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Terrible Tuesday – Children Murdered, Markets Make All-Time Highs

22 dead and 56 injured.  

For those who don't have teenagers, Ariana Grande is a former Disney Star who has a very wide appeal with young kids and about 2M people have seen her recent tour.  There's almost no one in the World with high-school children or grandchildren who can't imagine their kids standing next to the terrorist when the bomb went off at the concert.

Yet the machines that move the markets are mindlessly oblivious to the danger and, as it is Tuesday, they are pushing the S&P back to 2,400, which is fine for us as we predicted this, waited for it and now we'll make money shorting the S&P Futures (/ES) for the 5th week in a row:

The fact that the S&P STILL can't get over 2,400 DESPITE the weaker Dollar and the stronger Apple does not give me the warm fuzzies about the strength of this weekly rally so, once again – we are going to be shorting the indexes at the levels we keep shorting them at and once again, later in the week, I will tell you how much money we made and you will say: "why can't I ever catch trades like that."  It's a vicious cycle…

Remember, I can only tell you what the market is going to do and how to make money trading it – that is the extent of my powers

At this point I'm just cutting and pasting what I said last Tuesday into this Tuesday since the same programs are running and, to save time, on Thursday we'll be looking for the following bounce levels after the drop:

  • Dow (/YM) 20,500 with 20,600 (weak) and 20,700 (strong) bounce lines.
  • S&P (/ES) 2,350 with 2,360 (weak) and 2,370 (strong)
  • Nasdaq (/NQ) 5,550 with 5,580 (weak) and 5,610 (strong) 
  • NYSE (no futures) 11,400 with 11,450 (weak) and 11,500 (strong) 
  • Russell (/TF) 1,350 with 1,360 (weak) and 1,370 (strong)

There – can I go on vacation now because, frankly I'm pretty disgusted by the way CNBC is just doing their usual morning interviews and cheerleading the market back to all-time highs in the aftermath of such a terrible attack.  As a New Yorker, I went through 9/11 but the entire World ground to a halt that day (that week, for that matter) so it felt like people cared.  I can't even imagine how I'd feel if I lived in Manchester and woke up to see the markets essentially celebrating yet another terror attack.  Is terrorism so acceptable now that it doesn't even factor into our investing decisions?  

Image result for rob from the poor and give to the richSpeaking of terrorists, just because Donald Trump is in the Middle East doesn't mean he can't destroy the lives of millions of Americans here at home.  Trump will literally kill thousands of starving children and adults by cutting 25% of the Food Stamp program in order to hand bigger tax breaks to his Billionaire Buddies.  Trump's 2018 budget request to Congress seeks massive cuts in spending on health programs, including medical research, disease prevention programs and health insurance for children of the working poor.  THAT is what Wall Street is celebrating – Billions will be redistriubted from the poor to the rich!  

Not only that but, like a super-villain who finally gains access to the governments' treasures, Trump's budget plans to sell HALF of the United State's Strategic Petroleum Reserves to raise $16.5Bn, which he will then give to his Billionaire Buddies.   Do you remember the Republican outrage when Obama wanted to release reserves for an actual emergency (when oil prices rose to $100 due to Iran sanctions)?

Republicans generally oppose the idea, saying oil reserves should only be used for an emergency. Plus, with the President taking so much heat for rising gas prices, lower prices wouldn't help Republican chances going into the election. Seven in ten Americans said rising prices have caused hardship for them and their families, according to a recent CNN poll.

"Everyone wants to help the American people and lower prices the pump – especially now, in tough economic times. And it is good that the Obama Administration is conceding that increased supply will lower those costs. But by tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the President is using a national security instrument to address his domestic political problems. The SPR was created to mitigate sudden supply disruptions. This action threatens our ability to respond to a genuine national security crisis and means we must ultimately find the resources to replenish the reserve – at significant cost to taxpayers.

Image result for this is madness sparta animated gifI don't care what you ideology is – how can you support a party that is so obviously self-serving and full of  crap?  They have no real positions other than take more of the people's money for their rich friends/donors.  

Unless the heroic few remaining Democrats are able to stop Trump's evil scheme in time, the sale of 350M barrels of oil, even if it were done over 5 years, would add more than 1.5Mb per week to our already swollen inventories.  This does not bode well for long-term oil prices and effectively negates OPEC's entire oil cut and, as a bonus, leaves us vulnerable to supply shocks in the future.  Obama proposed releasing 30M barrels when oil was $100 to STRATEGICALLY reduce the price and the Republicans freaked out and blocked it, costing US drivers Billions of Dollars in order to score the political upper hand.  What Trump is doing is total madness with no purpose whatsoever other than to rob the government of $16.5Bn.  

Meanwhile, the House committee that is investigating Russian interference in the presidential election will hear from John O. Brennan, the former director of the CIA, who was so troubled by Russia’s activities last summer that he arranged briefings with top lawmakers:

Mr. Brennan became so concerned last summer about signs of Russian election meddling that he held urgent, classified briefings for eight senior members of Congress, speaking with some of them over secure phone lines while they were away on recess. In those conversations, he told lawmakers there was evidence that Russia was specifically working to elect Mr. Trump as president.  

Image result for trump russia election

Unfortunately, the majority of those Congresspeople were Republicans and no actions were authorized and Trump, as soon as he took office, asked Brennan to resign his post.  A new report says that President Trump asked two intelligence officials to deny the existence of any evidence of collusion between his campaign and Russia. Both of those officials just happen to be scheduled to testify before lawmakers on Tuesday.

Is this really the environment under which you expect the markets to make new all-time highs?  Just like every other Tuesday we're at these nose-bleed levels – the answer is no.  At the moment (8:45), the Dow (/YM) Futures are 20,921, the S&P (/ES) 2,396, the Nasdaq (/NQ) 5,714 and the Russell (/TF) 1,378 and our two favorites to short are the S&P and the Russell but only if the others are breaking lower (short the laggard) and very tight stops over 2,400 and 1,380.

Remember, this is the day the market tops out – tomorrow is the day it drops again so be very careful of trying to short too early though, given the global situation and the potential for explosive testimony this morning – it's certainly worth a toss!  


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  1. Good Morning.

  2. Trump and the cronies he brought to DC are showing their true colors. Many of the people who voted for him must feel betrayed,

  3. Phil – SR sale – you sure are agitated by this.  It's a sale over 10yrs for $16.5billion.Chump change in the scheme of things. And by selling, that will continue to apply pressure to over supplied market, keeping energy prices low. Is that not a good thing for the working class folks?

    ~~Analysts say that soaring U.S. shale output is the reason for the greater security in its supply.

    "The U.S. has likely become more sanguine when it comes to having a very large SPR holding, given lofty medium term forecasts for the Permian basin," said Virendra Chauhan, oil analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects, referring to a large U.S. shale oil field.

  4. NOK up 6% in pre-market. ;-)

    ~~ NOK – Nokia and Apple (AAPL) settle all litigation related to their intellectual property dispute and agreed a multi-year patent license.

  5. SPR / Phil – It's hard for me to understand how you can support these GOP guys – rules change all the time based on who is in power. When a Dem is president, you can't touch the SPR even though oil is at $100. Now that oil is at $50, let's go and sell 1/2 of it. Same with deficits – can't have them when a Dem is in power, but they don't matter when the GOP is in power. Their policies – healthcare, cuts to Medicaid and food stamps will end up killing more people prematurely than terrorism.

    Latch – Don't you think that it would have been better for working class people (and the government) to sell the SPR oil when it was at $100? But yet your crew opposed it then. What changed besides the president? And I bet that when a Dem comes back, we will have to fill up that SPR again for matters of national security. And wait until oil is at $100 again to make sure to fill the pockets of the big donors.

  6. Phil – Thanks for your support from this side of the pond.  I just moved to Manchester from London and this morning a lot of people got up and went to work.  Not all of us did but we were the lucky ones.  Its a very sombre mood here today.  But just so no one loses faith in humanity the NHS was turning people away this morning who queued to donate blood and there are stories of the emergency services and members of the public from surrounding areas coming to the city's aid last night to help .  Taxi drivers got people home for free, blankets and tea were delivered and medical staff from all over came in on their night off to help.  I'd say Manchester gets better ratings than CNBC anyhow ;-)

  7. CNBC showing a moment in silence for the massacre in Manchester.  May the terrorists rot in hell (and all who support them)!!

  8. Malsg – Stay safe !  Terrible act.

  9. Good morning!  

    This is interesting – Fox news' Chris Wallace no less:

    A musical interlude from the musical half of my DNA:

    Betrayed/Den – It's always fun to witness the mental gymnastics they have to go through to justify his actions.

    Nice flag, StJ.  Still waiting for the RUT to get over 1,380 – too dangerous to be long below there.  

    SPR/Latch – No because we don't need more oil now, this is not a STRATEGIC use of the SPR, all this is is a way to drop another $16.5Bn in the budget to justify further tax cuts.  Down the road, some other President will then refill the reserve, causing a shortage and possibly driving prices much higher.  It's the hypocrisy of the thing that really pisses me off but you seem very comfortable with that. As I noted above to Den, it's very interesting to watch Conservatives bend over backwards to justify anything Trump does.

    And what StJ said (it's obvious to anyone but you, apparently).  

    RUT just touched 1,380.  /ES 2,398

    Manchester/Malsg – My heart goes out to you guys, I love that city too…  

  10. Sad death, Roger Moore died from cancer at 89.

  11. See Roger Moore dies and THAT makes the market go down!  

  12. Roger Moore/Phil

    That's because Bond fought terrorists and Russia

  13. From John Mauldin :

    ~~A very warm welcome from Orlando where the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference kicked off yesterday evening with a jaw-dropping announcement from geopolitical expert George Friedman:

    ~~‘’I’m usually the guy to tell you about the next decade, but today I’m going to tell you about the next week. It has become apparent that the US is preparing to attack North Korea.”

  14. I'm still short /ES here with 2392 avg.

    Ever watch Adam hates Everything?  Good show debunking society.  He did a whole thing on donating blood, and why it's so dumb.  

    Here's a clip from the buy one, give one business model that these dumb milennials fall into

  15. Bond, James Bond…

  16. AZO getting crushed, not looking good for the Auto sector.  

    • AutoZone (NYSE:AZO): Q3 EPS of $11.44 misses by $0.56.
    • Revenue of $2.62B (+1.2% Y/Y) misses by $90M.
    • Press Release
    • AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) reports domestic same-store sales fell -0.8% in Q3.
    • Total auto parts sales grew 1.1% to $2.53B.
    • Total domestic commercial sales up 3.6% to $498.58M.
    • Gross profit rate deleveraged 21 bps to 52.6% due to higher supply chain costs associated with current year inventory initiatives (-28 bps) and higher inventory shrink results (-20 bps).
    • Inventory +7.3% Y/Y to $3.86B.
    • Domestic store count +155 Y/Y to 5,381.
    • Store count +198 Y/Y to 5,915.
    • AZO -6.33% premarket.
    • A weak sales report from AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) is setting up the auto parts sector for a dismal day.
    • The company called the spring sales season "challenging" and saw its margins fall in its FQ3 due to sales deleverage.
    • Premarket: AZO -8.6%ORLY -2.6%AAP -5.3%GPC -3.7%
    • On watch: MNROLKQ.
    • Previously: AutoZone lower on earnings miss (May 23)

    Ford: Keep Your Eyes Wide Open 

    • General Motors (NYSE:GM) will lay off close to 600 of its 1,500 South African workers by July after a decision last week to sell its local operations.
    • Top manufacturing union NUMSA confirmed the notice of retrenchment.
    • The exit will mark the end of GM's 13-year tenure in South Africa, which saw the introduction of Chevrolet, Hummer and Cadillac brands.
    • A day after Ford officially ousted its CEO in a bid to remake itself as a future-focused vehicle manufacturer, Toyota (NYSE:TM) announced its own steps to embrace technology's next wave.
    • Together with MIT's Media Lab, Toyota has enlisted a series of partners that specialize in different aspects of blockchain technology for the development of driverless cars.

    On the other hand:

    • May U.S. PMI Composite53.9 vs. 53.2 consensus, 52.7 prior.
    • Services PMI 54.0 vs 53.1 consensus, 52.5 prior.
    • Manufacturing PMI 52.5 vs 53.0 consensus, 52.8 prior.
    • Businesses across the eurozone maintained April's blistering growth rate in May as firms struggled to meet growing demand.
    • IHS Markit's Flash Composite PMI matched the previous month's 56.8.
    • "The fact we have maintained this high level in May is great news for second quarter GDP," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

    NoKo/Albo – What?  I'd like to know what that's based on.  Maybe that's why the market is tanking then. 

    Adam/Burr – It's kind of like Penn and Teller's Bullshit – that was a good show. 

    Image result for roger moore animated gif

  17. Phil - Friedman is making a very scary call.  But I guess he has some credibility,

    BTW,  it used to be that you could predict when the military was going to act based on the number of Domino's Pizza orders at the White House.  Especially, after hours.  Don't know if that tell still exists.

  18. I'm also short /ES with a 2392 avg. will buy one back at 2390 and keep scaling in and out. Leave one on. 

  19. VIX is falling. No one cares about anything…

  20. Added to my already overweight position in QUIK at $1.24.

  21. FU TEVA!!!!

  22. FU GNC!!!!

  23. Bought 20 VIX BCS July 20/25 at $0.25. 

  24. Meanwhile 100 people will die today from gun violence in the United States. Just like they do every single day.

  25. According to this site we are passing 30k deaths so far today… Apparently 150k people die on a daily basis..

  26. Phil - "By the way – does anyone know a good way to go to Europe June 29th to July 16th that doesn't cost $1,000/person?  These airfares have gone nuts!…

    Ireland/Naybob – Wish I had time but we're trying to do London and Paris….  

    Of Specificity and Subtlety…  Specificity:  Your generic request for Europe was met with Dublin. Besides the airfare, there was a reason…

    Currently on the Foreign Office scale of 0 – 4; None; Low; Underlying; General; High.  London and Paris rated at 4 – High; with Dublin rated at 2 – Underlying.  Does this mean 50% safer?

    Aside from not "letting the terrorists win" and never wrestle with a pig, you get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it…  Perhaps and even more. Still life is about choices and shit happens.

    Last reign of terror, mostly in the North – 1971 – 2001 – Bloody Friday, The Troubles and Sunday, Bloody, Sunday in Derry, the horror of which was best expressed here,

    Since 2001, mostly territorial gangster vendettas, of course the New IRA might have something to say about that.

    Subtlety: Rather than issue an alarmist advisory upfront re: typical tourist hubs and risk factors; this Agent 86 attempted to steer "Thaddeus" to a lower risk zone.  Not so subtle and another could not have expressed it better…

    "[Ariana Grande] – That's a show my daughter could easily have been at! There's almost no one in the World with high-school children or grandchildren who can't imagine their kids standing next to the terrorist when the bomb went off at the concert…."

    Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? Now is the Spring of our discontent, soon to become Summer.  Strategic hubs and capitals are to varying degree, all in play.  In the meantime, enjoy, let's be careful out there and Out!

  27. Joseph—yes FU FTR!!!!

    having it rally to 1.43 isn't going to take it off the FU list.. 

  28. Nattering – I know outfits like offer futures type of products for crypto but all of that is beyond me. I feel that it's risky enough as a buy-and-hold strategy there's little need for that stuff.

  29. Thanks for the support all.  I honestly do not know how you guys sleep at night with guns being readily available.  Scares the Brit in me to death.

    In other news:

  30. Second watching scott's link on Bezos from a couple days ago. 

  31. BDC – Thanks for the low down on crypto futures.  What did you think of Money or Crypto Tulips?

  32. I was underwhelmed with the Bezos interview..what am I missing? I LUV AMAZON.

  33. Of Wilfred and Silky, but for me Beau Maverick, Simon Templar and a tongue in cheek Bond, shall be missed most. RIP KBE Moore.

  34. short /ES as well — avg. 2395

  35. NoKo/Albo – Well my indicator is you see more and more news stories about how evil/dangerous the enemy-to-be is – that's propaganda 101:

    So it does look like we're getting there, doesn't it?  And Trump certainly needs a good war to distract everyone.  I could even see China approving it because if we kick NoKos ass in some quick action, it will drive them right back under China's protection and then they'll stop trying to act independent – which has been annoying China.

    /ES/Jeff – Close but no cigar.  

    /TF was well-behaved

    Image result for oh behave animated gif

    Deaths/01 – Scariest thing on that chart is the net 100,000 extra births over deaths each day.  And this:

    1,950,428Deaths caused by smoking this year
    Sources and info:

    Talk about preventable tragedies!   There are "only" 526,000 auto fatalities by comparison yet they spend Billions on self-driving cars.  How about a robot that smacks the cigarettes out of people's mouths?  

    Safer/Naybob – I remember walking by Harrod's in the winter while they were cleaning up the glass from a bomb that went off in the entry-way.  Just another day in London back in those days.  My Grandparents still owned a shop down the street at the time.

    Image result for liberty safety

    While I won't take the kids to Mosul, I refuse to live in fear of things that are far rarer than lightning strikes – especially when I'll be leaving a country where 100 people a day are shot with guns!  

    WPM/Maslg – You mean my Stock of the Year is the World's most perfect stock?  cool

    AMZN/Latch – I like the banana giveaway thing.  It's fun to do things like that when you have infinity Dollars. 

    Trump leaks from the Onion – someone has WAY too much time on their hands.

    Even funnier – Mulvaney is trying to justify this ridiculous budget with its ridiculous assumptions.  

  36. Phil – don't let it go to your head ;-)

  37. Nattering – I love DSOFTM – probably one of the best complete albums of all time – and I'm maybe one of 7 people in the world who hasn't "listened to it stoned. Like, totally man." 

    I'm not sold on the huff post quote of the premise of an inevitable "economic collapse." 250,000 people a day are coming out of poverty and joining the middle class. Not to start a prediction war here – but pointing out there's competing forces at work. Globalization, however, is inevitable, and despite what you read in the news, which amounts to friction losses at best and are man bites dog stories IMO. The stories you don't hear are the mechanisms of this process at work every single minute of every single day in nearly everything we are doing. Crypto naturally captures this, and not for complicated reasons that people make them out to be, but for the very simple reason that crypto is instantly global and has no single government jurisdiction – it's a fungible asset/currency (part of both) anywhere in the world at exactly the same time with zero government intervention. This simple fact I think people largely miss.

    The second thing people miss is, which is the real invention of crypto, is the transparency. This is actually an unfortunate result of naming and describing the technology (e.g., "crypto") which just relates to how information is encrypted (exactly like passwords, but we don't call that crypto), but masks the reality that every single transaction is available to everyone to view. Add to that the nature of the software is open source (non-proprietary) and it really gets your attention. Everyone owns it equally.

    Right from Michael Lewis's HFT book – in 2007, once stock trading become 100% electronic, you go from trading in NYSE pits via humans to heavily guarded server farms in NJ – and not one single person can tell you exactly how it all works. The rest is recent history – entire trade order books disappearing from the screen as clever nerds get "closer" to the exchanges and scalp billions of dollars in what amounts to fees without adding any value to humanity whatsoever. So now combine this new currency system with this new asset system – governments can't screw with it – and greedy capitalists can't screw with it, all the same. This symbolism is important in my opinion; people are tired of being taking advantage of. Here's a transaction system where no one has any special rights or access and never can, and no change to the protocol or any transaction can be private from anyone else. Now ain't that something!

    Like all new systems it comes with it's own "games" and you're ahead of the curve here by saying "technology and outlaw advances," same as with the internet in the 90's. The rest is anyone's guess – and most people are looking for informed opinion on that guess (so will it go up or down from right now?), which of course no one knows. My guess is still largely intact despite the recent froth (in the long term that is) - crypto adoption is still 0.01%, or maybe now 0.1% of what it could be, so it's intrinsic value could be 1,000X what it is, even right now at $80B. We just don't have any real way of knowing because we don't have anything to compare what's going on against it. Except Tulip Bulbs of course ;)

    But that's a lot of upside. So like anything you take measured risks because that's where the returns are (and my risks have been way too measured unfortunately! in hindsight…). Specifically one would want to learn, like any new thing, the rules of the games, and crypto is open source so anyone can create a new blockchain and there are now 1000's in existence. If the market cap goes up, some coins will go up at the same rate, some will go 10,000X, some will die, and inevitably new ones that don't will exist yet will in the future, so it is a very dynamic space and I can see lot's of folks who seem intimidated by that.

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  49. Phil/tobacco robot

    How about a robot that smacks tobacco executives…every time a cigarette is smoked, I'd like to see that. 

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  65. The Trump administration budget is to be unveiled on Tuesday, though advanced information was available Monday evening. There’s already been detailed coverage trickling out, but beyond the details are underlying budget assumptions. More than aggressive, they seem Utopian. When reality comes …

  66. In 1960, the average song is 45.7% compressible. The most repetitive song of the year is Dee Clark’s <i>At My Front Door</i> (78% compressible). …

  67. OPEC’s attempts to limit output are offset by a cooling of Chinese manufacturing.<p>When the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries gathers in Vienna this week, members and non-OPEC oil producers are likely to extend the production cuts put in place in November as a way to shore up prices, …

  68. MINNEAPOLIS (Reuters) – Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said Tuesday that while the U.S. economy is closer now than it was in March to full employment, he still does not know “if we are there yet,” and that the recent decline in core inflation is “concerning.”<p>”We are …

  69. A larger-than-forecast decline in new-home purchases in April from the strongest pace in almost a decade indicates a pause in demand in the midst of …

  70. President Donald Trump’s claim that his budget will erase the deficit in 10 years relies on an accounting gimmick.<p>His economic advisers have insisted for months that his proposal to slash tax rates can be revenue neutral, meaning the tax code will collect as much money as it does today after …

  71. The hard fact is that the past decade’s $10 trillion in deficit spending has produced the worst economic growth as measured by Gross Domestic Product …

  72. In this video, Luke Rudkowski of WeAreChange covers the breaking news of the Bilderberg Group’s location and date of this year’s secretive meeting. …

  73. Its bout of anxiety over, the stock market has jumped back to where it was 10 days ago, with headline volatility at bay. But away from benchmark …

  74. Trump’s “New Foundation for American Greatness” would take hundreds of billions from important social programs<p>President Donald Trump’s new budget proposal for 2018 calls for massive spending cuts in social safety net programs and medical research.<p>Dubbed “A New Foundation for American Greatness,” …

  75. <b>And London in March…</b><p>Bloomberg’s Paul Dobson reminds readers that if you’re wondering about the sanguine response to the breaking news from London, …

  76. The euro-area economy is growing at a pace that would warrant a tightening of monetary policy if it wasn’t for weakening inflation, IHS Markit said.<p>A …

  77. The Economist explainsWhy Harvard Business School is under fire<p>A new book blames HBS for many of the Western world’s woes<p>The Economist explains<p>May …

  78. Well today is sucking b**ls.  /DX trade, down.  /KC trade, down, /ES trade, down, missed the /CL long @ 51.  FU BURRBEN!

  79. Phil,

    I can not access your website from my desktop browsers. Tried safari, chrome and Firefox. I even cleared the history. Anyone else having this problem?

  80. Check if chrome is blocking scripts.  It happened to me on a few other sites.  There will be a weird icon next to the star icon on the right end of the address bar.  Click it and allow scripts.

  81. All working fine for me

  82. Browser > Safari and Firefox 53.0.3 working fine for me 

  83. Burrben – I started having the same issue couple of days ago where I get "Page cannot be displayed" my workaround was to use the link from a daily email and once you are there you can browse the website

  84. Phil – What do you think of YY?

  85. Thanks guys, I'll try it and let you know

  86. BDC – instantly global and has no single government jurisdiction… anywhere in the world at exactly the same time with zero government intervention… everyone owns it equally.

    Those facets are not missed by those in control.  Getting small benediction's from the public, vendors and individual governments is one thing.  Just like a thousand atta boys can be wiped out by one ah shit…. if it becomes a large enough problem, RICO, tax evasion, money laundering and currency control can be used to shut it down tomorrow.

    One must think "taxation of the Internet", legalized gambling, prostitution and marijuana…
    If our elected prostitutes are allowed to wet their beaks, viz. control measures, and their pimps, the feudal overlords who control them, in this case the ABA and global house of finance are all given their tribute, perhaps ordainment into not monastic, but monetary priesthood.  TBD.  Three hail mary's and Out.

  87. Phil, need your insight re: hedge funds. Do all hedge funds require investors to "hold" for a minimum period or is this some do and some don't? The subject came up in a casual conversation the other day and made me wonder about this. Just idle curiosity. 

  88. BDC – and inevitably new ones that don't will exist yet will in the future, so it is a very dynamic space and I can see lot's of folks who seem intimidated by that.

    BTW – I agree with your earlier assessment and your positive outlook is admirable.  People are fearful of the unknown.  Like I always say. into the great wide open… baby!  Bonus points if you can recognize who "Eddie" or his girlfriend are in this 1991 video.  His manager is a gimme and Out. 

  89. I've got 2 /ES short at 2394 now. 

  90. Interesting TSLA — just broke 307 and staying,,,maybe the crack is widening?

  91. sitting on 3 /ES short @ 2395

  92. The Onion leaked the trump documents

  93. what is wrong with TEVA today?

    keeps hitting lows every day dangit!

  94. New trading system – I sent "requesting access" yesterday but no response so far?

  95. Nasdaq is the only index red for a change.  

    Dollar moving up for the first time in ages.  

    /NG falling off.

    Balls/Burr – Yep, watch and wait kind of day.  

    Web site/Japar – You mean it's only working from your phone?  That's strange.  

    YY/Burr – It's on the pile of Chinese stocks I wouldn't pretend to understand or trust enough to play with.  They seem to be growing pretty fast and the numbers look solid so, if you feel good about them I'd say they are worth a toss – especially as they have good options to sell.  You can get $4 for the $40 puts, which is $16 (28%) off the current price.  You can use that to buy they 2019 $45 ($17.50)/$60 ($11) bull call spread at $6.50 and that's net $2.50 on the $15 spreads.  Just make sure you like them enough to own them at $42.50.

    Hedge funds/Pstas – I can't imagine not having any holding period – it's not an ATM, you know.  We're just going over that for our own fund and, because of the way we run our portfolios (very liquid, low margin), we're probably going to be down around 45 days for withdrawals, which is pretty low.  Most funds require 3 months to 6 months and for good reason, forcing unwinds at inopportune moments can really damage a portfolio.

    TSLA/Latch – Fingers crossed!  

    TEVA/Jabob  - No CEO.

    Teva Pharmaceutical's search committee recommends foreign CEO: report

    Vetr Issues Strong Buy As Teva Trends Down

    TradeExchange/Tangled – Really?  I'll check on that.

  96. If anyone is interested in trying our new TradeExchange system (a PSW Investments project) you can sign up by sending an Email to and simply say "requesting access" and you'll get an Email with next steps.

    TradeExchange lets you follow me and others who make stock picks (no options yet) and we're connected with:

    • ETrade
    • ScottTrade
    • Fidelity 
    • Options House
    • TradeStation 
    • IB 

    Those can be hooked into the system so you can execute a trade idea on the fly.  We're finalizing our deal with TD/ThinkorSwim, maybe in June.  

    Please give it a try if you can (free for now) – I would like to get your feedback.  


    - Phil

  97. I hear rachel maddow's show is picking up – if one wanted to invest in MSNBC profits where do they actually flow to? CMCSA

    nattering – TP vid: more watchable than any of the Pirate's movies IMO, no?

  98. Follow up on hedge funds- so, after whatever period is designated and investor can withdrawal funds without penalty? How is the value determined? Is there some type of unit valuation system? 

  99. Joining in ES short at 2397.5 with 2   Out DX at 97.185

  100. @pstas – Hedge fund holding period.  Most hedge funds ask for a 3 year initial investment lock up period.  After which 45 day or X day notice comes in…  If you decide to withdraw before the 3 year expiration period, they charge penalties.  This all depends on the hedge fund manager and his flexibility and the fund contract.  

  101. Hey Phil –  Can you send a tweet out that we are leaning /ES short here?  Help your members out!

    Oh and tweet something about /KC being a buy lower than 1.30 pls.

  102. Now I'm at 2395 avg on my 2 /ES short

  103. For Disney fans

    This has 72 millon hits

    After Ever After – DISNEY Parody

    Jon Cozart

  104. MSNBC/BDC – It would be way too small to move the needle.  Funny how the opposition party shows tend to do better, no matter who is in charge. 

    Values/Pstas – That is based on some really tricky (but legally defined) calculation system I know little about.  Generally, there is a constantly calculated portfolio value so, on the day you put money in, that's what you are investing in.  Then the portfolio gains or loses money while you are invested and, when you withdraw, you do so at the relative net value.  So, if you put in $100K and the portfolio value is $5M and, when you withdraw it's $5.5M, you get $110K back – assuming the money came from gains in positions and not just more money coming in – that's taken into account.  

    I have been told TradeExchange only process new accounts once a day – it's not automated yet.  

    Well we can't say we weren't given every opportunity to short the indexes at our levels.

    /KC/Burr – Well I just bought 1 at $1.30 if that helps.  

  105. Nah, you really should be using Twitter like Musk.  Say something like:

    "PSW Investors got short /ES and long /KC today.  You still have a chance to get in!"


  106. BDC – "TP vid: more watchable than any of the Pirate's movies IMO, no?"

    You nailed it, and his GF in the video, a young Gabrielle Anwar.  The mgr a gimme, Faye Dunaway.

  107. You realize, Burr, that by telling me to do that, you prevent me from doing it, right?  Not that I would anyway, I can't talk about a trade I'm already in.  I'm not Carl Icahn – I don't have an army of lawyers to march into the SEC whenever I violate the rules. 

    BDC, Naybob – Don't dis the Pirates movies – I like those things!  

    Image result for pirates of the caribbean animated gif

  108. I think you are mistaken.  You HAVE to disclose a trade you are in.  So if you tweeted out that "Coffee has strong fundy's here", you need to disclose that you are long coffee.  That's all.  

    So if you said that "PSW traders are all leaning short /ES here below 2400 and long /KC at the 1.30 line" and then said if you had positions, you didn't do anything wrong. 

  109. Burr — look how many times Phil has been hounding TSLA and only now, just maybe, kinda, people are starting to go..hmmmmmmmm?

  110. today's who-knows-what coin up 500% is appropriately named LuckCoin

    up 50X from March. that's "$100 becomes $5k" people. just sayin

  111. How do you combine this. With this?

  112. Biod – I made a 2nd transfer to coinbase, ready to go.  What do you buy here?  ETH? Some BTC?

    Or spread $100 around 20 times? 

  113. spread some around at Bittrex IMO (coinbase itself only trades BTC, ETH and LTC)

  114. How do I get my BTC @ coinbase over to Bittrex?  Pay myself?

  115. burrben – correct 

  116. Mistaken/Burr – I tell you what, you do it for 6 months and, if nothing happens, maybe I'll give it a try too!  Meanwhile, you do realize there might be a reason people DON'T do that on Twitter, right?  While I bow to your great legal expertise in the matter – when you say "this is the right way to manipulate a position" as your opening statement – I think I have to pass.  

    50x/BDC – Yeah, 29 came up in roulette last time I was in AC and $100 turned into $3,500 in two minutes!  I'm just sayin'…  I see "only" 721 items to invest in on coinmarket – the odds are better in roulette!  I like the GreenCoin idea because WE have enough people here to make a market out of it.  That's a thing we can control.  And by the way, is that our GeenCoin at 391?  What do we need to do to get it into the 200s?

    Thisthis/BDC – Not sure how you combine those but you can start buying land in Nebraska, I guess. 

  117. Phil – HUN is down 4% today on merger news with Clarient.  Do you like it?

  118. 42-coin up from 1895 since I mentioned it a few days ago. Chart looks like it could run. I'm good for 0.14 BTC (0.01 42 coin @ 1.4 btc/42) or $32. You need to sign up on Cryptopia however.

  119. Phil

     What is the best site to find a list of the top # of options sold for the day.


  120. roulette – yeah well the House shoulda given you $3700, so you're the one paying their 5.56% tax. In roulette all the other numbers combined, lose, and with crypto all the other coins combined have average 10X.

  121. Phil are you out of oil futures now or are you still holding a long contract?

  122. Phil – GreenCoin – getting listed on Cryptopia is a good start. They want 2.8M DOT these days (about $3k currently). 

  123. scott – I believe it. Hedgies begin to exit, then the trickle becomes the freefall. Valuations fall to $<10B aggregate (12% of where we are now), hedge funds run for the hills and disappear onto TSLA or whatever other garbage they hype. The rest of us "true" users hang around continually developing things, and then 3 years from now it happens all over again, another 100X run except this time, now you go from 9B to 900B. Oddly, it's almost exactly like Warren Buffet investing – long hold, steady as she goes. 

  124. HUN/Burr – It seems to me HUN is getting the better part of the deal as they are only worth $6Bn at $25 while CLN is worth about $8Bn yet HUN is getting 48% of the merged stock.  I don't love HUN, they are a nice, boring company we never play but they are reasonably priced and I thin the merger is a good idea. At $25, you can sell 2019 $25 puts for $4.10 and leave it at that and then pick up a bull call spread after the merger.

    Volume/QC – Barchart has a useful list.  I like that they also have the headlines if you click the +.

    10x/BDC – Well that's a better deal then.  So are you advocating putting $7,700 into all 770 coins in expectations of making 10x?   The best thing about that plan is, no matter who hits it – you get to brag about buying them!  

    Futures/Craigs – Let's see, I have 2 /DX left at $96.93 avg and 1 /KC at $130.3 and 2 /TF shorts at 1,379.20 at the moment.  No plans to change any of those overnight.  

    Cryptopia/BDC – Give me a call and we'll talk about it.  

  125. FOXA/Phil – about a 20% fall from the April high. doesn't look done falling today, but is there a strike you would target for selling puts?

  126. Gap from Wed closed… shall we have a repeat performance tomorrow?

    I'm short. The markets, I mean.

  127. DX- Phil what are you waiting to see before stopping out of the 2 /DX positions?

  128. CLF having a good day… I'm in under 6.50, was hoping to double that at 5.75, so far no luck.

  129. I used to work with large institutional investors. They would always talk up their books. It is kind of a “natural” thing, buy a large position, Go on the news and tell people about what you find interesting and you and your Client’s accounts get a bump. Timing and little transparency pays off. I do see some disclosures now about when people do or do not have positions in the companies they are recommending, it is usually small and I don’t think most people notice them.

  130. I'm surprised TOL ended down today, their numbers were great but the sector took them down (bad housing reports).  

    Student loans/01 – Not sad, criminal.  The guy is raping this country and he doesn't care who suffers in order for him and his friends to squeeze a few more bucks out of the country.  You know who did that?  PUTIN!!!  That's why Trump idolizes him – Putin making $50Bn while running Russia is the entire reason Trump wanted to be President, our GDP is 10x Russia's – Trump can double his new worth easily in 8 years, probably much more.  Too bad the country he'll leave in his wake will be crippled.  

    FOXA/Scott – They lost their biggest draws and they are still being sued by dozens of women and they just had to fire another guy who did something (I've lost track at this point).  Why touch them?  

    Gap/Mkucs – We'll see but there was big news last Weds, can't count on that every time.  

    /DX/Craigs – I don't have a goal.  I guess I expect $98.50 at least but, if it looks strong there, I'd still stay in.   All I've been doing so far is working into a low basis.  I had 4 this morning, now back to 2. 

    Disclosure/Randers – I know you can do it but I don't have lawyers on call and the SEC works on the "guilty until proven innocent" concept of justice so I don't take any chances.  If something comes up naturally, I'll talk about it and, because I have high standards, I was ranked "The most influential market analyst" on Twitter a couple of years ago.  If I start using that to pump stocks I own – I doubt the people who follow me would keep doing so.

  131. Phil / Disclosure / Twitter –  I applaud your stance on this.  You should keep the highest standards and be beyond reproach.   If I ever thought you would entertain anything like this I would run from the hills, and the site.  

  132. Yep, with university costs rising 4-5% a year, the future doesn't look good.

  133. University costs / Novice > Hell No!, The future looks great …. With the massive tax breaks you will be getting plus the huge increase in dividends / investment profits, you will easily be able to fund your offspring's education (In institutions de-funded) . Oh, …. I also have a bridge in NY for sale.

    Not to rain on your parade, but I look forward to only seeing increases on 4-5%, some years have shown 15-20% increases. As you may have guessed, this is one future expense that does keep me up at night.

    Here is something to cheer you up >

    For the 2014–15 academic year, average annual current dollar prices for undergraduate tuition, fees, room, and board were estimated to be $16,188 at public institutions, $41,970 at private nonprofit institutions, and $23,372 at private for-profit institutions. Between 2004–05 and 2014–15, prices for undergraduate tuition, fees, room, and board at public institutions rose 33 percent, and prices at private nonprofit institutions rose 26 percent, after adjustment for inflation. The price for undergraduate tuition, fees, room, and board at private for-profit institutions decreased 18 percent between 2004–05 and 2014–15, after adjustment for inflation. 

  134. Phil

    Agreed: you have higher standards than financial institutions.

    Was out celebrating my Son’s graduation in Amherst, Mass. this weekend.

    Great time. He loves the Pioneer valley so much that he wants to settle there.

    Student Loans:They even mentioned the loan crisis in the commencement speeches.

    The for profit colleges really contributed to the republican decision makers.

  135. API reports crude down 1.5 mln, gasoline down 3.2 million and distillates down 1.9 a total of 6.6 million barrels so of course after a spike up price drops. They really love screwing with us.

  136. I think they expected more into a holiday weekend.  

  137. By the way Phil, the Sherlock thing makes no sense. When you take a position you must have an expectation that the price will go in your direction and that you will stop out at some point.

  138. craig – I agree on the Sherlock quote..does not make sense.  BTW  I am reading an amazing book — Reminiscences of a Stock Operator a psuedo bio of Jesse Livermore – The God of speculation.  Highly recommend this book to 'anyone who deals with money'. Phil , If I could be so bold – you should insist all your subscribers read this book and take a quiz.  Give them a 1% discount if they get 90%.

  139. Thanks Batman.

    College/01, Aquila – I am dumbfounded at the costs these days.  

    Amherst/Randers – I love it up there.  I'd live in Northampton for sure, such a great town.  

    Sense/Craigs, Latch – Obviously, you expect it to go up but by how much is trickier.  Also, see "Phil Davis' Mircowave Oven Theory of Behavior | Phil's Stock World"

    Operator/Latch – Gosh I would think most people know about that one, very famous.  

  140. Does anyone want to open a restaurant in Boynton Beach Florida?  Amazing place in great location for $1.3M and the city is giving all kinds of incentives for creating jobs.  Let me know if interested. 

    It's right on route 1 where they are doing all sorts of development and it's right on the corner so just needs the right kind of place.  

  141. Phil

    How is PSW  Investments doing?

  142. Very well, made an accidental profit last Q which we'll add to distributions this Q.  As noted above, TradeExchange is coming on-line and the people we show it to love it (we own 10% of it) and our real estate data project is on track for generating revenues next Q (we own 25% of that) and, as always, more in the pipeline.  Hedge Fund is the next big project for the fall.  It's no BitCoin but our first round investors have more than doubled on top of 20% distributions and 2nd round investors are on track to match.

    The math on the hedge fund is amazing.  If we manage $100M and make 20% profits we get 2% ($2M) + 20% of the profits ($4M) just from running the fund!  If that goes well, PSWI investors can end up getting annual distributions that are greater than their original investments! 

  143. qcmike

    options, you can also find some useful information at:

  144. Phil – braggin / let's just get this GreenCoin thing flying and people then we'll go on bragging tour! ;) ;)

    I'll give you a buzz later this week.

  145. Pope Francis and Donald Trump Meet at the Vatican

    VATICAN CITY — Pope Francis welcomed President Trump to the Vatican on Wednesday, shaking his hand before ushering him into his study for the first face-to-face meeting of the two leaders, who symbolize starkly different views of the world.<p>Around 8:20 a.m., under a crystalline blue sky, the …

  146. Algos could trigger the next stock market crash

    Quant-focused hedge funds – they specialize in algorithmic rather than human trading – gained $4.6 billion of net new assets in the first quarter, and now hold $932 billion, or about 30% to the $3.1 trillion in total hedge-fund assets. At the same time, investors yanked $5.5 billion out of …

  147. WASHINGTON — President Trump praised President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines in a phone call last month for doing an “unbelievable job on the drug problem” in the island nation where the government has sanctioned gunning down suspects in the streets. Mr. Trump also boasted that the United …

  148. It only took half a year, but Google’s first take on a digital whiteboard is finally available. Google has started selling the Jamboard in the US for $4,999 plus $600 per year for management and support ($300 if you buy one by the end of September). As before, it’s ultimately a 55-inch 4K display …

  149. <i>Welcome to Best of Late Night, a</i> <i>rundown that lets you sleep — and lets us get</i> <i>paid to watch comedy.</i> <i>What do you think of it? What</i> <i>else</i> <i>are you interested in? Let us know:</i> <i></i>.<p><b>‘Please Give Up This Harmful Addiction’</b><p>Stephen Colbert pounced on recent news that members of President Trump’s …

  150. The Rise of the Fat Start-Up

    In 2003, Keith Rabois, a longtime Silicon Valley investor and executive, had an ambitious idea: He wanted to start a website that would instantly offer a fair price for your home. If you accepted the offer, the site would agree to buy your house immediately, closing the deal in a matter of days.<p>To …

  151. Toronto’s hot housing market has entered a new phase: jittery.<p>After a double whammy of government intervention and the near-collapse of Home Capital …

  152. Investors should also look at the number of equities that advance versus those that decline.<p>Investors are becoming increasingly worried that a few stocks seem to be driving the returns in the S&P 500 this year. Apple is up more than 33 percent in 2017. Facebook and Amazon shares are both up around …

  153. A major new rockslide has buried a stretch of California’s iconic Highway 1 in up to 40 feet of stone and dirt, the latest hit in a soggy winter of slides, floods and road closings along the winding Central California coast road, state transportation officials said Monday.<p>A swath of the hillside …

  154. European Union ministers approved plans on Tuesday to make social media companies such as Facebook, Twitter and Google’s YouTube tackle hate speech on their platforms, the first legislation at EU level on the issue.<p>The proposals still need to be agreed with the European Parliament before becoming …

  155. <b>Offshore Yuan tumbled as Moody’s cut China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3</b>, saying that the outlook for the country’s <b>financial strength will worsen,</b> …

  156. Ikea’s smart light bulbs will answer to voice commands starting this summer. The company announced in a Swedish-language press release that its smart lighting product line, called Trådfri, will work with Amazon Alexa, Google Assistant, and Apple Siri and HomeKit.<p>Right now, Trådfri can only be …

  157. Venezuela is sliding into anarchy

    CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuela’s crisis has taken a dark turn in the past few days.<p>Rioting and looting have exploded in the rural state of Barinas, leaving eight dead and dozens injured. In one of Caracas’s main plazas on Saturday, a lynch mob doused a young man with gasoline and set him ablaze. …

  158. Whether it’s for lifestyle, thrill seeking or the challenge of it, the question of how much money stock market day traders make inevitably arises. …

  159. The market capitalization of Ethereum, the second largest “cryptocurrency,” has soared 88% in a week, from $8.4 billion, when I pooh-poohed it on May 15, to $15.8 billion at the moment. Today, the price of the token jumped 15% to $172.26, as I’m writing this. It has skyrocketed 2,000% from January …

  160. This is the chronicle of how a founding principle of this country, the freedom to worship, crashed into a public bureaucracy in the venerable and prosperous New Jersey suburb of Bernards Township.<p>There, a brittle layer of shifting regulations sat atop private contempt for Muslims on the part of …

  161. WASHINGTON — At least one million people will die in sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere, researchers and advocates said on Tuesday, if funding cuts proposed by the Trump administration to global public health programs are enacted.<p>The United States currently spends more than $6 billion annually on …

  162. Do Doctors Get Worse as They Get Older?

    A debate has erupted within medicine over how to ensure that physicians maintain their clinical skills throughout their careers. The American Board of Internal Medicine (ABIM) has long required internists to pass Maintenance of Certification exams every 10 years to keep their board-certified …

  163. Although you wouldn’t know it from the just completed earnings season for 2017-Q2, the number of dividend cuts announced to date in the current …

  164. New Home Sales, one of the strengths of the housing market, tumbled 11.4% month over month in April.<p>New Home Sales were 569,000 vs. expectations of …

  165. How Overvalued Is The S&P 500?

    S&P 500 trades at all time highs.<p>Bank of America has collated 20 metric, 15 of those indicate an overvaluation.<p>Some of these metrics are impacted by …

  166. Hamish Douglass, the co-founder of the Magellan Financial Group with more than $37 billion USD under management, thinks ride share service Uber has a less than 1% chance of surviving the next decade.<p>“It’s constantly losing money and its capital-raising strategy is a ponzi scheme,” he said at the …

  167. WASHINGTON — Finally some good news for President Trump: His new budget stands absolutely no chance of being enacted by Congress.<p>Moving forward with the cuts outlined in the $4.1 trillion spending plan created by the budget director, Mick Mulvaney, formerly one of the most determined fiscal hawks …

  168. <i>Garry Kasparov, one of the greatest chess players of all time, is famous for his pair of faceoffs against the IBM supercomputer Deep Blue.</i><p><i>Kasparov won the first match against the computer, 4-2, in 1996, but lost in the rematch, 3½-2½, in 1997.</i> <i>He recently published a book, “Deep Thinking,” about the</i> …

  169. Democrats’ confidence in country’s future declines sharply<p>The 2016 election ushered in a new era in Washington defined by unified Republican control …

  170. LONDON (Reuters) – World stocks inched lower on Wednesday after China’s sovereign credit rating was downgraded and as investors eyed a pause in Wall Street’s four-day winning streak, the longest in over three months.<p>The dollar and bond yields were steady, with investors growing gradually more …

  171. Let’s not jump to conclusions lads. It can still be an Irishman.<p>ISIS wants to poison our water supply, but the joke’s on them! The U.S. government …

  172. A team has finally uncovered the mechanism Volkswagen use to cheat emissions tests on models including Jetta, Beetle and Golf.<p>It took them a year, but researchers have finally found the mechanism that Volkswagen used to cheat emissions tests, buried in lines of code published on the company’s own …

  173. Mistakes and missteps plague enterprise security. The Verizon 2017 Data Breach Investigations Report (DBIR) offers nuggets on what organizations must …

  174. NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India’s ambitious plan to push electric vehicles at the expense of other technologies could benefit Chinese car makers seeking to enter the market, but is worrying established automakers in the country who have so far focused on making hybrid models.<p>India’s most influential …

  175. In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the fact that despite the bullish <i>“exuberance”</i> of market participants, the underlying internal …

  176. “Trump cannot stop the clean energy transition and should instead focus on accelerating it,” Greenpeace says.<p>The dome of St. Peter’s Basilica was cast in a remonstration early Wednesday aimed at President Donald Trump just hours before his visit to the Vatican.<p>Greenpeace’s Italian and German …

  177. The European Central Bank warned there may be “excessive exuberance” in some European housing markets, driven in part by foreign buyers, that could …

  178. Amazon may want fewer humans in its vast shipping network, but that’s tough to do when you have planes to fly.<p>Pilots for Amazon’s new cargo air service are planning to picket outside the retail giant’s annual meeting in Seattle May 23, demanding higher pay. The pilots’ union says low wages are …

  179. The harder truth depicted in <i>Thirteen Reasons</i> <i>Why</i> is that today’s high school graduates emerge with few skills, little education, and a snowflake view …

  180. OPEC can rest easy even on the off chance that Donald Trump’s plan to sell U.S. oil reserves comes to fruition, according to Goldman Sachs Group …

  181. World’s Biggest Aircraft Nails Critical Test Flight

    It’s a plane, it’s a blimp … it’s the world’s largest aircraft.<p>A massive airship dubbed the Airlander 10 recently completed a successful test flight, bringing the helium-filled behemoth one step closer to commercial use.<p>Though it looks like a massive blimp, the Airlander 10 combines technology from …

  182. President Trump has retained the services of a trusted lawyer, Marc E. Kasowitz, to help him navigate the investigations into his campaign and suspected Russian interference in last year’s election, according to people familiar with the decision.<p>Kasowitz, who has known Trump for decades, has …

  183. Bill Ackman’s Pershing Capital sold its 27.2-million share Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. (VRX) position in March, recovering around $11 …

  184. Pinterest’s newly announced feature sounded pretty familiar for anyone who has been keeping up with season 4 of HBO’s “Silicon Valley”: The popular app launched a food recognition camera feature Tuesday that matches a user’s image to recipes using that ingredient.<p>Users can take a photo of an entire …

  185. Most Of World Still Overbought

    Below is an updated look at our country trading range screen, which gives viewers a quick look at where global equity markets are trading within …

  186. If <b>GoPro Inc</b> (NASDAQ: GPRO) is going to mount any sort of recovery in the next year or two, it’s not going to do it on the back of Hero cameras. The Hero line that made GoPro what it is has limited opportunities for growth and margins continue to be under pressure versus where they were a couple of …

  187. Ask anyone house hunting this spring, and they’ll tell you there are far too few homes for sale. But, really, it’s the price tags of the homes for …

  188. Curved monitors are great for gaming. Acer’s been making them for a while, going back to the 35-inch Predator Z35 from 2015. Now the company has announced the Predator Z35P, an updated version of the Z35 that offers even better resolution than the original, as first spotted by <i>AnandTech</i>.<p>The new …

  189. People may well remember 2017 as the year that blockchain broke.<p>After years of development and flickering just outside of mainstream consciousness and acceptance, record high prices for the most popular blockchain-based cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and newcomer Ethereum and an embrace of the …

  190. Wednesday’s sharp sell-off in equity markets saw the S&P 500 shed nearly 2 percent. Some analysts were calling the end of the bull rally, saying …

  191. <b>Cheniere Energy</b> (NYSEMKT: LNG) and its two affiliates,<b>Cheniere Energy Partners Holding</b> (NYSEMKT: CQH) and <b>Cheniere Energy Partners</b> (NYSEMKT: CQP), have been riding high this year, with all three stocks recently touching 52-week highs. Fueling that bullish buying is a combination of factors, …

  192. The small-cap trade got a lot less crowded.<p>Investors pulled $3.5 billion from the biggest exchange-traded fund that tracks the Russell 2000 Index …

  193. BlackBerry Ltd shares surged to a four-year high in Toronto on Tuesday, extending a two-month rally spurred on by expectations for strong growth in the fast-expanding cyber security and automotive software markets.<p>The Canadian shares climbed as much as 9.4 per cent to $15.34. As of early afternoon, …

  194. FILE PHOTO: A bicycle rider rides past a factory at Keihin industrial zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan, August 18, 2016. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo<p>FILE PHOTO: People are reflected in mirrors as they walk in a busy shopping district in Tokyo, Japan May 17, 2017. REUTERS/Toru Hanai/File …

  195. Sears takes more actions to survive

    Sears, which has been paring costs and hoarding cash in a bid to survive, said Tuesday that it will put off repaying much of a $500 million loan to help shrink its debt.<p>Subsidiaries of the company, which owns both Sears and Kmart, now have a deal that will allow them to pay back $100 million of a …

  196. At first glance, OPEC’s cuts haven’t worked — global oil inventories remain well above normal levels. But the policy’s made a difference where it …

  197. The Trump-Russia scandal has metastasized quickly and destructively<p>A little more than a week ago, I said on CNN and wrote on Facebook that — based on reporting I’d just completed in Washington DC — it was clear that the controversy surrounding Russian contacts with advisers to President Donald J. …

  198. After winning gold in J.D. Power’s smartphone satisfaction competition just a couple of months back, taking home a similar smartwatch crown last …

  199. Oil rose a sixth consecutive day as industry data showed U.S. crude stockpiles declined before OPEC meets to decide on extending supply curbs.<p>Futures …

  200. Much more wealth is leaving the world’s most impoverished continent than is entering it, according to new research into total financial flows into …

  201. Despite leading efforts to extend the OPEC/non-OPEC output extension deal by nine months, Russian energy mninister Alexander Novak said Wednesday …

  202. The new White House budget proposal is built on a deep-rooted conservative belief: The government should help those who are willing to work, and cull from benefit rolls those who aren’t.<p>That emphasis on work underlies deep cuts and proposed changes to food stamps, cash assistance and health …

  203. Comedian D.L. Hughley explores how Trump’s America is all about race<p>“A black man’s Harvard education doesn’t matter as much to the American society as a white dude’s luck,” actor, comedian and show host D.L. Hughley said during an edition of “Salon Talks” the other night. “The election turned on …

  204. The European Central Bank said debt-sustainability concerns have risen in the past six months amid a potential increase in yields and political …

  205. Trump’s budget director says the White House’s budget proposal will help people “take charge of their own lives”<p>The White House delivered President Donald Trump’s first full budget to Congress on Tuesday, and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) director Mick Mulvaney promptly tried to spin $4.1 …

  206. The Economist explainsHow American cities keep food trucks off their streets<p>Some local authorities consider the moving cafes a menace<p>The Economist …

  207. Danger lurks in Earth’s orbit as thousands of rogue objects speed around the planet—and you can’t exactly call a guy with a truck to come sweep it …

  208. What does fast food have to do with interstellar travel? At first blush, not much. But halfway through the film, “The Founder,” on a grueling, recent ten hour flight, it hit me that aerospace, even NASA, might learn something from McDonald’s corporation founding CEO Ray Kroc.<p>Three years before …

  209. The harder truth depicted in <i>Thirteen Reasons</i> <i>Why</i> is that today’s high school graduates emerge with few skills, little education, and a snowflake view …

  210. Jaguar Land Rover’s fourth-quarter profit margin improved from the preceding three months on strong demand for its sport utility vehicles in major …

  211. <i>This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning. To view original, click here.</i> Reposted with permission.<p>Share!<p>President <b>Trump’s budget plan</b> – …

  212. Swapana Bhosale was stunned when she found out earlier this month she was losing her job at tech services provider Cognizant Technology Solutions in …

  213. <i>This is a syndicated repost courtesy of oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith. To view original, click here.</i> Reposted with permission.<p>Share!<p><i>Japan has managed</i> …

  214. WASHINGTON — President Trump’s budget proposal unveiled on Tuesday purported to show the benefits of cutting taxes on businesses and consumers: By the end of the decade, faster growth could balance the federal budget.<p>The numbers looked great because the White House left out something essential: the …

  215. Mick Mulvaney claims his budget puts “taxpayers first.” It slashes taxes for the rich and wreaks havoc on the poor<p>Halfway through Mick Mulvaney’s press briefing on the Trump administration’s newly-released budget proposal on Tuesday, I imagined his head morphing into that of a turkey vulture.<p>“The …

  216. Bitcoin’s dramatic surge may be more than just a speculative frenzy. The recent rally is being driven partially by enthusiasts rotating out of …

  217. Iran’s oil industry bounced back from sanctions last year, cranking up output to recover market share from other OPEC producers. Now that its surge …

  218. Pope Francis gave Donald Trump his book on the importance of protecting the environment as the president heads to a meeting of world leaders who are …

  219. SHANGHAI — Moody’s Investors Service downgraded its credit rating on China’s sovereign debt by a notch on Wednesday, saying that the steady buildup of debt in the Chinese economy would erode the country’s financial strength in the coming years.<p>In a bluntly worded statement, Moody’s said that the …

  220. Renewable energy employed 9.8 million people last year, up 1.1 percent from 2015, led by solar photovoltaic at 3.09 million jobs, according to the …

  221. WASHINGTON — As Russian hackers and propagandists tried to manipulate the American election last year, the C.I.A. noticed a series of suspicious contacts between Russian government officials and associates of Donald J. Trump’s campaign, John O. Brennan, the former C.I.A. director, said Tuesday.<p>In …

  222. President Trump’s budget would completely eliminate 66 federal programs, for a savings of $26.7 billion.<p>Some of the programs would receive funding …

  223. The harder truth depicted in <i>Thirteen Reasons</i> <i>Why</i> is that today’s high school graduates emerge with few skills, little education, and a snowflake view …

  224. China’s stocks headed for their lowest level since October, the yuan retreated and default risk increased after Moody’s Investors Service cut its …

  225. In a sign of the times, Moody’s has cut China’s credit rating for the first time in nearly three decades. Investors in China Inc. and its banks should heed the warning.<p>In downgrading China—putting the country on par with the likes of Japan and Israel—Moody’s pointed to the string of stresses …

  226. China still has some ways to go to win approval for its mainland stocks to be included in emerging-market indexes, according to the head of the …

  227. China, Canada and the European Union are joining forces to advance the Paris Agreement while President Donald Trump is still deciding whether the …

  228. The federal government filed a lawsuit against Fiat Chrysler Automobiles on Tuesday, accusing it of using illegal engine-control software to enable its diesel-powered vehicles to pass emissions tests.<p>The filing occurred days after Fiat Chrysler proposed a modification to the software to ensure …

  229. BERKELEY – In the two decades from 1979 to 1999, the number of manufacturing jobs in the United States drifted downward, from 19 million to 17 …

  230. , Oracle<p>The growing interest in chemical-free food production has driven strong demand for Marrone Bio Innovations (MBI), which makes natural, organic pesticides. Organic pesticides are derived entirely from fermented microbes and plant extracts that can target and control pests without harming the …

  231. Restaurant food doesn’t get much simpler than a properly cooked chunk of beef—and rarely delivers so much pleasure.<p>The smoky sweetness of the char, …

  232. The harder truth depicted in <i>Thirteen Reasons</i> <i>Why</i> is that today’s high school graduates emerge with few skills, little education, and a snowflake view …

  233. Good morning! 

    Larry Summers: Trump's budget is simply ludicrous – The Washington …


    The administration asserts that it will propose revenue neutral tax cuts with the revenue neutrality coming in part because the tax cuts stimulate growth! This is an elementary double count.  You can’t use the growth benefits of tax cuts once to justify an optimistic baseline and then again to claim that the tax cuts do not cost revenue. At least you cannot do so in a world of logic.

    The Trump team prides itself on its business background.  This error is akin to buying a company assuming that you can make investments that will raise profits, but then, in calculating the increased profits, counting the higher revenue while failing to account for the fact that the investments would actually cost some money to make. The revenue generated by the investments might exceed their cost (though the same is almost never true of tax cuts), but that doesn’t change the fact that the investment has a cost that must be included in the accounting.

    This is a mistake no serious business person would make. It appears to be the most egregious accounting error in a presidential budget in the nearly 40 years I have been tracking them.

    Really sickening – every friggin' day it's some other horrible thing from the White House. 

    Everything flat and dull ahead of the Fed.

    • U.S. stock index futures are signaling a relatively flat open, as investors gear up for the Fed's latest minutes release, and news out of the political and oil spheres.
    • The central bank is likely to describe how it might start reducing its $4.5T balance sheet, which could affect the pace of future interest-rate increases.
    • Oil is steady at $51.45/bbl, gold is 0.3% lower at $1252/ounce and the 10-year Treasury yield is flat at 2.25%.

    Mortgage Applications higher as interest rates fall

    • MBA Mortgage Applications
    • Composite Index: +4.4% vs. -4.1% last week.
    • Purchase Index: -1.0% vs. -3.0%.
    • Refinance Index: +11.0% vs. -6.0%
    • 30 year mortgage rate at 4.17% vs. 4.23% last week.

    ECB releases Financial Stability Review

    • Systemic stress indicators in the euro area are contained but remain significant and have even increased in some areas over the past six months, the ECB said in its latest Financial Stability Review.
    • The warning comes as the eurozone enjoys its best economic run in a decade, raising expectations that the ECB could soon start to unwind its massive stimulus measures.
    • China's great wall of debt! Moody's has lowered the nation's credit rating to A1 from Aa3, with a stable outlook, citing Beijing's waning financial strength and rising liabilities.
    • It marks the first time a major ratings agency has downgraded the country in more than 25 years.
    • The move received a backlash from China's finance ministry, which said the decision was "absolutely groundless" and was based on an "inappropriate method."

    • "Bitcoin up 100% in under 2 months. Shanghai down almost 10% same timeframe, compared to most global stocks up. Probably not a coincidence!" tweeted famed investor Jeff Gundlach.
    • The theory is the Chinese search for safe investments outside the country when asset prices fall. The yuan's weakness in the last two years has also contributed to capital flight.
    • Related tickers: COINOTCPK:BTCS
    • The fiduciary rule is due to take effect in just over two weeks after Labor Secretary Alexander Acosta warned there was little he could do legally to halt it – at least for the time being.
    • Lobbyists for the U.S. retirement savings industry have vowed to continue to fight the rule, which requires retirement advisers to put clients' interests ahead of their own.
    • Previously: Hopes dashed for delayed fiduciary rule (May. 23 2017)
    • "NAFTA is a trilateral agreement, and that has worked because it's a trilateral North American trading relationship," Canada's Minister for Foreign Affairs Chrystia Freeland said in Mexico City, echoing views of Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray.
    • "NAFTA can be modernized only with the agreement of the three parties… and I am confident that that will be how we go.
    • U.S. crude oil futures edge higher after the API reports a draw of 1.5M barrels of oil for the week ending May 19, vs. last week's build of 882K barrels.
    • Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts had forecast a 2.8M-barrel draw in crude inventories.
    • Gasoline showed a draw of 3.15M barrels; distillates showed a draw of 1.85M barrels.

    • OPEC and non-OPEC ministers meet for informal consultations in Vienna today in a last-ditch bid to agree on the duration of oil output cuts.
    • Seeking the perfect balance? The cuts have helped push oil back above $50 a barrel, but the price increase has also spurred growth in the U.S. shale industry, which is not participating in the output deal.
    • Crude futures +0.2% to $51.58/bbl.
    • A New York state appeals court rules Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOMmust turn over records in the state attorney general's investigation into how much the company knew about global warming while publicly downplaying the effects on its business.
    • The appeals court upheld a lower court decision, rejecting XOM's argument that the court did not properly consider which state's laws on turning over evidence in an investigation should apply in the case; XOM's headquarters are in Texas, while the probe is taking place in New York.
    • XOM also is fighting the investigation in Manhattan federal court, arguing that NY AG Eric Schneiderman and Massachusetts AG Maura Healey, who is conducting a separate probe, are motivated by politics.
    • German police have raided a number of Daimler's (OTCPK:DDAIY) offices as part of a probe into possible diesel-emissions fraud, as the automaker confirmed that "well known and unknown employees" were under investigation.
    • Yesterday, the DOJ filed an emissions lawsuit against Fiat and said it could face a fine of more than $45,000 on over 100,000 vehicles it sold before 2015.

    Lowe's lower on earnings miss

    • Lowe's (NYSE:LOW): Q1 EPS of $1.03 misses by $0.03.
    • Revenue of $16.86B (+10.7% Y/Y) misses by $100M.
    • Press Release
    • Lowe's (NYSE:LOW) reports comparable-store sales rose 1.9% in Q1.
    • Comps for the U.S. home improvement business increased 2% for the quarter.
    • Gross margin rate slipped 64 bps to 34.4%.
    • SG&A expense rate grew 73 bps to 22.99%.
    • Operating margin rate dropped 117 bps to 9.25%.
    • Merchandise inventory +10.8% to $12.25B.
    • Home improvement and hardware stores +277 Y/Y to 2,137.
    • FY2017 Guidance: Sales growth: ~+5%; Comparable-store sales: ~+3.5%; Operating margin: ~+120 bps; Tax rate: ~37.8%; Diluted EPS: ~$4.30; New stores: ~35.
    • LOW -7.34% premarket.

    SoftBank takes $4B stake in Nvidia

    • SoftBank (OTCPK:SFTBY) has quietly amassed a $4B stake in Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) making it the fourth-largest shareholder in the graphics chipmaker, according to Bloomberg.
    • The holdings fit with SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son's plans to become the biggest investor in technology over the next decade, with bets on emerging trends such as artificial intelligence.
    • NVDA +3% premarket
    • Toshiba (OTCPK:TOSYY) shares closed up 8% in Tokyo on reports that Western Digital (NYSE:WDC) and its partners were prepared to offer ¥2T ($17.9B) for the Japanese conglomerate's memory chip business.
    • The two are already in the midst of a fierce legal dispute, with Western Digital threatening to block a Toshiba sale without its consent as it would represent a breach of the pair's joint chip venture.
    • More troubles at Uber? The ride-sharing giant has admitted to underpaying its New York City drivers for the past two-and-a-half years.
    • UBER said it had been calculating its commission based on the gross fare rather than the net fare, the latter of which is its national policy.
    • The back pay could run at least $45M, based on an estimate of 50,000 drivers.