Archive for 2017

Swing trading portfolio – week of January 16th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.</p></body></html>

 





At Least 20 Killed (6 Children) After Turkish Airlines 747 Crashes Into Kyrgyzstan Residences

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Turkish Airlines Flight 6491, a cargo plane, has crashed into a residential area near the Kyrgyzstan capital of Bishkek, killing at least 20 people and injuring others, according to local authorities say.

The Boeing 747 was flying from Hong Kong to Manas International Airport, which is located just northwest of the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek.

As BNONews.com reports, photos and videos from the scene showed a large fire burning shortly after the crash, and subsequent images after the fire was extinguished showed that multiple buildings were completely destroyed.

At least 15 buildings were affected.

Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Emergency Situations said more than 20 people had been killed in the crash, though it provided no further details. The health ministry had earlier put the death toll at 16, which included 15 people on the ground, of whom 6 are children.

It was not immediately clear how many people were on board the aircraft when it went down, though a Boeing 747 cargo plane typically carries a crew of at least two people. Turkish Airlines did not immediately respond to a request for information.

RT reports that among those killed are three crew members, RIA Novosti news agency reported. One of the crew members survived the crash, the local Emergencies Ministry said, as cited by TASS.

Members of the Kyrgyzstan government, including Vice prime minister Mukhammetkaliy Abulgaziev, are at the scene, according to reports.

All flights to and from Kyrgyzstan’s Manas airport have been suspended until further notice, RIA Novosti reported, citing local sources.





US Military Deploys Nuke-Spotting Radar To Monitor North Korea

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The Sea-based X-Band Radar has deployed out of Pearl Harbor after North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un recently said his country was in the “final stages” of test-launching an intercontinental ballistic missile. Media sources reported that the SBX was being sent about 2,000 miles northwest of Hawaii to watch for a possible North Korean launch in coming months. The Pentagon downplayed the floating radar’s Monday departure.

As The Honolulu Star Advertiser reports, dispatching the “SBX” out to sea sends “a very clear strategic message of deterrence to the ICBM threat of the North Korean leader that has intensified since first announced on Jan. 1,” said Riki Ellison, chairman of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, a Virginia-based nonprofit that advocates a strong U.S. missile defense.

Media sources reported that the SBX was being sent about 2,000 miles northwest of Hawaii to watch for a possible North Korean launch in coming months. The Pentagon downplayed the floating radar’s Monday departure.

“The SBX’s current deployment is not based on any credible threat; however, we cannot discuss specifics for this particular mission while it is underway,” Navy Cmdr. Gary Ross, a Defense Department spokesman, said in an email.

Kim said in a Jan. 1 speech that North Korea was prepping for an ICBM test launch.

“The SBX deployed in the Pacific Ocean enhances and boosts the probability of kill for each of the current 37 and soon to be 44 (ground-based interceptors) in both Alaska and California, if fired at a North Korean ICBM,” Ellison said Thursday in an MDAA release.

If the North Korean test ICBM does not target U.S. or allied territory, the SBX would be in a position “to collect invaluable precision data on the warhead and debris of a North Korean ICBM test-flying in space,” the release said.

Defense Secretary Ash Carter also suggested this week that the United States might just monitor the launch if it didn’t appear to be a threat.

The more than 280-foot-tall SBX is topped by a golf ball-like dome containing a phased array radar and is a hard-to-miss sight at its mooring off Ford Island. The powerful radar, which is only operated at sea, acquires, tracks and discriminates the flight characteristics of ballistic missiles.

TheUnion of Concerned Scientists reported $2.2 billion SBX


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Trump’s Delusion: Halting Eurasian Integration And Saving ‘US World Order’

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Federico Pieraccini via Strategic-Culture.org,

The preceding three parts of this series analyzed the mechanisms that drive great powers.

The most in-depth understanding of the issues concerned the determination of the objectives and logic that accompany the expansion of an empire.

Geopolitical theories, the concrete application of foreign-policy doctrines, and concrete actions that the United States employed to aspire to global dominance were examined.

Finally, the last bit of analysis focused particularly on how Iran, China and Russia have adopted over the years a variety of cultural, economic and military moves to repel the continual assault on their sovereignty by the West with specific attention was given to the American drive for global hegemony and how this has actually accelerated the end of the ‘unipolar moment’, impelling the emergence of a multipolar world order.

In this fourth and final analysis I will focus on a possible strategic shift in the approach to foreign policy from Washington. The most likely hypothesis suggests that Trump intends to attempt to prevent the ongoing integration between Russia, China and Iran.

The failed foreign-policy strategy of the neoconservatives and neoliberals has served to dramatically reduce Washington’s role and influence in the world. Important alliances are being forged without seeking the assent of the United States, and the world model envisioned in the early 1990s – from Bush to Kagan and all the signatories of the PNAC founding statement of principles – is increasingly coming undone. Donald Trump’s victory represents, in all likelihood, the last decisive blow to a series of foreign-policy strategies that in the end undermined the much-prized leadership of the United States. The ceasefire in Syria, reached thanks to an agreement between Turkey and Russia, notably excluded the United States.

The military, media, financial and cultural assault successfully prosecuted over decades by Washington finally seems to have met its Waterloo at the hands of the axis represented by Iran, Russia and China. The recent media successes (RT, Press TV and many alternative media), political resistance (Assad is still president of Syria), diplomatic struggles (negotiations in Syria without Washington as an intermediary) and military planning (Liberation of Aleppo from terrorists) are a result of the efforts of Iran, Russia and China. Their success in all these fields of operations are having


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Davos Elite Eat $40 Hot Dogs While “Struggling For Answers”, Cowering in “Silent Fear”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

For those unfamiliar with what goes on at the annual January boondoggle at the World Economic Forum in Davos, here is the simple breakdown.

Officially, heads of state, captains of industry, prominent academics, philanthropists and a retinue of journalists, celebrities and hangers-on will descend Tuesday on the picturesque alpine village of Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum;

Unofficially, it’s the world’s biggest echo chamber, where wealthy, influential and/or powerful people, yet vastly out of touch with the rest of the world, sit down with other wealthy, influential and/or powerful people who are just as out of touch, to validate to each other that nobody really knows anything (also known as the “ratings agency effect”), but because the press is there and fails to point out that these emperors of industry, commerce, entertainment and politics are naked in hopes of maintaining their annual invitation and direct access, everyone goes home happy. And just as clueless.

Hence Trump.

Case in point, as Reuters fondly recalls, last year, the consensus here was that Trump had no chance of being elected (actually, last January the world’s elites were far more worried about plunging markets as we pointed out in “How Billionaires Are Investing In 2016: “The Only Winning Move Is Not To Play The Game“). 

Trump was elected. His victory, less than half a year after Britain voted to leave the European Union, “was a slap at the principles that elites in Davos have long held dear, from globalization and free trade to multilateralism.”

We’ll get to Trump in a second, but first some more on the background of this festival which revels in everything the populist backlash of 2016 found excerable, courtesy of the NYT.

Who Attends the Conference?

More than 2,500 people will attend this year’s conference from 90 different countries, paying up to $50,000 per person to attend (that of course excludes the ultra-celebrities who get in for free). In fact, so many people are attending, some of the local staff may sleep in shipping containers. Most of the participants are corporate executives, but more than two dozen heads of state and government are expected to attend.  Theresa May, the prime minister of Britain, and Xi Jinping, president of China, are attending the conference for


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Peter Lynch Advice On How To Pick Successful Stocks

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Peter Lynch Advice On How To Pick Successful Stocks  – Not sure we have seen this video before? Check it out below either way and enjoy.

Beating the Street

Legendary money manager Peter Lynch explains his own strategies for investing and offers advice for how to pick stocks and mutual funds to assemble a successful investment portfolio.

Develop a Winning Investment Strategy—with Expert Advice from “The Nation’s #1 Money Manager.” Peter Lynch’s “invest in what you know” strategy has made him a household name with investors both big and small.

An important key to investing, Lynch says, is to remember that stocks are not lottery tickets. There’s a company behind every stock and a reason companies—and their stocks—perform the way they do. In this book, Peter Lynch shows you how you can become an expert in a company and how you can build a profitable investment portfolio, based on your own experience and insights and on straightforward do-it-yourself research.

In Beating the Street, Lynch for the first time explains how to devise a mutual fund strategy, shows his step-by-step strategies for picking stock, and describes how the individual investor can improve his or her investment performance to rival that of the experts.

There’s no reason the individual investor can’t match wits with the experts, and this book will show you how

The post Peter Lynch Advice On How To Pick Successful Stocks appeared first on ValueWalk.

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Brain or Machine? Investing Holy Grail

By Investing Caffeine. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Paul Meehl was a versatile academic who held numerous faculty positions, covering the diverse disciplines of psychology, law, psychiatry, neurology, and yes, even philosophy. The crux of his research was focused on how well clinical analysis fared versus statistical analysis. Or in other words, he looked to answer the controversial question, “What is a better predictor of outcomes, a brain or an equation?” His conclusion was straightforward – mechanical methods using quantitative measures are much more efficient than the professional judgments of humans in coming to more accurate predictions.

Those who have read my book, How I Managed $20,000,000,000.00 by Age 32 know where I stand on this topic – I firmly believe successful investing requires a healthy balance between both art and science (i.e., “brain and equation”). A trader who only relies on intuition and his gut to make all of his/her decisions is likely to fall on their face. On the other hand, a quantitative engineer’s sole dependence on a robotic multi-factor model to make trades is likely to fail too. My skepticism is adequately outlined in my Butter in Bangladesh article, which describes how irrational statistical games can be misleading and overused.

Photo by Eddi van W.

As much as I would like to attribute all of my investment success to my brain, the emotion-controlling power of numbers has played an important role in my investment accomplishments as well. The power of numbers simply cannot be ignored. More than 50 years after Paul Meehl’s seminal research was published, about two hundred studies comparing brain power versus statistical power have shown that machines beat brains in predictive accuracy in the majority of cases. Even when expert judgments have won over formulas, human consistency and reliability have muddied the accuracy of predictions.

Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize winner in Economics, highlights another important decision making researcher, Robyn Dawes. What Dawes discovers in her research is that the fancy and complex multiple regression methods used in conventional software adds little to no value in the predictive decision-making process. Kahneman describes Dawes’s findings more specifically here:

“A formula that combines these predictors with equal weights is likely to be just as accurate in predicting new cases as the multiple-regression formula…Formulas that assign equal weights to all the predictors are often superior,


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Weekly Market Recap Jan 15, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

Bullish action continues as the market alternates between periods of rallying with periods of quiet consolidation.  This past week was a period of the latter.  It was a relatively quiet week other than a bit of a selloff right at the open Thursday.  Friday we saw some of the major U.S. banks report. There were a lot of Federal Reserve speakers trotted out – but markets are in more of a Trump Trance right now so most of it was ignored.  Still no close on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 20K, although that level was tickled Monday.

djia

That said we have seen a rotation from the winners of November & December (S&P 500 + Russell 2000), into areas that lagged a bit (mostly on the NASDAQ) i.e. tech.  That began late the prior week and continues this past week.  Big cap “technology/momentum” stocks saw a return of traders as these names had been ignored in the first 2 months of the rally.  The strong start in the NASDAQ may bode well for the year:

The Nasdaq Composite  has gained 2.76% in its first five trading days of 2017, marking the gauge’s best start to a year since 2006, when it jumped 5.14%.   When the Nasdaq Composite ends a year’s first five sessions with a gain, it has finished the full year in the black 73% of the time, or in 22 out of 30 years.

amzn fb tsla

Fun fact:  The last time the S&P 500 fell more than 1% was back on October 11th when the index dropped 1.24%.  The current 64 trading day streak without a 1%+ decline is the second longest of the current bull market which began in March 2009.

The only major economic report was Friday’s December retail sales:

U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in December, less than had been expected, while holiday sales were up a better-than-expected 4%.   Excluding the large auto sector that accounts for 20% of overall retail business, sales rose a disappointing 0.2% in the final month of the year, the


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Weekly Market Recap Jan 15, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

Bullish action continues as the market alternates between periods of rallying with periods of quiet consolidation.  This past week was a period of the latter.  It was a relatively quiet week other than a bit of a selloff right at the open Thursday.  Friday we saw some of the major U.S. banks report. There were a lot of Federal Reserve speakers trotted out – but markets are in more of a Trump Trance right now so most of it was ignored.  Still no close on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 20K, although that level was tickled Monday.

djia

That said we have seen a rotation from the winners of November & December (S&P 500 + Russell 2000), into areas that lagged a bit (mostly on the NASDAQ) i.e. tech.  That began late the prior week and continues this past week.  Big cap “technology/momentum” stocks saw a return of traders as these names had been ignored in the first 2 months of the rally.  The strong start in the NASDAQ may bode well for the year:

The Nasdaq Composite  has gained 2.76% in its first five trading days of 2017, marking the gauge’s best start to a year since 2006, when it jumped 5.14%.   When the Nasdaq Composite ends a year’s first five sessions with a gain, it has finished the full year in the black 73% of the time, or in 22 out of 30 years.

amzn fb tsla

Fun fact:  The last time the S&P 500 fell more than 1% was back on October 11th when the index dropped 1.24%.  The current 64 trading day streak without a 1%+ decline is the second longest of the current bull market which began in March 2009.

The only major economic report was Friday’s December retail sales:

U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in December, less than had been expected, while holiday sales were up a better-than-expected 4%.   Excluding the large auto sector that accounts for 20% of overall retail business, sales rose a disappointing 0.2% in the final month of the year, the


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Why The Stock Market Has Soared (And We’ll All Soon Know What It’s Like To Be A Madoff Client)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

What is driving the US stock markets to such amazing gains?  While some corporations have seen increases in sales and most have innovated to reduce costs, lessen waste, and maximize efficiency, I’ll focus on some of the other means that have driven profits higher helping to push US equities into record territory.

1- Declining % of profits going to Uncle Sam.

2- Minimal wage growth and holding the line on new hires.

3- Debt fueled stock buybacks and dividends at the expense of investment in mid and long term activities (R&D, cap-ex, exploration, etc.).

To represent the US market as broadly as possible, we’ll use the Wilshire 5000 index, representing all 3600+ publicly traded US corporations (chart below vs. the 10yr Treasury rate).

Corporate Profits

First, profits —Way Up.  The Wilshire 5000 vs. corporate profits (chart below).

But how have corporate after tax profits risen so fast?

Corporate Taxes

Pay less in taxes on rising profits…since 2000, profits have risen in excess of 300% while tax revenues half that.

Of those rising profits, corporations are keeping far more and giving far less to uncle Sam.  Under Eisenhower, 50% of profits went to the Fed’s to a low of 17% by the end of GW Bush’s term.  Perhaps a Republican Congress and Trump will get these tax revenues rescinded entirely???

Wages & Corporate Employees

The #1 cost to business is usually labor, so how about pay the rank and file employees less (chart below)?  Dashed black lines represent old America where workers shared in the growth with growing wages (growing the capacity of the consumer base)…and in the solid black lines, the new America where wage growth has slowed to the lowest levels in US history despite record corporate profits.

But it’s not just paying less, corporations also throttled back on hiring more employees…corporations consistently provided more US employment from 1970 until 2000…since 2000, not so much.  Can’t blame corporations for trying to save their way to prosperity and playing the game as it’s legislated…but an economy without a growing base of consumers is a bit of a problem.

Corporate employment vs. Wilshire 5000…hmmm.

ZIRP = Buybacks and More Cheap Debt

When 2008 hit, private citizens and corporations simply couldn’t / wouldn’t take on any more debt.  So the Federal Reserve made money free to


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Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...



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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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