Author Archive for kimblechartingsolutions

Bear Market Omen? The ‘Average Stock’ Is Breaking Down

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The stock market has been in a corrective sideways move for the better part of 2018. Is it ready to decline even lower?

Well if the “average stock” is any indication, then investors should be concerned.

The “monthly” chart below is of the Value Line Geometric Index (INDEXNYSEGIS: VALUG), which plots the price of an average stock in today’s market. We can see that a bearish wedge pattern has developed in a similar fashion to 2007 and 1999.

It’s notable that in each of the past two breakdowns (1) and (2), the price broke below wedge support and its 10-month moving average.

It appears to be doing the same thing today. Careful here!

Value Line Geometric Chart – Bearish Wedges

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Crude Oil testing support with fear levels high, after 31% decline

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Crude oil has been hit hard of late. The decline has Crude testing 3-year rising support at (1), as fear levels are high at (2) and weekly momentum is currently nearing oversold levels.

Below looks at Crude Oil and its 10-week performance –

Crude Oil has declined over 30% in the past 10-weeks at (1), as it is testing rising support at (2).

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Crude experience a short-term bounce as fear levels are very high and it is testing 3-year rising support.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





NYSE facing critical 20-year support test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

This chart looks at the NYSE index over the past 20-years. During this time frame, this broad index has spent the majority of the past quarter-century, inside of rising channel (1).

It broke above the top of the channel in 2016 and it experienced a very strong 12-month rally. Since the first of this year, it has created a series of lower highs and lower lows. Weakness this year has it nearing a test of support, which is the top of this 20-year rising channel. While nearing this key support test, it is also nearing another test of a rising support line at (2).

Support is support until broken and this index looks to be near a very important support test at (2).

If support fails to hold at (2), this broad index would be suggesting that the long-term upward trend in stocks is now turning lower. Keep your eye on what this broad index does at (2) friends, as it could send an important message to the bull case.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Small caps could fall 20% from here, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

This chart looks at the Russell 2000 over the past 30-years, where it has spent the majority of that time, inside of rising channel (A).

This chart reflects that the long-term trend in small caps remains higher. Weakness this year has it testing rising support tied to the 2009 lows at (1).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- If the Russell breaks below support at (1), it could work its way over time to channel support at (2), which is currently around 20% below current prices.

Very important support test in play for small caps currently!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Silver At Historic Price Juncture: Which Way Will It Break?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Silver is nearing an important price juncture and is likely to break up or down in the days / weeks ahead.

And, as we discussed earlier, that move should be a big one! Though Silver (NYSEARCA: SLV) has been known to buck the trend before (see prior article link), it is in the throws of a bearish descending triangle.

And the price support line for that triangle resides at the mid-line of the log chart trading range.

Let’s look at the charts and highlight these patterns.

In the first chart, you can see that Silver remains in 44-year trading range between 3.50 & 50. It is currently testing the mid-support of that range at (2). This mid-line has been support and resistance several times over the past 38-years.

Will it hold?

Silver Monthly Chart with Trading Ranges

If silver breaks below its trading range support (first chart) and below support at (3) on the chart below, the measured move suggests it will fall at least 40%.

As we noted above and in our earlier blog, Silver is in a bearish descending triangle. Bulls hope Silver bucks the trend and pattern, while bears are waiting for the bottom to fall out.

In my humble opinion, Silver is facing one of the most important support tests in decades right now.

Silver Chart with Bearish Triangle

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original post CLICK HERE

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Another Dire Warning For Stocks? It was in 2000 & 2007

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are stocks receiving another dire warning, similar to the message received in 2000 & 2007? Very possible!

This chart looks at the yield on the 10-year yield, inverted. This chart now resembles bond prices. The inverted yield has remained above a key support line for the past 25-years.

In 2000 & 2007 the inverted yield created a bullish falling wedge, with the apex of the wedge at 25-year rising support. When a breakout took place in 2000 & 2007, stocks were peaking and they soon tanked.

The inverted yield has been falling hard the past few years, bringing it back to test 25-year rising support. Over the past couple of years, the inverted yield looks to be forming another bullish falling wedge, with the apex of the pattern taking place at support.

This week it is making an attempt to break out from this bullish pattern at (1), similar to the price movement in 2000 & 2007!

In 2000 & 2007 when breakouts took place, stocks peaked and tanked in the months ahead. Will it be different this time???

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Silver about to blast off from bearish pattern?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Silver looks to be creating a bearish pattern over the past few years. Could this bearish pattern end up being bullish for Silver?

This chart takes a look Silver on a monthly since the 1970’s. Numerous times Silver created a bearish ascending triangle at each (1). When this pattern forms, the majority of the time the asset falls in price by a large percent.

Silver bucked the odds at each (1) and broke out to the upside, where very strong rallies soon followed.

Over the past couple of years, Silver looks to be creating another bearish descending triangle pattern, with support coming into play at $14. This pattern suggests the Silver will decline in price following a break of support.

Silver bulls would love to see it buck the odds of this pattern and breakout to the upside as it did at each (1). If it would succeed, Silver could blast off.

The key to this pattern is the support level at $14. If Silver is to blast off, support must hold!!!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Gold Miners Would Receive Strong Bullish Message If…

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

2018 has been rough on Gold Miners, as they’ve declined a large percentage. The decline has this key ratio testing dual support to start off the week.

This chart looks at the GDXJ/GDX ratio (Junior Miners/Senior Miners) over the past 8-years. If you are bullish miners, you prefer to see this ratio moving higher.

The decline this year has the ratio testing the bottom of its 2-year trading range and rising support of the 2015 lows.

A rally off support at (1) would send a positive message to miners. If the ratio breaks above the top of its trading range and falling resistance at (2), it would send a very positive message to the hard-hit mining sector. 

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





The Sky Is Falling Sideways, Where Are The Risks?

Chris Kimble suggests that the S&P could be trading in a sideways pattern. The sideways pattern during 2015-2016 lasted two years. The sideways pattern now has lasted around 10 months. (I don't understand why Chris believes a resolution is nearing; perhaps it persists another year or so?) ~ Ilene

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

While many analysts are talking about the sky falling in stocks, the chart below reflects that the S&P 500 may simply be in a sideways trading range. As well, the S&P 500 remains within the uptrend channel (testing the lower support).

Seen this price action before? Yep, back in 2015-2016. At that point (1), the S&P 500 has just hit its 161.8% Fibonacci extension level at the top of the uptrend channel. That prompted a sideways trading range for 20-months.

This year, the S&P 500 hit its 261% Fibonacci extension level and has proceeded to trade sideways yet again at point (2). This has lasted 10 months thus far, but a resolution is nearing…

If the sky is to fall in stocks, the trading range and channel support need to break lower at point (3). If dual support breaks at (3), selling pressure in the S&P 500 could see itself 10% lower rather quickly.

As long as support holds, this bull is still alive. Stay tuned!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Crude Oil Imploding, Could Hit Texas Hard Again!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Crude Oil created a multi-year narrowing pennant pattern over a 4-year time frame (2010-2011).

Once support of this pattern broke at (1), Crude Oil imploded, falling 70%. This collapse impacted all oil-producing states and especially Texas.

The rally off the 2016 lows, saw Crude Oil rally back to its 38% retracement level of its 2008 highs/2015 lows, where it looks to have created a double top.

Crude Oil is now imploding after creating a double top and breaking rising support at (2). It has declined more than 25% in just a few weeks.

Odds are high that the large decline in Crude, will impact all oil-producing states and especially Texas.  A slowdown in Texas can have ripple effects on the overall economy.

Watch the $47 level, as it becomes an important support test!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Trump Slams "Foolish" Fed, Ready To Intervene In Huawei Case

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Update: President Trump went on tell Reuters that he needs flexibility amid the trade battle with China:

“You have to understand, we’re fighting some trade battles and we’re winning. But I need accommodation too,” he said.

And stated that it would be a mistake if the Fed boosts rates next week: "I think that would be foolish, but what can I say?"...



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Phil's Favorites

Blue Wave with Cheri Jacobus (Q&A II, Updated)

By Ilene at Phil's Stock World

Cheri Jacobus is a widely known political consultant, pundit, writer and outspoken former Republican and frequent guest on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, CBS.com, CNBC and C-Span. Cheri shared her thoughts on the political landscape with us in our August interview, and now, post-2018 election, we’re following up.

Updated 12-10-18

Ilene: What do you think about Michael Cohen's claim that the Trump Organization's discussions with high-level Russian officials about a deal for Trump Tower Moscow ...



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Members' Corner

Blue Wave with Cheri Jacobus (Q&A II, Updated)

By Ilene at Phil's Stock World

Cheri Jacobus is a widely known political consultant, pundit, writer and outspoken former Republican and frequent guest on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, CBS.com, CNBC and C-Span. Cheri shared her thoughts on the political landscape with us in our August interview, and now, post-2018 election, we’re following up.

Updated 12-10-18

Ilene: What do you think about Michael Cohen's claim that the Trump Organization's discussions with high-level Russian officials about a deal for Trump Tower Moscow ...



more from Our Members

Kimble Charting Solutions

Bear Market Omen? The 'Average Stock' Is Breaking Down

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The stock market has been in a corrective sideways move for the better part of 2018. Is it ready to decline even lower?

Well if the “average stock” is any indication, then investors should be concerned.

The “monthly” chart below is of the Value Line Geometric Index (INDEXNYSEGIS: VALUG), which plots the price of an average stock in today’s market. We can see that a bearish wedge pattern has developed in a similar fashion to 2007 and 1999.

It’s notable that in each of the past two breakdowns (1) and (2), the price broke below wedge support and its 10-month moving average.

It appears to be doing the same thing today. Careful here!

Value Line Geometric Chart – Bearish Wedges

...



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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Surge Ahead Of Producer Price Index

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related SPY A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Signal Lower Start On Wall Street Assessing This Week's Technical Damage To...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

How low will Bitcoin now go? The history of price bubbles provides some clues

 

How low will Bitcoin now go? The history of price bubbles provides some clues

The Bitcoin bubble is perhaps the most extreme speculative bubble since the late 19th century. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Lee Smales, University of Western Australia

Nearly 170 years before the invention of Bitcoin, the journalist Charles Mackay noted the way whole communities could “fix their minds upon one object and go mad in its pursuit”. Millions of people, he wrote, “become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first”.

His book ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Dec 09, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Bears are certainly showing the type of strength we haven’t seen in a long time.   A week ago at this time futures were surging on news of a “truce” for 90 days between China and the U.S. in their trade spat.  But the charts were still not saying lovely things despite a major rally the week prior.   And by Tuesday, darkness had descended back on the indexes, with another gut punch Friday.    A lot of emphasis was put on a long term Treasury yield dropping below a shorter term Treasury.

On Monday, the yield on five year government debt slid below the yield on three year debt, a phenomenon which has p...



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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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Biotech

World's first gene-edited babies? Premature, dangerous and irresponsible

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

World's first gene-edited babies? Premature, dangerous and irresponsible

Vchal/Shutterstock

By Joyce Harper, UCL

A scientist in China claims to have produced the world’s first genome-edited babies by altering their DNA to increase their resistance to HIV. Aside from the lack of verifiable evidence for this non peer-revie...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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