Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

Trendless Tuesday – A Pause in the News Cycle

Not much is going on.

If I were lazy, I'd stop right there and that would be the morning report.  Even Trump hasn't done anything new to piss me off this morning.  He even confirmed yesterday's rant on Kushner's Saudi agenda by saying about the arrested Saudi Princes that "Some of those they are harshly treating have been 'milking' their country for years." 

I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing….

One of those princes, keep in mind, is Rupert Murdoch's partner, Alwaleed Talal, who went against Trump during the election, tweeting:


You are a disgrace not only to the GOP but to all America.

Withdraw from the U.S presidential race as you will never win.

Well ha, ha, ha Alwaleed – now Trump is President and you are in jail and we are selling a ton of military equipment to your rivals in Saudi Arabia – how's that for petty vengeance?  Do you think Putin is the only person who can interfere in foreign elections?  NO ONE interferes with other countries like America – we are number one!

This is indeed a new era in politics as we used to keep it a secret when we used our influence overseas to elminate our enemies – now we tweet about and get 93,000 likes…  Are we great yet?  Trump also did not hold back while in Japan, shown here at his high-level meeting with Shinzo Abe but, right after the game, Trump lashed out at Japan's trade policies, saying:

“We want fair and open trade. But right now, our trade with Japan is not fair and it’s not open. The US has suffered massive trade deficits with Japan for many, many years.

Our Trade Deficit with Japan last year was $69Bn but we're 4 times bigger than they are yet we "only" buy twice as much of their stuff as they do of ours, economically, how do we make that "fair"?  Should Japan buy 4x more stuff from the US and dump all their other Trading Partners or should we buy 3/4 less stuff and maybe ban Toyota and Sony in the US?  As Trump said:

“Many millions of cars are sold by Japan into the United States, whereas virtually no cars go from the US into Japan…Try building your cars in the United States instead of shipping them over. That’s not too much to ask. Is that rude to ask?

Image result for us japan tradeOf course, that statement was factless as Japanese automakers manufactured 4.2M cars and 4.5M engines in the US last year and Toyota (2.6M), Honda (1.6M) and Nissan (1.5M) combined sold 5.7M cars total so, essentially, they already build the vast majority of their cars in the US – about 50 times more than Tesla (TSLA) makes!  

In truth, the whole thing is really a ploy to get Japan to buy more US Military equipment – that's what Trump is really there to sell and Military equipment is something Japan doesn't currently buy much of so they can "fix" the trade imbalance by arming up.  

Trump is in Seoul today, less than 100 miles from Kim Jung Un and I can't wait to hear what nuggets come in today's speeches.  Tomorrow he's off to Beijing, where I'm sure he will fix China's Trade Deficit too and then it's off to Da Nang and then Hanoi – for some reason spending two days in a country he worked hard not to visit when he was younger.  Trump's trip concludes on Sunay in Manilla and then it's Mueller time next Monday…

Meanwhile, when the news is dull we play the technicals and, this morning, my note to our Members was:

Europe trending down since the open, /NKD rejected harshly at 23,000 (22,880 now) despite the strong Dollar (94.98) and that makes Dow (/YM) a fun short at the 23,500 line with VERY TIGHT STOPS ABOVE.  Oil $57.50 is another fun short and /RB is already pulling back to $1.818 while /NG is rejected at $3.15.

We'll see what happens today but yesterday's BS story about Disney (DIS) buying Fox (FOXA) was typical of the M&A rumors that mark a market top – as fund managers try to stir up excitement in the sectors they are trying to dump.  

Be careful out there.


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!

Comments (reverse order)

    You must be logged in to make a comment.
    You can sign up for a membership or log in

    Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

    Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

  1. TEVA-Tied up yesterday and just getting caught up.  This is going to be a patience play.  I think management may have already given up on the IG rating especially given where spreads are and the nature of the HY indices.  That would allow them some flexibility to buy back stock sooner rather than later and it's a bargain at these level. 


    ~~Fitch Ratings has downgraded Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited's (Teva) ratings, including the company's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'BB' from 'BBB-'. The Rating Outlook is Negative.

    * Fitch's rating action reflects the belief that Teva is facing significant
      operational stress at a time when it needs to reduce debt from the August
      2016 acquisition of Actavis' generic drug business. Pricing pressure in
      Teva's North American generics segment and erosion of sales of Copaxone will
      continue to weigh on free cash flow in the near term, requiring the company
      to continue to sell assets or find external capital resources to meet debt
      obligations in 2018 and 2019 and beyond.
    * The Negative Outlook reflects the uncertainty around whether the company's
      challenges will deepen and the nature and timing of the company's response to
      such challenges such as whether Teva would seek equity financing to reduce
      its debt burden, Fitch stated.
    * Deleveraging Necessary: Â Teva needs to reduce debt following its acquisition
      of Actavis' generic business. Estimated pro forma leverage was above 4.0x at
      deal close, and Fitch looks for leverage to stay elevated over the ratings
      horizon absent aggressive and committed deleveraging. Teva has a number of
      levers to achieve deleveraging, including reducing costs to stabilize EBITDA
      and paying down debt with FCF (including reducing its dividend) and asset
      sales proceeds. It is in the process of restructuring and integrating the
      Actavis acquisition. Teva announced on Nov. 1, 2017 that it completed the
      divestiture of PARAGARD to CooperSurgical for $1.1 billion and on Nov. 2,
      2017 it announced that it completed the sale of Plan B One-Step for $675
      million. Fitch believes the proceeds of these and future sales will be used
      to repay term loan debt. In total, Fitch expects the proceeds from the sales
      of the entire global Women's Health business will be approximately $2.3
    * Generic Pricing Headwinds:Â Pricing pressure, particularly on the U.S.
      generics business, which comprises 23% of total revenues for the nine months
      ended Sept. 30, 2017, will continue to meaningfully weigh on revenue and
      margins in the near term. Fitch is forecasting 10% price erosion for U.S.
      generics in 2018 and 5% erosion in 2019. Teva's ability to counter price
      erosion in the base generics business is limited because of consolidation
      amongst purchasers of generics drugs and increased competition due to faster
      FDA approvals of competitor products.
    * Over the medium to long term, Fitch believes that Teva may benefit from its
      focus on innovative pharmaceuticals and difficult to manufacture, chemically
      complex drugs, which generally command relatively more defensible prices and
      margins. However, the commoditized portion of its generic drug portfolio is
      more prone to pricing pressure. That pressure, combined with the headwinds to
      the Copaxone franchise discussed below, is expected to result in gross
      leverage for Teva remaining above 5x by year-end 2019, Fitch stated.
    * Competition from Generic Copaxone 40mg: Compounding the generic pricing
      headwinds, Teva's best-selling branded product, Copaxone (Fitch estimates is
      approximately 15-20% of sales; approximately 40-50% of operating profits), is
      gradually declining in sales. Generic competition for Copaxone is expected in
      the last quarter of 2017 in the U.S. market in light of the FDA approval of a
      generic version of both the 20mg and 40mg formulations of the drug. The
      effect of this generic launch will depend on the resolution of ongoing
      litigation surrounding the IP, but it will likely accelerate Teva's revenue
      declines upon entrance. Fitch understands that the negative impact of this
      launch may be a reduction of approximately $0.25 per share in Q417, Fitch
    * Asset Sales Required:Â Teva is taking meaningful steps to reduce costs and
      stabilize margins. However, just operational stabilization and dividend
      reduction will be insufficient to provide the FCF needed to deleverage below
      the 4.0x level that is consistent with an investment grade profile by year
      end 2018. Given the expected further deterioration in both the U.S. generic
      business and Copaxone sales in 2018, today's downgrade reflects Fitch's
      expectation that Teva is unlikely to meet its 4.0x target even considering
      asset sales. Management has entered into definitive agreements for $2.3
      billion in asset sales so far in 2017, with about $1.8 billion of these sales
      completed, and proceeds from additional asset sales along with FCF are
      expected to help reduce debt due in 2018. As with all asset sales, the
      valuation multiples (sales price/EBITDA) are variable and important inputs
      into the deleveraging potential, Fitch said.
    * Acquisition Strengthens Leading Position:Â The acquisition of Actavis
      Generics (Gx) solidified Teva's position as the largest generic drug firm in
      the world, combining the #1 (Teva) and #4 (Actavis Gx) players. The firm has
      unmatched scale in most relevant pharmaceutical markets. Scale has begun to
      factor even more prominently for generic drug makers in recent years, as the
      largest purchasers have consolidated dramatically in the U.S. and Western
      Europe. The combination gives Teva a more competitive value proposition for
      these very large global purchasers, albeit diminished over the past year
      because of such consolidation, Fitch stated.
    * Changes in Key Management: Teva's CEO Erez Vigodman left the firm in February
      2017 and was replaced by Kare Schultz in Sept. 2017. Schultz has nearly 30
      years of experience in the global pharmaceutical industry, most recently
      serving as CEO of H. Lundbeck A/S where he drove significant restructuring
      efforts. As a result of the change in senior leadership, Fitch will be keenly
      interested in the plans developed by Teva to respond to existing challenges
      and how those plans balance the interests of shareholders and debt holders,
      Fitch stated.

  2. thanks Seer! I hope you are right about being a bargain.


    You mean like this guy?

  3. In Seoul, Trump calls for North Korea to make a deal

  4. Dmulligan – saw your SCO question from yesterday and i believe we already did a roll of our SCO position rolled from 10 $35 puts out to April 2018 $29 puts (15 of them) and adjusted the BCS i believe, unless this wasnt official? If you look back at last week you should be able to find it

  5. ~~ VRX – Valeant Pharma +11% following earnings/guidance .

  6. TEVA

    Now this pisses me off.  I shorted a few hundred shares of TEVA after the close, and after hours it went higher, not lower, so I bought them back.  How does that happen?

  7. ~~•Tesla (TSLA) files for shelf offering of 34,772 shares of common stock on behalf of a selling stockholder.

    GET ME OUT ! 8-)

  8. The SCO position I have from last week as a new trade was April 27/37 BCS with  $29 puts, with a 4 to 3 ratio, BCS to puts.

  9. Baron--as a PSW member you are not allowed to have gains shorting TEVA!!! 

  10. Good Morning.

  11. Jabo, did you do that, holding up TEVA afterhours?  What about this morning?



    Teva Pharma downgraded to Reduce from Hold at HSBC Securities  (12.41)



  13. Good morning!

    TEVA/Seer – Downgrade couldn't be helped as they are cleaning house and not relevant unless they are borrowing or rolling in the near future – neither of which are necessary.  

    Patience/Jabob – Remember what Buffett says:

    Image result for stock market patience


    Image result for stock market patience


    Image result for stock market patience

    Image result for stock market patience

    Image result for stock market patience

    SCO/CRS – We discussed a roll but didn't do it officially and now we're $3 worse off.   Still 2 weeks to go so no rush as I don't think it will get worse (though that's what I said last time!). 

    TSLA/Albo – That's interesting.  Do you think 34,772 shares can't be sold without trashing the price?  Seems odd with so many shares traded.  

    Dollar rejected at 95.

    Oil coming down to $57!   Hopefully much lower into inventories.

  14. You need more than patience to invest in these FU stocks…

  15. Phil/Pharm/SGYP,

    Earnings in this week. What is your take?


  16. CNN Poll: Trump approval at new low as Russia concerns grow

  17. Why debt from GOP tax cuts might impose a painful price

  18. Trump’s Trojan Horse tax cut

  19. How issuing pardons could end Trump’s presidency

  20. Bernie Sanders warns of ‘international oligarchy’ after Paradise Papers leak

  21. Phil/TEVA-the company has $4.2B in term loans outstanding ytd with pricing grids that are affected by any downgrade.  The TLs will likely get paid down first, but that leaves them with about $8.2B in front-end bond maturities they will need to refinance over the next 6-18 months ($2.3 in '18, $3.2 in '19, $2.7 in '20).

  22. NGL – Up big on good quarterly results.  Stock still yielding almost 13%.

    Went ex-divd Friday by .39.

  23. Fiji calls for urgency in talks to implement climate accord

  24. SGYP/Pat – Pharm thinks they'll pull through so I'm willing to stick with them but not much conviction on my part.  A bit of a lottery ticket and I certainly don't expect anything exciting from earnings or even guidance this Q.

    TEVA/Seer – Sorry, I didn't mean not affected at all but, relative to the bulk of their debt, which comes around in the late 2019-2021 range – it's not a big deal.

    I expect, by next year, they will have righted the ship.

    NGL/Albo – Interesting but really erratic with earnings and now they are selling $200M worth of their propane business, which is 15% of their company after taking a $173M loss in Q3 (but $117M was impairment).  Still, a bit ugly for my taste but a fun gamble given the dividend.

    Oil at $57 but now weak bounce ($57.10), so hopefully breaking lower.   Tight stop at $57.10 to lock in $400 gains.

  25. RUT has flatlined since Oct first. Phil what do you make of this?

  26. NGL – Phil, Speculative for sure with that high yield.

    ~~FWIW – This was my play on Aug 22.

    Bought 1k shares at $9.45

    Sold 10 April 10 calls for $.88.

    Sold 10 April 7.5 puts for .75.

    Will look to roll the calls up and out.

  27. Using DWT/DGAZ for CL/NG play.  Up some but watching oil  and nat. gas closely.  What do you think?

  28. Phil/SKT

    Have you had a chance to look at SKT?

  29. You just have to love these mofo momos! PCLN earnings last night, with strong results, but light(er) guidance and the stock responded somewhat more volatile than usual post earnings with a drop of just under $200 to $1715.

    Phil – you had been helping me out on managing a PCLN position – and we agreed to touch base after earnings.

    My current position is a Jan 19, 2000/2200 BCS (10 contracts) with a half cover of Jan 18, short 2000 calls (5). Your recommendation was to cash out the Jan 19 $2000 long calls of the BCS (currently at $100) to finance the purchase of a Jan 20 1750/1950 BCS (currently at $85) and leave the Jan 19 2200 short calls naked – with a tight stop at $100.

    There may be more interesting BCS combinations given this drop:

    The current short covers, Jan 18 2000 calls are now down to $3.50 so probably worth closing out.

    Jan 20 1600/1800 for $100

    Jan 20 1540/1740 for $107

    Jan 20 1640/1840 for $100

    Any of these are financed by the sale of the long call leg (Jan 19, $2000). 

    I would end up, for example, with the following combination:

    Short 10 Jan 19, $2200 calls (these roll to the Jan 20, $2500 calls)

    Long 10 Jan 20, $1600/1800 BCS

    A few questions:

    Would you consider the Jan 19, 2200 as a full cover, so therefore too much risk to start selling additional short call covers?

    Are the Jan 19, 2200 covers so far out of the money, that it would be better to cash them out and roll to something like the Mar 18, $1900 short calls which can be sold for $30? 

  30. M under 18 WTF?

    These FU stocks are brutal. 

  31. Phil, PCLN down a further 10%. Wonder why. Strether

  32. PCLN -Started a deep OTM short put position by selling 2 Apr 2018 1300 puts for $9.

  33. phil

    a guy from rs energy on bnn just used your bathtub analogy to explain the market for natural gas

    they praised him for such a descriptive analogy he didnt take credit he said he heard it from a client


  34. what was the bathtub analogy for NG, think i missed that one? 

  35. RUT/Den – Still under my theory that money is generally exiting the market and leading stocks are being used to prop up the indexes (and force more incoming IRA/401K money into the indexes).  Also, RUT underperformance reflects my other theory that companies that service the bottom 90% are not doing as well as companies that service the Top 10%.

    NGL/Albo – You have a sure thing $2.12 profit plus the dividends.  Not sure if there's a better roll but, if you are worried about making more, just sell some $12.50 puts for $2 and worst case is you buy more at $10.50 or you make another $2 without having to mess around with rolls.

    DWT/Lala – There's a lot less friction cost to trading Futures but, if you are more comfortable with the ETFs then sure, it's valid.  

    SKT/Baron – Not much to do ahead of earnings, just have to wait and see but I think they are a great deal down here.  Our LTP position is down a bit, with March $22.50 calls at $2.70, now $1.65 but I'm not going to spend now to change it when it's good money after bad if I'm wrong or not necessary if I'm right.  Either way, better to put money in AFTER we have better information.

    Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc (SKT): Should The Future Outlook Worry You?

    PCLN/Winston – Crazy, isn't it?    

    Let's see, my original take was:

    PCLN/Winston – That's the problem with such expensive stocks, they can break the bank hard and fast.  

    The premium is kind of crazy on the short calls so let's think about the position.  First of all, PCLN is making like $75/share, so $2,027 is not that crazy (27x) and at $1,500 I'd be buying the crap out of them but I'm cheap so let's assume $1,750 would be the best possible case and 30x ($2,150) should be a top.

    I assume you had a bull call spread way back when and no short puts and sold the short calls and then it got away from you.   

    The asset you have is the $1,760/1,860 bull call spread and, as you say, $65,000 and your liability is the 5 short $2,000 calls so I would flip to 5 of the 2019 $2,000 ($270)/$2,200 ($185) bull call spreads at $85 ($42,500) because I do think there will be a pullback so why have 10.  

    Then I would take the 5 short $2,000 calls ($275) and roll them to 5 short Jan $2,000 calls at $145 and sell 5 short $1,850 puts for $50 so net $195 on the new set means $80 x 5 out of pocked ($40,000) but now you have a manageable set to deal with (and less overall margin).  If PCLN goes down, then the 2019 $1,500 puts are $50 so that's the roll and, if it goes up, the puts are worthless so you can push $50 more into the next roll and, of course, you have $115 headroom on the long spread.  

    So your instincts are right, I just prefer to lower the cash and margin requirement and that way it's on the sidelines for later adjustments.  Even if PCLN goes up 10% to $2,200 – you could still add 5 $2,200 ($185)/2,400 ($118) bull call spreads for $67 ($33,500) and then you could 2x the short calls (and sell more puts) if it came to that.  

    Hope that helps – from here forward, I strongly suggest evaluating any $100 move (5%) it makes together.

    So all according to plan, more or less as we're hitting our downside target of $1,750 after missing the upside of $2,150.  It's a bit of a falling knife at the moment and the option prices haven't settled, so not the best time to do drastic stuff.  

    If I understand correctly, you still have the 2019 $2,000/2,200 bull call spread with a 1/2 cover of the Jan $2,000 calls.  Those calls ($2.80) will almost certainly expire worthless so I'd just put a stop on them at $4.  The whole point of cashing the low spread and going high was so you could roll down your long calls on a dip.  The 2019 $2,000 calls are $91 and the 2020 $1,750 ($265)/$2,000 ($171) bull call spread is $94 so I"d go for that and roll the short 2019 $2,200 calls ($51) to 1/2 the Jan $1,735s ($40) and then see what happens.  If they go higher, you do a 2x roll of the short calls with $250 upside n the spread to cover and, if it goes lower, you just sell 1/2 x lower calls and, of course, it won't take many quarters selling $40 against a $94 spread to make your money back.

    So no, I don't consider it too risky to sell a SENSIBLE amount of short calls against with the wider spread.  Oh yes, and you can sell some puts but I'd make sure they stop falling first.  The 2010 $1,300 puts are $90 – so you don't have to be greedy!   And yes to part 2 as above. 

    M/Jabob – Retail is dead, AMZN killed it.  Though you sure can't tell from Times Square this weekend. 

    PCLN/Strether – EPS guided down 10% to about $13.70 per $2,000 share was, as I said in July, a bit stretched.  Internals still look good, one problem is stronger Dollar. 

    RBS/Tom, Crs – Well that's OK because I don't remember what I said either.  Do you have a link? 

  36. Phil I never got the fill on the short CL call. when did you get the fill? when did it cross 57.50?

  37. NGL – Great idea !

    Thanks, Phil.

  38. Oil/Dreamer – Just after 8am was the last spike back to $57.50 and it came back just under at 11 for a nice re-entry too.

    If you missed it and you play with tight stops (not scaling in), that was correct, as there was no proper move over but that's the advantage to scaling in, we don't wait for it to cross since we intend to average in at a higher strike.  In this case, we simply had less than we wanted because it never gave us a better price. 

    You're welcome Albo.

  39. Big wheee! on the Russell!  Other indexes following, /NQ is the laggard.  Congrats to the /YM shorters!  

    Europe down 1% into their close so we could fall further or maybe they just dragged us down?

  40. DF/albo – for a glorious few minutes, there was some actual optimism…  but you can get a credit of .22 for each June 9/10 put/call combo now.

  41. Scott – Interesting.  Thanks.

  42. Phil – you understood correctly – and thanks for the suggestions. Seems like a very good plan. But as you say, better to see where the knife falls before making any adjustment.

    But selling PCLN puts is like taking amphetamines as a night cap!

  43. Winston – LOL

    But, no different than selling OTM naked calls.

    At least I have a 375 point cushion, and the opportunity to manage the trade. :-)

  44. PCLN put selling/Winston

    Do it in very small doses, carefully and the amphetamines will be hardly noticeable by the brain!

    I had sold a single $1700 put for $140..(could not resist) .so, I am down after yesterday but not so bad unless it decides to test $1500

  45. Maya – Small doses is indeed the key. 

    But putting on a trade like that just before earnings is doubly risky.

  46. Well, not much of a pullback other than /TF, which is still down 1.25%.

    3-year not auction just went off with low demand but we'll see where 10s and 30s end up before drawing conclusions.  

    /NG popping again.

    I have to check out of this hotel, back on around 2.

  47. WTW – Up huge.  Don't mess with Oprah !

    Shorts (almost 40% of the float) in a world of hurt.

  48. Phil/GNC

    Do I have this correct?  I call sell the Dec $7.50 put for $1.15 and the $5 call for $1.65,  and as long as the stock price is between $7.50 and $5, 100 shares will be put to me and taken from me while I net $2.75?

  49. WTW/Albo – That was easy money when we got in.  We took two rounds of that one.

    GNC/Baron – Not quite.  You collect $2.80 but below $7.50, you must pay back the short putter and above $5, you must pay the short caller so ANYTHING between $5 and $7.50 means you give $2.50 back (but you make 0.30) and that's your max profit but under $4.70 you begin to lose money (because the $7.50 puts are more than $2.80 in the money and over $7.80 you lose money too from paying off the short $5s.  So, to summarize, you make 0.30 between $5 and $7.50 and breakevens are $4.70 – $7.80 but outside of that, there's no limit on your losses. 

    Those can be valid plays with less crazy stocks but it's a really boring way to play things.  

    If I'm going to play that game, I'd rather sell puts and sell calls in ranges that are not likely to be hit but, if the market collapses – you can still get hit really hard for huge losses – which is why you never see me doing it.

  50. Thanks, got to get more sleep, can't even do math.

  51. Phil/RB – are you holding through inventory or were you able to get out even?

  52. 13 Ways to Make Money in a Hurry

  53. Phil/TLT

    Do you still have TLT for Jan 2018.  I bought the $123 puts and sold the $116 puts and TLT is right back up.  Any thoughts on a roll?  Thanks.

  54. Get your popcorn ready: Jeff Sessions is being forced to testify about the exploding Trump-Russia scandal

  55. Donald Trump may have just incriminated himself and Jared Kushner in Saudi Arabia arrests

  56. What do you think of the current value of   BBBY, GIS, GME, M ?

  57. /RB/Ravi – I scaled back to 4 short at about 1.80 so still down a bit but I think the move up is all based on Saudi hype and won't be sustained by inventories.  

    TLT/Baron – I don't have any TLT.  Don't remember having any recently either.  I know we though $130 was silly last year but that had a big sell-off to $114 and I don't remember doing it again.   If you have that spread, the Jan $123 puts are 0.85 and the June $130 ($6.70)/125 ($3.90) bear put spread is $2.70 so maybe pay $1.85 for that roll and sell the Jan $123 puts to some other sucker to help pay for it?   

    Current values/Tangled – Ask me tomorrow when I'm back in the command center.  Can't give you a proper answer from a laptop in a hotel.

    Speaking of which, indexes still looking weakish into the close but nothing dramatic.  

  58. Gonna make it back to even today on the SPX.  Nice.

    SGPY…still in them.  Still holding.  Speculative yes.

  59. Phil/TLT


  60. Phil/TLT,

    Just another thing I don't understand, how can 20 year rates keep going down if the economy is doing better, the FED is winding down asset purchases, there's a rate hike coming in Dec., the dollar is climbing, even BOE just raised rates.  Just look at Nov of 2016.

  61. Wow, nice slam to green up the close. 

    RUT still a disaster. 

  62. 16:09


    Allegheny Tech announces intention to offer 17 mln shares of common stock in public offering  (25.47 -1.43)

  63. FNSR appears to be up over 2% after hours

  64. any opinion on TEF?

  65. Jabo/TEF

    The chart looks like it was being bought in Sept/Oct but still couldn't hold 200 day or July low, but $10 looks like a good place for a bounce.  My stop would be below 9.66.  Isn't TA fun. 

  66. phil and crs101010

    bathtub analogy

    sorry i dont have link it was on bnn news on tv

    if you go to for this morning they archive all segments of show it was an advisor from rs energy

    phil i guess its been a couple years but you used to use a bathtub analogy where tub was filling and emptying at the same time to describe how all the stimulous being provided could eventually spill over and explode into inflation. 

    the bnn guest used the same analogy to explain how marginal natural gas reserve affect that market

    i was just surprised to hear it used word for word and thought somebody must have borrowed that from phil.


  67. Maybe, but I don’t mind, I don’t need to be famous, I just like to influence the global conversation.

  68. API report reveals drop in crude inventories, but jump in gas stocks

    11:44 a.m. Today - By Mark DeCambre

    API report reveals drop in crude inventories, but jump in gas stocksThe American Petroleum Institute reported Tuesday that U.S. crude supplies dropped by 1.562 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 3, according to sources. The API data also showed a rise of 520,000 barrels in gasoline stockpiles, while inventories of distillates lost 3.13 million barrels, sources said. Supply data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday morning. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts expect the EIA to report a fall of 2.7 million barrels in crude inventories, along with declines of 2.25 million barrels for gasoline and 1.85 million barrels for distillate supplies. December crude was at $56.98 barrel in electronic trading, down from the settlement of $57.20 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.


    Awesome documentary on the solutions to our biggest problems, this is a link to the trailer. I highly recommend it! Raised my spirits…

  70. Unbelievable. I guess I’ll be teaching my kid to make sure his bullet proof backpack is ready for school. Sadly, that’s our reality now. 

    This Florida school is selling bulletproof panels for students' backpacks

  71. muck….thanks for sharing!, Finally!! I feel a lot more optimistic as well.  There is hope.

  72. Phil – direction of the USD.  I'm looking to sell physical gold and silver and was wondering if there are any short term events that would make you sell now or wait.  thanks

  73. Latch/Mkucstars – you may also enjoy this..

  74. Key Takeaways From Tuesday’s Elections

  75. Jared Kushner might not be telling the truth about Russia

  76. Brave Enough to Be Angry

  77. House GOP blocks Dems on child taxes as Senate bill emerges

  78. Why Apple Should Buy Netflix

  79. Uber partners with NASA on flying taxis

  80. Big stakes in Beijing: A triumphant Xi vs. a chastised Trump