OK, so let’s see if I can actually bring myself to shut down the portfolios. We’ll start with the Hemp Boca Portfolio as it’s small and I should go on the show this afternoon (haven’t decided yet).
Hemp Boca Portfolio Review: This portfolio is not as constrained as Money Talk as there’s a show every Tuesday and I can go on when I want (PSW Investments owns 20% of Hemp Boca). We started back on May 21st so it’s 4 months old and we’re up 8.2% but we were down about 20% at one point (same positions) so I’m not sure I want to risk Q4 in such a small and new portfolio.
The question is, as it will be with EVERY position in EVERY portfolio this month – do we, right now, want to be in this position if the market drops 20%?
- IMAX – Worst case is owning IMAX for $20 and I’m generally fine with that but you have to keep in mind it’s a $50,000 portfolio with $100,000 in ordinary buying power (we’re assuming not IB as those guys are crazy!). It’s a conservative position that’s in the money and we should have good support at $21 and $20.50 held on the last dip so hard to kill – especially as I expect Q4 to be huge box office for IMAX. Max possible on the spread is $4,000 and now net $2,325 so $1,675 (72%) left to gain by Jan seems like one we should keep. Damn it! This is hard…
- M – We are ahead so we’re going to kill it. Not actually ahead, down $900 on the overall position but too risky for the small portfolio in an uncertain market.
- MJ – Back to the lows on this one but I want to stick with them.
- TAP – Had a nice pop and we’re on track at net $7,500 out of a potential $20,000 but, if we spend $3,200 to buy back the short puts, we reduce our risk and still have a $20,000 spread – it only increases our net cost from $4,750 to $7,750 but, since that will make us net $10,700 (no more short puts to subtract), then we’re in the spread for a very good price without so much downside risk and we still have $9,300 (87%) upside potential.
- THC – We just added these and they blasted higher and we have a 20% cushion to STILL be in the money – what’s not to love? The net is now $3,762 out of a potential $7,000 so $3,238 (86%) left to gain – another keeper.
Well, that went terribly. It’s very hard to shut down good positions. At least I feel less risky without those high Macy’s puts and the big TAP obligation. If all goes well, we have $14,213 of upside potential that we’re confident in plus whatever MJ makes and we’re up $4,110 already and $18,313 would be 36.6% over 2 years in a $50,000 portfolio we started 4 months ago – that’s not a bad start!
Best of all, we are still mainly in CASH!!! so we can DD on any or all of our positions if the market does turn lower.