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Tinsel Tuesday – Market Decorations Expected to Last Out the Week

Image result for santa on vacationWhy are you here?

I'm not here, I'm in Las Vegas!  It's 4am here – I have nothing else to do and the markets close at 1pm (PST) and I'll have a full day of fun in the sun after that – what's your excuse?  The US markets are open but not Europe, because they are not idiots – so expect very low volumes and take nothing seriously this week.

Nothing serious seems to have happened in the morning other than Apple (AAPL) getting some negative notes on IPhone X demand that's sending that stock and their suppliers about 2.5% lower in pre-market, which should put a drag on the Nasdaq (/NQ) and the Dow and S&P – all of which have AAPL as their largest component.  This could all be BS, where unscrupulous fund managers are taking advantage of the holiday – as well as Apple's refustal to comment on rumors – to knock the stock down.  

We can play along by shorting the Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) but they are already falling but the Russell (/TF) is lagging at 1,545 so I'd short them for a cross below, with tight stops above.  Speaking of Futures, congrats to those who played along with our long play on Natural Gas (/NGV8) from last Wednesday's Live Trading Webinar as we got a great pop this morning and an even nicer $1,200 gain – Merry Christmas to all of our Members!  

Now Coffee (/KC) has dipped back to $120, which is where we like to play them long with tight stops below that line.  We already put that note out to our Members earlier this morning, in our Live Chat Room.  The Nasdaq already hit our $1,000 per contract goal for gains from last week's short, where I said to our Members on Thursday morning:

Dow looks intent on giving us another chance to short at 24,850 (/YM) and that should be 2,690 (/ES), 6,500 (/NQ) and 1,550 (/TF) so all good shorting spots to watch (with tight stops above, of course).  

/RB is coming down nicely now, $1.73 so congrats on trade #2 from the Webinar – now we just need /NGV8 to pick up by October….

The Dow has been good for a 100-point drop as well, that's good for gains of $500 per contract and we can now set stops at 24,750 but maybe a bit lower if AAPL opens on a down note.  The Russell (/TF), as noted is now a re-short at 1,545 and that too has gained $500 per contract, so far

This is how we pay for Christmas while keeping our CASH!!! safely on the sidelines.  Meanwhile, for a dead week we have a lot of data including Dallas and Richmond Fed Reports this morning, Case-Shiller and Consumer Confidence tomorrow, Consumer Comfort on Thursday and Chicago PMI on Friday so there are several things that can move the market – especially in thinly traded conditions.

Looking further forward, the Center for Economics and Business Research published a report designed to get attention stating that "Despite temporary setbacks … India’s economy has still caught up with that of France and the UK and in 2018 will have overtaken them both to become the world’s fifth largest economy in dollar terms." and that "China is likely to overtake the United States as the world’s No.1 economy in 2032."

Since China is about half the size of the US now, it means their growth would have to outpace the US by about 6% a year for the next 15 years so, either their 6% growth forecasts are low or Trump's 4% growth forecasts for the US are too high – we'll have to wait and see but the US getting all protectionist while China opens up new trade deals is a great way to kick-start the decline of the US on the World stage – Mission Accomplished team Vlad & Don – we're already losing the perception game:

Image result for us china economic power 2017

Why is China outgrowing the US?  Infrastructure investing, especially public transport, has mobilized their populations and a push to raise salaries has had a dramatic impact on the GDP – things we are doing the opposite of here in the US.  We'll have to consider some international diversification in 2018  but, at the same time, stay aware that China's growth has come from massive Government spending and the PBOC has recently said that local governments who have not been responsible with their finances will NOT be backed up by the Central Government – that can be very interesting indeed.

“China must have an example like the bankruptcy in Detroit. Only if we allow local state-owned firms and governments to go bankrupt will investors believe the central government will break the implicit guarantee.” 

May we live in interesting times….


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  1. Morning Phil,

    What are your thoughts on AR ? Antero Resources. What would be the set up you may recommend ?

    Thanks as always.


  2. Merry Christmas Everyone.

    Try as I might to avoid being naughty Santa left me biologically contaminated coal this year and I spent Sat, Sun and half of Mon in bed.  Better now and lots to do once we get through the opening having lost a few days. Hope everyone got what they wanted and all is well in the world.

  3. AAPL – Major hit piece on this on Monday …. smells lot some manipulation from analysts…  I've never heard of one of the firms … on a week like this you know it will be tough for the US firms to defend it 

  4. AAPL – I have a long over all position on AAPL but have about 25 percent of it shorted in the 1st 2 quarters of the year to protect it some…. those are up today.  but the stock is taking a beating.   Post a major announcement stock usually heads south between April and May.  I think this year this take down will occur much sooner.

  5. Phil/GOGO

    I have the May 10/11 BCS with $12 puts for a net entry of (.45).  Every leg is showing a negative. the worst are the $11 calls I sold for .65.  I see GOGO now has options out to 2020.  Any thoughts?  Thanks.

  6. Good morning!

    Wow, AAPL down, as expected but Dow rammed higher along with the others, except the Nas, which can't escape AAPL's gravity.

    AR/Pat – Well, they don't make money and revenues have been consistently declining so not the kind I'd be investing in unless there's some kind of story to it that I'm not aware of.  Why them?

    Glad you are recovering Baron, sucks to burn a holiday being sick.  

    AAPL/Batman – I agree, most likely BS but AAPL testing $170 now.  I do get the feeling those phones aren't going like hotcakes but I still have to wait weeks for a 256Gb version, which is the one I want but I'm not in a hurry, as I love my 6, which I think puts me in the same boat as most people.

    I don't understand why they even make a 64Gb version of a $1,200 phone – seems silly to me, clearly we're not the type of buyers looking to skimp on memory.

    Silver and gold are flying.

    Though BitCoin is back at $15,000 – I think people are starting to rethink ignoring metals.  

    AAPL/Batman – Sure, we expected a pullback after the X announcement, looking forward to buying in at the dips in our new portfolios but not expeting too much of a dip.

    GOGO/Baron – Well if you were net 0.45, the May $10 calls are $2.05, so up $1.60 and what do you care about the rest?  If you have lost faith in your $11 target with the stock at $11.22, you can take the $2.05 from the May $10s now and buy the Jan (2019) $10 ($3.05)/$15 ($1.45) bull call spread for $1.60 so you put your 0.45 back in your pocked and now you have a free $5 spread with the short May $11 calls and the short $12 puts and whatever those net out to would be the cost of your new spread.  

  7. The US has reached the last stage before collapse

  8. When to Decentralize Decision Making, and When Not To

  9. What I Was Wrong About This Year

  10. Phil / AR,

    I was reading about them as BAU Post group bought a large stake in them last quarter. They seem to be the largest NG producer and would benefit from a rising NG price. Also they have leverage / debt in control which I liked about them but wanted to get your opinion and if you can recommend me a good set up to keep them on watch list that would a great help.

    Thanks as always


  11. Phil/SCO

    We have the April 27/35 BCS with 29 puts.  I was lucky to  sell Jan/Feb 34/35 calls but maybe now is time to roll to July, or do something to take advantage of this push higher by oil on pipeline problem?  Thoughts?

  12. Chinese firm clones gene-edited dog in bid to treat cardiovascular disease

  13. US home prices surged 6.2 percent from a year ago

  14. Phil,

    This is what I was thinking from a set up prospective. Wanted to validate it with you and ensure I am on the right track of learning about "Being the house" and what you have been teaching us over the years.

    AR JAN2019 17.5 C USD 1 3.60
    AR JAN2019 20 P USD -1 2.96
    AR JAN2019 22.5 C USD -1 1.53



  15. Drawing Trump

  16. Electric bike crackdown spurs delivery worker concern

  17. AR/Pat – I'm a bit worried there's going to be over-production in the US next year as projects to extract gas are coming on-line faster than liquification and export projects are being completed.   So, I'd be cautious but, if you want to play them you just pick up the 2019 $17.50 ($3.75)/$22.50 ($1.55) bull call spread for $2.20 and that pays 127% if you're right and it's $1.56 in the money – so very low premium.  If AR goes up from here, you catch all the gains up to $22.50 and, if they go lower and you still like them, you can sell the $17.50 puts, now $1.70, for $2+ which pays for the spread and leaves you with just the downside of owning AR for net $17.50ish.

    SCO/Baron – April is still a long time away and July goes outside the time-frame these are likely to work as we expect oil to head back to $60 in the summer.  As it stands now, it simply hasn't gone down but, if you want to stick it out into the anticipated Jan/Feb sell-off, you could spend $1 to roll the $27s down to $25 and buy back the $35s for 0.40 as that will give you more flexibility to cash out on a spike higher.

    AR/Pat – On the right track, see above.

  18. LVVV- this MJ related stock has been on a tear the past week. I took a small speculative position  some months back and my cost basis is $.0025. Sold some today at $.012 which took my initial investment off the table so now it's house money. This play was/is a pure crap shoot and I rolled the dice simply because I knew some folks involved in the venture. They have a good story. 

    There is no recent news to account for the run up. My guess is this is just more speculation of the pending Jan. CA recreational pot legalization. 

  19. Thanks Phil

  20. Oil exploding higher, $59.55 and /RB $1.796 - even though there's no logic to that following oil higher because a pipeline explode in Libya so I like /RB short under the $1.80 line with tight stops above.

    Glad we took the money and ran on /NG – all the way back to $2.67 now.

    LVVV/Pstas – Cool, that's the way to play them.

  21. electric bikes – a true menace in sidewalks and bike-lanes.  I always mumble "cheater" at them as they pass me while I'm peddling in the bike lane. Growth in use follows increasing popularity of restaurant delivery services (grub hub, uber eats, seamless, etc).  This has increased competition and forced restaurants to increase their delivery range.  Half the time they go the wrong way.  So once again, blame the disruptors for enclosing the commons (sidewalks are for walking, not being run over & bike-lanes are for biking).  

  22. Thanks Phil/SCO

    Soapbox time.  I know how you feel about retail coming back (boo AMZN, better economy) but when I see or hear about people out shopping, running up debt, I think how come we haven't learned anything about consumption, debt and savings.  I have such a hard getting behind Macy's, LB, etc. because of that.  Even COST not such a great deal  as supermarkets run great specials all the time and with three different ones with 2 minutes of me, plus farmers market, why do I really need COST?

  23. EBikes/Rexx – I had one about 20 years ago when I lived in Jersey City – was fantastic for getting around.  

    /RB over 1.80, /CL testing $60.  Any excuse in a thin market and Europe is closed so more action here.  

    COST/Baron – I don't even think of them as a super-market, that's just where we go to get free samples, though we do bring some stuff home.  We mostly buy bulk items there, though I guess that includes supermarket stuff like paper towels and toilet paper.  I like COST and they are so clearly cheaper than the other stores that it doesn't make sense not to buy things there – they even have cheaper gasoline.

    I guess if you compare to specials at other markets, maybe not so great but I don't clip coupons so, for me, it's easier to just make our monthly COST run and stock up on things we know we need lots of.  Turns out though, all our new towels are from there and socks and underwear and we got a TV and a laptop and some pool furniture and a huge island float – you never know what you will find!  

    Ah, now the indexes have stopped being silly.  

  24. WDC dropped today 1.5% here my take Buy the Jan 20 BCS 65/85 for 9.50 and sell the Jan 20 67.5 put for 9.70. Gives you a .20 credit to start. Cherry calls all along the way. I have been working the stock since 2014 and in small doses (entries) I show 18K credit.

  25. And for those hungry for pizza I set up on Friday's PSW a play on PZZA did any one even read it?

  26. Pat Just above Phil gave you a nice entry on AR. I am running plays on AR since Feb. 16 up a total of 6.5K

    The stock as well carries a 6.3% div. Did you ever have a look at an armchair trade? My last one I entered 11/29 20/17.5 call/put, paying a combined monthly div. of 2.7%. Nothing to sneeze at.

  27. Yodi – I thought your pizza play was interesting – what were the reasons for the selection; the trade possibilities or the underlying business itself? The chart looks like $85 is as likely as $45, so your trade setup makes sense.

  28. Winston as you can see from the chart and change of management, I thought it was at the time to take a small gamble at this play. besides who does not like pizza?

  29. Comment content omitted because it is too long.

  30. AR/Yodi – Didn't know you were in them, thanks for trade ideas.

    Global investors back Fed's 2018 plan of 3 rate hikes

    • Global investors back Fed's 2018 outlook of 3 rate hikes of 25 bps each in a recent Reuters poll of 51 wealth managers in the U.S., Europe, the UK and Japan with two-thirds agreeing that Fed will hike rates thrice.
    • Fed fund futures price the odds of reaching 2.00-2.25% by December 2018 at 37% only.
    • Source:

    Mexico central bank intervenes to ease pressure on Peso

    • Mexico central bank sold $500M in additional foreign exchange hedges on Tuesday to ease pressure on Peso.
    • Peso hit its lowest level last week since March on concerns of impact from US corporate tax cuts and inflation.

    Texas manufacturing activity grows sharply in December

    • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey+29.7 vs. +20.0 consensus and +19.4 prior.

      Production: +32.8 vs. +15.1 prior.
    • Capacity Utilization: +26.3 vs. +17.3 prior.

      New Orders: +30.1 vs. +20.0 prior.

    Richmond Fed manufacturing gauge dips

    Long Blockchain raises capital

    • The company formerly known as Long Island Iced Tea has raised $2M in convertible debt with an additional $2M option from a U.K. private-investment outfit.
    • The money will be used to support the shift in focus from iced tea to blockchain technology.
    • Source: Press Release
    • LTEA +1% premarket

    Crude oil jumps on news of Libyan pipeline blast

    • Crude oil moves higher to near two-and-a-half year highs, turning positive following the explosion at a pipeline in Libya which feeds the Es Sider terminal; U.S. WTI +1.5% at $59.37/bbl, Brent +1.4% at $66.20/bbl.
    • It is not yet clear what impact the blast will have on Libyan production, which has been recovering in recent months after being hurt for years by conflict in the country.
    • Elsewhere, Forties pipeline operator Ineos said Sunday it is making good progress toward a restart after a hairline crack forced a closure earlier this month; a restart now is expected early in 2018.

    Best and worst independent oil and gas stock performers for 2017

    • With this week's results pending, here are the best and worst performing independent oil and gas stocks this year (greater than $300M market cap).
    • First, the top 10: 1. Viper Energy Partners (NASDAQ:VNOM+42.4%, 2. San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (NYSE:SJT+24%, 3. WildHorse Resource (NYSE:WRD+23.9%, 4. Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ:FANG+23%, 5. Stone Energy (NYSE:SGY+18.6%, 6. Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE:COG+18.1%, 7. Matador Resources (NYSE:MTDR+17.3%, 8. Permian Basin Royalty Trust (NYSE:PBT+15.2%, 9. ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP+10.7%, 10. Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:CNQ+9%.
    • The bottom 10: 1. Bonanza Creek Energy (NYSE:BCEI-73.6%, 2. EP Energy (NYSE:EPE-68.1%, 3. Range Resources (NYSE:RRC-52.1%, 4. Southwestern Energy (NYSE:SWN-50.8%, 5. Crescent Point Energy (NYSE:CPG-47%, 6. Oasis Petroleum (NYSE:OAS-46.7%, 7. Denbury Resources (NYSE:DNR-45.4%, 8. Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK-45.1%, 9. Enbridge Energy Management (NYSE:EEQ-44.7%, 10. Baytex Energy (NYSE:BTE-42.8%.

    Best and worst oil and gas drilling and exploration stock performers for 2017

    • With this week's results pending, here are the best and worst oil and gas drilling stocks this year (greater than $300M market cap).
    • First, the top 10: 1. GeoPark (NYSE:GPRK+124.8%, 2. Mammoth Energy Services (NASDAQ:TUSK+30.2%, 3. CNOOC (NYSE:CEO+14.7%, 4. Concho Resources (NYSE:CXO+14.4%, 5. Ring Energy (NYSEMKT:REI+12.7%, 6. W&T Offshore (NYSE:WTI+9.7%, 7. Petrobras A (NYSE:PBR.A+7.5%, 8. Diamond Offshore Drilling (NYSE:DO+5.1%, 9. Enerplus (NYSE:ERF-0.2%, 10. Petrobras (NYSE:PBR-1.2%.
    • The bottom 10: 1. Ocean Rig UDW (NASDAQ:ORIG-99.8%, 2. Nabors Industries (NYSE:NBR-60.6%, 3. Whiting Petroleum (NYSE:WLL-47.7%, 4. Pengrowth Energy (NYSE:PGH-44.7%, 5. Cenovus Energy (NYSE:CVE-41.9%, 6. Ensco (NYSE:ESV-41.5%, 7. Advantage Oil & Gas (NYSE:AAV-39.2%, 8. Bill Barrett (NYSE:BBG-31%, 9. Obsidian Energy (NYSE:OBE-30.5%, 10. Transocean (NYSE:RIG-29.7%.

    • With this week's results pending, here are the best and worst performing oil and gas equipment and services stocks this year (greater than $300M market cap).
    • First, the top 10: 1. ProPetro (Pending:PUMP+37.3%, 2. RPC Inc. (NYSE:RES+32.5%, 3. Newpark Resources (NYSE:NR+15.3%, 4. Seacor Holdings (NYSE:CKH+14.7%, 5. USA Compression Partners (NYSE:USAC-4.2%, 6. National Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV-5.3%, 7. McDermott International (NYSE:MDR-8.4%, 8. Andeavor Logistics (NYSE:ANDX-8.6%, 9. Core Laboratories (NYSE:CLB-10.9%, 10. Halliburton (NYSE:HAL-11.2%.
    • The bottom 10: 1. Tidewater (NYSE:TDW-77%, 2. Precision Drilling (NYSE:PDS-48.4%, 3. NOW Inc. (NYSE:DNOW-46.2%, 4. Superior Energy Services (NYSE:SPN-43.5%, 5. Bristow Group (NYSE:BRS-34.1%, 6. Basic Energy Services (NYSE:BAS-32.9%, 7. Forum Energy Technologies (NYSE:FET-31.3%, 8. Baker Hughes GE (NYSE:BHGE-28.8%, 9. Oil States International (NYSE:OIS-27.5%, 10. Oceaneering International (NYSE:OII-27.3%.

    Best and worst precious metals mining stock performers for 2017

    • With this week's results pending, here are the best and worst performing precious metals mining stocks this year (greater than $300M market cap):
    • First, the top 10: 1. Kirkland Lake Gold (NYSE:KL+179.5%, 2. Iamgold (NYSE:IAG+52.2%, 3. Seabridge Gold (NYSEMKT:SA+36.8%, 4. Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC+36.6%, 5. Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD+36.6%, 6. Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI+34.5%, 7. Franco-Nevada (NYSE:FNV+31.3%, 8. Sandstorm Gold (NYSEMKT:SAND+29.2%, 9. Randgold Resources +25.8%, 10. B2Gold (NYSEMKT:BTG+24%.
    • The bottom 10: 1. Eldorado Gold (NYSE:EGO-58.4%, 2. McEwen Mining (NYSE:MUX-22.7%, 3. Gold Standard Ventures (NYSEARCA:GSC-18.8%, 4. Harmony Gold (NYSE:HMY-16.7%, 5. NovaGold Resources (NYSEMKT:NG-12.9%, 6. Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX-9.4%, 7. Goldcorp (NYSE:GG-7.5%, 8. AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU-6.6%, 9. New Gold (NYSEMKT:NGD-6.3%, 10. Alamos Gold (NYSE:AGI-3%.


    Commodities in 2018 and beyond?

    • On a 10-year bear run relative to stocks, commodities – as measured by the S&P GSCI Total Return Index - are near a record-low vs. the S&P 500. Other instances when commodity prices were this cheap were just prior to the massive bull markets of the 70s, and the 00s. Chart here.
    • "Commodities are screaming to be bought at the expense of stocks," says financial advsior Shawn Hackett.

    Best and worst utilities stock performers for 2017

    • With this week's results pending, here are the best and worst performing utilities stocks this year (greater than $300M market cap).
    • First, the top 10: 1. Transportadora de Gas del Sur (NYSE:TGS) +160.3%, 2. NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG+129.7%, 3. Pampa Energia (NYSE:PAM+93.7%, 4. Empresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:EDN) +81.4%, 5. Kenon Holdings (NYSE:KEN) +80.5%, 6. NextEra Energy Partners (NYSEMKT:NEP+61.8%, 7. Dynegy (NYSE:DYN) +36.7%, 8. Avangrid (NYSE:AGR+34.6%, 9. Calpine (NYSE:CPN+32.1%, 10. Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (NYSE:BIP+31.1%.
    • The bottom 10: 1. Scana (NYSE:SCG-46.7%, 2. AquaVenture Holdings (NYSE:WAAS-35%, 3. CPFL Energia (NYSE:CPL-27.7%, 4. Clean Energy Fuels (NASDAQ:CLNE-27.2%, 5. PG&E (NYSE:PCG-26.6%, 6. Spark Energy (NASDAQ:SPKE-26.4%, 7. Azure Power Global (NYSE:AZRE-22%, 8. Suburban Propane Partners (NYSE:SPH-21.5%, 9. Just Energy (NYSE:JE-20.9%, 10. Eletrobras (NYSE:EBR-16.4%.

    Musk promises pickup truck

    • "Have had the core design/engineering elements in my mind for almost 5 years," says Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) Elon Musk, promising to get working on a pickup truck after Model Y. "Am dying to build it."

    Yandex buys food-delivery startup to expand UberEats

    • Bloomberg reports that Yandex (NASDAQ:YNDX) purchased food-delivery startup Foodfox to expand the planned Uber (Private:UBER) merger in Russia.
    • Terms of the acquisition weren’t disclosed but rumors put the price at under $10M.
    • Foodfox founders Maxim Firsov and Sergey Polissar will head UberEats after the merger completes in January. 
    • Foodfox works with more than 2K restaurants in Moscow compared to UberEats’ “several hundred” places. Delivery Club leads the regional market with 6.5K restaurants.   
    • Yandex shares are up 1.3%.     
    • Previously: Yandex +3.8% on approval to merge with Uber in Russia (Nov. 24)

    Retail names on the move on strong early Xmas numbers

    • According to Mastercard, retail sales (ex. autos) rose 4.9% from Nov.1 through Christmas Eve. That's the fastest pace since 2011 and compares to 3.7% for the same period in 2016.
    • E-commerce naturally drove the gain, up 18.1%.
    • Helping the figure was Christmas falling on a Monday, giving retailers a full weekend to reel in extra sales.
    • The Dow and S&P 500 are flat, and the Nasdaq is lower by 0.5%, but the SPDR Retail SPDR (NYSEARCA:XRT) is up more than 1%.
    • Macy's (M +3.6%), J.C. Penney (JCP +4.3%), Kohl's (KSS +3.6%), Dillard's (DDS+3.5%), Dicks (DKS +2.3%), Target (TGT +1.2%), Wal-Mart (WMT +0.7%), Foot Locker (FL +2.5%), Finish Line (FINL +3%), DSW (DSW +3.1%), Abercrombie (ANF +2.9%), Gap (GPS +1.5%), Express (EXPR +4.6%), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY +2.1%), Best Buy (BBY +0.7%)

    South Korea approves LG Display's $4.4B OLED plant

    • LG Display (NYSE:LPLreceives permission from South Korea to build a new $4.4B OLED panel production facility in China.
    • South Korea’s trade ministry says the approval was conditional on the company using local materials and equipment, investing in the region, and strengthening security to avoid tech leaks. 
    • LG Display held 19.3% of the large display panel market in Q3, falling to second behind China’s BOE Technology Group. LG Display had led the market since 2009.  
    • Previously: Korea Herald: Samsung will quadruple iPhone OLED output in 2018 (Dec. 20)

    Intel loses semi lead for first time in 25 years

    • Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) will fall into second place in the semiconductor market for the first time in 25 years, according to Nikkei Asian Review.
    • Samsung’s (OTC:SSNNFOTC:SSNLF) annual sales earned it top spot this year with $49.2B in revenue from January to September (+46% Y/Y) compared to Intel’s $45.7B (+6%). 
    • Samsung pushed ahead thanks to exposure to NAND and DRAM and is better positioned to benefit from increasing storage in smartphones and the data center trend. 
    • Intel relies on CPUs sold to PC makers and the PC market has slowed in the year. 
    • Intel shares are down 1.1%.  

    Disney's 'Last Jedi' leads holiday weekend box office haul

    • Disney's (DIS -0.3%Star Wars: The Last Jedi continued to rule the box office, collecting an estimated $100.7M over the four-day weekend in the U.S. and Canada, sending its gross near $400M in 11 days of release.
    • Last Jedi already ranks as the third-highest grossing movie of the year at the domestic box office, and has grossed more than $775M worldwide so far.
    • For the holiday weekend, Sony's (SNE -0.9%Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Comcast's (CMCSAPitch Perfect 3 enjoyed strong debuts, grossing $50.4M and $25.6M, respectively, while more adult-oriented offering such as Twentieth Century Fox's (FOXFOXAThe Greatest Showman and Viacom's (VIAVIABDownsizing lagged far behind.

    Raymond James: Watch Amazon's OTC drug line

    • A Raymond James analyst says Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) investors should pay attention to a new line of over-the-counter medications called “Basic Care.”  
    • Analyst John W. Ransom notes that the line is Amazon’s “first baby step into a more complete competitive threat to the drug retailers.”
    • The Basic Care products often have a lower price point than similar products sold at drugstores. Basic Care is a trademark of Perrigo, which has sold drugs on Amazon under the Good Sense brand for years. 
    • Source: Bloomberg First Word
    • Amazon shares are down 0.3% premarket.  

    CNBC: Amazon planning ad push in 2018

    • CNBC sources say Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is experimenting with ad products both on and off its platform for a 2018 push.  
    • Off-platform products could involve third-party mobile ad partnerships to sell TV and mobile ads.
    • Platform ad experiments target e-commerce searches and video products. 
    • Why would advertisers choose Amazon over ad market leaders Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB)? Sources say the tech giant has offered to share more user data if the price is right.    
    • Amazon shares are up 0.8%
    • Facebook shares are down 0.3%
    • Google shares are down 0.3%.    

    Echo Dot tops Amazon's holiday sales season

    • Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) releases broad details about its holiday sales period including the fact that millions more Amazon Devices sold in this year’s period.
    • The lower cost Echo Dot topped Devices in sales and was the best-selling product from any manufacturer on Amazon. 
    • Sales of the Amazon Fire TV Sticks more than doubled on the year. Fire Kids Edition Tablets sold 2.4x as many devices. 
    • Amazon App shopping rose 70% in this holiday season.   
    • Over 4M people started Prime trials (free or paid) in one week.     
    • Previously: Raymond James: Watch Amazon's OTC drug line (Dec. 26)

    Rosenblatt defends Apple on iPhone X sale cut

    • Rosenblatt defends Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) following this morning’s reports of cut iPhone X expectations.
    • Analyst Jun Zhang says the firm’s research doesn’t indicate any further cuts after the holiday season. Rosenblatt thinks the X has had stable sales in North America, a recent acceleration in China, and has outsold the combined 8 and 8 Plus. 
    • Zhang believes the Taiwanese media reports are “referring to previously mentioned iPhone 8/8 Plus production cuts with an iPhone X production ramp in December.”
    • The firm also doesn’t see 3D sensing or OLED panel order cuts.   
    • Apple shares are down 2.2%.  
    • Previously: Apple, suppliers drop on iPhone X sales report (Dec. 26)
    • Previously: Stocks open lower as techs weighed by iPhone sales report (Dec. 26)

  32. /KC popping.

  33. Yodi,

    Nice didn't knew you were playing them too. Never heard of an arm chair trade can you please explain how that works ?



  34. Pat I have written a lot about this type of trade, and gave many entry plays, must ask you where were you all that time?

    Ilene gave this trade a place in members corner.

    In principal you buy the stock and sell a four, to six and 12 month out put/call against the stock.

    You should be comfortable with the stock and the same should pay at least a 3.5% div.

    Put and call sale should be resonable close to the ATM and you should be sure and happy, if the stock should be assigned, you can enter a new trade position.

  35. Yodi

    Is this the arm chair link you are talking about?    


  36. Grass yes this is the place where it all started

  37. Thanks Yodi,

    I have been on and off for a while was busy at work. Appreciate the link Grasshopper

  38. PHIL,

    Is it a better play to short /RB rather than /CL?

  39. /RB/Japar – Hmm, not sure what you mean.   I straight up shorted /RB, I have 3 short at $1.79887 and about to drop them to 2 as they are up almost $2K.  I would short /CL here ($59.91) with a stop over the $60 line but the reason I didn't stop out of /RB, aside from the fact they topped out at $1.8099 is that /CL never went over the $60 line, which was going to be the last straw for me.

  40. FNSR – Now down 5 points from the spike it hit on the AAPL VCSEL announcement less than 3 weeks ago.  Starting to build back a position.  Sold some Jan 2019 20 puts for $3.62.

  41. FNSR/Albo – I like them, they'll be a good add next week, I think.

  42. Phil – Actually, I would like to see it pull back some more but think it may have pulled back too far at this point.

  43. True Albo but ugly chart at the moment:

    Value is certainly there at $20.

    Well indexes tried to make a comeback but that didn't work out.

    Really kind of a nothing day.  I took the money on /RB and now short just 1 /CL at $59.93 as I figure the Libyan thing won't last and there's nothing bullish about this time of year and no OPEC meeting for a while.  

    This is what I love about West Coast time – heading out to the pool and then some lunch!

  44. U.S. Economic Confidence Index Up Slightly

  45. Oil Prices Rise to Two-Year Highs

  46. Bitcoin recoups some losses after its worst week since 2013

  47. Genetic superheroes

  48. How Dollar General Became Rural America’s Store of Choice

  49. While there is another setback for crypto, the Blockchain technology is attracting bigger and bigger companies.    

  50. Yodi, I read many of your trade ideas, coupled with reading the archives on PSW for a few months now, while trying to keep up with the daily news/member comments. Thank you for sharing the information, it is always good to hear how other people are structuring trades.  For what it is worth -- please keep it up, cos in a scary sort of way… i am starting to understand most of the dialogue in this chat room.  I must confess… Nattering Nat still makes my head pound ????  and Jabob is my cooler, although, I am flying to New York to see the ass kissing in person.  ????     

  51. Phil,  /NG are you reloading at this level?     

    You talk a great deal about how they manipulate /CL and /RB and all those FAKE contracts.  Do they (who are they anyways?) manipulate /NG too?  I been watching this commodity closely for nearly a year and it just seems nuts that it is this low going into winter.  thoughts??  

  52. Trucking firms offer up to $8,000 for drivers to ease shortage

  53. Good morning!

    Oil with a nice 0.50 drop, good for $500/contract so let's lock that in at $59.50 but that line can still be played with tight stops above as it's still lagging the fall in /RB.

    Our Futures are flat but Europe has turned red so we may follow.  Still liking /TF short below 1,550 and /YM 24,800 is another good shorting line, lined up with /ES 2,690 and /NQ 6,465.

    Watch DAX 13,000 – it should bounce but, if it fails – very bad sign for all indexes.

    Making America great again:

    /NG/Grass – Of course I reloaded.  I have reloaded all year and will keep reloading all of next year as /NG is way below my $3.50-4 target for 2019.  At the moment it's 2 long at $2.65 (/NGV8).

    Funny how you can make money short /CL and long /NG at the same time!  cheeky

  54. I told you guys this was a winner!

    Energous skies 89% after winning FCC certification

    • Certified by the FCC is the company's WattUp Mid Field transmitter – which allows for wireless charging over a distance.
    • The device can deliver power via radio frequency at a distance of up to three feet.
    • conference call is set for 8:30 ET.
    • WATT +89% premarket

    Submitted on 2017/01/30 at 3:04 pm

    This is another one I would like to keep our eye on in the LTP and, since they are only a $14.59 stock and we can sell the WATT 2019 $12.50 puts for $5.50, let's sell 10 of those ($5,500) and see what happens.

    Submitted on 2017/04/27 at 12:14 pm

    WATT/Learner – I think the rumors that the new iPhone will use wireless charging have been debunked (not that WATT was going to be the provider anyway).  Speculators are bailing.

    Submitted on 2017/09/15 at 12:34 pm

    • WATT – Their system did NOT get used in the new IPhones so down they went.  Still like them at net $7.40.