Archive for 2018

The Street Reacts To BlackBerry’s Cylance Acquisition

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The Street Reacts To BlackBerry's Cylance Acquisition

Canada-based BlackBerry Ltd (NYSE: BB) reached an agreement last week to acquire Cylance, a threat detection cybersecurity company with a specialty in artificial intelligence. Here’s how the sell-side reacted to BlackBerry’s largest M&A move to date.  

The Analysts

CIBC Institutional Equity Research’s Todd Coupland upgraded BlackBerry from Neutral to Outperformer with an unchanged $14 price target.

Canaccord Genuity’s T. Michael Walkley maintains at Hold, unchanged $11 price target.

TD Securities’ Daniel Chan maintains at Buy, unchanged $14 price target.

MKM Partners’ Michael Genovese maintains at Neutral, fair value estimate lowered from $12 to $10.50.

CIBC: BlackBerry’s Strategy Will ‘Play Out’

BlackBerry operates three growth segments, Coupland said in the upgrade note: vehicle security through QNX, securing devices for the Enterprise of Things and securing the end points with Spark.

The Cylance acquisition will add new technologies to the EoT and Spark platforms and help BlackBerry’s strategy “play out in the coming years,” the analyst said. The growth outlook for the three segments “improved” after the Cylance announcement, he said. 

Canaccord: More Details Needed

BlackBerry likely paid less than seven times forward revenue to acquire Cylance, which implies a “premium deal multiple,” Walkley said. Any synergies are unlikely to be realized until the post-merger platform integration is complete, he said.

A change in stance may be warranted in the future and remains conditional on management offering more commentary on the pro forma financial impact from the acquisition, in Canaccord’s view. 

The deal will be “well received” by the market, as it will likely speed up the company’s strategy of becoming a leader in securing the EoT market, the analyst said. 

Related Link: Earnings Quality, Growth Concerns Sideline Sell-Side On BlackBerry

TD: Complementary Transaction

BlackBerry’s core strengths are evident in financial services, government and other regulated industries, Chan said in a note. The Cylance acquisition should open new markets for BlackBerry, including health care in North America, he said.

Cylance’s business has 15-percent exposure to international markets, and BlackBerry can leverage its higher exposure

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US Shale Firms To Spend $100 Million On West Texas And New Mexico Improvements

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Over a dozen top US energy firms have agreed to devote $100 million towards much needed improvements in West Texas and New Mexico, in order to help the regions cope with shortfalls in health care, education and civic infrastructure in the wake of the shale oil and gas boom, the group said on Sunday. 

Chevron, EOG Resources, Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell are among 17 companies backing the Permian Strategic Partnership, as the consortium is called, Don Evans, a former U.S. government official and energy executive helping launch the group, told Reuters on Saturday. -Reuters

The funds will be used to address labor and housing shortages, according to Reuters, along with traffic congestion caused by companies converging on the Permian Basin – the nation's largest oilfield, where billions of dollars' worth of oil and gas are expected to be extracted over the next several decades, according to experts. 

"t’s a significant amount of money, but these are huge challenges," said Evans, former US Secretary of Commerce from Midland, Texas. "We don’t have enough teachers. We don’t have enough doctors," he added. 

The consortium will work with regional and federal officials, as well as nonprofit groups, companies and educators in Texas and New Mexico. Evans – who became CEO of producer Tom Brown Inc. after starting his career in the Permian, joined the George W. Bush administration as Secretary of Commerce. 

The group is assembling plans to hold meetings in communities across the region, so “everyone have a voice” in the undertaking. There is no timetable or plan for how the initial contribution will be spent. The group is recruiting staff and searching for office space, he said.

In the last decade, the region’s many pockets of oil and low production costs have led to gold rush-like conditions in the Permian. Companies are pouring staff and equipment into the oilfield, which is expected to pump 3.7 million barrels of oil per day by December, four times its rate in 2010, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. -Reuters

The unemployment rate in Midland hit 2.1 percent in October, vs. the national rate of 3.7 percent, leaving local employers –…
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“Brutally Cold Temperatures” Threaten To Devastate Black Friday Sales 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As investors eagerly await channel check reports on this upcoming Black Friday shopping bonanza to confirm the US consumer is still propping up the economy, there could be some unexpectedly bad news that may disappoint Wall Street.

First, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has released new weather models that indicate a massive blast of arctic air could spread across the mid-Atlantic and North East regions during the upcoming holiday week, crippling shopping intentions and keeping millions of Americans away from their favorite retail outlet of choice.

ECMWF- Possibility of record cold temperatures through Black Friday 

The brutally cold conditions could affect more than 120 million consumers during one of the busiest shopping days of the year.

"A passing storm system will drag the coldest air of the season into the Northeast just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday. Temperatures will range from 20 to 30 degrees below average for the time of year later this week, leading to brutally cold conditions for many on both the Thanksgiving holiday and Black Friday. While colder temperatures and recent snow may trigger shoppers to get in the holiday spirit, brutally cold temperatures and wind chills may stifle some shoppers’ plans to venture out on Thanksgiving night and Black Friday for those doorbuster sales," said Ed Vallee, head meteorologist at Vallee Weather Consulting.

Weather Prediction Center- "Highs 20-35 degrees below normal" 

Wall Street has been struggling with uncertainty over a split Congress, monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, tariffs, trade wars, peak corporate earnings, and the risk of a US slowdown next year if not outright recession.

However, the next round of bad news could emerge from the US consumer, as Lipper Alpha Insights recently warned that retailers could experience weak holiday sales. Add to that weather models pointing to a mini ice age for much of…
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What Market Turmoil: Sotheby’s, Christie’s Sell $2BN In Monster Week For Auctions

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Even as capital market are rocked by ever greater spikes in asset price volatility – most recently in nat gas and crude oil – at a time when BTFD no longer seems to be working, forcing professional traders to consider apocalyptic scenarios, with Bank of America even contemplating what would unleash the next "flash crash"…

… it has yet to impact the ultra-high end luxury market according to the latest data from Christie’s and Sotheby’s auction houses, which collectively sold a near-record $2 billion in art in what Bloomberg dubbed a "monster week" for auctions.

In the perennial race between the two most famous auctioneers, Christie’s sold $1.1 billion in art this past week, while Sotheby’s moved $835 million, plus more in jewelry and watches, according to Bloomberg.

While it is notable that the high end market remains completely immune to gyrations in the market, what was perhaps most remarkable about last week's haul is that it was padded by Christie's $90.3 million sale of David Hockney’s “Portrait of an Artist (Pool with Two Figures)”, who eclipsed Jeff Koons as the most expensive living artist to sell at auction.

The big winner is billionaire currency trader Joe Lewis who was the seller of the Hockney. The Hopper came from the collection of deceased businessman Barney A. Ebsworth. The buyers weren’t disclosed.

As for Hockney, the eighty-one-year-old British painter won’t see a cent of the proceeds. In the U.S., artists aren’t entitled to royalties when a piece changes hands; they profit only the first time their work sells. The Hockney record topples Jeff Koons, whose balloon dogs sold, also at Christie’s, for a measly $58.4 million, in 2013.

A new record for American art was also set by the company with the $92 million sale of Edward Hopper’s "Chop Suey."

Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg the highlight at Sotheby’s was the sale of a pearl and diamond necklace once owned by Marie Antoinette. The jewels sold for $36.2 million.

The auction house said it’s had a 15% increase over last year…
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Goldman: “The Fed Has Never Engineered A Soft Landing From Beyond Full Employment”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Looking at the coming 2019, Goldman's economists have retained their cheerful outlook and despite recent hints of an economic slowdown, they expect the Fed to tighten five times between now and the end of next year (4 in 2019 including once in December), lifting the funds rate to 3.25%-3.5%. And since Goldman also expects 10Y Treasury yields to peak at 3.5% during 2H 2019 and decline to 3.3% in 2020, this means that it is Goldman's official forecast that "the 2s-10s portion of the yield curve will invert in 2H next year."

Inversion will likely be problem for the economy, and certainly for financial conditions. As the latest Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) indicated, banks said that should the yield curve invert, they would tighten lending standards, as they would view a moderate yield curve inversion both as signaling a “less favorable or more uncertain” economic outlook and as likely to reduce the profitability of lending.

Which is why while Goldman remains an outlier when it comes to its projection for the number of rates hikes in the next 14 months, the bank now admits that in contrast to 2017, "in 2018 the Fed’s policy actions were matched by a large tightening in broader financial conditions." This tightening is only set to continue and may well lead to a "break" in the market that could force the Fed to end its tightening cycle, depending on whether or not the "Fed put" is triggered.

Meanwhile, Goldman acknowledges that the recent stimulus-driven growth spurt is coming to an end, and in a note released on Sunday, chief economist Jan Hatzius writes that "growth is likely to slow significantly next year", from a recent pace of 3½%+ to roughly 1¾% by end-2019, with tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal stimulus the key drivers of the deceleration:

The tightening in financial conditions and the fading of the fiscal stimulus are the key drivers of the growth deceleration we expect next year. Our estimate of the sum of the growth impulses from these two factors declines from a ¾pp boost in 2018Q3 to a ½pp net drag by mid-2019, as

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Cleveland Browns Interested In Interviewing Condoleezza Rice For Head Coaching Job

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Browns general manager John Dorsey said last week that he might be interested in hiring a woman to become the new head coach of the struggling Cleveland Browns, who, after their abysmal 2017 season, are currently ranked dead last in the AFC North. And according to ESPN, Dorsey has a name in mind: Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

An interview with Rice would set a historic precedent, allowing Condi to add another “first” to her resume: In addition to being the first black female secretary of state, she would become the first woman to ever interview for an NFL head coaching job.

The Browns would like to interview former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice for their head-coaching job, a league source tells ESPN.

If the Browns follow through on it, Rice would become the first woman to interview for an NFL head-coaching job.


A potential interview hardly means the Browns will hire Rice, but they are interested in talking to her about the job and seeing what she could bring to the position and the organization.

“She’s an amazing person,” one Browns source told ESPN.

The interview process could even lead to Rice becoming more involved in the organization in an official capacity or as a consultant.

Rice has been featured in a Browns jersey in NFL ads. There has also been speculation that she could be a candidate for NFL commissioner following the departure of Roger Goodell. Rice has also been involved in collegiate athletics, including a commission on college basketball that recommended major changes to the sport this year.

As ESPN reminds us, Cleveland’s interest in Condi follows several other high-profile hires of female coaching staff, including the San Antonio Spurs’ hiring of Becky Hammon as an assistant coach, the Buffalo Bills hiring of Kathryn Smith as a quality control assistant, the Oakland Raiders hiring of Kelsey Martinez to their strength staff, and the San Francisco 49ers hiring of Katie Sowers as an offensive assistant.

The news was understandably met with a mix of shock and amazement on twitter…

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Foundation Flooded With Inquiries After Offering $10,000 For Workers To Move To Tulsa

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

An Oklahoma billionaire's foundation is offering remote workers $10,000 to relocate to Tulsa. And though such a move would require Brooklyn-based "social media professionals" and freelance gender issues reporters to swap their avocado toast for barbecue, it looks as if the offer is generating significant interest.

According to the Omaha World-Herald, roughly 1,000 people have already reached out to the George Kaiser Family Foundation's "Tulsa Remote" program to ask about its offer to pay people from out of state $10,000 to relocate to Tulsa for a year – a response the foundation described as "phenomenal."

Some of the inquiries have even come from outside the US, the foundation said.


Unfortunately, only 20 to 25 people will receive grants, with the first batch coming early next year, and the rest coming in the following months.

Those who qualify for the grant and agree to the move won't receive the money all at once; rather, they'll receive a $500 monthly stipend, $2,500 for relocation expenses, and another $1,500 at the end of the year. But to sweeten the offer, the transplants would have the option of living in a trendy arts district with discounted rent and free utilities for the first three months of their stay.

But one potential drawback is the money received through the grant will count as taxable income.

On the downside, it will all count as taxable income. But the point is to convince people to give Tulsa a try, said Aaron Bolzle, program manager for Tulsa Remote.

According to the program's manager, a "successful" outcome would involve at least some of the participants becoming so enmeshed in the fabric of the city that they decide to stick around.

"Success for us," Bolzle said, "would be seeing the majority of participants become so entrenched in the community that they feel compelled to stay in Tulsa after the year is over."

With so many applications already received at and more being filed almost constantly Wednesday, Bolzle and his team can afford to be selective in choosing the recipients. There’s no set schedule for choosing them, he said.

"We’re looking for

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YouTube Is Down Globally… Again

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

No apology or comment from YouTube yet, but it appears the site is down for millions worldwide…


Some are getting an odd message…

Others nothing…

This outage comes just a month after most of the world's Internet users lost access to YouTube for several hours after an attempt by Pakistan's government to block access domestically affected other countries.

As ABC News reports, an Internet expert explained that Sunday's problems arose when a Pakistani telecommunications company accidentally identified itself to Internet computers as the world's fastest route to YouTube. But instead of serving up videos of skateboarding dogs, it sent the traffic into oblivion.

On Friday, the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority ordered 70 Internet service providers to block access to, because of anti-Islamic movies on the video-sharing site, which is owned by Google.

The authority did not specify what the offensive material was, but a PTA official said the ban concerned a trailer for an upcoming film by Dutch lawmaker Geert Wilders, who has said he plans to release a movie portraying Islam as fascist and prone to inciting violence against women and homosexuals.

The block was intended to cover only Pakistan, but extended to about two-thirds of the global Internet population, starting at 1:47 p.m. ET Sunday, according to Renesys Corp., a Manchester, N.H., firm that keeps track of the pathways of the Internet for telecommunications companies and other clients.

With nothing to watch, Social media has erupted – demanding that it is fixed…

Bear Market Growl Grows Louder

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Lance Roberts via,

Several months ago, I penned an article about the problems with “passive indexing” and specifically the problem of the “algorithms” that are driving roughly 80% of the trading in the markets. To wit:

“When the ‘robot trading algorithms’  begin to reverse (selling rallies rather than buying dips), it will not be a slow and methodical process, but rather a stampede with little regard to price, valuation, or fundamental measures as the exit will become very narrow.”

Fortunately, up to this point, there has not been a triggering of margin debt, as of yet, which remains the “gasoline”to fuel a rapid market decline. As we have discussed previously, margin debt (i.e. leverage) is a double-edged sword. It fuels the bull market higher as investors “leverage up” to buy more equities, but it also burns “white hot”on the way down as investors are forced to liquidate to cover margin calls. Despite the two sell-offs this year, leverage has only marginally been reduced.

If you overlay that the S&P 500 index you can see more clearly the magnitude of the reversions caused by a “leverage unwind.”

The reason I bring this up is that, so far, the market has not declined enough to “trigger” margin calls.

At least not yet.

But exactly where is that level? 

There is no set rule, but there is a point at which the broker-dealers become worried about being able to collect on the “margin lines” they have extended. My best guess is that point lies somewhere around a 20% decline from the peak. The correction from intraday peak to trough in 2015-2016 was nearly 20%, but on a closing basis, the draft was about 13.5%. The corrections earlier this year, and currently, have both run close to 10% on a closing basis.

My best guess is that if the market breaks the October lows, which given the current state of the market is a very high probability, we will likely see an accelerated “sell off” as the realization a “bear market” starts to set in. If the such a decline triggers a 20% fall from the peak, which is around…
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‘’ Goes Dark After “Catastrophic Loss Event” In NatGas “Rogue Wave”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Shorting vol (naked) with "Other People's Money…"? What could possibly go wrong?

Q: Have I lost all the money in account, then?

A: Yes

"Stocks are great, until they aren't," proclaims the now 'dark' website of Tampa-based, explaining to 'high net worth investors' that "options are better but most make the mistake of buying them."

And so, the thoughtful-looking, wealthy grey-haired gentlemen of today should given their Fed-earned money to the managed accounts of, which touted itself as premier and highly experienced commodities options trading firm. The firm’s president and head trader, James Cordier, explained in a recent interview: “Our goal is to take an aggressive vehicle and manage it conservatively.”

Unfortunately for the clients' managed accounts, Cordier's actions were anything but 'conservative'.

On November 15, 2018, notified its investors in an email entitled “Catastrophic Loss Event” that it not only lost all their money, but that they would also owe money to Intl FC Stone for margin calls.

I am writing to give you an update on the situation here with your account.

We have spent the week unwinding our short natural gas call position as expediently as possible.

Today which was to be the final day of liquidation, the market flared as prices appear to have been caught in a "short squeeze."

The speed at which it took place is truly beyond anything I have seen in my career. It overran our risk control systems and left us at the mercy of the market.

In short, it was a rogue wave and it overwhelmed us.

Unfortunately, this has resulted in a catastrophic loss.

Our clearing firm, FC Stone now requires us to liquidate all positions. We hoped to have this done today. If not, it will be completed tomorrow.

Your account could potentially be facing a debit balance as of tomorrow. will be processing fee credits over the course of the coming days to help alleviate debit balances. What these will be will be determined after all positions are cleared.

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Zero Hedge

Visualizing How Much Oil Is In An Electric Vehicle?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

When most people think about oil and natural gas, the first thing that comes to mind is the gas in the tank of their car. But, as Visual Capitalist's Nicholas LePan notes, there is actually much more to oil’s role, than meets the eye...

Oil, along with natural gas, has hundreds of different uses in a modern vehicle through petrochemicals.

Today’s infographic comes to us from American Fuel & Petrochemicals Manufacturers, and covers why oil is a critical mate...

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Phil's Favorites

Assange's new indictment: Espionage and the First Amendment


Embed from Getty Images


Assange’s new indictment: Espionage and the First Amendment

Courtesy of Ofer Raban, University of Oregon

Julian Assange, the co-founder of WikiLeaks, has been charged by the U.S. Department of Justice with a slew of Espionage Act violations that could keep him in prison for the rest of his life.

The new indictment expands an earlier one charging Assange with conspiring w...

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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ... more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...

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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!

Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!

Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


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More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>