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Friday, April 19, 2024

Inverted Yield Curve Suggesting Bonds Are Topping?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is Mr.Markets job to fool the majority? If so, some surprises in the bond market could be near!

This table from Google Trends looks at the popularity of articles mentioning the “Yield Curve.” Last week it seemed like everywhere you turned people were discussing the “inverted yield curve and how it was going to be bad for stocks!” Is this theme a little too popular right now/long in the tooth? Time will tell.

The chart below looks at Bond ETF (TLT)-

TLT has rallied off falling channel support over the past few months. The rally has TLT testing the top of this falling channel at (1), where early in the week it could be creating a bearish reversal pattern (Bearish Wick).

If Mr. Market succeeds in fooling the majority, bonds might be closer to a short-term high than a low at this time. 

What TLT does at (1), should send a very important message to the stock market. Keep a close eye on bonds here and now friends!

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