Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

Thrilling Thursday – Indexes Run Up to the Strong Bounce Lines – Now What?

Image result for meaty beaty big and bouncyWe're right at our bounce targets.  

Dow 24,100, S&P 2,646, Nasdaq 6,575 and Russell 1,557 were our strong bounce lines in yesterday's Report and that's right on the 7,000 line for the Nasdaq Composite we are using as a major "pass/fail" level for the market in general.  A lot of strong earnings from Tech last night ONLY got us to the 7,000 line – so not very impressive so far and I am in favor of shorting the Nasdaq (/NQ) at the 6,600 line with VERY tight stops above that line.  We might get another spectacular failure on any hiccup in earnings this morning.

There's not really any news driving things but we do get a Durable Goods Report at 8:30, Consumer Comfort at 9:45 and the Kansas City Fed Reports at 11 ahead of a 7-year note auction at 1pm in which the US will attempt to borrow $29Bn at less than 3% interest so "THEY" want the market to be lower at 1pm to herd the sheeple into bonds – we'll see how things play out.

If you didn't like where the market was yesterday, all you had to do is walk away for an hour and it would be heading the other way when you got back.  The Dow went from 23,850 at 7:30 to 24,050 at the open to 23,800 at 9:45 to 24,000 at 11 back to 23,850 at noon and then on to 23,950 just after 1pm and back down 50 and then a nice move to 24,100 at 3pm but it was too much, too soon and we fell back 100 points into the close but then, miraculously, in the last 5 minutes, we spiked back up 75 points to engineer a decent close.  If it sounds like total BS, that's because it was – this is a thin, bot-traded market and clearly it's being pushed up whenever the volume is low and then sold off to the suckers who think they are smart for buying the dips. 

As I said on Monday, when the Dow was at 24,450, which is now 300 points from here, we're waiting for the week's and Amazon (AMZN), MSFT (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Starbucks (SBUX) and Bidu (BIDU) get their licks in tonight followed by Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) tomorrow so, in the very least, we should have a handle on the Dow by tomorrow.  Q1 GDP also comes tomorrow at 8:30 and we're expecting a downward revision there to put a damper on things.

Meanwhile, the range remains the same as it's been all year and the S&P is now trading right at our 20% line, so we'll just have to see which way things break.  As the great WOPR once said "Strange game, sometimes the only winning move is not to play."

 


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!



Comments (reverse order)


    You must be logged in to make a comment.
    You can sign up for a membership or log in

    Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

    Click here to see some testimonials from our members!


  1. Good morning, All!

    Join us for the weekly webinar today at 1pm!

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7472911432863104259



  2. My attempt at the 5% rule for oil:


  3. Good Morning.


  4. Aapl earnings play, or wait and watch?


  5. Good morning! 

    Durable goods were good on headline but very bad ex-aircraft.  Not a market-mover so far:

    • March Durable Goods: +2.6% vs. +1.6% expected, +3.5% (revised from +3.0%) prior.
    • Core durable goods: +0.0% vs. +0.5% expected, +0.9% (revised from +1.0%) prior.
    • Initial Jobless Claims -24K a209K vs. 230K consensus, 233K prior (revised).
    • Continuous Claims: -29K at 1.837M vs. 1.866M.

    Big Chart – As long as RUT holds 1,550, things should be OK but watch that 200 dma on the NYSE – that's a big no-no if we fail it.  

    Oil/StJ – Assuming you want to use the 1-year time-frame, I'd say $50 is the base and the range goes to $75 and I'd calculate lines off that at $2.50 each making $67.50 the blue line.  

    I put a lot of weight on the consolidation around $50 and the breakout along with the fact that it's justified as OPEC continues to effectively reduce the global surplus.   Heading into July, I lean a bit positive so $75 is very realistic for a top and, of course, it's 50% more than $50 so works out.  The idea of the blue line is that we expect good news to keep us above it and bad news to send us below it so $67.50 seems right for Q2/3 and, in Sept, once we're back below $67.50, I'll really like shorting oil back to $55 or $50 in the winter.  

    Shorter-term, we still use $67.50 but now we can just draw the -2.5% and +2.5% lines at $65 and $70 and then break those down to 0.50 increments for bounces and retracements on the hourly chart.

    AAPL/Knight – Could got 10% either way.  I hope lower because then we can BUYBUYBUY but not going to bet in advance.  

    Speaking of BUYBUYBUY:

    • via WSJ
    • American Express (NYSE:AXP) could become the first U.S. card network to offer services in China after the PBOC approved its application to clear and settle domestic bank-card transactions (via a JV with Lianlian Group).
    • It's a first step towards AmEx getting a piece of China's fast-growing electronic-payment market, and Beijing will no doubt take note of the approval when White House advisors visit next week for trade talks.
    • Still, the fact that AmEx is taking on a Chinese partner illustrates the troubles foreigners face when trying to do banking business there. There's no level playing field, says WilmerHale's Lester Ross, just a door "for firms to crawl through."

    AXP is already priced for a lot of growth so I haven't been interested but this would be a game-changer if it goes through in the World's 2nd-largest economy.  

    • Adjusted net income of $431M, or $1.00 per share, an increase of 47% in adjusted per share results compared to the first quarter of 2017.
    • Refinery throughput capacity utilization was 94%, and throughput volumes averaged 2.9M bpd, which is 93K bpd higher than Q1 of 2017.
    • The company exported a total of 271K barrels per day of gasoline and distillate during the quarter, while ethanol production volumes of 4.1M gallons per day were in line with the period a year ago.
    • The company also invested $631M of capital and returned $665M in cash to stockholders through dividends and stock buybacks.
    • VLO +1.6% premarket
    • Q1 results

    Wholesale inventories rise 0.5% in March

    • The U.S. airline sector is reeling after American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) lowers full-year profit guidance below consensus estimates and Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) warns that reservations have dipped following the fatality on one of its flights due to an engine failure.
    • The two developments have raised the level of anxiety with investors over Q2 and full-year trends.
    • Shares of Southwest are down 4.14% in premarket action, while American is 4.09% lower. Also in harm's way: Delta Air lines (NYSE:DAL-1.26%, JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU-2.03%, Hawaiian Holdings (NASDAQ:HA-1.05%, United Continental (NYSE:UAL-1.25%, Alaska Air Grooup (NYSE:ALK-2.02%.

    I guess people are taking the boat:

    • Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL) updates guidance after posting a mixed Q1 earnings report. Gross yields were up 3.1% and net yields were up 4.9% on a constant currency basis during the Wave Season period.
    • The cruise line operator expects Q2 EPS of $1.85 to $1.90 vs. $1.71 consensus and full-year EPS of $8.70 to $8.90 vs. $8.76 consensus.
    • Summing up the vibe at the company, CEO Richard Fain says "this year is proving to be another strong year with all our brands firing on all cylinders."
    • RCL +2.96% premarket to $122.00.
    • Previously: Royal Caribbean Cruises beats by $0.13, misses on revenue (April 26)
    • Keep an eye on Restaurant Brands International (NYSE:QSR) after Jim Chanos tells CNBC that he has been short the restaurant stock for about a year.
    • Chanos maintains that runaway valuations in the restaurant sector don't add up with all the headwinds ahead. He says he is not a believer in the "asset light" model being utilized by more and more restaurant companies.
    • QSR -2.10% premarket to $53.75.
    • Domino's Pizza (NYSE:DPZ) jumps in premarket trading after the pizza chain reports domestic store comparable sales growth of 8.3% in Q1 to smash the consensus estimate for a 4.7% increase.
    • International same-store sales growth of 5.0% was also ahead of expectations.
    • Net income soared 42% to $26.4M during the quarter. EPS was up 74%, due in part to a lower share count after buybacks.
    • Domino's ended the quarter with 14,966 total stores vs. 14,856 stores heading into the quarter.
    • DPZ +7.25% premarket to $250.45.
    • Previously: Domino's Pizza beats by $0.23, beats on revenue (April 26)
    • General Motors (NYSE:GM): Q1 EPS of $1.43 beats by $0.16.
    • Revenue of $36.1B (-12.4% Y/Y) beats by $1.43B.
    • Shares -0.94% PM.
    • Press Release
    • Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU): Q1 EPS of €0.66 misses by €0.04.
    • Revenue of €27.03B (-2.5% Y/Y) misses by €710M.
    • Shares +1.87% PM.
    • Press Release

    • GNC Holdings (NYSE:GNC): Q1 EPS of $0.24 beats by $0.02.
    • Revenue of $607.53M (-7.2% Y/Y) beats by $34.31M.
    • Press Release
    • Ford (NYSE:F) announces that it will stop selling all sedans in the U.S. except the Mustang and a new Focus model.
    • The company expects that by 2020 almost 90% of its portfolio will be trucks, utilities and commercial vehicles.
    • "Given declining consumer demand and product profitability, the company will not invest in next generations of traditional Ford sedans for North America," said the automaker.
    • The strategy to "feed" the healthier parts of its business was tipped earlier this year by CEO Jim Hackett.
    • Shares of Ford are up 3.33% premarket to $11.48.
    • United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS): Q1 EPS of $1.55 in-line.
    • Revenue of $17.11B (+10.3% Y/Y) beats by $670M.
    • Shares +1.46% PM.
    • Press Release
    • South Korea's economy bounced back last quarter as GDP growth expanded 1.1%, buoyed by booming exports of data memory chips and a boost from government spending.
    • The data comes ahead of tomorrow's meeting between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korea's Kim Jong-un, the first summit between the two sides in more than a decade.
    • After a day of retrenching following earnings that featured a softer look-ahead on its conference call, Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) is up 2% premarket alongside an upgrade to Outperform at Macquarie.
    • That followed on an upgrade to Buy from UBS, part of four upgrades Twitter's received since posting earnings Wednesday morning (and several more price target hikes).
    • Macquarie expects Twitter's cautious guidance to come out conservative amid strong usage and advertising trends. The company's long-term opportunities are solid, it says.
    • Raymond James upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform, pointing to ad growth trends and sales execution, international growth and a mix shift to video topping 50%. (h/t Bloomberg)
    • JPMorgan has raised its price target to $39 (implying 31% upside), urging buys on weakness. Cowen bumped its target to $24, Mizuho raised its target to $25, and Jefferies raised its target to $33.
    • Earnings call transcript

     

     


  6. /KC $120 and that's where we look to exit and wait for the next time! 




  7. Ronny Jackson withdraws as VA secretary nominee


  8. Any thoughts on GILD?


  9. No comments …any issue with the website?


  10. Whoops, so much for shorting, things turning sharply higher.  

    Retail Inventories coming down inidicates good conusumption:

    On the other hand, Consumers not that comfortable:

    • The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to 57.5 for the week ending on April 22 after a reading of 58.1 a week ago.
    • The State of the Economy index increased to 57.9 from 57.3.
    • The Personal Finance index dropped to 64.3 from 65.9.
    • The Buying Climate index retreated to 50.2 from 51.1. 

    Nothing terrible though.

    Watch List Notes:

    ABX still cheap but strengthening.  

    ALK still stupidly cheap:

    BBBY fire sale:

    BX retesting bottom:

    CBI still cheap but should wait for merger:

    F – Still cheap:

    FNSR – crazy low:

    Finisar Is Oversold, Morgan Stanley Says In Upgrade

    Apple Seen Sticking With Finisar, Which May Get An Overhaul

    FTR – earnings next week (5/1):

    GE – At this price, it's my stock of the year:

    GILD cheap again:

    GNC still cheap:

    GPRO – Earnings 5/3

    LB – Still my real Trade of the Year (HBI was not even on the Watch List):

    NLY – Really, $10.35?

    SKT – Stupidly cheap.  If I had $2Bn laying around, I'd buy them…

    WHR – Holding up comparatively well but in a sector that's getting killed:

    Q1 Highlights



    Whirlpool delivered adjusted earnings per share of $2.81, lagging the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.92. However, its bottom line rose 12% from $2.50 per share earned in the year-ago quarter. Bottom-line results gained from smooth progress on its global cost-based price increases and fixed cost reduction initiatives, which also boosted adjusted EBIT.

    Going forward, the company remains committed to its balanced capital-allocation approach. Consequently, it expects to continue buying back shares in 2018 while hoping to return more value to shareholders through its recently raised quarterly dividend.



    On Apr 16, Whirlpool declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.15 per share, marking an increase of 5 cents from the previous rate of $1.10 per share. This dividend is payable on June 15, to shareholders with record as of May 18.

    Following the not-so-impressive first quarter, Whirlpool slightly lowered its GAAP earnings per share forecast while retaining adjusted earnings view for 2018. It continues to envision adjusted earnings per share of $14.50-$15.50. On a GAAP basis, it now anticipates earnings in a range of $12.30-$13.30 per share compared with $12.45-$13.45 per share expected earlier.

     

    So plenty of things to buy but no urgency as the value stocks don't seem to be going anywhere.  Only about a dozen Watch list stocks have gotten away from us so far.

    Speaking of getting away – Dollar blasted higher all of a sudden:


  11. Phil, This huge pop : End of month finger painting the numbers?!


  12. Phil / CMG – I have the following position….  CMG at 388

    Long 10X Jan '20 300 Call ( 58)

    Short 10X Jan '20 350 Call (40)  

    Can you suggest an adjustment here?

     


  13. Issue/Pat – I think people are generally well-balanced so not much to talk about.  Waiting to break the range one way or the other but, otherwise, as I said last week – it's a good time to cash out and take a vacation.

    Dow up 200 now, Nas up 1.3%.  /NG just popped.  

    GILD/Jabob – I still like them but as a long-term value play – I don't see anything exciting in the near-term.  At $95Bn ($73) they should steady out at $8.5Bn in earnings so they'll look more attractive once they prove their downsizing is over (was $13.5Bn in 2016 and just $5Bn last year).  The assumption is revenues stay around $21Bn and margins stay around 40%.  Operating margin was 54% last year, they just took a lot of charges which are, hopefully, behind them.

    We do not have GILD in the LTP so let's sell 5 2020 $70 puts for $8.50 ($4,250) to collect our monthly rent and remind us to keep an eye on them for a possible bull call spread. 

    At the moment, the 2020 $60 ($17)/$75 ($9.20) bull call spread is just $7.80 so 10 long spreads ($7,800)  and 5 short puts would give you a net $3,550 entry on the $15,000 spread that's almost all in the money and then you could sell 3 July $80s for $1.10 ($330) using 85 out of 631 days and even if you just do that once a quarter – it's another $2,000+ towards the trade.  

    End of month/Jasu – Maybe.  Seems a bit early for it though.

    CMG/Batman – Congratulations, you're going to get the full $50 – try to learn to be happy!  I think $420 is way overdone as they only earned $2.13/share so we're at 50x now.  As usual, people are extrapolating the growth to silly levels.   I know you have bank so consider this:

    • Sell 10 2020 $300 calls for $155 ($155,000) 
    • Roll 10 2020 $350 calls at $120 ($120,000) to 20 short Sept $380 calls at $62 ($124,000) 
    • Buy 20 2020 $350 ($120)/$450 ($70) bull call spreads for $50 ($100,000) 

    So you are netting $59,000 off the table – more than your spread max and now you are hoping CMG pulls back a bit by Sept or you'll just roll the short calls along (the Jan $400s are $60) while your $200,000 spread creeps into the money.  Obviously, you may end up having to DD on the longs if CMG keeps going up so you might need that $59,000 again but that's the way I'd play it.

    If CMG does go lower and the short calls expire, whatever net you have left in the spread is a bonus.


  14. Dollar ended up capping that rally, we'll see where things end up.  


  15. Hi all.. I have been watching the following few names, some for divident, others simply to low to ignore.. Any views ?

    T (divident)

    SCG (scana, merger with Dominion in question)

    ACIA (it really fell hard and has been holding for a few days now..)

    LPL (even has a small div)

    BGG (fell hard today)


  16. MVEN still cheap:

    NFLDraftScout.com Moves to Maven Coalition, Just in Time for the Draft

    Previously:

    Maven, HubPages and Say Media Unite to Form Largest Independent Media Coalition in North America, Reaching over 90 Million Readers

    This is why I went to Whistler.  PSW Investments is working with these guys and Philstockworld will be a content partner.  It's not a BS penny stock – these guys are really doing this stuff.  

    They are going to do a dilutive raise in a few months but I like the plan.

    PSW Investments will be getting some stock and, so far, I bought 5,000 shares for the kids @ $1.45. 

    T/State – I always like them in the low $30s, that usually puts a floor in.  Also not in the LTP so let's sell 10 of the 2020 $33 puts for $4.35 ($4,350) as we'd be happy to get assigned 1,000 shares at net $28.65 and then sell 10 2020 $30 calls for about $3,000 and more puts for $3,000 to drop our basis to $22.65/26.65. 

    So, the gist of the play is we're willing to own 2,000 shares of T at $26.65 but step one is selling the 2020 $33 puts for $4,350.

    • We are committing 1/2 an allocation block to the initial trade (if put to us at net $26,500) but not really as we certainly don't see T going BK so really we're not even risking $6,500 (T at $20) on the put play, which is why we don't count them against our allocations unless we convert or take an assignment. 
    • If T goes up, it's simply $4,350 in our pocket for considering the play and if it goes down, say to $25, the delta on the $33 puts is 0.50 so we'd lose roughly $3,500 if we cut and run. 
    • That's our risk/reward on these kinds of trades – if it goes our way, we get $4,350 for doing nothing and, if it doesn't, we get T cheaply!  

    Other stocks/State:

    SCG – It's an all-stock merger, I wouldn't touch it.  D is not a bad company but all the utilities are struggling.  They don't have a business model that anticipates losing customers and every time you pass a solar panel – that's a customer they've lost.   D is better than most because they have moved away from production towards more distribution and I don't understand why they are backtracking to merge with SCG – so not for me.

    ACIA is down with all the opticals (see FNSR above) but it's twice as expensive as FNSR so I have no interest. 

    LPL – It's a tricky ADR so I avoid them.  Very hard to get a handle on actual earnings or what percentage of those earning go to the ADR shares.  In Won, they make about 28Bn of them in revenues and probably drop 1Bn to the bottom line but the Won is 0.000926 – worse than GreenCoins!  Anyway, not worth doing all the math or reading the Korean news to figure out TV margins.  

    BGG – Where are these picks from?  "Dying Technology Investor"???  Why this company trades at 32x earnings is beyond me but they were trading at 50x earnings so I guess they look like a bargain now:


  17. Oops, on LPL, that may be Trillions of Won, makes more sense but still – gives me a headache so no thanks!  


  18. Thanks Phil., That's what I was looking for. BGG (GASOLINE vs. Electrical) needed this confirmation..



  19. The US Military Funded a Study on Climate Change, And Got Unnerving Results





  20. Hi Phil, Is webinar getting delayed? Thanks.


  21. Same question here – re: webinar status?


  22. Web link from this morning not working.


  23. I'm wondering too


  24. Link worked, says waiting for Phil


  25. Nothing on-still waiting. Glitch?


  26. For me web link worked and logged into webinar. It says "waiting for Phil Davis' to start the webinar. As it is not regular Wednesday time, probably Phil forgot. If someone can reach Phil offline that would be great..


  27. I emailed Greg and asked if there was a problem, or if Phil forgot. Still waiting.


  28. Also, I sent an SMS to Phil's cell number..


  29. Webinar/Ayyaps – Son of a bitch, I forgot!  

    Sorry, got on a conf call and wasn't even thinking.

    I'll start it at 2pm.


  30. Works for me…I was running late… :)


  31. Late I can understand, why were you running?


  32. In the Webinar for the LTP:

    • We have 5 MO 2020 $65 puts we sold for $10, now $14 – those are fine.
    • We are going to buy 10 2020 $50 calls for $7.95 (7,950) 
    • We are going to sell 10 2020 $65 calls for $2.50 ($2,500)

    That will net us into the spread for $450 (using the original put price, it's a $1,550 credit if you do it from scratch) and, when MO recovers a bit we'll sell a few short calls.  I'm also thrilled to roll the short puts to 2x something lower and roll down and double down on the spread if MO drops below $50 but I super-doubt it.

    Upside potential is a very nice $14,550.  


  33. Made a quick $170 shorting indexes in the Webinar but no major pullbacks.

    We added a long on /SI at $16.57.

    /NQ at 6,666.

    Dollar stubbornly strong at 91.40.


  34. CMG $425 – up 25%! 

    FB with a big comeback too, up $15.

    BIDU already up, not waiting for earnings.

    AMZN making $25Bn daily moves:


  35. ORLY – hard to believe can make a jump like this..


  36. amzn over 1600 again.. unreal


  37. T – amongst the dispossessed…


  38. CMG – up 24+%  what a world.


  39. Once again, shorting AMZN seems like a fools game!


  40. Glad we didn't short AMZN!  Now up $100Bn+ for the day.   $1,621 because they made $3.27 per share so x 4 is $13!, p/e just over 124.  Web services flew up 50% to $5.44Bn, that's where all the profits came from, of course.  

    MSFT did $7.9Bn on the cloud but only 17% growth so AMZN is catching up?  Azure up 93%!  Pesonal computing up 13% – that's a surprise.  Windows up 4%, Xbox up 24%.  MSFT making $4 share (1/3 AMZN) yet is priced at 1/16th AMZN's price.  

    AMZN/StJ – Well at least I learned that lesson after being burned a few times!  

    AMZN goosing /NQ to 6,736 – up about 65 points after hours.  

    ORLY/Scott – Things are getting crazy again.  


  41. BIDU announced…up 11% AH. 1Q Revs $3.33 bln (up 31% YoY)./ EPS $2.60 vs cons $1.60….  All fundamental metrics – active customers and revenue per active customer up YoY.   2Q guidance $3.97-  $4.1 bln  vs cons $3.85 billion…. 


  42. EXPE – I have heard Winston talk about this earlier… stock up 9% AH, hopefully you have benefited. 


  43. phil—do you think amzn holds these ah gains tomorrow?


  44. Qualcomm CEO expects Apple battle to resolve this year

    Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) CEO Steve Mollenkopf tells CNBC he expects to settle the ongoing royalty legal battle with Apple by the end of the year.

    Mollenkopf says the case has “legal milestones” this summer that will put pressure on both companies to settle and a decision “either through the courts, or in the way that I think everybody would prefer, in a settlement, here and before the end of the year if we’re lucky.” 

    During its earnings call yesterday, Qualcomm announced it would start capping the price of its licensing revenue, which is calculated as a percentage of a smartphone’s selling price. The company will now cap the phone price in the calculation at $400, which is notably lower than premium smartphone models like the iPhone X. 


  45. Phil / CMG -

    thanks for the feedback earlier….  I agree with the 450 price target and taking some short calls to help with the aggressive BCS on any pullbacks.  They are planning a business update this quarter and I think this will solidify their plans.   The new CEO has hired new marketing and HR execs and indicated he was getting lots of leeway from the founder.   I'm sure he's will be shifting away from the fresh at all costs ( where they have exposures to contamination) and rationalize where it makes sense.  This will drop costs and minimize some of this risk.   He's raised prices already and is planning to open 120 to 140 ( I think) this year.   He will also be doing some targeted marketing / social media things.   they have a good product they just need to execute.   Thanks, Again…


  46. Learner – In the travel space my choice has always been PCLN (now BKNG after changing the ticker symbol) rather than EXPE. BKNG reports earnings after hours on 05/09/18 and its price movement after earnings tend to be like a bullet train – you just never know which direction it is coming at you. Current option pricing is forecasting a $140 move, with BKNG trading at $2,112. I gave up trading PCLN a while back recognizing that trading $2,000+ stocks is only suitable for a certain kind of animal – I'm just not that kind.


  47. 7 striking facts about the money tech companies are making





  48. The 53 most stunning lines from Donald Trump’s ‘Fox & Friends’ interview


  49. Good morning! 

    Futures down a bit and Nas is flat, which is huge disappointment given last night's earnings boost. 

    I'm still working on the premise that earnings can't possibly be as good as the market is pricing in but it may take another week or two before we correct.

    AMZN/Jabob – Well they are raising 100M Prime users $20 so there's $2Bn added to the bottom line…

    QCOM/Batman – That's a big win for AAPL.

    CMG/Batman – Good product but still a restaurant and overpriced as such.

    BKNG/Winston – What a monster that company is!  

    Don't forget, GDP at 8:30:

    BOJ removes inflation target date

    • The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady overnight and removed a phrase on the time frame for achieving its 2% inflation target.
    • The goal has been postponed six times since it was set in 2013, when BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda took office.
    • Leaving policy unchanged also shows the bank's willingness to stick with its radical easing program while the Fed continues to hike rates.

    Investors watching historic Korea summit

    • Kim Jong-un has become the first North Korean leader since the 1950-53 Korean War to set foot in South Korea, holding a historic summit today with President Moon Jae-in.
    • Beyond the geopolitics, many investors are paying attention to the talks as South Korea is critical to the global supply chain and many manufacturers are located close to the border.
    • Update: The two sides have agreed to end a seven-decade war and pursue the "complete denuclearization" of the peninsula.

    UK economic growth weakest since 2012

    • Britain's economy grew by just 0.1% in the first quarter, its weakest pace since 2012, amid heavy snow in late February and early March, dubbed "the Beast from the East," which was already known to have hurt some businesses.
    • The scale of the slowdown may unsettle the BOE, which meets next week to consider raising interest rates for only the second time since the 2008 financial crisis.
    • Airbus (OTCPK:EADSY) shares are down 1.2% in France after Q1 profit was hit by engine delays, while the planemaker cut A330 output.
    • RBS -0.3% premarket as first-quarter earnings more than tripled, but loan growth struggled.
    • Sanofi (NYSE:SNY) is 2.2% lower after missing forecasts due to weak performance at the company's diabetes unit.
    • A Eurogroup meeting today in Sofia, Bulgaria is expected to discuss Greece's key demand of debt relief and the conditions it must fulfill as the country rushes to end its third bailout program in August.
    • The main goal is for a debt deal to be agreed upon in order to satisfy the IMF and help bridge the gap with Northern European countries that want relief measures linked to strict supervision.
    • NAFTA talks will resume this morning for a fourth consecutive day as Mexico said a new agreement was "reasonably close," but talks to arrive at a finishing point were "not easy."
    • Complicating matters, the Trump administration has threatened to impose sanctions on Canadian and Mexican steel and aluminum on May 1 if not enough progress has been made on the deal.

    Wynn CEO faces Massachusetts regulators

    • Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN) CEO Matt Maddox is set to appear before Massachusetts gambling regulators today to highlight the company's restructured board and changed culture in the wake of sexual misconduct allegations against founder Steve Wynn.
    • The meeting is expected to focus on whether Wynn should still be legally connected to a $2.5B casino project the company is building outside Boston.

    GoPro CEO misses bonus, makes $1 in 2017

    • GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO) CEO Nick Woodman missed out on a potential $1.2M bonus for 2017 after a disastrous year that saw weak holiday sales, job cuts and a withdrawal from the camera drone market.
    • That left him with a "nominal salary of $1 and no target 2018 cash bonus" for this year, according to the company's annual report.
    • GoPro shares have fallen by more than a third YTD.