Author Archive for kimblechartingsolutions

Global Stock Market Indexes Flash Bearish “Look Alike” Patterns?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Over the past several weeks, I’ve shared several examples of key stock market indexes and indicators hitting long-term resistance. Today, we’ll do the same… but with a much wider lens. We’ll look at 9 different stock market indexes in the developed markets that look concerning.

When a stock or market index hits resistance, it has three possibilities: 1) to break out above resistance  2) to move sideways / consolidate near resistance  3) to turn lower and pullback or correct.

In the 9-pack of charts below, we are seeing bearish “look-alike” patterns emerging. And in each case, it looks like the given markets are turning lower (point 1).

The markets considered include 6 U.S. indexes and 3 European, including the S&P 500(NYSEARCA: SPY), Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA: DIA), Nasdaq 100(NASDAQ: QQQ), Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA: IWM), Mid-Caps IndexValue Line IndexGerman DAXFrench CAC 40, and London’s FTSE 100. It’s a pretty good glimpse at a portion of the developed markets.

If these markets see follow-through selling, investors could be in for a deeper decline.

9-Pack of Global Stock Market Indexes – Bears Growling?

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This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original post CLICK HERE

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Banks Creating Pattern Similar To 2007 Highs?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

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The left chart above looks at the Bank Index (BKX) over the past 13-years. In 2007, the index diverged with the broad market as it was creating a bearish descending triangle. Once support of the descending triangle broke, selling pressure ramped up. This pattern took place while “interest rates were actually moving higher, which is often good for banks.”

This year the bank index has been diverging from the broad market while forming a bearish descending triangle. As this divergence is taking place, “interest rates are moving higher.”

Banks became a “Canary” at the 2007 highs, sending a caution message to the broad markets before it turned sharply lower. Are banks doing the same thing again this year?

The right chart looks at the yield on the 5-year note. Yields are currently testing 18-year falling resistance. The 5-year yield made important highs back in 2000 and 2007 along this line.

If banks and yields would happen to break support at each (1), it would send a caution message to the S&P 500.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





S&P Testing Strong Support, With Fear Levels High!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

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This chart looks at the S&P 500 on a weekly basis over the past couple of years. Since the start of 2016, the S&P has spent the majority of the time inside rising channel (1).

In January the S&P hit the top of the rising channel and selling quickly took place, taking it down to test rising support in a matter of a couple of weeks.

The softness of late has the S&P facing rising channel support and its 200-day moving average at (2). 

CNN Fear & Greed Index-

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The S&P’s upward trend remains in play until it breaks below rising channel support and its February lows.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Commodities attempting breakout off 7-year support!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

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Its been a rough 7-years for Agriculture ETF (DBA) as it has created a series of lower highs and lower lows while declining 50% inside of falling channel (1).

The decline this year has it testing channel support of late, where a double bottom might be in play at (2).

The rally of the past couple of weeks has DBA attempting a breakout above falling resistance at (3), while momentum is very low and could be attempting to turn higher.

While DBA is attempting a breakout, yields and Commodities ETF (DBC) are testing multi-decade resistance and Commodities ETF DBC is testing 7-year falling resistance at the same time. 

Important breakout tests are in play for hard-hit Commodities ETF’s DBA and DBC!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Germany breaks 9-year support, impact the states?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

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While so many are wondering if the stock market bounce today will hold, they might want to look to Germany for clues to where stocks in the states could be headed in the near future!

The chart looks at the DAX index from Germany. The DAX has remained inside of rising channel (1) since the 2009 lows. Over the past year, the DAX could be creating a head & shoulders topping pattern, just above 9-year support.

The action of late has the DAX attempting to break 9-year support and the neckline at (2) this week. Keep a close eye on the DAX in the next couple of weeks because it could be sending an important message to stocks in the states!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





You Aboard These Breakouts In Coffee & Sugar?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

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Two weeks ago the Power of the Pattern shared that bullish opportunities were forming in two hard-hit commodity ETF’s. Above is an update of what these patterns look like 10-days after the original posts.

On 10/2 we shared this post; “Are Coffee Prices Primed For A Reversal Highs?” See post HERE

On 10/1 we shared this post; “Sour times about to end for Sugar after 50% decline?” See Post HERE

Below looks at the performance of Sugar, Coffee and the S&P 500 since the Commodity Posts were shared

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Over the past 10-days, Coffee and Sugar have made more than the S&P 500 has made this year.

If you are interested in bullish pattern opportunities in sectors and commodities, our Sectors/Commodities Sentiment Extremes report will be of interest to you!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Leadership Since 2009 Lows Testing Strong Support, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

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Few if any sectors have been stronger than Semiconductors over the past 9-years. The table below highlights that SMH almost doubled the performance of the S&P 500 since the 2009 lows. Softness this year has SMH testing rising support and this year’s lows at (1) above.

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Joe Friday Just The Facts– This leading sector is facing a very important support test at this time!

A bounce is due as momentum is now reaching oversold levels. The long-term bull trend would receive a concerning message from SMH if it breaks support a few weeks from now. Keep your eye on tech leadership at this key price point friends. In time we feel what they do at (1), will send a very an important long-term message to the broad market and the tech sector.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Stocks smell like 2000 & 2007 again?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

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Did the top in the S&P 500 in 2007, have anything in common with the 2000 top? Yes!

In 2000 the S&P made a nominal new high near the first day of fall, as monthly momentum was creating lower highs. Once it broke support selling pressure increased.

In 2007 the S&P made a nominal new high near the first day of fall, as monthly momentum was creating lower highs. Once it broke support selling pressure increased.

Lately, the S&P made a nominal near the first day of fall, as monthly momentum was creating lower highs.

History doesn’t repeat exactly, yet it can rhyme from time to time. One of my favorite quotes comes to mind when looking at the above patterns; “The odds of a repeat are LOW, yet the impact would be big if it does!”

Line (1) represents very strong support off the 2009 lows! Regardless of a repeating pattern potential, one thing is for sure, stock bulls do not want to see support break at (1)!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Commodities & Yields attempting multi-decade breakouts!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

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This chart looks at Commodity ETF (DBC) over the past 12-years as well a 2 & 5-Year yields over the past couple of decades.

DBC peaked in 2007 and has created a series of lower highs ever since. The rally over the past couple of years has DBC testing falling resistance that started 11-years ago.

While commodities are testing long-term resistance, the same can be said about interest rates too!

The yield on the 2 & 5-year notes is testing long-term falling resistance as well at each (1). The last two times that yields touched these long-term falling resistance lines was back in 2000 & 2007.

What commodities and yields do at each (1), will send monster important macro messages to Commodities and Bonds friends. These are price tests seldom seen in the past 10 to 30-years! What bonds and commodities do with these resistance lines, will become very important to stocks!!!

We are keeping Sector members informed on these patterns each week. If you would like to stay on top of these highly important patterns, we would be honored if you were a Sectors/Commodities Member.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Stocks and Bond Yields Testing Multi-Decade Resistance!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

At what point does the rise in treasury yields (and interest rates) matter to the economy and stock market? Today’s chart looks at the past 4 decades of the 2-year treasury note yield versus the stock market (the Dow Jones Industrial Average).

As you can see in the chart below, the 2 year treasury yield has been in a downtrend for quite some time (1). A steep rally in 2-year rates has yields testing this down trend line right now. The past 2 times the downtrend line was tested were in 2000 and 2007 – both resulted in bear markets!

It’s also notable that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing upside resistance within its long-term uptrend channel (2)… it did this in 2000 and 2007 as well. You don’t see stocks and yields testing mult-decade lines at the same time very often!

2 Year Treasury Bond Yield vs Dow Jones Industrials Chart

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This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original post CLICK HERE

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





 
 
 

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Global Stock Market Indexes Flash Bearish "Look Alike" Patterns?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Over the past several weeks, I’ve shared several examples of key stock market indexes and indicators hitting long-term resistance. Today, we’ll do the same… but with a much wider lens. We’ll look at 9 different stock market indexes in the developed markets that look concerning.

When a stock or market index hits resistance, it has three possibilities: 1) to break out above resistance  2) to move sideways / consolidate near resistance  3) to turn lower and pullback or correct.

In the 9-pack of charts below, we are seeing bearish “look-alike” patterns emerging. And in each case, it looks like the given markets are turning lower (point 1).

The markets considered include 6 U.S. indexes and 3 European, including the S&P 500(NYSEARCA: SPY), ...



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10 Stocks To Watch For October 18, 2018

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Weekly Market Recap Oct 14, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

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Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

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Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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Mid-Day Update

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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