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Friday, March 31, 2023


Trendless Tuesday – A Pause in the News Cycle

Not much is going on.

If I were lazy, I'd stop right there and that would be the morning report.  Even Trump hasn't done anything new to piss me off this morning.  He even confirmed yesterday's rant on Kushner's Saudi agenda by saying about the arrested Saudi Princes that "Some of those they are harshly treating have been 'milking' their country for years." 

I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing….

One of those princes, keep in mind, is Rupert Murdoch's partner, Alwaleed Talal, who went against Trump during the election, tweeting:


You are a disgrace not only to the GOP but to all America.

Withdraw from the U.S presidential race as you will never win.

Well ha, ha, ha Alwaleed – now Trump is President and you are in jail and we are selling a ton of military equipment to your rivals in Saudi Arabia – how's that for petty vengeance?  Do you think Putin is the only person who can interfere in foreign elections?  NO ONE interferes with other countries like America – we are number one!

This is indeed a new era in politics as we used to keep it a secret when we used our influence overseas to elminate our enemies – now we tweet about and get 93,000 likes…  Are we great yet?  Trump also did not hold back while in Japan, shown here at his high-level meeting with Shinzo Abe but, right after the game, Trump lashed out at Japan's trade policies, saying:

“We want fair and open trade. But right now, our trade with Japan is not fair and it’s not open. The US has suffered massive trade deficits with Japan for many, many years.

Our Trade Deficit with Japan last year was $69Bn but we're 4 times bigger than they are yet we "only" buy twice as much of their stuff as they do of ours, economically, how do we make that "fair"?  Should Japan buy 4x more stuff from the US and dump all their other Trading Partners or should we buy 3/4 less stuff and maybe ban Toyota and Sony in the US?  As Trump said:

“Many millions of cars are sold by Japan into the United States, whereas virtually no cars go from the US into Japan…Try building your cars in the United States instead of shipping them over. That’s not too much to ask. Is that rude to ask?

Image result for us japan tradeOf course, that statement was factless as Japanese automakers manufactured 4.2M cars and 4.5M engines in the US last year and Toyota (2.6M), Honda (1.6M) and Nissan (1.5M) combined sold 5.7M cars total so, essentially, they already build the vast majority of their cars in the US – about 50 times more than Tesla (TSLA) makes!  

In truth, the whole thing is really a ploy to get Japan to buy more US Military equipment – that's what Trump is really there to sell and Military equipment is something Japan doesn't currently buy much of so they can "fix" the trade imbalance by arming up.  

Trump is in Seoul today, less than 100 miles from Kim Jung Un and I can't wait to hear what nuggets come in today's speeches.  Tomorrow he's off to Beijing, where I'm sure he will fix China's Trade Deficit too and then it's off to Da Nang and then Hanoi – for some reason spending two days in a country he worked hard not to visit when he was younger.  Trump's trip concludes on Sunay in Manilla and then it's Mueller time next Monday…

Meanwhile, when the news is dull we play the technicals and, this morning, my note to our Members was:

Europe trending down since the open, /NKD rejected harshly at 23,000 (22,880 now) despite the strong Dollar (94.98) and that makes Dow (/YM) a fun short at the 23,500 line with VERY TIGHT STOPS ABOVE.  Oil $57.50 is another fun short and /RB is already pulling back to $1.818 while /NG is rejected at $3.15.

We'll see what happens today but yesterday's BS story about Disney (DIS) buying Fox (FOXA) was typical of the M&A rumors that mark a market top – as fund managers try to stir up excitement in the sectors they are trying to dump.  

Be careful out there.



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WTW – Up huge.  Don't mess with Oprah !

Shorts (almost 40% of the float) in a world of hurt.


Do I have this correct?  I call sell the Dec $7.50 put for $1.15 and the $5 call for $1.65,  and as long as the stock price is between $7.50 and $5, 100 shares will be put to me and taken from me while I net $2.75?

Thanks, got to get more sleep, can't even do math.

Phil/RB – are you holding through inventory or were you able to get out even?

13 Ways to Make Money in a Hurry


Do you still have TLT for Jan 2018.  I bought the $123 puts and sold the $116 puts and TLT is right back up.  Any thoughts on a roll?  Thanks.

Get your popcorn ready: Jeff Sessions is being forced to testify about the exploding Trump-Russia scandal

Donald Trump may have just incriminated himself and Jared Kushner in Saudi Arabia arrests

What do you think of the current value of   BBBY, GIS, GME, M ?

Gonna make it back to even today on the SPX.  Nice.

SGPY…still in them.  Still holding.  Speculative yes.




Just another thing I don't understand, how can 20 year rates keep going down if the economy is doing better, the FED is winding down asset purchases, there's a rate hike coming in Dec., the dollar is climbing, even BOE just raised rates.  Just look at Nov of 2016.



Allegheny Tech announces intention to offer 17 mln shares of common stock in public offering  (25.47 -1.43)

FNSR appears to be up over 2% after hours

any opinion on TEF?


The chart looks like it was being bought in Sept/Oct but still couldn't hold 200 day or July low, but $10 looks like a good place for a bounce.  My stop would be below 9.66.  Isn't TA fun. 

phil and crs101010

bathtub analogy

sorry i dont have link it was on bnn news on tv

if you go to bnn.ca for this morning they archive all segments of show it was an advisor from rs energy

phil i guess its been a couple years but you used to use a bathtub analogy where tub was filling and emptying at the same time to describe how all the stimulous being provided could eventually spill over and explode into inflation. 

the bnn guest used the same analogy to explain how marginal natural gas reserve affect that market

i was just surprised to hear it used word for word and thought somebody must have borrowed that from phil.


API report reveals drop in crude inventories, but jump in gas stocks

11:44 a.m. Today – By Mark DeCambre

API report reveals drop in crude inventories, but jump in gas stocksThe American Petroleum Institute reported Tuesday that U.S. crude supplies dropped by 1.562 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 3, according to sources. The API data also showed a rise of 520,000 barrels in gasoline stockpiles, while inventories of distillates lost 3.13 million barrels, sources said. Supply data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday morning. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts expect the EIA to report a fall of 2.7 million barrels in crude inventories, along with declines of 2.25 million barrels for gasoline and 1.85 million barrels for distillate supplies. December crude was at $56.98 barrel in electronic trading, down from the settlement of $57.20 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.


Awesome documentary on the solutions to our biggest problems, this is a link to the trailer. I highly recommend it! Raised my spirits…

Unbelievable. I guess I’ll be teaching my kid to make sure his bullet proof backpack is ready for school. Sadly, that’s our reality now. 

This Florida school is selling bulletproof panels for students' backpacks http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/07/health/bulletproof-panels-backpacks-trnd/index.html

muck….thanks for sharing!, Finally!! I feel a lot more optimistic as well.  There is hope.

Phil – direction of the USD.  I'm looking to sell physical gold and silver and was wondering if there are any short term events that would make you sell now or wait.  thanks

Latch/Mkucstars – you may also enjoy this.. 

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