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What Now Wednesday? Trump Talks Tough on Trade – Tanks Markets

Oops I Did It Again Snl GIF by Saturday Night LiveOops, he did it again

For some reason, last night, Trump decided to place more tariffs on China – again – and said he was "personally holding up a trade deal with China and that he won’t complete the agreement unless Beijing returns to terms negotiated earlier in the year."

“It’s me right now that’s holding up the deal,” Trump said at the White House before he left on a trip to Iowa. “And we’re going to either do a great deal with China or we’re not going to do a deal at all.”

I keep saying that Trump doesn't actually want a trade deal and simply wants an excuse to tax the American People (who pay for the tariffs – not China) to offset the taxes he and his rich friends are no longer paying as well as to give him Billions of Dollars to hand out to voters in the form of "tariff relief" – which is simply a way to alleviate the damage HE is causing.

Related imageTrump has already threatened to raise tariffs on China if President Xi doesn't meet with him at the G20 at the end of the month and even Trump's most loyal supporters must understand that this is not the way World leaders usually schedule appointments but the good news is Xi will be at the G20 and Trump will be at the G20, so Trump will be able to claim he "met" with Xi – regardless of what actually happens – an easy win for Trump to claim.

Meanwhile, Xi allowing Trump to be an ass and make ridiculous demands and accusations is hurting him at home and emboldening opponents, many of which would take a much harsher stance on the US than Xi, as well as protesters like in Hong Kong, where over 1M people (15% of the entire population) hit the streets.  This morning the protesters managed to delay the voting on the extradition bill, which would allow Hong Kong residents to be transported to mainland China for trials, which is like Trump passing a bill that forces you to appear before his court in Washington if he doesn't like something you wrote or said about him or even the way you behaved.  They got tear-gassed for their troubles.  

Despite all this, not too much damage has been done to the Futures and Dow (/YM) 26,000 is likely to be bouncy so that's a good long bet this morning, with tight stops below the line and it's lined up with S&P (/ES) 2,880, Nasdaq (/NQ) 7,990 and Russell (/RTY) 1,515, which is also a good long line to play off of. 

Oil has collapsed again to $51.50 as the API report showed yet another huge build in inventories and that does not bode well for the July contracts as Memorial Day Weekend was a complete bust from a demand perspective and, if these numbers are confirmed by the EIA at 10:30, we can expect the Dow and S&P to turn lower as the oil companies begin to react to the idea that we may not even see $60 again this summer.  All hope lies with OPEC for the oil bulls and that cartel meets EITHER June 25th of July 4th, as Russia has now proposed moving the date as they flex their muscles as the new Member of OPEC+, with the "+" being Russia. 

Isn't is funny how everything Trump does ends up working out well for Russia?

As you can see from this chart for Brent Crude, 2019 is not going very well as oil has fallen from $75 to $60, which is a nice 20% so of course we expect $3 bounces to $63 (weak) or $66 (strong) but that's not enough to reverse the downtrend (and US $WTIC Oil is about $9 less than Brent, currently just under $52). 

If OPEC does not manage to come to an agreement to cut MORE oil production (maintaining current cuts won't be enough), we could see another leg of this drop and 20% below $60 would take us into the $40s for the first time since early 2016, when US oil touched $30 in the first Quarter.  

Dow component Exxon (XOM) is down to $75 and that's $316Bn and they did make $20.8Bn last year, so it seems cheap but last Q they only made $2.4Bn and this Q won't be too much better and if next Q they are making $2.4Bn again that's looking like HALF of last year, when XOM topped out around $85 – so it's got a long way to fall if oil heads lower, as does Dow component Chevron (CVX) so we're just playing for the quick bounce off 26,000 on /YM and then we may flip short if it fails to move up much (with tight stops OVER the line).

In fact Chevron (CVX) makes a nice short at $121 as that's $230Bn in market cap and, while they earned $14.8Bn last year, they only made $2.6Bn in Q1, so running towards $12.5Bn at the moment – a huge miss and it should be noted that, in 2016, CVX LOST $497M for the year – this is not a company that weathers lower oil prices well.  CVX was at $80 in 2016 and they will report earnings in late July and the August $110 puts are only $1.20 so those make a nice single purchase but the Aug $120 ($3.85)/$115 ($2.20) bear put spread is just net $1.65 and pays $5 on anything below $115 for a $3.35 (203%) profit – which isn't bad for two month's "work".  

We'll look for other trade ideas this afternoon during our Live Trading Webinar at 1pm, EST.

 


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  1. Morning All!

    It's webinar day! Join Phil at 1pm, here:

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8636610359558623245



  2. Trump/Phil – What is fascinating to me about Trump is the self-destruction path that he is taking. He inherited a decent economy, low unemployment, low inflation, low rates, good markets, no major war, better relations with allies – all the opposite of Obama. If the GOP had been less greedy and passed a more balanced tax cut and if he had behaved in a more normal presidential manner, he would be at 60% today and the country (and the world) would be better off as a whole! But instead, they only felt the need to reinforce the 40% base (and appease their corporate overlord) rather than trying to expand it. It's really puzzling. Of course, in his case, he can't help himself, the guy is truly mentally sick.


  3. Internet trend report from Mary Meeker:

    https://techcrunch.com/2019/06/11/internet-trends-report-2019/

    333 (1/2 of 666 by coincidence?) slides! Some interesting numbers but long…


  4. Donating and fixing schools is not enough:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/07/education-isnt-enough/590611/

    Today, after wealthy elites gobble up our outsize share of national income, the median American family is left with $76,000 a year. Had hourly compensation grown with productivity since 1973—as it did over the preceding quarter century, according to the Economic Policy Institute—that family would now be earning more than $105,000 a year. Just imagine, education reforms aside, how much larger and stronger and better educated our middle class would be if the median American family enjoyed a $29,000-a-year raise.

    In fact, the most direct way to address rising economic inequality is to simply pay ordinary workers more, by increasing the minimum wage and the salary threshold for overtime exemption; by restoring bargaining power for labor; and by instating higher taxes—much higher taxes—on rich people like me and on our estates.


  5. Hi STJ I knew someone else "who was mentally sick" very sick resulting to a very sad history.

    Will history repeat itself?


  6. Hopefully not Yodi!


  7. MVEN buying TST


  8. Good Morning!


  9. stjeanluc     re trump     BINGO BUTTONS TO THE BACK 


  10. trump – We all knew what we would get if he became president, so for me, I stay positive that the human race will weather the orange storm, but life will never be the same…. 

    We CAN all make life better, simply with a smile and a hello…. :)


  11. I hope that someday we will be able to put away our fears and prejudices and just laugh at people. 
    Jack Handey

    1020


  12. stockbern – Something else that goes well with laughing, shaking ones head… my neck has never been stronger… ;)


  13. Good morning! 

    Once again the Russell is lagging on the way up and the NYSE is hovering around the Must Hold line so we'll see how this all resolves but the other indexes are more than 10% above and still looking strong at the moment.

    Image result for trump putin puppetTrump/StJ – Well the simplest explanation is the one no one wants to confront as everything Donald Trump does ends up helping Vladimir Putin.  America's reputation is trashed, we have broken trade relations with our allies, weakened NATO and the UN, given up on Syria, abandoned the climate treaty, rolled back alternative energy plans, abandoned infrastructure projects, defunded AND regulated away scientific research, lost our status as World Leaders as well as any semblance of moral authority and we've created the worst inequality in this country since the Great Depression.  Putin wins!  

    Wages/StJ – Unfortunately, automation and efficiency these days is all used to pay workers less and less.  If anything, that gap will grow over time unless it's legislated away.

    That report on the internet is very cool – so many slides!  

    Internet Trends 2019 by on Scribd

    GDP/Mike – NY Fed predicting a very steep drop this Q, down half a point on the last week's data alone.  

    MVEN/Mike – That is wild.  We work with those guys and my kids have stock in them and I think PSWI has some too – we didn't buy it, it was given to us for participating.  Barely a premium for TST.  I guess I should call those guys and see what's up now that it's announced.  


  14. from HRB earnings:

    H&R Block (HRB) CEO Jeffrey Jones on potential legislative headwinds… Just take one step backwards as we evaluate the tax reform going back over a year ago, we have done our own historical look at each time there had been a major change to tax law over history and obviously with our history, we're able to look back a long time and what we saw was never in history has there been a change to the tax law that created a significant shift in method type. So as we prepared for tax legislation changes, we had that as a backdrop. And I think when we look at this season there were a lot of interesting dynamics starting with tax reform, then the government shutdown. We saw a shift from assisted to DIY as you said consistent with what we've seen in the last four or five, six years. We didn't see it accelerate at all. And we saw consumers looking for help in lots of different ways as evidenced by our trajectory in assisted, as evidenced by our growth in things like Tax Pro Review where consumers were looking for advice and making sure that they were making the right choice whether it was choosing us to do their taxes or validating the work they had done themselves. And we think that that ecosystem that we're building to serve consumers in so many different ways is a great way to make sure we're listening to the consumer and being able to respond to them again whether they have a simple question or want someone to do all the work for them.


  15. CNX – A couple of years ago I had a good trade following the lead of Southeastern Asset Mgt. and David Einhorn.  Both have recently added shares, with Southeastern purchasing an additional 10 million shares this week and now own 57 million shares or 29% of outstanding.  Also there have been insider buys this week with one director buying 1.5 million dollars worth of stock.

    Bought stock today at $7.08.

    FWIW – The Jan $6 puts can be sold for .55.


  16. SO NET 9.3 MILLION BARREL BUILD OF WHICH 4.SOMETHING THREE I THINK IS OTHER OILS

     

    IS THAT BEARISH PHIL


  17. HRB/Stock – We got frustrated and gave up on them. 

    CNX/Albo – Well they certainly have gone on sale:

    $7 is just $1.4Bn and they made $800M last year so it seems ridiculously cheap but it was a one-time thing and last Q they lost $87M and are projected to be more like $130M this year and next, which is still reasonable but not "sell the farm and buy the stock" kind of reasonable.  

    Year End 31st Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 TTM 2019E 2020E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 3,121 2,930 2,082 836.5 1,179 1,734 1,754 1,534 1,581 -11.1%
    Operating Profit $m 103.2 174.7 -849.9 -276.4 -115 1,118 524.5     +61.0%
    Net Profit $m 660.4 163.1 -374.9 -848.1 380.7 796.5 181.6 132.1 117.7 +3.8%
    EPS Reported $ 0.35 0.71 -1.57 -2.40 0.78 3.71 0.84     +60.3%
    EPS Normalised $ 0.16 0.92 0.76 -2.44 0.64 3.40 0.56 0.72 0.73 +84.3%
    EPS Growth % -62.6 +474.2 -17.3     +428.1 -82.7 -78.8 +0.83  
    PE Ratio x           2.14 13.0 10.1 9.99  
    PEG x           n/a n/a 12.1 n/a
    Profitability

    It's a cyclical back down in the cycle so good if you are long-term and patient but be very careful as they seem to have a massive loss on futures contracts that were unrealized as of 4/15 and oil/NG is much worse now:

    This is probably why they sold off so sharply.

    EIA is much better than API:

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude +2.2M barrels vs. -0.5M consensus, +6.8M last week.
    • Gasoline +0.8M barrels vs. +0.7M consensus, +3.2M last week.
    • Distillates -1.0M barrels vs. +1.1M consensus, +4.6M last week.
    • Futures -2.18% to $52.11.

      Oil just $52, I'd go long here with tight stops below, this is huge relief.  /RB $1.72 also with tight stops below.


  18. TALKING HEAD ON BNN JUST SAID EIA REPORT IS BULLISH JUST LIKE PHIL THEN CHANGED TO MILDLY BEARISH BECAUSE ANDREW BELL TOLD HIM TO .


  19. GUY S NAME IS LEBOW FROM NEW JERSEY


  20. Glad we stayed out of TEVA:

    • Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA -4.2%) slumps on modestly higher volume. Shares are now exchanging hands at the lowest prices in 19 years. The stock continues to fight pricing headwinds, the continued erosion of Copaxone sales (down 56% in Q1) and its potential exposure from opioid litigation.
    • Other generic players are also in the red.
    • Alphabet (GOOG -0.6%)(GOOGL -0.5%) cuts about a half-dozen of its largest firms while restructuring its global government affairs and policy operations, according to the WSJ.
    • The firms represented about half of Alphabet's $20M annual lobbying budget.
    • The changes come as the Justice Department prepares an antitrust investigation into Google
    • In the aftermath of its presentation at an industry conference on Tuesday, State Street (NYSE:STTfalls 1.1% as analysts digest its dimmer outlook.
    • Credit Suisse trims its price target for STT to $63 from $75 to reflect its softer near-term forecast and outlook for slower growth longer term, writes analyst Susan Roth Katzke, who has a neutral rating on the stock.
    • Notes "set of macro and micro challenges working against the achievability prior guidance," such as deposit mix shift, low forex volatility/light volumes, and lower interest rates.
    • Note that all earnings revisions for STT in the past 90 days have been downward.
    • Quant Rating Bearish; Sell-side average rating Outperform (7 Buy, 4 Outperform, 10 Hold, 1 Underperform)
    • Boeing's (NYSE:BA) 737 MAX aircraft will be back in the air by December, says a top Federal Aviation Administration safety official.
    • It is not possible to provide an exact date as work progresses on safety fixes, Ali Bahrami, the FAA's associate administrator for aviation safety, said today at an aviation safety conference in Cologne, Germany.
    • While the FAA is "under a lot of pressure," the MAX will be returned to service "when we believe it will be safe," Bahrami said.
    • Dave & Buster's Entertainment (NASDAQ:PLAY) reports comparable sales fell 0.3% in Q1 to fall short of the consensus expectation for a 1.6% gain. The shift of the Easter holiday was blamed in part for the shortfall.
    • Adjusted EBITDA was up 2.4% to $98M during the quarter.
    • Looking ahead, D&B sees full-year revenue of $1.365B to $1.390B vs. $1.37B to $1.40B prior and $1.40B consensus. Full-year net income of $103M to $113M is anticipated vs. $105M to $117M prior. 15 to 16 new D&B store openings are expected for the full year.
    • Shares of Dave & Buster's are down 15.95% in AH trading.
    • Previously: Dave & Buster's EPS misses by $0.01, misses on revenue (June 11)

    • A wave of analyst downgrades are arriving in on Dave & Buster's Entertainment (NASDAQ:PLAY) following a weak guidance update from the entertainment chain.
    • Wells Fargo points to lowered confidence in D&B's ability to sustainably drive SSS growth without additional margin erosion as it downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform.
    • WF: "While we believe the company’s strategy to drive new store growth (a long-term value creator) vs. focusing the majority of its energy on SSS growth (a near-term barometer of long-term value creation) is ultimately the proper business decision (given the 50%+ year-1 cash-on-cash returns for new stores over the past 6+ years), we believe that public equity investors will continue to not recognize this value driver without the two engines firing simultaneously."
    • SunTrust and Gordon Haskett both dropped their ratings on PLAY to Hold, with price targets of $47 and $48 respectively. The sell-side community went into the D&B earnings report with a consensus Outperform rating on the stock and Seeking Alpha's Quant rating is still flashing Bullish even after the report dropped.
    • Shares of Dave & Buster's are down 16.97% premarket to $42.80. The 52-week low is $42.78.
    • The buyer is TheMaven, and the sale price is $16.5M in cash (plus CVRs). That works out to a price of $6.19-$6.47 per TST share vs. yesterday's close of $5.68.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Air fares rose 2.0% on a month-to-month comparison, according to data compiled by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. The increase during the month broke a two-month streak of falling fares following the Boeing 737 Max issue.
    • Fares were up 0.9% in May compared to a year ago on an unadjusted basis.
    • Several airlines followed the lead of American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) and Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) in firing off $5 one-way domestic increases.
    • BTS data
    • Norway's $1T sovereign wealth fund may have to sell its $1B stake in Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNF) and its $620M holding in Anglo American (OTCQX:AAUKF) under a government plan expected to be adopted by the country's parliament today.
    • The plan would mandate that the fund no longer invest in companies that derive more than 30% of their revenues from coal, mine more than 20M metric tons/year of coal, or generate more than 10 GW of power with coal.
    • Other divestments could include stakes in Germany's RWE (OTCPK:RWEOY), Australia's South32 (OTCPK:SOUHY) and Germany's Uniper (OTC:UNPPY).
    • The world's largest fund previously has sold stakes in 83 mostly coal-producing companies including Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) and power producers ranging from Portland General Electric (NYSE:POR) to Korea Electric Power (NYSE:KEP).
    • May Consumer Price Index+0.1% vs. in-line with consensus, +0.3% prior.
    • Core CPI +0.1% vs. +0.2% consensus, +0.1% prior.
    • Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND) gains after Tim Hortons announces that Beyond Meat Breakfast Sandwiches are now available at almost 4K Tim Hortons restaurants in Canada after a strong consumer response to testing.
    • Shares of Beyond Meat are up 4.73% premarket to $132.00.

    Here's Why Oil Stocks Are Priced For Armageddon 

     

    • Six Flags Entertainment (NYSE:SIX) announces that its Six Flags Great Adventure park in New Jersey is now almost fully powered by solar energy through a 23.5-megawatt solar project built and operated by KDC Solar.
    • The company says the project is New Jersey's largest net metered solar project and distinguishes Six Flags Great Adventure as one of the world's first solar-powered theme parks.
    • Source: Press Release

     

    • MBA Mortgage Applications
    • Composite Index: +26.8% vs. +1.5% (W/W).
    • Purchase Index: +10.0% vs. -2.0%.
    • Refinance Index: +47.0% vs. +6.0%.
    • 30 year mortgage rate at 4.12% vs. 4.23%.
    • "It won't be long before we have a 400-mile range car," Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk said at the company's annual shareholder meeting, outlining plans to unveil a pickup truck this summer and get into semi production toward the end of 2020.
    • He also said that sometime next year, drivers will be able to use self-driving features in their vehicles without intervention.
    • Tesla is on target to grow its entire "fleet" by 60% to 80% in 2019, Musk added, saying "it's hard to be profitable with that level of growth," but the company would still be cash-flow positive while growing at that rate.
    • By the end of this year, Tesla intends to determine and announce the location for another battery-and-car plant in Europe, with plans of establishing a car factory on each continent.
    • A proposal to narrow board members’ tenure to two years from three failed to get enough votes, as did the bid to change the supermajority voting requirement to a simple majority.
    • Auto insurance? Tesla will be able to offer policies after completion of an unspecified acquisition, as well as development of additional software.
    • The benchmark Hang Seng Index gave up 2.1% overnight as protests against the territory’s controversial extradition law shut down key parts of the city.
    • Financial institutions also scrambled for liquid assets, triggering interbank interest rates in the city to shoot up across the curve, with the one-month and two-month HIBOR reaching their highest level since late 2008.
    • Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam argues the legislation is necessary to close a legal loophole that makes the city a refuge to criminals, but opponents say its approval would tear down the legal wall intended to keep Hong Kong's justice system separate from China's.
    • Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT+10.9% after-hours following a Los Angeles Times report that the toymaker again rejected an unsolicited merger offer from rival MGA Entertainment.
    • MGA founder and CEO Isaac Larian says last month he renewed his offer to merge the companies, contending MAT's problems have worsened in the year since he made his initial overture.
    • Larian has not proposed a specific offer price for MAT but says it "absolutely" would be at a premium to the stock's current price.


  21. Lebow/Tommy – Is that Phil Lebow?  He used to be CNBC's oil analyst. 

    Speaking of BNN, let's take a look at the Money Talk Portfolio as I need to get my reviews done early this month as I'll be in NYC next week:

    There's nothing to change here but this is a good lesson on hedging, balance and not panicking as we rode out that little dip without going below 115% (125.8% on May 16th) and now we're up 132% on COMPLETELY UNTOUCHED positions.  That's because, by default, our system makes money from premium decay on the options we sell every single month and, as long as the market is flat, up or even not down too much – we generally make a nice profit.

    Notice SQQQ is now a $6,600 loss and TZA is net flat and that's because we have TZA with a cover while SQQQ was more aggressive – as we thought the drop might be bigger.  Still, it's just insurance and we didn't expect to make money and, in fact, if you follow back to the link of the last review, you'll see that we had a plan for each position – so none of this is a surprise. 

    You shouldn't be surprised by the market, you are here to make money and, if the last month's up and down action have had you tossing and turning – consider trying our more slow and steady approach in one of these low-touch balanced portfolios.


  22. sorry phil didnt write down first name


  23. Teva Pharmaceuticals has recalled an additional six lots of bulk losartan potassium tablets, expanding a nationwide recall originally initiated in April, the FDA announced June 11. … The recall is a result of the detection of N-Nitroso-N-methyl-4-aminobutyric acid, a potentially carcinogenic impurity.18 hours ago


  24. Seems like a decent time to sell the 2021 $35 puts on PLAY for $4.8.  


  25. Short-Term Portfolio Review (STP):  Our last review was May 17th at $719,355 and now, despite the market comeback, we're at $774,355 – up $55,000 for the month.  That's because, on 5/29, when the Nasdaq dove, we were not greedy and cashed out our 2021 $32 calls for a nice profit and traded them in for a more sensible $35/50 bull call spread (3/4 covered).  Not only is our new $100,000 (cost) hedge essentially net free and offering us $300,000 worth of protection (and it's in the money by $3!), but the 3/4 cover will allow us to sell short-term calls for income while we wait. 

    That's why the STP is up so much – we are smart enough to cash in the winning legs of our hedges when we feel it's been a good correction and then we work our new spreads more aggressive as the market heads back up and then we cash in the aggressive longs again on the way down – over and over again.

    Short puts – All doing their job.  We sell these to offset the cost of our hedges and here we've sold $48,650 worth of puts and we've gained $17,826 so far.  If this were all we did in a portfolio we'd be looking very solid for the year, right?  As long as we REALLY would like to own 1,000 shares of AAPL (for example) at $170 – then what's the risk? 

    You can't go too crazy and you have to be able to AFFORD to own those stocks (or at least ride out the loss while you wait for it to correct) or you may be forced to take a loss on the very dip this portfolio is supposed to be protecting you against.  The ordinary margin on the AAPL 2021 $170 puts is $17,000 – that we can easily afford and we don't in any way believe AAPL is going BK – or even to $100 so we don't consider it more than MAYBE a $50,000 risk if AAPL went to $120 (and we decided to sell) but we collected $22,000 so net $38,000 at risk in a realistic assessment, not $170,000! 

    • TLT – Well the Fed screwed that up for the moment but we'll see how next week's meeting goes before giving up on this one.  
    • TNA – Went all the way down to $50 for a bit but nothing t o complain about as we've made good money so far.  I'm not inclined to remove this hedge as it takes us through the summer and Russell still looks weak.

    • CAT – The cat came back from a $6,000 net loss last month and I still like it but I can't imagine why it's in the STP and not the LTP.  I think it's because we thought we'd need to watch it closely and make adjustments.  
    • DXD – New addition and taking a huge hit so far.  I think I feel better about leaving the July calls over the weekend – we already cashed 1/2 out at $1 so I'd rather hope for $1+ ($10,000) than take $4,800 now.  Again, these are hedges we EXPECT TO LOSE money on – it's just a question of how much and, if we make money – that's a pleasant surprise.  

    • MJ – Very disappointing so far but I still like it.
    • SQQQ – As noted above, we cashed out a huge winner and flipped to a long-term hedge but that won't pay much on a short-term move, which is why I left those July DXDs open.  I like the concept of selling short-term calls but 2020 is too far away so let's sell 50 Sept $43 calls for $3.50 ($17,500) and put a stop on the short Jan $48 calls (now $4.80) at $5.50 ($27,500) and hopefully they both go worthless but, if not, we spend $10,000 net for the roll and we have a very manageable amount of shorter-term short calls left.  

    • TZA – Here we're super-aggressive but I think it's too much so let's shut it down while we have a nice profit.

    UGA – We were right on target but it all fell off a cliff since.  If we aren't recovering by Friday, I think we should give up on this one

    You would think we would need more changes but we were super-aggressive and we can get more aggressive again IF we fail those support lines but, if not – then cashing TZA is a good move.


  26. Lebow/Tommy – I was just wondering, not expecting.

    TEVA/QC – And don't forget the opioid lawsuits.

    PLAY/Palotay – Thanks for the reminder, we already have 10 short 2012 $45 puts in the LTP that we sold for $7.80 back in December.  They are $920 now.   PLAY guided lower but still $100M in profits and $40 is $1.45Bn in market cap so I still like them and our net is $37.20 so we don't care about the dip.   

    For the LTP, we have 10 short PLAY 2021 $45 puts (now $9.50) and I'd like to now buy 10 of the 2021 $35 calls for $11 and we won't sell calls yet as they may get downgrades or they may bounce and, if they bounce, we sell the $50 calls for more than the current $5 and if they go lower, we sell the $40 calls for around $7 and roll our $35s down to the $25s (now $17) with that money and we end up in the $25/40 spread, which I would love. 



  27. Talking for 2 hours is very exhausting!  

    So we're liking /CL long at $51 now, as long as /BZ stays over $60 and, if that's the case, then /RB over $1.68 is also a nice long but keep in mind we miserably failed this morning's attempts – so very risky still.

    The dollar came up a lot today so that's putting downward pressure on Oil and Gasoline:

    Trump said he thinks China will make a deal so a bit of a recovery from the lows.

    We missed /KC at $97 this morning.  




  28. Trump Asserts Executive Privilege on 2020 Census Documents




  29. Maine Becomes Eighth State to Legalize Assisted Suicide



  30. Russian Military Reports Cease-Fire in Syria







  31. It’s the Global Economy, Stupid!



  32. gootta love rent a rebel


  33. They came a week too late. Could have used them last week 


  34. Good morning! 

    Better late than never for Rent-A-Rebel.  Had to be something to lift oil prices – this was the quick way.




  35. 36 Hours in Oxford


  36. Tankers Attacked Again in Gulf of Oman, Raising Fears of Wider Conflict


  37. POLITICO Playbook: Trump gives the impeachment crowd a gift