Courtesy of Mish.
Despite poor but not horrendous economic reports today, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model forecast for first quarter GDP ticked up slightly today, from 2.4% to 2.5%.
Latest forecast: 2.5 percent — February 27, 2017
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 2.5 percent on February 27, up from 2.4 percent on February 16. The forecast for first-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 7.8 percent to 10.8 percent after the housing data releases last week from the National Association of Realtors and the U.S. Census Bureau.
GDP Comments
In regards to the trade deficit report this morning, Econoday commented: “This report will be bringing down early first-quarter GDP estimates.” A reader also commented on the same thing.
I replied to the reader “I agree but the effect is likely not as big effect as you might think. It takes big numbers just to move things s a couple ticks. Even then, it depends on the model. It may have already been anticipated even if economists did not see it.”
That’s what happened.
