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Faltering Thursday (Again)

The market can't seem to get the hang of Thursdays.  

Fortunately though, at Philstockworld, we had a pretty good handle on things yesterday as I noted my concerns in the Morning Report (and all week) and yesterday morning, in our Live Member Chat Room, I called for shorting the Dow (/YM) Futures at 26,650 as well as the S&P (/ES) Futures at 2,950 and, as you can see, we had a nice gain of $1,500 per contract on the Dow and I even called the perfect exit at 4:35 (Futures trade until 6pm), saying to our Members:

300 points is plenty on /YM – don't be greedy!  

The S&P (/ES) bottomed out at 2,915 but the S&P pays $50 per point so 35 points was good for $1,750 per contract – even beter than the Dow gains.  It's been a while since we've played the Index Futures but this is a nice way to get back into the swing as we get back to the kind of toppy inflection points we like to play.  

Speaking of toppy, my crystal ball was on fire yesterday morning as in the same morning note to our Members where we shorted the Futures, I also said:

API showed a 6Mb build in oil and down 1M in Gasoline and up 2M in Distillates so we'll see what EIA says but a build like that can send us back to $62.50 but now it won't take much to "beat" terrible expectations so I'd have to say it's too tricky to play at the moment.  

How cool is that?  Oil contracts pay $10 per penny so a $1 drop is worth $1,000 per contract – nice work if you can get it!  More importantly, when our crystal ball is working we're able to make MONEY in the Futures and that's always fun so we're going to be looking for more opportunities but probably more next week, though you can play Oil (/CL) to bounce off $62.50 and, since it's down $2 from $64.50 a weak bounce is 0.40 ($62.90) and a strong bounce is 0.80 ($63.30) but it already had a strong bounce that failed so now we'll look for just the 0.40 – but that's still good for $400 per contract – nothing to sneeze at for a day trade

While Futures trading is inherently risky, we teach our Members to mitigate the risk through cash management strategies, the primary one being the selection of good support lines (like $62.50) with tight stops below of, say, 0.05 – which limits the loss to $50 against the expected gain of $400.  Once we hit the weak bounce line at $62.90, that becomes the stop but it's possible we get lucky with a stronger bounce so $400 is not our upside limit but a $50 loss is.  That means we can be wrong about our entry 6 times (-$300) and still make it up by being right once! 

And, by the way, we take our positions when the Futures are breaking through our support lines GOING OUR WAY – not when they are going against us – that would just be silly, right?  So there's a little bit of momementum trading going on in the Futures but mostly we're just playing the 5% Rule™ and using those lines whenever they are in play.  

With Oil (/CL) Futures, our baseline is $60 so we pay careful attention to the +5% Line at $63 and the +10% line at $66 but $64.50 (7.5%) is also a line which we would then expect to be a point of contention between the bulls and the bears – and it is.  The 5% Rule™ doesn't tell us which way things are going – it just tells us the most likely trading range and then it's up to us to analyze the news-flow to figure out whether or not support/resistance lines are likely to hold up.  As I often say to our Members about the 5% Rule™:  "It's not TA – it's just math!

$66 to $63 is $3 so 10% (0.30) or 20% (0.60) overshoots are perfectly normal on either side so we ignore those – other than to confirm our lines.  As you can see, we're getting 0.60s on the upside and 0.30s on the downside so there's a general tendency to go higher and that makes a playing for a bounce off $62.50 a very high-percentage play – so we'll see how it goes.  This morning, we're at $62.55, not $62.50 but that's close enough to add one contract and then I can double down at $62.45 to average $62.50 and a very tight stop below $62.45 for maybe a $60 loss because, looking at the chart, I'm not confident we'll get the the $62.50 lline, especially with the Dollar hitting resistance at 97.50.  

That's right, there's a lot of moving parts to this play and you need to pay attention to all of them if you want to be a successful Futures Trader.  One reason we're favoring the long side on oil (despite shorting it yesterday) is that we're heading into "Summer Driving Season", which officially kicks off on Memorial Day Weekend (May 24th-27th) so that's 3 weeks away and it's very unlikely oil is below $65 into that holiday, so we'd rather be caught long than caught short.  

If $62.50 fails on /CL, we try again at $60, which is the next significant support and, if that happens, Gasoline (/RB) becomes an interesting long around the $2 line as well.  


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  1. TSLA

    Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) files to offer $650M worth of shares and $1.35B worth of convertible senior notes in separate offerings running concurrently.

    CEO Elon Musk is indicating preliminary interest in buying up to 41,896 shares for about $10M at the public offering price, according to Bloomberg.

  2. Index funds don't charge 2/20 to manage your money:

  3. Markets doing great everywhere:

    Surprised by how well REIT are doing but then again, no more talk of rising rates! Oil is having a great year, another tax on the little people.

  4. Good Morning!

  5. /CL – got on the train with you at $61.95. Crossing fingers. 

  6. Good morning!

    Webinar replay is now up!

  7. NLY is cutting dividend.

  8. CMG back to doing what it does best – squeezing shorts. Just retaken the $700 level. Butter/Hot knife.

  9. One of my holding FLR taking a beating today! Can't win them all. Getting cheap looking at the forward P/E and they seem to have added to their backlog.

  10. Good morning! 

    Well, so much for $62.50 holding up on /CL.  Still a play if we cross back over but maybe we get a crack at $60, where I'd play USO into the holiday. 

    Figure $60 is down another 2.5% so $12.50 on USO would be the target entry and we'd look for $14-15 into July.  At the moment, the July $11.50s are $1.63 and the July $13s are 0.63 so $1.50 spread for $1 not that exciting but the $12.50 (0.90)/15 (0.10) spread at net 0.80 is more fun and I'd buy the $12.50s for 0.75 if we dip lower and then wait to hopefully sell the $15s for 0.20+ on a recovery.  Here's the chart on that option:

    So easy enough to get back to 0.20.

    TSLA/Albo – Death throes.  Elon owns 38.6M shares of TSLA so he "announces" he MIGHT buy 41,896 shares (0.1%)?  What a crock of BS that is.  It shouldn't even be legal for him to make an announcement like that as it's clearly intended to fool people who can't do math.  Doesn't seem like people are really falling for it – $250 rejected hard and fast and back to $240 already.

    Of course we knew they'd be desperate to hold $240 (where they start breaking loan covenants) so this is their Hail Mary play trying to hold the line.

    Big Chart – No technical damage so far.  Watch that sneaky 20 dma on /NQ, any loss of momentum there could be a problem.

    Index funds/StJ – This is what I keep telling people, you are better off handling your own investments UNLESS you are able to work and earn more than the 2/20 it costs to have your money managed – then it makes sense to use a fund.  Speaking of which, our MJ fund ONLY charges 2/20 and is looking good for Aug/Sept!  

    REITs/StJ – Crazy money there in the past year.  

    Oil/Dawg – Not looking good at the moment, down to $61.50 and likely on the way to $60 but THEN I'll be excited to buy again.

    /NGV19 also back to $2.65, which was our buy line.    About $2.57 on /NG

    NLY/Pirate – Well they should cut it, they took a loss in Q1 if 0.23 adjusted.  That's a CC I'll be reading over later. 

    CMG/Winston – Back to crazy town on that one.  

  11. CME is launching micro futures contracts on the 4 major indices.  These will be 1/10 the size of the normal contract.  Liquidity will be low early on, but I can see these catching on and letting more people participate in Futures trading.

  12. /CL – been in and out twice with a net win of $350 which considering I’ve been trading against a strong down trend, I couldn’t be happier. 

  13. The Aliens Among Us

  14. Oil/Dawg – Good job squeezing out profits.  Just testing $61 now.

    • Q1 Productivity and Costs+3.6% vs. +1.9% expected, +1.3% prior (revised from +1.9%).
    • Unit labor costs: -0.9% vs. +1.8% expected, +2.0% prior.

    • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.14% in the week ending May 2, 2019, down from 4.20% in the previous week and 4.55% at this time last year, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
    • "These lower rates combined with solid economic growth, low inflation and rebounding consumer confidence should provide a solid foundation for home sales to continue to improve over the next couple of months," said Freddie Chief Economist Sam Khater.
    • iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSE:ITBrises 1.2%.
    • 15-year FRM averaged 3.60% vs. 3.64% in the prior week and 4.03% at this time last year.
    • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 3.68% vs. 3.77% in prior week and 3.69% a year ago.
    • Previously: Mortgage rates continue climbing (April 25)


    • Coeur Mining (CDE -4.2%) reported wider Q1 adjusted net loss of $23M as compared to small earnings of $0.3M last year, as gold and silver output fell, along with prices received for the metals.
    • Silver output fell 22% Y/Y to 2.5M ounces, while gold output slipped 8% to 78,336 ounces; the biggest drop was at the Palmarejo mine in Mexico, where output slid by 735,000 ounces due to lower grades and recoveries due to mine sequencing.
    • Received an average of $1,251/gold ounce, down from $1,268; average silver price fell to $15.22 from $16.70.
    • Reaffirmed FY19 production guidance of 334,000 to 372,000 ounces of gold, 12.2M – 14.7M ounces of silver, 25M -  40M pounds of zinc and 20M – 35M pounds of lead.
    • The company expects stronger financial and operational results in 2H 2019, due to the anticipated impact of high-pressure grinding roll technology at the Rochester mine, higher recovery rates and production levels at Palmarejo, and improved plant performance and higher grades at Silvertip.
    • Previously: Coeur Mining misses by $0.02, misses on revenue (May 1)
    • Harmony Gold Mining (NYSE:HMY) slips 4.1% in pre-market as the company maintains its FY19 production guidance of 1.45M ounces, but warns of an increase in all-in sustaining costs to R540,000/kg compared to prior range of R520,000/kg to R530,000/kg; the increase in costs was because of electricity price increases implemented by Eskom
    • Gold output for 9 months ended March, ballooned by 29% to 1.08M ounces, as the full impact of its new Hidden Valley and Moab Khotsong mines was realized.
    • Moab contributed 6,156kg compared to 764kg last year; Hidden Valley shot up to 4,426kg from 1,519kg.
    • Cash operating unit costs increased by 2% to R438 452/kg and all-in sustaining units cost increased by 5% to R543 432/kg; average received gold price of R579,778/kg is slightly higher than last year.
    • The Hidden Valley mine reported production profit of R1.45B, up from R23M, boosting Harmony' production profit to R4.8B from R3.5B
    • Press Release

    • PG&E (PCG -1.3%) beat analyst estimates for Q1 earnings but plummeted 69% Y/Y to $136M from $442M a year earlier, attributed largely to costs stemming from last year's Camp Fire and its bankruptcy.
    • PG&E says it incurred $192M in costs from the Camp Fire during the quarter, including $179M for clean-up and repair costs and $13M for legal costs and other expenses.
    • The company also reported $127M in bankruptcy-related costs, including $114M related to its debtor-in-possession financing.
    • PG&E says it not providing guidance for 2019 GAAP and non-GAAP earnings from operations due to continuing uncertainty related to wildfire expenses, Chapter 11 proceedings and legislative and regulatory reforms.
    • New President and CEO Bill Johnson, who recently concluded a more than six-year tenure as President/CEO of the Tennessee Valley Authority, began his role at PG&E today.
    • Another quarterly loss at Caesars Entertainment (CZR +3.3%) isn't knocking management off its view that the future is bright for the Las Vegas business.
    • "We believe we are well-positioned to benefit from growth in Las Vegas," noted Joyce Arpin on the company's earnings call.
    • "We continue to be bullish on the city over the long term. In 2020 and beyond, we see several different catalysts for growth, including the opening of Caesars Forum and the arrival of the (Oakland) Raiders," she added.
    • During Q1, revenue from Las Vegas properties was up 6% to $955M and adjusted EBIDTAR was 12% higher at $360M.
    • Previously: Caesars Entertainment Corporation misses by $0.13, beats on revenue (May 1)
    • Comex gold prices tumble to YTD lows-1.1% to $1,269.50/oz., weighed by stability in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields a day after Fed Chairman Powell cast doubt about the prospect for a near-term rate reduction.
    • Gold has dropped 5.7% from a 10-month peak hit in February and are down slightly for the year, hurt by renewed confidence in the U.S. economy.
    • Also, data from the World Gold Council showed global demand for gold climbed 7% Y/Y in Q1, but Commerzbank analysts note demand a year ago was unusually weak.
    • WGC says central banks bought 145.5 tons of gold in the quarter, up 68% Y/Y and the strongest start to a year since 2013.

    • Sotheby's (BID +5.1%) rallies after the company's strong sell-through rate helped it overcome a soft quarter of supply ahead of the busier spring season.
    • Revenue fell 11% Y/Y to $174M.
    • Auction commission margin improved to 17.3% from 18.2% a year ago due to the higher mix of lower price works sold.
    • Previously: Sotheby's beats by $0.03, revenue in-line (May 2)
    • Gillette (NYSE:PG) announces the release of its first-to-market Heated Razor by GilletteLabs.
    • The company says the "high-tech device" delivers a sustained heat sensation via an innovative warming bar and provides the pleasure of a hot towel with every stroke
    • The offering is now available for pre order on Gillette on Demand and at The Art of Shaving stores and website tomorrow.
    • The Heated Razor is the first innovation to come from the new GilletteLabs premium division.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM +8.2%) rallies after the company reports Q1 EPS ahead of even the highest estimate of analysts.
    • Gross margin fell 30 bps to 34.3% of sales due in part to cost inflation that was not fully reflected in retail pricing. Analysts had been modeling in an even bigger impact on the company's bottom line.
    • Looking ahead, Sprouts expects full-year sales growth of 9% to 10.5% and EPS of $1.18 to $1.24 vs. $1.20 consensus.
    • Investors are taking a cautious look at Hanesbrands (HBI -0.4%) after factoring in Q1 results ahead of expectations and some mixed guidance.
    • Hanesbrands expects Q2 sales of $1.74B to $1.77B vs. $1.76B consensus and EPS of $0.43 to $0.45 vs. $0.46 consensus. Full-year sales of $6.89B to $6.99B are anticipated vs. $6.91B consensus.
    • Management says key assumptions in the company's guidance include a cautious outlook for the U.S. brick-and-mortar retail market, continued progress in U.S. Innerwear revitalization initiatives, price increases and a conservative view on elasticity, negative effects of currency exchange rates and increased marketing investment to support brand plans.
    • Previously: Hanesbrands beats by $0.02, beats on revenue (May 2)
    • Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) are up 4.4% in premarket action as they hold on to their gains following news of a $2B capital raise through stock ($650M) and senior notes ($1.35B).
    • The company has also given underwriters a 30-day period to purchase an additional 15% of each offering, which would take the total raise closer to $2.3B.
    • "We view this as a clear net positive for Tesla as the company needed to take its medicine and clear the air of the very real investor worries that the company would not having enough capital to meet its debt obligation this November and future cap ex needs," writes Wedbush's Dan Ives in his first pass at the market implications.
    • "This was a smart move by Musk and Tesla to rip the band-aid off and go to the capital markets as the growing worries around capital was a black cloud over the stock on the heels of the company's troubled March results and the choppy path ahead," he adds.
    • Previously: Tesla +5% after filing to raise $2B (May 2)
    • Under Armour (NYSE:UAAjumps 4.58% after the company edges past Q1 sales estimates with a $1.20B tally (+2% Y/Y, +3% constant currency).
    • Standing out during the quarter is the 25% jump in Asia Pacific revenue and 4.4% gain in revenue from the connected fitness business.
    • Wholesale revenue was up 5% to $818M during the quarter and direct-to-consumer revenue was down 6% to $331M.
    • Gross margin was up 100 bps Y/Y to 45.2% of sales vs. 45.1% consensus, driven higher by product cost improvements, regional product mix and prior period restructuring charges. SG&A expenses fell 1% to $510M to account for 42.3% of revenue.
    • Operating margin was 2.9% of sales vs. 0.6% consensus.
    • Inventory fell 24% Y/Y.
    • Looking ahead, Under Armour anticipates FY19 revenue growth of 3% to 4% and EPS of $0.33 to $0.34 vs. $0.31 to $0.33 prior and $0.34 consensus.
    • Previously: Under Armour beats by $0.05, beats on revenue (May 2)

  15. RIG – Continues weak.  Sold some Aug 7 puts at $.60.

    Atitlan, you were smart to wait.  I was too early.

  16. STJ or others, any idea what happened with VXXB?  It looks halted, and the options are gone.  Did they revert back to VXX or something?  I'm confused.

  17. There's no particular reason for this sell-off – just a change in mood.  

    TSLA is offering 2.7M shares at $237.88, so no reason for stock to be higher than that.  Their float is 127M shares so diluting people by 2% AND borrowing another $1.35Bn due in 5 years means you are paying them $237.88/share to borrow $10/share on your behalf (on top of their already $23.5Bn in liabilities ($10Bn straight debt) is another $181.18 per share of obligations you are buying into).  I was saying to Doug (at the fund) yesterday that no one would be stupid enough to lend TSLA more money but I was talking about institutional investors – the public, on the other hand, still has enough suckers left to fill this idiocy gap.

    TSLA needs $566M just to pay convertible bonds in November and they are running an easy $1Bn loss for the year so this money is only enough to get them through the next 6 months and certainly not enough left to advance any new projects or finish any old ones.  They need to deliver 100,000 cars/qtr just to hit guidance and I bet this quarter is already falling short due to lack of cash (last Q was 90,000).

    RIG/Albo – Such a disappointment.

    House Speaker Pelosi Says Barr Lied to Congress

    Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi on Thursday accused Attorney General William Barr of lying to Congress and said the Trump administration was obstructing justice. 

    Moore Says He Won’t Withdraw From Fed Job Consideration

    Stephen Moore said he wouldn’t withdraw from consideration for a position on the Fed board, despite growing Senate doubts about his confirmation chances. 12 minutes ago

    Worker Productivity Advances at Best Rate Since 2010

    U.S. workers’ efficiency improved during the past year at the best pace in nearly a decade, laying groundwork for stronger wage growth and continued economic expansion.

    Industrial Firms Report Big Swings in Typical Worker’s Pay

    Several S&P 500 companies in the industrials and materials sector posted big swings in what they said their median worker was paid in 2018 compared with 2017, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. 10

    These guys are certainly earning their 2 & 20!  

    A 382% Quarter: Hedge Funds Clean Up In Chinese Rally

    Some nimble money managers in China have enjoyed triple-digit returns in three months, running far ahead of a wider rally as they play hot themes as varied as industrial hemp, pig farming and e-cigarettes.

    Lumber Prices Have Unseasonable Slump

    Lumber prices typically rise in the spring as builders stock up for construction season. But this year, they are being hit hard by bad weather and a decline in home building.

  18. Dollar up half a point is doing most of the damage today:

    $14.60 on /SI is our BUYBUYBUY zone!

    Copper getting tempting on possible China deal but I'd rather get $2.75 with tight stops below. 

    /KC back where we like them.  /KCN20 takes you all the way to next summer (July) at $106 – you're paying a penny a month not to have to roll…

    Bingo on /RB – I have conviction  long at $2 into the holiday weekend! 

  19. Phil, there's this report.


    China's Global Times discusses speculation that trade talks between the U.S. & China may have hit an impasse in the latest round of discussions, which ended Wednesday, as few details of progress were disclosed publicly.

  20. Beyond Meat (BYND) flying – double already.

    China/Albo – I don't see a meeting with Xi scheduled so how can there be a final deal in May or even June at this point?  Those kind of meetings take a lot of advanced planning.  Keep in mind I never thought Trump would do a deal because it would punch another $1Tn hole in his budget without his Tariff Taxes on the idiots who voted for him (and those of us who didn't).  I only keep saying I'm WORRIED that there will be a deal and the markets will pop – that's what's been keeping me from going gung-ho short.  

  21. I agree, although it would seem that a tariff deal should be somewhat discounted by the market at this point.  Still any positive announcement could provide an excellent fading opportunity, IMHO..

  22. Beijing, May 2 The latest round of US-China trade talks may have hit an impasse, raising doubts about the chances of an early trade deal between the world's two leading economies, Chinese official media reported on Thursday.

    Unlike the previous negotiations, the 10th round of high-level economic and trade talks, which concluded here on Wednesday, had fewer details about specific discussions and results, state-run Global Times reported.

    That left many to wonder whether the two economic powers have hit an impasse in the tough talks and whether a trade agreement that would end their year-long trade tussle is still within reach as it had appeared to be, it said.

    Though there remain some sticky points and tougher obstacles as they approach the end of the extensive talks, one thing remains very clear: Both sides voiced commitment to the talks, Chinese analysts said. And some even argued that fewer details mean they are closer to a deal.

    Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, who is Beijing’s chief negotiator led the Chinese delegation during the China-US comprehensive economic dialogue held on Tuesday and Wednesday. He co-hosted the talks with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

    The 11th round of the talks is expected to be held next week in Washington.

    But then this is in Bloomberg:

    White House says it's ready to walk if no China trade deal soon

    A healthy relationship between China and the United States will benefit the consumers and companies from both sides and ensure world economic stability, said experts and business leaders after the 10th round of talks in Beijing.

    Euro collapsing is a big problem at the moment:

    This is why BYND is up 100% today:


  23. Idea dump for possible new trades – TECK, SWKS, LEA

    TECK seems to be trading below book with a 4.3 PE. Share price is down recently, maybe a good deal to be had? Skyworks is a sort of 5G semiconductor play and they're reporting earnings after the close today. Lear makes automotive seating and wiring harnesses and that kind of junk. Not too exciting. Of these looking at SWKS one could get the 80/90 2021 call spread for $4.85 and sell half as many $80 puts for $9.70 and net into the $10 spread for 50 cents or so. Maybe even for a credit if a little lucky.

  24. I went long RIG end of day yesterday, Albo. Only down a little on that, but sold a few X puts too. OOPS.

  25. Anyone have thoughts why KHC is getting hammered today?  Did I miss some news?  Thanks.

  26. TECK/Dawg – I think they have environmental issues that have them guiding earnings back down to $2Bn(ish) for the next couple of years from $3Bn last year so not quite as great as they seem but still nice at $12.5Bn ($22), trading at 1x sales (but no growth there either).  They do have long options so I'd just play them conservatively by selling 5 2021 $20 puts for $2.80 ($1,400) and buying 10 of the 2021 $15 ($8.50)/$22 ($4.40) bull call spreads for $4.10 ($4,100) so net $2,700 on the $7,000 spread and all they have to do is not go down and you make $4,300 (159%).

    SWKS/Dawg – They pretty much stopped growing a couple of years ago so $15.5Bn at $90 for $1.2Bn in profits isn't bad but not hugely exciting.  The problem with Semis is you never know if they are going to win or not in the next cycle so, for me, I'd hope they miss and get cheaper and then maybe make a play rather than risk earnings but, if you want an earnings play, you could sell 7 June $90 calls for $4.30 ($3,010) against 5 2021 $105 calls at $9.50 ($9,500) and if they do well, you roll the short calls to a higher strike in 2021 (the $125s are $5) but if they miss, you are in the 2021 $105s for net $6,500(ish) and then you can sell 5 2021 $110s, which are now $8.40 for say $6 and use that $3,000 to drop your longs to the $90s (now $15.50) and sell 5 $70 puts, now $6.50 for maybe $8+ which would make the spread essentially free with the worst case owning them at $70.  

    LEA/Dawg – These guys are growing top line about 5% a year but nothing on the bottom.  Still, $1.1Bn in earnings and you can buy the whole company for $9Bn at $145 so I like this one the best.  You can sell 5 2021 $100 puts for $5 ($2,500) and buy 10 of the 2021 $140 ($23)/$160 ($14) bull call spreads for $9 ($9,000) and that nets you into the $20,000 spread for $6,500 with $13,500 (207% upside potential over $160.  

    KHC/Robert – I see nothing. They cut dividends so people are probably still bailing.  

    Makets making a small recovery in the afternoon.  

  27. KHC missed regulatory filings. Nasdaq FSI Delinguent. This has been on their site for awhile so I don't know why it hasn't been remedied.

  28. BYND meat is very hard to find. When I do find some I buy it all since the stores are constantly running out. Tried to get in to the buying the stock but it has been shut down more than up so impossible. All millions of shares and the buyers have already made millions!

  29. 100 million people in path of India’s worst cyclone in 20 years

  30. Tesla’s $2 bln capital raise repeats sins of past

  31. KHC/Pirate – Probably doing some kind of internal audit after massive goodwill write-downs.

    BYND/Pirate – Seemed tempting at $25 but now $68 so bye bye and good luck to them.  Now they have $240M and I hope they can develop better and better-tasting veggie-meat.  It's something the World could really use.  There were aiming for $19-21 and only just raised it to $25 but the first trade went off at $46 so huge demand for this stuff.  Here's the prospectus.  They did actually have $38M in sales in Q1 and a $9.5M gross profit so $1Bn didn't seem totally crazy on $40M in earnings (25x) but now we're closing in on $3Bn and, even if they can net 20%, they'd have to get to $500M in sales just to get down to 30x earnings so almost 20x growth from here to justify the current trading price.  

    Still, not outside the realm of possibility if it catches on at MCD, Burger King and Wen, right?  They do chicken too so KFC/YUM and, of course, Taco Bell (who would know the difference?).  It's good for the environment and has less chance of contamination than beef and fast food beef isn't good anyway so it's very possible these guys can make a nice dent in that sector and MCD alone consumes 70M pounds of beef a year and BYND's current sales are 9M pounds last year.  So this thing could actually become huge.

  32. pstas-Umm you don't eat them raw! You made me laugh as all my office mates would bring in fast food burgers, Wen, MCD etc buy one, get one free and offer me one, being kind. They smelled so bad, cooked, I said thanks for the thought but NO! They smell really bad. I told them I probably wouldn't feed it to my dog!! Honestly, I got sooo sick on that stuff that I haven't touched it for over 25 years> My  other half said "it was all in my head.!" I said no, it was in my smell too and literally made me ill. After lunch @ MCD the smart one got deathly ill for days soooo that was the end of fast food for both of us. MCD used to have decent coffee when traveling-then some lady spilled it on her lap and that ended!

  33. For what its worth dept- I have had several beyond burgers at three different places. If properly prepared, not overcooking the patty, developing a sort of crispy crust and combining it with a fresh toasted buttered bun and the appropriate toppings, you will not know your not eating meat. It doesn't smell funny or even taste like a typical veggie burger which are usually mostly beans or grains. If the beyond patty is not prepared moist or without the crust, then it indeed is just another veggie burger.

    Disclosure I'm From Texas and know meat!

  34. Not the best recovery but we're still holding the 20 dma on /NQ as well as the others so no technical damage.  It's just been so long since we had selling that it seems like a big deal.

     BYND/Pstas, Pirate – I'm a full-out carnivore but those burgers are not terrible and that's saying a lot from me.  I imagine that, given time, they can make them as good as MCD meat and then I'd say we can substitute probably 50% of all our cow meat and that would be great for the environment so why not?  

    MS/Pstas – I feel the same way.  As I said yesterday, I'm very close to pulling the plug and cashing out. 

    BYND/Stock – I feel like I can tell but I'm used to gourmet burgers (I don't really do fast food ones) but the fast food burgers are no better in my opinion and that's the low-hanging fruit (or vegetables) for them to go after and, apparently, it's already being widely tested.  

    AAPL still $209 – that's a good sign.  Volume still very low on SPY (62M) so no panic selling – just a down day for a change. 

  35. Where the Good Jobs Are

  36. Trump’s 0-for-4 Streak on Fed Choices Raises Concern on Vetting

  37. Top Executives of Opioid Company Found Guilty of Racketeering

  38. Good morning!

    Futures up a bit ahead of NFP (8:30), not much exciting going on otherwise.  

    Oil back testing $62 and /RB already $2.025 so nice gains there and hopefully $2.05 into the weekend but don't be silly and lock in the $1,000 gain with stops! 

    /NG perking up too and /SI up 0.06 so our weekend activities are paid for…

  39. Commodities (and indexes) up against Dollar strength – so there still may be room to run but big NFP means strong Dollar so we may test 98 again. 

    See how easy it is just to play a channel?  You play the channel with a tight stop and just get out if it breaks but, if you stay in the channel – you make nice money.  Since things tend to stay in the channel more often than not – you can make nice money often and, if you simply keep tight stops on your losses, the gains should far outweigh them.  Not only that but this isn't random stuff – we try to pick our spots when other fundamental factors are in play – that's what gives us a nice winning percentage and cash management takes care of the rest!  

    As I've said, you can take the temperature of the China Trade talks with copper.

  40. Bitcoin up 6% today. 

    GBTC at new recovery high.