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Fleeing Friday – Trump Escapes to Europe

Image result for trump europe cartoonWill Trump come back?  

Julian Assange is finally coming back after 8 years in hiding, I wonder where Trump will be seeking asylum – perhaps Mother Russia?  As noted by CNN: "Besieged at home, Trump sets off for 'do-or-die' foreign trip," stating "if President Donald Trump's crucial first foreign trip passes off without a disaster, it will be considered a success."  8 days without a disaster?  It's only been 114 days so far and I don't think we've gone 3 in a row without a new scandal!  

Not only that but Julian Assange is back – I can't wait to see WikiLeaks turn its sights on Donald's secrets.  Over in Europe, they want to know if Trump is really pulling out of the Paris Climate Accord in defiance of the entire rest of the World, who ratified the treaty – there's a good start.  That's the middle of his trip, which Trump ends with a NATO meeting, where he has to explain to the actual Members why he thinks they don't do their share but first, Trump heads over to the Middle East, where he has boasted he can fix things.  

Of course the real purpose of the trip is to sell arms to the Saudis and we have our LMT and RTN back from when Trump was first elected (see: "Merry Trumpmas – Looking Forward to a Wild New Year").  Raytheon (RTN) is already over our $145 target and our trade idea for them was:

We also like Raytheon (RTN), who get paid almost $2M every time the US fires a Tomahawk missile (and we do that a lot!).   So, to bet on the escalating cold war (and the proxy wars we love to fight), we like:

  • Sell 5 RTN 2019 $120 puts for $8.50 ($4,200) 
  • Buy 5 RTN 2019 $120 calls for $29 ($14,500) 
  • Sell 5 RTN 2019 $145 calls for $15 ($7,500)

In this case net $2,800 in cash buys us a $12,500 spread so the upside potential at $145 (where we are now) is $9,700 (346%).  As with the LMT trade, we're being conservative in our initial entry, in case the market sells off but, if it doesn't, nothing wrong with "just" making a 346% return on cash.  Margin requirement for 5 short $120 puts is just $6,000, so it's a  nice, margin-efficient trade as well.

It's only been 5 months but already the short $120 puts are down to $3.65 ($1,825) and the $120/145 spread is net $19.50 ($9,750) for net $7,925, which is up $5,125 (183%) and simply "on track" for our full $9,700 (346%) gain.  The upside from the trade as it stands is more than a double but that's not that interesting to us as a new trade – as clearly we can do much better than doubling our money over 18 months.  

In fact, let's look at the LMT trade from the same morning's report:

Because of their work on nuclear fusion, Lockheed Martin (LMT) is our favorite US defense contractor and they've been down recently as Trump tweeted out his displeasure with F35 cost overruns but, overall, we think it's a nice opportunity to go long LTM:

  • Sell 5 LMT 2019 $200 puts for $13 ($6,500)
  • Buy 5 LMT 2019 $220 calls for $45 ($22,500) 
  • Sell 5 LMT 2019 $260 calls for $23 ($11,500) 

That puts you into the $20,000 spread that's 80% in the money for net $4,500 so the upside potential, if LMT just manages to move up $10 in two years, then it's a profit of $15,500 (344%) and ordinary margin on the short puts is about $10,000 but those puts are a nice 20% discount to the current price – we're playing conservative because we do expect a market pullback.

Despite the recent dip, LMT is still over our target as well and the short $200 puts are down to $5.86 ($2,930) while the $220/260 spread is net $26.80 ($13,400) so net $10,470 is up $5,970 (132%), not quite as good as RTN but not bad for a 5-month return, right?  

That's something I want to stress about our long-term plays, it's not that they don't make money in the short run – we prefer them because, IF we are wrong, we have 2 years to ride out the trade and make adjustments.  If we're right – we make fantastic returns using very little cash.  As I noted yesterday, our Long-Term Portfolio has blasted higher this month and, in our Live Member Chat Room, when we reviewed the LTP – we found NOTHING that needed changing into today's expirations BECAUSE they are generally "set and forget" long-term FUNDAMENTAL trades like the ones above.

Read the news, make a trade, collect your cash – that's our whole system….

Speaking of systems, we predicted the index bounces yesterday using our fabulous 5% Rule™ and, other than the Nasdaq, which blasted higher we're right in the ranges we expected which means we're not very impressed with the dip buyers so far – especially since declining volume on the broader NYSE was 10% higher than advancing volume. 

I'll color code and add charts so we know what to watch for today to decide if we are going to be bullish or bearish into the weekend (prediction: bearish).  The first number is where we are now (8:15) in the Futures (yesterday we used the base):

  • Dow (/YM) 20,678 with 20,600 (weak) and 20,700 (strong) bounce lines.
  • S&P (/ES) 2,370 with 2,360 (weak) and 2,370 (strong)
  • Nasdaq (/NQ) 5,650 with 5,580 (weak) and 5,610 (strong) 
  • NYSE (no futures) 11,434 with 11,450 (weak) and 11,500 (strong) 
  • Russell (/TF) 1,362 with 1,360 (weak) and 1,370 (strong) 

That's a bit too much red to get bullish about.  The S&P is right on the line at 2,370 so they'll be our leading indicator for day trades but, on the whole, the Dollar is down 0.5% at 97.25 so the Futures up 0.3% is pathetic – not even enough to compensate for the weak Dollar so we're taking this whole thing with a grain of salt.  

Those Oil Futures (/CL) blasted over $50 and that was up more than $1,500 per contract, so we took those off the table this morning – congratulations to all who played along at home, it's a good way to go into the weekend, right?  

The same with Gasoline (/RB), which went over $1.625 so we stopped out there on the way back down with a lovely 0.725 gain at $420 per penny, per contract is up $3,045 per contract there and most of those gains came after we reiterated the trade in yesterday morning's report.  

Remember, I can only tell you what is going to happen in the markets and how to make money trading it – the rest is up to you!  

We went over the oil trades extensively in Wednesday's Live Trading Webinar (47:00 on the replay) and the only reason we cashed in is because there are still over 80,000 open June contracts at the NYMEX for delivery of 80M barrels and you know, if you have been following oil with us, that at least 65,000 of those orders are fake, Fake, FAKE!!! and the holders have no intention of having the oil delivered during the month of June so they must get rid of them by Monday – that's a lot of downward pressure at the moment. 

Click for
Current Session Prior Day Opt's
Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
Jun'17 49.28 50.07 49.28 49.98 08:22
May 19


0.63 27706 49.35 80657 Call Put
Jul'17 49.67 50.39 49.60 50.30 08:22
May 19


0.64 190273 49.66 631460 Call Put
Aug'17 49.75 50.62 49.75 50.54 08:22
May 19


0.63 13012 49.91 172678 Call Put
Sep'17 50.15 50.84 50.07 50.77 08:22
May 19


0.63 4936 50.14 188089 Call Put
Oct'17 50.29 51.01 50.25 50.94 08:22
May 19


0.61 3198 50.33 108262 Call Put
Nov'17 50.47 51.16 50.42 51.10 08:22
May 19


0.60 1445 50.50 66667 Call Put
Dec'17 50.64 51.29 50.54 51.21 08:22
May 19


0.58 10503 50.63 314308 Call Put
Jan'18 51.04 51.29 51.04 51.29 08:22
May 19


0.58 1099 50.71 71605 Call Put

July is already stuffed with 631M barrels worth of orders and imagine if they actually delivered them!  No, they are essentially all FAKE!!! and they too will be cancelled and rolled once they are done manipulating the prices to screw American drivers out of Billions of Dollars over the holiday weekend.  And look at that log-jam they already have in December – that's going to be a nightmare to unwind.  We look forward to shorting oil again right after July 4th, in fact. 

But, for now, we have faith in the ability of the NYMEX crooks to steal Billions of Dollars from their fellow Americans by jacking up the price of oil and gasoline into next weekend's holiday so we'll be buying the F'ing dip in oil (/CL) and gasoline (/RB) if we do get one but, so far, they are holding our exit levels.  We still have our long Oil ETF (USO) and Gasoline ETF (UGA), of course (see yesterday's notes) – those we don't pop in and out of like we do with the Futures.  

Notice how we trade at PSW?  We have PLENTY of long-term trades that we don't have to touch and which are well-hedged against a market downturn.  While we wait for those trees to bear fruit and while we hang out and look for new opportunities, we make the occasional short-term options trades with a small fraction of our portfolio money and, FOR FUN, with an even smaller fraction, we occasionally trade the Futures.  The vast, VAST bulk of our investments, however, go to the long-term trades – even in our Options Opportunity Portfolio.  

Speaking of corrupt Governments on the run – Brazil's President Temer is under investigation in connection with a corruption scandal – something we discussed back in March when I was interviewed for China Global Television:

As I said at the time "it's not going away" and here it is and nothing has changed my mind about taking the opportunity to go long.  This is the dip we were waiting for as Brazil's ETF (EWZ) took an insane dive, back to the December lows.  That's a bit of an overreaction because President Trump has proven you can have an inept, corrupt leader with a terrible policy agenda based on hate-mongering and cronyism, who is just two steps ahead of going to jail – and the markets can still rally, right?  

So I like EWZ down here ($32.75) and we can take advantage of this dip with the following:

  • Sell 5 EWZ 2019 $25 puts for $2 ($1,000) 
  • Buy 10 EWZ 2019 $25 calls for $11.50 ($11,500) 
  • Sell 10 EWZ 2019 $35 calls for $5.50 ($5,500) 

That's net $5,000 on the $10,000 spread that's over $7,000 in the money to start.  The upside potential is $5,000 which would be a 100% return on your money and your worst-case downside would be owning 500 shares of EWZ for net $30/share ($15,000).   The ordinary margin on the short puts is just $780 so it's a very margin-efficient play as well.

Have a great weekend,

- Phil


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  1. Good Morning.

  2. Somehow I missed rtn and lmt but I didn't miss ftr, cbi, f, pso, ge, fxp, and teva. 


  3. Burrben – Funny, sounds like we have a similar score card… ;)

  4. Buys/ Phil

    Hi Phil – Logging back after a short hiatus.  Anything on your banging the table buy list?  I booked profits on LL and IRBT (too early though) – Thanks!

    Also double downed on FTR at 1.26 and TWTR at 15ish


  5. The Paris accord is garbage. At $66B, infant crypto (as predicted) has now become toddler crypto – we can price carbon productivity in crypto now. Time to move on from old models, that don't work, to new models that might work. These are the ones controlled by individuals. Gov'ts, deep state conspiracy or not, are no longer relevant. 

    It begs the question though – what will crypto be worth as a teenager? I think $200 to $500B – a "lot" of money, I guess, but still less than 1 single US-based public corporation. So in context. Not that much. I consider "a lot" to be the $400T futures and currency exchange market – so crypto at $0.2 to $0.5T isn't "a lot" yet, but I've gotten into trouble talking about this stuff in here before, despite the fact what I say is totally reasonable, even if it is not well understood.

  6. burrben – as long as your thanking people you're welcome for that 60X on Ripple. $250 became $15,000. Not bad huh?

  7. Good morning,  looks like we have hit the strong bounce lines.

  8. wow , the 5% rule is now trademarked?

  9. BDC- Was that comment to Burr a private thing or did you a 60x winner? Anything else for the rest of us? Ripple?

  10. KC- Out for now at 132.60 with a decent profit after a stupid start by me, I decided that it was goingto blast higher this week when it began by popping to 135 and I bought a long at 134 or so on Wednesday only to see it plummet from there. Got another at 130 and another at 129, so when it went above 131 today I was ITM and doing pretty well, but was it worth two days of worry that we would see the bottom drop out for a big loss. Burr I am feeling very Costanzaish these days too. 

  11. Biod. Wow!

    I have to login to my coinbase acct. I bought all the 3 you said at 500 each. Might be a good friday!

  12. All – question for the group.  Is anyone using Bitcoin as a form of payment? My son is in Sicily , Palermo at the moment – free lance journalist writing on the Immigration issues.  Do you think by offering to be paid in Bitcoin is a viable alternative to wiring money back to the US / Euro bank?   Thanks

  13. I did the first 3 at 500 each when btc was 1260 or so. From the Crypto corner page


    Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), Ethereum Classic (ETC), Dash, Zcash, and for a 6th, PIVX

  14. Latch – BTC payments are quick, cheap and of course completely secure – however BTC moves against the dollar (think of it more like an asset, like gold), so if you get paid in it, but really need the fiat, you will want to move it into fiat asap.

  15. burrben – I left off Ripple — my bad! sorry! Speaking of "scorecards" I moved that one onto the list in my mind in hindsight… :P

  16. even if you didn't want to fiddle with the (rather simple) trouble of owning coins, there was always GBTC

    which was pointed out multiple times over the past 18 months.

  17. Biod. So now that a huge spike occurred where should the next 1500 be allocated to? Or should we wait? Or should I take profits on those 3?

  18. Phil,

    Possible hedge (learning experience): SPY sell Jul 241 call (1.83) and buy 237/232 Jul call (1.65). net crd .18. Appeal – to me at least – is the narrower b/a SPY (vs TZA, SDS)spreads enabling one to leg out of the spread (buy back the sht put if market tanks). Your thoughts appreciated as always.

  19. I sold 25% ETH at 90 – still holding 75% ETH as well as my relatively small positions in BTC and ETC. No buying here IMO! I've been wrong before though. I'm searching pages 3 and 4 of for interesting buys. 42 coin might make a comeback. I might buy $100 or $200 worth. I like coins that have been around awhile (like 2014 or 2015 ICO's). There's others like this.

    I'm off to bed though. NN!

  20. CBI bounced off of 18 got a new CEO

  21. Biod – How about this one?

    7. Tezos is about to launch.

    Okay, so this last one might not have pushed bitcoin below the 50% threshold, but it is likely to help keep it below that threshold. Tezos may be one of the most anticipated ICOs, about to launch in June and stay open for two weeks. The code is written in OCaml, a language that has the ability to formally verify smart contracts to ensure that they execute as the creators intended them to. Tezos is also generating excitement because the software has, built into it, a mechanism for resolving issues such as the scaling debate in bitcoin. Therefore, even if bitcoin exceeds 50% market share for now, it will likely again fall under that threshold once the Tezos ICO begins.

  22. Congrats to the /KC players.  $1k/contract off the 1.30 line!

  23. phil--that ewz trade is not even close to possible unless ewz drops again

  24. Go TF to 1370 and Beyond!!

    Thanks BDC

  25. And patience on /NG paid off.  Out @ 3.25 for a small win, but no loss.  FU NG!

  26. Earlier in the year I was fortunate to make some good money selling SHLD puts as the stock more than doubled from its February low.  Recently, I've been selling OTM puts on JCP.  It's just a bet that JCP survives.   Nice to see that Morgan Stanley agrees with me.  We'll see.

    ~~"[Sears] one- and two-year credit default swaps imply the market is pricing a high profitability of default over the next 12 to 24 months," Morgan Stanley said in a note. "If Sears files for bankruptcy this year and subsequently liquidates, JCP could be a major beneficiary.
    That's right, Morgan Stanley is already predicting who will come out the big winner from a likely Sears Chapter 11 filing and possible liquidation, and it's J.C. Penney (JCP)."

  27. Looks like a strong opening. Need to watch if it poersists.

  28. You love dragging that net pretty deep Albo… Good luck!

  29. albo –  Do they mean "high probability" here?  Profitability doesn't seem to make sense.

    ~~"[Sears] one- and two-year credit default swaps imply the market is pricing a high profitability of default over the next 12 to 24 month

  30. Looking elsewhere, the storied short seller says the markets are pricing in a President Pence (, and the longtime Tesla (TSLA) critic says he still loves his bet ( against Elon Musk's baby. It's "one of the poster boys for this market" and will face trouble in "an environment where people get scared, or the capital needs overwhelm the company's ability to raise them," Chanos says

  31. Out of TF with 4 for a $2.2k win.  Will enjoy the weekend and try not to trade till Monday.

  32. Thanks, STJ.  I may be wrong but I think JCP has as good a chance of surviving as FTR.  Selling the Nov $4 puts seems to me like  reasonable bet.  I'm not betting the ranch here !   Just making a bet with well defined risk parameters.

    Burrben – That's got to be what they meant.

  33. albo…FTR is flyingf today!@!!!!

  34. Good morning!

    Wheee on /KC – up like a bullet past $133 again (and that's my stop line as I hate to blow $5,000 gains).  

    This is why I like to play from a fundamental perspective with CONVICTION, rather than going in and out of trades in random directions.  

    May 17th, 2017 at 9:49 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink

    Speaking of failure – /KC $130 so 2 more is 10 long at $133.07 for me and down $11K! 

    May 17th, 2017 at 11:47 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink 

    GO /KC!  Finally…  


    May 17th, 2017 at 12:28 pm | (Unlocked) | Permalink

    Don't forget /KC stops trading about 1pm – I'm thrilled to get back to 5 longs at $133(ish) avg. 

    May 17th, 2017 at 12:35 pm | (Unlocked) | Permalink 

    /KC/Aquila – At this rate, I might have to cash them all.  That's why I like to play these things, if I have a long-term bullish premise and it goes lower, I just buy more.  Not a complicated plan.  If I'm right about the Fundamentals, then it only takes a nudge to get things going my way again.  

    Damn, $135 on /KC makes it irresponsible not to cut back to 2 longs.  crying

    May 17th, 2017 at 3:19 pm | (Unlocked) | Permalink

    So we're left with 2 long /KC at $133 and 1 long /DX at 97.47 and one long /CLN7 at $49.50.

    I called a long /TF at 1,357.50 right at the end but just looking for a quick bounce and out if they fail 1,360

    May 18th, 2017 at 10:02 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink

    /KC failed $130!  Great buying opportunity for those with strong stomachs.  

    May 18th, 2017 at 12:02 pm | (Unlocked) | Permalink

    I'm back to 4 long /KC now and I hope to do better than this.  My average is around $131.70 (now I've lost track) so I guess I'll keep a tight stop on 2 of them.  

    Good catch by Burrben also, reading one of the coffee reports with a bullish outlook last night.  

    /NG flying too.  Ah, Dollar diving to 97.20 – everything is popping in response.  

    So now, the only things I have left are /NGV7 and my 1 long /DX (the only one that's not winning) and I've got plenty of money so I'm thrilled to add another /DX long, so now 2 @ 97.32.

    Costanza/Burr – Well those are all good stocks to build into.  

    Hola Checho!   CBI is very interesting, EWZ up 6% but still worth a look, Burr's list is good.  I was hoping for 0.80 to DD on FTR but that might have been greedy.  If we can't get it super-cheap though, I'd just as soon wait for the split.  

    Crypto/BDC – It's like talking about Pot stocks – sure it will be a huge industry.  So will electric cars and flying cars and Crispr – but it's so hard to pick winners this early on that it's not a great subject for serious investing.    I missed the call for Ripple too, earliest mention of it I found was this one:

    Ripple's turn. $200M to $8Bin two months. That's 40X !!!!! Granted it took 4 years but still…

    Crypto total market cap$52.8B. 

    Trademark/Stock – As long as me shoving a symbol after it counts then yes, it's trademarked!  

    Big Chart – Nice bounce for the RUT off 1,350 but NYSE too far away to be happy.  

  35. Phil,

    Correction (age- related error) re my SPY 9:24 question above (should be buy 237/232 Jul 'PUTs' – not call)


  36. I'm bidding 3.60 on the EWZ spread.  I'll just let it hang out there.  It will eventually fill somewhere in those 2 years I'm sure.

  37. Jabob – All it took was a dis from me !

  38. Shorted some SVXY at $141.  Looking for a scalp.

  39. please dis 


    M, TEVA, GILD, GNC, JO, XOM, LB, F, and TSLA?AMZN? ;-)  

  40. Jabob – I'm frequently referred to as a contrary indicator. 8-)

  41. /KC/Craigs – You are doing great, just have to get out of the greed zone.  I was just thrilled to get out at $133 – I don't worry about something going higher – there's something else to play every day so any day I lock in $1,000 – I'm on my way to $200,000/yr – that's all I care about.   Now I hope /KC dives on Mon/Tues and, if not, I'll move on and play something else.  

    Bitcoin/Latch – While it's great for avoiding taxes and transfers, you run the risk of a correction discounting your wages (though it might go higher too).  If it's a short-term thing to flip the money to a US account – then it makes good sense other than trying to get whoever employs him to set up a Bitcoin account, which may be tricky as they too would have to worry about fluctuation in BitCoin value.  

    Getting back to EWZ, the 2019 $25 puts dropped to $2 and the 2019 (not 2018 now) $25 ($11.50)/35 ($5.50) spread is $6 so not really different from the morning post so let's add a set to the OOP at 5 short and 10 long spreads and, in the LTP, let's go 15 short and 40 long spreads.

  42. FTR tease today? 

  43. Phil/UGA – I think there are some "uncovered" July UGA 24 calls in one of the portfolios/top trades – is it a good idea to finally sell some higher strike calls after the runup – or not yet???

  44. Does anyone have experience with accounting software for private investment clubs? Looking for some suggestions to evaluate.

  45. God Phil you are handsome.  But not in a gay way.  Ok, a little bit.

  46. SPY/8800 – You are selling the July $241s ($2.14 now) and buying the $232 ($8.15)/237 ($4.42) bull call spread for $3.73 so the net looks like $1.59 and how is this a hedge?  You only win if the S&P is higher than $233.59 but lower than $241.  

    CBI/Batman – Damn, they are flying back.  For the LTP, we already have 15 short 2019 $25 puts at $5.20.  Let's add 20 2019 $20 ($5.50)/$27.50 ($2.90) bull call spreads at $2.60 ($5,200) so we still have a net $2,600 credit on the potential $15,000 spread.  Good for a new trade as those puts are now $7.30

  47. Added another short on SVXY at $1.43.

  48. Phil/FL  What do you think of Foot Locker?

  49. Shit !  6% increase in EWZ intraday  after Phil  mail……how many members you have?

  50. advill/members  We are legion

  51. Stopped out of SVXY.  Animal spirits alive and well this morning.

  52. Phil,

    Sorry for the confusion on my SPY hedge (meant 'puts' not calls 237/232 Jul puts -corrected 10:15). Selling the Jul 241 call (2.22); buying the Jul 237 p (3.67) and selling the Jul 232 p (2.32)  put spread net 1.45. Net trade credit of a whopping .77 but have the ability to kill the losing side of the put  spread if a trend develops. Thanks for the extra effort.

  53. Phil –  Do you know anything about Beta weighting a portfolio against a index, such as the S&P.  Then you find out how many delta dollars you are long, and to hedge, you can short the index you beta weighted against, like /ES to move the portfolio delta neutral or lean short.  

    Have you done this before?

  54. Oil over $50.50, /RB $1.64.  I'll be really pissed if they run up to $55 without me.

    EWZ/Jabob – The math was wrong (fixed now) as I started with 5/5 and moved to 5/10 and then the stock took off and all the numbers changed anyway.  

    /NG/Burr – NGV7 is $3.40 – up 0.07 from yesterday.  

    JCP/Albo – Not keen on a bet that depends on someone else screwing up.  

    TSLA/Jabob – I don't know, even Elon said it was overpriced yesterday and no one seems to care.  

    /TF/Latch – Nice trade.

    SPY/8800 – Well that's a bit different.  I like that trade then.  Don't overdo it or you screw yourself on a big rally with the short calls – that's why I prefer to sell puts on something I'd like to buy for the long-term anyway (CBIs are nice).  

    SVXY/Albo – Wow, that VIX rally didn't last long.

    FTR/Jabob – No, sadly I don't think we're going to get our 0.80.  

    UGA/Jeff – Well I don't track the Top Trades, there is no portfolio on it.  I don't know what the price was but our goal is to get out into July 4th, when gasoline should top out.  UGA is at $26 and the July $24s are $2.50 so you can sell the $26s for $1.20 and net $1.30 on the $2 spread or hope UGA goes up more than your 0.50 premium between now and July.  

    Thanks Hanj – you should have seen me when I had hair and a swimmer/skier's body!  cool

    FL/Hanj – Revenues were flat but income was down 5% and shoes may be safe from AMZN (gotta try them on) and they are not messing with guidance of $5.30/share so $60 is very reasonable.  The 2019 $60 puts can be sold for $9 and that nets you in for $51 – that's the way I'd go but they might fall further before this ends as these retail panics tend to run wild.  

    EWZ/Advill – It's not the number of Members, it's the quality!  We have some very big swingers out there – especially on the Institutional side.  Raw numbers are 40,000 unique PSW visitors each month and 1.6M twitter followers and 60,000 more at Seeking Alpha and Greg says about 250,000 more via syndication of the morning post so anything you read there is going to move pretty fast.  

    Beta Weighting/Burr – Yes, but too wonky for my taste.  As you know, I simply keep an LTP and and STP with the hedges and pay attention to how they perform under stress and that tells me my weighing far more accurately than running delta analysis because the deltas change in different market conditions and that then throws the whole thing off when attempting to Beta-weight.  Check with your broker, they probably have a function that will analyze your positions and give you a weighting – start by using that and then look for tools that do a better job.  

  55. Phil / members…….  Well now I understand why you get up at 3:00 AM ….lol

  56. Phil,

    Re Spy hedge, understood. Moderation and patience – easier in theory than practice.


  57. Phil – As we say down South, you're a hoss !

  58. Phil/FXP : back down to Monday levels after Trump/Comey pop this week.   Do you have another China play for June or later?

  59. Gin – "Ok, a little bit."  Hajima – NO!!  When my good friend Soo Gin's father oft barked that at him, he would respond "Ok, not a little bit?"  Precipitating his old man raising his hand and feigning to give chase, while muttering under his breath something to the effect of "chal an chama" (phonetic), which I assumed meant, don't sass talk back, wise off or get smart with your elders. 

    I don't know how a boy named Soo or I made it past our teens. Now I am craving some of his mom's dried myulchi, depending on her mood, sometimes salty and sweet, sometimes overloaded with spice and garlic, with a beer or soju back. Daedanhi gamsahamnida for the Friday flashback and my ROFLMAO of the day.  Out.

  60. Looks like the buyers have exhausted themselves but job well done.  RUT right on the strong bounce line (1,370) and all the rest are now over so we're officially "recovered" from Wednesday's sell-off and you can't really be bearish into the weekend.

    Oil and Gasoline still climbing.  

    Dollar might have found a floor at 97.15.

  61. Speaking of POT companies,  MassRoots  (MSRT),  its a social media platform for Pot smokers and businesses… They have registered over a million users …

  62. Phil/USO  Thumbs up emoji. Thanks

  63. Phil / ABX: what do you think about the class action against them that causes the drop yesterday. Anything to worry about ? The freaking stock can't catch a break !

  64. Phil, All,

    As we approach the 240 (SPY) high and I am scaling into hedges, I am looking at what catalysts could possibly drive the market to new highs, especially given the present political environment and associated congressional distraction which would seem to put stimulus vehicles (tax cuts, inheritance tax repeal, infrastructure spending) on hold. The article suggesting a rally following aTrump exit seems unlikely.

    Anyone have any sense of what else – fundamental or otherwise – lurking in the wings might put us over 240 ?

  65. Phil – long time – but I am back now – Sorry if I missed any recommendation you had in the private chat. Whats your thoughts on RBOB. It is around 1.65 now, do you see it going higher from here toward the next weekend? I think it topped out around 1.80 this time last year

  66. Burr as a semi coffee head, where are you getting your info ? That tweet from the other day was just the ticket to keep the faith Wednesday. 

  67. Phil

    What do you think of FTR Preferred FTRPR

    Frontier Communications, 11.125% Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, Series A


  68. MSRT/01 – I like that idea.   Still very much in the start-up phase apparently.  One of their guys is the social marketing guy from PayPal. 

    FXP/Tom – I'd give them another month to unravel at this point.  Sadly, the premium is a bit silly so hard to play.  The July $23s are $3.20 and you can sell the $27s for $1.10 for net $2.10 on the $4 spread – that's the way I'd go as a new play and, if FXP goes lower, then you can sell $24 puts, now 0.60 for $1 + and, if they don't go lower, you're $2.80 in the money.

    ???/Naybob – Was there a sale at the peyote store today?  

    You're welcome PB.  

    ABX/Micro – Cost of doing business for miners.  Doesn't affect how much gold they have in the ground.  I don't know what "can't catch a break" means when they were at $6 at the end of 2015 and $14 at the end of last year and now $16.66.  We have the Jan $12/20 bull call spread from last April at net $3.15 and we already bought back the short puts in the LTP (because $20 was silly) so it's really net free.  If it goes lower, I'd be thrilled to roll out the $12s to 2019. 

    New Highs/8800 – The new FBI director, who Trump appoints, could say they found nothing, which would make the special counsel look like he's wasting time – even if he finds stuff and he's not likely going to want to call the FBI liars.  They could ram through the tax cuts or start talking infrastructure stimulus or the Fed could indicated they are holding off on raising rates.  None of those things will stop me from shorting /ES at 2,400, /YM 21,000, /TF 1,400 (/NQ too silly to play).   

    /RB/Bulls – Well you missed a good one as we grabbed them earlier in the week.  Now $1.65 I do see it going higher next week but I'm not willing to hold over the weekend so I'll wait until Monday to see if oil and gas are worth getting back into.  

    FTRPR/QC – I like it but the stock pays 12% and is likely to go higher and likely, down the road, to increase the dividend so I'd stick with the stock.  

  69. Craig. Stocktwits, twitter searching for $jo $kc_f $coffee.  But the last brings up lots of ppl with lattes

  70. 8800- The special prosecutor appointment puts the whole thing in slow motion. There will be an investigation and will likely drag on very slowly and may, or may not reveal a smoking gun(s). As such, the market has already discounted this outcome and we get back to earnings and outlook. 

    The prevalent theme emanating from the punditry is the Trump election with promises of health care reform, deregulation and tax reform was the catalyst for the late 2016/early 2017 rally and now that is in jeopardy. Maybe yes, maybe no. The other side claims the rally would have taken place regardless of the Nov. winner and what we are now seeing is the economy moving into a higher gear and stocks will continue to climb especially given low interest rates, low inflation, and TINA (There Is No Alternative). The technicians almost unanimously vote for being overbought and overpriced. So, take your pick. I guess the proximate hurdle will be if we get some solid closes above SPX 2400 and see if buyers step in on a breakout premise. 

    As the guy used to say, up or down from here. 

  71. Phil isn't the 2nd half of the morning post locked?  If I logout I can't see the ewz trade. 

    If so, the stats are only valid for ppl who can see it. 

  72. Way overbought again on indexes/

  73. Help me Obi-Wan Kenobi — the future is more awesome than I expected!<p>A team of Australian and Chinese researchers at RMIT University in Melbourne has unveiled the world’s thinnest hologram with the potential to change the way we look at technology — quite literally.<p>The “nano-hologram” is set apart …

  74. WASHINGTON — Nothing says serious business in Washington like the term special counsel.<p>It resonates solemnly through the capital and inspires grave talk, including the possibility of significant wrongdoing at the highest levels with the potential of historic consequences.<p>The implied gravity of the …

  75. Tesla is far from the only company looking to profit off of rechargeable batteries for the home.<p>At-home batteries are a necessary purchase for anyone looking to convert their home to solar power. The batteries store the electricity generated by solar panels, which can then be used at night or …

  76. $110 Billion Weapons Sale to Saudis Has Jared Kushner’s Personal Touch

    WASHINGTON — On the afternoon of May 1, President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, welcomed a high-level delegation of Saudis to a gilded reception room next door to the White House and delivered a brisk pep talk: “Let’s get this done today.”<p>Mr. Kushner was referring to a $100 billion-plus arms …

  77. Consulting is pervasive in many industries. Yet the use of consultants remains controversial. Why would firms give away key activities to hired guns? Why would these “mercenaries” perform these activities better than in-house employees? Many employees dismiss consultants as people who “borrow your …

  78. Investors haven’t loved tech stocks this much since the height of the dot-com bubble.<p>The sector is on pace to absorb the most capital in 15 years, an inflow that would represent roughly 25% of assets under management for the group, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data. For context, the …

  79. The Japanese government has approved legislation that will permit Emperor Akihito to abdicate the Chrysanthemum throne, becoming the first emperor to step down in more than two centuries.<p>The emperor is expected to abdicate in December 2018, when he will mark his 85th birthday, in favour of his …

  80. Morning MoneyBeat is the Journal’s pre-market primer. To receive this morning newsletter via email, click here:<p>OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS<p>Global stocks inched higher Friday.<p>The Stoxx Europe 600 edged up 0.4% in recent trading, following a muted session in Asia. …

  81. WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told lawmakers on Thursday that the Trump administration does not support separating investment and commercial banks.<p>The administration has previously expressed support for some return of the Glass-Steagall Act, which established a …

  82. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. asked the Federal Reserve to allow it to hold as much as 24.99 percent of American Express Co., a stake …

  83. Wall Street has been beating up on Ford. Over the past three years, the automaker’s stock has declined 30%, at a time when US car sales have been booming and the S&P 500 surging.<p>There seems to be nothing Ford can do to turn this around. The company continues to book solid profits and pay investors …

  84. , Contributor<p>Silver Wheaton began trading under its new name, Wheaton Precious Metals, on the New York Stock Exchange earlier this week. The new name reflects the transformation of Silver Wheaton from a largely silver-focused streaming company to a more diversified company, with the revenue from …

  85. After maintaining a strong momentum for three straight days, Bitcoin price has established a new all-time high at $1,920. This was triggered by the …

  86. “I do believe this market cap is higher than we have any right to deserve.”<p>For a small army of skeptics and short-sellers, Tesla’s gravity-defying stock price has remained a source of envy and exasperation. Last month, <b>Elon Musk’s</b> 13-year-old electric car company vaulted past General Motors and Ford …

  87. Investors who think Tesla shares are overvalued are discounting the fact that the company will be a major player in the autonomous taxi market, a $2 …

  88. Over the last few years we’ve seen more camera drones than we can count, but getting the best footage out of them will take something extra. While many big budget productions are already using drone cameras, a system developed by MIT and ETH Zurich researchers goes beyond mere Steadicam or even …

  89. JO/Phil, I need some help on a few positions.  I have the JO  June 17/19 BCS at $1.30, now $.90 and the short June 20 put at $1.60, now $2.00.  This is a rolled position from a worse one back in December.  I'd still like to ride this, better to roll to Sept or Dec? Not much premium on the $19 calls, just buy them back?

  90. CBI/Phil  another tough one. I have 10 of the Jan 18 25/30 BCS at $6.60, now $1.00, but I took $4K profit out of it last fall, so I am just $1,600 down on that part.  I also have 10 short Jan 18 $30 puts at $3.60, now $9.85 and 5 short Jan 18 $35 calls at $5.70, now $.43. What would you suggest to re-position this? Thanks in advance.

  91. withPhil / ABX:  thanks !

    well I guess by catch a break I mean I want gold and ABX go up enough to cover all my other losses in HOV and RIG :)

    With ABX I bought at 20 long ago but I doubled and tripled down to get my cost below 12 so it's ok there  

  92. Today's up volume is the mirror opposite of Wednesday's decline. Would think we'd see some selling into the close.

  93. Locked/Burr – Generally, I release the post after the market opens – unless there's a Members' trade I'm trying to protect.  Now I think you can see it.

    JO/Jet – Well we decided not to throw good money after bad on that one – we're giving up.  I like the premise but maybe not this year and JO isn't a good enough ETF to hold longer-term (too much decay).  If you want to stick with it, I'd roll the loss (0.80?) and sell the Dec $18 puts for $1.45 and then just roll them along until they expire worthless or you get tired of them.  

    CBI/Jet – The good news is the Jan $25s are $2!  At least you can roll those out to the 2019 $20 ($5.50)/27.50 ($2.90) bull call spread at $2.60 and the Jan $30 puts ($10) can be rolled to the 2019 $25 puts ($7) and that nets you in those at 0.60.  

    Break/Micro – Ah, it's not one positions fault that you lost money in another position (though many women don't see it that way).  Aren't you covering these things?  

    Volume/Den – So far, we fell from SPY 240 to 235.82 on 172M shares on Weds and now, in two days of trading 165M shares, we're back to 238.78.  So the net effect is we're lower than we were.

    Date Open High Low Close Adj Close* Volume
    May 19, 2017 237.33 238.95 237.28 238.78 238.78 61,606,673
    May 18, 2017 235.73 237.75 235.43 236.77 236.77 104,133,500
    May 17, 2017 240.08 240.08 235.75 235.82 235.82 172,174,100
    May 16, 2017 240.64 240.67 239.63 240.08 240.08 51,241,800
    May 15, 2017 239.47 240.44 239.45 240.30 240.30 61,918,900

  94. Phil – have you looked at Antero previously?  AR   ~~Antero's CEO and CFO purchase a combined 750,000 shares of AR, with total shares beneficially owned reaching ~27 million (combined), highlighting that management's interests are very much well-aligned with those of shareholders.

  95. Phil- Any thoughts on a new trade on US Steel?

  96. AR/Latch – I'm not sure what they did last year that lead to losses but, normally, they should be making $750M and the market cap at $2 is $7Bn, so a good deal overall. Obviously super-dependent on nat gas prices but maybe worth a toss down here.  

    I'd try selling the 2019 $17.50 puts for $1.75, that seems like free money and then the $20 ($4.80)/$25 ($2.80) bull call spread at $3 nets you in for $1.25 on the $5 spread in a low-risk play.  

    X/Calch – So messy with China causing prices to go up and down like a yo-yo.  Unlike AR (above), X has such massive fixed costs that they immediately lose a ton of money if prices aren't in their favor.  Without a sure thing on infrastructure, this could badly burn you but with infrastructure and protectionism – you could do great.   At $10 I get excited about these guys (more so CLF) but $20 is only "attractive".  Fortunately, however, you can sell 2019 $13 puts for $1.75 and that pays for the $20 ($5.20)/$30 ($2.45) bull call spread at $2.55 so you net in for 0.80 and your worst case is owning X for $13.80, which I think is survivable and your wild-card upside is $9.20 (1,150%).  

    Notice that trade isn't highlighted because, though it's fun – I wouldn't call it generally recommended.  

    Seed vault/Pharm – Wow, we are so doomed.  Can't even get our disaster protections right.

  97. is there a reason why ftr is up so much today?

  98. Jabob – Have you ever heard the expression, "Don't look a gift horse in the mouth ?"

  99. if it goes to 2 then it will be a gift albo…

    but I don't mind it moving higher since I added lower ;-)

    • Not too much of a surprise given his dovish leanings of late, but St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard takes note of inflation and inflation expectations surprising to the downside this year.
    • "Even if the U.S. unemployment rate declines substantially further, the effects on inflation are likely to be small."
    • The FOMC's expected policy path (at least two more rate hikes this year) may be "overly aggressive" versus what the incoming economic data is showing.
    • Bloomberg reports that the House of Representatives may have to vote again on Republicans' repeal of Obamacare depending on how the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates its effects. House leaders want to ensure that the bill conforms with Senate rules for reconciliation so it can pass with a simple majority vote.
    • Republicans pushed through the first vote so the Senate could start quickly on its work, but the CBO had not finished analyzing a number of last-minute changes. Its updated estimate should be released next week.
    • If GOP leaders hold onto the bill until the CBO releases its report, then majority leader Paul Ryan and his team could tweak it, if necessary, which would require another vote.
    • There's no quit in the rally of Bitcoin as the alternative currency crosses over $1,900 for the first time ever.
    • Bitcoin traded as high as $1,955.72 earlier today, compared to the $433 price of one year ago.
    • Strong interest from Japan continues to underpin the strength in bitcoin.
    • Related tickers: COINOTCPK:BTCS

    U.S. still not getting full bang-for-the-buck in healthcare, mortality rates trail Andorra, Iceland and Australia

    • Despite spending a world-leading $9K per person, the U.S. still trails many countries in terms of stopping preventable deaths. A recent study using the newly created Healthcare Access and Quality Index, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, shows the America trailing tiny Andorra as well as Australia, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, France, Canada and the UK.
    • Scores were assessed on a scale of 1 – 100. Researchers chose 32 causes of death (e.g., diabetes, hypertension) deemed preventable via access to high-quality healthcare and then mapped them against data from the widely cited Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study.
    • The U.S. scored 81, behind Andorra's 95, Iceland's 94 and Sweden and Norway's 90, but ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia.
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • Deutsche Bank is "warming up" to the Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE:VRX) story. Analyst Gregg Gilbert says the company is "not out of the woods" just yet but the worst fears may be subsiding. He regards its near-term setup as "encouraging" considering its planned asset sales and recent refinancing. He adds that near-term generic competition to Xifaxin "seems to be off the table for now" (HOLD/$18).
    • Source: The Fly
    • Shares are up 3% premarket on average volume.
    • JPMorgan's Chris Schott says the 8% pullback in Allergan (NYSE:AGN) since its Q1 earnings release is a buying opportunity because its results will become "less controversial" throughout the remainder of the year as its business settles down after the sale of its generics business last year to Teva. Several "meaningful" catalysts are ahead in 2018 (OVERWEIGHT/$300).
    • Source: The Fly

    • Analyst Jason Harbes and team downgrade the credit-card sector to Market Weight from Overweight.
    • Harbes takes note of net charge-offs for the group rising to 3.6% in Q1 – that's up 43 basis points from a year ago, and at a four-year high. Harbes sees this staying elevated for the rest of the year, even in a benign economic environment.
    • A 100 basis point increase in the provision rate would cut EPS for the sector by 27% on average, with Capital One (COF +1%) faring the worst (48%), followed by Discover (DFS+1.3%) and Synchrony (SYF +2.6%) in the 22%-23% range, and American Express (AXP+0.6%) at 15%.
    • The good news: The capital return story remains a good one for the names, with the CCAR results in June a possible positive catalyst.
    • Source: Bloomberg's Lily Katz
    • Synchrony's outsized gain today comes following last night's better-than-expected capital return announcement
    • "Our goal – going back to regulatory reform – is should you move the down payment requirement from 20% to 10%? It wouldn't introduce that much risk but would actually help a lot of mortgages get done," Brian Moynihan told CNBC.
    • Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) was the top U.S. mortgage lender ahead of the 2008 mortgage crisis, causing it to face greater losses, both from defaults and litigation, than any other bank.
    • Whether it's fattened shorts taking some profits or dip-buyers coming in, the companies that rent to the supposedly disappearing retail sector are seeing a sizable move higher today.
    • Leading are the especially beaten-down non-Class A mall players like PREIT (PEI +8.4%), and CBL & Associates (CBL +5.2%).
    • Tanger Factor (SKT +3.2%) this morning announced plans to buy back up to $125M of  company stock over the next two years.
    • Simon Property (SPG +3.1%), General Growth (GGP +3.8%), Kimco (KIM +3%), Kite Realty (KRG +3%)
    • Single-tenant players: Realty Income (O +1%), Vereit (VER +2.4%), National Retail (NNN+1.6%)
    • Its shares down 29% this year, and under particular pressure over the last few weeks of this retail landlord-related meltdown, Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (NYSE:SKTannounces authorization to buy back up to $125M in stock over the next two years.
    • At the current price, that would be enough to repurchase nearly 5M shares, or 5% of the float.
    • The company will be able to fund some of that buyback thanks to the closing of the sale this week of its Westbrook, CT center for $40M, or a cap rate of 10%. That center was 90% occupied, but generating average tenant sales per square foot 44% below the Tanger portfolio average. FFO per share this year is expected to take a $0.025 hit thanks to the sale.
    • CEO Steven Tanger: "We believe that Tanger shares are trading at a significant discount to the value of our high-quality portfolio of assets."

    Oil back over $50 per barrel on report of output cut extension

    • via Reuters
    • Ahead of next week's meeting of the cartel, an OPEC panel is considering the option of deepening and extending the crude output cut deal, according to sources.
    • Saudi Arabia and Russia (not in OPEC) have already agreed on the need to extend the current output cut regime until next March.
    • Black gold has pushed back through $50 per barrel, now up 1.4% on the session. USO +1.35% premarket
    • Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) says it will start importing its own gasoline into Mexico before the end of the year to supply the Mobil-brand gas stations it plans to open in the country.
    • XOM's director of fuels in Mexico says the company could participate in open season auctions, which will be staggered throughout this year, that allow private companies to bid for access to surplus pipeline capacity within state-owned Pemex's existing network.
    • XOM expects to open its first service stations in Mexico later this year and will sell gasoline and diesel fuels.

    • Nigeria’s manager-level oil union threatens to continue a strike indefinitely at Exxon Mobil's (XOM +0.3%) local unit after talks with the company to end the action broke down.
    • The dispute over at least 83 local workers the union says were wrongfully terminated is now in its eleventh day, and has been referred to an arbitration panel by the government’s minister for labor.
    • XOM operates the terminal for Qua Iboe crude, which is Nigeria’s biggest export grade.

    U.S. drillers add another 16 rigs for 18th straight weekly gain

    • The total U.S. rig count rose for the 18th straight week, adding another 16 to 901 following last week's gain of 8, according to Baker Hughes' latest weekly survey.
    • Oil rigs added 8 to 720, also climbing for an 18th consecutive week, while gas rigs also gained 8 to 190; one rig is labeled miscellaneous.
    • A year ago at this time, a total of 885 rigs were in operation in the U.S., 712 oil rigs and 172 gas rigs.

    Investor lawsuits pile up against Barrick Gold over Argentina cyanide spill

    • Several class action lawsuits have been filed against Barrick Gold (ABX +0.8%), alleging the miner misled shareholders about the March cyanide spill at the flagship Veladero mine in Argentina, the third spill at the mine’s leach pad in two years, Financial Post reports.
    • At least four law firms announced this week that they are seeking investors to join class actions involving claims that ABX violated federal securities laws in its statements surrounding the spill.
    • ABX said in the immediate aftermath of the pipeline rupture causing the spill that it did not expect the incident to have a material impact, even though local government officials had placed restrictions on its operations.
    • ABX also left the mine’s annual production guidance unchanged at 770K-830K oz. of gold at all-in sustaining costs of $840-$940/oz., but during its Q1 earnings release cut its outlook to 630K-730K oz. at all-in sustaining costs of $890-$990/oz.

    Report: Boeing spooked by Canada's threat to jet deal, seeks talks

    • Boeing's (BA +1.4%) defense unit reportedly is seeking talks with Canadian officials, spooked by a government threat to scrap the purchase of 18 Super Hornet fighter jets.
    • Canada hinted yesterday that it could change its planned purchase if the U.S. backed Boeing's claims that Canadian plane maker Bombardier (OTCQX:BDRAFOTCQX:BDRBF) dumped its CSeries jetliners in the U.S. market.
    • Boeing made the calculation that making its complaint was worth the risk, but the company now is said to be concerned and seeks to communicate with Canadian government decision makers to mitigate the possible impact to the Super Hornet sale.
    • Net income of $802.4M, or $2.49 per share vs. $495.4M, or $1.56 per share in the same quarter a year ago.
    • Worldwide net sales increased 5% Y/Y to $8.287B. Segment Sales: Agriculture & Turf. +1%; Construction & Forestry +7%.
    • "We are seeing modestly higher overall demand for our products, with farm machinery sales in South America experiencing a strong recovery," CEO Samuel Allen declared.
    • Updated outlook for fiscal 2017: Equipment sales and net sales are projected to increase about 9% (vs. an increase of 4%), while net income is anticipated to be about $2B (vs. $1.5B).
    • DE +9.2% premarket
    • FQ2 results
    • Also moving: CNH Industrial (NYSE:CNHI+4.6% and Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT+1.8% on the positive outlook, while AGCO, Lindsay (NYSE:LNN) and Toro (NYSE:TTC) are on watch.

    • Lumber Liquidators (NYSE:LL) sails in early trading after Oppenheimer jumps in with an upgrade on the retailer to Outperform from Market Perform.
    • The investment firm sees a prolonged recovery for the lumber seller with strong tailwinds at its back. The higher mix of pro and installation sales by Lumber Liquidators is seen as a positive.
    • LL +5.68% premarket to $27.70.

  100. NYT:  Trump told Russians firing "nut job" Comey eased pressure from investigation.  Mueller might not be finishing his investigation before Trump resigns.

    • McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) is pushing franchisees to upgrade their kitchen equipment.
    • Documents obtained by Bloomberg suggest that each store will have to dole out about $100K for the equipment aimed at expanding the McCafe lineup, improving food quality and new product introduction.
    • While results at McDonald's are in an improving trend, management is still trying pulling levers to improve traffic and market share.
    • In an exclusive conference call with his Action Alerts PLUS investment club earlier this week, Jim Cramer said Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) is "restoring order" to its mobile payments system after it was the culprit behind a soft FQ2.
    • If the company can show things are better by the end of FQ3, the shares should go to $70, and he'd be a buyer if the stock fell to $58.
    • With today's 3.1% gain to $61.67, Starbucks has more than erased its late-April post-earnings dip.
    • Previously: Comparable sales a touch light at Starbucks (April 27)
    • Jack In The Box (JACK) has Morgan Stanley exploring options for the Qdoba business after concluding that the company's valuation was being hurt by having two separate business models at work.
    • The chain has also hit a rough patch of late (possibly Chipotle connected) and is expected to post a 1% to 2% drop in same-store sales for the full year.
    • Shares of Jack In The Box are up 4% for the week and are showing off a +39% one-year return.
    • Previously: Jack In The Box beats by $0.07, revenue in-line (May 16)
    • Previously: Margins tighten at Jack In The Box (May 16)
    • Previously: Caution in the air on Jack In The Box (May 18)
    • Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB): Q3 EPS of $0.59 misses by $0.05.
    • Revenue of $1.85B (-1.1% Y/Y) misses by $20M.
    • Management comments: "This was a challenging quarter across the food industry as top-line growth remained scarce, especially in center store categories. The industry, including Campbell, experienced significant consumption declines early in the calendar year. These industry trends coincided with weak consumer spending, which was at its lowest growth rate since 2009. While we rebounded with sales growth in March and April, we were unable to offset the earlier declines.
    • “In this context, Campbell delivered competitive performance. A bright spot in the quarter was our Global Biscuits and Snacks division, which delivered top-line and double-digit bottom-line growth. Looking ahead as we finish the fiscal year, we expect Global Biscuits and Snacks to maintain its positive momentum, and we will also be cycling the C-Fresh protein drink recall from last year."
    • Press Release

    Image result for basquiat sotheby's
    • The sale of a Jean-Michel Basquiat painting for $110.5M is creating some shockwaves in the art world.
    • The piece is only the tenth ever to go for over $100M and places sixth on the all-time list of highest amount paid at an auction for artwork.
    • Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa was the winner at the Sotheby's (BID +1.7%) auction for the piece titled "Untitled" (see it here).
    • J.C. Penney (JCP -0.1%) plans to jump into B2B by selling appliances, linens, mattresses and furniture to lodging companies and multiunit residential industries.
    • "Our entry into the B2B program reinforces our home refresh initiative, while providing new and innovative ways to achieve sustainable growth and profitability," explains CEO Marvin Ellison.
    • "The idea first stemmed from hotel operators who were already ordering large volume purchases of bedding, bath and window treatments at," he adds.
    • Some industry insider think the move is the right strategy for the retailer, noting it's an area outside of the Amazon sphere of direct influence.

    • Shares of Foot Locker are down 8.8% in early action after comparable sales growth of 0.5% in Q1 misses the expectation of analysts for a 1.4% rise.
    • "The slow start we experienced in February, which we believe was largely due to the delay in income tax refunds, was unfortunately not fully offset by much stronger sales in March and April," explains Foot Locker CEO Richard Johnson.
    • Despite the soft Q1 sales, Buckingham Research is in with a defense, calling the buy thesis "intact" and shares still attractive. Foot Locker is swapping hands at $64 in the premarket session, the lowest level it has seen this year.
    • Previously: Foot Locker misses by $0.02, misses on revenue (May 19)
    • Previously: More on Foot Locker's Q1 (May 19)

    • Shoe stocks are reeling after Foot Locker posted disappointing results, headline by a tepid 0.5% pace for comparable sales growth.
    • Decliners on a day that the broad market is in positive territory: Wolverine World Wide (NYSE:WWW-3.0%, Steven Madden (NASDAQ:SHOO-2.3%, Caleres (NYSE:CAL-2.1%, Crocs (NASDAQ:CROX-1.9%, Nike (NYSE:NKE-1.5%, Rocky Brands (NASDAQ:RCKY-1.5%, Shoe Carnival (NASDAQ:SCVL-3.5%, Finish Line (NASDAQ:FINL-7.1%, Genesco (NYSE:GCO-5.0%, DSW (NYSE:DSW-1.0%, Nike (NKE-1.0%, Under Armour (NYSE:UAA-1.9%.
    • Previously: More on Foot Locker's Q1 (May 19)
    • Previously: Foot Locker runs backward after earnings (May 19)
    • via Bloomberg
    • Q1 billing growth of 16% was better than expected, says JPMorgan bull Mark Murphy, with some of largest deals in company history closed. Implied Q2 billings growth of 15% is likely conservative. He lifts his PT to $102 from $95.
    • Also a bull, Piper's Alex Zukin isn't worried about Q2's billings forecast either. His channel checks see an improvement in the selling environment. He raises his PT to $105 from $100.
    • Another bull, Cowen's Derrick Wood says the company's execution on large deals "remains impressive."
    • Any bears? Well, Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) has 41 buys, 4 holds, and 1 sell on the Street, and none of those five are speaking up at the moment. The stock's up 1% to $88.66 today, and ahead 30% YTD.
    • Previously: beats and raises as revenues grow 25% (May 18)

    Only in America could something like this be necessary:  ShotSpotter files for IPO

    • Gun detection service ShotSpotter (Pending:SSTI) files for an IPO.
    • The company plans to offer 2.8M shares in a price range of $10 to $12.
    • SEC Form S-1 dive:  "When a potential gunfire incident is detected by our sensors, our software uses quantitative computational analysis and artificial intelligence methods to precisely locate and classify the sound. A digital alert containing map and location information about the incident is transmitted directly to law enforcement or security personnel through any computer or to iPhone or Android mobile devices."
    • Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT+2.1% premarket after reporting better than expected FQ2 earnings and a 45% Y/Y revenue increase, as well as issuing FQ3 earnings and revenue guidance above analyst consensus.
    • Stifel hikes its AMAT price target to $55 from $50, saying the company is well positioned to outpace the $40B WFE market in 2017 and its long-term momentum is the best in the industry; the firm continues to believe the stock needs to be re-rated and valued more appropriately as a growth or industrial stock and not as a cyclical name.
    • Cowen lifts its target to $50 from $45, saying AMAT delivered high expectations and its 2018 commentary is "incredibly bullish for it only being May… this is a different backdrop and certainly a different AMAT, one that is quite literally enabling a number of huge tech inflections."
    • Source:

    • BAML's Kash Rangan pulls his Underperform rating on Autodesk (ADSK +16%), calling management's guidance conservative given the strong Q1 beat. He hikes his price target to $115 from $53.
    • RBC's Matthew Hedberg upgrades to Outperform from Sector Perform, and lifts his price target to $125 from $95. A path to $150 (35% upside) in two years is reasonable, he says.
    • Coming along for the ride is engineering software maker PTC (PTC +8.5%).
    • Previously: Autodesk +5.9% on Q1 beat, solid guidance (May 18)
    • Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA+2.7% premarket after Bernstein initiates coverage with an Outperform rating and $165 price target.
    • While Bernstein believes NVDA's video game business is sustainable, the firm is particularly bullish on the prospect of the company's machine learning and self-driving car initiatives.
    • Bernstein models for FY 2017 results that are ahead of market consensus, seeing $3.54/share in earnings on revenue of $8.25B vs. Wall Street's expectations of $3.10 EPS on $8.23B in revenue.
    • Facebook's (NASDAQ:FB) "Order Food" option on both the web and mobile is now being offered to select users.
    • It's an expansion of a deal from late last year with and Slice in which users could place orders with supported restaurants from their own Facebook pages. Now, the entire process – from ordering to checkout – will take place on Facebook.
    • Source: Sarah Perez at Techcrunch
    • GrubHub (NYSE:GRUB) has tumbled 3.5% on the news.

    Shanghai Disney hits traffic milestone

    • Disney (NYSE:DIS) discloses that the Shanghai Disney Resort topped 10M visitors since opening in June of 2016.
    • The company hit the milestone faster than CEO Bob Iger predicted a few months ago. The eleven months it took to bring in 10M visitors was also about six weeks shorter than what analysts anticipated.
    • "The resort’s rapidly growing popularity and extremely high levels of guest satisfaction add to our confidence in the growing demand for our attraction and entertainment," noted Shanghai Disney GM Philippe Gas.
    • DIS +0.56% premarket to $107.28.

    Apple a day keeps glucose monitoring at bay

    • Tim Cook has been spotted at the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) campus test-driving a device that tracks blood sugar and was connected to his Apple Watch.
    • It follows a report from CNBC last month, which said the company has a team in Palo Alto working on the "holy grail" for diabetes: Non-invasive and continuous glucose monitoring.
    • Current trackers on the market rely on tiny sensors that penetrate the skin.

  101. first time in 5 Fridays that TSLA is down.

  102. In the LTP, let's sell 5 SKT Dec $30 puts for $4.70 to get a foot in the door on that one.  

  103. indexes are falling

  104. "White House Official said to be a person of interest in Russia related investigation, according to Washington Post ."

    Saw this cited as the reason.

  105. FTR/Jabob – The same no good reason they kept going down.  They are presenting at that conference on Monday, as I noted on yesterday morning, when I said this may be the last chance to buy them cheap and laid out my case for people to buy them.   But F me, right?  

    They spent $8.5Bn, which added now $6Bn (70%) to their debt (as they've already made $2.5Bn back) which has increased their revenues by $3.4Bn (62%) and cash-flow is up 0.54/share (45%) and they haven't even begun to realize ANY integration benefits – only the pain in the first year.  The cash-flow and revenues will remain elevated ($1.74/share on 1.2Bn shares) and the debt will eventually go away and you'll be left with a typical phone company that cranks out money quarter after quarter.  These negative articles are written to scare the retailers out of the stock while the patient money loads up for the long haul

    You say VZ is so smart but there was a time when VZ was expanding to challenge T and looked like a debt bomb too.  People said the same thing about them at the time – this is the same playbook being run on FTR. 

     OMG, it never ends with this lunatic!  

    President Called Comey ‘Nut Job’ in Oval Office Meeting


    • President Trump told Russian officials in the Oval Office that firing James B. Comey had relieved “great pressure” on him.
    • “He was crazy, a real nut job,” Mr. Trump said of Mr. Comey, according a White House document.

    Indexes/Learner – Now we're back to worrying about Trump/Russia.  So silly.  

    Meanwhile, Oil and Gasoline held up – I'm going to be so pissed Monday if they are higher. 

  106. You know, I do kind of like that painting…

  107. STJ – QCOM catching some love today.

  108. AR – Thanks Phil.   I did not play the RB bounce because I was margined out on TSLA.  Things have stabilized and not taking on any water now.  I am going to be patient and wait for more obvious channel riders. 

  109. Right, if I were a billionaire I would probably buy that grotesque painting.

  110. Phil – "???/Naybob – Was there a sale at the peyote store today?"

    Nah. Peyote would have made that Basquiat or the Bea Arthur nude (1.9M) look good. Just another purple micro dot or window pane 70's flashback.  Pretty vivid, almost like in Altered States, speaking of which…

    8800 – "Anyone have any sense of what else – fundamental or otherwise – lurking in the wings might put us over 240 ?"

    Short version: Eurodollar futures $4T in notional are net long commercial (banks, corps), means they are betting on lower short term cost of loan funds (LIBOR). This is in the extreme as it represents 30% of open interest. 

    If the whales are right, rates stay the same or decline, should be a June swoon, then up, up and away. They must be hedging a huge number of short bond positions, because if they are wrong, and the Fed does what I have Nattered about before, or short term rates go up for any reason, it would be the mother of all wrong way bets.  Have a Great Weekend All.  Smokin, drinkin, singin and dancin like a Hinchi Indian and Out.  

  111. That guy's pretty cool, had a rock band, founded a clothing line that caught on and turned it into department stores.  Good for $3+Bn at 42.  

    Don't forget, when you have that much money, you don't even see the home the painting is in very often.  

    • According to the Washington Post, the Russia investigation has identified a senior White House adviser as a person of interest.
    • The probe, say sources, is about to move from largely behind-the-scenes activity to one involving conducting interviews and using a grand jury to issue subpoenas.
    • Whether this means criminal charges are near, or will result at all, is a different story, say those sources.
    • Stocks have moved off their best levels since the news hit, but the S&P 500 remains higher by 0.6% on the day
    • Cree (CREE +7.2%) surges as much as 8.5% on news that CEO Chuck Swoboda plans to step down, as Needham analyst Edwin Mok says the transition may lead to a spinoff of the Wolfspeed Power/RF business.
    • If Cree ends up hiring a new CEO with a long history in lighting, the new chief may focus on lighting and shed non-core assets, Mok says.
    • Separately, Cowen analysts say the stock reaction likely is due to Cree also reaffirming its FQ4 forecasts, as "trends in the lighting industry have been soft the past two quarters, so [it is] nice to see people reiterate guidance."
    • Source: Bloomberg First Word
    • Weight Watchers (NYSE:WTWspikes 9.9% to a new 52-week high of $26.31.
    • The company hasn't released any news today and Oprah's Twitter account is quiet, but the high level of short interest out on the consumer stock has been known to juice its volatility.
    • It's been a bumpy week for Macau stocks amid what could be a case of loose translation.
    • The sector traded up and down after media reports from Chinese-language sites indicated the gaming operators might have to rebid their licenses before Union Gaming refuted the intepretation.
    • "We think a comment made about the Big 6 needing to 'apply' for renewal was somehow misconstrued as needing to apply for renewal as part of some upcoming competitive public tender process," notes Union Gaming.
    • "We note that the concept of the Big 6 operators having to apply for renewal has always been built into the system as the licenses simply don't renew automatically after the end of 20 years," adds the firm.
    • Macau casino stocks: Wynn Macau (OTCPK:WYNMFOTCPK:WYNMYWYNN), Sands China (OTCPK:SCHYYOTCPK:SCHYFLVS), MGM China (OTCPK:MCHVFOTCPK:MCHVYMGM), Galaxy Entertainment (OTCPK:GXYEF), SJM Holdings (OTCPK:SJMHFOTCPK:SJMHY), Melco Resorts & Entertainment (NASDAQ:MLCO).
    • Related ETF: BJK

  112. Well, it's a great recovery but we did start the week 20 points higher.  Still, not a bearish finish:

    Have a great weekend, 

    - Phil

    By the way – does anyone know a good way to go to Europe June 29th to July 16th that doesn't cost $1,000/person?  These airfares have gone nuts! 

  113. Check out

  114. QCOM / Albo – They are not taking the hits laying down… And now they have this new technology that lets you charge your EV while driving! This could be a huge hit 10 years from now. Still bullish!

  115. for business and first class discounting.  Travel Safely. 

  116. Mortgages / Phil – Did Moynihan really say that they would love to change regulations to allow only for 10% down payments on mortgages. I assume for the "No Doc" loans! What could go wrong again with that? Don't these guys ever learn?

  117. I guess Comey won't be holding back much now that he knows how Trump feels about him… We have a president that oozes class. What's the over and under for how many people he offends on his coming trip?

  118. Doesn't how many he will offend = how many he will meet?

  119. That's probably close Tangle!

    As far as the person of interest close to the president who is being suspected, I hope it's Jared! Maybe he won't come back from the trip and seek asylum at the Ecuador embassy in London. I heard that they will be getting some vacancy there soon.

  120. Nattering Nay

    Catalysts for SPY >240

    You may be correct about sht term rates being a positive, but if the new revelations this aftn surrounding Trump, his Comey comments and his long rumored associations are factual then one could opine that higher rates are the proverbial snowball in the path of the avalanche. Not saying that the market wouldn't rally on a Trump departure – or strong indication thereof – but that in the meantime, before the fact, the asociated uncertainty might drive prices lower temporarily. Thanks for your thoughts on rates.

  121. Mortgages- 10% DP loans would be a great way to get the purchase market & economy going (assuming the mortgage insurance required was reasonable).  It was all the No Doc / Interest Only / Option Arm garbage that blew up the market.  Hopefully those products never resurface again (yeah I know, wishful thinking!)

  122. OK, the news coming up now is really not good for the administration I think. They are now investigating a possible cover-up at the White House. It's not been 150 days yet!

  123. Phil / Europe fares


    Norwegian  flight from FLL to Oslo  and EU cities for around $ 600, try

  124. Best flights for 1st class,  comfort and care: British Air, and next is Emirate Air.  Cost, don't ask!!!

  125. Not a bearish finish, but with all the news perhaps setting up for another volatile week.  Investors have to figure all these tax reforms are going to take time if they happen,  and until the fed meeting,  perhaps only negative political news catalysts.  I think we are headed for more downside after today's bounce… hold on to the svxy put spread

  126. Learner, as Phil has said and even our German friend Yodi, it is a market of stocks, each one capable of up, down, sideways and no movement at all.

  127. Phil-flight   Is that with abuse or without? So many factors to consider…

    I would have assumed you'd bought that catamaran by now.


  128. a beautiful morning in Japan!

    ETH at 137. Paid for the whole trip. Plus a little …. ;)

  129. pstas: CO2 ….. hmmm….

    so the average american emits about 16 metric tonnes per year, which is down from 18-19 a decade or go, so some progress there at least.

    Air travel is the most carbon intensive, however, those numbers are a bit off. A modern wide body jet burns about 700-800 gallons of fuel per hour. SF<->JFK roundtrip is probably about 10 – 10.5 hours. A gallon of fuel release 9 kg of CO2, so the math there is ~70,000 kg per roundtrip flight. That accounting is the easy part. Now the per capita part – well, if you fly with a bunch of other people, say 200 souls, you would each be responsible for 350 kg each (0.35 tonnes), so not sure where the "2-3 tons" number comes from. You could compartmentalize it based on different criteria such as "occupancy space" so that first class passengers are "responsible" for more since there seats take up more room, and otherwise cause a plane that could hold more capacity to now hold less, or the like (say, "tax" them at 150% of the actual carbon per capita and each economy passenger at 90%), but that can start to get silly.

    I think what is interesting is to consider the economic element more than the pure carbon element, a concept I call Economic Carbon. Consider for example that many people flying are engaging in some form of productivity (for work, etc) wherein they would need to engage in some form of travel, many of which would be less carbon intensive, but would also have hampered productivity. So to say "you shouldn't fly to save the planet!" doesn't include this element in the entire equation. This is part and parcel to the idea I have of using a crypto to provide a reward incentive to renewable producers. It is literally a reward for a productive activity – e.g. a home solar producer receives the credits (coins), but wants to sell some of them, so picture a traveler that wants to voluntarily 'offset' the carbon intensiveness of choice they made (e.g., to fly), then this can be easily calculated and they can purchase the credits.

    Taken a step further they don't even need to engage in a direct purchase activity, they can simply engage in this carbon economy indirectly, for example using coins to buy coffee, thereby promoting the ecosystem much in the way Bitcoin works (and has value per coin due to money velocity). Remember that renewable producers are receiving the newly mined coin rewards, so they have more incentive to produce. A widely adopted concept such as this one I call Social Carbon. It replaces the need for 1) any gov't intervention, 2) carbon taxes or cap and trade schemes.

  130. Phil I was playing oil long all day looking for it to get to 50.90 which is 2.5% up on the day, and I finally quit at 50.80 just after 4pm. Didn't it close at exactly the 2.5% mark. Amazing. So, let's look for the weak pull back which is all I think we're going to get and see when we go over 52 from there.

  131. BD- as a product of a Catholic grade school education firmly administered by the holy Sisters of St. Casimir's, seems I recall the Church engaging in hustling indulgences " a way to reduce the amount of punishment one has to undergo for sins"

    Doesn't affect the math but sort of rhymes? Don't mean to detract from your efforts as it is a serious issue. 

  132. pstas – indulgence, indeed! and as the son of a minister, I was taught that is between the individual and God; and what we have with carbon is between each other.

  133. BITCOIN 2000 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  134. Thanks Phil for introducing me to "other things"  …The painter, Jean-Michel Basquiat was bent from birth for tragedy. I didn't know of him but Bloomberg did a good job describing his background.  He was definitely on a quest for the understanding what it was he needed to do and unfortunately found it on the end of needle…dead at a young age.  Sad, and all that money did nothing to buy him happiness and discover what was  his "quest for life".  Maybe he found it in death. Maybe Vincent Van Gogh did…goodbook by the way.

  135. Phil – "By the way – does anyone know a good way to go to Europe June 29th to July 16th that doesn't cost $1,000/person?  These airfares have gone nuts! "

    Airfare June 29th to July 16th – Those fares are SNAFU for that season.  After July 30th is when they drop fares. Just went LAX – MXP for $510 RT.  Seasonality, its only all you can eat, if you can get it. 

    You want non stop, interior seat vs wing strap down, primate vs livestock/poultry section on those EXACT dates when everybody doubles the fare. Best we could find near your Hoboken digs below.

    RT to the Emerald Isle, home of colcannon, soda bread, lamb stew, corned beef, black pudding, Guinness, Jameson and lots of Pubs. Erin go braghless, timing is everything,  and Out.

    JFK – DUB Non Stop $788 RT American

  136. I have a question about investing in natural gas.  I made some money off of UNG last year as it was the trade of the year.  But since then, Phil has been investing in natural gas futures because of some issues with how UNG loses more value than it should over time.  However, I do not have a futures account and don't plan to open one in the near future (My broker would allow me to open a futures account, but it would have to be a separate account from my regular brokerage account, and I don't feel that I have enough funds to separate my investments into two different accounts at this point).  Also, I want to invest in stocks or ETFs that I can also mirror with my retirement brokerage account.

    So my main question is this:  Are there any other ETFs or products that don't require a futures account, that are a better way to invest in natural gas than UNG?

  137. Phil and fellow PSW's members,  We have our cash, securities and trading accounts in TOS, Fidelity and B of A.  I am seriously looking at Charles Schwab. We previously had Vanguard for many years but found they were very set in their "procedures".  Do you have a recommendation of a good, responsive, hands on and reasonability cost effective brokerage firm for some who is a retired, self directed (so far) and  financially comfortable senior??  Thanks in advance and have a great week end.  Sun is finally here in the PNW.

  138. I thought you would be interested in the following story from The Wall Street Journal.

    Peggy Noonan: Democracy Is Not Your Plaything

  139. Phil – Markets, with Comey testifying in 7-8 days we may not see new market highs unti he's done. Do you think we may have finally seen the market rollover as it realizes Trumps agenda is not going to happen? I would also offer that the USD has seen its high, until a global crisis forces a flight to safety. 

    What did you think of Noonan's piece?  I agree with her most of the time and this time. FYI: I am also a 4th Turning follower

  140. Ernest. UNG.  Not sure what can be 'better'?  They are all different.  Not following why you can't have a futures account with your brokerage   That is how they determine how much margin you have to trade  My TOS is setup that way. Less than $100k.  

  141. BDC — Thanks for all your great commentary on the crypto market. I just wish I could understand the block chain concept better. My question is regarding SolarCoins. We travel in an RV full time and have a solar array that charges our batteries all the time the sun is shining.  It isn't much, though, just 600 watts of panels. And we don't always use battery power if we hapen to have a grid connection. Is there any way to be part of the SolarCoin thing in my case! Thanks.

  142. Carbon Emissions… It's not fair to compare European emmisions to US emissions.  Europeans don't have to fly to Europe, they are already there.  Also North America has way more cows than Europe and we all know what bloated gas bags those things are.  If we all go vegan we could cut emissions drastically.  Some may argue that Vegan diets cause gassy humans which would make sense but lets take things one step at a time and slaughter the cows first

  143. PSW

    I'm proud to announce an addition to our family. Yesterday my wife gave birth to a beautiful, healthy baby boy! We are so excited and looking forward to our new lives with him. 

  144. jelutuk - I can certainly help you be a part of greencoin. As for solarcoin, I would go to their forum and ask. GreenCoin awards a certain amount of coins each day to all participants that entered readings for that day. So the award is variable. Solarcoin by contrast awards 1 coin per MWh of energy accrued. Without a meter, I'm not sure they would be able to account for you but again you would need to inquire in their forums ( With a current value of $0.17 per MWh (per 1000 kWh), and with your panels being at a maximum capacity 0.6 kW, you're not going to make much with them. If you're interested in Solarcoin I would simply purchase them honestly (for example, I have a small hoard of them — no need to miss out on "just in case" type investments, right?). 

    My how-to guide for getting starting with Bitcoin and the 1000-altcoin universe is here. Let me know if you have interest in GreenCoin. They can awarded without a meter but there's a little more work involved ensuring solar power is being generated and usefully used, but that can be worked through via emails, etc. You can participate in both so it is not either-or, just as info.

  145. Hey look, Senator Orrin Hatch and I agree on something!

    Bitcoin 2050. Crypto now $71B. Tulip bulbs are so 17th Century

    JeffDoc CONGRATS!!!!

    Jabo FU!!! (for no reason!!!!)…. :D :D

  146. President Donald Trump’s Oval Office boast to Russian officials will almost certainly prompt a more immediate legal development.<p>The new special counsel investigation into possible collusion between associates of President Donald Trump and Russia is just getting started — and it could take years to …

  147. In a surprising move, Tesla is now extending free Supercharging to all current vehicles.<p>Tesla had previously announced the change of the program to a paid model after 400 kWh per year, which was supposed to take place starting January 1st. It later extended the deadline for two weeks before making …

  148. The Intelligence Community is the new TMZ.<p>”May we never forget our history”<p>Pro-jihadist subreddit hosts “AMA” with journalist accused by MSM …

  149. The Intelligence Community is the new TMZ.<p>”May we never forget our history”<p>Pro-jihadist subreddit hosts “AMA” with journalist accused by MSM …

  150. The fortunes of the middle classes across Western Europe are moving in different directions. Some nations are experiencing both growing incomes and …

  151. SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s economy will likely expand around 6.8 percent in the second quarter of 2017, the State Information Center said in an article published in the state-owned China Securities Journal on Saturday.<p>The State Information Center is an official think tank affiliated with the …

  152. Joanne Mogavero suffered first- and second-degree burns after coffee spilled on her lap, her lawyers say.<p>Starbucks has been ordered to pay a Florida woman $100,000 after she suffered first- and second-degree burns from their coffee, her lawyers announced.<p>Joanne Mogavero, 43, endured permanent …

  153. The list of things that can be created with 3-D printers keeps getting longer: jewelry, art, guns, food, medical devices and, now, mouse ovaries.<p>Scientists have used a 3-D printer to create a mouse ovary capable of producing healthy offspring. And researchers hope to create replacement human …

  154. Brokerage/Thugger –  I use Charles Schwab (CS) for my IRA and Options Express (subsidiary of CS) for options trading, however, it is NOT ideal for future trading.  But, from a cost effective and customer service (i.e. hands-on), they have been very solid, coupled with reducing their fee structure may make them the right choice for you.  With all that said, this was before I stumbled into PSW and I mindlessly let my advisor manage the account (not very good returns).  Now… I am playing around with a ThinkOrSwim (TOS) virtual account and think it is a much better platform for someone wanting to take control of their financial future.  So, it really depends on your objective/preferences, which is why I am in the process of switching.  And, after reading through the archives here… I'd venture a guess most are using TOS.   Hope that helps…

    BabyBoy/JeffDoc — Congrats!!  

    FXP/Phil –  The short May17 28 Call expired, time to sell another? 

  155. Bezos interview – in case you missed it.. must watch:

  156. Jeffdoc – New baby boy, congrats and enjoy.

  157. Aloha Joseph, thank for your comments!  I think you will find TOS a great asset in options trading. 

    However, they need a lot of help on journaling, P & L by trade (spreads particularly), and expirations — the nuts and bolts of trading come down to money and risk management. By the way, T D Ameritrade's INVESTOOLS is a great asset in picking up the basics and also stepping into the upper division courses.  I have switched my options trading to them from Fidelity—did that about year and half ago, only after approx. three year cursory review.  Fidelity is falling into the same trap Vanguard has. To big and mechanical… fit the slot, please keep the line moving. 

    Money management dictates for me the necessity of having more than one brokerage firm for my options trading—I don't have a staff of good people like Phil.  : )

    Watch out on the futures trading, it is not for the faint of heart…mostly daily, by the minute management of positions…admittedly, I could use a refresher course and plan to take one as I was flying high with the Hunt brothers a number of years ago—yikes, what was I thinking.  The good thing was I didn't loose to much of the profits. Respectively, Newt 

  158. JeffDoc-congrats to you and yours. Always a wonderful time when welcoming new family. 

    Phil if you have Amex rewards points, using them on Iberia airlines which flies to Spain and then to other European cities got me and my family there for $0 a few years back. 

    Lastly with 74000 open contracts and one last day, should we maybe see one last dip before 2:30 Monday in your opinion?

  159. I'm sure you knew but I was referring to oil futures in my last comment 

  160. congrats Jeffdoc!!!

  161. Congrats Jeffdoc!!

  162. Congrats jeffdoc!

  163. JeffDoc – congrats on your new arrival

  164. Jeffdoc… for the new member of ths world.


    Trump in ME,  this speech was not bad.

  165. Congrats JeffDoc!!

  166. So happy to hear, JeffDoc! All the best to you and yours. Congratulations on starting this and amazing chapter of your life.

  167. China’s 1.4 billion people are building up an appetite that is changing the way the world grows and sells food. The Chinese diet is becoming more …

  168. Bloomberg News<p><i>Story Developing…</i><p>Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal.<p>LEARN MORE

  169. Recent poll shows that Republican hard-liners are out of step of with America when opposing gay marriage<p>A new poll from Gallup shows record support for same-sex marriage. Survey results released Monday show that 64 percent of Americans are in favor of the Supreme Court’s 2015 decision to legalize …

  170. <b>Innovator</b> Samuel Mazin<b><br>Age</b> 39<br>Chief technology officer of RefleXion Medical Inc., a company with 60 employees in Hayward, Calif.<p><b>Form and …

  171. Spring dumped so much rain on the U.S. that most of the country is drought-free for the first time in decades. But in parched Florida and Georgia, …

  172. congrats jeffdoc

  173. Courtesy of Sov Man’s Simon Black, here are several of the most bizarre legal anecdotes to take place in the US and around the globe over the past …

  174. Documentary makers explore how Russia could have damning intelligence about Trump, and Putin could try to use it<p>As the U.S. continues its investigations into the Trump campaign’s possible collusion with Russia to influence the U.S. presidential election, the scandal has evolved into a potential …

  175. BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Euro zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund will seek a deal on Monday on Greek debt relief that balances the IMF’s demand for a clear “when and how” with Germany’s preference for “only if necessary” and “details later”.<p>Without the deal, no new loans can be …

  176. “There is one and only one social responsibility of business,” the economist Milton Friedman famously wrote in 1962. And that is “to use its …

  177. Alec Baldwin pursing his lips, squinting his eyes, saying “Jina.” Melissa McCarthy plowing a podium into a crowd of reporters. Kate McKinnon pivoting from a self-absorbed Hillary Clinton to a deer-in-the-headlights Kellyanne Conway.<p>As “Saturday Night Live” wraps up its 42nd season this weekend, …

  178. Despite accelerating progress towards fully autonomous cars and trucks, <i>many people still do not accept the obvious fact it’s going to happen soon.</i><p>For …

  179. A growing number of House Republicans are facing physical threats from angry constituents in their districts, leading many to fear for their …

  180. The hypocrisy of America’s support for unelected despots in the oil-rich Gulf states is not new, but Donald Trump’s lavish praise for them on Sunday, …

  181. When asked if he thinks the House Republicans will suffer a setback in 2018, Ryan just said “Blah blah blah blah”<p>During an interview with conservative talk radio host Hugh Hewitt on Friday, House Speaker Paul Ryan tried to downplay the possibility that the Republican Party could lose control of the …

  182. For commodity traders operating in the Information Age, just good old trading doesn’t cut it anymore.<p>Unlike the stock market in which transactions …

  183. by Cognitive Dissonance – May 21, 2017 1:06 PM<p>Rather than seek meaning in life from external sources, they infuse life with meaning and purpose, …

  184. More than 100 students walked out to draw attention to Pence’s harmful policies.<p>More than 100 Notre Dame students walked out of their graduation …

  185. Trump’s attorney didn’t want him to sign a form authenticating the accuracy of his financial disclosures<p>An attorney who was helping Donald Trump submit financial disclosure forms earlier this year tried to avoid making the president put his signature to them certifying that the information was …

  186. RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — During last year’s campaign, President Trump said he thought that “Islam hates us,” and, intentionally or not, he gave many Muslims the impression that it was mutual.<p>He called for “a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States.” He engaged in a charged …

  187. China’s demographic time bomb continues to tick.<p>Even after the government cleared the way for couples to have a second child, working women are …

  188. One of James Comey’s friends is praising the former FBI director and warning that nothing is scarier to President Trump than someone who tells the …

  189. This will be unpleasantly earnest, but having witnessed the atmospherics the past 10 days it’s what I think needs saying:<p>Everyone, get serious.<p>Democracy is not your plaything.<p>This is not a game.<p>The president of the United States has produced a building crisis that is unprecedented in our history. …

  190. Jeffdoc, congrats. Its always great to hear good news. 

  191. President Trump’s new budget proposal is even turning some Republicans against him<p>President Trump’s budget proposal on Tuesday will include massive cuts to Medicaid despite his administration insisting that Medicaid would not be slashed. There will also be changes to anti-poverty programs “that …

  192. Four weeks after President Trump took office, his sons held a red-carpet event for their Trump International Golf Club in Dubai. Guests munched on …

  193. House Republicans don’t know which conversations were recorded or whether any new tapes will be leaked<p>A new report indicates that House Republican leaders are worried more secretly recorded conversations will be leaked to the press.<p>On Wednesday descriptions of a taped conversation between House …

  194. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is set to dramatically reshape Asia’s third-largest economy with the biggest tax reform since independence …

  195. The day after signing off on the memo used to justify the firing of FBI Director James Comey, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein went to a …

  196. Trump urges Muslims to ‘practice tolerance,’ while announcing $110 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia<p>Trump’s first major foreign policy address …

  197. “You see all that shit pinned all over his dress uniform jacket? That’s not supposed to be there.”<p>David Clarke, the controversial sheriff of Milwaukee County, Wisconsin and staunch Donald Trump supporter, has reportedly accepted an offer to become the next assistant deputy secretary of Homeland …

  198. The EU now faces the shocking discovery that the UK is not Greece, the EU does not hold all the cards, and the UK is able and willing to simply walk …

  199. • The long term uptrend remains in place.<br>• Price has lost the short term 10 day EMA as end of day support. The 10 day EMA is now end of day resistance. …

  200. Musicians used to be able to rely on record sales to keep them in business, but in the past decade or so those numbers have dropped off a cliff. Consequently, a number of different revenue streams have suddenly taken on new significance. In addition to touring and merchandise bringing in a higher …

  201. This is an example of one group of artists sharing their appreciation for another group of artists, and the results are magical. Here’s Florence + …

  202. Want a home loan these days? Increasingly, your credit needs to be almost perfect.<p>Mortgages continued to concentrate among the least risky U.S. …

  203. Despite recovery, gambling executives are wary of further crackdown from Beijing<p>Casino executives in Macau are confident that the slowdown of recent …

  204. A furious pace of store closings and bankruptcies has drummed up fears that U.S. retail is collapsing. Not so fast: Many indicators suggest that …

  205. Debt isn’t a big problem and it’s not caused by social spending — and Republicans aren’t better economic managers<p>In mid-March, President Donald Trump’s “skinny budget” proposal drew widespread criticism for its short-sightedness, senseless cruelty and betrayal of his base. It was bad for science, …

  206. This year has been a big one for the technology sector, and now we’re getting data on just how quickly investors are piling into this already crowded …

  207. The U.S. economy is behaving mysteriously. Usually wage growth accelerates when the job market is tight: Employers have to pay more to attract and …

  208. <b>Your government at work with your tax dollars.</b><p><b>Loan billions to brain dead teenagers so they can pretend to get smart in college.</b> When they fail …

  209. Trump Told Russians That Firing ‘Nut Job’ Comey Eased Pressure From Investigation

    WASHINGTON — President Trump told Russian officials in the Oval Office this month that firing the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, had relieved “great pressure” on him, according to a document summarizing the meeting.<p>“I just fired the head of the F.B.I. He was crazy, a real nut job,” Mr. Trump …

  210. Salon talks to the social psychologist author of “The Broken Ladder” about why both sides think somebody’s cheating<p>One of the most prominent story types of 2016 election coverage involved dropping in on Southern and Rust Belt communities that supported Donald Trump and probing the people and their …

  211. by Cognitive Dissonance – May 21, 2017 1:06 PM<p>Rather than seek meaning in life from external sources, they infuse life with meaning and purpose, …

  212. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on Sunday criticized U.S. President Donald Trump for sealing an arms deal and other investments worth hundreds of billions of dollars with Saudi Arabia, Tehran’s arch-rival in the Middle East.<p>Zarif’s comments came hours after Trump, who is visiting …

  213. Long DX at 97.175

  214. Donald Trump criticized similar donations to the Clinton Foundation when he was a candidate.<p>Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pledged …

  215. The “collapse” of productivity growth could be a sizable risk to credit conditions, notes a Moody’s report. However, it remains unclear the extent to …

  216. Ivanka looking good!


  218. Jeffdoc, congratulations, in our hurried and greedy world it's refreshing to be reminded what is really important in life, enjoy! Wishing mom a fast recovery and a son to be proud of.

  219. Jeffdoc, congratulations and may God Bless you and yours,

  220. Good morning and congratulations Jeff!  

    Thanks all for travel tips – looks like $800pp is the best we can do for coach to London.  Seemed like a lot to me but, apparently, the days of $500 tickets are long gone.  I'm stuck on those dates because, realistically, if it's going to be any kind of vacation for me, July 3rd, 4th and 5th are my best days to take mostly off so I want to be in Europe and not jet-lagged so we can do some fun family things Sat-Wed and the rest of the vacation, I can work during the days and go out at night.  

    We're starting the hedge fund in the fall, so there's pretty much no chance I'll have time for a long vacation next Summer.

    10%/StJ – It's not really the 10% part that's the problem but the qualifications of the buyers.  I'd say it should be 10% down as long as 10% is no more than 60% of one year's income.  What really got us into trouble was people who made $100,000 putting $100,000 down on a $1M home or people making $50,000 buying $500,000 homes.  Allowing people to do that simply drives up the prices of homes – it doesn't really put that many more people into homes but it does put a lot more people into homes they can't afford.  

    1st Class/Newt – My kids are too old to be happy to be in the back when we're in 1st class and I'm not paying for all to be in first class so I'd rather suffer in the back for 8 hours than spend an extra $10K for 4 seat upgrades.  Even $5K for 2 seems excessive anyway – so many better things to do with $5,000.

    Catamaran/Mkucs – Still 6 years away!  Need my Mondays and Fridays free before I commit to spending weekends on a boat.  

    Enjoy Japan, BDC.

    Oil/Craigs – No break in price as OPEC claims they are absolutely continuing cutbacks.  Not unexpected but it's keeping us over $51 (/CLN7).

    Van Gogh/Newt – There's a movie coming out about him, I'll be interested.  Sort of depressing that a lot of people who cut very close to the truth also end up being self-destructive – makes you kind of wonder if we're going to like it when we get there…  Meanwhile, it's what makes art fun, right?  

    Image result for Basquiat

    Ireland/Naybob – Wish I had time but we're trying to do London and Paris.  

    Nat Gas/Ernest – LNG is one we like but they've gotten a bit expensive.  CHK is still cheap, that's a decent way to play Nat Gas 

    You can sell the 2019 $5 puts for $1.15 and use that money to fund the $5 ($2)/$10 (0.60) bull call spread and your net entry is 0.25 per $5 spread and your worst-case is being assigned at net $5.25, which is still cheaper than they are now.  

    Brokers/Newt – Sorry, I don't use advisers but do you really need one?  There are so many index funds these days – probably the same ones Vanguard had you in, that will generally perform as well as the S&P and platforms like TOS do most of what you need to be self-directed.  Combine that with what you learn here re. hedging and you should do very well over the long-haul.

     Rollover/Latch – Still seems like the markets default mode is bullish and it takes a new crisis just to keep it in check.  Unfortunately, with Trump, we have several new crises each week!  As to 4th Turnings, pretty dire for the next decade so let's hope not. 

    Gas/CDN – Are you saying slaughter the humans second?  wink

    FXP/Joseph – We'll have to take a look but I'm inclined.  

    Amex/Craigs – I notice it's 100,000 to go to Europe now – used to be 50,000 so my long-held points have lost half their value over time.  Nothing else to do but make enough money trading Futures to pay for the trip!  

    Oil contracts down to a very manageable amount, by the way:

    Click for
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    Jun'17 50.60 50.89 50.58 50.73 07:13
    May 22


    0.40 2391 50.33 23991 Call Put
    Jul'17 50.93 51.26 50.91 51.07 07:13
    May 22


    0.40 116877 50.67 648051 Call Put
    Aug'17 51.78 51.78 51.16 51.33 07:13
    May 22


    0.41 17069 50.92 179882 Call Put
    Sep'17 51.50 51.69 51.38 51.55 07:13
    May 22


    0.42 6902 51.13 187730 Call Put
    Oct'17 51.52 51.82 51.52 51.73 07:13
    May 22


    0.43 3269 51.30 107744 Call Put
    Nov'17 51.72 51.95 51.68 51.88 07:13
    May 22


    0.43 4433 51.45 66879 Call Put
    Dec'17 51.97 52.05 51.75 51.96 07:13
    May 22


    0.40 7230 51.56 316575 Call Put
    Jan'18 51.93 52.09 51.89 52.09 07:13
    May 22


    0.47 432 51.62 73782 Call Put

    News/Pstas – What more evidence could you need about how right-slanted the media is?

    • Republican voices accounted for 80 percent of what newsmakers said about the Trump presidency, compared to only 6 percent for Democrats and 3 percent for those involved in anti-Trump protests.
    • percentage of news coverage

    And how is it even remotely possible that Russia hacking the US elections (whether in cahoots with Trump or not) gets only 6% of the coverage?  This is possibly the biggest political scandal in US history and it's shoved to the back-burner?   DESPITE all that favoritism, the tone of the coverage is overwhelmingly negative.  Imagine if we actually did have a fair and balanced media!  

  221. Phil – when you are in London it would be great to meet you if you have time. Would be interested in learning more about the hedge fund you are starting in the fall

  222. Phil, Thanks a lot.  The financial advisor ideas are for my part of trying to be a successful husband and steward.  Someone told me that includes teaching your widow how to be less stressed when you step  over to the "other side of the creek" and I would like to set her up w/ a competent and caring advisor.  Swatdi khrap.

  223. Phil, count me in if you are directly involved , CEO'ing the hedge fund.  No problem qualifying.

  224. Jeffdoc – Congratulations on the birth of your son !