Author Archive for kimblechartingsolutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play at each (1).

With each index now below its 50 and 100 day moving averages should these triple support points at each (1) break to the downside, the Power of the Pattern would not be surprised to see selling pressure ramp up.

Below is a 20-year look at the Nasdaq Composite Index:

 

 

Will this March represent another key turning point for this key Tech index?

The Nasdaq Composite has spent the majority of the past 16-years inside of the blue shaded rising channel. The high in 2000 took place on 3/10/2000 as momentum was lofty and turning lower. The low in 2009 took place on 3/6/2009 as momentum was oversold and turning higher. Did a high take place at the top of the 16-year channel on 3/9/2018 as momentum was lofty and turning lower? In my humble opinion, I don’t know at this time.

I am of this opinion, if support would not hold at (1), I wouldn’t be surprised to see selling pressure continue to take place in this index and the FAANG stocks!

Bottom line: Bull trends are still in play and the action of the 6-weeks has not changed them. If each triple support test at (1) in the 4-pack above and the support point at (1) in the Nasdaq would fail to hold, intermediate (2-year) bull trends could be coming to an end.

More from Kimble Solutions here.





King Dollar; Breaking 3-year support, Kiss Good-Bye?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The US Dollar looks to have kissed the underside of key resistance and is starting to fall. Is this a “Kiss Good-Bye” for King Dollar? Below looks at the US Dollar over the past two years.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

King$ remains in a short-term falling channel, shaded in pink. Last week it kissed the underside of potential dual resistance at (2), creating a reversal pattern (bearish wick) at (2). So far this week, US$ remains a little soft and is attempting to break last weeks low at (3). Weakness here could suggest that King$ just kissed the underside of an important resistance level, which could lead to further US$ selling pressure.

Below looks at King$ over the past 25-years-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

King$ hit 20-year resistance 5-months ago at (1) and has been falling in price. King$ looks to have kissed the underside of dual resistance last week and it is attempting to break rising support at (2). A break of support at (2), could cause concerns for those long and selling pressure could come forward and put a big dent in multi-year King$ rally!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Junior Miners ; Big loss presents opporunity, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Junior Miner ETF has had a rough go of it the past 90- days. Could that large decline, present an opportunity? Below looks at the performance of GDXJ over 90-day windows since inception.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

GDXJ has fallen nearly 25% over the past 90-days. When GDXJ has been down this hard in a 90-day window, in during a bear market, it was closer to a short-term low than a high. Below looks at the chart pattern of GDXJ and the GDXJ/GDX ratio.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Joe Friday Just The Facts- The large decline and the two charts directly above reflect that GDXJ was presenting a entry point, where a really should take place.

Both of these charts were shared on Wednesday with Premium and Metals members. We would be honored to have you as a member, if these type of patterns are of interest to you.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Fear Index (VIX); Testing 2007 level support level!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the VIX index over the past decade. Over the past three weeks, the VIX has been falling sharply, over 40%. This decline has our attention from a Power of the Pattern perspective, see why below.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Over the past 7-years, the VIX has remained inside of falling channel (1). Line (2), is a parallel line of falling channel (1). The VIX index is now testing the lows of 2007 and line (2) at (3). When the VIX hit this level in 2007, it skyrocketed.

This price level could become a very important level for the VIX index and potentially could send an important message to the bullish trend in stocks.

The collapse in Fear has been great for ETF XIV, as it has rallied over 25% in the past three weeks. Premium and Sector members have been long the XIV trade and now they are harvesting gains and pulling up stops. See good news of fear collapse post (HERE).

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Collapsing Fear; Great news for anti-fear trade!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Three weeks ago yesterday, the Fear Index (VIX), was pushing sharply higher, on a very small decline in the S&P 500. When this happened, the Power of the Pattern was suggest to go against the crowd. Below looks at the VIX index over the past 10-years.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The rally in the VIX pushed it to the underside of falling resistance at (1) and a key Fibonacci retracement level (not shown). The Power of the Pattern was suggesting three weeks ago to short the VIX at (1), with a tight stop.

Premium and Sector members shorted the VIX by purchase XIV (see chart below)

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Since hitting a cluster of support at (1), XIV has blasted off. In a matter of 3-weeks, XIV which was testing rising channel (A) support, is now nearing the top of rising channel at (2).

XIV has made as much in the past 3-weeks, as the S&P 500 has since January 1 of 2016. Members are now selling into strength and raising stops, at the position is up over 25% in 15 business days.

If you would like to get Power of the Pattern charts and trade ideas on the fear trade, we would be honored if you were a Premium or Sectors member.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Stocks don’t want to see weakness here, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Many seem to be talking about the growth/reflation theme that has taken place post election. Did this theme really start improving post election? The chart below would put a little question into the date. Below looks at the TR Commodity index over the past 40-years. The index hit support at (1) and started to moving higher. When did the index hit a low last year on a monthly closing basis? The monthly low took place at the end of February 2016, 9-months “before” the election.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The index remains in a downtrend since the highs back in 2011, which looks to have formed the head, of a multi-year head & shoulder topping pattern. The swift decline that started in July of 2014, took it down to support at (1). This is where a counter trend rally started, that many call the reflation/growth rally. Regardless of what label one wants to put on the rally, the index did hit triple resistance in a downtrend at (2) and has turned south of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts– The growth/reflation theme would be put into question, if neckline support at (1), would happen to give way! A support break at (1), would suggest that dis-inflation or de-flation is in play.

So far weakness in the index since the highs back in 2011, has not impacted stocks in a negative way at all. Stocks and this index did bottom together at (1) and both have struggled a little, as resistance was hit at (2) in the chart above.

Below looks at Crude Oil over the past decade and what is taking place after it hit an 800-pound resistance line.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Crude Oil and the NYSE index don’t always correlate. They have over the past two years. With Crude kissing the underside of 800 pound resistance at (2) and turning lower, stock bulls hope that either Crude bounces back or correlations between the two end.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Doc Copper; Head & Shoulders top completed?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

A good deal of talk going around the street since the election last year, has revolved around the “reflation theme!” Below looks at a couple of charts that could be suggesting that the reflation theme could be peaking.

First we take a look at the price pattern Ole “Doc Copper” is creating.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Copper so far, continues to make a series of lower highs over the past 6-years. Copper hit three year falling resistance at (1) and has backed off in price. While hitting this resistance, Copper has created three different bearish reversal patterns (bearish wicks) and potentially a head & shoulders topping pattern. This week Doc Copper could be putting the finishing touches on the right shoulder at (2).

The key to this pattern now? Can Doc Copper remain above the neckline, just below (2). IF support does not hold here, selling pressure could increase.

Below looks at the Copper/Gold ratio and the yield on the 10-year note.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

If the reflation/growth theme is to continue (be the real deal), Ole Doc Copper, 10-year yields and the Copper/Gold ratio needs to breakout to the upside, not be putting in lower highs and acting weaker.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





London; Breaking support of bearish rising wedge?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the FTSE 100 index from London, over the past 30-years. The long-term trend in this important index from Europe remains up, as it has created a series of highs lower and higher highs, since the 2009 lows. The FTSE has spent the majority of the past 25-years, inside of rising channel (1).

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Line (2) is a parallel line of (1). This line was placed on the 2008 counter trend highs, creating another lower parallel rising channel. Line (2) was hit as resistance on the first week of spring (3/17/17) at the apex of a bearish rising wedge at (3). Since then, the index has created a series of lower highs over the past 6-weeks and has broke below support of the rising wedge pattern at (4). The index is down around 3% since hitting dual resistance at (3), nothing big at this time.

Bulls in the states want to see this important index from Europe, heading higher, not reflecting weakness. With the trend in the index still being up, bulls should’t be too alarmed at this time.

What level should the bulls be concerned?  If the FTSE would happen to break below 2000 highs at the 6,950 zone, then this index would send a concerning message to the states.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Coffee; Potential reversal wick at triple support

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Coffee has been pretty ice cold since November of 2016, as its lost nearly a third of its value. Could this large 6-month decline turn into an opportunity? Below looks at Coffee ETF (JO) over the past few years.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The decline over the past 6-months in JO, has it testing triple support last week at (1). While at this potential support zone, JO attempted to create a bullish wick (reversal pattern) last week at (1). Bullish sentiment towards coffee has declined along with the price over the past 6-months, to the 29% level.

The trend in Coffee (JO) remains down, as it has created a series of lower highs for years. One weeks reversal action does not prove that a trend reversal is in play. The first step towards proving that a trend reversal could be in play, would be an overhead breakout at (2).

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Gold Miners; Largest outflows in history could be bullish, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Could historical outflows present an opportunity? Yesterday Sentimentrader.com reported that outflows from Gold Miners ETF’s GDX and GDXJ topped $800 million on 4/26, the largest single day outflows in history. 

Below looks at Gold Miners ETF GDX, reflecting where these large outflows took place.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The long-term trend since the highs in 2011 is down (lower highs and lower lows). The 15-month trend appears to be higher, as GDX has created a series of higher lows, since early 2016.

Joe Friday Just The Facts; GDX is testing 1-year rising support at (1), which could be support of a bullish ascending triangle pattern. Two thirds of the time, this pattern suggest higher prices.

It is way too early to tell if investors panicked on Wednesday (huge outflows). From a Power of the Pattern perspective, what takes place at (1), is very important for the miners space, more important than outflows.

If you are a fan of the Gold, Silver and Mining space, we would be honored if you were a Premium or Metals Member.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

These Are the Goods

 

These Are the Goods

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What I thought was a major career failure turned out to be the best thing that ever happened to my career

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Chart School

Bulls Look To Make a Stand

Courtesy of Declan.

It's looking a little early for some of the nascent pullbacks but buyers are stepping in here to support markets. Much of this looks to be driven by the secular bull market leader, Russell 2000. It managed a new closing high as momentum traders continue to benefit from strength in this index.


The index in the best position to offer a trade tomorrow is the Semiconductor Index. Today offered a solid doji just above support. The 'tweezer top' is a concern as this pattern is typically a strong reversal signal so caut...

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Zero Hedge

"Equity Markets Look Like They're In Denial" - Trader Warns 'Summer-Living Ain't Gonna Be Easy'

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

If you watch the mainstream business media frequently enough during the day, you will be reminded, almost incessantly, that 'stocks' are at record highs, Amazon and Apple are fighting it out in the trillion-dollar-market-cap chase, and Netflix calls are safer than Treasuries.

Trade wars are shrugged off, slumping economic data is ignored, and the flaccidity of the broadest stock market measures is brushed off because only 'losers' don't buy the biggest, momo-est, rich-est stocks because they're a no-brainer.

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Digital Currencies

BIS Blasts Cryptos In Special Report: "Beyond The Hype"

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock, MishTalk

The BIS blasts cryptos over scaling issues, energy, and trust. The BIS is correct. Cryptos are fatally flawed as money.

A Bank of International Settlements (BIS) report examines cryptocurrencies in depth. The study, called "Looking Beyond the Hype" investigates whether cryptocurrencies could play any role as money.

Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Bitcoin Exchange guide all have articles on the report but not one of the bothered to link to it.

After a bit of digging, I found the crypto report is part of an upcoming BIS annual report. The BIS pre-released the crypto report today (as chapter 5).

Here's a l...



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Insider Scoop

4 Online Trading Shows You Should Watch To Start Your Day

Courtesy of Benzinga.

For most people, the stock market’s regular session (9:30 a.m. - 4 p.m. ET) is the only time they can trade. But there’s a whole other world of action taking place before and after each weekday session.

The pre-market and after-hours sessions (4-9:30 a.m. and 4-8 p.m. respectively) offer not only a time for some experienced individuals to trade, but also the chance to learn about the vast majority of corporate news the moment it’s released.

Because all that market...



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Biotech

Mind molding psychedelic drugs could treat depression, and other mental illnesses

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Mind molding psychedelic drugs could treat depression, and other mental illnesses

By agsandrew/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of David E. Olson, University of California, Davis

It seems that psychedelics do more than simply alter perception. According to the latest research from my colleagues and me, they change the structures of neurons th...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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The tricks propagandists use to beat science

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How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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