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Gold price: per ounce, calculator, news and analysis

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Fresh coronavirus fears boost the gold price

Feb. 13, 2020 Update: The flight to safety has begun a new as fears of the coronavirus have returned. Chinese health officials in Hubei province have changed the way they diagnose the illness, which has resulted in revised coronavirus numbers from the epicenter of the outbreak.

The number of new cases of the virus has increased sevenfold because of the change, reigniting concerns about the economic impact from it. The number of confirmed coronavirus cases increased 14,840, compared to an increase of only 1,638 the day before.

Chinese officials were requiring a positive lab test to confirm a patient as having the coronavirus. However, they have now expanded the definition to include a positive clinical test like via medical imaging. Data from a Hubei government website reveals that more than 13,000 of the new cases reported today in Hubei province were due to this loosening of the definition.

Other safe-haven assets, including the 10-year Treasury and the yen, all saw flows as sentiment shifted to risk-off. Edward Moya of OANDA also said some are concerned the trade war between the U.S. and China could flare up again if China fails to live up to its purchase commitments.

“Recession fears for China are likely to keep gold supported and wreak havoc with industrial metals,” he said in an email. “Copper prices are likely to fall under pressure and could remain stuck in at $5720-$5775 range until scientists are confident that the virus peak is nearing.”

Gold rises with equities

Feb. 10, 2020 Update: Gold prices ticked higher in morning trading today despite continued increases in the stock market. Fears about the coronavirus remain at the forefront of the markets today, supporting gold prices, although they aren’t quite serious enough to weigh on stocks yet.

Gold price

The yellow metal continued to move higher, although data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that large speculators slashed their bullish positioning 17%. This could be good news for the gold market, however. According to Kitco, one bank said the lower level of bullish positioning means gold prices are less vulnerable to a large downside decline, which would happen if all the speculators started dumping the previous metal at the same time.

Saxo Bank strategists warned in a report on Friday that stock investors are underpricing the coronavirus risk on the world’s economy. Thus, they say investors should be watching the commodity prices more closely because lower prices suggest a warning that the world’s economy could experience a significant disruption.

Feb 7, 2020 Update: Gold prices pulled back initially after the latest U.S. jobs report was released. The numbers were stronger than expected as non-farm payrolls climbed 225,000. An increase of only 160,000 had been expected going into the report.

Despite the strong jobs report, gold prices bounced during the afternoon hours, climbing to nearly $1,572 an ounce. The yellow metal found support as major U.S. stock indices sold off. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average were all in the red by Friday afternoon.

Macro data sinks gold

Equities may have been responding to the one negative part of the jobs report, which was the number of hours worked per week. At only 34.3 hours per week for the third month in a row, it’s clear that most Americans aren’t working a full 40-hour week.

Gold prices have also been supported by developments in the coronavirus situation. The number of new cases of the virus is slowing. However, gold is still a safe haven during the economic fallout that’s expected from the virus.

Feb. 6, 2020 Update: Gold prices rallied on Feb. 6, 2020 as fears about the coronavirus reemerged. RBC Wealth Management director George Gero said the yellow metal was supported by investors who were seeking bargains amid the pullback in gold prices, which coincided with soaring equity prices earlier this week. April gold climbed nearly $5 to $1,568 per ounce. Meanwhile the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed more than 120 points, and the March dollar index was up 0.027 of a point at 98.185, according to Kitco.

Disease and precious metals

According to Gero, gold can’t be counted out just because stocks and the dollar index are higher. He added that buyers are looking ahead to the rest of this year and expecting the gold price to rise, so they’re buying the yellow metal in preparation of higher prices. He also said other investors are hedging their bets with gold in case stocks tumble from their high levels this week.

Feb 3, 2020 Update: The gold price pulled back slightly on Feb. 3, 2020 as U.S. stocks rebounded. Equities shrugged off the World Health Organization’s decision to declare the coronavirus an international public health emergency.

Given the strength of the equity rally, it is a bit surprising that gold didn’t drop more than it did, however. The gold price continues to hover just under multi-year highs.

Analysts from ActivTrades noted that the yellow metal continues to hold above its current support level of $1,570 an ounce. They expect the gold price to rebound as soon as there is any sign of another correction in the equity markets. They expect a rally above $1,600 if the metal climbs above the resistance level at $1,585 an ounce.

JPMorgan on gold price drivers

JPMorgan analysts said in their report on Feb. 3, 2020 that demand for safe-haven assets and declining U.S. Treasury yields have supported the gold price. The market is also pricing in an increased probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in June.

Gold no longer has the benefit of the dispute between the U.S. and Iran to support it. JPMorgan analysts note that the yellow metal has been lagging Treasury yields recently, although they didn’t when the dispute with Iran was occurring. They said it seems as if gold’s valuation is normalizing against Treasury yields. The metal built up a $130 per ounce premium against Treasury yields last month, but the premium fell to approximately $94 an ounce.

Geopolitical concerns to drive bullion strength?

Worries about physical demand related to the coronavirus are also believed to be driving gold. The analysts say the price is probably discounting a significant hit on retail sales in Asia, which sees over 60% of the world’s demand for gold jewelry, coins and bars, including India.

Gold price


Gold prices did well in 2019 as problems and worries swirled, but analysts generally expect continued strength in the yellow metal in 2020. Credit Suisse analyst Fahad Tariq said he expects the price to average $1,540 per ounce this year, peaking at $1,560 per ounce in the first half of the year before falling gradually to $1,525 per ounce by the end of the year.

This article will focus on developments in the gold price in 2019 and 2020 and factors that have been affecting prices over the last couple years.

Gold price tracker

In mid-to-late January, gold was trading at $1,582 an ounce, compared to $1,517 at the beginning of the month. The current gold price is the highest it has been in the years following the financial crisis. A black swan event which is driving traders to the metal is the virus emerging out of China. While it is unclear how bad the outbreak of coronavirus is, it already starting to impact the economy. CNBC is reporting that automakers are evacuating workers from China due to the outbreak.

Federal Reserve is a factor

Early in January, The price of gold was at its highest levels since 2013 at $1,588 an ounce, before settling at $1,567.7 for a spot ounce at the time of this writing. What will come next? No one is sure, although analysts are now turning with favor to the precious metal as prices raise. Stay tuned for further updates and see below for some prior commentary on how gold price trading works.

Following the Fed’s decision in December, spot gold inched up to $1,478 per ounce. The central bank chose not to cut interest rates again largely due to better than expected consumer prices. Analysts at OCBC Bank told Reuters that the global economy appears to have stabilized after more than a year of uncertainty.

Paul Schatz of Heritage Capital told Yahoo Finance that gold will continue to rise in the 2020s. It could go up to $2,500 or $3,000 per ounce from current levels. It’s not just gold ETFs and institutional investors driving up demand for gold. Wealthy individuals are also hoarding physical gold.

Who is buying gold

A positive surprise in the U.S. consumer confidence index weighed on gold prices on Jan. 28, 2020. The U.S. Conference Board said the index climbed to a January reading of 131.6, compared to December’s reading of 128.2. Economists had been predicting a reading of 128.2 for January as well. January’s reading is the highest consumer confidence reading in five months.

Here’s a look at where gold prices have gone over the last 100 years, courtesy

Gold price per ounce chart

Live Gold spot price chart

Gold price by

Gold price outlook

The metal could face some challenges in 2020 if inflation goes up. Higher inflation could encourage the Fed to raise interest rates. The U.S.-China trade deal is still unpredictable, but a global economic stability could also hurt demand for safe haven precious metals such as gold. However, an analyst predicts that gold could jump to around $1,700 per ounce in the next 2-3 months.

Wolfe Research analysts John Roque and Rob Ginburg told investors in December that gold was “very overbought” in August-September, and it has corrected since then. Now it is set to make its next short-term move in January-February of 2020. The analysts predict the yellow metal could surge up to 15% in the next 75 days.

According to Wolfe Research, there have been seven “turns” in gold prices since 2015, and each time the metal has rallied around 15% over 75-80 days.

The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to keep rates unchanged following its meeting in December. The central bank also signaled that it’s unlikely to change the rates in 2020 amid low inflation. It is looking to change the interest rates once in 2021 and then in 2022. The Federal Reserve expects moderate economic growth in 2020.

What analysts are predicting

The gold price outlook for 2020 is not that clear. This is because there are mixed signals about the state of the U.S. and global economy. The U.S. job market remains resilient, and global equities continue to perform well. The S&P 500 is up nearly 25% this year. JPMorgan analyst Dubravko Lakos-Bujas expects the S&P 500 to rise 8% in 2020.

In the few months of 2019, there was a lot of noise about the inverted yield curve in the U.S. Historically, the yield curve inversion has been a sign of an impending slowdown. But private consumption remains robust in the U.S., showing the resilience of the world’s largest economy.

Leading European and Asian nations are planning to unleash fresh fiscal stimulus to counter the slowdown in trade, manufacturing, and consumption. The potential fiscal stimulus should help boost economic growth in the year ahead.

Iran and precious metals

Experts said the gold price would stagnate or go down as stocks soared; however, as of Jan. 6, 2020, this has not been the case. In just the last few days, geopolitical tensions have skyrocketed amid serious concerns about a potential conflict in Iraq and Iran. The assassination of General Soleimani (former head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard) even if well deserved, brought back memories of the disastrous invasion of Iraq in 2013. Investors have flooded into safe-haven assets such as gold and even cryptocurrency. Oil prices have also soared amid concerns over disruption to supplies.


hamiltonleen / Pixabay

Factors affecting performance

The U.S.-China trade tensions, federal rate cuts, easier monetary policies all over the world, and massive gold buying by central banks all ensured that gold had an impressive performance in 2019. With only a few weeks left in 2019, most investors had an optimistic gold price outlook for the next year.

More problems typically mean higher gold prices, but despite the positive economic signs we’ve been seeing, there are still a number of reasons to believe that investors will be rushing to the safety of gold and other haven assets. The U.S.-China trade war was the biggest reason behind gold’s rally in 2019, and it will likely remain the biggest driver.

Trade deal coming?

Two of the world’s largest economies have agreed to a partial accord, and the phase-one of the trade deal could be imminent. But President Donald Trump has warned that if the trade deal is not signed by Dec. 15, the U.S. could impose tariffs on more Chinese imports, escalating the already complicated trade tensions.

The U.S. presidential elections will have a direct impact on the trade war, and indirect on gold. President Trump has signaled that he could wait until after the Presidential election to sign the trade deal with China. Given President Trump’s mood swings, I wouldn’t even attempt to forecast anything about the trade war.

Another reason is that the U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained a dovish stance on rate cuts. A series of rate cuts this year have prompted investors to shift a portion of their assets to safe-haven investments such as gold. Analysts at UBS Securities and Goldman Sachs expect gold prices to surge to $1,600 in 2020. They have also warned that the yellow metal could settle at around $1,400 by the end of next year.

Gold demand

If the global economy witnesses a slowdown in 2020 as several analysts and economists have predicted, the Fed will lower rates further, the equity markets will decline, and gold will become a safe haven investors will rush to.

Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper told Bloomberg that the gold rally in 2019 was largely driven by the U.S.-China trade war and central banks purchasing massive amounts of bullion. But gold will get its next push from “retail investors as risks remain skewed to the upside.” Cooper expects gold to hover around $1,570 toward the end of 2020. A similar trend was seen in 2011 when retail demand drove gold to a record high of $1,921.17 per ounce.

Ken Lewis, CEO of OneGold, commented in January 2020 on using gold as a hedge:

“During times of economic unrest or uncertainty, the world turns to precious metals as a safe-haven asset. In the past, this hedge was only available to those with connections, portfolio managers, or access to large funds. New technology is leveling the playing field, giving retail customers quick, cost-effective access to this wealth preservation safety net.”

Gold price calculator

Jan 28, 2020: Added new introduction and updated the price tracker section.

Jan 29, 2020: Live gold prices calculator added.

The post Gold price: per ounce, calculator, news and analysis appeared first on ValueWalk.

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Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

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