Archive for 2017

The Bull And Bear Cases For Hudson Pacific Properties

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The Bull And Bear Cases For Hudson Pacific Properties

Hudson Pacific Properties Inc (NYSE: HPP) reported in-line earnings results Nov. 2 and the stock has rallied around 5 percent since the event.

The Analyst

Goldman Sachs’ Andrew Rosivach downgraded Hudson Pacific Properties from Buy to Hold and reduced the price target from $39 to $36.50.

The Thesis

The stock is fairly valued given the slowdown in West Coast office employment growth and significant near-term leasing risk, Rosivach said in a Monday note. (See Rosivach’s track record here.) 

Goldman Sachs’ 2018 FFO per-share expectations are 4 percent below consensus, mainly due to the end of the Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) lease at Campus Center in Milpitas, California, the analyst said. 

In the bull case scenario, Rosivach said he sees a possibility for stronger-than-expected releasing activity with higher spreads and/or higher releasing volumes. On the other hand, a bear case scenario is likely in the event of more significant macro deterioration leading to lower-than-expected occupancy and releasing spreads, the analyst said. 

The Price Action

The stock opened the trading session 2.82 percent lower Monday, but spiked immediately and it is currently trading 0.1 percent higher.

Related Links:

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Latest Ratings for HPP

Date Firm Action From To
Nov 2017 Goldman Sachs Downgrades Buy Neutral
Aug 2017 Barclays Maintains Overweight
Mar 2017 Mizuho Downgrades Buy Neutral

View More Analyst Ratings for HPP

View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Andrew Rosivach CiscoAnalyst Color REIT Downgrades Price Target Analyst Ratings Real Estate Best of Benzinga

2 Reasons First Data Was Just Upgraded By BMO Capital

Courtesy of Benzinga.

2 Reasons First Data Was Just Upgraded By BMO Capital

Shares of First Data Corp (NYSE: FDC) have pulled back since its third quarter earnings report, which prompted some analysts to become more constructive on the stock.

The Analyst

BMO Capital Markets’ Paulo Ribeiro upgraded First Data’s stock from Market Perform to Outperform with a price target raised from $19 to $21.50.

The Thesis

First Data’s stock has lost around 12 percent since its third quarter results and is now “attractive,” Ribeiro said in a Sunday upgrade note. The bullish case for owning First Data’s stocks is twofold, the analyst said:

  • A more visible path for global business solutions to reach industry level growth levels.
  • A higher valuation from improved net operating losses moving forward on normalized GAAP tax rate.

First, the GBS North American segment represents 44 percent of the entire company’s revenue and there is a “credible path” to achieve a mid-single digits growth rate in fiscal 2019, Ribeiro said. That path is a recovery in JV and SMB channels, and a high-teens growth rate contribution from the recently created integrated payments channel, he said. 

Second, the analyst’s valuation of the fintech company on an EV/EBITDA basis now values the company’s net operating loss carry-forwards, or NOLs, at $1.25 per share, which marks an increase from 50 cents.

The improved valuation is mostly due to expectations that the reversal of valuation allowances will take place sooner than expected, according to BMO. First Data has yet to record any federal book taxes in the U.S., and the deferred tax asset could be used to offset any pretax income, likely through fiscal 2020, Ribeiro said. 

Price Action

Shares of First Data have gained 18 percent since the start of 2017 and are up 4.6 percent since the company’s 2015 IPO.

Related Links:

From Visa To PayPal: Which Payment Sector Stocks Will Pay Off?

Credit Suisse Adjusts Its Top Picks List In A Record-Breaking Market

Latest Ratings for FDC

Date Firm Action From To
Nov 2017 BMO Capital Upgrades Market Perform Outperform
Nov 2017 Nomura Maintains Neutral
Oct 2017 Wedbush Upgrades Neutral Outperform

View More Analyst Ratings for FDC

View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: BMO Capital First Data Paul RibeiroAnalyst Color Upgrades Price Target Analyst Ratings Best of Benzinga

Earnings Scheduled For November 20, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Earnings Scheduled For November 20, 2017

Companies Reporting Before The Bell

  • Bitauto Hldg Ltd (ADR) (NYSE: BITA) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.29 per share on revenue of $335.93 million.
  • Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (NASDAQ: SBLK) is estimated to report a quarterly loss at $0.04 per share on revenue of $66.32 million.
  • Northern Technologies International Corp (NASDAQ: NTIC) is projected to report earnings for its fourth quarter.
  • Micronet Enertec Technologies Inc (NASDAQ: MICT) is expected to report earnings for its third quarter.
  • UTStarcom Holdings Corp (NASDAQ: UTSI) is estimated to report earnings for its third quarter.

Companies Reporting After The Bell

  • Agilent Technologies Inc (NYSE: A) is projected to post quarterly earnings at $0.62 per share on revenue of $1.17 billion.
  • Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) is expected to post quarterly earnings at $0.05 per share on revenue of $855.22 million.
  • Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc. (NASDAQ: BECN) is projected to post quarterly earnings at $0.94 per share on revenue of $1.26 billion.
  • Palo Alto Networks Inc (NYSE: PANW) is estimated to post quarterly earnings at $0.69 per share on revenue of $489.27 million.
  • Urban Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) is expected to post quarterly earnings at $0.33 per share on revenue of $859.95 million.
  • Vipshop Holdings Ltd – ADR (NYSE: VIPS) is projected to post quarterly earnings at $0.14 per share on revenue of $2.28 billion.
  • Cubic Corporation (NYSE: CUB) is expected to post quarterly earnings at $0.26 per share on revenue of $435.68 million.
  • Tarena International Inc(ADR) (NASDAQ: TEDU) is estimated to post quarterly earnings at $0.32 per share on revenue of $84.56 million.
  • Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: ENTA) is expected to post quarterly earnings at $2.13 per share on revenue of $73.12 million.
  • Amtech Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASYS) is projected to post quarterly earnings at $0.09 per share on revenue of $46.88 million.
  • ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ADR) (NYSE: ZTO) is expected to post quarterly earnings at $0.15 per share on revenue of $454.28 million.

Posted-In: Earnings scheduleEarnings News Pre-Market Outlook Markets

Is Financial Argmageddon Bullish For Stocks? One Bank’s Surprising Answer

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Everyone knows that after nearly a decade of capital markets central planning by the world's central banks, "good news is bad news." But did you also know that financial armageddon has become the most bullish catalyst to buy stocks? That's the understated take-home message from the year ahead preview by Macquarie's Viktor Shvets published last week. It is also the conclusion that One River Asset Management's Eric Peters reached in his latest weekend notes.

While we will have much more to comment on Macquarie's rather macabre 2018 preview, which is arguably one of the most honest, comprehensive, and objective predictions of what to expected from the "central bank/market confidence boosting nexus", we will highlight the one argument that has served to promote countless BTFD algo-driven stock rips, summarized in the following blurb, which is a sublime explanation by Viktor Shvets the worst things are, the more you should buy:

If volatilities jump, CBs would need to reset the ‘background picture’. The challenge is that even with the best of intentions, the process is far from automatic, and hence there could be months of extended volatility (a la Dec’15-Feb’16). If one ignores shorter-term aberrations, we maintain that there is no alternative to policies that have been pursued since 1980s of deliberately suppressing and managing business and capital market cycles. [T]his implies that a relatively pleasant ‘Kondratieff autumn’ (characterized by inability to raise cost of capital against a background of constrained but positive growth and inflation rates) is likely to endure. Indeed, two generations of investors grew up knowing nothing else. They have never experienced either scorching summers or freezing winters, as public sector refused to allow debt repudiation, deleveraging or clearance of excesses. Although this cannot last forever, there is no reason to believe that the end of the road would necessarily occur in 2018 or 2019. It is true that policy risks are more heightened but so is policy recognition of dangers.

We therefore remain constructive on financial assets (as we have been for quite some time), not because we believe in a sustainable and private sector-led recovery but rather because we do not believe in one, and thus we do not see any viable alternatives to an ongoing financialization, which needs to be facilitated through excess

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Weekly Market Recap Nov 19, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Monday, Tuesday, and Friday saw the now usual “no volatility” days – while bears finally saw some action on Wednesday, bulls came right back Thursday with even bigger gains.  So while we have been cautious on the market for 3 weeks now all that has meant is consolidation in the market (granted the Russell 2000 has taken some hits).  For the week the S&P 500 fell 0.3% while the NASDAQ gained 0.5%. Economic news was light (we cover retail sales below), and earnings are coming to their tail end so we are in a bit of a news vacuum as negotiations about the tax reform bills will take the reigns.

Retail sales slowed in October, rising only 0.2%, after a sharp gain in the prior month.

Sales rose a revised 1.9% in September, up from the prior estimate of a 1.6% gain, boosted by post-hurricane spending. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.1% after a 1.2% gain in September. Economists were expecting a 0.2% gain. Sales excluding autos and gasoline climbed 0.3% after being up 0.6% in the prior month.

The housing sector has been incredibly strong in this leg of the rally.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 .. via Jill Mislinski.

Thanksgiving is usually a feel good week in the market, as shown by Bespoke.

Since 1945, the S&P 500 has seen an average gain of 0.64% during Thanksgiving week, and in years where the S&P 500 was already up over 10% YTD, Thanksgiving week was even stronger with an average gain of 0.76%.  Under both scenarios, the S&P 500 has also been in the black during this period 75% of the time. 

The week ahead…

Cluck Cluck! Janet Yellen has a speech Tuesday, and minutes from the prior Federal Reserve meeting will be released Wednesday.  Markets will be closed Thursday and only open part of the day Friday.   Items such as durable goods and existing home sales will be released, but most people on Wall Street will be too busy shopping on Amazon and making Jeff…
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Russell 2000 Makes It Back to ‘Bull Flag’ Resistance Leaving ‘Bear Trap’ Behind

Courtesy of Declan

Over the course of Thursday and Friday the Russell 2000 reversed what had looked like a runaway breakdown into a counter rally and potential breakout. Now it's the time for shorts, FOMO longs and existing longs to pressure resistance. Action over the last two days of the week was particularly tasty particularly if you are looking for an extension of the August-October rally. Better still, there isn't a whole lot of competition from other indices for trading opportunities. Long risk measured from a stop below 1,454.

The S&P is up against channel resistance as Friday's action held to the upper range of Thursday's intraday spread. The index will have an opportunity to confirm the 'bear trap' on Monday as any gain will push it above channel resistance. Technicals are mixed with the MACD trigger 'sell' competing with a strong – if fading – On-Balance-Volume accumulation trend.  There is also a significant relative performance loss against Small Caps. 

The Nasdaq is caught in the middle. Good relative performance, decent technicals but trading neither at support nor resistance. The prior trend suggests this will make it to channel resistance so longs have little reason to sell.

Tech breadth is attempting a swing low but not from an oversold position.  However a rally from here has plenty of room for upside before it becomes overbought.

For Monday, look to the Russell 2000 to break resistance and perhaps for the S&P too.

The Difference Between GAAP And Non-GAAP Q3 EPS For The Dow Jones Was 16%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The last time we looked at the near-record difference between GAAP and non-GAAP Dow Jones earnings, we found that it had crept to a (virtually) unprecedented 25%. To be sure, that was exactly one year ago, when the economy was perceived as being in worse shape than it is now, thanks to the narrative of a "global coordinated recovery" which is really just record central bank liquidity injections, and Chinese credit creation, both of which have recently hit the brakes.

That said, going back to the question of GAAP vs non-GAAP divergence, one would assume that in light of the so-called global recovery of 2017, company earnings would be more real and not the "pro forma, one-time, non-recurring" fabrication that US corporations are so fond of. Alas, one would be wrong.

As Factset's John Butters writes in a recent blog post, as of today, all of the companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) have reported actual EPS for Q3 2017, which brings up several questions: what percentage of these companies reported non-GAAP EPS for Q3 2017? What was the average difference and median difference between non-GAAP EPS and GAAP EPS for companies in the DJIA for Q3 2017? How did these differences compare to recent quarters?

Here are the answers:

For Q3 2017, 21 (or 70%) of the 30 companies in the DJIA reported non-GAAP EPS in addition to GAAP EPS for the third quarter. Of these 21 companies, 16 (or 76%) reported non-GAAP EPS that exceeded GAAP EPS. Over the past six quarters (Q1 2016 – Q2 2017) 68% of the companies in the DJIA reported non-GAAP EPS in addition to GAAP EPS and 80% of these companies reported non-GAAP EPS that exceeded GAAP EPS.

Thus, slightly more companies in the DJIA reported non-GAAP EPS in Q3 2017 relative to the average of the past six quarters, while slightly fewer companies in the DJIA reported non-GAAP EPS above GAAP EPS in Q3 2017 relative to the average over the past six quarters.

For Q3 2017, the average difference between non-GAAP EPS and GAAP EPS for all 21 companies was 284.1%, while the median difference between non-GAAP EPS

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“Worst Case Scenario” Looms As Merkel’s “Jamaica Coalition” Collapses; EUR Sinks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

We warned on Friday that German Chancellor Angela Merkel faced a 'night of the long knives' in her efforts to bring together the co-called 'Jamaica' coalition of four parties and after a desperate weekend of talks, Bloomberg reports Merkel's efforts at forming a coalition have failed meaning a second election looms and sending the euro sliding.

As Bloomberg reports, talks on forming German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s next government collapsed, throwing the future of Europe’s longest-serving leader into doubt and potentially pointing the world’s fourth-biggest economy toward new elections.

After a 12-hour negotiating session that ended shortly before midnight Sunday, the Free Democratic Party walked out of the exploratory talks, saying the differences with the Green party were too great to bridge.

Merkel has sought for four weeks to enlist the two smaller parties for her fourth-term coalition.

“It’s better not to govern than to govern badly,” FDP head Christian Lindner told reporters in Berlin.

No further coalition talks were scheduled, he said. There was no immediate comment from Merkel.

EURUSD is down aropund 40 pips on the news…

As MINT Partners' Bill Blain noted previously, Germans are not used to multiple elections – and a second vote early next year would be massive negative for Merkel herself – she may even have to stand down if coalition looks like falling. That could be massive shock.

As a result, the prospects for more volatile European peripheral markets, particularly Greece and Italy, are likely to be exacerbated, and we might well see some of the currency and European stock market froth blow away in coming days as the scale of the “German Problem” becomes clearer.

  • My worst case Germany scenario is a second election early next year, political uncertainty as Mutti Merkel finds herself squeezed out, and a scramble to build a new coalition government in her aftermath.
  • The best case scenario isn’t much better: that Merkel manages to forge a new coalition, but it will be a long drawn out affair and the resulting administration will be vulnerable, weak and fraxious.

These sound like German problems, but they mean

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Israel Gives Official Confirmation Of Covert Ties With Saudi Arabia

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Yet more confirmation emerged today regarding the recently established relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which is being defined by a shared desire to see Iranian influence and expansion rolled back in the Middle East. For the first time a high level Israeli government official has formally acknowledged the increased ties between the two countries which have historically been bitter enemies, and which have never had official diplomatic relations. 

The historic news, which is worrisome for the fact that it could bring the region closer to major war as the newfound "allies" eye the Iranian proxy Hezbollah, follows the leak of an Israeli diplomatic cable sent to all Israeli embassies throughout the world which revealed Israeli and Saudi behind the scenes coordination. The cable gave instructions to Israeli diplomats to express support for the Saudi war against Shia forces in Yemen and also urged embassies to aggressively lobby their host governments to take steps toward pushing Hezbollah out of Lebanon.

Image result for israel saudi ties

And today the Times of Israel reports the following Reuters story under the bombshell headline, Israel Has Secret Contacts With Saudi Arabia, Senior Minister Reveals:

Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz said on Sunday that Israel has had covert contacts with Saudi Arabia amid common concerns over Iran, a first disclosure by a senior Israeli official of such contacts. In an interview on Army Radio, Steinitz was asked why Israel was hiding its ties with Saudi Arabia, which does not have diplomatic ties with Israel.

And in response Steinitz replied in the affirmative, explaining that:

"We have ties that are indeed partly covert with many Muslim and Arab countries, and usually (we are) the party that is not ashamed. It’s the other side that is interested in keeping the ties quiet. With us, usually, there is no problem, but we respect the other side’s wish, when ties are developing, whether it’s with Saudi Arabia or with other Arab countries or other Muslim countries, and there is much more … (but) we keep it secret.”

The official confirmation follows closely on the heels of an unprecedented interview that Israel Defense Force (IDF) chief-of-staff

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“Our Flag Is Very Special” – NFL Superstar Herschel Walker Blames NFL Commissioner For Crisis

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Former NFL susperstar Herschel Walker – who aggressively praised America’s military heroes and first responders – slams NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell for not quelling the national anthem protests.

NYPost's John Aidan Byrne reports that the Heisman Trophy winner doesn’t beat around the bush:

“Guys, let me tell you this,” he said. 

“Our flag is very special, and black lives matter, but what we should do is go to Washington after the season and protest there instead. We have young men and women fighting for the flag. And we have to respect the White House.”

Walker – who used to play for President Trump’s short-lived USFL New Jersey Generals in the ’80s…

Was not done…

“I absolutely think the protests are so upsetting, and I blame the commissioner,” he said.

“I know people are going to be angry when I say it, but he should have stopped the protests at the very beginning.”

All of this comes after a week of turmoil between Goodell and the owners amid a continued slide in ratings.


Zero Hedge

Will The US Slap Sanctions On Nord Stream 2?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Nick Cunningham via,

There is a growing push in the U.S. Congress to slap sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

The pipeline under construction would carry Russian natural gas to Germany, and has been a lightning rod of controversy both in Europe and across the Atlantic. Many governments and officials from Eastern Europe fear deeper dependence on Russia for gas supplies, a sentiment echoed by the U.S. government. Meanwhile, many in Western Europe are less concerned,...

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Phil's Favorites

US is already fighting a conflict with Iran - an economic war that is hurting the wrong people


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US is already fighting a conflict with Iran – an economic war that is hurting the wrong people

Courtesy of David Cortright, University of Notre Dame

Many are worried about the risk of war with Iran after the Trump administration leaked discussions of a troop deployment in response to claimed threats to U.S. warships in the region.

And in r...

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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ... more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...

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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!

Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!

Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


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More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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