Archive for 2017

Swing trading portfolio – week of January 16th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

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Swing trading virtual portfolio

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At Least 20 Killed (6 Children) After Turkish Airlines 747 Crashes Into Kyrgyzstan Residences

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Turkish Airlines Flight 6491, a cargo plane, has crashed into a residential area near the Kyrgyzstan capital of Bishkek, killing at least 20 people and injuring others, according to local authorities say.

The Boeing 747 was flying from Hong Kong to Manas International Airport, which is located just northwest of the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek.

As BNONews.com reports, photos and videos from the scene showed a large fire burning shortly after the crash, and subsequent images after the fire was extinguished showed that multiple buildings were completely destroyed.

At least 15 buildings were affected.

Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Emergency Situations said more than 20 people had been killed in the crash, though it provided no further details. The health ministry had earlier put the death toll at 16, which included 15 people on the ground, of whom 6 are children.

It was not immediately clear how many people were on board the aircraft when it went down, though a Boeing 747 cargo plane typically carries a crew of at least two people. Turkish Airlines did not immediately respond to a request for information.

RT reports that among those killed are three crew members, RIA Novosti news agency reported. One of the crew members survived the crash, the local Emergencies Ministry said, as cited by TASS.

Members of the Kyrgyzstan government, including Vice prime minister Mukhammetkaliy Abulgaziev, are at the scene, according to reports.

All flights to and from Kyrgyzstan’s Manas airport have been suspended until further notice, RIA Novosti reported, citing local sources.





US Military Deploys Nuke-Spotting Radar To Monitor North Korea

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The Sea-based X-Band Radar has deployed out of Pearl Harbor after North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un recently said his country was in the “final stages” of test-launching an intercontinental ballistic missile. Media sources reported that the SBX was being sent about 2,000 miles northwest of Hawaii to watch for a possible North Korean launch in coming months. The Pentagon downplayed the floating radar’s Monday departure.

As The Honolulu Star Advertiser reports, dispatching the “SBX” out to sea sends “a very clear strategic message of deterrence to the ICBM threat of the North Korean leader that has intensified since first announced on Jan. 1,” said Riki Ellison, chairman of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, a Virginia-based nonprofit that advocates a strong U.S. missile defense.

Media sources reported that the SBX was being sent about 2,000 miles northwest of Hawaii to watch for a possible North Korean launch in coming months. The Pentagon downplayed the floating radar’s Monday departure.

“The SBX’s current deployment is not based on any credible threat; however, we cannot discuss specifics for this particular mission while it is underway,” Navy Cmdr. Gary Ross, a Defense Department spokesman, said in an email.

Kim said in a Jan. 1 speech that North Korea was prepping for an ICBM test launch.

“The SBX deployed in the Pacific Ocean enhances and boosts the probability of kill for each of the current 37 and soon to be 44 (ground-based interceptors) in both Alaska and California, if fired at a North Korean ICBM,” Ellison said Thursday in an MDAA release.

If the North Korean test ICBM does not target U.S. or allied territory, the SBX would be in a position “to collect invaluable precision data on the warhead and debris of a North Korean ICBM test-flying in space,” the release said.

Defense Secretary Ash Carter also suggested this week that the United States might just monitor the launch if it didn’t appear to be a threat.

The more than 280-foot-tall SBX is topped by a golf ball-like dome containing a phased array radar and is a hard-to-miss sight at its mooring off Ford Island. The powerful radar, which is only operated at sea, acquires, tracks and discriminates the flight characteristics of ballistic missiles.

TheUnion of Concerned Scientists reported $2.2 billion SBX


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Trump’s Delusion: Halting Eurasian Integration And Saving ‘US World Order’

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Federico Pieraccini via Strategic-Culture.org,

The preceding three parts of this series analyzed the mechanisms that drive great powers.

The most in-depth understanding of the issues concerned the determination of the objectives and logic that accompany the expansion of an empire.

Geopolitical theories, the concrete application of foreign-policy doctrines, and concrete actions that the United States employed to aspire to global dominance were examined.

Finally, the last bit of analysis focused particularly on how Iran, China and Russia have adopted over the years a variety of cultural, economic and military moves to repel the continual assault on their sovereignty by the West with specific attention was given to the American drive for global hegemony and how this has actually accelerated the end of the ‘unipolar moment’, impelling the emergence of a multipolar world order.

In this fourth and final analysis I will focus on a possible strategic shift in the approach to foreign policy from Washington. The most likely hypothesis suggests that Trump intends to attempt to prevent the ongoing integration between Russia, China and Iran.

The failed foreign-policy strategy of the neoconservatives and neoliberals has served to dramatically reduce Washington’s role and influence in the world. Important alliances are being forged without seeking the assent of the United States, and the world model envisioned in the early 1990s – from Bush to Kagan and all the signatories of the PNAC founding statement of principles – is increasingly coming undone. Donald Trump’s victory represents, in all likelihood, the last decisive blow to a series of foreign-policy strategies that in the end undermined the much-prized leadership of the United States. The ceasefire in Syria, reached thanks to an agreement between Turkey and Russia, notably excluded the United States.

The military, media, financial and cultural assault successfully prosecuted over decades by Washington finally seems to have met its Waterloo at the hands of the axis represented by Iran, Russia and China. The recent media successes (RT, Press TV and many alternative media), political resistance (Assad is still president of Syria), diplomatic struggles (negotiations in Syria without Washington as an intermediary) and military planning (Liberation of Aleppo from terrorists) are a result of the efforts of Iran, Russia and China. Their success in all these fields of operations are having


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Davos Elite Eat $40 Hot Dogs While “Struggling For Answers”, Cowering in “Silent Fear”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

For those unfamiliar with what goes on at the annual January boondoggle at the World Economic Forum in Davos, here is the simple breakdown.

Officially, heads of state, captains of industry, prominent academics, philanthropists and a retinue of journalists, celebrities and hangers-on will descend Tuesday on the picturesque alpine village of Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum;

Unofficially, it’s the world’s biggest echo chamber, where wealthy, influential and/or powerful people, yet vastly out of touch with the rest of the world, sit down with other wealthy, influential and/or powerful people who are just as out of touch, to validate to each other that nobody really knows anything (also known as the “ratings agency effect”), but because the press is there and fails to point out that these emperors of industry, commerce, entertainment and politics are naked in hopes of maintaining their annual invitation and direct access, everyone goes home happy. And just as clueless.

Hence Trump.

Case in point, as Reuters fondly recalls, last year, the consensus here was that Trump had no chance of being elected (actually, last January the world’s elites were far more worried about plunging markets as we pointed out in “How Billionaires Are Investing In 2016: “The Only Winning Move Is Not To Play The Game“). 

Trump was elected. His victory, less than half a year after Britain voted to leave the European Union, “was a slap at the principles that elites in Davos have long held dear, from globalization and free trade to multilateralism.”

We’ll get to Trump in a second, but first some more on the background of this festival which revels in everything the populist backlash of 2016 found excerable, courtesy of the NYT.

Who Attends the Conference?

More than 2,500 people will attend this year’s conference from 90 different countries, paying up to $50,000 per person to attend (that of course excludes the ultra-celebrities who get in for free). In fact, so many people are attending, some of the local staff may sleep in shipping containers. Most of the participants are corporate executives, but more than two dozen heads of state and government are expected to attend.  Theresa May, the prime minister of Britain, and Xi Jinping, president of China, are attending the conference for


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Peter Lynch Advice On How To Pick Successful Stocks

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Peter Lynch Advice On How To Pick Successful Stocks  – Not sure we have seen this video before? Check it out below either way and enjoy.

Beating the Street

Legendary money manager Peter Lynch explains his own strategies for investing and offers advice for how to pick stocks and mutual funds to assemble a successful investment portfolio.

Develop a Winning Investment Strategy—with Expert Advice from “The Nation’s #1 Money Manager.” Peter Lynch’s “invest in what you know” strategy has made him a household name with investors both big and small.

An important key to investing, Lynch says, is to remember that stocks are not lottery tickets. There’s a company behind every stock and a reason companies—and their stocks—perform the way they do. In this book, Peter Lynch shows you how you can become an expert in a company and how you can build a profitable investment portfolio, based on your own experience and insights and on straightforward do-it-yourself research.

In Beating the Street, Lynch for the first time explains how to devise a mutual fund strategy, shows his step-by-step strategies for picking stock, and describes how the individual investor can improve his or her investment performance to rival that of the experts.

There’s no reason the individual investor can’t match wits with the experts, and this book will show you how

The post Peter Lynch Advice On How To Pick Successful Stocks appeared first on ValueWalk.

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Brain or Machine? Investing Holy Grail

By Investing Caffeine. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Paul Meehl was a versatile academic who held numerous faculty positions, covering the diverse disciplines of psychology, law, psychiatry, neurology, and yes, even philosophy. The crux of his research was focused on how well clinical analysis fared versus statistical analysis. Or in other words, he looked to answer the controversial question, “What is a better predictor of outcomes, a brain or an equation?” His conclusion was straightforward – mechanical methods using quantitative measures are much more efficient than the professional judgments of humans in coming to more accurate predictions.

Those who have read my book, How I Managed $20,000,000,000.00 by Age 32 know where I stand on this topic – I firmly believe successful investing requires a healthy balance between both art and science (i.e., “brain and equation”). A trader who only relies on intuition and his gut to make all of his/her decisions is likely to fall on their face. On the other hand, a quantitative engineer’s sole dependence on a robotic multi-factor model to make trades is likely to fail too. My skepticism is adequately outlined in my Butter in Bangladesh article, which describes how irrational statistical games can be misleading and overused.

Photo by Eddi van W.

As much as I would like to attribute all of my investment success to my brain, the emotion-controlling power of numbers has played an important role in my investment accomplishments as well. The power of numbers simply cannot be ignored. More than 50 years after Paul Meehl’s seminal research was published, about two hundred studies comparing brain power versus statistical power have shown that machines beat brains in predictive accuracy in the majority of cases. Even when expert judgments have won over formulas, human consistency and reliability have muddied the accuracy of predictions.

Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize winner in Economics, highlights another important decision making researcher, Robyn Dawes. What Dawes discovers in her research is that the fancy and complex multiple regression methods used in conventional software adds little to no value in the predictive decision-making process. Kahneman describes Dawes’s findings more specifically here:

“A formula that combines these predictors with equal weights is likely to be just as accurate in predicting new cases as the multiple-regression formula…Formulas that assign equal weights to all the predictors are often superior,


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Weekly Market Recap Jan 15, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

Bullish action continues as the market alternates between periods of rallying with periods of quiet consolidation.  This past week was a period of the latter.  It was a relatively quiet week other than a bit of a selloff right at the open Thursday.  Friday we saw some of the major U.S. banks report. There were a lot of Federal Reserve speakers trotted out – but markets are in more of a Trump Trance right now so most of it was ignored.  Still no close on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 20K, although that level was tickled Monday.

djia

That said we have seen a rotation from the winners of November & December (S&P 500 + Russell 2000), into areas that lagged a bit (mostly on the NASDAQ) i.e. tech.  That began late the prior week and continues this past week.  Big cap “technology/momentum” stocks saw a return of traders as these names had been ignored in the first 2 months of the rally.  The strong start in the NASDAQ may bode well for the year:

The Nasdaq Composite  has gained 2.76% in its first five trading days of 2017, marking the gauge’s best start to a year since 2006, when it jumped 5.14%.   When the Nasdaq Composite ends a year’s first five sessions with a gain, it has finished the full year in the black 73% of the time, or in 22 out of 30 years.

amzn fb tsla

Fun fact:  The last time the S&P 500 fell more than 1% was back on October 11th when the index dropped 1.24%.  The current 64 trading day streak without a 1%+ decline is the second longest of the current bull market which began in March 2009.

The only major economic report was Friday’s December retail sales:

U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in December, less than had been expected, while holiday sales were up a better-than-expected 4%.   Excluding the large auto sector that accounts for 20% of overall retail business, sales rose a disappointing 0.2% in the final month of the year, the


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Weekly Market Recap Jan 15, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

Bullish action continues as the market alternates between periods of rallying with periods of quiet consolidation.  This past week was a period of the latter.  It was a relatively quiet week other than a bit of a selloff right at the open Thursday.  Friday we saw some of the major U.S. banks report. There were a lot of Federal Reserve speakers trotted out – but markets are in more of a Trump Trance right now so most of it was ignored.  Still no close on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 20K, although that level was tickled Monday.

djia

That said we have seen a rotation from the winners of November & December (S&P 500 + Russell 2000), into areas that lagged a bit (mostly on the NASDAQ) i.e. tech.  That began late the prior week and continues this past week.  Big cap “technology/momentum” stocks saw a return of traders as these names had been ignored in the first 2 months of the rally.  The strong start in the NASDAQ may bode well for the year:

The Nasdaq Composite  has gained 2.76% in its first five trading days of 2017, marking the gauge’s best start to a year since 2006, when it jumped 5.14%.   When the Nasdaq Composite ends a year’s first five sessions with a gain, it has finished the full year in the black 73% of the time, or in 22 out of 30 years.

amzn fb tsla

Fun fact:  The last time the S&P 500 fell more than 1% was back on October 11th when the index dropped 1.24%.  The current 64 trading day streak without a 1%+ decline is the second longest of the current bull market which began in March 2009.

The only major economic report was Friday’s December retail sales:

U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in December, less than had been expected, while holiday sales were up a better-than-expected 4%.   Excluding the large auto sector that accounts for 20% of overall retail business, sales rose a disappointing 0.2% in the final month of the year, the


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Why The Stock Market Has Soared (And We’ll All Soon Know What It’s Like To Be A Madoff Client)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

What is driving the US stock markets to such amazing gains?  While some corporations have seen increases in sales and most have innovated to reduce costs, lessen waste, and maximize efficiency, I’ll focus on some of the other means that have driven profits higher helping to push US equities into record territory.

1- Declining % of profits going to Uncle Sam.

2- Minimal wage growth and holding the line on new hires.

3- Debt fueled stock buybacks and dividends at the expense of investment in mid and long term activities (R&D, cap-ex, exploration, etc.).

To represent the US market as broadly as possible, we’ll use the Wilshire 5000 index, representing all 3600+ publicly traded US corporations (chart below vs. the 10yr Treasury rate).

Corporate Profits

First, profits —Way Up.  The Wilshire 5000 vs. corporate profits (chart below).

But how have corporate after tax profits risen so fast?

Corporate Taxes

Pay less in taxes on rising profits…since 2000, profits have risen in excess of 300% while tax revenues half that.

Of those rising profits, corporations are keeping far more and giving far less to uncle Sam.  Under Eisenhower, 50% of profits went to the Fed’s to a low of 17% by the end of GW Bush’s term.  Perhaps a Republican Congress and Trump will get these tax revenues rescinded entirely???

Wages & Corporate Employees

The #1 cost to business is usually labor, so how about pay the rank and file employees less (chart below)?  Dashed black lines represent old America where workers shared in the growth with growing wages (growing the capacity of the consumer base)…and in the solid black lines, the new America where wage growth has slowed to the lowest levels in US history despite record corporate profits.

But it’s not just paying less, corporations also throttled back on hiring more employees…corporations consistently provided more US employment from 1970 until 2000…since 2000, not so much.  Can’t blame corporations for trying to save their way to prosperity and playing the game as it’s legislated…but an economy without a growing base of consumers is a bit of a problem.

Corporate employment vs. Wilshire 5000…hmmm.

ZIRP = Buybacks and More Cheap Debt

When 2008 hit, private citizens and corporations simply couldn’t / wouldn’t take on any more debt.  So the Federal Reserve made money free to


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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.

By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS, although on many months the (balance sheet) B/S does not actually shrink by this full amount which depends on the redemption schedule) and by end-Q4 markets also experienced some of the largest volatility and drawdowns in nearly a decade.

As Nomura&...



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ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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