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Take It Back Tuesday – Breakdown, What Breakdown?

Well, we know Monday's are meaningless. 

In fact, next Monday is my last official Monday before I retire, at 55, from Mondays.  In five more years I will retire from Fridays too but, for now, I'll just be skipping Mondays – officially, though I'll still write a morning Report and pop in on chat – I'm just not going to commit to being around on Mondays so I can put a bit more time into PSW Investments, our Hedge Fund (Capital Ideas) and, of course, me.  

The only call I made during our Live Member Chat Room yesterday was my 10:14 comment to our Members, saying:

What craziness with FB, down 5.4% now.  /NQ holding 6,950 so far and we're still miles off the lows so it's really not very weak, considering.  More important to watch the S&P around 2,750 as that's the 50 dma it failed and NYSE is falling further away from 13,000 and even below the Must Hold at 12,800 so – NOT GOOD there.  

The Nas still has a very long way to go to catch up to the others on the downside and, since this news has a sweeping effect on many Nas companies and since analysts will only this week begin downgrading based on data concerns – /NQ is still my favorite short below 6,950 with tight stops or 6,975 or back at 7,000 but I can't see that happening.

Those kinds of calls, I will ALWAYS show up for!  What a great way to start the week.  At 1:50, we began playing for the bounces, though it was a rocky road for the first hour:

Looks like we found a bit of support at 24,500, 2,700, 6,825 and 1,555.

Bounce from 25,000 to 24,500 is 100 points to 24,600 (weak) and 24,700 (strong)

Bounce from 2,760 to 2,700 is 12 so 2,712 is weak and 2,724 is strong

Bounce from 7,100 to 6,850 is 30 points but we know /NQ likes the 25s so I'd want to see 6,875 (weak) and 6,900 (strong) 

Bounce from 1,600 to 1,550 is 10 so 1,560 (weak) and 1,570 (strong).

This morning, we're just over all the strong bounce lines – as predicted by our fabulous 5% Rule™ but what matters is whether or not those lines hold today – that will tell us whether yesterday's Facebook-led meltdown was a one-time event or the beginning of the end for the tech rally.   Keep in mind the Nasdaq had been falling for a week, down from a high of 7,200 on Friday, the 13th.

6,840 completes the 5% fall on the Nasdaq from 7,200 and that's 360 point so we expect 72-point bounces but we'll round 6,840 to 6,850 and round the bounces up to 75 and look for 6,925 as a weak bounce before we're impressed with the Nasdaq's recovery and we're not back on track until we see the strong bounce line at 7,000 taken back. 

Failing 6,925 will be a very bad sign today and likely means we're heading back to the 6,500 line, which would give us gains of $8,000 per contract from 6,900 so that's a play worth making with tight stops above or, better yet, you can use the 6,925 line as we're at 6,921 already.  If we stop out at 6,927, it's a loss of $120 per contract (risk) vs the potential $4,000 reward – you don't have to get too many of those right to have a very good winning balance in your Futures trades!  

Economically, the news is pretty good but politically, the news is horrific.  

I don't try to be anti-Trump.  Well, I am anti-Trump but I'm anti any terrible President who is destroying the country (I didn't like Bush II either) – it's not something I have against Trump in particular but, it's my job to tell you what's good and bad in the World and the vast majority of bad things just so happen to come from Trump and his Administration.  

Image result for watergate stock marketThe Trump crisis is shaping up to be "Worse than Watergate" and those of us old enough to remember the early 70s remember an economy that quickly spiraled out of control as mounting war debts pushed inflation higher and destablized the economy.  Hmm, now where have I heard about mounting war debts and rising inflation before?  Well, we don't want to draw comparisons because our economy hasn't destabilized, yet.

What most Americans don't know about, yet is that there's a brand new book called: "Russian Roulette: The Inside Story of Putin's War on America and the Election of Donald Trump" which lays out such an overwhelming amount of evidence of collusion between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to take the 2016 election that Joe Biden commented: "If this is true, it’s treason."

Another book, "Collusion" by Luke Harding points to a connection with Deutsche Bank, who extended hundreds of Millions of dollars of loans to Trump at the same time that its Moscow branch was laundering millions of dollars for Russian oligarchs – essentially funneling that money directly to candidate Trump to fund his election – a gross violation of US Campaign Finance Laws. 

Now you might read these books and say "Sure, there's tons of smoke, but where's the fire" and I suppose we can keep plodding along in blissful ignorance until long after this country is burned to ashes.  It is truly amazing how much Republican voters are willing to put up with – the same voters who tried to crucify Bill Clinton for lying about having an affair.  As noted by Psychologist, Ronald Riggio:

The we-they feeling is responsible for the seemingly inexplicable support that poor Whites continue to hold for Donald Trump, even as his policies seem to make their situation worse, with less access to healthcare and tax cuts that may hurt more than they help. The in-group (Trump supporters) draw together in solidarity and feel greater animosity, resentment, and even fear of, the outgroup. Trump’s rallies serve to increase in-group cohesiveness and foster greater negative feelings about the out-group of Trump’s detractors.

That loyalty is about to be put to the test as the country barrels headlong into a constitutional crisis if Trump fires Mueller for trying to investigate him but, based on the evidence I've read, there will be no less of a National Crisis if Mueller is allowed to continue investigating all this smoke – because there is most certainly a fire or two beneath it!  

Even if this Trump nonsense were the only thing going on, I'd urge you to be careful in the markets but we also have a massive scandal with Facebook (and Trump) that threatens the entire business model (selling your personal data) of the very companies that have been driving the rally and "justifying" the massive increse in valuations since "Big Data" is the "new paradigm" that is supposed to excuse the madness.

Be careful out there! 


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  1. Morning all.  Phil or anyone have an idea what's going on with /CL & /RB?

  2. GE under 14

    LB under 40

    FTR under 7


  3. Good morning!  

    Dow up about 100 (0.5%) at the open.  

    Oil/Rayne – It's contract rollover day, so anything can happen.  This is the last day trading the /CLJ8 (April) contract and TOS has already switched to /CLK8 (May) as the active contract.  I'm sure there's a big push to get the price up ahead of the rolls and, as of yesterday, there were still 28M barrels to get rid of (they'll probably keep 12M for actual delivery).

    Click for
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    Apr'18 62.10 63.30 62.08 63.21 09:32
    Mar 20


    1.15 6554 62.06 28673 Call Put
    May'18 62.20 63.39 62.13 63.34 09:32
    Mar 20


    1.21 241033 62.13 503568 Call Put
    Jun'18 61.98 63.16 61.93 63.11 09:32
    Mar 20


    1.15 40048 61.96 348438 Call Put
    Jul'18 61.59 62.78 61.59 62.72 09:32
    Mar 20


    1.11 12004 61.61 134507 Call Put
    Aug'18 61.13 62.28 61.13 62.23 09:32
    Mar 20


    1.07 6428 61.16 101482 Call Put
    Sep'18 60.64 61.74 60.64 61.70 09:32
    Mar 20


    1.03 9407 60.67 146921 Call Put

    Also, Trump is helping out the GOP donors by ratcheting up tensions with Iran and Venezuela's production is trailing off as their inflation spirals completely out of control and makes it difficult for them to do business – especially international trade.  

    Also, the EIA revised Gasoline demand up by 146,000 b/d but, of course, it's all exports:

    EIA’s US gasoline demand 

    The EIA estimated that the four-week average US gasoline demand increased by 146,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,195,000 bpd on March 2–9, 2018. The demand also increased by 227,000 bpd or 2.5% from a year ago.


    The rise in gasoline demand has a positive impact on gasoline and oil prices. Gasoline and crude oil prices have gained ~38% and ~46.6%, respectively, since June 21, 2017. The United States Gasoline ETF (UGA) tracks US gasoline futures. UGA has increased ~39% since June 21, 2017. The United States Oil ETF (USO) follows WTI crude oil futures. USO has increased ~44.1% since June 21, 2017.

    US gasoline consumption estimates

    US gasoline consumption averaged 9.32 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in 2017. According to the EIA, US gasoline consumption could average 9.35 MMbpd and 9.39 MMbpd in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Consumption could hit the highest annual average this year and next year, respectively.

    A rise in gasoline demand benefits gasoline prices. Higher gasoline prices relative to crude oil prices benefit the VanEck Vectors Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK). CRAK follows the MVIS Global Oil Refiners Index.

    CRAK rose 0.4% to 29.5 on March 16, 2018, while gasoline prices rose 1.1% on the same day. Gasoline prices and CRAK have increased ~38% and ~30%, respectively, since June 21, 2017.


    US gasoline demand was ~3.6% above its five-year average, which has a positive impact on gasoline and oil prices. Record gasoline demand in 2018 could also have a positive impact on gasoline and oil prices.

    Notice the "demand" for US gasoline is 9.195Mb/d last week (Products Supplied) but then notice that we are EXPORTING 2.67Mb/d of Petroleum Products (negative Net Imports – mostly gasoline) out of the country.  That's not US demand at all but the EIA, who certainly know better, pretend it is.  

    Gold spattered back to $1,300.  

    If the Dollar pops 90, Gold will fail $1,300 for the first time this year. 

  4. Interesting insider purchases on two high yielders :

    ~~NGL CEO bought 30,000 shares at $11.22 worth $336,747.  (This purchase occurred after the FERC ruling on MLPs).  Stock is yielding 14 %.


    ~~TICC CEO and President bought 17,498 shares at $6.05-6.12 worth $106,450. 

    Actually, in the last month, the CEO and the president have each made purchases totally over a a half a million.  Stock is yielding 13%.

  5. Most boring 140 points I ever saw the Dow gain…

    Stocks claw back from yesterday's rout

    • Stocks start higher a day after a sharp selloff led by tech shares; Dow +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.4%, S&P +0.3%.
    • European bourses edge higher, with U.K.'s FTSE +0.4%, Germany's DAX +0.3% and France's CAC +0.2%; in Asia, Japan's Nikkei finished -0.5% while China's Shanghai Composite closed +0.4%.
    • In U.S. corporate news, Oracle -8.8% after quarterly results showed better than expected earnings but disappointing cloud sales, and The Children's Place -10% despite beating quarterly profit estimates.
    • Ten of the 11 S&P sectors are higher, led by energy (+1.1%) as WTI crude futures +1.7% at $63.13/bbl; techs (-0.1%) start slightly in the red, with Facebook -1.9% following reports that the FTC may investigate the company's use of personal data.
    • Pres. Trump reportedly plans to announce on Friday $60B in annual tariffs on Chinese imports, targeting more than 100 products he says were developed using trade secrets from U.S. companies.
    • The FOMC begins its two-day policy meeting that will end with tomorrow's release of its latest policy directive, which is expected to result in a rate hike.
    • U.S. Treasury prices are broadly lower, sending yields higher across the curve; the benchmark 10-year yield is up 4 bps at 2.88%, while the two-year yield also is 4 bps higher at 2.33%, marking its highest level since September 2008.
    • Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s latest monthly survey shows that investors were heavily exposed to tech shares.
    • Long investors in the tech sector were the No. 1 crowded trade with a net 38% overweight. Short dollar positions were 17% overweight. 
    • Top investments were in the FAANG stocks (FB -2.8%), (AMZN +1.6%), Apple (AAPL +0.5%), Netflix (NFLX +1.7%), and Alphabet (GOOG -0.1%) and the BAT stocks, which includes Baidoo, Alibaba (BABA +1.9%), and Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY +2.4%). 
    • The survey included fund managers running $579B worldwide and was conducted from March 9 to March 15.  

    Redbook chain store sales

    Falling transport, accommodation and food prices drag U.K. inflation lower in February

    • U.K. inflation rate fell to 2.7% Y/Y from 3.0% in January against consensus of 2.8%.
    • Core CPI which outstrips food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco costs, rose at a seasonally adjusted rate of 2.4% below forecasts of 2.5%.
    • Transport, accommodation and food prices rose by less than a year ago partially offset by rising footwear prices.

    Saudi crown prince begins U.S. tour

    • Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman will meet President Trump at the White House today and then is expected to travel over the next two weeks to Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Seattle, Boston and Houston, where he will confer with oil and energy executives.
    • The trip comes as the crown prince prepares the kingdom for a post-oil era under a plan called Vision 2030 and amid reports that Aramco (Private:ARMCO) scaled back its IPO to a local listing on the Saudi stock exchang
    • Blow to Venezuela? President Trump has signed an executive order barring any U.S.-based financial transactions involving the new Petro cryptocurrency, which is backed by the nation's oil reserves.
    • "Instead of correcting course to avoid further catastrophe, the Maduro regime is attempting to circumvent sanctions through the Petro," declared Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, announcing further sanctions on Venezuelan government officials.

    Ford bringing connected features to older vehicles in mid-2018

    • Ford’s (NYSE:F) will release its FordPass SmartLink upgrade for older vehicles in mid-2018.
    • FordPass SmartLink can bring connected car features to Ford vehicles to model year 2010 to 2017 if the vehicle doesn’t already have native connectivity. 
    • Dealers will provide the device to vehicle owners. FordPass will cost $16.99/month for the base features (remote key fob, car location, vehicle health alert) and a Verizon 4G LTE hotspot feature can be tacked on for an added cost.
    • Ford shares are up 0.5% to $11.06. 
    • United Airlines (NYSE:UAL) says it will stop the shipment of pets in airplane cargo holds at least until May 1 while it reviews the program, after the death of a puppy and mistakes in handling other dogs last week prompted a wave of negative publicity.
    • The move does not affect travel for pets flying in-cabin, which was placed under review after the death last week of a dog placed in an overhead bin at the order of a flight attendant on a Houston-to-New York flight.
    • United had 18 pets die in 2017 while being shipped in the cargo hold under its "PetSafe" program, 3x as many deaths as American, Delta and Alaska airlines combined, according to data from the U.S. Department of Transportation.
    • The U.S. Air Force is set to begin testing a laser this summer that will be mounted on an F-15 warplane.
    • With an output of about 50 kilowatts, the system will review abilities to zap drones or cruise missiles.
    • The Pentagon awarded the $26M contract to Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) last year for the laser program called SHiELD (Self-protect High Energy Laser Demonstrator).
    • FedEx (NYSE:FDX) and Walmart (NYSE:WMTagree to place 500 new FedEx Office locations within select domestic Walmart stores across the U.S. over the next two years.
    • "We gravitated toward Walmart because they have this fantastic physical infrastructure," FedEx Office CEO Brian Philips tells CNBC. "We are already great partners with Walmart on the transportation side, so it was natural for us to talk about a store-within-a-store format."
    • Customers will be able to pack, ship and print from the locations, and can send packages to any Walmart-based Fedex Office location to store for up to five business days.
    • The two companies have piloted the program in 47 locations in six states, and have seen success during the test with salespeople using the locations inside Walmart to hold inventory, Philips says.

    IBM reaffirms FY18 guidance

    • IBM (NYSE:IBMreaffirms at least $13.80 for its FY18 EPS compared to the $13.83 consensus.
    • Company expects to deliver 17% to 18% of the FY expectation in Q1.  
    • IBM shares are down 0.2% to $157.11.  

    FDA moves toward menthol tobacco rule; British American most vulnerable

    • The FDA takes the first step toward implementing new rules on menthol tobacco, publishing an advanced notice of proposed rule-making seeking public comment on the role that flavors in tobacco products play in attracting youth.
    • The FDA banned certain flavors in cigarettes in 2009, but menthol was not included.
    • "Flavors may disguise the taste of tobacco. But flavored cigarettes and little cigars are every bit as addictive as any other tobacco products, have the same harmful health effects and may even make it harder to quit," the FDA says.
    • British American Tobacco (BTI +0.1%) is considered the most exposed tobacco company to the prospective rule change, as 55%-60% of its U.S. volume and 25%-27% of global profits is tied to menthol flavored products.
    • Other relevant tickers include MOPM.

    McDonald's outlines plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 36%

    • McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) says it will partner with franchisees and suppliers to cut greenhouse gas emissions from its restaurants and offices 36% by 2030, and commits to a 31% reduction in emissions intensity across its supply chain by 2030.
    • MCD says the combined target has been approved by the Science Based Targets Initiative, which it says is a first for a restaurant company.
    • MCD says it will prioritize action on the largest segments of its carbon footprint: beef production, restaurant energy usage and sourcing, packaging and waste.
    • The company says its effort is the equivalent of taking 32M passenger cars off the road for a year.

    Gun stock watch after Maryland school shooting

    • Gun stocks are in focus again after a student gunman opened fire at the Great Mills High School in Southern Maryland.
    • Three people have been injured, including the shooter, but no fatalities have been confirmed.
    • "The building is orderly and the Sheriff's Office is conducting an investigation," St. Mary's County Public Schools said on Twitter.
    • Related tickers: (AOBC +0.6%), (RGR +0.3%), (OLN +0.5%), SPWHVSTO
    • Other law enforcement names are also heading higher: (AAXN +2%), (DGLY +1.8%)

    More on Children's Place Retail Stores' Q4 results

    • Children's Place Retail Stores (NASDAQ:PLCE): Q4 EPS of $2.52 beats by $0.03.
    • Revenue of $569.97M (+9.4% Y/Y) misses by $4M.
    • Shares +0.4% PM.
    • The Children’s Place (NASDAQ:PLCE) announced that it has signed an exclusive license agreement for the Greater China market, covering Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau, with Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.
    • This partnership is projected to generate $125M to $150M in retail sales in year five.
    • Ms. Elfers concluded, “This partnership provides an entree for The Children’s Place into the China market that would not otherwise be possible with any other partner. Semir’s number one position in children’s retailing in China, their strong retail, digital and operational capabilities and their extensive knowledge of the Greater China market provides The Children’s Place with instant access to prime retail locations, established relationships with a large number of franchisees, and significant local sourcing and logistics capabilities. This partnership enables us to grow in China and takes us one step closer to our goal of becoming the leading global omni-channel children’s apparel brand.”
    • Children's Place Retail Stores (NASDAQ:PLCE) reports comparable retail sales rose 8.2% in Q4.
    • Adjusted gross margin rate improved 90 bps to 37%, driven by the leverage of fixed expenses resulting from the strong comparable retail sales and merchandise margin expansion.
    • Adjusted SG&A expense rate slipped 30 bps to 23.6%.
    • Adjusted operating margin rate expanded 40 bps to 10%.
    • Store count -25 Y/Y to 1,014.
    • Q1 Guidance: Comparable retail sales: low single digit increase; Adjusted EPS: $2.12 to $2.22.
    • FY2018 Guidance: Comparable retail sales: ~+2.5% to +3.5%; Adjusted EPS: $7.95 to $8.20.
    • PLCE +0.40% premarket.

    FDA clears expanded use for Restoration Robotics' ARTAS; shares up 13% premarket

    • Thinly traded micro cap Restoration Robotics (NASDAQ:HAIR) is up 13% premarket, albeit on only 200 shares, in response to its announcement that the FDA has granted 510(k) clearance to use its ARTAS Robotic Hair Restoration System for implanting hair follicles. The company says it expects to offer the additional functionality by year-end.
    • ARTAS was originally cleared for harvesting hair follicles.

    Match Group sues Bumble for patent infringement, Bumble responds

    • Match Group’s (NASDAQ:MTCH) Tinder is suing rival Bumble for patent infringement and IP misuse related to the “card-swipe-based, mutual opt-in premise.”
    • The suit also targets Chris Gulczynski and Sarah Mick, who both left Tinder for Bumble: “Bumble has released at least two features that its co-founders learned of and developed confidentially while at Tinder in violation of confidentiality agreements.” 
    • Match statement to TechCrunch: “Match Group has invested significant resources and creative expertise in the development of our industry-leading suite of products. We are committed to protecting the intellectual property and proprietary data that defines our business. Accordingly, we are prepared when necessary to enforce our patents and other intellectual property rights against any operator in the dating space who infringes upon those rights.” 
    • Bumble responds with a full letter to Match that opens with “We swipe left on your multiple attempts to buy us, copy us, and, now, to intimidate us.” 
    • Key quote from the response: “We swipe left on your attempted scare tactics, and on these endless games. We swipe left on your assumption that a baseless lawsuit would intimidate us. Given your enduring interest in our company, we expected you to know us a bit better by now.” 
    • Match Group shares are up 1.8% to $46.47. 

    Weinstein Co. files for bankruptcy, ends non-disclosures

    • After spending months looking for a buyer or investor, The Weinstein Company has filed for bankruptcy in Delaware, with a stalking horse offer in hand from private equity firm Lantern Capital.
    • The studio listed $500M-$1B in liabilities and said it would end all non-disclosure agreements that may have silenced some women.
    • More than 70 women have accused the company's co-founder, Harvey Weinstein, of sexual misconduct, including rape.

     -2.7% on report FTC is investigating data issue

    • Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) is seeing another rough opening, down 2.7%, on fresh word that the Federal Trade Commission is investigating.
    • The FTC is now trying to determine whether the company violated terms of a consent decreeregarding the use of personal data, Bloomberg reports.
    • The violation at issue involves whether Facebook allowed research firm Cambridge Analytica to receive some user data in violation of its policies.
    • A finding of violation could mean fines of thousands of dollars per violation per day; with 50M affected users, that could come to $2T.
    • The Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee of England's House of Commons has made a request of CEO Mark Zuckerberg to appear to testify over user data: "We are sure you will understand the need for a representative from right at the top of the organization to address concerns. Given your commitment at the start of the New Year to "fixing" Facebook, I hope that this representative will be you."
    • Previously: Facebook plans staff meeting today to discuss data scandal (Mar. 20 2018)
    • Previously: Facebook's auditors stand down on UK government request (Mar. 19 2018)
    • Previously: NYT: Facebook security chief exiting company amid disagreements (Mar. 19 2018)

    Reuters: Amazon pushing merchants for cross-border sales

    • Reuters reports that Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is pushing its merchants to sell into other countries to better compete with eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) and Alibaba (NYSE:BABA).
    • Amazon rents space in over 150 warehouses around the world to store merchandise near customers and avoid exporting items individually. 
    • Amazon VP Eric Broussard says more than a quarter of seller revenue last year was from cross-border transactions, which was up over 50% on the year to roughly $50B to $75B (based on analyst estimates.) 
    • Competitor eBay plans to expand into Japan as part of its global expansion while Alibaba recruits companies to sell in China.
    • Amazon shares are up 0.5% premarket to $1,553.     
    • Previously: Amazon to buy some Toys 'R' Us locations? (March 20)
    • Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has looked at the possibility of expanding its retail footprint by acquiring some locations from bankrupt Toys "R" Us, according to Bloomberg.
    • A deal would come on the heels of its Whole Foods acquisition and opening its own line of bookstores and a convenience-store concept.
    • In 2015, Amazon held similar discussions about acquiring some locations from bankrupt RadioShack, but nothing came of the talks.
    • Most Android phones will have to wait until 2019 to duplicate the 3D sensing feature behind Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) Face ID security, three major parts producers told Reuters.
    • That would handicap Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) and others on a technology that is set to be worth billions in revenue over the next few years, enabling facial recognition, biometrics for payments, gesture sensing, and immersive shopping and gaming experiences.

  6. Dollar rejected at 90, that got oil to new highs ($63.60 and /RB hit $1.973).  

    NGL/Albo – They probably had to wait or be accused of trading off the info.

  7. Phil, thoughts on shorting /RB at this price.  Seems reaction is somewhat overblown………

  8. Phil – The FERC ruling was supposed to be negative, but turned out not to be for many MLPs.

    GE at new multi-year low.  Oh, how the mighty have fallen.  In 2017, GE was the 30th most admired company.  Not anymore.  But I agree with Phil that the stock is a good long term buy.  Why ?  Because it's GE !

  9. Anyone shorting /RB here?

  10. I don't like the look of the moves so far, Futures all red but /YM, which is only up 0.3% in the Futures, not 0.5% the index is showing.  24,749, 2,719, 6,890 and 1,574 is two of four strong bounces but barely on the Dow (24,700) and the RUT (1,570).

    Of course, the Dollar is up 0.40 (0.5%) so that's been a headwind.

    /RB/Ult – Seems overdone but no real downside catalyst and they are sticking to the US demand story so tricky to short with holiday weekend coming next week (and spring break).   I think into inventory tomorrow, I'd like to take a poke short but I'd feel a lot better about it if they tested $2.



    GE/Albo – Down 2.5% today!  

    That is not pretty…

  11. Wow, TWTR off 9%, FB off 5%.    It will be interesting to see after the dust settles.. might get an opportunity to take a poke at TWTR.

  12. Phil

    Are we still in this trade ?

    January 16th, 2018 


    Still, that's no reason not to collect $4 for selling 5 of the July $65 puts ($2,000) in the LTP to remind us to keep an eye on them.


  13. The Facebook Armageddon

  14. The burnout year

  15. Learner – You've been reading my mail again ! 8-)

    I started a small position in TWTR a short while ago.  Sold a few Sept  $30 puts for $3.85.

  16. Learner / TWTR – do you have a target on TWTR?  are you looking at a put sale…. I was looking at selling a 29 put 

  17. How Millennials today compare with their grandparents 50 years ago

  18. Aramco Scales Back IPO Plan, Eyes Saudi-Only Listing

  19. TWTR/Learner – I think they will all start to get some oversight that may have long-term damage to their models.  That's why we didn't jump back into TWTR this year.

    CBT/QC – Hasn't been doing well but we're still in it.  Of course, our net entry is $61.40 (we took $3.60) and CBT is just under $60, so no tragedy yet.  

  20. IMAX/Phil – and HMNY, AMC – why so weak when the blockbuster movies have been so strong? Ready Player One is on deck, too.

  21. Indexes zigging and zagging and going nowhere overall.  Well, in the Futures anyway, the Dow index still says up 116 but Futures only up 44 and everyone else is red with the Dollar retesting 90.

    IMAX/Scott – People don't make the connection until after they have earnings.  They don't seem to connect the dots of the box office to IMAX making more money.  

    The Aug spike was from a penny beat  in Q2.  These earnings are 4/20ish.  

    As to HMNY – another evil data-gathering company, so they are going to have a rough month.  

    AMC losing money due to HMNY to some extent but their numbers are likely to show a net benefit to simply having more people eating popcorn.

  22. TWTR - 

    albo – you are the canary on this board.  Always read your posts.    

    batman-  I am waiting. (see below) …dont have a target since this is a stock that requires small positive beats to propel it by multiples.   Selling puts closer to low 20s to get a net entry in the teens would be the best imo, but I doubt we will get that low so watch the news and dollar cost slowly. 

    Phil/  Agree – there will be some carnage here and I am waiting for the dust to settle before initiating a position.  

  23. 3. Americans’ attitudes toward driverless vehicles

  24. GE – ticking ever lower… Perhaps GE will get dumped from the Dow.  

  25. I thought moviepass paid the full ticket price to the theaters so why would AMC lose money on them currently?

  26. bunch of dogs with fleas (GE, HMNY, ABX, IMAX, FTR, GNC, TEVA, JO, F, LB, HBI)…

    Hope these MOFO companies will one day actually move higher… DANGIT!

  27. GIS sort of tempting here, expect for impending death crosses on weekly and daily charts. P/e not super cheap yet either. stickler for dividends though, and recent history of beating annual earnings, with positive outlook. too.  And they actually make and sell real, tangible, products. Wait and watch.

  28. AMC/Tangled – I'm sure they get discount deals and the theaters get less revenue than they might have gotten, but not enough to hurt.

    Certainly not a value-driven market at the moment, Jabob.  Makes you realize how few stocks are actually driving the indexes.

    I have to be in NYC tomorrow morning (TV) so we'll do the webinar on Thursday.

    Fed day tomorrow too!

  29. HBI/Jabo – time to buy again? i'm trying to fill july/oct $21 call calendars @ .40

  30. HBI – And sell half as many May $18 puts @ .80 to pay for them.

  31. scott what do you expect to get out of the Oct 21 call after Jul. experation?

  32. An American president does not lead the Free World by congratulating dictators on winning sham elections. And by doing so with Vladimir Putin, President Trump insulted every Russian citizen who was denied the right to vote in a free and fair election.

    I am not familiar with any period in American history when an entire political party was as frightened of its own leader as Republicans are of Trump. They are all scared little children without an ounce of honor, integrity or courage.

    Surprise: Computers in investing face the same problems as humans in investing

    Steen Jakobsen: Now Is The Time To Be In Capital-Preservation Mode

    latest restructuring announcement: China State control over film, press, and publication, formerly imposed through SAPPRFT, will fall directly under the CCP propaganda department.

    Uber Not At Fault Says Police Chief

    Tesla getting near a very messy end game.  

    Image result for elon musk burning cash

  33. Women are now more likely to die from childbirth in Texas than in Tajikistan

    Judge says Trump can’t dodge lawsuit alleging he lied about groping a former “Apprentice” contestant

    Disputes stall work on $1.2 trillion spending bill in Congress


    Which firms profit most from America’s health-care system?  It is not pharmaceutical companies

    Wow, "THEY" are working so hard to keep things green.  Working so far…

    So now tomorrow's TV is cancelled (more snow) so I will do a Webinar Live at 1pm.

  34. Phil/Snow


    You got all of our snow.  Colorado has been hurting!

  35. HBI/Yodi – those are for backing the July 21 now..the July 21 calls have the best premium for burning off. the play is the calendar. depending on where things are then, i'll likely close the calendar entirely around july expiration.  an adjustment could be to roll the july 21 out to an October 22 or 23 making it a vertical. My 'target' is HBI to 21 to 22. If it goes above 22, also consider the roll. if it lingers a bit and the may puts expire, and the july 21 calls expire, I have 'free' long calls… depending on what the market looks like, might close, or pair with more put sales..   as it stands right now, still no fill.

  36. CHL/Phil- I got the 2020 call spread filled @ $4.75 but can't seem to sell the 47.5puts even @ 4.8. Their earnings is in 2 days, should I just get it filled incase CHL goes higher or dont take the risk and see what CHL trades at after earnings to try fill the puts(probably at a different strike)

  37. scott thanks I follow your way of thinking but still you paying 1.20 for the Oct call. What do you expect the value will be at Jul experation?

  38. scott the call need to be more than .45 to .50 cents before you make a penny. Obviously not taking the put sale in to consideration.

  39. Yodi – taking target of 21… the October 21s, bot here at 19.. I expect them to be up slightly.. 15 to 20 cents.

    also considered backing the july 21 calls with the oct 22's.  cheaper and less hit if HBI sinks. I'm out of the calendars if close below 18.50.

  40. Snow/Lala – I'm off to Whistler in a few weeks, hopefully they have some snow.

    /CHL/Dave – My attitude is that the $7.50 spread at $4.75 pays $2.75 (58%) with no margin required in 6 months.  I don't see the need to sell puts if we can't get a good price for them – especially right before earnings.  

    Either CHL will go lower and we'll get our fill or they go higher and we will make an easy 58%.

    Whole lotta nothin' ahead of the Fed today.

  41. MO is getting atractive at 61.50. For a new armchair trade sell the Sep 60/62.5 p/c for 6.50 having a combined return of 2.04% per month.

  42. Yodi – I like those armchair trades.  Fits nicely with one of my portfolios.  Thanks for the idea.

  43. tsh you welcome

  44. Thanks Yodi,    Like that trade a lot….

  45. sun you welcome MO has been always good to me. PM aswell but still a bit high over 100. 97 is more atrachtive.

  46. I had to see if Tajikistan really exists…

  47. Good morning!

    Just drifting into the Fed at the moment.  

    /RB all the way to $1.985 with oil at $64.30 as API showed a 2.7Mb draw in oil and a 1.1Mb draw in gasoline and a 1.75Mb draw in distillates so big net draw not likely to be matched by EIA means this is a fun spot to take a short but keep in mind it can go painfully against us too!