Archive for 2019

Innovators, Imitators, Or Idiots – X Marks The Spot In Investing

Courtesy of Jamie Catherwood,

Sunken Treasures

X Marks The Spot

First come the innovators, who see opportunities that others don’t. Then come the imitators, who copy what the innovators have done. And then come the idiots, whose avarice undoes the very innovations they are trying to use to get rich.”— Warren Buffet

A great deal of investing comes down to a process of identifying innovators, scrutinizing imitators, and screening out idiots.

This principle is applicable to everything from stock-picking to assessing management teams. Nowhere, however, is the concept more prevalent than in venture capital.

Every day, VC firms in Silicon Valley and beyond are inundated with pitches from startups touting innovative products and groundbreaking technology. Therefore, the clear determinant of a VC firm’s success lies in their ability to locate genius in a sea of mediocrity.

The obvious difficulty of this endeavor is reflected in the breakdown of a VC firm’s expected returns. As industry veteran Fred Wilson summarized it:

“I’ve said many times on this blog that our target batting average is ‘1/3, 1/3, 1/3’, which means that we expect to lose our entire investment on 1/3 of our investments, we expect to get our money back (or maybe make a small return) on 1/3 of our investments, and we expect to generate the bulk of our returns on 1/3 of our investments.”?—?Fred Wilson

To put it much more crudely:

An already difficult process then becomes even harder after the wild success of a truly innovative company. For example, Uber’s dominance prompted an outbreak of “Uber for X” startups.

From a behavioral standpoint, it’s not easy for an investor to resist companies claiming to be the ‘Uber for X’ after witnessing Uber’s success.

To be clear, there have been successful imitators. Wag!, the “Uber for Dogs”, being a prime example.

However, for every imitator like Wag! and Lyft, there is a longer list of failed imitators. Cherry, for instance, was the “Uber for carwashes” that eventually closed up shop.

That said, even the successful imitators aren’t perfect… poor Fluffy.

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MSM Throws Fear-Mongering Tantrum After Trump Skips Dinner

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

President Trump bailed on the White House Correspondents Association Dinner Saturday night – instead heading to Wisconsin to deliver a fiery speech to a packed Green Bay arena. 

"There’s no place I’d rather be than right here in America’s heartland… and there’s no one I’d rather be with than you, the hardworking patriots that make our country run so well," said Trump. 

Meanwhile, a sad trombone could be heard whomp-whomping at the Trump-less WHCA dinner – where instead of the traditional comedian, association president Olivier Knox balled up his fists and gave a fear-mongering sermon about poor MSM reporters who Trump has endangered with his rhetoric. 

This sums up the WHCA dinner


"I don’t want to dwell on the president," said Knox. "This is not his dinner. It’s ours, and it should stay ours. But I do want to say this. In nearly 23 years as a reporter I’ve been physically assaulted by Republicans and Democrats, spat on, shoved, had crap thrown at me. I’ve been told I will never work in Washington again by both major parties." 

"And yet I still separate my career to before February 2017 and what came after," Know continued. "And February 2017 is when the president called us the enemy of the people. A few days later my son asked me, ‘Is Donald Trump going to put you in prison?” At the end of a family trip to Mexico he mused if the president tried to keep me out of the country, at least Uncle Josh is a good lawyer and will get you home"

"I’ve had to tell my family not to touch packages on our stoop," Knox bemoaned. "My name is on a statement criticizing the president for celebrating a congressman’s criminal assault on a reporter. I’ve had death threats, including one this week. Too many of us have. It shouldn’t need to be said in a room full of people who understand the power of words but fake news and enemies of the people are not punch lines, pet names or presidential. And we should reject politically expedient assaults on the men and women whose hard work makes it possible to hold the powerful to account." (h/t Grabien). 


MMT – Not Modern, Not About Money, & Not Really Much Of A Theory

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Charles Gave via EverGreen Gavekal blog,

“Ignoring MMT’s rising popularity would be about as smart (and effective) as a dog barking at the waves in the ocean.”

–KEVIN MUIR, author of the avant garde financial newsletter, The Macro Tourist

“I believe that all good things taken to an extreme become self-destructive and that everything must evolve or die. This is now true for capitalism.”

–RAY DALIO, founder of hedge fund behemoth, Bridgewater Associates


The final lap. It’s hard to believe that as recently as February, when I first brought up the concept of a new economic model that was poised to radically alter the world we’re living in, MMT was as obscure as an extra in an old Cecil B. DeMille bible film. Yet, a mere two months later, you have to try extremely hard to ignore Modern Monetary Theory and its swelling number of disciples.

Perhaps at this point, some of you who have read the three previous installments of our month-long series on MMT wish I’d never brought it your attention. You might even think it’s such a zany idea that it will never see the light of day. If so, you could be right—but I doubt it.

Prior issues of this series have made the point that ultra-low and, even, negative interest rates have led to a boom in asset prices at the expense of the real economy. This has created the most lop-sided income distortion since 1929.

Source: Grant Williams, TTMYGH (2/10/2019)

Even after 10 years of a long and sluggish expansion—which happily has driven unemployment down to 50-year lows--there is an unmistakable whiff of outrage in the air. The non-1% or, perhaps more accurately, the non-5%, are coming to believe they’ve been stiffed by the reality revealed in the above chart.

Perhaps that’s why a number of the uber-rich (with thousands more of those soon to be created when Uber goes public) are suggesting MMT as a viable solution to this seemingly intractable problem of secular stagnation (i.e., a long period of sub-par economic growth) and income/wealth…
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“Everyone Is Thinking It’s The Shanghai Accord All Over Again”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Back on January 9, when the S&P500 was just inches away from its Christmas Day bear market lows, we asked a simple question: is the Shanghai Accord 2.0 coming? Now, with the S&P back at all time highs, China unleashing a historic torrent of new credit after launching monetary and fiscal easing that shocked even the most cynical China skeptics and sent Chinese stocks soaring, and every central bank in the world reversing in the Fed's footsteps and scrambling to cut rates as the global race to the currency bottom entered what may be its final lap, we have the answer.

Or do we?

For those who are rightfully confused, because while there are countless similarities between the "2016 scenario" and current markets, there are also some very specific differences, here is a great recap of the similarities and differences, excerpted from the latest weekend note by One River asset management's CIO, Eric Peters:

Deja Vu

“Everyone’s thinking it’s 2016 all over again,” said the CIO. A global growth scare, equity weakness, dollar strength and commodity declines prompted central bankers to hash out the Shanghai accord in early 2016 that dramatically reversed these trends. “They’ve seen China ease this year, the Fed pivot, equities rebound,” he said. By late-April in 2016, the S&P 500 had jumped 17% from the Jan 2016 lows (this year it rallied +20%), and by late-April 2016, Chinese stocks rose +16% (this year +40%). “They’ve looked at this and said green light, risk on.”

“Pulling out the 2016 playbook, people piled into reflation trades,” continued the same CIO. “Short dollar trades, crap beats quality, dash for trash, EM equities and FX, commodities.” By late-April 2016, oil had surged +70% from the Jan 2016 lows (this year +50%), copper rallied +20% then (this year +18%). The dollar index had fallen -6% in 2016 (but this year DXY is up +1%), gold surged +23% (but this year flat). "The dollar and gold are saying 2019 is different from 2016, and if that’s right, people need to exit their reflation trades."

"China doesn’t appear to have the stomach for a massive stimulus above what they’ve already done,” said the CIO. “At
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A “Nightmare Come True”: Amazon Launches Freight Brokerage, Slashes Prices By 30%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In what is being called a "nightmare come true" for freight brokers and carriers, Amazon did what it traditionally does every time it enters a new market, and took its own digital freight brokerage platform live while undercutting prevailing market prices by 26% to 33% in the latest deflationary race to the pricing bottom in order to grab market share, according to FreightWaves.

Late last week, Morgan Stanley equities analyst Brian Nowak had predicted this was going to happen, stating: “We see AMZN’s 1-day Prime shipping raising consumer expectations and increasing the cost to compete in e-commerce. Over the long term, we also see this as a Trojan horse for Amazon to grow its next disruptive business… a third party logistics network.”

Amazon already has an extensive network of trucking carriers as it moves an enormous amount of freight across the country. Having their own third-party logistics network was just an obvious next step for the behemoth of a company that relies so much on shipping. The benefits are plentiful for Amazon: they get to hedge against the volatile price of trucking capacity and they get to expand their infrastructure, while turning part of their costs into revenue. Amazon is already a top 10 international freight forwarder for Asian ocean freight inbound to North America.

Amazon explained the company’s strategy by stating: “The advantages that then come from disintermediation and the monetization of those capabilities are secondary to the immediate need of self-preservation, but then serve to feed very critical needs of Amazon’s ability to continue to succeed. This innovation and growth then manifests as continuously evolving towards the ability to sell everything and anything that is or can be sold. That’s the true Amazon flywheel: disintermediate to survive; monetize to fund innovation; innovate to grow; disintermediate to survive…”

Amazon's entry into freight brokerage is an attempt to re-accelerate its top line, which has slowed from 30% annually three years ago to less than 15% this year. The company is trying to not allow trucking capacity to constrain its growth and, for now, it is coming in at price points that are far below market prices. This indicates that Amazon is not trying to realize enormous gross margins at first.…
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“Get Real!”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader,com,

The final phase of a bull cycle is the most deceiving. It is the time when things are at their best, optimism runs wild, equities can do no wrong and any warning signs are dismissed as equity price action valiantly defies the reality that is to come.

It is also a time when complacency makes a comeback as big rallies emerge following initial larger corrections. 2018 was a year of big corrections. 10% in February, 20% in Q4. Now a 25% rally. Not signs of a stable bull market. It is precisely the aggressive counter rallies near the end of cycles that can be the most awe-inspiring and reason defying, yet they can also be the most dangerous while being the best opportunities to sell at the same time.

Let’s get real: The liquidity machine can hide reality only for so long and that is: Things keep slowing down. Cycles don’t turn on a dime, they take time and that is what we are seeing unfold and the signs are plentiful. From Japanese industrial production going negative the past 3 months to home sales in the Hamptons slowing to the slowest level in 7 years.  I’m using these couple rather random examples to illustrate a point: The slowdown is as broad as it global:

Oh yes, even Friday’s Q1 GDP report reeked of deceit and the headline is hiding theslowdown in plain sight:

“The economy isn’t doing nearly as well as that 3.2% annual growth rate for gross domestic product reported Friday by the Commerce Department.

The heart of the real economy — private-sector consumption and investment — slowed sharply in the first quarter to a 1.3% annual rate, the slowest growth in nearly six years.

“On the outside, it looks like a shiny muscle car. Lift the hood, however, and you see a fragile one-cylinder engine.”

Consumer spending rose only 1.2% in the first quarter, after healthy 2.5% growth the previous

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Father, Brothers Of Sri Lankan Suicide Bombings Mastermind Killed By Police

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

More than a dozen suspected jihadis (and a few civilians) died during a fierce gun battle on Friday between Sri Lankan police and terror suspects as dozens of suspected ISIS-affiliated jihadis from domestic terror organizations National Thawheedh Jamaath and Jammiyathul Millathu Ibrahim were rounded up in a crackdown meant to stave off any additional terror attacks.

According to a Reuters report from Friday, among the 15 dead were the father and two brothers of the mastermind of last week's Easter Sunday bombings, which left 253 dead and another 500 injured. As we reported on Friday, a radical preacher named Zahran Hashim has been identified as the primary architect of the series of bombings at three churches and three luxury hotels. Hashim was a leader of the National Thawheedh Jamaath, and had been arrested over his involvement in the defacing of Buddhist statues. In a series of videos posted to YouTube, the radical Imam had called for violence against all non-believers.


Zahran Hashim

In one of these videos, Zainee Hashim, Rilwan Hashim and their father Mohamed Hashim, all of whom were killed by police, could be seen calling for war against nonbelievers. The attack occurred when police raided a suspect terrorist hideout on Sri Lanka's east coast not far from one of the bombings in Batticaloa.

A family member confirmed to Sri Lankan police the identities of Hashim's brothers and fathers. As comments from Hashim's sister that circulated in the press suggest, not all of his family members shared his extreme, violent views.

"Even if he is my brother, I cannot accept this. I don't care about him any more," his sister said.

Nearly 10,000 soldiers have been deployed across the island to hunt down members of the Islamist groups who carried out the attacks. Police have already detained more than 100 people, including foreigners from Syria and Egypt, in the wake of the bombings.

In one of the videos that circulated online, Rilwan Hashim can bee heard calling for jihad and the deaths of non-believers.

"We will destroy these non-believers to protect this land and therefore we need to do jihad," Rilwan

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$20 Trillion Later… Where Did All The Money Go?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Emad Mostaque of Three Body Capital

What keeps us up at night?

One question keeps us up at night. Where did all that new money go? Accounting for US$20tn of central bank liquidity is by no means easy, but we have a hunch about where an outsized re-allocation of capital might have landed.

Private markets.

Coincidental with the post crisis ‘recovery’ was a material shift in the market’s perception of private equity and venture capital. What was previously a secluded corner of finance, restricted to the mahogany paneled offices of Blackstone and KKR, became THE destination for the cool kids of finance. Hedge funds were out. Private Equity was in. This trend perfectly coincided with the meteoric rise of the tech startup in the popular imagination. While central bank balance sheets ballooned, an esoteric asset class combining PE and VC was lifted on the tide.

Based on data from Preqin dating from 2012-2018, the industry hit peak private equity mania in 2016, with a whopping 1,936 PE funds closing their rounds that year, raising a total of US$487bn in funds. In 2018, the average assets raised per fund is at an all time high of US$362m. While public markets were being distorted by QE, accelerated by ETFs and central bank buying (with the Bank of Japan owning Japanese Equities equivalent to 77.5% of Japan’s ETF market at last count), capital poured forth into private markets.

To better understand the extent of the mania in the PE/VC world as a result of the huge liquidity surplus created by the various forms of QE, consider the success of first-time PE and VC funds in raising assets without a track record. In 2018, 32 first-time PE managers raised a total of US$8.7bn. In the VC space, 2018 saw 58 first-time VC managers raising US$6bn, versus 51 managers raising US$4.1bn in 2017. On a per-fund basis, assets raised per fund increased from US$80m in 2017 to US$103m in 2018. 

A mountain in the road.

The PE/VC model offered the promise of lower volatility (thanks to lockups and the exclusion of retail investors), lower correlations and higher returns. In recent years, several factors…
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Beto O’Rourke: ‘Farm-To-Table Restaurants In Every Community’ Would Solve ‘Food Desert’ Crisis

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Beto O'Rourke has a solution to the problem of chronic poor nutrition in impoverished communities that is as tone deaf as it is hilarious.

During a Friday event hosted by the Nevada State Democratic Party at a local brewery in Henderson, a city outside of Las Vegas, the former Congressman called for the establishment of farm-to-table restaurants in every community to combat poor nutrition, according to the Washington Examiner.

For those who aren't familiar with the 'farm-to-table' movement, it can best be summed up as a pretentious 'sustainable' 'health-conscious' movement currently in vogue among wealthy urbanites. It involves serving meals using ingredients directly sourced from small sustainable farms. These meals are typically sold at outrageous prices.

As far as we know, most farm-to-table restaurants don't accept payment in food stamps.

Political reporters at the event couldn't help but laugh about the comment.

For context, the question that O'Rourke was attempting to answer involved how the federal farm bill could better address the problem of 'food deserts', that is, communities that lack supermarkets or grocery stores where fresh produce and other healthy foods can be purchased.

The gaffe comes as O'Rourke – formerly among the three frontrunners in early polling ahead of next year's Iowa Caucus – has seen his support wane as the media has moved on to its new presidential-it-boy-of-the-moment, South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

In a recent national poll of likely Democratic voters, O'Rourke came in fifth overall, behind Buttigieg and Kamala Harris.


The slide for O'Rourke has also been fueled by reports about how his wealthy father-in-law helped launch is political career, as well as lingering resentment from feminists about a remark made by O'Rourke during his campaign launch about how his wife, Amy, handles most of the child-care duties for the couple.

Fake Growth? Exploring The Big Mystery In Friday’s GDP Report

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

We have become accustomed to the miraculous economic data 'surprises' that are propagandized out of China month after month – not too hot, not too cold, but just right – but in the latest US GDP data, as MarketWatch's Greg Robb investigates, mystery theater comes to American government data…

It is a case that would make Sherlock Holmes proud.

Growth in the first quarter smashed expectations, fueled in part by strong inventory building. According to the government, $32 billion of goods were added to inventories this quarter, or $128 billion annualized.

This stockpiling of goods boosted first-quarter GDP growth by about 70 basis points and helped propel growth to a 3.2% annual rate, well above forecasts.

The problem is that it is not at all obvious where these inventories came from. Goods have to come from somewhere, either produced by domestic firms or imported from abroad.

The mystery is that both production and imports fell in the first three months of the year, according to government data.

“You can’t stockpile what you do not import or do not produce,” said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics.

The Fed reported last week that industrial output slipped at a 0.3% annual rate in the first quarter.

And the government’s GDP report estimates that imports fell 3.7% in the first three months of the year.

The one other explanation — that consumption fell sharply enough to leave businesses with unexpected unsold goods — also doesn’t fit the evidence, Brusca said.

Consumption did not fall faster than industrial production or imports to generate any surplus, he said. To be sure, spending on consumer durable goods fell 5.3%, the biggest drop in 10 years. Business spending on equipment was also weak.

“Any way you slice it, this GDP report…is an apparent mess,” he said.

One possible culprit is Boeing, which could have some unsold 737 Max 7 airplanes. But these have a list price of $100 million. That doesn’t account for $32 billion in inventories.

Another possibility is that the government
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Zero Hedge

Trash Wars: Duterte Orders Tons Of Garbage Shipped Back To Canada Or Dumped In Territorial Waters

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Outspoken Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has ordered that containers carrying trash from Canada should be shipped back to the country. It is the latest chapter in a disagreement over more than 100 containers of trash that were shipped to the Philippines between 2013 and 2014, illegally, by a Canadian company. 

Canada had previously agreed to take the trash back, but has been slow in making arrangements for its return. Duterte threatened to leave the trash in Canadian waters if Ottawa refuses to take it back, according to Salvador Panelo...

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Phil's Favorites

Animal Spirits: The Absence of Stuff


Animal Spirits: The Absence of Stuff

Courtesy of 

Mention Animal Spirits to receive 20% off from YCharts (*New YCharts users only)

Stories Discussed

Best graduation ever


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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...

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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!

Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!

Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Insider Scoop

55 Biggest Movers From Yesterday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Obalon Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OBLN) shares jumped 233.3 percent to close at $1.30 on Wednesday after the company reported expanded data from a large scale commercial use study that was presented at the Digestive Disease Week.
  • Ascent Capital Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASCMA) shares jumped 51.4 percent to close at $1.37 after the company announced a restructuring support agreement with Monitronics International.
  • Valeritas Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: VLRX) shares dippe... more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


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More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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