Archive for 2018

Canada’s Debt Spiral: Does Justin Trudeau Live In An Alternative Reality?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Lee Friday via The Mises Institute,

Living beyond our means requires us to borrow money to cover the difference between our income and our spending. Many Canadians now understand the financial consequences of this practice and regret the choices they’ve made. Unfortunately, Prime Minister Trudeau is not one of them, as evidenced by his government’s budget deficits which are further eroding the financial wellbeing of Canadians. He has broken a campaign promise, ignored basic economic principles, and seems hell-bent on setting an ignominious record. According to the Fraser Institute: "Justin Trudeau is the only prime minister in the last 120 years who has increased the federal per-person debt burden without a world war or recession to justify it."


The Broken Promise

The Liberals had won the 2015 federal election with a pledge to run annual shortfalls of no more than $10 billion over the first three years of their mandate, and to eliminate the deficit by 2019-20.

The deficit for 2016-17, Trudeau’s first full fiscal year, was $17.8 Billion. The forecast for 2017-18 is $19.9 Billion, and for 2018-19, the forecast is $18.1 Billion.

And now, from the government’s 2018 budget, we read this:

While austerity can come from fiscal necessity, it should not turn into a rigid ideology about deficits that sees any investment as bad spending.

The government says deficits are economically beneficial, and compares deficits to loans taken out by entrepreneurs and business owners. But here's the rub: in order to spend, the government must first raise money by taxing or borrowing (deficits). This deprives the private sector of money which would otherwise be available for businesses to borrow and invest in new production, thereby creating jobs and raising our standard of living.

Moreover, government ‘borrowing and spending’ imposes a financial burden on future taxpayers who must pay pay back both the loan and the interest payments. In contrast, repayment of private business loans imposes a burden on the entrepreneurs — and because entrepreneurs are held personally liable, they are incentivized to be prudent decision makers. Politicians, on the other hand, lacking personal liability, tend to be fickle, reckless, arbitrary, and wasteful.


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Contaminated Fukushima Water Storage Tanks “Close To Capacity”, TEPCO Admits

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The Tokyo Electric Power Company is running out of container space to store water contaminated by tritium outside the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, and it's also running out of room for building more tanks, according to Yomiuri Shimbum, a Japanese newspaper, which is creating an intractable problem for the utility, which has been tasked with supervising the cleanup of Fukushima.

The Japanese government has been desperately trying to accelerate the cleanup ahead of the upcoming 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo – and it's a miracle it hasn't run into this issue sooner. TEPCO is still struggling with how to dispose of the tritium-tainted water. Options discussed have included dumping it into the ocean, but that proposal has angered local fishing communities.
Statistics sourced: https://www.coldwaterstorage.co.uk/

Fukushima

At some point, TEPCO and the government will need to make a difficult decision. Until then, ground water will continue to seep into the ruined reactor, where it becomes contaminated. Afterward, TEPCO can treat the contaminated water to purify it, but they can't remove the tritium, which is why the supply of water contaminated with tritium continues to grow.

As one government official pointed out, Japan can't simply store the radioactive water forever. As of now, the company should be able to store water until 2020.

Efforts have been made to increase storage capacity by constructing bigger tanks when the time comes for replacing the current ones. But a senior official of the Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry said, "Operation of tanks is close to its capacity."

TEPCO plans to secure 1.37 million tons of storage capacity by the end of 2020, but it has not yet decided on a plan for after 2021.  Akira Ono, chief decommissioning officer of TEPCO, said, "It is impossible to continue to store [treated water] forever."

But after that, Tepco is either going to need to start releasing the tritium water into the ocean (something that has been done by many power plants, but is politically popular in Japan) or find another solution. In fact, an average of 380 trillion becquerels had been annually released into the sea across Japan during the five years before the accident. If…
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Earnings Estimates: Yardeni Asks “What Are Analysts Smoking”?

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock, MishTalk

Earnings estimates keep rising and rising. What is everyone smoking?

A Tweet to a Linked-In article by Edward Yardeni caught my eye. Yardeni asks What Are Stock Industry Analysts Smoking?

I would like to try some of whatever industry analysts are smoking. You can compare my earnings forecasts to their consensus estimates on a weekly basis in YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast on our website. I say “tomato.” They say “tomahto.”

My earnings-per-share estimate for 2018 is $155.00 (up 17.4% y/y). The analysts continue to up the ante and are currently at $160.40 (up 21.5%). My estimate for 2019 is $166.00 (up 7.1%). Theirs is $175.72 (up 9.6%). Perhaps the analysts are just high on life.

Their growth estimate for next year seems too high to me since I expect 2019 earnings growth to settle back down to the historical trend of 7%.

Are They All High on Life?

Yardeni says "You can drive a truck between my earnings estimates and theirs."

Yet he still suggests "the stock market is likely to be at new record highs by the end of this year," even with his earnings estimate.

What Can Possibly Go Wrong?

I guess we can throw out a recession, earnings reversion to the mean, a global slowdown, a valuation scare, or simply a valuation reversion to the mean.

Asset Bubble Poised to Break

  1. Note that it has taken about $1 trillion in buybacks and dividends just to hold the the S&P 500 barely above breakeven on the year.

  2. Crescat Capital notes Fed Tightening Cycles Coincide With Bursting of Asset Bubbles.

Yardeni is still looking up.

Mirror Mirror on the Wall

When asking what others are smoking, perhaps one should look into a mirror to see if they are smoking essentially the same stuff, just less of it.

Addendum

A reader emailed asking "what make you so sure Yardeni is wrong?"

Another commented " If I had to choose between 1) a small increase…
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“The Outlook Is Not Good”: Goldman Sees U.S. In Dire Straits As Deficit Hits $2 Trillion In 10 Years

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Three months ago, Goldman first among the big banks warned that the US fiscal trajectory was dire, warning that "US fiscal policy is on an unusual course" with the budget deficit expected to widen over the next few years, as a result of prior imbalances and recently enacted policies – namely Trump's dramatic fiscal stimulus – which should lead to a federal debt/GDP ratio of around 85% of GDP by 2021.

This, Goldman's economists warned, stands in contrast to the typical relationship between the economic cycle and the budget balance, as shown in Exhibit 2, which shows that the US deficit should be small and shrinking, not large and growing at this stage in the business cycle when the unemployment rate is near its cyclical lows.

But the biggest risk by far, according to Goldman, was the rising interest expense on the Federal Debt, which all else equal, would send the US into banana republic "uncharted territory." This is what Goldman warned back in February:

… we project that, if Congress continues to extend existing policies, including the recently enacted tax and spending legislation,  federal debt will slightly exceed 100% of GDP and interest expense will rise to around 3.5% of GDP, putting the US in a worse fiscal position than the experience of the 1940s or 1990s.

The bank's conclusion in February was just as dire: "the continued growth of public debt raises eventual sustainability questions if left unchecked." Of course, "sustainability questions" is a polite bank euphemism for economic and financial catastrophe.

* * *

Fast forward to today when, three months after its original dire assessment, Goldman doubles down and in a note assessing "what's the worst that could happen" with the US budget deficit, writes that "the US fiscal outlook is not good" and among other things, predicts that the US fiscal deficit will double from $1 trillion over the next 12 months to $2 trillion by 2028, or a near record 7% of GDP:

We project the federal deficit will increase from $825bn (4.1% of GDP) to $1,250bn


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Poor America: 40% of Americans Can’t Afford Middle-Class Lifestyle

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Even though the stock market trades at near record highs, joblessness suppressed at decade lows, and corporate buybacks/profits booming via Trump’s tax reform, poverty is exploding all over America.

One of the primary objectives of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy of this past decade was to generate the “wealth effect”: by artificially driving valuations of stocks and bonds to nosebleed valuations, American households would feel more prosperous, therefore, be more inclined to borrow and spend, even if some households did not own financial instruments.

In other words, a Central-Bank-free-money-anything-goes-induced ‘economic recovery’ was supposed to trigger fast-paced economic growth, as households would reignite the service-based economy.

While this perception management only worked for the wealthiest households who owned financial instruments, the reckless monetary policy of the Federal Reserve created a massive problem of wealth inequality among Americans.

According to a new study obtained exclusively by Axios, more than 40 percent of households cannot afford the basics of a middle-class lifestyle, including rent, transportation, childcare and a cellphone.

The study, conducted by the United Way ALICE (Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed) Project, a nationwide effort to quantify and describe the number of households that are struggling financially, discovered “a wide band of working U.S. households that live above the official poverty line, but below the cost of paying ordinary expenses,” said Axios.

Stephanie Hoopes, Ph.D., Director, United Way ALICE Project told Axios, “based on 2016 data, there were 34.7 million households in that group — double the 16.1 million that are in actual poverty.”

Axios reminds us that for two-years, U.S. politics has been overwhelmed by the anger and resentment of a self-identified abandoned class of people, dubbed the “deplorables,” a group of millions of Americans who have been left behind economically and forced into poverty.

According to Hoopes, the United Way research report will be fully released on Thursday, which suggests that the “deplorables” are a much larger group than many have anticipated — and growing despite the stock market trading at near record highs.

Axios provides a summary of the report that will be released on Thursday: 

  • The United Way study, to be released publicly Thursday,


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Polleit: Gold Should Be Viewed As Money – Not As An Investment

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Thorstein Polleit via The Mises Institute,

On May 4 and 5, 2018, Warren E. Buffett (born 1930) and Charles T. Munger (born 1924), both already legends during their lifetime, held the annual shareholders’ meeting of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Approximately 42,000 visitors gathered in Omaha, Nebraska, to attend the star investors’ Q&A session.

Peoples’ enthusiasm is understandable: From 1965 to 2017, Buffett’s Berkshire share achieved an annual average return of 20.9 percent (after tax), while the S&P 500 returned only 9.9 percent (before taxes). Had you invested in Berkshire in 1965, today you would be pleased to see a total return of 2,404,784 percent: an investment of USD 1,000 turned into more than USD 24 million (USD 24,048,480, to be exact).

In his introductory words, Buffett pointed out how important the long-term view is to achieving investment success. For example, had you invested USD 10,000 in 1942 (the year Buffett bought his first share) in a broad basket of US equities and had patiently stood by that decision, you would now own stocks with a market value of USD 51 million.

With this example, Buffett also reminded the audience that investments in productive assets such as stocks can considerably gain in value over time; because in a market economy, companies typically generate a positive return on the capital employed. The profits go to the shareholders either as dividends or are reinvested by the company, in which case the shareholder benefits from the compound interest effect.

Buffett compared the investment performance of corporate stocks (productive assets) with that of gold (representing unproductive assets). USD 10,000 invested in gold in 1942 would have appreciated to a mere USD 400,000, Buffett said – considerably less than a stock investment. What do you make of this comparison?

To answer this question, we first need to understand what gold is from the investor’s point of view. Gold can be classified as (I) an asset, (II) a commodity, or (III) money. If you consider gold to be an asset or a commodity, you might indeed raise the question as to whether you should keep the yellow metal in your investment portfolio.

But when gold is seen
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“This Can Sneak Up On Us Quickly”: Morgan Stanley Has Another Warning For The Bulls

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In Morgan Stanley's latest Sunday Start note, the bank's chief equity strategist, who toward the end of 2017 turned decidedly gloomy on the US stock market after being one of its biggest bulls a year earlier, said that at the beginning of 2018 his view was out of consensus: "while we agreed 2018 would be a year of robust earnings growth, we differed by arguing that risk markets would not be rewarded for it. For US equities, we envisioned flat to modest positive returns as multiple contraction offset earnings growth."

And, to be sure, for a while he looked way off: as Wilson notes, "the strong start to the year made our less sanguine view look premature or just dead wrong." Yet things quickly changed after the February volocaust, when US equity valuations corrected materially, in large part due to the forward price/earnings for the S&P 500 falling 12% from its December high, largely thanks to a surge in forecast EPS due to Trump tax reform and a record amount of projected buybacks this year, by some estimates as much as $1 trillion. And while some sectors have seen their P/Es fall by much more, the median sector P/E compression closer to 15%.

As a result of the recent market volatility, Wilson says that his recent conversations with investors are not as contentious as they were in January. In fact, he is now worried that his view is simply the consensus… "perhaps implying that our call is much less likely to prove correct. This is not to say the consensus can’t be right; we note an old adage that the consensus is right 80% of the time. The problem now is that the consensus projects much more modest returns", Wilson laments.

Which, of course, is bad news for investors, who actually have to do some work to generate returns and "have to rely more on idiosyncratic or tactical investment ideas rather than just being long beta."

Here, Wilson notes one such idea he has recently been vocal about, namely trading a range in the S&P 500 — between 16-18x forward 12-month earnings, and points out that since January’s highs, the market has successfully tested that 16x floor four separate times. "That floor is rising with earnings
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These Are The Top 50 Hedge Fund Long And Short Positions

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

2018 was the year hedge funds were supposed to finally outperform the S&P. Alas, as the latest Goldman Sachs hedge fund trend monitor – a survey of 848 hedge funds with $2.3 trillion of gross equity positions ($1.6 trillion long and $702 billion short) as of March 31, 2018 – that was not meant to be, and while the hedge fund hotel basket of most popular stock is just marginally outperforming the S&P YTD, both the equity hedge fund index, the composite hedge fund index, and the global macro hedge fund index are all trailing the S&P500. Again.

Yet amid this chronic underperformance, we should note that less than three weeks after we reported that the Goldman Hedge Fund VIP basket was getting slammed in late April, mostly as a result of a hit to the tech sector and FAANGs, it has since recently recovered, largely thanks to the previously discussed wholesale short squeeze, mostly among tech, healthcare and energy names.

Also of note: strong fundamental results did not result in strong performance: the average outperformance of stocks beating earnings estimates was less than half the typical amount. As a result, funds apparently trimmed their top positions. And so, in late April, Goldman's VIP basket of the most popular hedge fund long positions (ticker: GSTHHVIP) underperformed a basket of stocks with the highest short interest (GSTHVISP) by nearly 400 bp, lagging for six days in a row. In the last few weeks, as noted above, these favorite positions have recovered.

As discussed previously, during these sharp rotations in the past month, a major short squeeze was taking place, however that failed to dent the conviction of the smart money, and "hedge fund crowding" in the most popular positions rose slightly in 1Q and remains elevated relative to history. As a result, as shown in the chart below, the average hedge fund holds 68% of its long portfolio in its top 10 positions, the highest level in two years and slightly below the record “density” of 69% in 1H 2016.

Similarly, the share of S&P 500 market cap…
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5 Factors That Drive Bitcoin’s Ups & Downs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Kayla Matthews via Hackernoon.com

The price of Bitcoin has been wildly volatile. From November to December 2017, it increased by 223 percent. It fell by 59 percent between January and February 2018, increased by 64 percent from February to March and then dropped again during March by 40 percent.

While this isn’t necessarily a reason to give up on Bitcoin, it does serve as a stark warning to those who plan to invest in it.

[ZH: Even though we note that Bitcoin's daily trading range has collapsed to a more reasonable level recently...]

Why does this digital currency have so many ups and downs? Many of the same factors that influence changes in the value of other items affect the price of Bitcoin. Because it’s so new and different than other currencies though, many of these impacts are exaggerated.

Here are five of the primary factors influencing the price of Bitcoin.

1. Supply and Demand

This one will be obvious to anyone who has taken an introductory economics course. Bitcoin, like other currencies, is subject to the impacts of supply and demand.

The supply of Bitcoin is analogous to that of gold. Just as there is a pre-determined amount of gold in the earth, the Bitcoin protocol has a predetermined number of Bitcoins within it. People need to mine gold to bring it into the marketplace.

Similarly, people must mine Bitcoin by using computing power to solve a complex mathematical equation. When miners successfully solve this puzzle, they earn Bitcoins, which increases their supply.

The demand side of the equation works the same for Bitcoin as it does for gold and other resources. The more people that want Bitcoin, the more the price of a coin increases.

2. The Media and Peers

Research has shown that media coverage is one of the biggest influencers of the price of Bitcoin. The more media coverage it gets, the more people are aware of it and may invest in it. Positive media coverage typically causes price increases, while negative coverage results in drops in prices.

This pattern doesn’t only apply to media. Opinions and…
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Convoy: “This Chart Has Been The Driver Of Asset Prices Over The Last Decade”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Monthly Commentary Howard Wang of Convoy Investments

Tightening money supply

This year has been a process of normalization in financial conditions. Below I show the estimated money supply in the US, which rose fairly steadily before we saw a spike in 2008. That spike lasted until the end of 2014, after which the Fed began to withdraw money from the system. US money supply shrank for the first time in almost a century.

This chart has been the fundamental driver of asset prices over the last decade and will likely continue to drive the markets until the Fed normalizes their monetary policy. On average, more money chasing the same assets means higher prices while less money means lower prices. Below I show the relationship of growth in the US money supply to the long-term return of assets.

The falling money supply since 2014 is driven by a combination of rising rates and direct unwinding of quantitative easing. Below I show the duration adjusted Fed balance sheet. I believe the trend of shrinking money supply in the system will continue for some time to come. This adjustment is a painful but necessary process for healthier markets and economies.

Below I provide an update on a commentary I wrote on the subject of money supply and credit from a few years ago.

* * *

The price of anything is measured in the form of dollars per unit whether it is $/share, $/bond, $/house, $/barrel, etc

(or whatever your base currency is). The price of everything comes down to those two things, supply of assets and

the quantity of money chasing those assets. More money chasing fewer assets means higher prices, and vice versa.

Asset price = quantity of money/supply of assets

While there are some exceptions such as a disruption in oil production, the growth in supply of assets tends to be relatively stable in the short run. So it is changes in the quantity of money that drives short term asset swings. There are two main ways in…
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Zero Hedge

Will The US Slap Sanctions On Nord Stream 2?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

There is a growing push in the U.S. Congress to slap sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

The pipeline under construction would carry Russian natural gas to Germany, and has been a lightning rod of controversy both in Europe and across the Atlantic. Many governments and officials from Eastern Europe fear deeper dependence on Russia for gas supplies, a sentiment echoed by the U.S. government. Meanwhile, many in Western Europe are less concerned,...



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Phil's Favorites

US is already fighting a conflict with Iran - an economic war that is hurting the wrong people

 

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US is already fighting a conflict with Iran – an economic war that is hurting the wrong people

Courtesy of David Cortright, University of Notre Dame

Many are worried about the risk of war with Iran after the Trump administration leaked discussions of a troop deployment in response to claimed threats to U.S. warships in the region.

And in r...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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