Archive for 2018

Visualizing The Population Pulse Of A Manhattan Workday

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In cities around the world, the offices and storefronts of the downtown core fill up with people during the workday to keep the wheels of commerce turning.

But, as Visual Capitalist's Nick Routley shows below, nowhere is this phenomenon as pronounced as in Manhattan, which swells to an incredible four million people during work hours.

Today’s animation, created by Justin Fung, is a dramatic, eye-opening look at the “pulse” of America’s largest city.

Also, check out the fancy interactive version of this visualization.

This dramatic shift in population on a daily basis is made possible by Manhattan’s unparalleled carrying capacity, or its ability to facilitate an inflow of millions of people who come for all sorts of reasons. Many of the metropolises with the most dramatic daytime population spikes, such as Washington, D.C. and New York, also have much higher rates of transit ridership than the average city.

Not surprisingly, three surrounding boroughs have the largest daytime population decreases in the entire country.

OUTSIDE THE BIG APPLE

While many parts of Manhattan remain lively in the evening, many downtown cores around the country simply empty out.

This stark contrast is particularly noticeable in low-rise communities with large employment hubs such as Redmond, Washington or Palo Alto, California, both of which are home to sprawling tech campuses.

In the case of the nation’s capital, the city is a powerful magnet for talent. As well, Washington’s unique position between state lines means that people have the option of residing in Virginia or Maryland and easily commuting in.

HIGHER RESTING HEARTBEAT

Thanks to a renewed interest in urban living, many cities are starting to see an uptick in the number of residents who choose to skip the long commute and just live where the action is.

This trend is particularly pronounced in Canadian cities such as Vancouver and Toronto. The latter city’s downtown population is expected to double over the next 25 years, while Vancouver’s sustained real estate boom has added tens of thousands of residents to the downtown area.

In the U.S., Seattle has demonstrated significant urban residential growth. Since 2010, the population of downtown and surrounding neighborhoods has grown by an impressive 18%, and 1-in-5 people moving to the city choose to live in the downtown area.

The 2020 U.S. Census will provide a much better clearer picture of how this trend is playing out.





Weekly Market Recap Jun 24, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

This was a second week of consolidation with generally good action in the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ.  The S&P 500 and DJIA suffered a bit more as TRADE WARS!!!(tm) fear affect companies in those indexes more than the companies in the former 2 indexes. Quite a few “gap ups” and “gap downs” this week as news overnight weighed on indexes.  A sample of this week’s fun:

After Beijing’s retaliation against U.S. planned tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports, Trump asked U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer late Monday to identify $200 billion more in Chinese products that could be subject to tariffs of 10%. The U.S. president also threatened to find $200 billion more worth of goods if China tried to retaliate against those additional tariffs.

“We’re still analyzing how much the trade policies, if they go through, would impact valuations and fundamentals. If tariffs continue to rise, that is a negative, and it could derail some of the confidence. However, so many issues like this either don’t end up happening, or they don’t happen in the worst-case scenario. A lot of what we’ve seen is just rhetoric, and if you try and trade off things like that, you’ll likely be wrong,” said Lance Humphrey, executive director of global multi-assets at USAA.

Seems like the Chinese market is taking these threats more seriously then U.S. markets.

For the week the S&P 500 closed down 0.9% while the NASDAQ retreated 0.3%.

Economic data was not market moving.

Worth showing the divergence of small caps which mostly are domestically focused (Russell 2000) vs the Dow Jones Industrial Average which is full of companies who sell internationally – here is a 1 month chart. (click to enlarge).  R2K up 3.5% vs DJIA -0.9%, in just 30 days!

Oil jumped Friday after members of the OPEC and other major producers struck a deal that would result in an effective rise in production of around 600,000…
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Visualizing The Global Export Economy In One Map

By RaulHowMuch.net

Visualizing the Global Export Economy in One Map

President Trump has loudly complained for quite some time about U.S. trade deficits with the world, most recently following the latest G7 summit in Canada. Trump’s rhetoric implies that other countries are enjoying massive surpluses at the expense of American workers. This got us thinking about how the U.S. actually compares as an exporter in the world economy, so we create our newest map.

Source: HowMuch.net

We got our numbers from the World Trade Organization (navigate to the Statistics Database to locate the original data). The WTO tracks the total value of physical goods each country sends across its borders. Remember, these numbers exclude services—we are only focused on physical items. To create our map, we changed the size of the country depending on the value of exports, and we likewise added a shade of blue for easy reference. This approach highlights the outliers and identifies several key trends.

Top Ten Countries with the Most Exports in 2017 ($B)

1. China: $2,263B

2. United States: $1,547B

3. Germany: $1,448B

4. Japan: $698B

5. Netherlands: $652B

6. South Korea: $574B

7. Hong Kong: $550B

8. France: $535B

9. Italy: $506B

10. United Kingdom: $445B

The most obvious insight that our map contains about international trade is how unequal it is. A few countries dominate the very top of the list, and everybody else falls far behind. The top exporter, China, has 32% more exports than the second-place Americans. The top three countries generate more exports than the rest of the top 10 combined ($5,258B vs $3,960B). You can see this inequality on our map in how China, the U.S. and Germany dominate the visual forefront.

The second interesting takeaway is that there are several surprise countries, including most notably the Netherlands in the 5th spot ($652B). What could the Dutch possibly export to the rest of the world that would land them so high on our list (and give their country such a prominent…
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US Futures Slump As Trump Drops New Bomb In Trade War; China Continues To “Weaponize” Yuan

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Update: US Equity futures are down following the reports that Trump is planning to restrict Chinese investment in US companies…

And while Chinese stocks are up marginally, Yuan continues to slide as chatter escalates that China is "weaponizing" the Yuan in retaliation to Trump's actions…

As we detailed previously, this is a notable devaluation…

And most notably it is very focused against the USDollar as USDCNH decouples significantly from the Renminbi basket…

*  *  *

While most analysis has been focused on the non-tit-for-tat trade tariff responses to Trump's $450 billion tariff threats against China, it is the Trump administration that is preparing to fire the next salvo in the trade war, and as The FT notes, this move could have even greater long-term consequences for the economic relationship between the US and China than tariffs.

The FT reports that according to officials and people briefed on the discussions, the administration has decided to restrict China’s ability to invest in or acquire US companies in the industries identified by Beijing in its so-called Made in China 2025 plan.

The Trump administration appears likely to invoke an act that allows US presidents broad powers in the event of a national economic emergency, which the president is likely to declare.

The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) dates to the 1970s and has in the past been used mostly to impose sanctions on countries such as North Korea and Iran. 

Administration officials argue that the restrictions are needed because the US is in an existential innovation war with China over key technologies that will define the future of the world’s two largest economies. 

Although the exact scope of the investment measures is unknown, this level of dramatic escalation implies the China hawks have taken the upper hand in The White House, as is clear by Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro's comments – aimed directly at Xi's goal of leading the world…
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Hundreds Of Mutilated Skulls Found Under Mexico City Confirm Ancient Tales Of Brutal Human Sacrifice

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The priest quickly sliced into the captive's torso and removed his still-beating heart. That sacrifice, one among thousands performed in the sacred city of Tenochtitlan, would feed the gods and ensure the continued existence of the world. -Science Magazine

 Archeologists have uncovered extensive evidence of ritual human sacrifice and an ominous "skull wall" built in the 14th-century Aztek city of Tenochtitlan – located in what is now the center of Mexico City. Discovered in the 1970's when city electrical workers stumbled across a circular statue of the dismembered goddess Coyolxauhqui, archeologists discovered that much of the main structure – the Templo Mayor, was intact. 

The Mexica built it in seven phases between 1325 and 1521, each corresponding to the reign of a king. Each phase was built over and around the earlier ones, embedding the Templo Mayor's history within it like a set of Russian nesting dolls. Although the Spanish destroyed the temple's final phase, the smaller temples from earlier reigns were paved over but left relatively unscathed. -Science Magazine

Human sacrifice was a common theme in Mesoamerican belief systems, which included the Maya of Southern Mexico and the Mexica, a subset of the larger Aztek culture which flourished in Central Mexico. They believed that the gods could only be appeased through constant human sacrifice, and the sun would cease to rise if they stopped - ushering in the apocalypse. Those slaughtered included enemy warriors and slaves bought specifically to be sacrificed.

Once a doomed victim had their still-beating heart carved out, priests would carry the lifeless body to a ritual space – then decapitate it face up using "obsidian blades sharper than today's surgical steel," according to Lizzie Wade of Science Magazine. The Mexica priests then used their sharp knives to slice away the skin and muscles of the victim's head before carving giant holes in the side of it and shoving them onto a pole next to other sacrifices on a giant rack over 120-feet across called the tzompantli

The skulls were bound for


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Trump Drops New Bomb In Trade War: Plans To Restrict China Investment In US Firms

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

While most analysis has been focused on the non-tit-for-tat trade tariff responses to Trump's $450 billion tariff threats against China, it is the Trump administration that is preparing to fire the next salvo in the trade war, and as The FT notes, this move could have even greater long-term consequences for the economic relationship between the US and China than tariffs.

The FT reports that according to officials and people briefed on the discussions, the administration has decided to restrict China’s ability to invest in or acquire US companies in the industries identified by Beijing in its so-called Made in China 2025 plan.

The Trump administration appears likely to invoke an act that allows US presidents broad powers in the event of a national economic emergency, which the president is likely to declare.

The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) dates to the 1970s and has in the past been used mostly to impose sanctions on countries such as North Korea and Iran. 

Administration officials argue that the restrictions are needed because the US is in an existential innovation war with China over key technologies that will define the future of the world’s two largest economies. 

Although the exact scope of the investment measures is unknown, this level of dramatic escalation implies the China hawks have taken the upper hand in The White House, as is clear by Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro's comments – aimed directly at Xi's goal of leading the world in sectors from aerospace to AI…

“China has targeted America’s industries of the future, and President Trump understands better than anyone that if China successfully captures these emerging industries of the future, America will have no economic future, while its national security will be severely compromised.”

However, as we recently noted, China inbound investment has already collapsed in the last six months. According to research firm Rhodium Group, Chinese companies completed acquisitions and greenfield investments worth only $1.8 billion, a 92% drop over the past year, and the lowest level in seven years.

But there…
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John McAfee ‘Outs’ “Wanted Sex Trafficker” In Post-Poisoning Tweetstorm

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Update  2: That did not take long. McAfee now claims to know the identity of the motorcyclist and "I want him" explaining that he is a "wanted sex trafficker."

OK. The guy's name is John D. Nichols, lives in Burbank at 1687 Oakway Lane. The man is a wanted sex trafficker. And I want him. I nicknamed him Alexander, after a similar dude I once met.

— John McAfee (@officialmcafee) June 24, 2018

*  *  *

Update 1: It appears John McAfee has a suspect in mind and is offering a reward for details…

$5,000 reward for anyone who can provided the full name, address and phone number of this man. No questions asked. Your confidentiality is assured. DM ME. pic.twitter.com/WOT2cK6FqE

— John McAfee (@officialmcafee) June 24, 2018

*  *  *

John McAfee's "enemies" recently tried to poison him, the cybersecurity pioneer claims. However, John McAfee isn't as easy to kill as his myriad "enemies" had hoped. To help drive this point home, the creator of the eponymous computer security software tweeted an alarming picture of himself lying in a hospital bed with an oxygen tube affixed to his mouth.

McAfee

His tweet came accompanied with a warning to the unnamed parties who allegedly carried out the attack: "You will soon understand the true meaning of wrath."

And for those who did this – You will soon understand the true meaning of wrath. I know exactly who you are. Youh had better be gone. pic.twitter.com/URgz5BtMLF

— John McAfee (@officialmcafee) June 22, 2018

My wife @theemrsmcafee and I with a message to my incompetent enemies pic.twitter.com/s7rT105OWy

— John McAfee (@officialmcafee) June 22, 2018

I know exactly who you are." So if you or somebody you know was…
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Antifa Calls NYU Prof “A Hero” For Doxxing ICE Employees

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Grace Gottschling via Campus Reform,

Antifa members are praising a New York University faculty member for creating a database of more than 1,500 ICE employees, which multiple online platforms have since removed for violating "doxxing" policies.

Sam Lavigne, a “Something in Residence” at NYU, promoted the list on Tuesday via Twitter and other platforms, drawing the attention of Github, which proceeded to remove the list from its site after determining that it constituted “doxxing and harassment, and violating a third party’s privacy.”

The now-defunct database included the name, title, and the state and county location of 1,595 U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents and employees, which Lavigne had culled from information on LinkedIn.

“We removed the project because it violates our community guidelines,” a GitHub spokesperson told The Verge. “In general, we have policies against use of GitHub for doxxing and harassment, and violating a third party’s privacy.”

Doxxing refers to the public act of releasing personal identifying information about an individual or organization, typically with the intent of enabling others to harass or threaten the target.

Before its removal, however, the database was copied and republished on multiple platforms, where it was noticed and promulgated by members of Antifa, the “anti-fascist” network known for its use of violence at political rallies.

“Some enterprising hero archived the ICE employees listed on linkedin,” Nebraska Antifa tweeted, providing an archived link to the original list.

“As ICE continues to ramp up its inhumane surveillance and detention efforts, I believe it’s important to document what’s happening, and by whom, in any way we can.” Lavigne declared in a Medium articlethat has also been removed, but which remains available in an archived version.

“While I don’t have a precise idea of what should be done with this data set, I leave it here with the hope that researchers, journalists, and activists will find it useful,” Lavigne wrote. 

“I find it helpful to remember that as much as internet companies use data to spy on and exploit their users, we can at times


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BofA’s “Charts Of Darkness”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With just 42 days trading days left until the S&P500 bull market becomes the longer of all time, Morgan Stanley's chief cross-asset strategist, Andrew Sheets, writes that investors are now more sanguine about how much time they have until the next recession than at any point since 2010. "We’re 8 ½ years into an expansion, and many investors finally are finally confident that there is plenty of time left on the clock." Sheets also notes that in client conversations, China is rarely mentioned as a growth concern (after causing angst for much of this period). All this is taking place against a backdrop in which key market elements are vastly different from a year ago (as we discussed earlier).

Morgan Stanley is not the only bank to urge clients to turn more skeptical, if not outright bearish.

As Bank of America Chief Investment Officer Michael Hartnett writes in his latest Thundering Word report titled suggestively enough "Charts of Darkness fo Apocalypse Dow"…

… "relative to consensus we remain bearish on financial assets" and notes the following:

we believe peak asset Prices in 2018 are consistent with peak investor Positioning, peak corporate Profit expectations, and peak Policy stimulus. We believe the peaking of the 3Ps is occurring in a late-cycle macro & market backdrop (in 42 trading days the S&P500 bull market becomes the longest of all time). We forecast low & volatile single digit gains for stocks, low single-digit losses for bonds, and relatively strong 2018 for cash, commodities and the US dollar.

And whereas Morgan Stanley's Sheet laid out a qualitative explanation for his skepticism, Hartnett takes us through a visual landscape of his "charts of darkness", which lay out the primary reasons for his bearishness, including:

  • Quantitative Tightening takes liquidity growth negative in 6-8 months,
  • trade war takes US tariffs to highest since mid-1970s,
  • lead EPS indicators continue to weaken,
  • EU doomed until German fiscal capitulation,
  • US yield curve inversion just 36bps away

These are the "five profit and policy reasons" he remains bearish.

Presenting, Bank of America's Charts of Darkness

1. Quantitative
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BofA’s “Charts Of Darkness For Apocalypse Dow”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With just 42 days trading days left until the S&P500 bull market becomes the longer of all time, Morgan Stanley’s chief cross-asset strategist, Andrew Sheets, writes that investors are now more sanguine about how much time they have until the next recession than at any point since 2010. “We’re 8 ½ years into an expansion, and many investors finally are finally confident that there is plenty of time left on the clock.” Sheets also notes that in client conversations, China is rarely mentioned as a growth concern (after causing angst for much of this period). All this is taking place against a backdrop in which key market elements are vastly different from a year ago (as we discussed earlier).

Morgan Stanley is not the only bank to urge clients to turn more skeptical, if not outright bearish.

As Bank of America Chief Investment Officer Michael Hartnett writes in his latest Thundering Word report titled suggestively enough “Charts of Darkness fo Apocalypse Dow”…

… “relative to consensus we remain bearish on financial assets” and notes the following:

we believe peak asset Prices in 2018 are consistent with peak investor Positioning, peak corporate Profit expectations, and peak Policy stimulus. We believe the peaking of the 3Ps is occurring in a late-cycle macro & market backdrop (in 42 trading days the S&P500 bull market becomes the longest of all time). We forecast low & volatile single digit gains for stocks, low single-digit losses for bonds, and relatively strong 2018 for cash, commodities and the US dollar.

And whereas Morgan Stanley’s Sheet laid out a qualitative explanation for his skepticism, Hartnett takes us through a visual landscape of his “charts of darkness”, which lay out the primary reasons for his bearishness, including:

  • Quantitative Tightening takes liquidity growth negative in 6-8 months,
  • trade war takes US tariffs to highest since mid-1970s,
  • lead EPS indicators continue to weaken,
  • EU doomed until German fiscal capitulation,
  • US yield curve inversion just 36bps away

These are the “five profit and policy reasons” he remains bearish.

Presenting, Bank of America’s Charts of Darkness

1. Quantitative Tightening: YTD G3 central bank asset purchases of $125bn well below $1.5tn run rate of 2017; we estimate liquidity growth turns negative in 6-8 months; Fed tightening always triggers an event (Chart 2).

2. Trade
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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.

By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS, although on many months the (balance sheet) B/S does not actually shrink by this full amount which depends on the redemption schedule) and by end-Q4 markets also experienced some of the largest volatility and drawdowns in nearly a decade.

As Nomura&...



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ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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