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Two Thousand Dollar Thursday – Our Webinar Trades Make Money in the Downturn

Wheeeeeee! 

This is exciting, isn't it?  We had our Live Trading Webinar yesterday and our last Trade Idea was a long on Gasoline (/RB) at $1.82 with a planned double down at $1.80 for a hold into the weekend if we had to but already we're up $1,000 this morning (and done there) and that, added to our quick trades on the Nasdaq (/NQ) and the Russell (/RTY) Futures during the webinar put us well over the $2,000 profit mark on our Futures Trades, which is just where we want to be with 2 hours' of "hard" work. 

The indexes were far too scary to trade overnight and, even this morning, I'm less than enthusiastic about the "rally" that's lifting the Dow (/YM) back to 24,800 because that's still 2,200 points (8%) down from 27,000 which means it is only a weak bounce (20% of the 10% drop) and we're not going to be impressed by anything less than getting back over the 25,300 mark, which is still 500 points away.  

These are the same bounce lines we predicted we'd need yesterday morning after completing the 10% correction – we just weren't expecting to complete it yesterday and we didn't quite get to 24,300 (the 10% drop from 27,000) but we never quite got to 27,000 either – so fair is fair I suppose…

Actually, I'm not expecting us to bounce back to the strong lines and, as I said last night on Money Talk (where we announced our portfolio adjustments and DID manage to add the MJ trade we discussed yesterday morning), I think we're going to fail our lines and fall another 10%.  To that end, we added a Russell Ultra-Short (TZA) hedge to our Money Talk Portfolio in yesterday's review and, in our Live Member Chat Room, we added an additional Nasdaq Ultra-Short (SQQQ) to our Short-Term Portfolio at 10:40 am:

In the STP, we have 80 naked short SQQQ March $14 calls at $1.25, now $2.13 with SQQQ at $13.65.  I'm still iffy about covering but let's not take too much risk so let's pick up 80 of the June $12 ($3.30)/17 ($2) bull call spreads at $1.30 ($10,400) as they are well in the money and only lose if the market is going up nicely 8 months from now in which case our longs will be up $250,000 so we won't be worried about losing $10,400, right?  

Overall, it adds about $30,000 of insurance (the upside potential) as well as letting the short SQQQs ride for $17,000 we gain if they expire worthless.

Using our bounce lines, we knew that a failure at 7,080 (weak bounce line) on the Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) was a sign of DOOM!!! that indicated we were about to complete our FIRST 10% correction to 6,930 and the Nasdaq fell all the way to 6,785, which was a very nice $6,000 per contract gain on our Futures shorts for the day – a nice hedge if you know how to look for them! 

Also, as I noted in the morning report – watching the Dow (/YM) and Russell (/RTY) Futures would let us know whether to go long the Russell at 1,530 or short the Dow at 25,300.  Needless to say the Dow won and fell below 24,600 for a 700-point drop that paid $3,500 per short contract – another nice hedge to tide us over during the downturn...

 The Futures are wonderful for making quick adjustments to your portfolio's weighting – they are a tool every trader should have in their toolbox but it takes PRACTICE to get good at trading them so I suggest you start now – and don't wait for the next emergency to attempt your first trade!  

We've weighted ourselves back to bearish and we're going to be very skeptical of even weak bounces at this point and we can re-short the indexes if those weak bounces begin to fail.  Only making AND HOLDING strong bounces by tomorrow will convince us not to remain short into the coming weekend and, looking over the Dow components and their earnings so far – I'm not at all convinced that they shouldn't be down another 10% and AAPL hasn't even had its 10% correction yet ($207) and woe be unto the Nasdaq if it does.

Meanwhile, the MAGA Bomber is still at large with 8 bombs now sent to Trump's political enemies as actor Robert De Niro and Joe Biden also recieved packages with bombs in them early this morning and President Trump, upon hearing this news, seemed outraged – that the bomb wasn't sent to another media outlet:

We've certainly managed to turn the United States of America into a 3rd World Nation complete with tremendous wealth gaps, tin-pot dictators, social unrest, political assassination attempts and massive robbing of the Government piggy-bank leading to tremendous levels of debt – why should it surprise you that the market follows the rest of the World down into a 20% correction?  If this keeps up – we'll be lucky if that's all we lose…

 


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  1. On Tuesday night I posted:

    Looking at longer terms charts, if we are not done going down (which I believe is the case), then I see support at:
    Dow – 24,700 then 24,200
    S&P – 2700 (our bounce line today) then 2650 and 2600
    Nasdaq – 6900/7000 where we stand now then 6400/6600 zone
    NYSE – 12,200 where we bounced today then 11,800 to 11,900
    Russell – 1510  where we bounced today then 1440/1450 (Must Hold line)

    We did go through some of these support levels and are approaching others!


  2. In the meantime, one small correction and Trump is calling for the Fed to lower rates! Then there will be more tax cuts, stimulus, etc…

    Going to complain that unlike Obama, he inherited an economy that was a mess! I predict that we will see a recession before he is done and since we have no fiscal slack, we'll run deficits of $1.5T after more tax cuts. And they'll push for spending cuts which will make things worse. And as usual, we'll have to elect a Democrat to clean up. And will get blamed for raising taxes…History repeats itself.


  3. Any opinion on ABX earnings?


  4. Morning All! 

    The webinar replay is now available.

    https://youtu.be/we0yqw0X6qU


  5. Good Morning.


  6. Good morning!  

    Just got around to seeing John Oliver's clip on Saudi Arabia – they should just rename the Comedy Emmy the Oliver Award:

    I can't believe how complacent the market is now that we've got a wave of political assassination attempts two weeks before the election.  This is nuts!  

    Lower/StJ – Watch those 10% lines on the Big Chart – we have two reds already and /RTY is 1,477 so not far from turning the Must Hold Red – very possible we end up back at those lines before the selling is done.  As you note, Trump is already in panic mode and trying to "fix" the market but the selling wasn't done in 2008 until we had a major act of Congress.  

    ABX/Jabob – Well gold was cheaper in July, Aug, Sept than it was in Apri, May, June so I think the earnings were fine and people are spooked by the GOLD acquisition/merger but I like it because:

    TORONTO (Reuters) – Barrick Gold Corp could have nine of the world's top gold mines in a "relatively short" time under its $6.1 billion acquisition of African miner Randgold Resources Ltd , Barrick Executive Chairman John Thornton said Thursday.

    Barrick and Randgold will focus on Tier 1 assets which produce 500,000 ounces of gold annually, have a mine life of more than 10 years and are low cost. The combined company, subject to a Nov 5 shareholder vote, will have five of the world's top 10 Tier 1 assets, Thornton said on a quarterly conference call with analysts.

    Barrick said 2018 gold production is now seen in the low end of a range between 4.5 million and 5 million ounces, with all-in sustaining costs still estimated at $765-$815 per ounce. Fourth-quarter output is expected at approximately 1.25 million ounces.

    Copper output for 2018 is reaffirmed at 345 million to 410 million pounds, at all-in production costs of $2.55 to $2.85 per pound.

    For the quarter ended Sept 30, Barrick said adjusted earnings were $89 million, or 8 cents a share. That bettered the 5 cent per share profit that analysts, on average, had expected, according to Refinitiv.

    On a net basis, Barrick lost $412 million, or 35 cents a share, reflecting a $405 million impairment charge for a processing project at its Lagunas Norte mine in Peru that it will not advance.

    Revenue of $1.8 billion fell from $1.99 billion in the same period last year.

    Another cyclical, investment-intensive business that analysts have no idea how to value.


  7. I think it was the federal reserve printing money that stopped the selling   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing

    “The U.S. Federal Reserve System held between $700 billion and $800 billion of Treasury notes on its balance sheet before the recession. In late November 2008, the Federal Reserve started buying $600 billion in mortgage-backed securities.[60] By March 2009, it held $1.75 trillion of bank debt, mortgage-backed securities, and Treasury notes”

    -          That is printing about $1T in 5 months


  8. Saudi Crown Prince Vows Khashoggi Justice in Defiant Speech.

    China's Squeezed Private Companies Face More Funding Pain.

    South Korea’s Economy Grows More Slowly Than Expected.

    Trump's Fed Jabs, Global Labor Supply, Canada Tightens: Eco Day.

    With Stock Market in Free-Fall, Earnings Mean Almost Nothing.

    Optimistic Analyst Calls Are Not Stopping Bank Stocks From Bleeding.

    New York Sues Exxon Over Climate-Change Disclosures.

    China will do ‘whatever it takes’ to stop its falling stock market.

    Some call possible explosives sent to Obama, Clinton, CNN a ‘false flag.’ What is that

    Trump and the Fed are creating 'a totally destructive tug of war' in the stock market, Cramer warns.

    Chip stocks suffer their biggest drop in nearly 10 years.

    China And Russia Eavesdrop On Calls Made From Trump's Personal iPhone: NYT. 

    More Than Half A Million People: America's Homelessness Crisis Is Rapidly Exploding On Both Coasts.

    America's Social Depression Is Accelerating. 

    Cocaine Deaths Hit Record High; Next Wave Of Addiction Crisis Is Here.

    Orwellian Surveillance: Amazon Pitched US Gov't On Facial Recognition Cameras To Track Immigrants.

    "Trouble In Arkansas": This Cycle's Countrywide Financial Just Imploded.

    Eight Reasons A Financial Crisis Is Coming.

    Comment: The EU's unstoppable showdown with Italy risks a market crash and a euro break-up.

    Eurozone growth slumps as global slowdown fears deepen.

    Not exactly BUYBUYBUY kind of headlines this morning…

    Still, we can't afford to have opinions – we just need to see what kind of bounce we get today and/or tomorrow.  We already made some bottom plays so, if anything, I'm more worried about adding shorts than missing longs and CASH!!! is the most important defense we can have right now.

    Fed/Mike – Oh yes, it was a coordinated effort.


  9. FU GE!!!!!!


  10. ABX sinking…


  11. Phil – MU spread still good for new trade or does it need adjusting? TIA


  12. jabo / good thing we covered!!


    • Stocks are attempting to bounce back from yesterday's rout that wiped out the entire year's gain on the Dow and S&P 500, picking up steam after a modest open; Dow +0.8%, S&P +1%, Nasdaq +1.8%.
    • Similar declines during this bull market have "marked buying opportunities," says investment strategist Ed Yardeni, and "If this is still a bull market, as we believe it is, then the latest bearish technicals and October's swoon should mark the latest buying opportunity."
    • Sentiment is helped by solid earnings reports from some big names: Microsoft +5.6% after posting above-consensus top and bottom lines, Tesla +9.1% after reporting a surprise profit, and Twitter +16.6% after also beat earnings and revenue estimates.
    • European markets are mixed, with France's CAC +0.8% but Germany's DAX -0.3% and U.K.'s FTSE -0.4%; in Asia, Japan's Nikkei closed -3.7% while China's Shanghai Composite finished flat.
    • In the U.S., eight of the 11 S&P sectors are in positive territory, with communication services (+2.7%), information technology (+2.4%) and energy (+1%) showing strong starts, while health care, consumer staples and utilities lag.
    • The FAANG stocks are picking up some early buying interest: Facebook +2.3%, Apple +1.5%, Amazon +3.3%, Netflix +3.5%, Google +3%.
    • U.S. Treasury yields remain little changed, with the two-year yield at 2.86% and the 10-year yield adding a basis point to 3.13%.
    • WTI crude oil +0.2% to 66.93/bbl, still near a two-month month low.
    • Still ahead: pending home sales, EIA natural gas inventory, KC Fed manufacturing
    • The European Central Bank's Governing Council keeps the interest rates unchanged and expects to keep them at their current level through at least next summer.
    • Main refinancing operations rate at 0.00%, marginal lending facility at 0.25%, and deposit facility at -0.40%.
    • Will continue to make net purchases under the asset purchase program at the new monthly pace of  €15B until the end of this year.
    • Governing Council then expects to end net purchases, assuming data confirms the medium-term inflation outlook.
    • Also plans to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time after the end of the net asset purchases, for as long as necessary to maintain favorable liquidity conditions and "an ample degree of monetary accommodation."
    • Previously: Bank of Canada hikes again, loonie shoots higher (Oct. 24)

    • Sleep Number (NASDAQ:SNBR) is up 14% after topping Q3 consensus estimates and setting 2019 EPS guidance well-ahead of expectations.
    • Investors woke up after Sleep Number management said on the company's earnings conference call that the business gained "significant momentum" after the transition to the all-Sleep Number 360 smart beds.
    • CEO update on the Sleep Number conference call (transcript): "Sales orders grew 19% year-over-year in the last seven weeks of the quarter including double-digit unit growth and mid single-digit ARU growth. Due to the timing, this acceleration was not fully reflected in our third quarter reported results. Robust year-over-year sales growth has continued in October. Our thirteen week sales order growth, our best indicator of current business trends is up 16% through last week including 12 points of comp sales and 4 points of growth from new stores."
    • Previously: Sleep Number beats by $0.04, beats on revenue (Oct. 24)
    • Spirit Airlines (NASDAQ:SAVErallies 7.2% after topping Q3 estimates and setting pleasing Q4 guidance.
    • Despite the bumpy ride for airline stocks this year, shares of Spirit are sitting on their 52-week of $51.71.
    • Management pulled the right levers in Q3 to help see operating yield improve 3.0% Y/Y. Fare revenue per passenger flight segment was up 7.6% to $60.67 during the quarter, while non-ticket revenue per passenger flight segment increased 3.5% to $54.44.
    • Previously: Spirit Airlines beats by $0.03, beats on revenue (Oct. 24)
    • GrubHub (NYSE:GRUB) has fallen 11.9% in early action, reversing premarket gains, after a Q3 earnings report with record results but EBITDA and EBITDA guidance that trailed consensus.
    • Revenues jumped 52% on gross food sales that rose 40% Y/Y.
    • Net income (non-GAAP) jumped 72% to $42.2M, though EBITDA rose 41% to $60.1M.
    • Alongside the news, GrubHub said its chief operating officer Stan Chia is resigning Nov. 16 to pursue another position and the company is eliminating the role. Chia's not leaving due to a disagreement with the company.
    • Active diners came to 16.4M (up 67%) and "daily average grubs" were 416,000 (up 37%). Gross food sales were $1.21B.
    • It's guiding to Q4 revenues of $283M-$293M (above expectations for $272M) and EBITDA of $40M-$50M.
    • Previously: GrubHub beats by $0.04, beats on revenue (Oct. 25 2018)
    • Press release
    • Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQagrees to sell its 49% stake in two California solar parks to Danish pension service provider PKA for ~NOK2B ($307M).
    • The sale includes the minority stakes in the 272-MW Garland in Kern County and 258-MW Tranquillity solar power plants in Fresno County.
    • The two photovoltaic plants, developed by CSIQ's Recurrent Energy subsidiary, reached commercial operation in 2016 with long-term power purchase agreements in place; Southern Co. (NYSE:SO) owns the 51% majority stake in the two assets.
    • GOL Linhas Aereas (NYSE:GOL) will become the launch partner for Gogo's (NASDAQ:GOGO) Aircraft Data Service, Wireless Quick Access Recorder and Automated Turbulence Reporting – tapping into aircraft data to drive operational efficiency.
    • "Gogo is rapidly moving beyond passenger connectivity to connect pilots, flight attendants and the aircraft itself so airlines can access real-time information. By leveraging inflight connectivity, airlines will be able to provide better service in flight, improve safety and operate more efficiently," said John Wade, president of commercial aviation at Gogo.
    • Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO+2.9% pre-market after reporting stronger than expected Q3 earnings and a 31% Y/Y jump in revenues to $30.8B, as its refineries stayed busy with 99% capacity utilization.
    • VLO says its refining segment reported $1.3B of operating income vs. $1.4B for the year-ago quarter, with the $90M decrease mainly due to lower gasoline and secondary products margins.
    • Refinery throughput capacity utilization was 99%, with throughput volumes averaging 3.1M bbl/day, compared to 2.9M bbl/day in the year-ago quarter when five of the company's refineries were impacted by Hurricane Harvey.
    • VLO says its Q3 costs for biofuel blending fell 59% to $94M from $230M it paid in Q3 2017, citing lower prices of renewable fuel credits.
    • VLO says its $2.7B capex outlook for 2018, with $1B for growth projects and $1.7B for sustaining the business, remains unchanged.
    • Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is up 10.3% premarket after posting Q3 numbers ahead of estimates. While there's a whole bunch of analysts buzzing about the EV stock, it appears that Wolfe Research (Outperform rating from Peer Perform) may be the only firm to have switched its rating after taking in the earnings report and relatively uneventful conference call. Here's a smattering of what the analysts are saying today about the Palo Alto automaker.
    • Baird (Buy): "TSLA reported a Model 3 gross margin of 20%, which significantly exceeded our expectations. Management indicated it believes TSLA can be sustainably profitable and cash flow positive moving forward, which we think could help flip the narrative. We expect shares to trade higher following the blow-out quarter and remain buyers."
    • Morgan Stanley (Buy): "The quality of cash flow was stronger than expected with working capital not benefiting as much as we had anticipated."
    • Goldman Sachs (Sell): 'We question if this is not as good as it gets from a near-term upside surprise for shares. The company has maintained that it designed and built the Model 3 with a target 25% gross margin and almost achieved that this quarter (albeit with a rich mix). However, with its own exposure to China tariffs on imported components and likely headwinds to mix as lower price point vehicles are offered, automotive gross margins likely compress sequentially into 4Q18 – and could see further mix pressure into 2019 as the US Federal Tax Credit begins to phase out for its vehicles."
    • JPMorgan (Sell, price target lifted to $225): "We remain Underweight, both on valuation and concern the new stronger trajectory to earnings and cash may prove less sustainable than the market is likely to presume, including given several headwinds."
    • Jefferies: "Assuming R&D spending is not delayed and Tesla is not forced to introduce a lower price (Model 3) prematurely to maintain volume, Tesla could be self-funded. The Tesla investment case is about growth, not free cash generation, so we expect cash to be invested in growth and support current leverage if Tesla demonstrates sustainably positive free cash flow."
    • Others: Cowen lifts its price target to $250, Piper moves its PT to $396, Oppenheimer hikes its PT to $418.
    • Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, ChannelNewsAsia
    • Previously: Tesla soars after surprise profit (Oct. 24)
    • Previously: Tesla earnings call – live blog (Oct. 24)
    • Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) is up 4.4% premarket after beating on top and bottom lines in Q3, amid continuing trends of broadband growth and secular cable decline, and healthy growth in its TV and film operations.
    • Revenues grew 5%, attributable net income rose 9.3% and adjusted EPS jumped nearly 28%. EBITDA was up 2.5%.
    • In cable, net customer adds came to 288,000 (258,000 residential, 30,000 business services). But residential customer adds mostly came in single product (284,000), while double-product customers declined by 9,000 and triple/quad-play customers fell by 17,000.
    • Residential video customers dropped by 95,000, while High-Speed Internet customers increased by 334,000.
    • Revenue by segment: Cable Communications, $13.79B (up 3.4%); NBCUniversal, $8.625B (up 8.1%).
    • Cable revenues: Video, $5.59B (down 2.9%); High-Speed Internet, $4.32B (up 9.6%); Vocie, $982M (down 3.1%); Business Services, $1.8B (up 10.6%); Advertising, $684M (up 15.2%); Other, $406M (up 1.1%).
    • NBCU revenues: Cable Networks, $2.88B (up 10.8%); Broadcast Television, $2.45B (up 15.4%); Filmed Entertainment, $1.82B (up 3.8%); Theme Parks, $1.53B (down 1.4%).
    • Previously: Comcast beats by $0.04, beats on revenue (Oct. 25 2018)
    • Previously: Comcast declares $0.19 dividend (Oct. 25 2018)
    • Press release

    • UBS (NYSE:UBS) rises 2.3% in premarket trading in New York after reporting Q3 net profit rises 32% to CHF1.2B Y/Y.
    • Q3 adjusted profit before tax increased 15% Y/Y to CHF 1.73B.
    • Q3 EPS CHF0.32 vs. CHF0.33 in Q2 and CHF0.25 in the year-ago quarter.
    • Q3 adjusted return on tangible equity excluding deferred tax assets was 15.7% vs. 16.7% at June 30, 2018 and 13.3% a year ago.
    • "Global economic growth prospects and monetary policy normalization continue to provide a supportive backdrop to our business, although ongoing geopolitical tensions, rising protectionism and trade disputes have further dampened investor sentiment and confidence," the bank says in its earnings release.
    • CET1 capital ratio 13.5 vs 13.4 at June 30, 2018 and 13.7% at Sept. 30, 2017.
    • UBS to report in U.S. dollars starting Q4 2018.
    • Previously: UBS misses by CHF0.03, beats on revenue (Oct. 25)
    • Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) reports stronger than expected Q3 earnings despite an 8% Y/Y revenue decline to $1.73B, as bullion and copper prices fell.
    • On a net basis, NEM reported a loss of $161M, or $0.31/share, vs. a year-ago profit of $213M, or $0.39, with the loss largely due to “an impairment of exploration and long-lived assets in North America and lower metal prices."
    • NEM says Q3 gold production fell 4% Y/Y to 1.29M oz., in line with the company's guidance, while the average realized gold price slipped to $1,201/oz. from $1,276/oz. in the prior-year quarter; all-in sustaining costs fell 1% Y/Y to $927/oz.
    • NEM narrows its FY 2018 gold production forecast to 4.9M-5.2M oz. from 4.9M-5.4M oz. previously, including a reduced in expected North America production to 1.9M-2.1M oz. due to lower production at Carlin’s surface mines, while its AISC outlook is narrowed to $950-$990/oz.
    • The miner maintains its full-year forecasts for total capital spending and copper production.
    • Additionally, Tom Palmer is appointed President and COO, effective Nov. 1.
    • Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) pops 14.7% premarket on Q3 beats with revenue up 29% Y/Y.
    • Ad revenue: Advertising revenue totaled $650M (+29% Y/Y; consensus: $593.2M). Total ad engagements grew 50% Y/Y while cost per engagement decreased 14%. Data licensing and other revenue was up 25% to $108M (consensus: $107.8M). 
    • Revenue by geography: $423M in revenue came from the US (+28%) and $335M from International (+30%). 
    • User counts: Average DAUs +9% compared to 14% last year and 11% last quarter. Average MAUs were 326M (guide: 329M to 331M), down from 330M last year and 335M last quarter. User counts impacted by the new European data protection rules, technical issues, and some platform cleaning. 
    • Earnings call is scheduled for 8 AM ET with a webcast available here
    • Press release.    
    • Previously: Twitter beats by $0.07, beats on revenue (Oct. 25)
    • Hershey (NYSE:HSY) slips in early trading after a slight profit miss with its Q3 report.
    • Volume was up 1.7% during the quarter to offset a 1.2% decline in pricing.
    • Revenue in North America rose 2.9% to $1.84B aided by acquisitions, while international and other revenue dropped 1.9% to $236.1M.
    • The company's gross margin rate peeled off 130 bps to 44.0% of sales as higher freight and logistics cost factored in.
    • CEO update: "Our U.S. core confection retail takeaway and share trends are sequentially improving, in line with our expectations, driven by strong Halloween results and distribution gains on core items. The addition of Pirate Brands strengthens our brand portfolio and marks our second high-growth, high-margin acquisition this year to capture incremental snacking occasions. Our International business continues to deliver profitability improvements while driving strong constant currency organic sales growth."
    • Shares of Hershey are down 1.14% premarket to $106.94 vs. a 52-week trading range of $89.10 to $115.82.
    • Previously: Hershey misses by $0.01, misses on revenue (Oct. 25)
    • Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) guided Q2 on the earnings call last night with revenue from $31.9B to $32.7B (consensus: $32.25).
    • Guidance by segment: Productivity and Business Processes, $9.95B to $10.15B (consensus: $10.03B); Intelligent Cloud (now with GitHub), $9.15B to $9.35B ($9.16B); More Personal Computing, $12.8B to $13.2B ($10.18B). 
    • Earnings call transcript
    • Wedbush is out positive on Microsoft’s earnings report, saying the company “just delivered an eye popping cloud beat and a performance that speaks to a secular cloud story which is still in the early innings of playing out and supports our thesis that core enterprise cloud spending is actually accelerating into 2019.” 
    • The firm says Microsoft is “front and center along” along with Amazon Web Services in a “two horse race.” 
    • Wedbush reiterates its Outperform rating and $140 price target. 
    • Source: Research note. 
    • Microsoft shares are up 3% premarket to $105.36.  
    • Previously: Microsoft +2.9% on Q1 strength in cloud, Surface, and gaming (Oct. 24)
    • IMAX (NYSE:IMAX): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.14 beats by $0.04; GAAP EPS of $0.08 beats by $0.04.
    • Revenue of $82.11M (-16.9% Y/Y) beats by $1.63M.
    • Press Release
    • Merck (MRK) Q3 results: Revenues: $10,794M (+4.5%); Net Income: $1,950M; Non-GAAP Net Income: $3,178M (+4.1%); EPS: $0.73; Non-GAAP EPS: $1.19 (+7.2%).
    • Key Product Sales: KEYTRUDA: $1,889M (+80.4%); JANUVIA / JANUMET: $1,490M (-2.3%); GARDASIL / GARDASIL 9: $1,048M (+55.3%); PROQUAD, M-M-R II and VARIVAX: $525M (+1.2%); ISENTRESS / ISENTRESS HD: $275M (-11.3%); ZETIA / VYTORIN: $257M (-44.4%); NUVARING: $234M (+9.3%).
    • 2018 Guidance: Revenues: $42.1B – 42.7B from $42B – 42.8B; GAAP EPS: $2.41 – 2.47 from $2.51 – 2.59; Non-GAAP EPS: $4.30 – 4.36 from $4.22 – 4.30.
    • Shares are up 1% premarket.
    • Previously: Merck beats by $0.05, misses on revenue (Oct. 25)
    • Altia (NYSE:MO) slides past consensus estimates with its Q3 report.
    • The company recorded smokeless product revenue growth of 7.2% during the quarter and smokeable product revenue growth of 2.7%.
    • Total cigarette volume fell 3.7% to 29.698M sticks, driven lower by a 6.8% drop in discount cigarette volume.
    • The midpoint of Altria's full-year EPS guidance range of $3.95 to $4.03 matches the consensus estimate of $3.99. Altria says it expects to maintain a dividend payout ratio target of ~80% of adjusted diluted EPS.
    • In response to the recent FDA actions, Altria says Nu Mark will remove from the market MarkTen Elite and Apex by MarkTen pod-based products until the products land a market order from the FDA or the youth issue is otherwise addressed.
    • ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.36 beats by $0.17; GAAP EPS of $1.59 beats by $0.40.
    • Revenue of $10.17B (+41.3% Y/Y) beats by $610M.
    • Shares +2% PM.
    • Press Release
    • Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE:BUD) is down 9.6% in premarket trading after the company reduces its dividend by 50%.
    • The company is looking to steady its balance sheet after the monster deal to by SABMiller in 2016 piled on debt.
    • During Q3, Anheuser-Busch's profit fell to $956M from $2.06B a year ago as weaker emerging market currencies factored in. Total beer volumes were up 0.2% during the quarter. EBITDA grew by 7.5% and the company's gross margin rate widened 116 bps to 40.3%.
    • Anheuser-Busch InBev press release (.pdf)
    • Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) reports revenue per available seat mile increased 1.2% in Q3. Passenger yield was up 2.3% during the quarter. The average fare paid was 2.5% higher than last year at $153.40.
    • The carrier's load factor slipped 90 bps to 83.9% after capacity growth of 3.9% outran revenue passenger miles growth of 2.7%.
    • Total operating expenses increased 7.2% in Q3 to $4.8B. Total operating expenses per available seat mile were up 3.1% as fuel hedges mitigated the impact of higher oil prices.
    • CEO update: "The significant increase in our third quarter 2018 earnings per diluted share was driven by record third quarter operating revenues, lower federal income taxes, and a 4.8 percent year-over-year reduction in share count. Despite higher jet fuel prices and other cost pressures, we grew our third quarter 2018 net margin."
    • Looking ahead, Southwest expects 2018 RASM growth of 1% to 2% and capacity growth of ~4%.
    • Shares of LUV are down 0.49% in premarket trading to $54.32.
    • Vladimir Putin has warned of a new arms race if America pulls out of the three-decade-old Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, saying Russia would target European countries if they host U.S. nuclear missiles.
    • NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg also blamed Moscow for breaching the treaty, but said he didn't believe the Russian threat would lead to new deployments of U.S. missiles to Europe.
    • Dunkin' Brands (NASDAQ:DNKN) reports U.S. comparable store sales growth of 1.3% in Q3.
    • Dunkin' Donuts U.S. revenue up 4% to $157.28M.
    • Dunkin' Donuts International revenue advanced 27.3% to $6.26M.
    • Baskin-Robbins U.S. comp soar 1.8% and revenue grew 2.7% to $13.68M.
    • Baskin-Robbins International revenue expanded 7.6% to $31.16M.
    • Adjusted operating margin rate fell 30 bps to 33.4%.
    • Dunkin' Donuts U.S. has 52 net opening during the quarter to take the number of distribution points rose 3.3% Y/Y to 9,313.
    • Consolidated global points of distribution +385 Y/Y to 20,764.
    • FY2018 Guidance: Dunkin' Donuts U.S. comparable store sales: +1%; Baskin-Robbins U.S. comparable store sales: low single digit growth; Revenue: Low-to-mid single digit growth; Adjusted operating income: mid-single digit growth; GAAP EPS: $2.60 to $2.64; Adjusted EPS: $2.80 to $2.82; Share count: ~85M; Tax rate: 23%; Capex: $45M to $50M.
    • Previously: Dunkin' Brands beats by $0.10, beats on revenue (Oct. 25)

     


  13. So I see nothing that is very positive or negative in the news other than ECB not raising rates until next year but that's Dollar-positive (we're still raising ours) and puts pressure on markets and commodities.

    Nothing to do but watch and wait for now…

    MU/Soma – Way too early to adjust!  Are you looking to get in from scratch?


  14. Looking to get in from scratch


  15. MU – Thoughts on a trade.   I started making the changes to my position on this last week.  Selling long calls first, and then selling my short callers. I have a bad feeling on this one and while I was in the process setting up the new positions ( selling the '21 short longs) I realized I could exit this position with about a break even and clear up some cash ( stock went from 41 to 35 ish in 3 days) …. so I've done that.  I have some open '21 35 putters that I will sell some cherry calls ( currently have the Jan 49 that I sold at 1.5 — and work this.   I believe 35 should be. a good support line on this but I believe if we are heading into a slow down and memory is just starting to take a hit….  2020 should see a turn around, but I'm taking the cash and waiting for something better.   Sometimes you get  lucky.


  16. imax opinion?


  17. Thoughts on IP down here around $42-43?  PE around 11 (yahoo shows 6 but that includes Dec-2017 tax benefit).  Revenues and income seem steady on quarterly basis. "Sales rose to $5.90 billion from $5.52 billion, also beating analysts' forecasts of $5.89 billion according to FactSet."


  18. Phil, you travel and use Ameritrade.  Can you get it to work with a VPN or do you not bother?


  19. Do PUT option contracts get more expensive as the underlying stock moves up?


  20. VPN/tangledweb - I use a VPM with AmeriTrade and TOS, no issues.  Torgaurd last year, now NordVPN.  


  21. Phil – was able to sell MU puts for 7.20 vs 6.40 and got a nice fill on the long calls at 10.40 vs 12.40. Do you recommend waiting to leg into the short calls when I can get 7.00 per contract or, because I got better pricing on the long calls and short puts, it's ok to go ahead and buy the longs calls for 5.75? TIA


  22. tangledweb 

     I use a VPN with Think or Swim no issues


  23. MU/Soma, Batman - Well, at $36, the 2021 $33 puts can be sold for $6.10 so say $3,050 for 5 short and then you can buy 10 of the 2021 $25 ($16)/38 ($9.50) bull call spreads for $6.50 ($6,500) and that's net $3,450 on the $13,000 spreads that's pretty much in the money.  It's conservative but still pays $9,550 (276%) at $38.

    IMAX/Jabob – I don't know what people expect from these guys.  

    Imax (IMAX) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.14 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.11 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.08 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

    This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 27.27%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this entertainment technology company would post earnings of $0.25 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.30, delivering a surprise of 20%.

    Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.

    Imax, which belongs to the Zacks Film and Television Production and Distribution industry, posted revenues of $82.11 million for the quarter ended September 2018, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.30%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $98.80 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.

    Q4 is their big Q and they are on track to hit 0.95 for the year, which doesn't make them special at $20.50 but they are a solid growth company that tends to stay in the long-term channel, which makes them fun to play.  We got more aggressive last week, hoping earnings would get them higher but our base trade is 30 2021 $15 calls we just bought for $9 (now $7.50) and 10 short 2020 $22 puts we sold for $2.85 (now $3.30) and I have no problem waiting for them to move back to the top of the range before we cover.

    We've been playing them this way for 10 years – you should be used to it by now!  

    IP/Mike – People forget it's paper and packaging and paper may be in decline but I've never seen more packages with AMZN at the door every other day.  With my Prime Membership, I literally just go from the fridge to my IPad if I run out of something – not even a grocery list anymore – the items just come 2 days after we need them.  The price is the same and the poor grocery store with their overhead and employees is cut out and the packaging is a horrible environmental waste – but what can you do?

    Anyway, good for IP and I don't see much growth but a steady earner with a 5% ($2) dividend makes them attractive.  

    Since you can sell the 2021 $40 puts for $5.50 – let's sell 10 of those in the LTP for $5,500 and let's also pick up 15 of the 2021 $40 ($7.50)/47.50 ($4) bull call spreads for $3.50 ($5,250) so we have a $250 net credit on the $11,250 spread ($11,500 upside potential) and my real intention is to sell calls when they come back.  The Jan $50 calls are 0.35 but the $45s are $1.60 so let's say we pick up $1.50 per Q x 8 qs on 5 contracts is $6,000 more while we wait.

    VPN/Tangled – I don't bother but I also rarely open my main account when traveling – just my fun money account (the one I use for Webinars).

    Puts/Soma – Not usually but, sometimes, a quick rise in the underlying increases the internal VIX of the stock and that causes some puts to go up regardless of being the wrong direction.  Also, of course, at any time demand can cause strange things to happen.

    MU/Soma – Good job legging in.  Well, since you have a big advantage, I'd gamble a bit and hope for a bounce but keep a stop in mind for the least you want to get and, of course, when in doubt – SELL HALF!  


  24. Dems are so depressing; They can never get it together when it count. Watching the polls tighten is a horror show. If we don't get >63 House seats (a-la 2010 GOP) there is no point being associated with the democrat party. They are dead. You might as well join the Stalinist regime that is racist asshole trump and hope you not one of the 3% of the population Shithead Stalin ends up killing in the pending gulags.

    Fucking assholes.


  25. Phil, with SIX down from $70 to $52 in a few days, any recommended trades there? They did not have stellar results but competition is quite limited in this space so should be OK long term




  26. Walmart now carries sex toys




  27. SpaceX Seeks $500 Million Loan Via Goldman Sachs


  28. Dems/BDC – I know, it's terrible.  You'd think they could take the House and the Senate with ease but it looks like they might blow both because they have no clear leaders and can't get their message together.  That one is Obama's fault – he needs to step up and take control of the party and start picking the next generation of leaders.  He's got a good 20 years to build something and he already squandered the last 2.

    SIX/Alter – I do kind of like them and $52 is $4.4Bn with respectable $250M in earnings but not "cheap" at 17.6 p/e – just seems cheap in a crazy market.  The problem is, there was never a good reson for them to go from $50 to $70, $50 is the right price +/- 10%.  Still, you can sell the 2021 $40 puts for $5 and I'd consider that free money (as I have no problem building a position at $6) and then you could pick some 2021 $45 calls at $10 and see if $50 holds and, if it does, wait to see what you can get for short calls.  I think I'd do 5 and 5 to start – just to see how it goes.

    Nas 7,000, RUT 1,500, /ES 2,700, /YM 24,900 – can't say they aren't giving us very good lines to watch.  Dollar still very high but not likely to go over 96.50 so we could get a boost if it pulls back but, if those lines begin to fail – I'd still short the laggard.


  29. A win for democracy in Georgia



  30. Phil TSLA is flying high again on possible smoke would it not be time to set an other play?


  31. TSLA/Yodi – I think, to some extent, the facts have changed and I don't have enough evidence to bet against them at $310.  I don't think our $420 shorts are in danger but $310 is not $420 and, if they are able to make model 3s profitably for $35,000 – then there's no sense betting against them.  They claim to have made $312M and clearly that's not enough to give them a $52Bn valuation but maybe they can make $2.5Bn a year in the next few years and then $52Bn is not crazy anymore.  

    I still think they are scamming but, if I can't prove it I just don't play – it's not like I care that much what they do….  If you check out their shareholder letter, suddenly there's an A/R balance of $1.15Bn – that makes no sense – it looks like they just pumped it up to balance our rising A/P.  I suspect but can't prove some sort of bookkeeping trick.  Also, the purported margins on the model 3s make no sense but there are so many tricks they could be playing to defer costs or pull revenues forward that there's no way to tell what the truth is from a single quarter's statement but this is all Muck will need to raise another $2-3Bn and then next Q they can pretend the loss is from building another factory and PRESTO! – he's bought himself another 6-9 months before people begin to question him again.  Before you know it – he'll be off to Mars before the thing collapses…

    Wow, the market got really boring after hitting those lines.  24,909, 2,700, 6,996 and 1,497…

    Dollar right at 96.47 too.

    Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
    Oct 25, 2018 267.38 270.27 266.23 269.62 269.62 78,960,060
    Oct 24, 2018 273.33 273.76 264.70 265.32 265.32 177,296,600
    Oct 23, 2018 270.95 274.87 268.61 273.61 273.61 146,352,700
    Oct 22, 2018 277.00 277.36 274.41 275.01 275.01 82,415,800

    Volume is good but not great today.  320M down from 2,765 to 2,670 and now 79M up for a halfway recovery?  The recovery leaves us weaker (less Dollars supporting the same level) than we were – that's not good! 


  32. Just got filled on the SQQQ JUNE 10/18 BCS as an FYI


  33. Hey, it just occurred to me that Musk doesn't have to go to Mars.  He could just fake his own death in a test flight and go back to his old face and disappear with all the money!  

    Image result for elon musk face change

    Wow, respect for Elon's long-range scheme if he pulls that off!  

    SQQQ/Fel – See, you just have to stick with it and it fills eventually in this crazy market. 

    96.5 on /DX is goaaaaalllllllllll!!!! Now what?


  34. Phil thanks for the explicit statement on TSLA I am not looking to bank on 310 I was more looking at a ceiling of 380 to 400 at which they possible not get.
    But as you say conservative is the better way.


  35. Earnings on CMG, GILD, and MO


  36. Phil GILD – Any outlook on Earnings today?


  37. Phil (or anyone else) any recommendations on good stock valuation books? I recently ordered "Accounting for Value" by Stephen Penman, hasn't arrived yet but supposed to be good. 

    The intelligent investor supposedly a classic?


  38. That was from Elon's Twitter feed!  

    With TSLA you have to apply Occam's Razor. You have high turnover and an accounting offer who left a month on the job. You have whistleblowers alleging fraud. You have all sorts of odd things happening this quarter. If it looks like cooking the books, it probably is.

    GILD/Batman – No clue.  Just waiting and seeing like the ordinary folks…

    Social Security is yet another pre-existing condition Republicans don’t want to cover.

    Valuation/CRS – The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham is the definitive bible on the subject.  Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies by McKinsey (various authors collected).  Determining Value by Richard Barker is a good summary of various methods and, like me, he advocates using the right tool for the job, rather than one method fits all.

    The View’s Meghan McCain compares bombs targeting Dems to Republicans getting ‘heckled at restaurants’

    I'm doing a talk in Santa Barbara in an hour about passive investing. 4 people have already asked me about the market downturn and the person speaking now is a Bitcoin expert. I think I'm gonna go throw myself in the ocean.

    Now we're breaking higher…

     

     

      


  39. RTN/Phil- they just reported with beats and raised guidance, stock down 3%… interested to add?


  40. AMZN earnings today….


  41. Phil, I own 10,000 shares of F for a long time, very low basis.  I write annual puts and calls. Current position:

    Long 25 2020 11.87 calls (basis 1.20)

    Long 25 2020  12.00 calls (basis 1.22)

    Short 50 2020 11.87 puts (basis 2.10)

    Calls are up 77%; puts down 56%. 

    Advice please.




  42. Worried about Trump iPhone eavesdroppers? China recommends a Huawei





  43. Government ranks 18 US volcanoes as ‘very high threat’



  44. Tariffs Bite U.S. Economy With Record Trade Gap, Cooler Orders


  45. Phil:

    Wow!  Just had a moment to see where things are at.  This market slaps you one way and then slaps you another.  Does the breadth of these gyrations tell you anything?  


  46. T ( AT&T) hitting 30 today….  6.5% yield – earnings today


  47. ATT – earnings not today - 


  48. Wow, Elon's hair is so different! Like, damn….


  49. RTN/Dave – I'm not a big fan since their profits tend to be at the whims of Government spending.  The reason I like LMT is because they are working on major long-term projects like Fusion – that could be massive home runs down the road.  

    F/Taihu – Well, I don't know why you were the sucker paying a fortune in premium on 2020 calls.  Those are now about 0.28 and the puts are in the money at $3.35 and the options are 50% of your actual stock holding on the play.  I'm not sure what you were attempting to accomplish in the first place.  I assume you are good if you wrote short-term calls but there's no "saving" 50 @ 0.28 = $1,400 that remains out of $6,000 worth of long calls. 

    The short puts can be rolled to the 2021 $10 calls at $2.35 so that will cost you $1 but you'd still have $1.10 from the sale so net $8.90 is a nice improvement – unless you are dying to be assigned another 5,000.  Then you just need to wait and see F goes higher.  If it does, you can pick up some money selling calls and, if it doesn't, consider that you will be assigned 5,000 more shares at net $8.90 but if you sold 50 (1/2 cover) of the 2021 $7 calls at $2.40, that would drop the basis on the new (potential) 5,000 to $6.50 – so you do have an escape route if F fails to hold $8.50 and it's one that puts $12,000 in your pocket.  If F goes up from there you gain $5,000 on the short puts and you can always do a 2x roll on the short calls to 2023.  

    Breadth/DC – Yes, violent gyrating moves can come before very violent downturns.  As noted above, I watch the volume because a move up isn't stable until the volume equals the move down's volume.

    T/Batman – That's our buy line earnings disappointed and it will take them a while to ingest Time Warner so no rush to get in.

    Hair/BDC – If you make a few Billion Dollars you can choose you own hair (nose, chin, cheeks, teeth, lips, eyebrows) too!  


  50. OK, so how are we doing into the close?

    • Dow (/YM24,800 (weak) and 25,300 (strong) 
    • S&P (/ES2,710 (weak) and 2,780(strong)
    • Nasdaq (/NQ7,080 (weak) and 7,230 (strong) 
    • Russell (/RTY1,530 (weak) and 1,575 (strong)

    So, since yesterday morning, we've added 3 red boxes and the S&P is just under the red line (2,705) so, ignoring yesterday and today's net action – we've simply lost more ground from yesterday morning – end of story…  

    Everything else is just noise.


  51. AMZN seems to be $5/share – huge beat but they were up 7% today so still might not be enough to move them higher. 

    Keep in mind, $5 x 4 qtrs is only $20 per $1,700 share – that's still 85x earnings.  

    GOOGL seems in-line.  I think all these cloud companies have hit the end of the new growth phase and now they are just competing with each other.  


  52. INTC doesn't seem to be worried about slowdown in chip sector. 


  53. GILD - 

    Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.84 beats by $0.21; GAAP EPS of $1.60 beats by $0.31.

    Revenue of $5.6B (-14.0% Y/Y) beats by $230M.

    Shares +0.3%.

    Press Release


  54. The Politics of Pipe Bombs



  55. Iraq’s new oil minister has a top priority: Pump more oil



  56. Very embarrassing that I keep on getting it wrong when I write to you.  Just doing too many things at one time and need to slow down.  My apologies.  As I mentioned first, I was writing those positions, so I am short both the calls and put…


  57. The Feds and New York Allow Further Access to CBD and Medical Cannabis



  58. does anyone know what caused 80 plus point drop in nasdaq at 4 pm

    i cant see anything in news


  59. Amazon and google both tanked after the bell on earnings? 


  60. Wow – AMZN wipes out $90B in market cap AH, and GOOG $40B. Should be an interesting day tomorrow.


  61. Should be an interesting end of the week ????


  62. glad my 1.30 bid for the SQQQ 12/17 spread got filled today – thanks Phil!




  63. Vice News Able To Purchase Ads On Facebook Listed As ‘Paid For’ By ISIS




  64. Do cops back Ted Cruz? Police groups disagree on top Texas endorsements


  65. Mattel gets a boost from Barbie


  66. Futures down, VIX up – an interesting close to the week.  








  67. Intel Raises Forecast Amid Robust Chip Sales




  68. South Korea’s Kospi Joins Chinese Shares in Bear Market



  69. New Oil and Gas Island Approved off Alaska


  70. Good morning!

    Well, we're re-testing Wednesday's lows so hopefully a  little bounce here at 24,600, 2,650, 6,750 and 1,470 so I'd go long the laggard here but very tight stops below.

    Also /CL over the $66.50 line and /RB $1.785 are both fun longs for a Friday.

    Watch the Dollar though, we don't want to see it over 96.50 and VIX under 22 would be nice too!

    /NKD also a good bounce off 21,000.

    Just looking for a little pre-market run-up.  No actual reason for us to be going up or down at the moment but GDP at 8:30 should be exciting.


  71. Draghi Says Stimulus Withdrawal on Track Despite Growth Wobble.

    Fed Fires Warning Shot at Wall Street's Riskier Loan Deals.

    Sell-Offs Are Normal, But This Week Is Shocking the Pros.

    Copper weakness hints at economic woes ahead.

    A lot just happened in markets over the last 24 hours: Here's what you should know.

    Brexit Talks On Hold As "May's Team Can't Agree", Cable Slides.

    US Markets 'Dead-Cat-Bounce' As 'Smart Money' Collapses To Lehman Lows. 

    • Shares in Danish cannabis firm StenoCare more than tripled in value on Friday in their debut on the Danish-Swedish Spotlight exchange, rising to as much as 33.50 crowns in early trading.
    • Denmark is one of several European countries that recently legalized prescriptions of medicinal cannabis oil, perking a surge in investor interest in a substance that is still banned or restricted in many markets.
    • On course for more rate hikes? "While a deeper and more persistent drop in equity markets could dash confidence and lead to a significant pullback in risk-taking and spending, we are far from this scenario," said Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who leans somewhat hawkish.
    • The economy is doing "very well," with inflation at the Fed's 2% goal and business and consumer spending expected to remain robust, with no strong pullback in a cooling housing market.
    • President Trump may send up to 1,000 active-duty troops to the U.S.-Mexico border as a caravan of several thousand migrants travels northward from Central America.
    • "A wide range of administrative, legal and legislative options" are being considered, according to sources, but any ban would face likely legal challenges.
    • Closing busy ports of entry along the Mexican border could also impede the flow of goods, affecting the U.S. economy.
    • Shares initially were higher in post-market action last night following an earnings beat, but Q3 DAUs slipped a hair more than estimated, and the Q4 revenue outlook was shy of Street estimates.
    • The sell-side so far isn't impressed, with JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth downgrading to Underweight from Neutral, and cutting the price target to $6 from $12.
    • Jefferies keeps the stock at a Hold, but cuts its PT to $8 from $11.
    • SNAP -13% to $6.08.
    • Previously: Snap beats by $0.15, beats on revenue (Oct. 25)
    • Previously: Snap dips in choppy trade after Q3 beat, slowing user growth (Oct. 25)
    • Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL) reports flat global unit volume in Q3, while organic sales fell 0.5%.
    • North America sales rose 8.0% in Q3, while Latin American sales were down 13.0%.
    • Pricing was up 1% during the quarter.
    • Gross margin fell 10 bps to 59.2% of sales vs. 60.0% consensus. Higher raw and packaging material costs were partially offset by cost savings during the quarter.
    • SG&A expenses were up 10 bps to 35.6% of sales.
    • Operating profit fell 190 bps to 23.4% of sales.
    • CEO Update: "The third quarter was a challenging one with category growth rates remaining soft in many markets and unfavorable movements in foreign exchange. Net sales decreased 3.0% and organic sales decreased 0.5%, primarily due to market volatility in Brazil and trade inventory reductions in China.. While the pricing environment remains difficult given competitive and retailer dynamics, we are pleased we delivered positive pricing this quarter, which partially offset higher commodity and logistics costs."
    • CL -3.3% premarket.

  72. Got stopped out already on Futures but good Egg McMuffin money! 


  73. Dollar going up is the problem – premise is still sound so looking for re-entries.  


  74. Not into the GDP – of course!


  75. SGYP – Cratered.  Bought 1000 shares at .459.  Kamikaze trade.