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Will We Hold It Wednesday – NYSE 12,800 Edition

Coming back or just bouncing?  

12,800 is the Must Hold line on the NYSE, meaning it's very bearish to be below that on the broad index and we finished the day yesterday at 12,638 and, so far, this morning's bounce isn't going to fix things.  Back on May 26th, when the NYSE last tested 12,800, my notes from the Morning Report were:

It's still all about the NYSE and whether it's over or under that 12,800 line but I remember a time when the Dow and the NYSE would run completely neck and neck.  That has gone completely out the Window as the headline index has been jammed 17% higher since Donald Trump was put in power by the USSR so thank you Putin – I guess…

The NYSE is right where we expected the market to be given that tax cuts, repatriation of capital and buybacks that have boosted the indexes over the past year plus.  On the other hand, the Dow is silly and the Nasdaq is sillier and we're back to a 1998/1999 market, where Fundamentals don't matter (for now) and people are paying ridiculous forward multiples for stocks in the belief that this party is never going to stop and there's no piper to be paid.  Is this time different?  Don't bet on it!  

The broad-market index has been trading in the lower part of a very tight range since February and, of course, the Dow is red for the year so the bulls are, at the moment, left with the over-priced Nasdaq and the narrowly-focused Russell 2000 Indexes to hang their hats on and we're still expecting a 10% correction in the Nasdaq, from 7,200 to 6,500 – before the summer ends.  That's why we haven't been jumping in to buy things – we don't think these little "sales" are bargains at all.

As you can see, the Nasdaq is way up in its range, over our 7,200 mark but we're not putting on the 7,500 hats just yet as that requires Apple (AAPL) to punch up over $1,000,000,000,000 in valuation – and we don't think that's going to happen without a fight and, as I mentioned yesterday – the chance of Tesla (TSLA) being exposed as a complete disaster is far more likely – and that will cause a huge rethink of all Nasdaq valuations.   

Congratulations to all who followed us on yesterday's Tesla short from the Morning Report, which was (for our STP):

  • Sell 3 TSLA July $380 calls for $18 ($5,400) 
  • Buy 4 TSLA July $435 ($70)/$400 ($42) bear put spreads at $28 ($11,200)

Despite what we considered very obviously bad news for TSLA, the July $380 calls opened at $17.50 and finished the day at $10.85 ($3,255) for a gain of $1,995 and the $435/400 bear put spread filled at $88/56, which was the same net $28, albeit at higher prices and that closed at $84.44/50.68, which is net $30.44 so $13,504 is net $10,249 which is up $4,449 (77%) in just one day!  See, we don't have to make risky day trades to make perfectly good money in a single day…

Today's day trade idea is Oil (/CL) with the Futures back up to $65.90 this morning and we'll take a short below the $66 mark with tight stops above into inventories, looking for a quick dip.  Last night's API report showed an 800,000 barrel build in Oil and a 2.1Mb buid in Gasoline and a 750,000 barrel build in Distillates and oil wasn't as bad as feared so it shot up but that's silly and today is the last day of trading for the July contracts and, as of yesterday's close, there were still 27M open contracts for delivery and could you imagine the disaster if they actually accepted delivery of 27M more barrels into the glut we already have?  

So we expect some dumping into the close and then there's Friday's OPEC meeting where Iran doesn't want to produce more oil but the Saudis and Russians want Trump to look good so they are going to do the puppet President a solid and increase production with the added benefit of collecting 30M more barrels a month at $60+/barrel = $1.8Bn and who doesn't love $1.8Bn – we know Trump does! 

Another thing the President loves is child-snatching and the Administration has been working overtime to justify what Wikipedia now lists as CONCENTRATION CAMPS for children that Team Trump has set up in order to further shame our once-proud Nation on the World stage.  Michael Fuchs, who was the Deputy Secretary for Pacific Affairs, says we are doing as much damage to America's reputation now as we did with the Abu Ghraib tortures under Bush only the difference is that even Bush stopped things IMMEDIATELY when they came to light while Team Trump is circling the wagons and doubling down. 

Remember when this country had morals and stood for something?   Ah, good times.

Unfortunately, at the risk of being censored by Seeking Alpha, I'm going to have to conclude today's Report with an excerpt from Milton Mayer's excellent book "They Thought They Were Free", which is about the rise of the Third Reich in Germany from 1933 on and how the country slowly but surely went from a proud Democracy to a facist dictatorship – simply by putting up with one atrocity (like this) after another:

But Then It Was Too Late

"What no one seemed to notice," said a colleague of mine, a philologist, "was the ever widening gap, after 1933, between the government and the people. Just think how very wide this gap was to begin with, here in Germany. And it became always wider. You know, it doesn’t make people close to their government to be told that this is a people’s government, a true democracy, or to be enrolled in civilian defense, or even to vote. All this has little, really nothing, to do with knowing one is governing.

"What happened here was the gradual habituation of the people, little by little, to being governed by surprise; to receiving decisions deliberated in secret; to believing that the situation was so complicated that the government had to act on information which the people could not understand, or so dangerous that, even if the people could not understand it, it could not be released because of national security. And their sense of identification with Hitler, their trust in him, made it easier to widen this gap and reassured those who would otherwise have worried about it.

"This separation of government from people, this widening of the gap, took place so gradually and so insensibly, each step disguised (perhaps not even intentionally) as a temporary emergency measure or associated with true patriotic allegiance or with real social purposes. And all the crises and reforms (real reforms, too) so occupied the people that they did not see the slow motion underneath, of the whole process of government growing remoter and remoter.

"You will understand me when I say that my Middle High German was my life. It was all I cared about. I was a scholar, a specialist. Then, suddenly, I was plunged into all the new activity, as the university was drawn into the new situation; meetings, conferences, interviews, ceremonies, and, above all, papers to be filled out, reports, bibliographies, lists, questionnaires. And on top of that were the demands in the community, the things in which one had to, was ‘expected to’ participate that had not been there or had not been important before. It was all rigmarole, of course, but it consumed all one’s energies, coming on top of the work one really wanted to do. You can see how easy it was, then, not to think about fundamental things. One had no time."

"Those," I said, "are the words of my friend the baker. ‘One had no time to think. There was so much going on.’"

"Your friend the baker was right," said my colleague. "The dictatorship, and the whole process of its coming into being, was above all diverting. It provided an excuse not to think for people who did not want to think anyway. I do not speak of your ‘little men,’ your baker and so on; I speak of my colleagues and myself, learned men, mind you. Most of us did not want to think about fundamental things and never had. There was no need to. Nazism gave us some dreadful, fundamental things to think about—we were decent people—and kept us so busy with continuous changes and ‘crises’ and so fascinated, yes, fascinated, by the machinations of the ‘national enemies,’ without and within, that we had no time to think about these dreadful things that were growing, little by little, all around us. Unconsciously, I suppose, we were grateful. Who wants to think?

"To live in this process is absolutely not to be able to notice it—please try to believe me—unless one has a much greater degree of political awareness, acuity, than most of us had ever had occasion to develop. Each step was so small, so inconsequential, so well explained or, on occasion, ‘regretted,’ that, unless one were detached from the whole process from the beginning, unless one understood what the whole thing was in principle, what all these ‘little measures’ that no ‘patriotic German’ could resent must some day lead to, one no more saw it developing from day to day than a farmer in his field sees the corn growing. One day it is over his head.

"How is this to be avoided, among ordinary men, even highly educated ordinary men? Frankly, I do not know. I do not see, even now. Many, many times since it all happened I have pondered that pair of great maxims, Principiis obsta and Finem respice—‘Resist the beginnings’ and ‘Consider the end.’ But one must foresee the end in order to resist, or even see, the beginnings. One must foresee the end clearly and certainly and how is this to be done, by ordinary men or even by extraordinary men? Things might have. And everyone counts on that might.

"Your ‘little men,’ your Nazi friends, were not against National Socialism in principle. Men like me, who were, are the greater offenders, not because we knew better (that would be too much to say) but because we sensed better. Pastor Niemöller spoke for the thousands and thousands of men like me when he spoke (too modestly of himself) and said that, when the Nazis attacked the Communists, he was a little uneasy, but, after all, he was not a Communist, and so he did nothing; and then they attacked the Socialists, and he was a little uneasier, but, still, he was not a Socialist, and he did nothing; and then the schools, the press, the Jews, and so on, and he was always uneasier, but still he did nothing. And then they attacked the Church, and he was a Churchman, and he did something—but then it was too late."

"Yes," I said.

"You see," my colleague went on, "one doesn’t see exactly where or how to move. Believe me, this is true. Each act, each occasion, is worse than the last, but only a little worse. You wait for the next and the next. You wait for one great shocking occasion, thinking that others, when such a shock comes, will join with you in resisting somehow. You don’t want to act, or even talk, alone; you don’t want to ‘go out of your way to make trouble.’ Why not?—Well, you are not in the habit of doing it. And it is not just fear, fear of standing alone, that restrains you; it is also genuine uncertainty.

"Uncertainty is a very important factor, and, instead of decreasing as time goes on, it grows. Outside, in the streets, in the general community, ‘everyone’ is happy. One hears no protest, and certainly sees none. You know, in France or Italy there would be slogans against the government painted on walls and fences; in Germany, outside the great cities, perhaps, there is not even this. In the university community, in your own community, you speak privately to your colleagues, some of whom certainly feel as you do; but what do they say? They say, ‘It’s not so bad’ or ‘You’re seeing things’ or ‘You’re an alarmist.’

"And you are an alarmist. You are saying that this must lead to this, and you can’t prove it. These are the beginnings, yes; but how do you know for sure when you don’t know the end, and how do you know, or even surmise, the end? On the one hand, your enemies, the law, the regime, the Party, intimidate you. On the other, your colleagues pooh-pooh you as pessimistic or even neurotic. You are left with your close friends, who are, naturally, people who have always thought as you have.

"But your friends are fewer now. Some have drifted off somewhere or submerged themselves in their work. You no longer see as many as you did at meetings or gatherings. Informal groups become smaller; attendance drops off in little organizations, and the organizations themselves wither. Now, in small gatherings of your oldest friends, you feel that you are talking to yourselves, that you are isolated from the reality of things. This weakens your confidence still further and serves as a further deterrent to—to what? It is clearer all the time that, if you are going to do anything, you must make an occasion to do it, and then you are obviously a troublemaker. So you wait, and you wait.

"But the one great shocking occasion, when tens or hundreds or thousands will join with you, never comes. That’s the difficulty. If the last and worst act of the whole regime had come immediately after the first and smallest, thousands, yes, millions would have been sufficiently shocked—if, let us say, the gassing of the Jews in ’43 had come immediately after the ‘German Firm’ stickers on the windows of non-Jewish shops in ’33. But of course this isn’t the way it happens. In between come all the hundreds of little steps, some of them imperceptible, each of them preparing you not to be shocked by the next. Step C is not so much worse than Step B, and, if you did not make a stand at Step B, why should you at Step C? And so on to Step D.

"And one day, too late, your principles, if you were ever sensible of them, all rush in upon you. The burden of self-deception has grown too heavy, and some minor incident, in my case my little boy, hardly more than a baby, saying ‘Jewish swine,’ collapses it all at once, and you see that everything, everything, has changed and changed completely under your nose. The world you live in—your nation, your people—is not the world you were born in at all. The forms are all there, all untouched, all reassuring, the houses, the shops, the jobs, the mealtimes, the visits, the concerts, the cinema, the holidays. But the spirit, which you never noticed because you made the lifelong mistake of identifying it with the forms, is changed. Now you live in a world of hate and fear, and the people who hate and fear do not even know it themselves; when everyone is transformed, no one is transformed. Now you live in a system which rules without responsibility even to God. The system itself could not have intended this in the beginning, but in order to sustain itself it was compelled to go all the way.

"You have gone almost all the way yourself. Life is a continuing process, a flow, not a succession of acts and events at all. It has flowed to a new level, carrying you with it, without any effort on your part. On this new level you live, you have been living more comfortably every day, with new morals, new principles. You have accepted things you would not have accepted five years ago, a year ago, things that your father, even in Germany, could not have imagined.

"Suddenly it all comes down, all at once. You see what you are, what you have done, or, more accurately, what you haven’t done (for that was all that was required of most of us: that we do nothing). You remember those early meetings of your department in the university when, if one had stood, others would have stood, perhaps, but no one stood. A small matter, a matter of hiring this man or that, and you hired this one rather than that. You remember everything now, and your heart breaks. Too late. You are compromised beyond repair.

"What then? You must then shoot yourself. A few did. Or ‘adjust’ your principles. Many tried, and some, I suppose, succeeded; not I, however. Or learn to live the rest of your life with your shame. This last is the nearest there is, under the circumstances, to heroism: shame. Many Germans became this poor kind of hero, many more, I think, than the world knows or cares to know."

I said nothing. I thought of nothing to say.

"I can tell you," my colleague went on, "of a man in Leipzig, a judge. He was not a Nazi, except nominally, but he certainly wasn’t an anti-Nazi. He was just—a judge. In ’42 or ’43, early ’43, I think it was, a Jew was tried before him in a case involving, but only incidentally, relations with an ‘Aryan’ woman. This was ‘race injury,’ something the Party was especially anxious to punish. In the case at bar, however, the judge had the power to convict the man of a ‘nonracial’ offense and send him to an ordinary prison for a very long term, thus saving him from Party ‘processing’ which would have meant concentration camp or, more probably, deportation and death. But the man was innocent of the ‘nonracial’ charge, in the judge’s opinion, and so, as an honorable judge, he acquitted him. Of course, the Party seized the Jew as soon as he left the courtroom."

"And the judge?"

"Yes, the judge. He could not get the case off his conscience—a case, mind you, in which he had acquitted an innocent man. He thought that he should have convicted him and saved him from the Party, but how could he have convicted an innocent man? The thing preyed on him more and more, and he had to talk about it, first to his family, then to his friends, and then to acquaintances. (That’s how I heard about it.) After the ’44 Putschthey arrested him. After that, I don’t know."

I said nothing.

"Once the war began," my colleague continued, "resistance, protest, criticism, complaint, all carried with them a multiplied likelihood of the greatest punishment. Mere lack of enthusiasm, or failure to show it in public, was ‘defeatism.’ You assumed that there were lists of those who would be ‘dealt with’ later, after the victory. Goebbels was very clever here, too. He continually promised a ‘victory orgy’ to ‘take care of’ those who thought that their ‘treasonable attitude’ had escaped notice. And he meant it; that was not just propaganda. And that was enough to put an end to all uncertainty.

"Once the war began, the government could do anything ‘necessary’ to win it; so it was with the ‘final solution of the Jewish problem,’ which the Nazis always talked about but never dared undertake, not even the Nazis, until war and its ‘necessities’ gave them the knowledge that they could get away with it. The people abroad who thought that war against Hitler would help the Jews were wrong. And the people in Germany who, once the war had begun, still thought of complaining, protesting, resisting, were betting on Germany’s losing the war. It was a long bet. Not many made it."

You either condemn or condone – there is no "silent" middle groud and SHAME on those who say "Never Again" but then hide behind "guidlines" to stop others from standing their ground!  


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  1. GE to be delisted from the DOW where are they going Over the counter?

  2. HMNY looking to open down big time!

  3. hmny ouch!

  4. Something strange in the housing market:

    What else might be contributing to this divergence in housing supplies? Several possibilities include the following: First, demand for affordable housing may have independently become more robust over the past few years because of improved household balance sheets and aging millennials beginning to consider homeownership. Second, current owners of lower- and middle-tier housing may be unwilling or unable to trade up to new, high-priced homes, creating gridlock in the market. Third, investors purchased homes in large numbers following the recession. Because rental demand has strengthened since 2007, those investors may be disinclined to sell right now. Fourth, the stronger rental market may have also prompted homebuilders to shift construction from single-family homes to multifamily units.

  5. GE/Yodi, GE will no longer be included in the index, they will still trade NYSE

  6. GE 12.75 a real black spot in my Portfolio. Yes Mike but where is this stock going to? I always compare it with Siemens!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Possible my mistake,

  7. Hmny/Phil- I didn’t double down from the portfolio review will you still DD now

  8. Good Morning.

  9. They are asking $0.45 for the 0.50 strike HMNY 2020 puts! Not a big vote of confidence there!

  10. And $2.05 for the 2 strike puts lol… And then some carzy numbers after that! Priced like people are looking for them to go BK!

  11. I read they are voting on. a reverse split at shareholder meeting

  12. HMNY

    They were backing that CRAP money Gotti with John Travolta.  In addition, they are looking to reverse split the shares (1-2, 1-250?).  They also want to increase the shares from 500m to 2B!

  13. GE up???

  14. Good morning!

    That pop didn't last long on the Dow but /ES still up there and /NQ 7,300 so all is well(ish) but NYSE still short of the mark so we'll have to see.

    Big Chart – no surprise to see /YM bouncing off the 50 dma at 24,700 so down from 25,400 is 700 so 150-point weak bounce is 24,850 and strong is 25,000 will be strong now.  Also watch /NQ 7,106 as even losing the 20 dma when you are that high is a bad sign.  Nowhere near it now though.

    HMNY/StJ – I'm surprised Gotti didn't already kill them on Monday.  Was apparently a complete disaster as their first release.  

    Housing/StJ – That's because new homes are being sold cheaper than existing home owners can afford to sell them for.  Also, mix has shifted towards multi-family apartments from single-family homes.

    GE/Yodi – In a multi-year turnaround.  Getting out of the Dow will be good for them.

    HMNY/Dave – After Gotti I want to see what happens before adding to the misery though I would still DD if we hadn't already if your cost basis is over $1.

    0.45/StJ – Well that may be worth switching to with 0.25 in premium and, even better, just 0.05 risk.  We can't be more screwed on the short puts we have, so no harm in switching and limiting our loss.

    HMNY/DC – This is the major dilution event we expected.

  15. Good Morning, All!

    Join us for the weekly webinar, today at 1pm!

  16. Phil GE I hope you are right!!!

  17. Silver hit 16.24 this morning. USD is near Nov 2017 highs (a bit higher)so maybe worth a punt.

    Also if everything falls apart and Trump becomes emperor of the world then you might want some metal in your 401 :-)

  18. Headline on oil is a draw but net nothing is not bullish.  Just have on short @ $65.78 and would add another if it goes higher.  

    IA Petroleum Inventories

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude -5.9M barrels vs. -2.1M consensus, -4.1M last week.
    • Gasoline +3.3M barrels vs. +0.2M consensus, -2.3M last week.
    • Distillates +2.7M barrels vs. -0.2M consensus, -2.1M last week.
    • Futures +1.02% to $65.56.

  19. /SI/Malsg – $16.25 is a good long entry spot.

    Oil turned back down fast (to fast to DD).  Locking in $250 now.

  20. Picking up a couple of /NQ shorts at the 7,300 line with tight stops above.

  21. HMNY; saw an article today AMC theaters is coming out with their own direct competitor to moviepass, $19.95 and you can see up to 12 movies a month or something along those lines? 

    That could be driving HMNY down as well?

  22. AMC/Hmny/Phil- yeah are you concern of competition copy the business model?

  23. Why is getting out of the Dow good for GE?

  24. Trump threatens $450B in China tariffs

    • President Trump has threatened a further $200B in tariffs on Chinese products should Beijing hit back again, bringing to $450B the potential amount that could be targeted.
    • That sum approaches the roughly $500B in total annual Chinese exports to the U.S.
    • As the trade war unfolds, the Trump administration is also working on measures that protect agriculture and other critical industries from retaliatory tariffs being threatened by China.

    Chinese markets rebound as PBOC acts

    • Calling for investors to "stay calm and rational," China's central bank injected a total of about $37B into its financial system after the Shanghai Composite dropped to near two-year lows.
    • According to the PBOC, this will "ensure liquidity and reasonable stability" amid trade threats from the U.S.
    • It also recommended a reserve ratio requirement cut as mainland companies pledged to share buybacks to help stabilize stock prices.

    Cryptos dip amid another exchange hack

    • Cryptocurrencies fell overnight after another South Korean exchange, called Bithumb, was hacked, following last week's heist at Coinrail.
    • This time around some more popular coins were taken, including Ripple, with hackers looting about 35B won ($32M).
    • While the stolen coins will be covered by Bithumb's reserves, the announcement renews concerns about the safety of crypto trading venues.
    • Bitcoin (BTC-USD-2%, Ether (ETH-USD-2.2%, Ripple (XRP-USD) flat, Bitcoin Cash (BCH-USD-2.9%, Litecoin (LTC-USD-2.4%

    OPEC ready for battle in Vienna

    • "Oil is not a weapon – it is not a political tool to be used against some countries, producers or consumers," Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh declared, following tweets from President Trump that sought to hold OPEC accountable for an upswing in oil prices.
    • Ahead of a closely watched meeting in Vienna, Saudi Arabia and Russia have been pushing the group to loosen its supply controls -  introduced in January 2017 – while Iran, Iraq and Venezuela are lobbying against any changes.
    • Crude futures +0.8% to $65.39/bbl

    Canadian Senate backs legalization of recreational pot

    • Reuters reports that the Canadian Senate voted 52-29 yesterday in favor of legalizing the recreational use of marijuana nationwide, the first G7 country to do so. The new law, expected to be enacted in the next 8-12 weeks, will allow possession, home growing and sales for adults.
    • A couple of weeks ago, the Canadian Senate voted 56-30 in favor of legalization but the legislation had yet to be blessed by the House of Commons.

    Tesla 2018 Model 3 production over 30K: Business Insider

    • Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has produced about 30K Model 3 vehicles this year, according to a report from Business Insider that relies on internal documents.
    • The documents suggest that the EV automaker has made about 6K Model 3s this month, although the new GA4 assembly line has pushed through less then 100 Model 3s.
    • CEO Elon Musk set a goal for Tesla to produce Model 3s at a rate of 5K per week by the end of this month.
    • On the investor battleground, shares of Tesla are up 1.26% in premarket trading to $357.00 after shedding 4.92% yesterday.

    GE sticks to plan despite Dow boot

    • "We are focused on executing against the plan we've laid out to improve GE's performance," General Electric (NYSE:GEsaid in a statement after getting booted from the Dow – and replaced with Walgreens. "Today's announcement does nothing to change those commitments or our focus in creating a stronger, simpler GE."
    • The industrial conglomerate has been the worst performing stock in the index – where it was an original member in 1896 and a member continuously since 1907 - falling more than 55% over the last 12 months, and more than 25% YTD.
    • Previously: WBA into Dow, replacing original member GE (Jun. 19 2018)

    Sports betting roundup: D.C. shoulders in, Mississippi gears up

    • Height Securities analyst Stefanie Miller thinks Congress is unlikely to act on sports betting despite some noise being made by retiring Senator Orrin Hatch. The House Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime, Terrorism, Homeland Security, and Investigations also has a hearing scheduled for June 26 to discuss the topic.
    • "Congress will likely continue deferring to the the states on sports betting rather than wade into the complexities of endorsing-by-way-of-legislation an industry that many believe has negative consequences for its consumers," she writes.
    • Hatch isn't seen having the political capital amid a fractured GOP caucus to guide federal sports betting legislation through the Senate.
    • Outside of D.C., things are moving forward in Mississippi for sports betting. The state's gaming commission meets tomorrow to discuss the final adoption of sports betting regulations. Bets in Mississippi could start as early as July 21 if things go as planned. Casino operators in Mississippi include Pinnacle Entertainment (NYSE:PNK), MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM), Penn National Gaming (NASDAQ:PENN), Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR) and Eldorado Resorts (NASDAQ:ERI).
    • Related ETF: BJK.

    Analysts lower expectations on Starbucks

    • A wave of downgrades on Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) from Wall Street analysts is pouring in this morning.
    • Morgan Stanley shifts to an Equal-weight rating to adjust for decelerating growth in China and the U.S. The firm sets a price target of $59 vs. $72 prior.
    • Telsey Advisors Group lowers its rating to Market Perform. The PT is reduced to $60 from $74.
    • BTIG drops SBUX to a Neutral rating after having it slotted at Buy.
    • Cowen trims its price target on SBUX to $61 and Stifel Nicolaus is in with a $58 PT.
    • Shares of Starbucks are down 4.67% in premarket trading to $54.75 vs. a 52-week trading range of $52.58 to $61.94.
    • Previously: Starbucks -3% after updating on FQ3 results (June 19)
    • Previously: Buybacks, dividends on the menu at Starbucks (June 19)

    CVS launches prescription delivery nationwide

    • CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) is rolling out delivery for prescription drugs nationwide as it braces for a possible disruption from Amazon.
    • It's 9,800 pharmacies will offer the next-day service for $4.99 and same-day deliveries in select urban markets for a higher fee.
    • CVS will also deliver other items, including cold medication, vitamins, and allergy medication.

    Snap -1.4% as Needham slashes revenue forecast

    • Snap (NYSE:SNAP) is 1.4% lower premarket after Needham's Laura Martin cuts Q2 revenue expectations by 15%, expecting a "dramatic" slowdown in brand spending.
    • Profits should be up, though, alongside cost-cutting. User projections and channel checks both point to a heavy drop in revenues, and Martin reiterates an Underperform rating. (h/t Bloomberg)
    • SNAP is down 8.9% YTD and down 25.6% over the past 12 months.

    Including IMAX!  AMC expands movie subscription service

    • AMC Theaters (NYSE:AMC) announces a significant expansion of its rewards program to add a new tier, which rewards guests with up to three movies per week for $19.95 per month.
    • The company says AMC Stubs A-List, members will be able to enjoy any available showtime, any AMC location, any format (including IMAX, Dolby, RealD 3D). AMC also notes that Stubs A-List members can use tickets at the spur of the moment or plan ahead to see a film through the AMC website or app.
    • "We believe that our current and future loyal guests will be interested in this type of program, as AMC Stubs A-List rewards guests with something that no one else offers: the very best of AMC, including IMAX, Dolby Cinema and RealD 3D up to 3 times per week, for one simple, sustainable price,” says AMC CEO Adam Aron,
    • AMC +1.23% premarket to $16.45.
    • Source: Press Release

  25. AMC/CRS, Dave – See above.  I have Stubs Premier already so I can cut lines but my kids use it for $5 movies on Tuesday so I'll certainly upgrade to this rather than keep giving them $20 to go to the movies.   I'd say it's a blow to HMNY but, then again, they service all theaters and that's an advantage – I just happen to live in an AMC-dominated area. Also, this now puts pressure on other theaters and maybe, rather than start their own, they just buy HMNY, which is only $28M at 0.33.  

    You have to consider that AMC's move also validates HMNY's plan and also AMC can't start making their own movies (not that Gotti proves HMNY can either).

    GE/Jabob – It won't be subject to index buyers.  

    • T left in March 2015 (AAPL) at $33, hit $44 in 2016 
    • AA ($19/$60), BAC ($14/$32.50) and HPQ ($9.50/$23.50) left in Sept 2013 (GS, NKE, V)
    • KFT left in Sept 2012 (UNH) – bought out much higher. 
    • C ($15/80) and GM ($10/$45) left in June 2009 (CSCO, TRV)

    So kicking things out of the Dow is very similar to cursing out stocks that aren't performing well – you end up selling them off at the lows and feel like an idiot when they eventually recover…

    And what that article says! 

  26. …are there really that many good movies to see?

  27. There are many studies that show that getting kicked out of an index (S&P500 is a good example and has more cases than the Dow) leads to over-performance long term. There are of course exceptions… But good in general.

  28. Movies / 1020 – I don't know if I could think of more than 2 movies each month that I want to see at the theater! I have my 120" screen at home – good enough for most movies.

  29. I guess we all can't have perfect timing like that mythical TSLA trade that was up 77% in a day for ALL of those who had their mythical fills like the STP ;-)

  30. StJ, 120" OMFG! I'm so jealous with my puny 55-incher.

    Still, I don't know how people watched hockey before the era of huge UHD televisions. It's pretty awesome now. 

  31. I hear a lot about HMNY on here but never seriously looked at it. Wondering if it's worth $500 on what's essentially a penny-stock/BK gamble?

  32. Wow, SBUX getting killed today!

  33. 120" / BDC – Size does matter… It's obviously a projector. If you add a surround sound system to it, there is really no need to go to the movies. 

    And you are right about hockey – how did we even see the puck on the small SD tube TVs?

  34. Movies/1020 – The Incredibles was very good and I want to see Ant Man and Wasp soon – my kids see probably one a week with their friends – what else can you do when you are over 16 and under 21?

    Home/StJ – I agree, unless it's some action thing I want to see on a very big screen with sound and stuff (usually IMAX) – I have no reason to get off the couch.  Even our local AMC is changing their seats to those longer types to try to get people back in the theater.  Another one serves food while you watch.

    TSLA/Jabob – Those fills weren't actually hard yesterday, especially since our premise was it goes lower and that's what it did all day so filling the long puts and short calls early and the short puts late could have given you a much better net than the one we looked for pre-market.  

    HMNY/Yodi – As a new trade, I'd sell the 2020 0.50 puts for 0.40 with the stock at 0.32 so you risk 0.10 so $500 would be 50 and you get paid $2,000 to risk $500 and anything over 0.10 is a winner.

    SBUX/StJ – So many stocks are priced for constant growth.  

  35. Speaking of movies I want to see!  

  36. Christopher Robin looks good – We have a few Peter Ellenshaw  'Winnie the Pooh' pieces hanging in our home… :)

  37. AMC / Phil – I now refuse to go to any theater other than the local AMC where they have the recliners! These old seats were just so uncomfortable when you are over 6' tall. On the downside, easy to fall asleep once they turn down the lights.

  38. Trump is going to sign an order to stop separating children from their families finally.  Thanks to all those who cared enough to force him to do the right thing.

    /CL falling again.

  39. So much for that line that only Congress could do it… Lies exposed again but Trump (and his ignorant base) don't care.

  40. Missed that oil short 2nd time this week

  41. Nice drop to $65 on /CL!

    We'll check out the report in the Webinar.

  42. nasdaq flying?


  43. It's Wednesday – I get burned every Weds shorting the Nas (and make it up later).

    Webinar time:

  44. MU after the close

  45. Coal/StJ – Long,slow death, propped up by Trump at the moment.

    Wheeee, my /NQ shorts just turned green!  Break-even was 7,313.  Really good for people who started during the Webinar up at 7,330…

  46. SGYP – Nice two day move.

  47. Here's what I'm watching:

    Gold slides to fresh 2018 low amid dollar strength

    • Gold futures settle at a six-month low amid a strengthening U.S. dollar, offsetting demand for gold bullion amid escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S. that normally should attract safe-haven investors.
    • August Comex gold closed -0.3% at $1,274.50/oz., the lowest settlement for a most-active contract since Dec. 21; the dollar has climbed nearly 1.1% this month.
    • “The near-term path of least resistance remains lower right now as dollar strength remains one of the most dominant trends across asset classes,” says Sevens Report co-editor Tyler Richey.
    • Additionally, the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates twice more in 2018 after hiking last week have helped to underpin some upward momentum in the dollar and has lifted interest rates on benchmark 10-year Treasury.
    • Meanwhile, July silver -0.1% to $16.309/oz. for its lowest settlement since mid-May.

    As noted in the Webinar, we added a /YG at 1,270 on the premise the Dollar should pause here.

  48. Much as I hate to miss these exciting closes – Maddie needs an outfit for graduation so I'm going to take off and take care of that!

  49. ETM with nice move up today, and stick at end

  50. Albo/SGYP

    Not sure why, but I will take it!  I’d love to cover a boatload of $1 calls I still hold. Looks like heading to $2.25 level with no news?

  51. /YG – does anyone know if this is the July or the August contract?

  52. Scott – Good call on ETM.

    Dclark – Don't know why either.  Not in the stock, but short a bunch of $1.50 puts.  We'll take it.

  53. Nasdaq futures flying again.

    Any news that made them pop higher?

  54. Music – new to me and OMG i love it, love the humor!

    Amanda Palmer - Massachusetts Avenue

  55. Trump Plans July Meeting With Vladimir Putin

  56. Trudeau: Canada to legalize marijuana on Oct. 17

  57. Trump Tells Republicans Not to Undercut Him on ZTE

  58. U.S. Sanctions on Iranian Oil Stir Up a Corner of the Market

  59. Report finds industrial chemicals more toxic than thought

  60. Good morning! 

    Nice scare on /NQ overnight – glad I slept through it! 

    Actually, I would have doubled back down but still sitting on my 4 short and stopping out with $1,000 if we bounce too high.  I'm still on the 6,500 bandwagon but I don't know when so better to make $1,000 80 times than spend 3 months waiting for a big drop!  

    No particular news driving things – just speculation on trade and monetary policy with a little OPEC sprinkled in for good measure.

    Palmer/Scott – She's good, check out the piano version.