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Monday Market Movement

We have a Trade Deal – now what?

Now there is going to be more pressure on the numbers, going forward, to show us genuine improvement and every Corporate Profit miss can't be excused by "tariff issues" but, other than that, life goes on.  Over the weekend, the US and China offially agreed to "Phase 1" of a trade deal but there are still 25% tariffs on $250Bn in Chinese goods and China hasn't cut tariffs on our goods at all.  Trump agreed to cut tariffs on $150Bn worth of Chinese goods from 15% to 7.5%, giving up $9Bn of his $77.5Bn tariff slush fund – as I predicted, Trump would not let that money go as he needs it to win the 2020 election.

Not only that but none of this actually goes into force until February so, for now, nothing at all has actually happened other than the US delaying the additional tariffs that were threatened to begin on the 15th.  As noted by the WSJ: "Neither government submitted a full text or even a detailed summary of the deal, hamstringing efforts to determine the winners and losers in the world’s two biggest economies or the quality of the agreement."

Chinese negotiators struck a more cautious tone. At a hastily arranged press conference at the main propaganda department in central Beijing, senior Chinese economy officials didn’t disclose much detail, except to confirm that both sides had reached an agreement in principle.

Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen, one of China’s lead negotiators, said the U.S. had agreed to remove the remaining tariffs on Chinese products “in stages.” Mr. Lighthizer said there was no such agreement on that, and suggested China believes further reductions could be negotiated in later phases of the deal.

Overall, does this really seem like something that should be driving the markets to record highs?  We expected to see 3,300 on the S&P following a Trade Deal with China but since then, our expectations have been lowered and now traders are acting like this partial deal deserves the same sort of boost of market confidence that a full deal would have brought.  That's obviously ridiculous when you think about it and, very clearly, traders are not thinking about it

The last Options Expiration of the Decade happens on Friday and we also get yet another estimate (the 3rd) of 3rd Quarter GDP, which has been hovering at an anemic 2%.   3 Fed speakers tomorrow (Kaplan, Williams and Rosengren) but then just Evans on Wednesday and we're done with those jokers for the week.  Other than that, we'll have the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, PMI, Housing, Industrial Production, Philly Fed, Leading Indicators, Personal Income & Outlays, the KC Fed and Corporate Profits – so lots of fund data that still gets to use tariffs as an excuse for disappointing.

We also have some significant companies reporting earnings this week – so let's not be complacent as FDX, MU, GIS, DRI, NKE and KMX are all potential market-movers:

Image

KMX has blasted higher since our pick on Sept 23rd, when we felt $85 was way too low and it became our first official new bullish call after closing out our Member Portfolios the week before.  At the time, our trade idea was:

You can sell the 2022 $70 puts for $8 and that's net $62 – I think that's very reasonable and, in the LTP, I would sell 5 for $4,000 and then see how things play out but we have no LTP at the moment – so we'll just see how it goes.

We'll see how the earnings go but it's up a lot faster than we thoght so earnings might relatively disappoint on Friday but still very confident $70 will hold up over the long run.  

 


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  1. Good Morning!


  2. Copying from Friday's chat:

    Phil, when you get a chance, can you give me your thoughts on how best to adjust my CMG short play.  I have the following:

    -4 January 2020 $760 Calls (basis of $54, currently $62,55)

    -2 January 2021 $540 Puts (basis of $23, currently $15)

    +4 2021 $700/800 BCS (Basis of $40, currently $60)

    I had a couple other short puts that I ended up closing out, and these short $760 calls had been rolled up from lower strikes.  Currently showing a $4k loss YTD.  I was up $5-6k a month ago, but I didn't think they would rocket back like this.

    Right now I can roll the January calls to March $790's or June $830's for about even.  I'd like to get into a better theta burn position, since there is very little premium left in my Jan $760's.  I'm also wondering if you would recommend adjusting the bull call spread.  

    Thanks!


  3. Palotay,

    Question on CMG you got a 4x Jan 21 BCS why did you sell 4x the 4!!!!! call?


  4. That is the Jan 20 4 x short caller to make it clear.


  5. Sorry, busy morning already!


  6. Good morning!

    Still lots of enthusiasm driving the market as Asia and Europe were closed while all the good trade news came out of Friday so they are playing catch-up and we are now catching up to their catch-up – could take a while to subside…

    CMG/Palotay – Well, you have $16,000 coming to you on the 2021 spread if you leave it alone and you are up $1,600 on the short puts and you are down $3,240 on the short calls so not really in trouble at all, right?  2021 $800s are $140 and the $700s are $200.  June $850 calls are $54 but what's not clear here is your bias.  I assume from the 4 short it's a bit bearish and I agree with that so my suggestion would be:

    • Roll 2 short 2021 $540 puts at $15.50 ($3,600) to 2 short 2022 $600 puts at $42 ($8,400) 
    • Roll 4 short Jan $760 calls at $62.50 ($25,000) to 3 short June $800 puts at $80 ($24,000) 

    That's net $3,800 in pocket and it should be a nice reduction in margin and all you are doing is committing to buy CMG for 10% more on the short put sale and pushing the short calls into 80% premium while reducing them by 25%.  A good trade-off and, if CMG fails the $800 line – you can always sell another short call for more cash.

    28,300, 3,200, 8,600 and 1,650 – if we get a breakdown on two of those lines, we can damned well short the other 2 until any of them cross back over but, if not – I wouldn't dare short this rally.


  7. Phil / All / TLRA

    interested in anyone’s thoughts on Telaria ?

    Thanks !


  8. AAPL – All-time high.

    Have been playing it much too conservatively.  Left a lot of money on the table 

    My bad !


  9. Apologies, my bias is short on CMG.  I was following you earlier in the year when you had the huge short position in the STP.  Thanks for the help.  


  10. Phil, 

    Maybe you skipped over or did not see it as you were working on a new day…..but please bear with the request….

    Phil, 

    Your trade idea for BA now that the board is meeting on the 737 MAX production go – no go….wait for the down grade police, sell a 230-250 Put? Thanks as always - 2 or 3 contracts to start with.


  11. albo/AAPL   

    double bad for me.  its a core holding but I  was /am way underinvested with options 










  12. A problem in our times:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/nyu-professor-scott-galloway-conflating-luck-talent-dangerous-2019-12

    Conflating luck and talent is dangerous. As I get older, I'm struck by how big a part luck played in my life, and how much I mistook it for skill, well into my forties. The Pareto principle shows that even if competence is evenly distributed, 80% of effects stem from 20% of the causes.

    Not recognizing your blessings feeds into the dark side of capitalism and meritocracy: the notion that success is a choice, and that those who haven't achieved success are not unlucky, but unworthy. This leads to regressive policies that further reward the perceived winners and punish the perceived losers based on income level. [...]

    When we are threatened, we are also less empathic. Altruistic behavior decreases in times of greater income inequality. The rich are more generous in times of lesser inequality and less generous when inequality grows more extreme. When the poor need our help more, we are less likely to offer it, because we don't see the poor as one of us. They become "them." 


  13. Winston – I mentioned that I was going to start some examples of setups running the ThinkBack feature in ToS to give members some insights in your systems (as well as Yodi's). I actually did some testing during the weekend and I quickly ran into issues trying to figure out how you would adapt to some situation. For example, if the underlying stock moves 10 to 20% in one month! Your monthly strangle/straddle can take a big hit. You mention that you can add more short puts, not short calls. Not sure how you adjust the position then. One example was build around QCOM starting in Dec 2017. In 2018 it moved from 60 to 48 back to 72 and then to 48 again. Selling premium without increasing positions as you roll is challenging I think. This has been something that Phil deals with in the butterfly portfolio where we need to adjust the position size (long and short) when dealing with these swings. So I assume that you need stocks that are in a more defined channel for the system to work best. 


  14. Slow day again today!


  15. Phil, etc,

    Any news explaining why ULTA is down 4% (to support of sorts @ 250) last two days albeit very light volume?

    Thanks


  16. stjeanluc

    what trade were you using lookback to analyze for possible adjustments?


  17. Trades / Edroo – Trying to replicate Winston setup of a synthetic and selling straddes/strangles every month. But in this case, the moves were a bit too much.


  18. Comment content omitted because it is too long.


  19. TLRA/Potter – I like the valuation as PSW Investments has a similar company called Engaging Choice and we're losing a LOT less money than Telaria does!  So clearly I think it's a good model   TLRA specializes in CTV while Engaging Choice is more of and App and Web model but both are huge growth areas.  TLRA is growing top-line at about 20% and may break-even next year but it will be quite a while before they grow into the current valuation, maybe 2022 – not something I'd like to wait for.  Of course, we are waiting on that with Engaging Choice but we own 10% of that company – so worth it!  

    If they crash back to $5, they get interesting.  If you REALLY want to own, for example, 2,000 shares at $8 ($16,000), you can sell 10 of the July (as far as they go) $7.50 puts for $1.35 ($1,350) which is 8.5% of $16,000 even if you never end up owning the shares or net $6.15 for your first 1,000 and then you can work your way into a $5 position on 2,000 easily.  So very little downside (again, assuming you'd be thrilled to own 2,000 shares at $5) and you get paid $1,350 while you wait.  

    AAPL/Albo – Moving up fast for a $1.3Tn (now) company.  Where does the money come from, I wonder?

    Aramco too – now at $2Tn but they only sold $25Bn (1.25%) worth of stock so the valuation is a complete joke – especially as it was mostly bought up by friendlies who aren't selling so the float is minuscule and it's likely to really collapse when they announce a secondary.  

    CMG/Palotay – That's what I thought. 

    BA/Jasu – Any time I pass your comment, always feel free to re-ask.  I do my best to get to every one in order but I do miss them sometimes.  As to BA, they may be about to scrap 737 Max production for most of next year so I wouldn't go near them.  Heck, they are down 3% today.

    This is now a board decision, where they have to decide what's best for the long-term health of the company and – if the Max problem were easy to fix – they would have done it by now as there is certainly no amount of money they wouldn't have rather spent than to scrap production but, as I said when this started:

    BA/Yodi – I believe I said $300 is where I want in so still waiting patiently.  Good lesson in how long it takes these things to play out:

    BA/Yodi – Right you are, we did sell 10 $280 puts in the LTP, got a good price ($21) and I certainly don't mind net $259 if assigned.  I was hoping for $300 to establish a long spread. 

    We took the money and ran in Sept, when BA popped back to $390 on false hopes but nothing has changed, the overall design of the plan is flawed and BA made it anyway with a "software fix" to cover it up.  It would be nice if they could just fix the wing design but then it wouldn't be so fuel efficient and a big change like that would be a nightmare anyway.  So, unless they drop at least another 10% – too risky for me, still.

    Best case for getting in is they scrap it and BA drops 20%.  They'll get their shit together, eventually, and giving up means we won't have any more nasty surprises going forward (assuming they've learned their lesson).  One forward concern I have is that Musk, Bezos and Branson are buying up all the good engineers.  There's a bit of a public interest in having some of those guys work on planes that are taken by over 1Bn people a year instead of rockets that will be ridden by hundreds…

    Slow/StJ – Christmas is right around the corner…


  20. ULTA/8800 – I don't follow them much but they are fairly priced at $250, $350 was silly.

    This is nice (10%) but not thrilling top-line growth and 5% progress on bottom-line not thrilling either:

    Year End 2nd Feb 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 TTM 2020E 2021E CAGR / Avg
    Total Revenue
    $m

    2,671 3,241 3,924 4,855 5,885 6,717 7,217 7,391 8,034 20.3%
    Operating Profit
    $m

    328 410 506 655 785 854 895     21.1%
    Net Profit
    $m

    203 257 320 410 555 659 698 696 734 26.6%
    EPS Reported
    $

    3.15 3.98 4.98 6.52 9.58 10.9 11.9     28.3%
    EPS Normalised
    $

    3.15 3.98 4.98 6.52 9.58 10.9 11.9 12.0 13.1 28.3%
    EPS Growth
    %

    +17.4 +26.5 +25.1 +30.9 +46.9 +14.3 +4.54 +9.54 +9.39  
    PE Ratio
    x

              23.2 21.3 21.1 19.3  
    PEG
     

              2.43 2.24 2.25 1.89  
     

    $250/share is $14Bn so 20x current and future earnings for a retailer is actually pretty good in this environment.  


  21. Phil,

    Thx for the detailed eval of ULTA. They seem to be a one stop shop for both lower and higher priced cosmetics according to my 'supervisor'. 235/240 strikes seems like reasonable short put position levels.


  22. Phil, 

    On BA……will wait until the dust settles! Thank you for a detailed analysis.


  23. StJl – thanks for testing. I need stocks that respect their channel. The price of the front month straddle gives me an indication of likely volatility of the stock – well over 10% of the stock price and I know to be careful. 

    Call side large moves are no problem – roll short term short call up and out to create a BCS with the LEAP long call (after 4 months have not needed to do that – not even close).

    Put side large down moves – I take a leaf out of Phil's playbook – as I only pick stocks where I would love to own the stock then I view this as part of the strategy :) . I'm happy to double down on the short puts to get out of 'trouble'.

    It's amazing how over 3-4 month periods many so called extreme moves correct themselves as the stock price reverts to the mean. For the front month straddles/strangles it just means cautiously rolling and not being too concerned of being ITM for a short period.

    These are the current list of tickers that I have applied the setup to:

    AMGN, BX, CAT, CSCO, DAL, GILD, GOLD, HBI, IBM, IRBT, LB,  PII, PM, STT, SYY, TFC, THC, TSN, USB, WBA, WDC, XOM.

    A lot of volatility in WDC and IBM – no issue after 3-4 months with short premium selling. Big up moves in PII, STT, THC, I have some ITM short calls out in April / May – but because of monthly rolling for credits I'm not too far behind the callers. 

    The wonderful thing about being non-directional on the front month sales is that I always have one winner from the straddle/strangles – that makes me a winner every month – sounds naive but it does wonders for the soul. And gives premium firepower for the adjustments.

    Thanks again for working on the backtesting.


  24. Phil – What’s your take on homebuilders sentiment is at its highest since 1999? Low rates? Thanks!


  25. Phil/aapl

    I have managed to,stay long since Jan. With stock as well as 2020 and 2021 $150/200, 200/250 and 220/270 spreads

    Now, the hard part is determining how much more upside s left in the stock.

    If I give them a 20 multiple with at best, 2-5% growth in wearables, services, and $13-15 in earnings in 2020, then I should hang on for the ride to $300. This price could easily be reached in the next few weeks, if we extrapolate the rise since Jan 2019. (However, your elegent ‘husbands’ chart comes to mind with extrapolation). At SOME point, aapl has to stop going up daily without much pause.

    Would appreciate thoughts.


  26. Phil/aapl

    I know the wearables growth is considerable. However, the wearables growth is not going to keep pace with iPhone sales being flat/down with total growth around 3-5% in EPS? Too conservative?


  27. You're welcome Jasu, 8800.

    Mean reversion/Winston – That's the crux of the strategy.  Pick long-term value stocks, wait for them to go on sale and then ride out the storm.  Worst case is we end up "stuck with them" at low prices for the long term.  Just be careful with big-ticket stocks as it's harder to "worst case draw an income" if they fall too far below the target range.

    If AMGN ($244) falls 40% to $150ish, I don't really want to sell $150 calls or even $150 puts as it's hard to DD at those prices – especially as you move to a 4x position.  

    HBI, on the other hand, is $14.65 and if they dropped 40% to $9ish, even if I only got $1.30 (the price of the 2022 $20s) for the $15 calls, that's still 15% back on my stock while I wait and 10% back on my original investment on just the call side – I can afford to be patient with that.  

    That's why I tend to favor lower-priced stocks – unless the high-priced stock is rock-solid like AAPL.  Even 400 shares of a $350 stock run you up to $140,000 very fast and, realistically, we have no fun at all starting with 1 contract on anything – so I try not to tie the portfolios up with too many of those.

    Homebuilders/1020 – Well I was pounding the table on HOV all year but now they've blasted off and I'm not really sure who's cheap.  Not too many people I really like in the sector.  I suppose TOL would be my 2nd choice as $39.81 is still just $5.6Bn and they are good for at least $500M to the bottom line 

    Financial Summary
    Year End 31st Oct 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E CAGR / Avg
    Total Revenue
    $m

    3,912 4,171 5,170 5,815 7,143 7,224 7,271 7,612 13.1%
    Operating Profit
    $m

    397 447 492 647 786 681     11.4%
    Net Profit
    $m

    340 363 382 535 748 590 553 605 11.7%
    EPS Reported
    $

    1.84 1.97 2.18 3.17 4.62 4.03     17.0%
    EPS Normalised
    $

    1.75 1.93 2.13 3.13 4.54 4.24 3.93 4.36 19.4%
    EPS Growth
    %

    +93.2 +10.2 +10.6 +47.1 +44.9 -6.56 -7.47 +11.1  
    PE Ratio
    x

              9.36 10.1 9.11  
    PEG
     

                0.911    
     

    As a new play on TOL, for the STP let's:

    • Sell 10 TOL 2022 $35 puts for $4 ($4,000)
    • Buy 15 TOL 2022 $33 calls for $10.50 ($15,750)
    • Sell 15 TOL 2022 $40 calls for $6.50 ($9,750) 

    That's net $2,000 on the $10,500 spread that's 99% in the money to start!  Upside potential is $8,500 (425%) if TOL just holds the $40 line for 2 years and, of course, we can sell 5 (1/3) short-term calls like the March $40s ($2.10) and pick up $1,000/qtr against our $2,000 outlay, so many ways to win.

    AAPL/Maya – They are dropping $60Bn now so $1.2Tn very fair.  Credit card will be big for them and will also boost Apple Pay and then that leads to more watch sales (which 5G will also boost one day) and now they have streaming that they'll eventually figure out which boosts Apple TV sales and then there's going to be more of a Smart Home Market and a Smart Car Market and then there will be Robots – of course (what brand of robot will you trust to watch your kids?) – lots of room to grow….

    Image result for apple robot

    Image result for most trusted brands apple consumer


  28. PHIL,  You posted a Jan 22 BA 300/350 trade  with a $25 entry not terribly long ago.  Do your comments above mean that you are suggesting an exit?  Thanks.


  29. BA/Phil, Jasu, et al.

    Phil, in your recent recap of BA, you left out two very recent posts.
    One from October 22, 2019. (https://www.philstockworld.com/2019/10/22/toppy-tuesday-sp-back-to-3000-again/).

    One from October 29th, 2019 at 4:07 pm (https://www.philstockworld.com/2019/10/29/tempting-tuesday-introducing-our-dividend-portfolio/).

    Both of the recommendations, (included below) seemed like good ideas
    to me, so I made the bets, though with smaller numbers of contracts.
    I have 2 of the 2022 330/430 bull call spreads, and
    I have 3 of the 2022 300/350 bull call spreads.
    I also sold a single 2022 320 put.

    I could use some advice about what to do now, if anything. Thanks again!

    —-
    From the first (Oct 22, 2019) you suggested:
    …we can still play for an eventual recovery with a Bull Call Options Spread as the first trade in our new Earnings Portfolio:

      .  Buy 5 BA 2022 $300 calls for $72.50 ($36,250)
      .  Sell 5 BA 2022 $350 calls for $50 ($25,000)

    —-
    From the other (Oct 29, 2019) you wrote:

    Now that the BA testimony is over, possibly Trade of the Year:

    . Buy 10 BA 2022 $330 calls for $69 ($69,000)
    . Sell 10 BA 2022 $430 calls for $32 ($32,000)
    . Sell 5 BA 2022 $320 calls for $50 ($25,000)

    [my (Saguaro) note:
      I’m pretty sure he meant puts not calls for the third bullet. My edit:
      Sell 5 BA 2022 $320 calls for $50 ($25,000) ==> Sell 5 BA 2022 $320 PUTS for $50 ($25,000)]

    That's net $12,000 on the $100,000 spread that's a little in the money to start.  Once BA is up at $400, we could even do some call selling to wash away the $12,000.


  30. BA/John, Sag - That's right, it is in our Earnings portfolio from the 10/22 Morning Report at about even at the moment, we were nicely ahead but it faded now that new issues have come up and it's back to about where we went in on 10/22.  I did mean the puts and those are still the ones I'd sell (2022 $320 puts, now $50.74) if BA tanks and we have to roll the 2022 $300 calls (now $67.50) down to the $250 calls (now $97.50) but it's not net $25 yet so no reason to jump on anything so far.  


  31. Thanks Winston! I like doing these backtesting exercises because you can learn a lot from mistakes made on paper before you make them with real money. I am a bit busy today but I will post sometimes this week some information on that QCOM experiment I did. I created a Google sheet with prices that could be modified to show the moves.


  32. BA/Sag – Sorry, lost the question in the middle.  Either way, we need to wait for BA vote and then see how people take it.  As I said, I think it would be good if they simply scrap it and start again but that will crash the stock.  I like the $300/350 way better than the $330/430 – too greedy!   The $330s are $52 and the $430s are $21 so net $31 can't be too bad though – I can't imagine you paid much more than that.  The $300/350 spread is $67.25/43.50 ($23.75) so still up from our entry.  

    The reason I went for the lower, tighter spread is exactly to avoid what you are stressing about now, the Deltas of the $300/350 spread are 0.63/0.49 so 0.14 so a $10 drop in BA costs us $1.40 or about 5% of the spread cost – not a big deal and we can wait out a dip.  The $330/430 spread is 0.55/0.29 so net 0.26 – pretty much double which means great pain if BA moves against you and you are always as likely to see a 20% drop as a 20% pop – especially over 2 years so I'd rather have twice as many of the more conservative spreads than mess around with the more volatile $100 spread (which is also much harder to hit as BA has to be $80 (25%) higher to get a pay-off. 


  33. Thanks, Phil! 


  34. Phil//  I have contact Greg about the new round of investors for the PSW portfolio and I haven't heard back from him yet.  Any idea when this new fund is going to be started and what we need to do to get qualified to be able to invest in it?

    Thanks.


  35. New Fund/Rookie – We will be taking on investors for PSW Investments or, specifically, our Thailand Hemp Farm Project at the moment.  As the Cannabis Fund is not yet ready – it won't be participating in this round so we're focusing on what's happening now and we'll deal with the Cannabis Fund in 2020.

    You have to be a qualified investor, which I believe means you need over $1M in assets and THEN you can get information from Greg at Philstockworld dot com (for any who are interested).  Minimums will be $100K for these projects though we expect a single large investor to take the Thailand Spot in the very near future – as I'm off to Thailand next week!  

    For PSW Investments, the Thailand Project is huge as we own 20% of Hemp Boca and 16.5% of New Age who are partnering WITH PSW Investments to help set up a Hemp Farming industry in Thailand, working with the Government.  

    The investing opportunity is for the first Lite Manufacturing Farm we (the above-mentioned Thailand Group and our Thai partners) are setting up to produce both Hemp and Cannabis.  If all goes well, we will be doing 24 of these LMFs throughout Thailand to service the CBD/THC needs of their NHS (National HealthCare), who we have a 3-year contract with.  

    Very exciting stuff! 


  36. Phil, When you have some time, would you please explain why the fed is pumping so much liquidity into the wall street houses in the trillions , but the market is showing new highs. Seems to me some one is liquidating huge dark pools, leaving the moms and pops holding the bag. Some sanity from you would help me understand the Pam Marteen articles appearing on this site. Thank you in advance, as always 


  37. Jasu/Martens – we had some educational conversations here a few weeks ago about the repo situation, as I likewise did not understand it. So Phil and a couple of others chimed in and explained what was going on at that moment. It's strange, agreed.


  38. snow, yes confusing and scary; Another 2.95 trillion in the next 2 weeks; seems like the suckers are being set  up again….something in just not right…..not a word on CNBC, or NY times or Bloomberg!


  39. Fed/Jasu – A lot of experts are saying nothing to worry about but I'm a bit worried.  They said it would only be temporary and now they've doubled it 3 months later and the Fed is now buying 40% of the bonds at auction as well – that's massive QE – doesn't seem like what they'd be doing in a strong market.  

    Well that was a very fast start to the week – today flew by for me.  

    Weak finish from the indexes though but La Ti Da…..