Archive for 2019

Peso Spikes In Early Asia Trading After US-Mexico Migration Deal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The Mexican peso is up around 1.5% in early Asia trading, reacting to the after-hours news of a 'deal' between US and Mexico over the migration crisis.

For now, the post-Trump drop has not been entirely erased (while stocks have soared well above that dip)…

Perhaps, as Goldman warned, it is because the tariffs issues “not dead, just dormant” and could be resumed if Mexico doesn’t enforce the agreement, situation at the border changes or amid upcoming U.S. elections.

Goldman Sachs chief Latin America economist Alberto Ramos notes in a report this weekend that avoiding tariffs and an eventual escalation of frictions with the U.S. is a “net positive outcome for markets, but not a free lunch or risk-free proposition for Mexico,” as Mexico's budget is "increasingly tight."

Ramos adds that concessions made by the Mexican authorities “could also be politically costly for President Lopez Obrador, whose political support base is not particularly engaged on Central America asylum and migration to the U.S. issues.”





Wall Street’s Most Bearish Analyst: “The Risk That I Am Right Is Playing Out”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Morgan Stanley's "Sunday Start", authord by Dominic Wilson, the bank's head of US equity research and the man who has been often called the most bearish analyst on Wall Street.

In last week’s Sunday Start, our Chief Economist and Global Head of Economics Chetan Ahya did a great job of laying out the case for not underestimating the potential impact of escalating trade tensions. While investors may be overly optimistic about a resolution, it’s not due to a lack of attention. The problem is that it’s hard to predict the outcome, given all the possible permutations.

I’ve been focused on another development that’s easier to analyze and may be more relevant for US equity and credit markets in the near term. The macro and micro economic data continue to deteriorate. Core durable goods orders for April remained weak. Capital spending has also disappointed, and our US economics team now forecasts 2Q investment to grow just 0.2%Q saar. April manufacturing PMI fell off sharply, led by new orders, with another fall in May in the headline number. US freight shipments have been soft all year, likely reflecting bloated inventories and weaker demand. To that point, 1Q retail company earnings came in weaker than feared, taking the average retail stock back near the December lows. Finally, as we discussed in our last Sunday Start, the key to any economic cycle is employment, and Thursday’s ADP results were very soft, as was Friday’s non-farm payroll number. This raises the risk of my core view playing out that companies will do whatever it takes to protect margins, and while labor is the last lever they pull, they will use it if they need to.

The capital spending slowdown doesn’t surprise me, given last year’s boom. It’s right in line with our call for 2019 to be a year of payback due to the excesses in capex and inventory build last year. Many investors seem eager to blame the aforementioned weaker data points on the re-escalation of US-China trade tensions. Unfortunately, most of them preceded the early May pick-up in trade tensions. The economy was…
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Why Some Americans Won’t Move, Even For A Higher Salary

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Richard Florida via NextGov.com,

A new study identifies powerful psychological factors that connect people to places, and mean more to them than money…

Mobility in the United States has fallen to record lows. In 1985, nearly 20 percent of Americans had changed their residence within the preceding 12 months, but by 2018, fewer than ten percent had. That’s the lowest level since 1948, when the Census Bureau first started tracking mobility.

The decline in Americans’ mobility has been staggering, as the chart below shows. Mobility rates have fallen for nearly every group, across age, gender, income, homeownership status, and marital status.

Declining mobility contributes to a host of economic and social issues: less economic dynamism, lower rates of innovation, and lower productivity. By locking people into place, it exacerbates inequality by limiting the economic opportunities for workers.

Long-run trends in geographic migration in the United States

Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Data from US Census Bureau Current Population Survey (CPS). Mover rate measures share of U.S. residents age 1 and older whose place of residence in March was different from their place of residence one year earlier.

A wide range of explanations have been offered to account for these substantial declines in mobility. Many consider the culprit to be the economic crisis, which locked people into declining-value homes; others attribute it to the huge differential in the housing prices in expensive cities. Some economists contend that job opportunities have become similar across places, meaning people are less likely to move for work; others see rising student debt as a key factor that has kept young Americans in their parents’ basements.

Now, a new study from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggests that other, more emotional and psychological factors may be at work. The study uses data from the bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations to examine the degree to which people’s attachment to their communities affects their willingness and ability to move. To get at this, they use data from the survey (which covers a monthly panel of 1,300 respondents and is nationally representative) to…
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Ginsburg Predicts Sharp Division Within Supreme Court

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A very alive Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg suggested on Friday that while the Supreme Court has had a relatively low rate of divisions among Supreme Court justices will hold, and that more than a quarter of the court's remaining 27 rules will be decided by a single vote, according to Bloomberg

Speaking before the annual conference of federal judges in New York, Ginsburg suggested that more than a quarter of the court’s remaining 27 rulings will be decided by a single vote. Of the 43 argued cases settled so far, 11 were by a vote of either 5-4 or 5-3, she said. -Bloomberg

"Given the number of most-watched cases still unannounced, I cannot predict that the relatively low sharp divisions ratio will hold," said the 86-year-old justice, according to copies of her remarks provided by the USSC on Friday. 

The highest court in the land is scheduled to finish its nine-month session at the end of this month – the first since conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh joined the court. 

Ginsberg referred to both the census and gerrymandering cases in her remarks – the former of which will determine whether Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross can include a citizenship question on the 2020 census. She likened it to the court's decision last year to uphold President Trump's travel ban. 

The travel ban ruling “granted great deference to the executive,” Ginsburg said. Opponents of the citizenship question “have argued that a ruling in Secretary Ross’s favor would stretch deference beyond the breaking point.” -Bloomberg

As for the gerrymandering cases, they will resolve whether voting maps can be challenged as so partisan that they violate the constitution, according to the report. 

"However one comes out on the legal issues, partisan gerrymandering unsettles the fundamental premise that people elect their representatives, not vice versa," said Ginsburg. 





Bill Maher Slams Social Justice Warriors: “They’re Only Interested In Clicks, Not Justice”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

On his Friday episode of "Real Time", HBO's liberal host Bill Maher took a shot at "social justice warriors", arguing that many of them were not motivated by social change, but rather by a need to increase their audience on social media. 

"Sometimes they go too far," Maher said, leading his guests into a debate about the movie "Black Panther" and why he felt it couldn't be criticized. 

Maher said: “Here’s what’s wrong with social justice warriors: They’re not interested in justice. They’re interested in clicks. They’re interested in getting clicks. Oh please, you don’t think so?”

Naturally, New York Times columnist Charles Blow pushed back on Maher, defending social justice warriors and claiming they had genuine interests in improving society. 

Maher then continued, criticizing Golden State Warriors player Draymond Green for stating that NBA owners shouldn't be called "owners" anymore. "But, people own things…" Maher argues exasperatedly. 

(Video via Breitbart)





A “Gusher Of Red Ink” For US Shale

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

Oil prices are off more about 20 percent in the last two weeks on growing fears of a brewing economic recession. Commodities of all types have been hammered by the pessimism.

“Fear of global economic growth slowing,” said Peter Kiernan, lead energy analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), according to Reuters, “afflicting the entire energy complex with worries that demand growth will be bearish this year.” Prices for coal, natural gas and LNG, and crude oil have plunged.

“The continued escalation in trade tensions and broad-based fall in manufacturing…suggest that the downside risks to growth are becoming more prominent,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note.

Yet another downturn could not come at a worse time for U.S. shale drillers, who have struggled to turn a profit. Time and again, shale executives have promised that profitability is right around the corner. Years of budget-busting drilling has succeeded in bringing a tidal wave of oil online, but a corresponding wave of profits has never materialized.

Heading into 2019, the industry promised to stake out a renewed focus on capital discipline and shareholder returns. But that vow is now in danger of becoming yet another in a long line of unmet goals.

“Another quarter, another gusher of red ink,” the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, along with the Sightline Institute, wrote in a joint report on the first quarter earnings of the shale industry.

The report studied 29 North American shale companies and found a combined $2.5 billion in negative free cash flow in the first quarter. That was a deterioration from the $2.1 billion in negative cash flow from the fourth quarter of 2018. “This dismal cash flow performance came despite a 16 percent quarter-over-quarter decline in capital expenditures,” the report’s authors concluded.

They argue that the consistent failure for the sector as a whole to generate positive free cash flow amounts to an indictment of the entire business model. Sure, a few companies here and there are profitable, but more broadly the industry is falling short. The “sector as a whole consistently fails to produce enough…
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“Last Fight For Hong Kong”: Over 1 Million March In Protests Against China Extradition Bill

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Over 1 million Hong-kongers (according to the organizers; 240K according to the police), or one in seven, flooded Hong Kong’s streets on Sunday to oppose a proposed extradition bill that would allow Beijing to take people from Hong Kong to stand trial in mainland China.

According to the SCMP, it was the most unified protest march in the city in more than a decade, with some calling it the ultimate showdown over the bill, which goes to a vote on June 12 and if passed would allow the transfer of fugitives to jurisdictions.

If turnout numbers are accurate, it would represent the biggest protest since 2003, when 500,000 people demonstrated against national security legislation that was later withdrawn by the government.  The sea of marchers set off from Victoria Park just before 3pm and streets in nearby Causeway Bay were soon brought to a standstill as protesters clad in white chanted and sang songs as they walked in the oppressive heat, according to the SCMP.

Tensions escalated in recent weeks as Hongkongers from all walks of life have spoken out against the proposal. Petitions against the bill have circulated, thousands of lawyers staged a silent march and several chambers of commerce have voiced concerns. The bill's proponents, mostly the city's administration, see it as vital tool to fight transnational crime and maintain the rule of law.

“This is the last fight for Hong Kong,” the WSJ quoted Martin Lee, a veteran opposition leader who founded the city’s Democratic Party. "The proposal is the most dangerous threat to our freedoms and way of life since the handover" of sovereignty, he said.

The massive turnout, with crowds filling public…
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Is The “Sellable Rally” Done?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Is The Sellable Rally Done?

In last weeks missive, I noted the oversold condition of the market and the likelihood of a bounce:

“This week we are going to look at the recent sell-off and the potential for a short-term ‘sellable’ rally to rebalance portfolio risks into.

The markets only need some mildly positive news at this point to spur a ‘short-covering’ rally. I would encourage you to use it to reduce risk, rebalance holdings, and raise cash until the ‘trade war smoke’ clears.” 

The market did indeed rally last week. While the initial sell-off in the market was attributed to potential tariffs on Mexico, which were indefinitely suspended on Friday, the real reason was the dismal employment report of just 75,000 jobs. 

“The economy added only 75,000 jobs in May, about 100,000 fewer than expected, a sign that the slowing that is showing up in other parts of the economy is now affecting the job market.” – CNBC

A couple of months ago, I warned of the potential for weaker employment as the “household” survey had already dropped sharply. It is likely, that without some major natural disasters which spurred a temporary bump in hiring in 2018, that official employment rates are going to play catchup. 

If we just use a simple 12-month moving average of the non-seasonally adjusted data, we get a better picture about what is actually happening in the economy. (NOTE: the official BLS measure consistently OVERSTATES employment during expansions and plays catchup during recessions.)

“So, why are the markets rallying?” 

Two words – Rate. Cuts.

With employment weakening, along with a wide swath of economic data, stocks rallied sharply on Friday as the bond market priced in a certainty of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. 

“Stocks initially sold off on the report but then moved higher as the market took the news as a sign the Fed would cut interest rates. In the Treasury market, yields, already in steep decline this week, fell further. The 2-year yield closely reflects expectations for Fed


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Dying Inmate Admits To Killing 93 Women; Would Be Most Prolific Serial Killer In US History

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A Texas prosecutor on Friday said that investigators have linked a 79-year-old California inmate to more than 60 killings in 14 states dating back to the 1970s, which would make him the most prolific serial killer in US history according to AP

The inmate, Samuel Little, claims he killed more than 93 women as he traversed the country living a nomadic lifestyle. He is currently serving life sentences for killing three Los Angeles-area women, and pleaded guilty last year to killing a Texas woman in 1994. Now in failing health and having exhausted his appeals, Little is cooperating with investigators. 

"At this point in his life I think he’s determined to make sure that his victims are found," said Ector County District Attorney, Bobby Bland, who added that investigators from around the country have traveled to interrogate him in prison about cold case killings. 

Among those who spoke to him were investigators from Ohio, where Little grew up and where he’s suspected of killing at least five women. -AP

When Little went on trial in 2014, prosecutors said he was likely responsible for at least 40 murders since 1980, and were probing deaths in Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio and Texas. At the time, however, Little did not cooperate

Bland credits a Texas Ranger named James Holland with gaining Little's trust and convincing him to confess. 

Holland traveled to California last year to speak with Little about cold cases in Texas. That led Little to be extradited to Texas and his guilty plea in December in the 1994 strangulation death of Denise Christie Brothers in the West Texas city of Odessa. But Holland’s conversations with Little have continued, even after Little was returned to California to serve his sentences, and it was Holland who determined that he was responsible for 93 deaths, said Bland, who received an update from Holland this week.

Information provided to Holland was relayed to law enforcement agencies in several states, leading to a revolving door of investigators who traveled to California to corroborate decades-old deaths. -AP

On Friday, prosecutors announced charges against Little for the 1981…
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Boeing, Obama, A Gold Watch, And 346 Dead

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Russell Mokhiber via Counterpunch.org,

Democrats want to make Donald Trump the issue in 2020.

If they do, they will lose again, the way they lost in 2016.

Instead, the 2020 election should be about corporate power in all of its manifestations, its hold on the culture, our country and both major political parties.

Take the case of the two Boeing 737 Max 8 airplane crashes — the Lion Air crash off the coast of Jakarta, Indonesia in October 2018 that killed all 189 on board and the Ethiopian Airlines crash in March 2019 that killed all 157 on board.

During his time as President of the United States, Barack Obama promoted the sale of Boeing planes — including the 737 Max 8 planes — around the world.

In November 2011, in Bali, Indonesia, President Obama announced an agreement between Boeing and Lion Air.

“For the last several days I’ve been talking about how we have to make sure that we’ve got a presence in this region, that it can result directly in jobs at home,” Obama said.

“And what we see here — a multibillion-dollar deal between Lion Air — one of the fastest-growing airlines not just in the region, but in the world — and Boeing is going to result in over 100,000 jobs back in the United States of America, over a long period of time.”

“This represents the largest deal, if I’m not mistaken, that Boeing has ever done.  We are looking at over 200 planes that are going to be sold.”

In September 2014, Obama met with the Prime Minister of Ethiopia at the White House.

“We’re strong trading partners,” Obama said. “And most recently, Boeing has done a deal with Ethiopia, which will result in jobs here in the United States.”

“I’m expecting a gold watch from Boeing at the end of my presidency because I know I’m on the list of top salesmen at Boeing,” Obama said at an export forum at the White House in September 2013.

Of course, Obama got more than just a gold watch from Boeing when he left the White
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Insider Scoop

10 Stocks To Watch For November 12, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects D. R. Horton Inc (NYSE: DHI) to report quarterly earnings at $1.25 per share on revenue of $4.86 billion before the opening bell. D.R. Horton shares rose 1.3% to $53.31 in after-hours trading.
  • Analysts expect Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ: SWKS...


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Phil's Favorites

How To Spend $45,000 On A $27,000 Car

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock, MishTalk

As cars become more expensive, and trade-ins worth less and less, buyers go deeper in debt on new cars.

Please consider taking a $45,000 Loan for a $27,000 Ride.

Consumers, salespeople and lenders are treating cars a lot like houses during the last financial crisis: by piling on debt to such a degree that it often exceeds the car’s value. This phenomenon—referred t...



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Zero Hedge

How To Spend $45,000 On A $27,000 Car

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock, MishTalk

As cars become more expensive, and trade-ins worth less and less, buyers go deeper in debt on new cars.

Please consider taking a $45,000 Loan for a $27,000 Ride.

Consumers, salespeople and lenders are treating cars a lot like houses during the last financial crisis: by piling on debt to such a degree that it often exceeds the car’s value. This phenomenon—referred t...



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The Technical Traders

Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Investing - Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

This current market environment is very reminiscent of the 2006-08 market environment where price rotated into weakness on technicals and continued to establish new all-time price highs in the process – creating what we are calling a “zombie-land melt-up”.  This very dangerous price action is indicative of money chasing a falling trend.  Where technicals and fundamentals are suggesting that price is actually weakening quite substantial, yet the process of price exploration is continually biased towards the upside as investors continue to pile onto the back of the beast expecting a further melt-up.

Let’s take a look at what happened to the ES and Gold in 2006 an...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Indicator Sending Fresh Bearish Message, Says Joe Friday!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could the Gold/US Dollar ratio be sending a fresh concerning message to Gold bulls this week? Joe Friday says Yes!

This chart looks at the Gold/Dollar ratio over the past 8-years.

The intersection of two long-term channel met at (1) a few months ago. The ratio was testing the bottom of one as resistance and the top of another as resistance at the same time.

As the ratio was testing both channels as resistance, a sizeable bearish reversal pattern took place at (1).

Since the reversal pattern took place, the ratio has been heading lower.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; The ratio is breaking below...



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Digital Currencies

3 Reasons Why One Trader Didn't "Manipulate" Bitcoin Price To $20K

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin price highs in 2017 were not the result of a single trader on an exchange, the CEO of payment company Circle claims. In a series of tweets on Nov. 4, Jeremy Allaire disputed ...



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Chart School

Gold Gann and Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold has performed well, golden skies are here again. In fact it has been a straight line move, and this is typically unusual and a pause can be expected.

It seems the markets are happy again, new highs in the SP500, US 10 year interest rates look to re bound, negative interest may soften. The US FED has reversed their QT and now doing $250BN (not QE) repo. The main point is the FED has stopped QT, and will do QE forever. The evidence now is the FED put is under market risk and the possibility of excessive losses do not exist. 

Point: If in future if there is market risk, the FED will print it's way out of it.
Subject To: In this blog view. The above is so until the amount required rocks confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency.&n...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Today's Fed POMO TOMO FOMC Alphabet Soup Unspin

Courtesy of Lee Adler

But make no mistake, if the Fed wants money rates to stay down by another quarter, it will need to imagineer even more money.

That’s on top of the $281 billion it has already imagineered into existence since addressing its “one-off” repo market emergency on September 17. This came via  “Temporary” Repo Man Operations money, and $70.6 billion in Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) money.

By my calculations that averages out to $7.4 billion per business day. That works out to a monthly pace of $155 billion or so.

If they keep this up, it will be more than enough to absorb every penny of new Treasury supply. That supply had caused the system to run out of money in mid September.  This flood of paper had been inundati...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

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Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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