjusted), who had old English money – the kind that never goes away!   Hoover was a "businessman" President – worst thing that ever happened to this country because Governments are not businesses – they are supposed to run for the benefit of the voters, who each have an equal "share" – not for the benefit of whoever has the most money on the table.  

    FOSL/Scott – I don't understand why people even wear watches anymore.  I think they are probably right-priced in the high teens but not in the least bit attractive to me as I do not see growth and, more likely, they will waste money trying to make smart watches or fit watches or whatever.

    Image result for fossil earnings

    Image result for fossil earnings

    USO/Email – Well, if you want to play USO you need to avoid premium but, as previously noted this week, the Futures are a far more efficient way to play.  USO is $11.52 and the $12.50 puts are $1.05 so 0.07 premium is very fair but let's say oil falls 10% to $50, you would get $4,500 on a single futures contract but USO would only drop $1.15 and even if you make all $1.15 of that (you won't) that's only $1,150 per $1,050 you lay out.  So it would take 40 contracts to match what you'd get with one Futures contracts and it's the same $4,200 you'd be laying out in margin and if oil goes up 10%, you lose the same $4,500 though the advantage is that the options will lose maybe $3,000 instead.   Either way, I'd paper trade the other of whichever you choose so you can see what you'll like for next time. 

    BSX/Scott – Seems overdone to me but already reversing.  The valves that are in are not the problem, it's an installation issue that causes too many unit failures but the ones that are in are fine – that's why it reversed so quickly, the actual facts are nowhere near as bad as the headline sounded.  

    TEX/Scott – Kind of like SLCA's problem.  As you may have noticed, I am very shy about shorting things in this market.  If they do something about infrastructure, TEX should do well so wouldn't even be on my list.  

    Power/Angel – She's my Cirsei!  

    Related image

    TSLA/490 – Nice job, congrats!  

    GME/01 – They make $3.75 per $25 share.  I would have thought Apps and On-line downloads would kill them but kids still need gear and they like to hang out and talk games in the stores and, like my daughters, they seem to feel it's impolite to hang out in a store and not buy something.  They also pay a fat dividend of $1.48 (5.6%) so you might want to consider either owning the stock ($25.78) and selling the 2019 $23 calls for $5.60 (net $20.28 less $3.05 on the puts is net $17.23 so the dividend is 8.5% and, if called away at $23, that's another $5.77 (33.4%) so about 20% a year return from owning the stock, selling the $20 puts and $23 calls and your break-even is $18.61, 28% below the current price.  

    In fact, let's officially add 1,000 of those to the LTP as it is a nice, safe way to make 20%.  Officially:

    • Buy 1,000 GME at $25.77 ($25,770)
    • Sell 10 GME 2019 $23 calls for $5.60 ($5,600) 
    • Sell 10 GME 2019 $20 puts for $3.05 ($3,050) 

    That's net $17,120 and, if assigned 1,000 more at $20, our average would be $18.56 for 2,000 ($37,120) – so that's our max loss and max commitment.  Meanwhile, we collect $1,480 against our $17,120 cash outlay in dividends (8.6%) and, if we get called away at $23 ($23,000) in two years, that's ($23,000 + $1,480 + $1,480) = $25,960 – $17,120 = $8,840 profit (51.6%) so 20.8% per year profit. 

    The key to these dividend plays is to just do that steadily for 5 cycles (10 years) and by then you will have gotten your entire investment back but you still have the stock and that's still generating $1,480 (which tends to go up with inflation) and then you put the money into the next cycle and 10 years later you have another free stock and you are collecting $2,960 and 20 years later you are throwing off $5,920 in dividends against your original $17,120 investment but you have $68,000 worth of stocks paying out those dividends.

    That's it – that's how you retire rich!  Now get started!  

  80. GME – you mean sell $23 calls?

  81. CLF/Ross – Nope, just profit taking on market weakness and no solid infrastructure plan.  Mexico talking retaliation already is not good for them either.  X down 8% too.  

    Hussman/Winston – Not much logic can be applied to the market.  Have I mentioned how much I like CASH!!! lately?  

    /RB/Burr – I only like /RB long if it has a sell-off between Weds and Thurs. So far, not cheap enough to make me want to play.

    Calls/Tangled – Yes, thanks, it was the GME $23 calls, not puts!  

  82. What's your "sell off" number?  1.50? 1.51?  

  83. Hi Angel, 

    I was just trying to put in a nice word for Asperger's, as I know people with it, and people with tendencies. (Hopefully, Trump is not representative of some variety of ASD. I care less about narcissists…)

    Here's the link to the Corner section:  

    The section is to allow for various ongoing discussions with members that won't get lost in the day-to-day trading discussions. Also, members can submit their own work, like The Nattering Naybob does.

    Yodi has posted a couple trades/strategies in that section: e.g.  (I've moved this trade forward, the underlying stock has not moved too much since the article was originally posted.)

    Clay has posted his spreadsheet for evaluating option trades, here: Clay's Butterfly Evaluator. I moved this post forward too to make it easier to find.

    You can make comments to other people's articles in the comments or send me your thoughts on a subject you'd like to discuss with other members -

    Trump has certainly increased the amount of political discussion, and polarization. The Trump-movement (whatever that is) seems to have made it harder to sort through the news to decrease extremes and find sources that are as unbiased as possible. (I'm working on this!)

    Thank you for liking my work! I hope you will like the improvements to our news/opinion article sources that should be coming soon. 

    Phil's definitely the power behind the throne. smiley

    p.s. All – if you come across good ones, please send articles about Trump's mental situation to

  84. Cersei let's hope you're not her Jaime!..or Tyrion …or worse yet R Baratheon

  85. Any reason for the copper sell off?

  86. Phil

     If you were going to do a dividend plays on F

     What would you do?

     Buy Stock 12.60

     Sell 2019 12 calls 1.80 10 put 1.00

  87. copper sell off, is it not because of Feb rollover

  88. if we get shelled into the close it's a good sign for more pullback

  89. By the way, EIA was not interesting but we are exporting 2.6Mb of product a day, that's 18.2Mb/week – crazy for a country that imports oil!  Essentially, 1/3 of our imported oil is for refining only and we send it right back out.   

    Imports themselves were down 300,000/day so there's 2.1Mb of oil taken off the table.

    I'm still short 2 /CL at $54.80.

    Sell-off/Burr – Well /RB should hold $1.50 and then it can be played for a bounce but I'm hoping it doesn't hold it as I'm short /CL into next week's SPR release.  

    GOT/Angel – Tywin is not so bad once you get to know him.  I know several despots who think he's a stand-up guy.  You have to give him credit for the revival of Kings Landing – they only make him seem like a dick in the ravens…  cheeky

    Image result for game of thrones send raven animated gif

    Copper/Burr – Not sure why it went up like that.  I said that in the Webinar yesterday.  

    F/QC – I'd be more aggressive and sell $12 puts ($1.85) and $15 calls (0.75) as you have more room to run over 2 years and F is kind of cheap at $12.60 ($49.5Bn) with $151Bn in revenues and $6.4Bn in profits (p/e 13).   EPS-wise they are making $1.65 so 13 there too – an honest company!  

    I'm sorry but how ridiculous is it that TSLA has a $41Bn market cap on just $7Bn in sales (1/20th) and $2Bn in losses?  It's not even in the realm of reality! 

  90. Not market related, but I wanted to comment on something Burr said at the end of yesterday's post:

    February 23rd, 2017 at 8:17 am | Permalink | Tweet thisIgnore this user

    If LB would fire all the overpriced angels and put real women, pretty but real, they would gain back a lot of respect. 

    This over fit over skinny doesn't sit well with younger generations and older women who are just starting to feel okay with looking like a normal human!


    Am I the only one who sees a problem with the rejection of a healthy body?  New regulations and standards have been put in place that have taken us a ~really~ long way from the unhealthily skinny models that we had a few decades ago.  The female models you see today (not the male models!) are all in healthy weight regions and healthy body fat levels.  The common, "real" American average which has all the backing now-a-days is very unhealthy and I just don't get the prevalence of the "love your body no matter what" crowd.  That is a dangerous suggestion.

    Of course, I don't think people should be shamed or harassed for being overweight.  That said, we sure as hell shouldn't be celebrating unhealthy lifestyles.  Beyond that, if you want to help prevent spiraling-out-of-control healthcare costs, how about we start with getting people to be healthy?  Not everybody needs to be in model-quality shape but damn…let's at least NOT celebrate bad choices and the massive lack of motivation we have for taking care of ourselves.  The entire plus-size model fad is moving in exactly the wrong direction.

    I've mentioned before that I'm a certified personal trainer in discussions of GNC and some other supplement scammers but I feel like I have a valid opinion here as well.  I'm a CPT on one hand but my wife is also a former model.  I can also damn well say that you can have a very busy life while taking care of yourself.  I routinely work 10+ hour days while still working out 6 times a week and making healthy food choices.  It CAN be done.  Let's not demonize those of us that do just because our existence makes people who don't make the good decisions feel better about themselves.

  91. Very true JPH!  When I was a kid, we had the President's Physical Fitness Council and EVERYONE in the school had to pass basic minimums.  If you don't start teaching good habits to kids, what hope do you have for the adults?  Michelle Obama was dead right on that stuff but now we have a President who eats KFC on Air Force One – not even the hint of setting a good example.  At least Clinton would sneak out for burgers.  


  92. Phil/GME its nice to browse in the store (new & used), parents/grandparents can buy them for their kids as a present, as well it give kids the ability to take the game over to a buddies house and play on a split screen.

  93. As a parent of a child with autism I also don't think Trump is on the spectrum. My psychologist wife says he has the traits of a sociopath. I won't take the time to list the features but they do seem to fit. 

    I had another terrific day with futures . Started  by not fighting the trend and went long ES early at around 2361.25 with a few contracts and selling on the daily 9:15 ish pop at 2367. Also was long oil early morning and did the same getting in around 54.20 and out just under 55. Then shorted down to 54.50. Long nat gas on Phils calls and gold and silver continued to reward longs today. I am sure the upward march won't continue but might as well take advantage while it is happening. 

  94. Phil with an 11m barrel draw in total commercial petroleum inventory, do you think there's much room to fall especially so early in the contract cycle?

  95. Further to my comments about oil , especially if the dollar weakness continues?

  96. TYRION TYWIN was a total prick

  97. Good post JPH, I was thinking the same thing the other day when there was some ad for plus size lingerie on TV and I was thinking to myself…"im not trying to be mean hear and I'm no doctor but that lady is clearly obese!" 

    I think, like many things, anorexic models of the past surely weren't healthy either but the bounceback may have gone too far in the other direction these days. 

  98. Took profits on 2 contracts and left 2 contracts short at avg price $54.70 (following Phil).  Let's see how thing unfold SPR, $ moves (I would think with rising rates this should help strengthen)  

  99. Thoughts on BUD.  I would like to start building a position.  Options seem to pay well.  I know there are issues with the integration .. but that is usually time to buy.  Price fell to approx. 100 from high of $140.  Looking at 3 year chart, 100 looks like low end.  Price has since started to pick up and trending nicely upward.  Thinking about 2019 BCS 105-125 for approx $8 (14.50-6.60ish).  With sale of 2019 100 puts for $9.10 for about $1.00 credit.  Stock trading at $109 ish now.  Dividend is about 3%.  Alternatively can sell short term puts (105 Aprils for about $3.)  

  100. Draw/Craigs – I don't know what the deal is with "all other oils" and you can't ignore the 50M barrel build in the last 4 reports before this.  More to the point, 10Mb from the SPR will flood the report either next week or the week after – that should have some shock value and, more to the point, I don't see $55 being taken out so I like down better than up for betting at the moment (but still long into July).   And, this IS what oil is doing with a weak Dollar (talked down) – what happens when it pops back up?

    For CRS:

    Image result for rubenesque

    Trump/Craigs – Reminds me of this:

    BUD/Nom – They are still digesting Miller ($103Bn buyout) from October and it's going to be a transitional year.  What's burning them at the moment is the massive exposure to weak emerging markets and the strong Dollar – neither one of which are likely to reverse with looming trade wars.  They are priced at 21x earnings so not thrilling but I do think $100 will hold, especially as they turn around and start growing earnings so, rather than go for a $1 credit and needing $125 to get paid, I'd sell the 2019 $95 puts for $7.75 and buy the $85 ($26.75)/105 ($14.40) bull call spread for $12.35 so net $4.60 on the $20 spread that's 100% in the money pays you $6 less but you need 20% less gain to win.  

  101. Phil:  Thanks .. but how does dividend work into this.  Dividend for 2 years is $6+ ?  Another alternative may be short term, sell the 110 June puts and calls .. profit 100-120 (high probability range).  Dividend is ex-April.  Is this better?

  102. For your GME Top Trade today, if you sell a call for less than you paid for the stock, what are the chances that the stock will be called away earlier than 2 years (Jan 2019 expiration date)?

    Buy 1,000 GME at $25.77 ($25,770)

    Sell 10 GME 2019 $23 calls for $5.60 ($5,600) 

  103. i also want to go on the record (anonymously ) that the reubenesque figure is my preference thank you Phil thank you Paul

  104. Angel -you prefer zaftig.

  105. albini BINGO !!

  106. Bud. That's nice. Pay 4.60 for a potential 15.40 gain. 

    Risk is owning $10,000ish worth of bud for every contract spread traded. 

  107. LB – another reminder to me that you pay for getting into womens underwear eventually.  Any thoughts on adjustments?

  108. Fyi  /SI rolled to may on TOS.  

  109. BUD/Nom – Well if you want it for the dividend, you need to buy the stock but you can get paid $15.40 not to own it.  If you REALLY want to own BUD then sure, sell the higher puts, collect more money and just a bit more chance you'll be assigned and THEN you'll collect dividends but my attitude is that's a lot of work compared to collecting $7.50 a year not to own it unless it drops more than 10%.

    GME/Mnm – There's very little chance because the caller is paying $3 in premium so demanding my stock for $23 cancels the contract and costs him net $28.60.   Since he can buy the stock on the open market for $25.77, it would be very stupid for him to do such a thing.  Generally, as long as the premium on the call is less than the dividend, the chances of being called are essentially zero and, if you are called, they are doing you a favor as you can turn right back around and buy more stock and sell more calls.  Assignments seem like a big deal when you have no experience, once they happen to you a few times, you'll see it's just a minor annoyance.  

    LOL Datra!  I want to see where they settle out but, as noted this morning, we're still on target for our 2-year spread so no hurry.  

  110. Phil / Copper – What do you mean that "went up like that."  Copper took a nosedive today from 2.72 to 2.64.  Then it opened at 2.66 and now is 2.67.  

    I was wondering why it nosedived.  

    I would like your opinon as to where your level is on copper to go long?

    To me it seems like 2.6 or 2.5 look like good levels with tight stops below.  BUT I don't pretend to understand the global copper market.

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  143. Rep. Gohmert cites “violent strains of the leftist ideology.”<p>In a letter to his constituents, Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX) announced he won’t be holding …

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  182. Cash used in operations was $254 million when compared to cash flow from operations of $179 million in the previous fourth quarter.<p>That 20% swing was …

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  184. WASHINGTON (AP) — The Latest on President Donald Trump (all times local):<p>10:40 p.m.<p>A White House official says chief of staff Reince Priebus asked a top FBI official to help dispute media reports that President Donald Trump’s campaign advisers were frequently in touch with Russian intelligence …

  185. Gold prices held steady on Friday near 3-1/2-month highs hit in the previous session amid tempered expectations of a U.S. rate hike in March and as …

  186. Commodity-related sectors led European shares lower for a third straight session on Friday while the dollar was poised for a weekly losses as the “Trumpflation trade” lost momentum.<p>World stocks have hit record highs, emerging markets have come back in favour and the dollar has climbed to a 14-year …

  187. AP Radio AP Radio News:<p>Latest News<p>TOKYO (AP) — Global markets slipped in muted trading Friday amid worries over U.S. trade policies that may affect regional economies. A stronger yen weighed on Japan’s exporters.<p>KEEPING SCORE: France’s CAC 40 inched down nearly 0.1 percent in early trading to …

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  189. Greece’s Tsipras says the era of austerity is over

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  190. The US President called China ‘grand champions’ of currency manipulation.<p>Asian stock market indices were trading lower on Friday (24 February), with …

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  193. Good morning!  

    I'm in NYC and have to be on Facebook Live at 10(ish) at the Nasdaq.

    Markets down about half a point so far but Europe down 1% and, if they fall below, then expect us to be down 1% too.

    Big winner on my 8 /YM shorts – it's been a good week.  Now if only /CL would be kind enough to collapse.  /NG up 2% too!  Gold $1,259, Silver $18.33 – silly bears!  

    5,300 is key on the Nasdaq – told you I was missing those shorts but my fresh horse (/YM) seems to be working, so I shouldn't complain.

    Remember, drop from 5,350 to 5,300 is 50 so 10-point bounces to 5,310 (weak) and 5,320 (strong are what we watch for but I think weak bounce and fail).  Dollar 100.77 so it's trying to help but it's not working.

    Copper/Burr – I think we're on different time-frames because you are looking at this:

    And I am looking at this:

    My comments in the Webinar were re. copper's over-extended run that was due for a pullback (but too dangerous to bet either way).  You don't understand the global copper market because China hoards it and many companies pledge copper holdings against bank loans and they can never get accurate warehouse counts so the whole thing is a disaster.  Big recent moves have been caused by on again off again disputes in Indonesia and other countries who have the nerve to ask the miners to pay enough fees to cover the environmental disaster they leave in their wake.  That leads to a lot of up and down speculation about production.  So we don't know production levels and we don't know the inventory levels and we don't know whether or not there is infrastructure spending or what form it will take - have fun betting!  

    PSO/Scott – Sounds like a plan to me!  

  194. wow the greatest start for our stock market in history..GO AH ALT RIGHT TRUMP AH RESISTANCE MMMAH ALGOS 

    If this swoon continues at some point it will begin triggering HFT selling at heavier volumes..Europe could get really ugly with uncertainty up the yazEU

  195. /YM paid for my omelette this morning. Nice. 

  196. Hi Phil, are there any industrial ETF's you would consider for a Trump trade ? Thanks