Author Archive for kimblechartingsolutions

Gold Is Knocking On Key Breakout Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

In 2013, Gold broke below its 23 percent Fibonacci retracement level and a bearish trend change took place at (1).

This was the beginning of a bigger decline that saw gold fall another 450 dollars.

Nearly six years later, Gold returns to this “breakdown” level in hopes of making it a new “breakout” level at (2).

If Gold can breakout at (2) it will send a very bullish message to the market.

Stay tuned – gold bulls are knocking on heaven’s door!

If pattern opportunities in Gold, Silver, Copper and Miners is important to you, our weekly Metals Report will help you find those opportunities.

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Steel About To Breakdown And Send Bearish Economic Message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the Steel Industry suggesting that a recession is nearing? In my humble opinion, the jury is still out on this one.

This chart from Marketsmith.com takes a look at the patterns of Steel ETF (SLX).

SLX has spent the majority of the past 3-years inside of trading range (1). The persistent decline over the past year has it testing the bottom of this trading range at (2).

The weakness over the past year has it below long-term moving averages as its relative strength rating continues to decline.

If SLX breaks below trading range support at (2), it could join the ranks of the yield curve inversion, suggesting slower economic times are ahead.

Stock and economic bulls want/need for SLX to rally off support at (2).

#IBDinfluencer #IBDpartner 

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Transports 10-Year Bullish Trend Being Tested! Rally Time or Breakdown?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the DJ Transportation Index presenting a rare buying opportunity? The broad market most likely hopes so!

Transports have spent the majority of the past decade creating a series of higher lows. This pattern has created rising channel (1), which started back in 2009.

Transports have created a bearish divergence to the S&P 500 over the past 20-months, as they have created lower highs, while the S&P has done the exact opposite.

The softness in Transports has the testing its May lows and the 10-year rising channel to start out the week at (2). While testing this support last week the index created a bullish reversal pattern.

An extremely important support test is in play this week at (2). If Transports would happen to rally off support and break above falling resistance at (3), odds increase that the S&P 500 succeeds in breaking out to new all-time highs.

Keep a close eye on Transports the next couple of weeks as they to send the broad market a very important message!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





S&P About To Decline 14%, Catching Up With The Crude Oil Declines?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

This chart looks at the performance of the S&P 500, Crude Oil and the Yield on the 10-Year note over the past 4-months.

Crude Oil has declined around 14% more than the S&P during this time frame. Yields have declined, even more, around 36%. The is a huge spread between these assets over this short of a time period.

A few important questions; Will the S&P 500 fall another 14% to catch up with the Crude Oil decline? Will the S&P fall another 36% to catch up with the decline in yields? Has Crude and Yields dropped too far?

Odds are very high that these “Fish Mouth” spreads will narrow, as spreads of this size historically narrow over time.

Is it possible that the spreads narrow by a decline in stocks and a rally by the other two? Anything is possible these days!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Commodities Breaking Down, Suggesting Deflation More Likely

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The big news of the day seems to be the inversion of the yield curve. An inversion oftentimes suggests that the economy will be slowing in the future and recession odds increase.

Another important economic message looks to be coming from the Thomson Reuter Equal Weighted Commodity Index!

This chart looks at this important Commodities index over the past 20-years. Since the highs in 2011, commodities have remained inside of falling channel (1).

The index has traded mostly sideways over the past 3-years inside of the blue shaded rectangle.

This month, commodities are attempting to break below the 3-year trading range at (2).

A decline in Commodities, TIP/TLT and Copper Gold ratios and the inversion of the yield curve, increase the odds that Dis-inflation/Deflation is about to present challenges in the global market place.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Silver Creating A Huge Bullish Cup & Handle Pattern?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Silver creating a multi-decade bullish Cup & Handle pattern? Possible!

Silver peaked at $50 in the early 1980s and then proceeded to fall for years. It peaked again at $50 in 2011 and it has declined for the past 8-years.

The two peaks at the $50 level could be the top of a bullish cup and handle pattern.

One this is for sure, Silver has been very weak over the past 8-years, as it has declined over 65%! The 8-year decline in Silver has created a uniform falling channel.

The move higher in Silver of late does have it breaking above the falling channel at (1). This breakout sends a bullish message to Silver owners.

The next important resistance test for Silver comes into play at the $17.64 level!

What would it take to determine if Silver has created a multi-decade bullish cup and handle pattern? A clean break above the $50 level, which is still a “long, long” way off!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Silver Breakout “Test” Important For Precious Metals

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Silver has been in rally mode for several weeks now, including a strong burst higher into August.

Precious metals bulls are hoping the rally continues, as it’s an important piece to the Gold/GLD rally puzzle as well.

Today’s chart shows why the Silver rally is nearing a crossroads, though.

Silver futures are facing a triple breakout resistance at (1), with momentum at its highest level in the past 3 years.

Will this slow the rally down… metal heads hope not!

No doubt this is an important test to see if Silver can break its 2.5 year falling channel.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





S&P; 20-Month Bearish Divergence Could Impact Stocks, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Does history ever repeat itself exactly? Not so much. Do stock market patterns sometimes and momentum sometimes look the same? Yes, says Joe Friday.

This chart looks at the S&P 500 over the past 20-years, on a weekly basis, with momentum in the top section.

In 2000 & 2007, weekly momentum started experiencing lower highs, while the market was creating higher highs at each (1). Momentum was experiencing a bearish/negative divergence with the S&P 500 both times. Once support broke 2000 & 2007, selling pressure took over.

Over the past 20-months, momentum has created lower highs at (2), while the S&P has created higher highs.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; The S&P could experience selling pressure if support happens to break at (3).

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Interest Rates Bottoming After 40% Decline? Stock Bulls Hope So!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Interest rates have declined over 40% in the past 9-months. Could they be near a short-term low? Stocks most likely hope so.

This chart looks at the yield on the 10-year note (TNX) over the past 20-years. The majority of the past couple of decades rates have declined inside of falling channel (1). Two years ago yields broke above this rising channel and rallied 40% in less than a year.

The 40% decline in yields since October of last year has yields testing channel (1) as support at (2). While testing support, TNX could be creating a bullish reversal pattern this week at (2).

Over the past 20-years when yields have declined 40% in 9-months, they were closer to lows than highs. Will it be different this time?

According to Sentimentrader.com, bond bulls are easy to find at this time (75% bulls), which is the highest level since 2016.

Stock market bulls might receive good news if yields can find support at (2) and rally.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Stock Market Pullback or Bear Market Beginning? (Moment of Truth Part II)

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Stock Market Indexes Topping?

Well, that was fast. The stock market pullback has been sharp and likely is not over yet.

Last week, I shared the same chart, calling it a moment of truth for the stock market. Would the 3 underperforming stock market indexes (in the lower half of the chart) bring down the outperforming 3 indexes (in the upper half)? Dow JonesS&P 500 IndexNasdaq 100 versus the Russell 2000Dow Transportation Index, and S&P Mid-Cap Index.

So far, the answer is yes. Well, at least the under-performers have helped to bring about a short-term sharp pullback.

BUT the question now is: Will the underperformers drag the broader market into a correction… or perhaps a bear market?

Let’s look closer at the chart above.

As you can see, each of stock market indexes in the upper and lower half is testing critical up-trend support at (3). Bulls need these price areas to hold.

If support at each (3) breaks, bearish messages will be sent after small, mid and transports sent a bearish divergence message of late.

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

South Africa is caught in the global hype of the fourth industrial revolution

 

South Africa is caught in the global hype of the fourth industrial revolution

There’s nothing inherent in Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies that will result in economic growth. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alison Gillwald, University of Cape Town

South Africa is caught up in the global hype of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). This is distracting it from the unfinished business of redressing inequality and creating the preconditions for an inclusive digital economy and society.

Reinvented by Klaus Schwab of the World Econo...



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Zero Hedge

Yield Curve Tumbles Back Into Inversion As Fed Sparks Mid-Cycle Maelstrom

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Today's chaos was brought to you by the the words "mid-cycle" (market threw a tantrum that The Fed Minutes were not more dovish) and "inverted" (the much-watched 2s10s curve tumbled back into inversion)  and the number '16' (line in the sand for VIX and gamma)

Chinese stocks trod water overnight...

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks surged on the day, led by Italy...

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Is Knocking On Key Breakout Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

In 2013, Gold broke below its 23 percent Fibonacci retracement level and a bearish trend change took place at (1).

This was the beginning of a bigger decline that saw gold fall another 450 dollars.

Nearly six years later, Gold returns to this “breakdown” level in hopes of making it a new “breakout” level at (2).

If Gold can breakout at (2) it will send a very bullish message to the market.

Stay tuned – gold bulls are knocking on heaven’s door!

If pattern opportunities in Gold, Silver, Copper and Miners is imp...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For August 21, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $1.22 per share on revenue of $1.45 billion.
  • Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE: LOW) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $2 per share on revenue of $20.94 billion.
  • Target Corporation (NYS...


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Lee's Free Thinking

Watch Out Bears! Fed POMO Is Back!

Courtesy of Lee Adler

That’s right. The Fed is doing POMO again.  POMO means Permanent Open Market Operations. It’s a fancy way of saying that the Fed is buying Treasuries, pumping money into the financial markets.

Over the past 6 days, the Fed has bought $8.6 billion in T-bills and coupons. These are the first regular Fed POMO Treasury operations since the Fed ended outright QE in 2014.

Who is the Fed buying those Treasuries from?

The Primary Dealers. Who are the Primary Dealers?  I’ll let the New York Fed tell you:

Primary dealers are trading counterparties of the New York Fed in its implementation of monetary policy. They are also expected to make markets for the New York Fed on behalf of its official accountholders as needed, and to bid on a ...



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The Technical Traders

Fed Too Late To Prevent A Housing Market Crash?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Real Estate is one of the biggest purchases anyone will make in their lifetime.  It can account for 30x to 300x one’s annual income and take over 30 years to pay off.  After you’re done paying for your property, now you have to keep paying to maintain it and to support the property taxes to keep it.  What has happened to the US Real Estate market since the 2008-09 global credit market collapse and is the US Fed behind the curve?

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

One of the most common indicators used to measure national housing affordability and price trend is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.  In this chart, we are displaying the Case-Shiller National Home ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin 2019 fractal with Gold 2013

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Funny how price action patterns repeat, double tops, head and shoulders. These are simply market fractals of supply and demand.

More from RTT Tv

Ref: US Crypto Holders Only Have a Few Days to Reply to the IRS 6173 Letter

Today's news from the US IRS has been blamed for the recent price slump, yet the bitcoin fractal like the gold fractal suggest the market players have set bitcoin up for a slump to $9000 USD long before the IRS news hit the wire.

Get the impression some market players missed out on the b...

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Digital Currencies

New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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