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Miraculous Monday – Trade War Ends A Day After It Starts

Image result for trump trade war china cartoonIt''s a miracle!

Or so they will have you believe.  Just one market day after Trump declares a Trade War on China, team Trump is claiming victory in that Trade War with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin saying that "the U.S. can reach an agreement with China that will avert the need for President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on at least $50 billion of goods from the country."  “We’re having very productive conversations with them,” Mnuchin said on “Fox News Sunday,” when discussing talks with China. “I’m cautiously hopeful we reach an agreement.”

An optimist would say Trump's threats worked and China backed down but a realist might say China's threat to retaliate worked and Trump backed down because the net effect here is there will be no sanctions placed against China and Wilbur Ross is already running around claiming it will be a victory if China promises to buy some LNG (liquefied natural gas) from the US to help balance the trade deficit.  

China, of course, doesn't care who they buy LNG from and, like oil, it's fungible – so it doesn't matter who we sell it to, there's a GLOBAL supply and demand picture that sets prices so if we sell more to China, we will sell less to someone else and not one job will be gained and not one net import/export Dollar will have shifted other than on the balance sheet with China.  

Speaking of oil, that's been holding up over $70 on Brent (/BZ) and $65.85 at the moment on WTIC (/CL) with Gasoline at $2.0325 heading into Easter Weekend.  It's going to be a nice short next week but this week there will still be a huge effort to keep the prices high into the holiday and the Saudis are pitching in by talking about extending their production cuts at the June OPEC meeting.  

Image result for saudi prince confiscatedWe'll see what sticks into the weekend but patience is the key on that trade as the Saudis are pulling out all the stops to keep the price of oil high as they continue to attempt to get an IPO for the state-run oil company, Aramco.  Without that money, the Saudis face some dire budget decisions as the money they confiscated from the Princes they locked in a hotel earlier this year begins to run out.

Meanwhile, with the markets all bouncy this morning in the low-volume Futures after selling off on big volume on Friday (50% more than normal), more than Tuesday and Wednesday combined, we are back looking for the same bounce lines we were looking for in Friday Morning's Report, which were:

  • Dow 24,350 (weak) and 24,550 (strong)
  • S&P 2,666 (weak and satanic) and 2,688 (strong) 
  • Nasdaq 6,850 (weak) and 6,950 (strong) 
  • Russell 1,565 (weak) and 1,580 (strong)

Those bounce lines are still very far away as a lot of technical damage was done to the indexes last week and all the pre-market move has done (so far) is taken a catastrophe off the table – for now.  There's certainly nothing very impressive about the S&P bouncing off the 200-day moving average – if that doesn't give you a bounce – then you are in a bear market! 

There's nothing at all bearish about a move in the S&P as long as it's under the 50-day moving average because any day under the 50 dma pulls the average lower and bends that line downward towards a bearish cross with the 200 dma, which then would be the "death cross" signal that TA people fear the most.  As you can see, the 50 dma was already trending lower and the further below we are, the sharper the correction will be.

Image result for dead cat bounce stock marketThat's why 2,666 is a "weak bounce" according to our 5% Rule™ – it doesn't do enough to correct the technical lines on the chart while 2,688, at least, gets you halfway back to the 50 dma and takes a little pressure off the lines but anything below that and you are still in a serious downtrend – so let's not be too impressed with this morning's 2,632 implied open – even though it is a 1.35% gain from Friday's disaster.  As I said to our Members on Friday: 

Remember, 2,640 is the 20% line so if that starts acting like the top of the range (and I've been saying it should be since the fall), then the midpoint is the 10% line way down at 2,420.   

Meanwhile, also in Friday Morning's Report, we discussed a hedge using the Nasdaq Ultra-Short ETF (SQQQ) to mitigate the damage and that trade idea was:

  • Sell 5 IMAX 2020 $20 puts for $4 ($2,000) 
  • Buy 20 SQQQ May $17 calls for $2.25 ($4,500) 
  • Sell 20 SQQQ May $22 calls for $1.05 ($2,100) 

It was only a one-day test but it does give you an idea of how these hedges work as the 5 IMAX puts actually fell from $4 to $3.70 ($1,850) and you $17/22 spread finished at $3.20/1.60 so net $1.60 ($3,200) less the $1,850 is net net $1,350, up $950 (237%) for the day and that's only "on track" for the full $10,000 payoff if the market keeps falling.  That's how a good hedge should work!  Today those gains will reverse but that's OK because so will the losses on the longs we were trying to protect.

It's not a big data week and trading will be slow into the holiday weekend (markets are closed Friday, Europe close Monday too) and only 5 Fed speakers to confuse us, which is why I very much doubt we'll have the energy to make our strong bounce lines, which means we'll remain a bit bearish into the weekend:

We also have some early earnings reports and we're very interested in Sonic (SONC), GameStop (GME) and Restoration Hardware (RH) and we'll see how the tone is set for Q1 with those consumer plays:

It's nice to see an exciting recovery into the open but it will be on very low volume and Europe is nowhere near as excited (fooled) as we are, with about 0.25% gains across the pond so please – be careful out there!  


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  1. MSFT

    Microsoft target raised to $130 from $110 at Morgan Stanley, a Street high  (87.18)

    MSFT indicated +3.9% premarket.



    USG rejects unsolicited and non-binding proposal by Gebr. Knauf KG to acquire all of the shares of USG for $42.00 per share in cash. 

    ~~ USG +20.4% (Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A/B) affirms 30.8% active stake, discloses that Knauf Entities have offered to acquired USG for $42.00/share).



  2. Probably some bot buying in progress as we stopped right on the 200 DMA for S&P and got close on the Dow. For the NYSE, the (dead) cat is out of the bag – we closed below the 200 DMA for the first time in close to 1 1/2 year.

  3. And a picture says it all:

  4. Some more charts:

    Conversely, the percentage of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average is 51%. This percentage falls in the lower end of a long term range, with some oversold levels reaching into the mid to upper teens though. In other words, short term, the market appears oversold, but on a longer term basis, not so much.

  5. Good morning!

    Right at 2,640 on /ES and /YM just poking over 24,000 for an exciting start to the day.  I think 2,640 fails – it's too big to fake but the opening move is super-strong.

    Dollar is way down so that's helping to boost things:

    Copper below $3 though, that's very bad. 

    That's what people REALLY think about the global economy.

    MSFT/Albo – When they want to bounce the market, they upgrade the big boys. 

    Big Chart – Needs to be re-drawn already!   All we're doing (so far) is erasing Friday's move.  In the 5% Rule, the whole Friday/Monday thing becomes a spike we throw out and we simply use Thursday's close as the data point again, which is why we're simply back at Friday's levels. 

    The real key is whether or not the NYSE can take back the 200 dma at 12,366 and it's now 12,359.

    Wow on that weekly change, StJ.

    Coffee coming off the floor:

    Right back where I started!  

    I should cut back to 2 but I have a lot of faith that we're heading much higher so I think I'll keep 4 going this time.  

  6. I like /YM short at the 24,000 line with tight stops above (so shorting at 23,999) – it's just a good line to use for a backstop and the morning bump seems a bit silly on no volume.

  7. Good Morning.

  8. Phil; the drop in the dollar is pushing gold and silver up.  Thoughts on shorting /GC here as opposed to playing /DX long?  Gold up 4% from last week's lows

  9. I like gold, Options, so I wouldn't short it.  I think the Dollar should be higher, so I'd rather go long on /DX than make a bet I don't fundamentally believe in.

  10. Europe close is back to 11:30am eastern

  11. The NRA’s Strategic Blunder

  12. OK, we want to protect that 100-point gain now so tight here and I'd just take 23,900 and be happy – we can swtich to /NQ short below 6,650.

    Thanks on Europe Mike!  

  13. For U.S. Farmers, China Tariffs’ Timing Is Brutal

  14. Well, like we suspected, that rally was BS and now that the volume is back – we're back to a sell-off.  

    Huge gains on /NQ now so stop at 6,600.

  15. Turns out we made more by switching to /NQ ($1,000) than if we stuck to /YM ($500).

    Russell (/RTY) is barely positive, up just 4 points – watch that 1,520 line.  

  16. Long /RB at $2? With the dollar weak it’s risky, but holiday coming up so what do you all think? 

  17. GE/Phil – what do the sellers know that we don't?

  18. Phil,

    You had an /NQ short? I must have missed that. Only saw the call for /YM short

  19. scott good question!!!!

  20. Jeffdoc/RB- too early in the week. Will wait till tomorrow evening. 

  21. FU GE!!!!

    FU HMNY!!!

    FU LB!!!

    FU OIH!!!


  22. Anyone – is this why GNC is dropping?

  23. Sold 1/3 of GLD calls that I bought last Thursday, up 60 %.

    Will look to add back on a pullback.

  24. Jabo have not seen your FU on FTR yet ????

  25. FU YODI!!!!

  26. ;-)

  27. /RB/Jeff – As a purely technical trade with very tight stops, sure, but I don't believe in /RB long so it's not one I'd play.

    /NQ/Japar – It was highlighted:

    March 26th, 2018 at 10:27 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink

    OK, we want to protect that 100-point gain now so tight here and I'd just take 23,900 and be happy – we can swtich to /NQ short below 6,650.

    On the other hand, if you missed that then you missed the call to take the /YM money at 23,900 so at least you got $1,000 per contract on those. cheeky

    GE/Scott – Must be something good as GE is down on what was a good day for the Dow (still not bad).  I think they are getting kicked out and there are so many Dow Index funds that have to liquidate massive GE positions that it's depressing the price. 

    GNC/Grass – Well not dropping now and I doubt that was anything.

    GLD/Albo – Very nice, good call!  

    At least it woke up ABX:

  28. Europe closed down half a point.

  29. Very nice Albo.   I follow a few trades you and Yodi share on the blog.  I wait until I see a few FU’s.   Then I buy/sell.   :-) .  

    Thank both of you for sharing. 

    Thanks Phil!   

  30. FUs – from Jabo for clarification.  

  31. Can we have a separate portfolio for the Jabo FU indicator?  Phil puts out an idea, then after three Jabo FUs on the stock it gets added!  

    Also FU GE!

  32. Here's today's attack on GE:

    WSJ: Shadow looms over GE Capital

    |By:, SA News Editor 

    After a difficult year marred by a slumping share price and promises to jettison major units, General Electric (NYSE:GE) investors face another uncertainty: risks left over from the industrial giant’s once-massive lending business, WSJ reports.

    "It is not fully known what residual risks GE retained when it dismantled GE Capital." said Martin Sankey, a senior research analyst at Neuberger Berman. "The question becomes, does GE Capital have any value at all."

    In addition to legacy insurance policies, it has exposure to subprime U.S. mortgages and unusual financial products, including $3.1B in floating-rate Polish residential mortgages that are mostly denominated in Swiss francs.

    In the near-term, it is too early to say that GE is undervalued by at least 25 percent, through a sum of the parts analysis. If GE were to sell itself through a break-up, shareholder value would fall, not go up. Management is better off paying consultants and turnaround specialists to turn underperforming units around. At present, the company has no excuse for losing out to foreign competitors in its medical equipment business. Its turbine engine is world-class and will have an even better reputation after its biggest engine in the world, the GE9X, took flight in on March 14. It already has 700 GE9Xs on order, with Boeing (BA) set to get two of the engines for the 777X later this year.

    At a list price of $44 million per engine, GE is sitting on a backlog of $31.1 billion worth of engine orders. With the way GE stock is trading, investors will only widen the discount on the price/sales ratio.

    The SEC’s investigation into GE’s accounting practices is the biggest headwind pulling the stock lower. If the SEC finds no wrong-doing or if GE settles with the SEC and agrees to fine-tune its accounting methods, the uncertainties on GE’s books will end. That moment could mark an end to the downturn in its stock.

    Market cap is currently $111Bn so, even accounting for troubles this year, forward p/e is well below 10.

    In the OOP, we have 10 short 2020 $20 puts we sold for $3.50 so $16.50 is break-even on those.  We also have 30 long 2020 $13 calls we paid $3.75 for, they are now $2.45 but we can sell the $15 calls for $1.60 and roll the $13 calls to the $10 calls at $4.10 for pretty much $0 and we could roll the short $20 puts to 2x the 15 puts ($3.30) but I'm comfortable with the $16.50 break-even target for now (and we'll roll to 2022 anyway).  

    The LTP is similar but we sold 20 2020 $18 puts for $2.40 (new $15.60) and we have 50 of the $13 calls.  

    So not at all worried about where we are now and I'd rather wait for earnings (4/20) before covering with short calls.  

  33. 2-year note sale had good demand.

  34. Gosh, you'd expect more excitement from an up 400 day on the Dow…

    Of course, if you put it in perspective:

    This is why this is my last Monday!  

    I could have stayed another day in DC.  

    • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey+21.4 vs. +31 consensus and +37.2 prior.
    • Production: +12.7 vs. +27.9 prior.
    • Capacity Utilization: +9.6 vs. +19.6 prior.
    • New Orders: +8.3 vs. +25.3 prior.

    India says China promises to address trade deficit concerns

    • Following the Trump $60B tariff on China, India urged China to reduce the trade deficit by having greater market access for products like rapeseed, soyabean, rice and sugar.
    • Bilateral trade between India and China boomed to $71.45B in 2016-17 from $1.83B in 1999-2000, though most of this is skewed to Chinese exports.
    • The trade deficit has widened to $51.1B, a nine-fold increase over the last decade, despite repeated Indian calls for China to address the imbalance and open its markets.
    • Beat up more than most in the selloff last week, the financial sector (XLF +2.3%) is outperforming the S&P 500's 1.85% advance early this morning.
    • JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), MetLife (NYSE:MET), AIG, U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB), and State Street (NYSE:STT) are all sporting near-3% or higher gains.
    • Baird's David George urges clients to buy the dip in U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo (WFC+2.1%), calling them "good banks left behind."
    • Meanwhile, BAML's takes note of helpful tailwinds for life insurers as it reinstates Lincoln Financial (LNC +2.7%) and Torchmark (TMK +2.2%) with Buy ratings.
    • Bitcoin today is lower by 4.5% and within a handful of dollars of slipping back below $8K. Ether is down 7.2% to $458 and Litecoin off 7% to $149.
    • In blockchain-related stocks, Longfin (LFIN -8.6%) is under attack by Andrew Left, who calls the company a "pure stock scheme."
    • Coindesk has comments from Coinbase's (Private:COINB) Dan Romero, who says his company would like to add a number of new cryptocurrencies to its offerings, but "the reality of the regulatory situation" will keep that from happening in the near future.
    • Romero: "When we get to a point that we know which digital currencies and assets are securities, which ones are commodities, money or currency, it would be immensely helpful."
    • OTCQX:GBTC -5%

    Goldman Sachs says gold will 'outperform' as it hits highest in six weeks

    • With increasing risk of an equity market correction and fears of rising inflation, analysts at Goldman Sachs have turned bullish on the yellow metal for the first time in nearly five years.
    • "Based on empirical data for the past six tightening cycles, gold has outperformed post rate hikes four times," the analysts led by Eugene King said.
    • Goldman Sachs says it is bullish on gold (GLD +0.6%) for the first time in five years, as signs of an uptick in inflation and the "increased risk" of a stock market correction should support prices for bullion.
    • "Our commodities team believes that the dislocation between the gold prices and U.S. rates is here to say," Goldman Sachs says.
    • Goldman foresees four interest rate hikes this year, and while admitting its upbeat gold projections might then seem "counterintuitive," it says "based on empirical data for the past six tightening cycles, gold has outperformed post rate hikes four times."
    • Gold is higher today at $1,354, up 0.4%, and has rallied nearly 4% since last week.
    • Barrick Gold (ABX +1.4%) says it cut 2017 compensation for its top two executives to reflect a challenging “shareholder experience” and operations at some mines.
    • ABX cut the 2017 long-term bonus for Executive Chairman John Thornton by 18% Y/Y to $4.3M, trimming his total compensation by 9.4% to $7.7M from $8.5M in 2016, and sliced President Kelvin Dushniksy’s 2017 total compensation by nearly 19% to $4.2M after lowering his annual bonus to $693K from $1.4M in 2016.
    • ABX shares fell 15% last year even as the price of gold gained 11%; in 2017, ABX suffered a third cyanide spill in 18 months at its Veladero mine in Argentina and struggled under an export ban for its Acacia Mining unit in Zambia that remains unresolved.

    Campbell Soup absorbs Snyder's-Lance

    • Campbell Soup (CPB +0.4%) announces that it completed the $6.1B acquisition of Snyder’s-Lance (NASDAQ:LNCE).
    • The company expects "significant" value creation from the deal through synergies and operational gains, including ~$170M in cost synergies by end of FY22 and ~$125M of Snyder’s-Lance’s existing cost transformation program.
    • Campbell is forming a new U.S. snacking unit called Campbell Snacks to house the new business and Pepperidge Farm.
    • "The combination of Campbell and Snyder's-Lance creates a unique, diversified snacking portfolio of differentiated brands and a large variety of better-for-you snacks for consumers. I am excited about the combination and confident that it will create significant shareholder value through both revenue growth and cost synergies," says Campbell CEO Denise Morrison.
    • Management will discuss the impact of Snyder’s-Lance to FY18 guidance when the company reports Q3 earnings on May 18.

    Walmart and Target ready to pounce in toys

    • There's new analysis out on the impact of the Toys "R" Us bankruptcy on Walmart (WMT +1.7%) and Target (TGT +2.7%) from Coresight Research.
    • "Walmart and Target look set to punch above their weight in terms of gaining shoppers from Toys ‘R’ Us store closures as they overindex for browsing and buying among Toys ‘R’ Us shoppers relative to all toy shoppers," observes the research firm.
    • Analysts with other firms have made similar observations on the positive overlap between the two retailers and Toys "R" Us.
    • Toys "R" Us was the 4th largest toy seller in the U.S. behind Amazon, Walmart and Target
    • Research from a location data ad firm shows shoppers making more short trips to Whole Foods with Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) lockers installed.
    • The data from inMarket (via Reuters) showed that visits of three to five minutes were up 11% at stores with lockers. Stores in the same cities that didn’t have lockers saw a 7% gain in the same period. 
    • Lockers allow Amazon shoppers to ship an order to a one-time use locker at no additional cost. The service is popular among those afraid of package theft or who live in buildings don’t allow for package deliveries. 
    • Research data: The study included 98 stores in the metro areas of New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Francisco, Washington, Houston, Boston, and Atlanta. About 76 stores included lockers. 
    • Amazon shares are up 1.6% to $1,519.  

    AbbVie continues sell-off, down 5%

    • Sellers continue to dominate AbbVie (ABBV -4.8%), down on 10% higher volume. Shares have lost 23% of their value since March 13.
    • The rout was stoked by disappointing mid-stage data on Rova-T in small cell lung cancer.
    • Jefferies' Jared Holz says the company's pipeline is now being questioned around the Street.
    • BofAMerrill Lynch's Jason Gerberry adds a positive note saying top seller Humira is "unlikely to cliff" citing expectations for a "measured pace" of revenue declines from biosimilar competition, still a relatively long five years away. He also says key pipeline drivers are "clinically derisked."
    • Source for analysts comments: Bloomberg
    • Previously: Abbvie backs away from pursuing accelerated approval for Rova-T after disappointing mid-stage data in third-line lung cancer; shares down 7% premarket (March 22)

    JPMorgan cautious on tech sector after China tariffs

    • JPMorgan warns clients that President Trump’s China tariffs could cause tech stocks to come “under pressure.”
    • Global Equity strategist Mislav Matejka says the firm has a “cautious stance on tech sector, which has elaborate supply chains, is sensitive to consumer and corporate confidence, and where the adverse trade impact could be material. This is especially after tech has had such a dramatic run already. In the past five years, Tech is up 130 percent globally … tech valuations are no longer attractive.” 
    • Matejka expects the tariffs to “target aeronautics, modern rail, new energy vehicles and high-tech products” while “tech hardware and machinery are among the largest U.S. import categories” and therefore at risk. 
    • President Trump announced the tariffs last Thursday. The S&P 500 dropped over 2% on Thursday and Friday, and the Dow Jones lost over 1,000 points. The information technology sector dropped nearly 6% for the week. 
    • The tech sector (NYSEARCA:XLK) is up 1.2% after the Chinese foreign ministry said this morning it would consider talking with the U.S. to resolve trade differences.   
    • More details on this morning’s Susquehanna downgrade of AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) from Neutral to Negative with a price target drop to $7.50.
    • Analyst Christopher Rolland cites impending competition from Bitmain, a cryptocurrency mining company.
    • Rolland says the firm traveled through Asia last week and confirmed that Bitmain had developed an application-specific integrated circuit (OTC:ASIC) for mining Ethereum with the supply chain readying for Q2 shipments.
    • The analyst notes that Bitmain will likely become the largest ASIC vendor with 70% to 80% of the market. But there are three other companies also developing Ethereum ASICs.
    • Rolland estimates this type of mining-related sales accounted for about 20% of AMD’s sales and 10% of Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA).
    • He also lowers his Nvidia target from $215 to $200, a 14% downside to Friday’s close, but didn’t downgrade the company.
    • AMD shares are down 1.9% to $10.42.
    • Nvidia shares are down 3.3% to $240.66. 
    • Previously: Susquehanna downgrades AMD (March 26)
    • Gabelli reportedly says Samsung (OTC:SSNNFOTC:SSNLF) will return to the OLED TV market, which would prove a major positive for Universal Display (NASDAQ:OLED).
    • Source: Notable Calls
    • Last month, Samsung and Universal Display renewed a long-term OLED material supply and license agreement that extends until the end of 2022. 
    • Universal Display shares are up 2.6% to $108.  

    • Twitter (TWTR +0.9%) will ban most advertising of cryptocurrencies, confirming an earlier report.
    • That means it's following in the footsteps of similar moves at Facebook and Google.
    • It will prohibit ads for initial coin offerings as well as those promoting token sales and crypto wallets, and those from cryptocurrency exchanges with some exceptions.
    Image result for an invitation they cannot refuse animated gif
    • It's not easy to sort out among the various congressional representatives talking tough this week on tech privacy regulation, but a notable voice just made news: Senate Judiciary Commitee Chairman Charles Grassley is holding a hearing and inviting Facebook (FB -2.3%) CEO Mark Zuckerberg to testify.
    • The hearing is set for April 10 and covers data privacy.
    • He's also invited Twitter (TWTR +1.1%) CEO Jack Dorsey and Google (GOOGGOOGL -0.2%) chief Sundar Pichai.
    • Grassley wants to discuss the future of data privacy and how to develop "rules of the road" for companies in the space.
    • It's lunch break at the AT&T/Time Warner trial on a day where the chiefs of Sling TV (DISH+0.8%) and Turner (NYSE:TWX) were to take the stand.
    • The morning was spent watching lead attorneys speaking privately with Judge Richard Leon, The Washington Post's Brian Fung says, hinting at some irregularity that may have taken place.
    • The judge said “it’s going to take a while to sort out what happened and what consequences” may follow, “what’d be the appropriate remedy," Fung tweets.
    • Sling chief Warren Schlichting was seen speaking privately with the judge and attorneys for the companies and for the government, he says.
    • AT&T (NYSE:T) is up 0.3% on the day; Time Warner (TWX) is up 1.4%.
    • Google (GOOGGOOGLdebuts the Acer Chromebook Tab 10, the first Chrome OS tablet.
    • The Tab 10 is aimed at the education market and the launch comes one day before Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) planned education event, which is expected to include the launch of a lower cost iPad.
    • Google accounted for 60% of the mobile computing shipments to American students (K-12) in Q3, according to Futuresource Consulting. Apple held 17% of the market and Microsoft came in second with 22%. 
    • The Tab 10 has a 9.7-in. LED-backlit display, 2048 x 1536 resolution, PPI of 261, and supports the included Wacom EMR stylus. The new budget iPad could launch with Pencil support. 
    • The pricing is interesting at $329, which matches the current entry-level iPad with tomorrow’s launch likely coming in cheaper.
    • The Tab 10 launches in April in North America and in launches in EMEA in May.        
    • Previously: Analyst expects foldable iPhone in 2020; new iPad coming next week? (March 23)

    Stormy '60 Minutes' pulls best ratings in 10 years, wins night for CBS

    • Sunday's broadcast of 60 Minutes, featuring adult film star Stormy Daniels describing a 2006 affair with Donald Trump, looks in early numbers to be the most-watched airing of that program in 10 years.
    • Anderson Cooper's interview with Daniels easily topped 20M viewers, hitting close to 23M at the top even though the broadcast was delayed by overtime basketball. That will make it more heavily watched than Trump's own post-election appearance in 2016, and might approach the 24.5M that saw Barack Obama on the program in 2008.
    • Combined with a lead-in of NCAA men's basketball tournament coverage (an overtime win for Kansas over Duke), it marked an easy win for the night for CBSup 2.1% today.

  35. Tempting to short the indexes again but they are making new highs so only if things start to fail.  2,640 on /ES is our best signal and that's lined up with 6,700 on /NQ, 1,535 on /TF and 24,050 on /YM but 2,640 MUST FAIL if we are going to short things – /NQ 6,700 would be the favorite at the moment.


  36. same here, kudos to Yodi and Albo who consistently post their ideas and actionable trades


  37. Lol Phil! 

  38. Well, forget that, they went the other way already.  Not much to do now but wait and see if they hit the weak bounces.  And, don't forget, it's Monday – this could all be gone tomorrow – Europe was seeing things very differently than we were and now we'll have to see who Asia agrees with.

  39. Well one has to place orders on the dip and some of the plays given, are out at present. Besides this market is worth than the weather. I closed today an Armchair with IP buy the stock at 52.15 and sell the Aug 50/52.5 p/c for 5.80 combined return 2.5% per month. Possible still workable. Stock is recovering from the bottom line!

  40. Regret IBM went up to fast from 148.89 to 152.50 possible we can do that trade on the next dip.

  41. Phil

     Did we close the short June DIA 255 Puts?

    I close out a while ago


  42. DIA/QC – We closed those on 3/2!  

    A sea of short dated Treasury auctions may overwhelm the market

    • A flood of short-dated Treasury securities will make this week the busiest issuance week ever as the government raises $294B with sales of bills and notes.
    • Record high issuance has raised unsecured borrowing costs as seen with an explosion in dollar Libor spreads, which are nearing global financial crisis highs.
    • “These larger auctions are more difficult to digest,” said Thomas Simons, a money-market economist at Jefferies. “But the auctions do OK when they have a concession. It’s even more necessary than it was in the past.”
    • Big Oil and crude oil prices are poised for the start of a new "golden age," Goldman Sachs says, maintaining Buy ratings for Chevron (NYSE:CVX), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) and Royal Dutch Shell ([[rDS.A]], RDS.B).
    • Goldman says Big Oil companies tend to enjoy their best performance during "restraint" phases of the cycle, "defined by backwardation, cost deflation and consolidation – when a high risk premium on long-term oil prices restrains investment and creates high barriers to entry," rather than in rising oil prices environments, and the firm argues oil is entering a new restraint phase, given a global effort to shift away from fossil fuels and higher risks.
    • Also, Credit Suisse says oil company stocks are looking a bit more attractive, as sector multiples have "come back down to earth" thanks to strong earnings and lagging share prices.

    In the LTP, let's sell 5 FB 2020 $120 puts for $10.20 ($5,100).  That seems very reasonable to me. 

  43. Wow, Nasdaq 6,775 after hours – almost hit the weak bounce line!

    Now they are all makeable tomorrow.  

    Volume was average overall, quite a bit less than Friday.

    Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
    Mar 26, 2018 262.13 265.43 259.41 265.14 265.14 122,352,170
    Mar 23, 2018 264.17 264.54 257.83 258.05 258.05 167,918,300
    Mar 22, 2018 267.91 268.87 263.36 263.67 263.67 148,785,900
    Mar 21, 2018 270.90 273.27 270.19 270.43 270.43 78,709,600
    Mar 20, 2018 270.94 271.67 270.18 270.95 270.95 59,757,300
    Mar 19, 2018 273.35 274.40 268.62 270.49 270.49 109,208,400
    Mar 16, 2018 274.50 275.39 274.14 274.20 274.20 100,343,700

  44. Phil / LB – dividend payout ratio is approaching 70% – do you think it' s at risk?

  45. Amid bribery scandal, GOP Congressman says he thinks Paul Ryan is resigning as Speaker

  46. Facebook Comes Under F.T.C. Scrutiny as Stock Slides

  47. Cash-strapped Alaska eyes earnings from oil wealth fund

  48. Arizona governor suspends Uber from autonomous testing

  49. Good morning! 

    Dollar had a nice pop this morning but it hasn't held anything else back – just an up and up day for the market. 

    Still waiting to see if we hit our bounce lines. 

    LB/Batman – They've certainly given no indication they'll be cutting and cash flows were impacted by inventory write-downs, not so much a lack of money.  Also, they've been buying back $400M+/yr of stock (4%), so I think they'd cut that back before cutting dividends.