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GDPNow, FRBNY Nowcast Inch Up: Gap Still Two Percent

By Ilene
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Courtesy of Mish

Te Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model inched up to 1.0% from 0.9% on Friday. Nothing much mattered since a week ago.

The FRBNY Nowcast Model inched up to 2.96% from 2.83% but rounding makes it appears as a 0.2% increase.

GDPNow Latest forecast: 1.0 percent — March 24, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 1.0 percent on March 24, up from 0.9 percent on March 16. The forecast for first-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 7.3 percent to 7.8 percent after this morning’s durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter growth increased from –0.87 percentage points to –0.77 percentage points after last Friday’s industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board.

FRBNY Nowcast Latest forecast: 1.0 percent — March 24, 2017

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 3.0% for 2017:Q1 and 2.7% for 2017:Q2.
  • News from this week’s data releases had a small positive impact on the nowcasts for both quarters, driven by new home sales data and the advance durable goods report.

So here we are with a full 2 percentage point gap between the forecasts with an alleged margin of error for each of 1 percentage point.

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Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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