Not much is going on.
If I were lazy, I'd stop right there and that would be the morning report. Even Trump hasn't done anything new to piss me off this morning. He even confirmed yesterday's rant on Kushner's Saudi agenda by saying about the arrested Saudi Princes that "Some of those they are harshly treating have been 'milking' their country for years."
I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing….
One of those princes, keep in mind, is Rupert Murdoch's partner, Alwaleed Talal, who went against Trump during the election, tweeting:
You are a disgrace not only to the GOP but to all America.
Withdraw from the U.S presidential race as you will never win.
Well ha, ha, ha Alwaleed – now Trump is President and you are in jail and we are selling a ton of military equipment to your rivals in Saudi Arabia – how's that for petty vengeance? Do you think Putin is the only person who can interfere in foreign elections? NO ONE interferes with other countries like America – we are number one!
This is indeed a new era in politics as we used to keep it a secret when we used our influence overseas to elminate our enemies – now we tweet about and get 93,000 likes… Are we great yet? Trump also did not hold back while in Japan, shown here at his high-level meeting with Shinzo Abe but, right after the game, Trump lashed out at Japan's trade policies, saying:
“We want fair and open trade. But right now, our trade with Japan is not fair and it’s not open. The US has suffered massive trade deficits with Japan for many, many years.
Our Trade Deficit with Japan last year was $69Bn but we're 4 times bigger than they are yet we "only" buy twice as much of their stuff as they do of ours, economically, how do we make that "fair"? Should Japan buy 4x more stuff from the US and dump all their other Trading Partners or should we buy 3/4 less stuff and maybe ban Toyota and Sony in the US? As Trump said:
“Many millions of cars are sold by Japan into the United States, whereas virtually no cars go from the US into Japan…Try building your cars in the United States instead of shipping them over. That’s not too much to ask. Is that rude to ask?”
Of course, that statement was factless as Japanese automakers manufactured 4.2M cars and 4.5M engines in the US last year and Toyota (2.6M), Honda (1.6M) and Nissan (1.5M) combined sold 5.7M cars total so, essentially, they already build the vast majority of their cars in the US – about 50 times more than Tesla (TSLA) makes!
In truth, the whole thing is really a ploy to get Japan to buy more US Military equipment – that's what Trump is really there to sell and Military equipment is something Japan doesn't currently buy much of so they can "fix" the trade imbalance by arming up.
Trump is in Seoul today, less than 100 miles from Kim Jung Un and I can't wait to hear what nuggets come in today's speeches. Tomorrow he's off to Beijing, where I'm sure he will fix China's Trade Deficit too and then it's off to Da Nang and then Hanoi – for some reason spending two days in a country he worked hard not to visit when he was younger. Trump's trip concludes on Sunay in Manilla and then it's Mueller time next Monday…
Meanwhile, when the news is dull we play the technicals and, this morning, my note to our Members was:
Europe trending down since the open, /NKD rejected harshly at 23,000 (22,880 now) despite the strong Dollar (94.98) and that makes Dow (/YM) a fun short at the 23,500 line with VERY TIGHT STOPS ABOVE. Oil $57.50 is another fun short and /RB is already pulling back to $1.818 while /NG is rejected at $3.15.
We'll see what happens today but yesterday's BS story about Disney (DIS) buying Fox (FOXA) was typical of the M&A rumors that mark a market top – as fund managers try to stir up excitement in the sectors they are trying to dump.
Be careful out there.
Well, not much of a pullback other than /TF, which is still down 1.25%.
3-year not auction just went off with low demand but we'll see where 10s and 30s end up before drawing conclusions.
/NG popping again.
I have to check out of this hotel, back on around 2.
WTW – Up huge. Don't mess with Oprah !
Shorts (almost 40% of the float) in a world of hurt.
Do I have this correct? I call sell the Dec $7.50 put for $1.15 and the $5 call for $1.65, and as long as the stock price is between $7.50 and $5, 100 shares will be put to me and taken from me while I net $2.75?
WTW/Albo – That was easy money when we got in. We took two rounds of that one.
GNC/Baron – Not quite. You collect $2.80 but below $7.50, you must pay back the short putter and above $5, you must pay the short caller so ANYTHING between $5 and $7.50 means you give $2.50 back (but you make 0.30) and that's your max profit but under $4.70 you begin to lose money (because the $7.50 puts are more than $2.80 in the money and over $7.80 you lose money too from paying off the short $5s. So, to summarize, you make 0.30 between $5 and $7.50 and breakevens are $4.70 – $7.80 but outside of that, there's no limit on your losses.
Those can be valid plays with less crazy stocks but it's a really boring way to play things.
If I'm going to play that game, I'd rather sell puts and sell calls in ranges that are not likely to be hit but, if the market collapses – you can still get hit really hard for huge losses – which is why you never see me doing it.
Thanks, got to get more sleep, can't even do math.
Phil/RB – are you holding through inventory or were you able to get out even?
Do you still have TLT for Jan 2018. I bought the $123 puts and sold the $116 puts and TLT is right back up. Any thoughts on a roll? Thanks.
What do you think of the current value of BBBY, GIS, GME, M ?
/RB/Ravi – I scaled back to 4 short at about 1.80 so still down a bit but I think the move up is all based on Saudi hype and won't be sustained by inventories.
TLT/Baron – I don't have any TLT. Don't remember having any recently either. I know we though $130 was silly last year but that had a big sell-off to $114 and I don't remember doing it again. If you have that spread, the Jan $123 puts are 0.85 and the June $130 ($6.70)/125 ($3.90) bear put spread is $2.70 so maybe pay $1.85 for that roll and sell the Jan $123 puts to some other sucker to help pay for it?
Current values/Tangled – Ask me tomorrow when I'm back in the command center. Can't give you a proper answer from a laptop in a hotel.
Speaking of which, indexes still looking weakish into the close but nothing dramatic.
Gonna make it back to even today on the SPX. Nice.
SGPY…still in them. Still holding. Speculative yes.
Just another thing I don't understand, how can 20 year rates keep going down if the economy is doing better, the FED is winding down asset purchases, there's a rate hike coming in Dec., the dollar is climbing, even BOE just raised rates. Just look at Nov of 2016.
Wow, nice slam to green up the close.
RUT still a disaster.
Allegheny Tech announces intention to offer 17 mln shares of common stock in public offering (25.47 -1.43)
FNSR appears to be up over 2% after hours
any opinion on TEF?
The chart looks like it was being bought in Sept/Oct but still couldn't hold 200 day or July low, but $10 looks like a good place for a bounce. My stop would be below 9.66. Isn't TA fun.
phil and crs101010
sorry i dont have link it was on bnn news on tv
if you go to bnn.ca for this morning they archive all segments of show it was an advisor from rs energy
phil i guess its been a couple years but you used to use a bathtub analogy where tub was filling and emptying at the same time to describe how all the stimulous being provided could eventually spill over and explode into inflation.
the bnn guest used the same analogy to explain how marginal natural gas reserve affect that market
i was just surprised to hear it used word for word and thought somebody must have borrowed that from phil.
Maybe, but I don’t mind, I don’t need to be famous, I just like to influence the global conversation.
API report reveals drop in crude inventories, but jump in gas stocks
11:44 a.m. Today – By Mark DeCambre
API report reveals drop in crude inventories, but jump in gas stocksThe American Petroleum Institute reported Tuesday that U.S. crude supplies dropped by 1.562 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 3, according to sources. The API data also showed a rise of 520,000 barrels in gasoline stockpiles, while inventories of distillates lost 3.13 million barrels, sources said. Supply data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday morning. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts expect the EIA to report a fall of 2.7 million barrels in crude inventories, along with declines of 2.25 million barrels for gasoline and 1.85 million barrels for distillate supplies. December crude was at $56.98 barrel in electronic trading, down from the settlement of $57.20 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Awesome documentary on the solutions to our biggest problems, this is a link to the trailer. I highly recommend it! Raised my spirits…
Unbelievable. I guess I’ll be teaching my kid to make sure his bullet proof backpack is ready for school. Sadly, that’s our reality now.
This Florida school is selling bulletproof panels for students' backpacks http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/07/health/bulletproof-panels-backpacks-trnd/index.html
muck….thanks for sharing!, Finally!! I feel a lot more optimistic as well. There is hope.
Phil – direction of the USD. I'm looking to sell physical gold and silver and was wondering if there are any short term events that would make you sell now or wait. thanks
Latch/Mkucstars – you may also enjoy this..